DrumBeat: March 2, 2007

Rise of National Oil Companies Crimping Long-Term Crude Supply

The rising dominance of national oil companies has relegated the Western oil majors to "second-tier status" and could have a "substantial long-term impact on resource development," according to a report to be released Thursday by researchers at Rice University.

The report, which notes national oil companies, or NOCs, now control more than 75% of global proved oil reserves, offers broad policy guidance to U.S. officials on navigating a global oil patch increasingly controlled by companies that view their socio-economic mission as equal to, or more important, than their commercial success. It will be released Thursday at a conference hosted by the James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice.

Although the report doesn't explicitly discuss prices, the rise of NOCs has been a "huge factor" in the price run-up of recent years, said Amy Myers Jaffe, a Rice fellow in energy studies who helped prepare the study. If leading NOCs don't adopt more commercially oriented measures, then "the path for prices is up," Jaffe added.

Iran considers petrol rationing as UN sanctions loom

Iran, OPEC's second largest oil producer, is expected to start rationing petrol within the next month. The move would come as the international community is discussing what further sanctions to place on Iran for continuing to enrich uranium. The Iranian Parliament has just approved a petrol rationing bill. Although heavily subsidised, like many other basic goods in Iran, much of it has to be imported at market price because the country has a shortage of refineries.


New Stirrings & Targets for Activism

Times have changed dramatically and permanently. As we heard yesterday, the best science now tells us that we have only ten years left to peak global emissions if we’re going to stay below 2 degrees C. Ten years. Campaigners working on energy are at a moment where we face a fork in the road. Although the need for upstream campaigns has never been more pressing, the powerful levers for action are newly downstream related to public concern over energy security and global warming.


Albania to establish an energy park near a coastal city

Albania has been energy hungry since 1990, and it experienced an energy crisis from the end of last year to the beginning of this year when lack of rain and decreased import of electricity from neighboring countries plunged the hydro-power dependent country into darkness, with power cuts across the country ranging from 5 hours to 14 hours a day.


Uranium relights South African mining industry

WHEN Neal Froneman first said he wanted to mine uranium, many thought he was clutching at straws. “One radio presenter laughed me out of his studio,” said Froneman whose sxr Uranium One (Uranium One) last month announced an imposing R22bn ($3.1bn) merger with Canadian firm, UrAsia Energy.


Bulgaria’s Kozloduy Among Most Dangerous Power Plants in Europe - German Media

Bulgaria’s Kozloduy nuclear power plant (NPP) has been among the most dangerous ones in Europe for ages.

Failures often occurred in its reactors and Bulgaria and foreign ecologists used to call for the plant’s closure, German newspaper Handelsblatt said.


South Africa: The Political Economy of Power

For too long the issue of energy has been set aside, treated as if it had no influence on how South African society is shaped. And there has been a somewhat valid stereotype that within civil society, energy has been the domain of white environmentalists - aging hippies in sandals going shoo-wah over the teachings of the Dalai Lama and speaking about how we all must conserve electricity, how we all must make sacrifices, whilst black children die in shack fires caused from having to use a paraffin stove because the household electricity lifeline was used up weeks before.


Attack of the cereal killers

The rising price of wheat - driven by speculative interest in biofuels - will do nothing to help farmers or the environment.


U.K. - Faulty fuel: mystery deepens

The problem emerged this week as large numbers of drivers across the east of England reported the same fault, all thought to be caused by fuel containing excess amounts of ethanol. Symptoms appear to be juddering and misfiring vehicles and a loss of power, possibly caused by engines switching to emergency settings after an exhaust sensor is damaged.

Mechanics in Norfolk have now reported several hundred cases but can do little to repair the vehicles because demand for the crucial part - a sensor used to regulate emissions - has led to a national shortage.


Canada: Fuel shortage hits truckers

Two major fuel suppliers are sounding the alarm for Ontario's trucking industry amid "critical" shortages of diesel fuel in the province.

The fuel shortage, which has seen motorists inconvenienced for more than a week as gas pumps intermittently run dry, has forced Ultramar to suspend diesel deliveries to four Toronto-area service centres and three other Ontario cities – Hamilton, Cambridge and London.


Gas-burning drivers urged to rethink how they get around

The fuel shortage gripping Toronto has environmental and oil industry experts grumbling about the relationship Torontonians have with gas.

Motorists take gas for granted, said Michael Ervin, president of MJ Ervin & Associates, a Calgary-based petroleum and refining consultant firm. Drivers are showing no signs of curbing consumption, he said.


BP, Gazprom Discuss Intl LNG Joint Venture

Top executives of U.K. oil major BP PLC and Russian gas monopoly OAO Gazprom met Thursday to discuss the creation of a joint venture, Gazprom said, against the backdrop of heightened tensions between the two companies over BP's future in Russia.


China's Oil Dilemma

Tensions in the Middle East are about to reach a boiling point. Where will the oil importing countries of the world turn when the balloon goes up?


John Michael Greer: The failure of reason

There has never been a shortage of good ideas for dealing with peak oil or, for that matter, any other aspect of the predicament of industrial society. What has been lacking consistently is the collective will to put any of those ideas into practice.


U.S. ‘stuck in reverse’ on fuel economy

While Congress and the Bush administration debate how to improve fuel economy in automobiles, a new study says the United States is “stuck in reverse” when it comes to offering consumers a wide selection of fuel-efficient vehicles.


Pickups, SUVs boost GM’s February sales


Gazprom to Take Majority Stake in Sakhalin Energy

In pursuance with the terms set in the Protocol, Gazprom will purchase 50 percent plus one share in Sakhalin Energy for US$7.45 billion. Each of the existing Sakhalin Energy shareholders will decrease its stake by 50 percent at the proportional payment distribution aimed at making the deal.


An Interview with Tony Juniper, part 2.

I think there will be a transition, and I think it is pretty impossible for us to have an orderly withdrawl from the Carbon Age that happens very quickly, we can’t do it. Our infrastructure, our transportation systems, our fuel mix, our agriculture crucially, everything, is geared up to being heavily dependent on fossil fuels. It will take a while to get out of it, but the quicker we start it the sooner we’ll do it, but also the more orderly the transition will be. This mixing up of decarbonisation with a shock built around the rapidly rising price of oil will be harder to cope with. If we start now and begin to decarbonise, with all the technological things we already have, from the bicycle to concentrating solar power, all that stuff already exists, we need to get it moving and get it into the market fast, so we can start the process while we still have the economic stability and the money and the social comfort to do this without even noticing it.


Enriched Uranium Unearthed From German Man's Garden

A German man obtained enriched uranium and buried it in his garden, raising concerns about the security of Germany's nuclear reactors, the environment ministry in the state of Lower Saxony said on Thursday.

"How do pellets get out of a nuclear reactor? That's not supposed to happen," said ministry spokeswoman Jutte Kremer-Heye.


Britain gets nuclear waste warning from energy chiefs

Britain must not go ahead with a new generation of nuclear power stations until it has a "clear and robust" plan in place for dealing with the twin problems of decommissioning and waste treatment, the world's leading energy body warned yesterday.

The International Energy Agency also said that any new nuclear programme must be funded entirely from the private sector, without any government subsidy or market intervention.


East Africa: Going Nuclear in East Africa

A carefully located nuclear power station spinning three turbines can efficiently generate 1,500MW enough to supply the regional base load for decades.


South Africa is looking to the development of hydrogen power as a way to solve its increasing energy crisis


Biofuel industry speeds up enzyme demand

As a result of the booming biofuel industry, the US enzyme demand, which amounted to $1.6 billion in 2005, is expected to reach $2.2 billion by 2010, according to a recent market study by the Freedonia Group.


Coal in cars: great fuel or climate foe?

A key problem is that liquid from coal emits twice as much carbon as gasoline. Still, Washington likes the idea.


When it comes to power, don't check into the Hotel California

As part of a proposed $45 billion buyout of TXU, the prospective new owners have reached an agreement with environmental groups not to construct eight of the 11 coal-fired generating units that the Dallas-based utility was planning to build.

That could be good for the environment. But what about the pocketbooks of Texas electricity consumers?


Senators call for 'crash program' to develop clean coal technologies

A national cap on carbon emissions would penalize states that rely more heavily on coal generation, Republican senators from the Midwest charged at a Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on state, regional and local perspectives on global warming. However, the idea of a federal "Apollo" program or "Manhattan Project" to develop and deploy clean coal technologies garnered bipartisan support at the March 1 hearing.


House Democrats unveil new energy plan

Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday unveiled a bill that would spend about $15 billion to double U.S. automobile fuel efficiency, expand ethanol distribution and build more mass transit.


Backyard Fuel Cell

Now the system, which they built for around $50,000, taps any surplus solar electricity to fill a 500-gallon hydrogen fuel tank, enough reserve for about 14 days’ worth of power (a second tank can be added to double that capacity). Friend thinks of the setup as sort of a TiVo for energy — bank hydrogen during the summer, then consume as it’s needed.


"Switchgrass is cool, dude"

There was even a titillating little bit about a new report on peak oil that had been completed by the GAO and handed over to Maryland Republican Roscoe Bartlett and to the House Science Committee. The GAO's Wells said that the report had come to an estimation of what the "consensus" view was on the likely arrival of peak oil, but he frustrated his audience by refusing to tell them exactly what the date was. GAO rules, he said, mandate that the "requesters" of a GAO study get to sit on the information for a maximum of 30 days before the report must be made public.

To which subcommittee member Steve Israel, a Democrat from New York, responded: "I just returned from China with Mr. Bartlett on an energy security congressional delegation meeting. And my sense is that Mr. Bartlett will not let much time go by before he speaks rather loudly about this issue. By the time we were finished, the Chinese government thought his name was peak oil."

(Bart points out this article, which says the GAO report says that peak oil is now. Peak conventional oil, anyway...)


Tom Whipple - The Peak Oil Crisis: The 4 Facets of Peak Oil

Looming just over the horizon are four great storms that soon will have a major impact on nearly all the world’s peoples and their descendents for decades to come. We know these storms are coming, for we can clearly see their outlines and some are already beginning to feel the winds.


Mexico sees deepwater oil production from 2012

Mexican state-owned oil company Pemex, under pressure to increase its energy output, said on Thursday it expects to begin producing oil from deepwater wells from around 2012.

"We will start to produce oil in deepwater wells in 2012, 2013 or 2014, within seven years," Pemex's head of exploration and production, Carlos Morales, told Reuters.

Pemex, which needs deepwater projects to compensate for falling yields at its huge but declining Cantarell field, has confirmed deepwater oil deposits with its exploratory wells like Noxal, Lakach and Tabscob.


Who Will Get the Oil?

Iraq's postwar oil bonanza remains a mirage. The country has the second- or third-largest reserves in the world, making petroleum the heart and vast bulk of its economy. Thus in March 2003 did Paul Wolfowitz assure Congress that Iraq would "finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon." American planners predicted that Iraq's oil production would triple to a feverish 6 million barrels per day by 2010.


South Africa could face a coal shortage should any one of the 20 coal-mine projects slip

There is a shortage of coal looming in the local market, believes African Rainbow Minerals (Arm) CEO André Wilkens.

“There is enormous growth planned in the power generation sector, which will place additional demand on coal supply.” About 90% of South Africa’s electricity is produced by coal-fired power stations, with the remainder flowing from nuclear, renewable and hydropower sources.


Can you be traveling green by buying offsets?

But for all the good feelings that bubble up for travelers who make donations, there's nagging controversy about their effectiveness and the accountability of some of the enterprises taking money.


Hugo Chávez exploits oil wealth to push IMF aside

Chávez is promoting what he calls a "socialist" alternative to the Fund and its biggest shareholder, the U.S. Treasury. The timing could not be worse for the IMF, whose global clout is diminishing as countries from Uruguay to the Philippines pay their debts.

"Chávez is the No. 1 enemy of the IMF in the region," said José Guerra, a former head of economic research at Venezuela's central bank and now a professor at Universidad Central de Venezuela in Caracas. "He views the IMF as an agent in the service of the U.S."


Two oil giants plunge into the wind business

As global warming and clean fuels have gained more attention, Shell Oil Co. and BP have accumulated impressive credentials. Shell is one of the nation's top five generators of wind power, while BP's Alternative Energy group -- launched 16 months ago -- aims to develop projects that produce 550 megawatts of electricity this year, one-sixth of the projected US wind energy output in 2007.


Africa: Where the Next US Oil Wars Will Be

The Pentagon does not admit that a ring of permanent US military bases is operating or under construction throughout Africa. But nobody doubts the American military buildup on the African continent is well underway. From oil rich northern Angola up to Nigeria, from the Gulf of Guinea to Morocco and Algeria, from the Horn of Africa down to Kenya and Uganda, and over the pipeline routes from Chad to Cameroon in the west, and from Sudan to the Red Sea in the east, US admirals and generals have been landing and taking off, meeting with local officials. They've conducted feasibility studies, concluded secret agreements, and spent billions from their secret budgets.


UN chief says climate change as great a threat as war

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said on Thursday that global warming posed the same threat to humanity as war and warned of an "unconscionable legacy" being left for future generations.


Warmest winter on record for Shanghai

While recognising the dire long-term consequences of global warming, the [Shanghai Meteorological] Bureau said there had been some short-term benefits for Shanghai in the winter just passed.

Energy consumption fell in some areas due to the decreased need for heating, while a range of vegetables grew in abundance, leading to a fall in their market prices, the director of the bureau's climate centre, Lei Xiaotu, said.


All those scientists may still be wrong

The scientific mainstream, however, refuses to concede that it could be wrong. It insists we must act now to decarbonise our economy, whatever the consequences. If the science were as certain as suggested, it would have a point. But it isn't and, in the meantime, we are being forced down a single policy direction that may be ineffectual and takes resources away from the real and present problems in the world.


John Bruton: EU can offer U.S. ideas on climate change

As the European Union's ambassador to the United States, I have been very vocal in alerting this country to the looming disaster of global warming. With mounting, irrefutable evidence, Americans are finally coming to heed the danger signs and are beginning to listen. Europe has cheered as California and like-minded states have taken steps to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, but these efforts should really only be the beginning.


A Green Deal on Coal

The Energy Department says there are 159 new coal-fired power plants on the drawing boards; of these, only 32 are considering — though not committed to — technologies that could significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. What’s needed is federal legislation that would drive them in the direction TXU’s new owners have promised to take.

The GAO report that is due in a month is going to claim that PO is now. That is a HUGE development, possibly the biggest development in the PO story to date. Amazing...

Hmm can you elaborate a bit? A translation of GAO for example? Ive worked a day here in Europe and my brain is a bit slow to figure it out?
Tha nks

The "Switchgrass is cool, dude" article I posted above mentions it, and also includes a link to a Platt's story about it (provided by Bart in yesterday's DrumBeat).

I am not as excited as Cynus. Peak oil is now...but it's carefully phrased as peak conventional oil.

And here's EB's take on it:

http://www.energybulletin.net/26644.html

They include links to previous discussions of the GAO report.

Oh, and this link explains what the GAO is.

GAO stands for the Government Accountability Office. Until recently, it was known as the General Accounting Office. It is the investigative branch of the U.S. Congress.

Your Government is accountable?

To Who?

Now, now. Tony doesn't want twats like you suggesting the US Government is any way less accountable than his very own.

Please, think of the special relationship! Good God man, are you suggesting any thing sordid? :)

Mudlogger, are you an owl? :-)

I know this is pedantic but it should be 'to whom?'

It won't take a month. The GAO is holding it for up to 30 days while Rep. Bartlett reviews it. Think the global markets are having heartburn now?

I agree, cynus, the GAO report is big news. However, it's not that there will be new information for those of us who have been following it. (For new information, one has to come to TOD.)

What's new is that peak oil will be getting official confirmation from a respected source, assuming Rep. Bartlett's hints about the report correctly describe it.

The Government Accounting Office (GAO) has a good reputation as an objective and independent voice within the U.S. government.

The report may just be the crack in the dam, making it politically permissable to talk about the subject -- just as the Hirsch Report gave peak oil added credibility a couple of years ago.

Already, as Byron King points out ("The Shell Answer Man"), the statements from the oil companies indicate they have reached similar conclusions as we have about peak oil -- they are just avoiding the term "peak oil", as well as by fuzzing the issue by talking up non-conventional sources of oil. I think that Leanan is right in suspecting that po skeptics will make full use of this tactic.

Part of the suspense, I think, is finding out whether or not this story will ever precipitate a panic as the news of PO reaches a critical mass. How the MSN handles it, will be key. Presenting the PO skeptics side in conjunction with the GAO report, for example, may actually be a good thing.

I remember the shock that learning about PO was to me several years ago and how I felt like I had been punched in the stomach for a month or so. I can't imagine what it will be like when hundreds of millions of people get that feeling all at once.

Take it further....

Imagine how they react with their assets they currently perceive as valuable. Last one out loses....

http://thefinancedude.blogspot.com

also....Perfect storm....PO, recessions, & GW.... YEH.....better be grabbin some cold ones and finding your spot to watch.

Winter in Croatia warmest ever, up to 7.4 C above long term average.

http://klima.hr/ocj.html

Actually not that unusual, Winter doesn’t end for another 19 days.
I have down loaded all the daily temperatures for NY City for the past 60 years, high, low, and median,
Then determined the avg annual January temperature for each year. Well It turns out that 2006 48.4 F was not the warmest, it was 1950 at 48.6 F. Also on January 26 1950 it was 72 degrees F in NYC.
The coldest avg Jan temp was in 1977 at 27.7 F. For a range of 20.9 degrees F or 11.6 C.
The normal median Jan temp for NYC is 32 degrees F or 0 degrees C. Therefore 48.6 F is 16.6 F above normal or 9.2 C above normal for the month of January.
I will give an update after 21 March for Winter.

Dip: The global warming isn't symmetrical. Right now it is mostly hitting the northern polar regions, especially northern Asia and Europe.

Warms more at higher latitudes. Warms more at night. Warms more in winter. Is this because of rising dew points? Do rising dew points at low temperatures have more effect on temperature than rising dew points at high temperatures because of a nonlinear effect? BTW Croatia is at about 45 degrees and NYC is at 42 degrees Lat. Falling temperatures go flat when they reach the dew point.Example the gulf coast.

What is happening is that the high CO2 levels are reducing the cooling that happens at night and in the winter.

i have a silly question, as space is a vacuum, or effectively so, and therefore a perfect thermal insulator, how does the earth, as a total system, cool ? solar radiation reflected into space is one thing but heat..... lost in space ??

Energy leaves the earth the same way that it gets here: electromagnetic radiation. The surface of the sun is hot enough that it's electromagnetic spectrum encompasses UV, visible, and IR radiation, all of which reach earth to some extent. The earth's surface temperature is much lower, thus it only radiates in the infrared.

It also goes out as radiation. Every object radiates energy in the form of electromagnetic waves. The
Planck's law of black body radiation
tells you how much a black body emits at each frequency. At the Earth's temperature, it is mostly infrared radiation, and this is what gets trapped by CO2 and other greenhouse gasses.

So yeah, it gets mostly lost in space, as photons, radiated in every direction, and it will never ever hit anything.

"and it will never ever hit anything"

Well, that's not quite true. Earth is doing its tiny part to heat up Pluto. It's a big, cold universe out there. More accurate to say that most of those photons won't hit anything for quite awhile.

ok thank you both for the concise explaination.

There is a "mostly" earlier on in the phrase, with which I meant to take care of those photons which did hit something, be it the Moon, Pluto, some H2 in Andromeda, or whatever.

Also, there would be no end of fun discussing if going down a black hole counts as "hitting" something, whose time frame and/or world path is the "never ever" referring to, if all the photons leaving the Earth are just the same one going back and forth, and related issues. Pick your poison.

Higher atmospheric temp, higher dew point. Higher dew point more water per volume. More water per volume more energy per volume at the same temperature. At a given temperature a volume of air with higher water content takes longer to radiate its energy simply because it has more to energy to radiate. Therefore as pressure gradients move the air into higher latitudes they contain more energy and take longer to dissipate, consequently the winter and nighttime temperatures are higher. Water vapor causes the increases at higher latitudes, in winter and at night. Co2 provides the means to increase the dew point or water vapor per volume at all latitudes by retaining some of the radiated energy. I am no atmospheric Wizard I am simply stating my understanding of what may be happening.

Everybody has forgotten that the dew point is the temperature at which water vapour in the air becomes water liquid; this process releases heat, so the process acts as a tempurature stabilizer [for awhile] by heating the surrounding air.

A local editorial writer wrote a column called "Yes, each of us can play at least a small role in reducing energy consumption, pollution." I saw the opportunity, because this column suggests a receptiveness to energy issues, to write to him and at least attempt to guide him to expand his views. Maybe we can all find someone in our local paper like this to write to. I don't know if it'll do any good, but at least it's something. I also don't know why I hammer so much on national security issues when I write things like this, but this is what I wrote (yes, I know I missed a lot but it was getting HUGE):

Pre Script: Thank you in advance for reading this letter. I didn't originally intend it to be a novel but as I wrote it and tried to include all aspects, it just kept growing to the behemoth that it is. Feel free to use any of the ideas in your columns, or pass them on to others who might. Again, thank you.

Hi Dave,
I'm writing this to you because of your editorial "Yes, each of us can play at least a small role in reducing energy consumption, pollution." The article is great and I'm glad you wrote it, but it's really the tip of the iceberg. Energy is at the heart of all we do, and as we begin to hit practical limits set by the environment we become more and more vulnerable to disruption. This can have repercussions on national security, the economy, the health and well being of citizens, the environment - all aspects of our lives. One of my great concerns at the moment is due to what is termed "peak oil," which is really a fairly universal problem of finite resource extraction. Spare capacity of oil is eroding throughout the world. The United States hit its own peak in 1971 and despite all of the advancements in drilling technology, offshore drilling and even the opening of the North Slope in Alaska, has declined ever since. It can only follow that the world will show the same behavior at some point. Indeed, Mexico's largest field complex Canterell is in steep decline and dragging the rest of PEMEX down with it. Tar sands and shale oil can't overcome the issue of production volume, despite their large reserves. If you can't pump it fast enough, you're still in trouble no matter how large the reserve is. Because we are continually increasing our demand for oil (as well as the rest of the world increasing demand), we are being forced more and more to get out oil from unsavory places. Though most of our imports now come from Canada and Mexico, as we continually outstrip their ability to provide we find ourselves increasingly involved in the Middle East, Russia, Venezuela - not just involved, but dependent on them. By extension, because oil currently IS national security and our economy, we are dependent on the middle east for our national security and economy. Places hostile to the US. Now to come back to the local level, it's found that Progress Energy wishes to build a oil fired peaking power plant in Woodfin. Oil. Now our electrical grid, which must remain stable because it is so vital, is going to be subject to, and increase, our dependencies on the Middle East, Russia, and Venezuela. The addiction to oversized cars, trucks and SUV's as single person commuter vehicles, keeping houses 80 degrees in the winter and 60 degrees in the summer all tie back into this national security issue. That is just national security. The issue of pollution is pretty straightforward, though WNC is affected more greatly per unit of pollution than other parts of the nation do to it's weather and terrain, experiencing subsidence inversions in the summer which trap the pollution produced in the basin in which Asheville and surrounding areas exist as well as some importing of pollution from the Ohio river valley. The issue of economic security/stability should also be pretty straightforward. It only took a 5% decrease in imports during the Arab oil embargo to turn the US on it's head and threaten our economic viability, causing chaos across the country. We're even more dependent on oil imports now, and with Katrina we got a little taste of an extremely small disruption and what it can cause. As the US continues to consume increasing amounts of energy it becomes more vulnerable on a national security front, the economy is imperiled to catastrophic disruption, pollution is increased, and our lives are no longer enhanced by our technology but hurt by it. There is a better way.

Sincerely,
xXxXxXxXxX [name removed for anonymous posting]

P.S. Feel free to contact me with any question or clarification you might have.

Substrate:
Really well put together letter. Thanks for writing it, and for sharing it here.

Both yours and the Tom Whipple article up top feel really helpful as the kind of Frank and Clear language that helps the person reading to see it in a perspective that demands action.

What I've been writing lately has seemed less effective, and though I can see it, sometimes I can hardly do anything to help it. I'm starting a folder just to keep examples of this sort of 'Effective, Convincing' writing, so I can keep 'soaking in it'.. But in the last couple months, I've been noticing a lot of fear in myself, and I know it clouds my thinking.. and writing, of course.

I see TWO major tasks for myself right now. One is to build the Household systems that I've devised on paper, so that I can show them to all my neighbors, working and active. (Solar Hot Air Boxes, Solar PV, Small Wind Generator, 'Winter Fridge' Heat Exchanger system, Bike Garage.. etc) The other is communication, sharing both the Essence of this problem, and the tools and directions we can be taking to try to get through it, or at least have as many cushions and hedges in place that we can soften the blow.

Respectfully,
Bob Fiske

The parade of denialist drivel continues. The opinion piece from the Telegraph, a neocon rag, drags out the same tired "skepticism" which is plain ignorance. Water vapour loading in the troposphere is not merely "a theory". The small increase in air temperature due to CO2 leads to warmer sea surface temperatures which in turn increases convective available potential energy that drives increased convection. The increased tropospheric water vapour contributes to the heating and you have a positive feedback. Of course this does not mean we suddenly hit Venus-like conditions. There is some offset from increased low and middle level cloudiness, but the atmosphere remains grey and there is no magical perfect offset that would shut down the warming.

The pattern of tropospheric moisture increase seen in climate models is confirmed by satellite observations (Soden et al, 2005). Specifically, there is a significant trend in the upper troposphere, where you would expect to see the impact of increased convection. And moisture in the upper troposphere happens to be very effective at trapping heat.

All the whinging about convective adjustment schemes does not undermine the fact that at the heart of the process is a simple thermodynamic balance: more heat --> more moisture. You can spend the rest of time trying to understand and model the behaviour of every atom in a cloud but there is an aggregate behaviour of the system which is there all the same. It is really obnoxious for lay people to comment on the scientific merit of theories and models they have absolutely no experience with. I suppose they think they are experts in medicine and engineering as well.

I agree entirely - see my comments below, written while you were writing yours. The "problem" is that global warming affects everyone and dealing with it requires change on the part of almost everyone, at least in developed countries. Unfortunately, this means that people with no knowledge of climatology, ecology, etc., feel able to give opinions on the merits of the scientific argument whereas they would never take issue with scientific opinions on say, the human endocrine system or sub-atomic physics.

JM Greer argues here: http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com
(article of March 1), that we need to counter denialism in peak oil and climate change not through logical argument but through devising more persuasive myths and narratives than those which emanate from "business as usual" attitudes. If and how these can be devised in a credible way, remians to be seen.

Everyone talks about the weather.

Has anyone reviewed any of the new theory about cosmic rays hitting earth/clouds and creating cooling/warming periods and that being the main driving force of GW?

I'm not a bedrock science kind of guy, but it seems at least plausible and I think it's possible and that with the added CO2, we're making it much worse as compared to natural changes. IN other words both can be right, but it seems as though the scientific community has just shut the guy out with little exploration of his different, status quo challenging idea.

Just curious what the science backgrounds around here think.

Info: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/10/taking-cosmic-rays...

Has anyone reviewed any of the new theory about cosmic rays hitting earth/clouds and creating cooling/warming periods and that being the main driving force of GW?

That's the sort of story I usually dismiss without much examination. Like someone who has a zero-point energy machine from an arrangement of little magnets and weights. Or someone who proposes the easy creation of a new, heretofore unobserved high-energy form of matter.

A quick check of my favorite reference doesn't give me any ammunition for a quick cocktail-napkin calculation, but it's my feeling that if there were enough cosmic rays to actually heat up the air 2 or 3 degrees, we would have all long since died from the ionizing radiation. That and, by nucleating clouds, the cosmic rays would tend to have a global cooling effect (from the albedo).