The Oil Drum

Peak Oil: An Update

After two decades of almost continuous growth, global oil production has been stagnant around 84 million barrels a day for the past two years. This, of course, is exactly consistent with the peak oil hypothesis, which predicts that supply constraints will force up prices, destroying growth in demand.

It will be some years before we can tell for certain, but it is entirely possible that we're in the middle of peak oil right now. That's certainly consistent with the predictions of Kenneth Deffeyes, Colin Campbell, Matthew Simmons, and other geologists and oil industry analysts.

Smoke and mirrors

Each year in the July issue of the Monthly Oil Report, the International Energy Agency in Paris (IEA) publishes their first forecast for next year’s supply and demand. The geographic area where the IEA should have the best chance of making accurate predictions must be non-Opec ex FSU. In this area there is limited civil upheaval and political interference with the oil industry.

Since their forecast made in 2002, it turns out they have increasingly overestimated production growth each consecutive year.

Nuclear Energy for the Developing World

New reactor technologies offer poorer nations cheap, safe, efficient power. Sanctions designed to prevent the proliferation of weapons impede their use. What would a better policy look like?

Macro Musings

Here are a few excerpts from Putin's forceful remarks:

"Today we are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force - military force - in international relations . . . We are seeing a greater and greater disdain for the basic principles of international law . . . The United States has overstepped its national borders in every way . . . and of course this is extremely dangerous. It results in the fact that no one feels safe."

This is more than just the pot calling the kettle black. This is the soot-covered black cat hiding in a coal bin in a dark corner of the basement calling the kettle black.

How global warming goes against the grain

The place where most of the world's people could first begin to feel the consequences of global warming may come as a surprise: in the stomach, via the supper plate.

That's the view of a small but influential group of agricultural experts who are increasingly worried that global warming will trigger food shortages long before it causes better known but more distant threats, such as rising sea levels that flood coastal cities.

Zero Degrees of US Dollar Seperation

The USDollar will be defended with gold levers, with oil levers, and with military levers as the American Empire fades anything but quietly. Natural forces oppose all three devices abused as tools. One should not regard it as unpatriotic to notice what occurs, since usage of the brain is an inalienable human right. The gold levers are opposed by Asian central banks, principally China and Russia, the outspoken rebel with nuclear capability, tremendous ambition, and willingness to use energy as a formidable weapon. The oil levers are opposed by Mother Nature, who is never to be denied for long. The latest public natural victim has been the Mexican Cantarell giant oil field in rapid 15% annual decline. The military (called in true Orwellian style “defense”) levers are opposed by those who wish not to be invaded on their own turf, a defense mechanism as old as the caveman. The USDollar depends therefore upon Eastern central bankers not to act too rebelliously, upon market mechanisms disobeying Mother Nature, and upon guerrilla fighters not prevailing. One can comfortably count on lost ground on all three fronts, over time. One should always remain aware that gold, oil, and the military are connected by zero degrees of separation.

Two Emerging-Market Oil Giants

I remain bullish about the prospects of the oil patch for several reasons. There is continued demand growth from developing nations such as India, China, and Brazil, and OPEC estimates that global oil consumption will increase 1.6% in 2007. In addition, there's a global scarcity of spare refining capacity, declining production rates in key regions such as the North Sea, Alaska, and Mexico's Cantarell field, and the uncertain political environment in many oil-producing nations such as Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, and Iran.

US's Iraq oil grab is a done deal

US President George W Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney might as well declare the Iraq war over and out. As far as they - and the humongous energy interests they defend - are concerned, only now is the mission really accomplished. More than half a trillion dollars spent and perhaps half a million Iraqis killed have come down to this.

Japan and Russia Agree To Increase Energy Relations

Japan and Russia have pledged to strengthen reciprocal relations in oil and natural gas development and increase trade at a ministerial meeting in Tokyo.

A Practical Use for Waste Methane

A direct method of converting methane into useful chemical compounds could reduce the release of the potent greenhouse gas at isolated oil fields.

TXU's emissions U-turn shocks power industry

TXU Corp.'s decision to whittle down plans to build 11 carbon-spewing, coal-fired power plants as part of its buyout deal with private-equity firms sent a chill Monday through both Wall Street and Washington, signaling that utilities can no longer afford to ignore climate change.

Big Ideas for a Greener World

Alternative energy companies are vying for investor dollars with some audacious approaches to providing cheap, clean energy.

Wishful thinking is no magical energy elixir

The U.S. Energy Information Administration believes the practical limit for domestic ethanol production is about 700,000 barrels per day -- in 2030. In 23 years, that will translate into about 6 percent of the U.S. transportation fuels market.

Quantum Awarded Contract to Expand Hydrogen Hybrid Vehicle and Refueling Infrastructure Programs for U.S. Army

Ontario may wait weeks for gas shortage relief

A gasoline shortage that started with Imperial Oil's Esso stations in southern Ontario is spreading to competing companies as efforts to restablish fuel supplies are hampered by weather.

A winter storm on Monday delayed repairs to Imperial Oil's Nanticoke refinery, which was hit by a fire two weeks ago. That incident cut production at the plant in half.

The problem, which was made worse by the recent CN Rail strike and a December fire at another Imperial Oil refinery in Sarnia, Ont., has started to force other companies to ration gasoline at the pumps. In some instances, pumps are being shut off because they have no fuel to sell.

Kenya: China Selling Off Oil Rights It Got for Free

There was outrage among European oil exploration companies interested in Kenya when it emerged last week that the state-owned National Oil Corporation of China - CNOOC - has quietly put out notices offering to farm out to third parties some of the oil exploration blocks granted to it by President Mwai Kibaki in April last year.

Saudis Say Terrorism Possible in French Attack; 4th Man Dies

Saudi Arabian authorities don't rule out terrorism in the killing of four Frenchmen, including two Schneider Electric SA employees, in the kingdom, holder of the world's largest oil reserves.

Relocalisation - acting locally on global issues

Peak oil is one of those ideas that have spun into mainstream thinking from society’s innovative fringe. What is interesting is how readily the idea has been accepted and how influential and knowledgeable people, some having an association with the oil industry, support it.

Backward and forward - Board looks at future of energy, financial history of county fair

A decreased supply and increased costs will impact all areas of life as we know it, including food production and distribution (the average food in the U.S. travels 1,200 miles from farm to table), transportation, housing, medicine and plastics as well as all government services such as police, fire, emergency, health care, housing, education and planning.

Need For A Balancing Act: Reducing Oil Dependence Without Triggering A Global Crisis

Three facts underscore the importance of the debate about the future of oil: oil is a finite resource; oil is one of the major anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide; and the world economy is heavily dependent on oil, especially in the transportation sector. The most important questions are: How do we balance depletion, the environment, and economic growth – remembering that “we” includes human beings in oil-exporting countries as well as those in oil-consuming countries? Will the transition to new energy sources be seamless and easy, for oil-exporters as well as for oil-importers? How will oil-producing countries react to the non-market based efforts of oil-consuming countries to reduce their dependence on oil? Should oil-producing and oil-consuming countries cooperate to make the transition to new energy sources as painless as possible for all parties? Will these efforts at cooperation succeed in the long run if they are not market-based efforts?

Greatest Expectations

With the advent of Peak Oil, dreams of a world free of nuclear energy are fading. But, just like nuclear weapons, nuclear disarmament looms over us like a specter. They both wreak havoc with our peace of mind -- the first a threat to our existence, the second to our consciences.

Kunstler critiques urban planning, oil shortage

Humanities Symposium keynote speaker James Howard Kunstler spoke critically about the nation's energy sources, and the plan for the future to a packed audience in McManus Theater last Tuesday.

Tech giants join to cut industry's power needs

For Advanced Micro Devices' Bruce Shaw, combating the technology sector's impending energy crisis ``is the biggest problem facing the industry today.''

Costa Rica to cooperate with Dominicans in abating energy crisis

Zambia: Bio-Fuel - Experts Call for Caution

Bio-energy can succeed in Zambia if energy crops do not impact on food security but provide opportunities to benefit small-scale farmers who may be engaged in growing Jatropha.

Biofuels can replace oil

A comprehensive look shows that for every one unit of energy you put into growing the soy bean to crushing the oil to converting it to biodiesel, you get 2.2 back out. Ethanol has a lower return of about 1.2, but it is still a positive return. This article will take a closer look at these biofuels and offer solutions that are in the works.

Pakistan: Oil and gas production declined by 4.8% in H1

The total oil and gas production decreased by 4.8 percent during the first half of current financial year compared with the corresponding period of last year due to a decline in output by some major fields.

Venezuela to seize foreign oil projects

President Hugo Chavez ordered by decree on Monday the takeover of oil projects run by foreign oil companies in Venezuela's Orinoco River region.

Global warming a hot spot for investors

Droughts. Hurricanes. Rising temperatures. Melting glaciers. In a world abuzz with talk about global warming, climate change is elbowing aside tech and biotech as the major investment theme of the future.

Wall Street's savviest analysts are devising ways to cash in on crazy weather, just as they did in response to the profound changes brought on by the dawn of the digital age, globalization and the graying of America.

Price of gasoline continues to climb

Hydro may be striking more oil

Norwegian industrial concern Norsk Hydro reportedly has made a promising new oil and gas discovery in the Barents Sea, but it's also causing serious environmental concerns.

Oil exploration hits fishermen in Indonesia's Aceh

Oil exploration has cost fishermen in Indonesia's Aceh province more than two million dollars in income by damaging their nets and fish traps, a regional community leader said Tuesday.

The Oil Depletion Protocol: An Interview with Richard Heinberg

London mayor to announce climate change strategy

According to The Guardian, the mayor's office will set aside 47 million pounds in next year's budget to jump-start plans to cut carbon emissions in London by 60 percent by 2025.

Scientists wary of Lake Superior warming

Austin, a Duluth professor and a researcher with the University of Minnesota-Duluth's Large Lakes Observatory, has studied decades of data. What he found was water temperatures rising almost twice as fast as air temperatures — more than 4 degrees for the average surface temperature.

The increase is having dramatic effects.

Western states united to bypass Bush on climate

Five Western U.S. states have formed the latest regional pact to bypass the Bush administration to cut emissions linked to global warming through market mechanisms.

Dung power at U.S. ethanol plant

Sweden restarts nuclear reactors

Two of three Swedish nuclear reactors shut down this month following minor incidents were restarted this week, the Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) said on Friday.

Enron prosecutor takes on Navajo uranium cleanup

The Southern California lawyer who successfully prosecuted top Enron executives has been hired by the Navajo tribal government to seek a full cleanup of the old uranium mines contaminating the country's largest reservation.

Nuclear station's challenges laid out

Count Silverio Garcia, a former supervisor and long-time worker at Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, was the least surprised person last week when the Nuclear Regulatory Commission downgraded the plant to being the most monitored in the country.

Garcia has been on a mission for more than a decade, pointing out to federal regulators all the wrongs he says he has seen.