DrumBeat: February 23, 2007
Posted by Leanan on February 23, 2007 - 9:24am
Topic: Miscellaneous
The idea is that, although Bush was wrong to get us into this war, we are there and we cannot simply pull our troops out. If we do so, then Iraq will collapse into civil war and Iran could very well take over the whole country, including its oilfields.This seems plausible. But when you look closely at this argument, you will see that there is nothing to support it other than the delusion that the US is fighting the good fight. There were no terrorists in Iraq before we invaded the country. The so-called insurgency is in reality a resistance. This has been a war of conquest from the start. The US troops there must terrorize the Iraqis in order to maintain any sort of ascendancy. In so doing, they demoralize the Iraqis and themselves.
Pemex to Get More Budget Control Under Senate Bill
Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's state- run oil company, would gain more control over its budget and pay reduced taxes under a 10-part energy bill the Senate Energy Committee plans to approve.
DuPont teams on Iowa biofuel plant
DuPont Co. is licensing technology to a company that will build a cellulosic ethanol plant in Iowa within the next four to six years, company officials said Wednesday.
Farmland from Iowa to Argentina is rising faster in price than apartments in Manhattan and London for the first time in 30 years.Demand for corn used in ethanol increased the value of cropland 16 per cent in Indiana and 35 per cent in Idaho in 2006, government figures show. The price of a Soho loft appreciated only 12 per cent, while a pied-a-terre in Islington near London's financial district gained 11 per cent, according to realtors.
The world is in the midst of a great political transformation, in which climate change has moved to the center of national and global politics.
As earth warms, lawsuits mount
But problems arise when it comes time to pin down those responsible for climate change.
A Battle Over the Costs of Global Warming
The rest of us can usually ignore these spats, but once in a while there is an academic fight that really matters. The economics profession is engaged in one of those right now and, as luck would have it, it’s even more entertaining than most.
Southern Ocean Being "Strangled" by Greenhouse Gases
The pristine Southern Ocean, which swirls around the Antarctic and absorbs vast amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, is slowly losing a fight against industrial gases responsible for global warming, scientists say.
Turkey, Egypt try to avert tension over Cyprus oil
Oil reserves in the sea around the island of Cyprus have been estimated to be worth around $400 billion.Turkey had warned Greek Cyprus not to search for oil and gas in the area, where it says it also has legal rights and interests.
The Senate slaps sustainable ag
As a new farmer, I can't imagine a world without ATTRA, which stands for Appropriate Technology Transfer for Rural Areas. That's why my blood began to boil this morning when I found out that the Senate had voted to defund ATTRA's ultra-modest $2.5 million annual budget.
Higher renewable energy standard will create jobs
Raising the state's standards for electricity produced by renewable energy will create thousands of new jobs and increase Colorado's gross domestic product by nearly $2 billion, Gov. Bill Ritter said Thursday.
Podcast: Dmitry Orlov interview
University of Nevada professor demonstrates new hydrogen fuel system
Thanks to research done by a University of Nevada, Reno professor in the area of hydrogen energy generation, soaring power bills could become a thing of the past. And, finding a power source for your car that costs as little as $1 per gallon could also soon become a welcome reality.
Xcel Energy Study: with a Smart Grid, Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles Could Have System Benefits
The study found that PHEVs may result in a reduction of the overall expense of owning a vehicle and, with the help of smart-grid technologies, eliminate harmful vehicle emissions by up to 50 percen.
Media talk of ‘resource wars’ is one expression of the connections being created by the capitalist class as is all the talk of ‘peak oil’, ‘energy security’ and ‘over-population’. But no matter how sophisticated the propaganda is it cannot hide the devastating effects of climate change, especially its impact on the poor of the planet and sooner rather than later, the climate change chicken will come home to roost.Rather than be taken in by these myths as some on left have been, we have to articulate a vision of an alternate economy based on a rational and sustainable utilisation of resources, made all the more critical by the realisation that the major effect of climate change is going to be on the production of food and the impact rising sea levels is already having the millions people who live in low lying areas of the planet.
Community Solutions: Seeking local answers to a global issue
The use of oil permeates the fabric of American life. It fuels our transportation, heats our homes and businesses, provides us with plastics, fertilizers, pesticides and helps puts food on the table. If the oil supply dries up, what does that mean for our way of life? Grassroots groups across the country are calling for relocalization as a way to help secure the things that are essential to our daily lives — food, water, shelter, warmth — and to create a lifestyle that is sustainable and ensures a viable future for our children, using resources that are renewable.
Iran is not Iraq, except that it is. Most intelligent people today recognize that the U.S.A.'s adventures into Iraq were not about an evil dictator, or about democracy, it was about, as James Kunstler so eloquently puts it: "setting up a police station in Iraq." Not to steal their oil, but simply to insure world access to Iraqi oil.
We don't need to scratch our heads and wonder how responsive the oil industry will be to voluntary targets and public subsidies; it's never worked before. The only measure that produces real improvements in pollution and energy efficiency is firm standards backed by meaningful penalties.
Yankee Doodle's World Turned Upside Down
But the Saudis face their own inconvenient truths. Matthew Simmons, an industry banker, shocked the oil world when he questioned whether Saudi Arabia would be able to continue to expand production at the very same time that Wood Mackenzie, an Edinburgh-based oil industry consultancy, calculated that much of the future production expansion is likely to come from expensive and environmentally damaging unconventional sources within 15 years. If this projection holds up, the Saudis would need every dollar, euro, and riyal to maintain their currently all-too-lavish lifestyles. There won't be any left over in the Wahhabi cupboard to care for Mother Bandar's poor little Anbar doggies. That will only mean that We, the People of the United States of America, will be expected to foot the energy trough feed bill with our blood and our bounty, and we already aren't very thrilled with that prospect as it is currently configured.
James Howard Kunstler: "America, Think Downscale!"
In his book, “The Long Emergency,” Kunstler predicted that the age of the cheap oil economy is quickly passing, and that “globalism...will fizzle out.” One of its victims will be “suburbia.” Another victim, he added, and this brought cheers from the audience, will be that “warehouse on wheels--Wal-Mart.”
Ghana, Nigeria power talks in final phase
The Nigerian deal and another 100 megawatts expected from Ivory Coast would augment electricity supply to the country to ensure regular power supply during the highlights of Ghana’s Golden Jubilee celebrations on March 6.
My 48 minutes on the free Trolley are not particularly important, except that with global warming and "peak oil" fears approaching the boiling point, some Charlottesville area planners are considering creating a regional transit authority and possibly tearing up the Trolley route to run a modernized-- and environmentally friendly– electric streetcar down West Main Street.
California: Rolling Blackouts Likely by '09
A plan to discourage new power plants in Southern California's most polluted communities could lead to rolling blackouts in Riverside, city officials said.
California Senate Democrats Unveil “California First” Global Warming Bill Package
Saying that “Senate Democrats believe there is a simple, direct, cost-effective path we can take now to reduce greenhouse gases,” Senate President pro Tem Don Perata announced yesterday the introduction of a sweeping eight-bill package that aims to improve air quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in California in the most practical ways.
Oil Workers Evacuated from Accommodation Rig in North Sea
Total Norge is evacuating nearly 300 workers from an accommodation rig in the North Sea after two of the unit's twelve anchor chains broke during a storm with winds reaching near hurricane strength.
The President presumably would have us all believe that if Iraq had the world's second-largest supply of bananas instead of petroleum, American troops would still be there.Now comes new evidence of the big prize in Iraq that rarely gets mentioned at White House briefings.
Venezuela, Argentina to Issue Joint Bond
Venezuela and Argentina will offer a US$1.5 billion (euro1.1 billion) joint bond issue next week, the two countries said Wednesday.President Hugo Chavez said the "Bond of the South" will go on offer Monday. His Argentine counterpart Nestor Kirchner said the bond will have an "excellent" coupon rate.
Top Five US Cities for Cleantech
Since their launch in fall 2006, SustainLane.us has been growing in spades, building out an extensive resource base for government agencies and employees to share best practices in an open-source network....On Friday they released their newest piece of research: a rating and review of the nation's top five cities for cleantech development.
German Biodiesel Sales Slump on New Tax
Germany's once-booming biodiesel industry has reduced output by 30 to 40 percent so far this year as new biofuel taxes cut demand at fuel stations, biofuels industry association VDB said on Thursday.
Weekly Offshore Rig Review: Jackup Lovers
As we continue our ongoing examination of the offshore rig market, this week we will be looking at the companies that are contracting the largest competitive jackup fleets in the world. Looking at this information over the past year and into the future helps to paint a picture of which operators have been and will be the most active.
Nigerian Militant Group Claims Hostage Escaped
The Movement for Emancipation for Niger Delta (MEND) said in Lagos Thursday that a Lebanese hostage named Imad Saliba escaped from its custody Wednesday.
Peter Odell, one of the most astute, life-long observers of global oil scene, calls them "peak-oilers." Some of them were quite unhappy when I pointed out (in Energy at the Crossroads, in these pages, and in Worldwatch in January 2006) their propensity for wholesaling catastrophic scenarios of the world once the global oil production peaks and begins to decline. But how else can one label such writings as Richard C. Duncan's "Olduvai theory" according to which the declining oil extraction will plunge humanity into life comparable to that experienced by some of the first primitive hominids who inhabited that famous Kenyan gorge some 2.5 million years ago?
Nuclear plant's safety rating takes hit
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission on Thursday downgraded the safety rating of the nation's largest nuclear plant, subjecting it to a level of scrutiny shared by just one other plant in the nation.The NRC made the announcement following three years of problems in various safety systems at the Palo Verde nuclear plant west of Phoenix.
UK nuclear plans delayed until May
Ministers have confirmed that the government’s plans for new nuclear power stations are to be delayed after a High Court judge last week ordered Tony Blair to rethink his flagship energy reform.
Minnesota raises renewable energy goal
Minnesota has a new law that will require utilities to use wind, sun and cleaner-burning fuels to produce a quarter of the state's electricity by 2025, a standard that advocates called among the most aggressive in the country.
Peak oil. Heard about it?It is supposedly the biggest nightmare of our times - or, at least, it's going to be.
It's the point when the world's petroleum production maxes out and then starts declining. You know: beginning of the end of the world economy….
If that's not made you sit up and think, this will! Peak Oil will be circa 2011 AD. That's another five years from now.
EARLIER this month Germany's carmakers were hit by new emission limits proposed by the European Commission. There were howls of protest, not least from Angela Merkel, the German chancellor. So the proposed ceiling was raised a little, to 130 grams of CO2 per kilometre to be met by 2012. This still left the makers of many of the world's most prestigious cars with the most work: in the European Union only six German-made models meet the target, but 34 of those made by competitors do. Moreover, of all the cars on sale in Germany which pump out more than 200g of CO2 per kilometre, most are German.
Sempra Energy shows sharp earns drop
Sempra Energy, the parent of Southern California's two major gas utilities and an energy trading business, on Thursday posted a 65 percent drop in fourth-quarter profits, hurt by investments in Argentina that soured when that country's economy collapsed five years ago.
Peak Oil Passnotes: The Oil Market Heats Up
The oil and energy markets like to paint themselves as very scientific places. From the geology to the deep water technology, from the super tankers to the powerpoint presentations. But as we all know the truth is nothing of the sort.
The Time is Right for the Majors to Seek Bigger Fish
There is plenty of optimism among the deal-making community in the upstream oil and gas sector. Much is in the pipeline and some deals and refinancing initiatives are already in the public domain.
Scramble for Iraq's oil begins as troops start to pull out
We are about to find out if the invasion of Iraq really was a war for oil. The country is on the verge of passing a petroleum law, which will set down rules for investing in its oil industry. That will set off a race among the foreign oil giants, scrambling for their slice of Iraq's vast oil riches.
Nigerian oil minister says oil output capacity rising six pct per year
Nigerian oil minister Edmund Daukoru said that exploration had raised the country's oil reserves to about 35 bln barrels from five bln barrels in 1999, and that production capacity was rising."Reserves now stand at about 35 bln barrels and this underpins a steady growth in production capacity," Daukoru told a news conference here.
Film maker, Yahoo team to fight global warming
Yahoo and the producer of the documentary "An Inconvenient Truth" launched a website devoted to rallying US consumers to fight global warming by switching light bulbs.
African trade fears carbon footprint backlash
A recent bold statement by UK supermarket Tesco ushering in "carbon friendly" measures - such as restricting the imports of air freighted goods by half and the introduction of "carbon counting" labelling - has had environmentalists dancing in the fresh produce aisles, but has left African horticulturists confused and concerned.
Petroleum Rex
I noticed something pretty interesting yesterday, on the CERA thread, where I was having a "Deja Vu" HL debate.
In 1956, Hubbert predicted that the Lower 48 peak would be between 1966 and 1971, based on URR estimates of 150 Gb and 200 Gb respectively. He also predicted, in 1956, that the world peak would be no later than 2006.
In effect, Hubbert said that if the Lower 48 URR was 200 Gb, then the peak would be no later than 1971.
The Lower 48 peaked in 1970.
Using data through 2004, Khebab put the Lower 48 Qt (a HL estimate of URR) at 196 Gb.
Deffeyes predicted that 2006 was the most likely year for a decline in world crude oil production (within a 2004 to 2008 time frame), and world crude oil production is declining (EIA).
You continuously point to the US and the North Sea as examples of where HL happened exactly as expected, so thus HL should be used as the guiding model for everywhere. But both the US and Great Britain have had stable political climates, and a system of capitalism throughout their Oil producing life cycles. I would argue that those are both prerequisites for HL to work correctly.
The same can not be said for Iran, Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia, as well as countries in Africa. Iraq is a battlefield, certainly not the best environment to see a good HL plot. Russia has only recently recovered from the fall of the USSR. Iran is under UN sanctions I believe. Saudi Arabia is a kingdom.
The bottom line is HL is a capitalistic model of oil field development. The world just doesn't fit that model cleanly.
I don't disagree with you that we are at or near peak...but there are a lot of political reasons for that.
Geologically, (if there were no political boundaries and plenty of capital available for development) I think we could probably get to 100mbd. But that's really a moot point not worth arguing. What we're gonna get is a relatively (10 years?) long plateau and then a decline.
At least that's my take.
Although I would say that you're right that the bell-shaped curve of the Hubbert curve does not fit every region, an HL-plot certainly seems to work.
The reason why the US-48 is used as an example is because it was developed gradually - fits the hubbert curve almost exactly. The reason why the UK is used is because it is a two-humped camel, not fitting the curve at all. Just like Russia and Saudi Arabia, for instance. EVEN THEN the HL method worked. It won't be long til Saudi Arabia replaces the UK as HL's second prime example...
I'm still not sure when to listen to a dog leg or not, or where the line should be drawn..
Speaking of dog legs, I see one in this post by Euan Mearns yesterday
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2283#comment-162318
Another case of HL producing a false alarm with the real peak following ~10 years later. If Saudi Arabia follows the same pattern it should begin its involutary decline around 2015.
now does that nice little post take into account the cooking of the books in the 80's where S.A.'s reserves doubled literally overnight with no physical proof of it?
this is something westexas's estimates using HL take this little fact into account and has been proven right so far.
Freddy weren't you banned?
Do you think no one notices your sockpupet?
At least learn to capitolize, that would make your posts a little different.
The change in inflection on the data set right before 1999 was the same pattern that we saw right before the Texas, Lower 48 and Saudi declines.
In any case, rather than arguing hypotheticals, why not argue actually predictions?
As Deffeyes predicted, world crude oil production is declining (EIA).
As I predicted, Saudi crude oil production is declining.
As Khebab predicted, Mexican crude oil production is declining.
What is really bizarre about this whole "debate" is the ongoing attacks on the HL method even as region after region start declining, as predicted.
Here is the best information I have seen to date on what you talk about. This was done by Khebab, cover what fits and what doesn't fit very well in respect to HL. Worth the time to look at has 30+ charts from around world.
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/
Thank you.
The bottom line is HL can be a good indicator, but is not always the gospel. Oil producing regions can be throttled back, improperly developed, mismanaged, or even destroyed (natural disasters, hurricanes). Saudi Arabia would have the biggest financial incentive of anybody to do this, and as a Kingdom they are much more capable of pulling it off then in a capitalist society where monopolies are illegal.
Sometimes I wonder if there's room for any shades of grey at TOD.
For the record, I will state that it is possible Saudi Arabia really is over the hump and is now in massive decline. Or they could be throttling back to protect the price of oil. No one outside of a few people knows for sure. We watch and wait.
Actually, I think that whether one is a communist, capitalist, socialist or Paris Hilton worshiper has little to do with the peak. The big fields are found first. The overall decline sets in when the decline in the big fields can't be overcome.
I am really using the Lower 48 and the North Seas as best case histories for the post-peak decline rate.
"Paris Hilton worshiper" WT, great shout out for our great pal Oil CEO. Can we get him Unbanned? I miss him. I can get him to behave I swear.
westexas i strongly advise you to not use greenman's script.
many people have replied to this post and are attacking hl and your very good predictions with no data to back it up. and your lack of reply's and counters makes them appear they are right and the saudi's won't decline for another decade or more!
Damn, I'd just turned off the script, and now it looks like I've got to turn it back on.
*plonk*
There is a plethora of housing and mortgage-related news this morning. None of it good:
Lowe's Earnings Fall Less Than Analysts Anticipated
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adlNJw.sfbGk&refer=h...
ResMae's Collapse May Signal More Subprime Lender Bankruptcies
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4ARkN0vGerE&refer=h...
Mortgage woes weigh on H&R Block profit:
Results weighed down by subprime mortgage unit it put up for sale
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17295564/
Oh ya...and we are starting the day with crude priced over $61 to boot. It rose overnight.
And gasoline went up over two cents overnight. That's huge!
Anybody keeping track of those recent predictors of $30 oil, so we can send them a lump of (clean) coal for their stockings next Christmas?
In "normal" (increasing oil production) times, a recession would bring about lower prices across the board, which is one of the "benefits" of a recession.
Depending on the depth of a recession/depression, we could easily see a decline in oil prices, but the problem is that we are looking at a stair-step downward pattern in regard to oil production and prices: (1) Production falls; (2) Prices rise in order to balance supply and demand; (3) Then production falls again.
IMO, we are not going to see a rise in oil production, and the Export Land model only makes things much worse.
Again, the only thing that makes sense to me is a crash Electrification of Transportation program.
IMO, the suburban auto/housing/finance business model is dying in front of our very eyes.
WT
I am becoming increasingly concerned about the effects of a recession upon oil production. If the global economy cannot support an oil price high enough to pay for the increasingly higher costs of oil production, the fall-off in production could be quite rapid, and perhaps in many cases, conclusive, assuming the current level of affluence would never again be attained. Also, the closer we are allowed to come to the geologic peak before an economic correction takes place, the more rapid the fall-off in production would be. (Yes, I know, this is the crux of the whole PO issue, it's the rate at which it could happen that increasingly alarms me.) Even the CERA meeting recently, was expressing concern about the increasing costs of production.
Also, GailTheActuary made a good post yesterday about the need to address our current state of housing's energy requirements. Even if we could achieve electrification of transportation, the housing issue is looming and in need of equal attention. As she stated, houses need heated enough to keep pipes from freezing, or we have the beginnings of a downward spiral in urban infrastructure.
Based on the Lower 48 and North Sea case histories, the function of the oil industry in a post-peak environment is to slow the rate of decline of conventional production. Note that we slow the rate of decline by accelerating our rate of consumption of a depleting resource.
I think that the major effect of volatile oil prices and rising costs will be on nonconventional production, e.g. ExxonMobil's decision to cancel a GTL project. But again, all we are talking about is accelerating our rate of consumption of a depleting resource.
Meanwhile, note that we are seeing a furious counterattack on any suggestion that we are past, at or close to peak world crude oil production.
And so it goes.
All I can advise people to do is to implement ELP and "Cut thy spending and get thee to the non-discretionary side of the economy." And I recommend that everyone start lobbying for Alan Drake's proposals.
Interestinlg though, the furious counterattacks never stand up to scrutiny. In fact to date I don't think i've heard one counter-argument that couldn't be proven nonsense within 30 seconds.
Marco.
I've always viewed the counter-attacks like what happens with a cornered animal. The animal will try anything and everything to get out of that corner. It will become vicious and ruthless and will attack anything that stands in its way.
Those that are counter attacking are increasingly pulling out all stops/possibilities to convince an ever more disbelieving world. Someone mentioned yesterday that their statements are becoming a nonissue.
Just as people have learned to ignore what Bush and Cheney say these days, so people are learning to ignore YergCo and its massive disinformation program.
First they Ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Unfortunately, no one really wins since this is not a game.
It may be nonsense to you and me.
But these counterattacks anesthetise public opinion. Every educated person I know (MDs and PhDs) is quite sanguine.
Thanks for your reply, WT! That does help keep things in perspective.
westexas i am still waiting for a response from you about the 'localize' part of elp and why it locks one in with one company if you happen to still be a wage slave and not living off a pension or 401k you have no doubt built up. i say this because from what you talk about and how you developed this strategy you must be about 60. you have admitted to working in the oil field which would despite the willing pay cut you took probably netted you a huge amount.
because i do want a alternative to what i see for me and the fellow wage slaves about my age and that is we are basically sol in trying to prepare for anything.
Hi, westexas,
Thanks for the explanation you posted to me as well as this information. It looks like that neo-con version of the invisible hand is going to fumble the ball even worse than it has been doing.
I heartily agree with you that Electrification of of transportation is THE priority. If national security was really the aim of GWB you guys would be well on the way in that regard since 9/11 instead of producing alcohol from corn and starving cows. (would George possibly have some sort of fixation on distillation?)
Check this fact, which I read, that regular heavy rail non electrified has an efficiency rating of over 4 to 1 over regular long haul trucking, electric I imagine would be better. See 'US Railroad Efficiency' at: http://www.trb.org/conferences/railworkshop/background-McCullough.pdf , in particular Table 1 page 8
Incidentally we had a lovely streetcar system here in Vancouver until the city fathers tore up the lines. I was about 10 at the time and the transition from a lovely gentle ride to one filled with gasoline fumes, lurching and bumping really made a negative impression on me. It would really be nice to travel in a civilized manner again. That's one positive benefit P.O. may result in.
Black Bald.
Make sure to read these couple. It is going to be EXCITING day/weekend.
Subprime Titanic Hits Iceberg: Wall Street Abandons Ship
by Richard Benson
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6972.htm
The BBB- rated portions of ABX contracts are "going to zero"...And the "Subprime Carnage" Worsens...
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini
Oh, and BTW, It looks like Bill Gates is cashing out some more too.
Look on this link on how many shares he has sold.
Nov, 2006: Bill Gates sold off $580,912,000 of MSFT shares.
Feb, 2007: Bill Gates sold a further $292,541,000 of MSFT shares.
This means that in the last 3 months Bill Gates has dumped a total of $873,453,000 of shares in MicroSoft.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=MSFT
We are in exciting times. The End Game has started.
John
One of the little ironies about encouraging people to move out of outlying suburbs is that it just leaves some other poor sucker with the mortgage.
Of course, the ultimate problem is a Fannie Mae meltdown. Ultimately, we are all going to pay for the auto/housing/finance boom and bust.
As noted down the thread, IMO Alan Drake offers us the only reasonable hope of surviving this mess.
As I asked yesterday, has anyone who voluntarily downsized had reason to regret it?
I'm all for public transportation where it makes sense. I love the NYC subway and the T in Boston.
But as Stuart pointed out when he crunched the numbers, mass transit is not going to make much difference for the vast majority of us.
IMO, we saw that clearly during the oil price spike last year. Demand for public transportation jumped, but in many areas, service fell. The higher energy prices left local governments struggling with budget deficits, and they could not afford to expand service, or even maintain it in some areas.
I'm glad you reminded us of Stuart's work.
The problem of insufficient population density to make mass transit a significant factor (to offset less oil available in the future) is something not easily addressed. For all the goodness of rail (and I use it every day here as I have no car) to work in a community people just have to be willing to live closer together than in, say, Maricopa county.
Such assessments are based on peoples' current tendencies -- most keep driving alone even at $3/gal, and will do that even at $5. But with further rising fuel prices and further falling perception of wealth (as the housing bubble keeps bursting) those tendencies will eventually change. And with enough demand for other transport solutions, laws and funding mechanisms will be changed to accommodate such solutions, e.g., "jitneys". The challenge for the peak-aware is to push as much as possible in advance for the right changes, since early changes and investments will ameliorate the future pain somewhat. If currently, say, 1% ride the bus and the bus is half full, then without further investment, when suddenly TSHTF (e.g., attack on Iran), and many more try to ride the bus, it still leaves 98% out.
For most people they do not have an alternative to their car. And for those people, not driving means no income. Their is no real alternative for them. They are not financially stable enough to stop working - they are locked into the system.
The actual price of gasoline will not discourage usage by a large number of people until it becomes a truely insurmountable cost in there lives. I don't think this price will be $5, $10, or even $20/gal for a large portion of the population. Price alone will not change the behavior of the mass public - directly anyway.
I think the biggest changes will start to occur as a secondary responce. Because of high prices there will be government controls put into place. These would come in the form of rations or price controls, but both will have a similar affect.
Eventually we will end up with situations similar to what is present in Iraq. There is an offical gasoline market, but you have to wait hours to get your gasoline, if it is available at all. Once the reliability of the market is destroyed a black market will develop - either to avoid the wait or get around the rations - at a premium price.
At this point you will see a much more radical change in behavior. It won't be a choice of paying $50 to drive to a job to make $200 and being able to rationalize that. It will be pay $100 to garrantee I can get to work, or sit