DrumBeat: February 19, 2007
Posted by Leanan on February 19, 2007 - 10:19am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Proposed Dept. of Energy investments in nuclear vs. geothermal
As an energy source, geothermal shows a great deal more promise than nuclear. Yet nuclear is being lavished with government largesse while geothermal goes almost entirely ignored.
Preparing Nigerian cities for expensive oil
IN the next 20 years, the World’s cities will go through a fundamental transformation. Many including Nigeria will expand greatly in size and population, and still have to serve the basic mobility needs of their people in a world of much higher oil prices. In the second half of the 20th century, major cities began to emulate the transportation policies of the United States of America. Countries like Nigeria admired US automobiles and borrowed US highway design methods to reshape their cities around the automobile.
Fuel shortages, stark realities and present challenges (2)
The issue of vehicular pressure, in absolute terms, is very real and worrisome. Today, in Nigeria, the ambition of every young man or woman is to be a car owner. This is a legitimate desire though, as a result of poor development of reliable mass public transportation. The rail system in Nigeria which was developed by the colonial masters mainly for the evacuation of agricultural produce and minerals in the 20s has received unimaginable and scandalous neglect by successive Nigerian governments since independence in 1960. Same goes for the waterways and the airways in which basic and necessary facilities are poorly developed, rendering them ineffective for mass commuting from location to location. As a result, virtually all movements have to rely on land vehicles plying ill-developed roads.
Draft Law on Oil Money Moves to Iraqi Cabinet
A draft version of the long-awaited law that would govern the development of Iraqi oil fields and the distribution of oil revenues has been submitted to Iraq’s cabinet, the first step toward approving the legislation, two members of a senior negotiating committee said this weekend.
And Raed in the Middle has links to the Arabic text and English translations of the Iraqi oil law.
Bangladesh: At the mercy of climate change
It is more exposed than any other country to global warming. And a series of unusual events - from dying trees to freak weather - suggest its impact is already being felt.
The Second Oil Boom: To Avoid Replicating the First Experience
This suggests that the main challenge facing these countries will be maintaining control over public spending, since substantial and consistent increases in financial revenues lead to pressure on governments for more spending.It is worth noting that certain Gulf oil States, especially the GCC member States have learned valuable lessons from the first oil boom and are now exerting great efforts to control and improve the management of public spending, and direct oil revenues into three basic spending venues.
Rush for Cambodia’s oil begins
Cambodia has huge offshore oil fields whose expected worth far exceeds its current GDP. Experts fear that only the government, one of the most corrupt in the world, might benefit. An agreement with Thailand must still be worked out to develop fields in the Gulf of Thailand.
Consultation on carbon-storage risks to be launched
The Commission is launching an online public consultation on potential risks, particularly environmental, from new technology allowing CO2 emissions from power plants to be stored underground.
Official greenhouse gas figures hugely underestimate Britain's contribution to climate change, a report concludes.Christian Aid says adding in emissions from UK-funded operations in other countries would raise the UK's share of the global total from 2% to about 15%.
British companies wanted globalisation, it says, and must take responsibility for the associated emissions.
Expert doubts Pennsylvania can make renewable fuel
Gov. Ed Rendell wants to see Pennsylvania farmers grow enough crops to produce a billion gallons of renewable fuels each year to reduce the state's dependence on foreign oil.But the plan could die on the vine because there isn't enough farmland to produce grain for energy while also keeping up with agricultural needs, according to a local agriculture expert.
Sri Lanka: Better utilisation of Eppawala deposit for betterment of the country
With the energy crisis in the world, prices of phosphorus fertilisers are steadily increasing over the years resulting in increase in the cost of cultivation adding burdens to farmers and the Government.Being self sufficient in phosphate fertiliser is the only lasting solution for this.
A New Paradigm for Peace in Iraq
Much of the conflict among Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds in Iraq and the region is about control of oil. As recent analysis of the US-promoted Iraqi oil law has pointed out, the United States has claimed an outsized share of Iraq's oil wealth for US corporations. The factions in Iraq are fighting in effect over the leftovers from the US corporations' table. The United States can make a lucrative proposition to all parties: We will give up our claim on your oil and agree to simply buy it on the same terms as any other consumer if you establish among yourselves a long-term agreement on how to divide it equitably.
Political Heat: an interview with NASA scientist Drew Shindell
Press releases about global warming were watered down to the point where you wondered, Why would this capture anyone’s interest? Once when I issued a report predicting rapid warming in Antarctica, the press release ended up highlighting, in effect, that Antarctica has a climate.
If we can’t adequately reduce or sequester carbon emissions, are more-radical alternatives like orbital mirrors a solution to climate change?
Even for those as optimistic as Maugeri, the question of who controls the oil cannot be irrelevant. The U.S. state through threat, intimidation, and violence wants its ham fist on the spigot, allowing it to blackmail other countries. U.S. imperialism has exerted control over the Global South through the World Bank, the IMF, and the WTO. During the Cold War it used the threat of communist Russia and China to keep Europe and Japan under its “leadership.” It is now attempting to use terrorism in the same way, not altogether successfully as it is turning out since its invasions and occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq have failed to produce stable governments. Its actions have produced more terrorists and alienated most of the world. Seeking control over oil for leverage does not seem a far fetched stratagem for the oil soaked Bush-Cheney administration.
"Is individual mobility a good?" If so, it's axiomatic that it ought to be universally available. But if at present 15% of the world's people have 85% of the world's cars, and we're heating up inexorably, will we physically survive 30%, let alone 50% car ownership? Not even Jeremy Clarkson would defend that one. So roll on peak oil?
As the Arctic melts, vast deposits of oil and gas may be opened up for exploration. Will an Arctic without ice only prolong our dependence on fossil fuels?
Study sees harmful hunt for extra oil
All the world’s extra oil supply is likely to come from expensive and environmentally damaging unconventional sources within 15 years, according to a detailed study.
The two sectors that will prosper even with deflation and economic recession – biotech and aerospace
Biotechnology will finally solve the energy crisis. Crude oil and natural gas will finally be produced through cultivation, undersea assets – the miracle of biotechnology will bring prosperity.
Saudi Arabia's Nominal GDP Reaches SR1.30 Trillion in 2006
A correction in the stock market failed to have a major impact on Saudi Arabia's economic performance last year. Saudi Arabia's economy was in fact exceptionally sound and robust in 2006. After joining the World Trade Organization (WTO), Saudi Arabia embarked on the mammoth projects of economic cities which will have a long-lasting impact on the macro-economic policies and on the fundamental structure of the Saudi economy, according to a report received here from the Kuwait-based Global Investment House (Global) on Saudi Arabia's economic and strategic outlook.
University's prototype uses ocean's energy
A perpetual-motion machine is the stuff of fantasy, but clean, renewable energy sources are within the grasp of societies that marry science, industry and economics.
Fuel for nothing, drive for free
By transforming his $1,900 1984 Mercedes 300D into a greasemobile. Instead of diesel, Kinney's Benz runs on used vegetable oil, which he gets free of charge from a pizza joint and a diner.
3 Croatian workers kidnapped in Nigeria
Gunmen seized three Croatian workers in the latest kidnapping to hit Nigeria's unruly southern oil region, police said Monday.
Expert urges response to looming oil supply problems
An internationally recognised expert in energy market analysis and energy forecasting warns liquid fuel shortages, massive unemployment, high interest rates and severe recession are some of the impacts facing Australian supply chains and the broader community if governments and companies do not prepare now for the peaking and subsequent decline of world oil production.
Iraqi Sunni Lands Show New Oil and Gas Promise
In a remote patch of the Anbar desert just 20 miles from the Syrian border, a single blue pillar of flanges and valves sits atop an enormous deposit of oil and natural gas that would be routine in this petroleum-rich country except for one fact: this is Sunni territory.
Ruble May Gain as Putin Uses Oil, Gas to Lift Exports
The ruble rally shows no sign of abating as President Vladimir Putin continues to exploit Europe's dependence on Russian energy with a policy of ever-rising natural-gas prices."Russia has a big weapon in the form of energy," said Lars Rasmussen, an analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen who covers the former Soviet states. "They intend to use it to extract higher revenues from their neighbors. This is very positive for the ruble."
What tortillas tell about energy policy
A surge in U.S. ethanol production has led to a near-doubling of corn prices, so Mexican President Felipe Calderon recently put caps in place on the skyrocketing price of corn tortillas. This is economic nonsense, but it’s not the only economic nonsense involved.U.S. programs subsidizing ethanol production from corn are money down a rathole.
USAF tests synthetic fuel from coal, gas
With the wind chill making it seem like 40 below zero, Lt. Col. Daniel Millman said the Air Force picked the right place to test a new fuel.Millman, pilot of a B-52 bomber, helped test a synthetic fuel blend that could be made domestically from coal or natural gas as the Air Force seeks to wean its dependence on foreign crude and defray soaring fuel costs.
Americans Believe Global Warming Is Real, Want Action, But Not As A Priority
Most Americans believe global warming is real but a moderate and distant risk. While they strongly support policies like investing in renewable energy, higher fuel economy standards and international treaties, they strongly oppose carbon taxes on energy sources that put carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
Climate change: scientists warn it may be too late to save the ice caps
A critical meltdown of ice sheets and severe sea level rise could be inevitable because of global warming, the world's scientists are preparing to warn their governments. New studies of Greenland and Antarctica have forced a UN expert panel to conclude there is a 50% chance that widespread ice sheet loss "may no longer be avoided" because of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Cheap solar power poised to undercut oil and gas by half
Within five years, solar power will be cheap enough to compete with carbon-generated electricity, even in Britain, Scandinavia or upper Siberia. In a decade, the cost may have fallen so dramatically that solar cells could undercut oil, gas, coal and nuclear power by up to half. Technology is leaping ahead of a stale political debate about fossil fuels.
Big oil firms expand in unconventional oil sector
Major oil companies are playing a bigger role in the search for oil and gas from unconventional sources, consultants Wood Mackenzie said on Monday.
Someone at DailyKos is looking for scriptwriters, video editors, and researchers to help out on a peak oil documentary.
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Comments have been turned back on. For now.
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Call me paranoid, but I don't think that it is a coincidence that when I filtered out three posters from Dave's CERA thread, the number of comments dropped by 149, out of 241 (a 62% reduction).
Same result here. I suspected a very small number of individuals had hijacked this site and Greenman's script proved it. Now the question is what will the mavens at TOD-central do...
Moving on-topic... Leanan's link to the ice-sheet melting is very tough reading. Climate scientists have revised the probability of significant damage to 1 in 2. They are soft pedaling the time dimension for the moment, talking in terms of centuries, but the levels of sea-water rise are ominous. I live in Wisconsin, near Lake Michigan. So far the talk has been about coastal flooding, but it seems to me that the Great Lakes would be significantly impacted as well. Am I wrong?
The Great Lakes vary in level by a few feet over a span of decades (I grew up in Michigan). They are hundreds of feet above sea level, so direct impacts of sea level change should be minimal. There would be some amount of thermal expansion, but that might only be a millimeter or two. Changes in precipitation patterns could have a much larger affect.
As to the time dimension, science is a very conservative field. Nobody wants to risk his/her career on being the first one to predict a 50 foot sea level rise by 2050. So the observed pattern is that someone goes out on a limb and predicts a tiny rise over a century, then some other people agree, then someone says it might be an inch or two more, then someone else publishes a paper saying that it might happen by 2040, etc. The concensus advances and converges over time.
Plus, climate scientists are also people who live on this Earth, and this stuff scares the crap out of them.
Plus, climate scientists are also people who live on this Earth, and this stuff scares the crap out of them.
That's good. It scares the sh*t out of me. I have two children and, tough as it is, I've got them reading about P.O., about the GHG's. They are not happy campers. But somehow, someway, we've got to turn this beast around. Eating low on the food chain and peddling bicycles is good for the soul, (we are soulful) but it's not going to be enough. We've got to kick effort into gear.
By-the-by... thanks for that script. You rocked'em yesterday.
Hi, GreenMan. I have been hacking on your script; I hope you don't mind. You can find my version at http://stalkylittleboy.com/todban.user.js - please feel free to incorporate as many or few of the changes into your branch as you'd like. Changes are
I have been hacking on yours too!
http://graphoilogy.googlepages.com/todban.user.js
Changes:
* function "Show users" that open a new window containing a table with the list of posters along with their number of posts and their ban status.
* added TOD:Europe and TOD:Canada
Note: I'am not sure the "Manage Posts" function in the GreaseMonkey plugin is working properly. I suggest you to first remove the script and then restart Firefox before installing the new one.
I have kind of suspected that this is the direction that we are moving myself. There is no sense of urgency in the people - don't want to risk screwing up the economy, don't want to give up the car, can't live without the TV or AC, etc, etc.
I suppose it is depressing, but I guess I am resigned to it. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't try and reduce the amount of carbon we stick in the atmosphere - ultimately we have no choice.
The elevation of Lake Ontario is listed as 246 ft (75 m), so it's hard to see direct effects of even a substantial sea level rise. On the other hand, a substantial sea-level rise would change stream gradients and alter drainage behaviors.
IIRC, the Greenland icesheet has enough water to raise sea-levels by 23 feet, the East Anarctic sheet by 17 feet, and the WEST ANARCTIC BY OVER 200 FEET!!!! When you consider that a glacier doesn't actually need to melt, but rather may be "discharged" when enough melt water accumulates below to grease the skids, you have a conceivable scenario for relatively abrupt, catastrophic coastal flooding. I haven't heard any climate types actually model when an ice sheet (more likely segments) may discharge. I'd wager no one has a handle on it.
Aha... so the real threat isn't someone dropping an ICBM on us, they just plant one in the ice...
How did Tom Clancy miss this one???
Good heavens, do I sound THAT doomerish? Does someone need to give me a dope-slap?
FWIW, I don't think a nuke on ice has enough energy to melt enough water to make a difference. (No, I didn't run the numbers).
Your reply makes me a little queasy; after the recent flood of verbiage pollution likely intended to disrupt/misdirect/discredit TOD, such a flippant remark makes me worry about vandalism (of the thread). I'm not party to this level of discourse. I'll assume you were tongue-in-cheek.
No... you don't sound doomerish.
And no... I most definitely wasn't trying to take the thread into la-la land. Or start a sub-thread on WMD's etc... It was a poor joke. I am sorry.
That would make a good Clancy novel! The primitive types of A-bombs Iran and North Korea are striving for are big and heavy. The first H-bomb wasn't even a bomb, it was a building full of equipment. Assembling them in the middle of “Nowhere” Greenland would mean no pesky neighbors.
Of course, in reality moving all those men and equipment to the middle of the hostile environment of the ice sheet would be impractical. The extreme temperatures would adversely affect everything you did.
Now on the other hand, a half dozen hijacked Russian H-bombs.............
(Just kidding!)
"the East Anarctic sheet by 17 feet, and the WEST ANARCTIC BY OVER 200 FEET". I think you have these two the wrong way around. The West Antarctic ice sheet - the only one of the two which is in remote danger in the foreseeable future - is much the smaller of the two. The East sheet is very high, cold and climatically isolated. Just as well as it makes up most of the continent and is up to 3km thick.
Of course the big danger is the recent discoveries on Greenland of how meltwater percolates down and lubricates the flow at the ice/rock boundary. This was not taken into account in the IPCC report. The consequences for acceleration of melting are not understood, but having regard to the recent increases in measured melting rate, they do not look good. I would admit that I'm not a climate scientist, just a "general" environmental scientist, but I suspect from watching most news items and publications on these things that we are quietly passing some minor "tipping points" without even seeing them.
The scene in "An Inconvenient Truth" of the melted glacier water going into "holes in the ice sheet is my outstanding image of the film. It is obviously an opportunity for something very bad to happen very fast.
I think that the great lakes region will be a good place to whether the proverbial storm. Large reservoirs of fresh water, trade can continue with sailing craft and the climate will get nicer over time.
On the other hand, where I live (the deep south) climate change and peak oil may make the place unlivable. It's getting so hot an dry in the summer a garden dies without irrigation. Then there is the problem of the fire ants. Even with chemical pesticides we can barely keep them under control. My house is build on a slap so they keep coming up threw the floor.
Then there is the whole hurricane problem.......
On a positive note, if the icecaps melt, I will have beach front property.
...and the fire ants will drown.
It is just about impossible to drown fire ants. They come from a region that gets periodically flooded so have a natural adaptation to combat high water. If they weren't such deadly pests they would be really facinating. They link together and form a big raft. It's pretty interesting to watch.
http://bugguide.net/node/view/30113/bgpage?take2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_imported_fire_ant
I have vivid memories of a childhood visit to nana and grandad's house in Pensacola and crawling under a set of saw-horses to play in a nice sand pile with my Tonka toys. I ended up the tub with all of my clothes on.
I had been away from FL for a few years when some years back, I did some work on a mineral sands mine in North FL. The entire place was a sand pile and I had gotten out of the truck to look at something in the distance, without paying any attention to what I was standing in. BIG mistake.
Double Ouch!
A couple years back, a colony decided to move from the west side of the house, to the east side. They did the move at night, and used my living room as a highway. I always go bare foot inside the house and have insomnia........
I have come to really loath the little buggers. It is a constant battle to keep them out of the house. When peak oil hits everyone else will be hording food and fuel, but I will be hording pesticide!!!
If I remember my early '90s undergrad physical geography correctly we should expect lower levels in the Great Lakes as a result of Climate Change. The lakes are a glacial artifact, holding far more water by volume than the watershed/drainage basin warrants. Warmer overall air temps combined with lessened/sporadic rainfall patterns were cited as the reason for the lower lake levels. My rusty recollection says about 1m decline.
The Climate Change Digest used to have worthwhile information:
http://www.cics.uvic.ca/climate/change/ccd.htm
but is now quite dated.
The new site is down at present:
http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/
P
Warmer climate means much more evaporation and precipitation of all kinds, rain, snow, etc somewhere. Whether patterns will change, but nobody can guess to what extent.
I was watched an interesting show (PBS?) on global dimming an the slowing of “pan evaporation”. Evaporation rate have been slowing due to pollution.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming
The climate system is so complex and so interlinked, I'm afraid we are going to be completely blindsided by some obscure mechanism.
I'm afraid that's a bit of a mischaracterisation.
While evaporation rates used to be diminishing due to both upper atmosphere pollution and contrails, things are now changing.
Air is getting cleaner (of dimming pollutants).
If you combine this with the fact that due to PO, air traffic may diminish, that will diminish contrail levels as well.
If both of these happen, we run the risk of "double-whammy" as stated by a climate scientist in the document. It will increase the current global warming even more. Even the highest scenario IPCC calculations may be off by an order of magnitude or more.
I know there are already people out there thinking "sheesh! why don't we just burn the dirty coal and pump the air full of pollutants, to keep the dimming effect in full power."
Well guess what, that's exactly what we run the risk of doing with all the new coal capacity coming online in China, India and USA in the next 20 years.
But is this type of detrimental geoengineering a solution or is it a fix with it's own downsides?
That we already know from history. We need only look back to various places in 19th century Britain, 60's Germany, etc. to find out what the effects of this would be on a small scale.
Do the same on the global scale and all bets are off.
BTW, even though the document is speculative, I do recommend it to those interested in climate phenomena and gw.
I do agree with those who are of the opinion that we don't seem to have a single simple solution to PO+GW+plenty of "cheap & dirty" coal+required economic growth combo-dilemma.
Looking out the window I'd say Lake Michigan already has your one meter decline. Or it seems so. Don't know for sure if we're below '64 but it must be close.
Long term the Great Lakes are warmer, drier. There's little snow on the ground now, even well to the north. Some parts of Northern Wisconsin have bare ground. No Spring melt coming, lake levels certain to drop further. The Birkie seems very doubtful this weekend, That skiable snow is unreliable even up in the Lake Superior snowbelt tells much.
I have just installed greasemonkey and looked at the same thread, with precisely the same numeric results... 149 posts hidden. Interesting. (play spooky music)
And best wishes to the TOD administrative team on choosing/constructing a moderation system. Like some others, I believe the Slashdot moderating system has devolved into an enforcement system for the "group think" that pervades that forum. But Slashdot is a fantastic improvement over the wasteland it would be if unmoderated — with millions of readers, they'd be instantly overrun with trolls.
I'm sure moderation will be an ongoing challenge as readership expands. Being one of the D-listers, I'll shut up now and listen.
I personally think killfiles are best for a few reasons.
That said, I think killfiles integrated with Drupal would be better than a GreaseMonkey script, again for a few reasons.
Google shows things that claim to be killfile functionality for Drupal, but I haven't investigated much.
WT,
I installed the grease monkey filter but did not add names. It comes up when opening TOD with -0- comments blocked but there is no freddy, hothgor, or dmathews...did I miss something and where they included right up front? Thread after this is clean too.
Anyone know what is up? Don't get me wrong I like it very much. It feels like TOD of past. Thank you!
D
They were banned, and do not appear in today's DrumBeat. Check yesterday's to see the script go.
Hey thanks!
Interesting. Comments went away. Now they are back.
While reading Kelpie Wilson's "Virgin, the dynamo, and the prize" over at Energy Bulletin, I had a bit of an epiphany. One of my pet peeves had always been the predilection of certain techno-fixers to point out that a hunter-gatherer's bow or flint is technology, implying that because the hunter-gatherer uses technology then ALL technology is okay and should be embraced. I realized that it is not technology that is bad, but that certain technologies are far better than other technologies. If we were to rate technology by how much damage it causes, how much energy (particularly fossil sunshine) it uses, how many supplementary technologies which must be employed to clean up after said technology, giving those poorer scores than technologies that foster sustainability, then we would see that primitive technology is not only better technology, it is smarter, more elegant technology.
So, yes, flint-knapping is technology. It just happens to be far more advanced than rocket science.
Heinberg divided technology into 4 buckets based on levels of simplicity and need for external inputs. I don't have Powerdown in front of me, but he worried most about complex machines that required significant fossil fuel inputs and that we should try to lower complexity and the amount of energy inputs into machines and emphasize smart human labor instead. The examples of a power lawnmower versus a handpush mower or automobile versus a bicycle illustrate the point.
I agree but the examples of primitive technology you talk about won't scale. Flint-knapping implies hunting which won't sustain the world's population. In your comparison chart of technologies I would add a column called feasibility or practicality to score technologies in the context of the modern era.
Keithster,
Your point is well taken, re: flint knapping.
OTOH, _nothing_ will sustain the world's (current) human population. Leaving aside PO, there's not enough water, there's not enough land, there's not enough stuff.
If the name of the game is to sustain the world's human population at its current level, well, the game is over.
The real challenge is to figure out how the human species can downsize somewhat gracefully. C'mon people, we're supposed to be smart! Surely we can learn to live within our means?
But currently, we are way overshot.
When we have these conversations about technologies that can scale or be sustainable, I think we should all have a footnote as to our assumptions of the base population numbers.
Are we assuming 6 billion or 2 billion or what?
I think the art of jerryrigging things to work is going to be a handy skill. There is SOO much stuff that exists today, I wonder how long we can make some things work?
The things that give me a smile are things like Cuba running 55-57 Chevy's for decades. You want something fixed, they could jerryrig it.
Hate to say this...but I was kinda enjoying the Peace and Quiet. Taking a break to breath deep and clear the head.
For those who are interested:
If you run Firefox (on Linux, Mac, or Windows), I have written a Greasemonkey plugin which implements a killfile function for theoildrum.com. It operates on the client side to hide posts by users you add to your blacklist, and if you are logged into TOD it will also hide sub-threads of those posts.
Details and downloads available here: http://www.hovenweeptrading.com/gm/index.html
My plan is to place this little announcement in Drumbeat daily this week only. If people feel this is spamming or too off-topic, let me know and I will desist.