DrumBeat: March 4, 2007

Bill Clinton: Five questions for the 21st Century

Matthew Simmons, a distinguished petroleum investor who is no liberal Democrat tree-hugger like me, he is one of the Bush family's close friends. He's a conservative Republican. He says we have 35 years of recoverable oil left. The Saudis and Exxon say no, no we've probably got 100 years. Now the oldest city in civilization according to carbon dating that we know about today is Jericho in the Middle East, 10,000 years old. That means that the real happy talk people are saying we have a hundred years out of 10,000, one percent of the whole history of civilization, left to burn oil.

Canceling plans for coal plants leaves Texas in a jam

Texas officials now face the task of figuring out how to replace TXU's formerly planned addition of more than 6,000 megawatts of generation to the grid, equivalent to about 10 percent of the state's current installed capacity. This comes as the state's population is expected to grow by 20 percent to nearly 30 million people over the next decade because of an expanding economy and immigration.


Deep-water crude on tap

Petróleos Mexicanos expanded a technology agreement with Brazil´s Petroleo Brasileiro SA to help Mexico´s state-owned oil company drill in deep water and manage heavy-crude fields, President Felipe Calderón said.

...Pemex is betting crude oil in Gulf waters at depths of more than 500 meters will compensate in the long-term for the decline in Cantarell, its largest oil field.


The Ethanol Scam

In the 18th and 19th centuries, the U.S. economy was primarily based on carbohydrates. For most people, horses were the main mode of transportation. They were also a primary work source for plowing and planting. Aside from coal, which was used by the railroads and in some factories, the U.S. economy depended largely on the ability of draft animals to turn grass and forage into usable toil. America's farmers were solely focused on producing food and fiber. And while the U.S. was moderately prosperous, it was not a world leader.

Oil changed all that. After the discovery of vast quantities of oil in Texas, Oklahoma, and other locales, America was able to create a modern transportation system, with cars, buses, and airplanes. That oil helped the U.S. become a dominant military power. Humans were freed from the limitations of the carbohydrate economy, which was constrained by the amount of arable land.


There's change in the air

Europe's biggest producer of coal-fired power is out to prove that it can clean up its act.


The Carbon Folly

Policymakers have settled on 'emissions trading' as their favorite global-warming fix. But it isn't working.


My Dot-Green Future Is Finally Arriving: the New Eco-Capitalism

I was standing among a crowd of radical Serbs in front of the U.S. Embassy in Belgrade last week when it dawned on me: As a futurist, things are really going my way! It's 2007, and the old world has backfired so comprehensively that a new era is truly at hand. I actually knew this would happen. I guess, for a prophet, this is what victory feels like!


No magic bullet for energy crisis

We live in a truly magical time. With the flick of a finger, the power of 10 horses flows from a small wire in the wall of our homes to clean our carpets. We go to the local market under the pull of hundreds of horses and fly across our continent with tens of thousands of them. Our homes are warm in the winter, cool in the summer and lit at night. We have the technology and the economic possibility to elevate the living conditions of much of humanity to heights well beyond the dreams of Roman emperors. We never had it so good.

Enjoying life as energy users has been made possible by our increasing ability to exploit abundant sources of energy. The worldwide consumption of energy has nearly doubled between 1970 and 2001. By 2025, it is expected to triple. The extraction of oil, our most precious energy source, is predicted to peak sometime in 10 to 30 years, and most of it will be gone by the end of this century. What took hundreds of millions of years for nature to make will have been consumed in 200 years.


Layton zeroes in on oilsands

NDP leader Jack Layton slammed the generous tax breaks given to Alberta's oilsands industry and called Saturday for more restrictions on the industry's development.


Ontario takes rap for high pump prices

Blame Ontario for the latest spike in gasoline prices, say industry analysts.

Ontario's recent gas shortage - sparked by a fire two weeks ago at the Imperial Oil refinery in Nanticoke - appears to be having a ripple effect across the country, said Andre Plourde, department of economics chair at the University of Alberta.


Investors eye renewable energy

Despite government mandates and improved technology, renewable energy provides roughly the same percentage of electrons to the nation’s electric grids today as it did in 1978 — though global warming fears, energy security and the shrinking costs of producing “green power” could soon change all that.


Hunters in the Wind

We want forms of alternative energy that do not pollute our planet and foster our dependence on foreign oil. But what choices are we given? The only one available is wind power. All of the others are on the back burner waiting for the funding and recognition that the wind lobbyists have usurped.

In order for us to get on the band wagon for this new industry we are made to feel un-American and un-Environmental if we even question it, much less don't buy into it.

But, these whitewashed green monsters kill wildlife and wildlife habitat. And whether we know it or not killing them, will kill us. When you kill the king, you kill the kingdom. When you save the king, you save the kingdom.


‘We’ve got to have more corn,’ expert says

With the expanded use of ethanol, cars and sows are now competing for the same corn crop. The increased demand is profitable for Missouri corn farmers, but other sectors of the economy are feeling the burden of higher prices.

“We’ve got to have more corn,” said Peter Zimmel of the MU Department of Agricultural Economics.


Oil independence: Activist hopes Missoula can break free from petroleum's yoke

Peggy Miller is using her energy these days in a grass-roots effort to wean Missoula and 11 other cities across the country off their dependence on oil. “It's a year at a time,” says Miller.


Chevron head: plenty of untapped oil reserves left

All the talk of when the world will run out of oil could be rendered irrelevant because of geopolitical issues that block access to untapped reserves, the head of international exploration and production for Chevron Corp. said Wednesday.

John Watson told energy executives and analysts that the so-called peak oil debate focuses on the level of resources below the ground. He joined the prevailing view of speakers at the Cambridge Energy Research Associates' annual conference in Houston that the planet won't run out of oil anytime soon despite opposing theories that a peak and subsequent drop-off in production is imminent or even ongoing.

"Every time we say we're about to be tapped out, we find new ways to squeeze more out of reservoirs," he said.


Envoy warns Chavez about oil takeover

A top U.S. diplomat warned Friday that Venezuela cannot afford to drive away the major oil companies affected by President Hugo Chavez's decision to takeover the nation's most promising oil-producing operations.

..."Venezuela opened its energy section in the 1990s because it didn't have the capital or the technology to exploit its deep wells and its heavy oil, especially in the Orinoco," said Thomas A. Shannon, assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere Affairs. "If it's the intention of Venezuela to have a top of the line industry, then maintaining partnership with these companies is going to be essential."


Hijazi: Palestinian People Suffer Lack of Energy Resources

Hijazi revealed that Palestinians have attempted to reach some level of self-reliance in the electricity field but their sincere efforts were harshly shot down. "A modest power plant in the Gaza Strip was constructed, which could provide only 43 percent of Gazans with their power needs while the rest of the electricity supply had to be bought from Israel." He said.

But, he adds, this power plant was targeted by the Israeli occupation's full military might, plunging 700,000 Palestinians in darkness for months.


Turkey: Energy producers ponder moving plants abroad

As electricity generation costs grow higher in parallel to natural gas price increases, gas being the main input for most generators, energy producers in Turkey have started to seriously contemplate moving their plants to countries where natural gas is cheaper.


In search of a moral solution to our energy problem

There should be a cool place in hell for those who burn nutritious food to push around a sports utility vehicle. And a warmer place for politicians who treat our energy crisis as an economic or geo-political problem. Energy policy, with its resulting climate change, is a moral issue.


Fuel efficiency Geneva Motor Show theme

Fuel efficiency through new technology and hybrid vehicles will be a top theme at this year's Geneva Motor Show, with DaimlerChrysler displaying a lower-emission diesel engine and Toyota unveiling its Hybrid X concept marrying an electric motor with a gas engine.


Tibetans carry on as glaciers fall victim to global warming

The forecasts are of great concern to the world as Tibet is the source of most of Asia's greatest rivers, including the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Indus, Yangtze, Yellow and Mekong.

Up to three billion people who live along or near these rivers could eventually be threatened directly or indirectly by water shortages.


India's 'wet desert' hit by global climate change: scientists

Rainfall in the unique "wet desert" of India's northeast has become unpredictable and the dry season longer in a disturbing sign of major changes in global weather patterns, scientists say.


Lehman analysis says oil will rise, deflates ‘bubble’ theory

Crude oil will average $60 a barrel in the first quarter of this year and is poised to rise through 2008 on higher demand in the US and China, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc said.

World oil consumption will rise by at least 1.7mn bpd this year, led by China, according to Edward Morse, Lehman’s New York-based chief energy economist. Signs of an economic slowdown in the US, the world’s largest energy consumer, haven’t trimmed “robust” use of fuel, he said.


Paper details Brazil-Japan ethanol deal

A partnership to help supply Brazilian ethanol to the Japanese market could cost $8 billion, Brazil's largest newspaper reported Saturday.

The money would be used to buy minority stakes in 40 ethanol distilleries across Brazil, ensuring Japan a stable supply as it prepares to mandate an obligatory mix of ethanol in gasoline, the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper said.


Indian oil majors now aim for Norway

In the quest for energy security and to be relevant in the great hydrocarbons game, Indian exploration majors could be headed for Norway next. Oil ministry mandarins confirmed that Indian exploration majors have been asked to examine opportunities in the Scandinavian country.


Raymond J. Learsy: Size Begets Arrogance, ExxonMobil Calling

[ExxonMobil's CEO] predicted that hydrocarbons would continue to dominate the worlds transportation sector. "The scale advantages of oil and natural gas across a broad array of applications provide economic value unmatched by any alternative." No mention of the environmental costs, the foreign policy costs in lives and billions(scratch that) trillions of dollars nor the national security costs inherent in that "unmatched economic value". Please remember this is Exxon talking, and even though these "items" pop up on our bottom line, it doesn't on theirs. He continued predicting that energy demand would grow by 40 percent by 2030. Plugging his product he instructed us that there is no significant alternative to oil in the coming decades.

We live in a truly magical time. With the flick of a finger, the power of 10 horses flows from a small wire in the wall of our homes to clean our carpets.

That must be one magical amount of suck, when you have a 7440 watt carpet cleaner.

And a magical carpet that can withstand the force of a 10 Hp cleaner.

Vacuuming aside, the level of disconnect and cluelessness in a US professor of physics is astounding.

To see someone on that level state that peak oil might happen in 30 years, while world energy consumption is set to triple in 18 years, what can you say to that?

If the best-educated, let's not use the term intelligent here, among us see this as reality, what can you expect his students and their families and friends and neighbors to understand?

It's not CERA that's the problem, it's an entire blindfolded nation.

His students, their families, friends and neighbors ubderstand that peak oil cultists are morbidly depressed tin foil hat wearers.

When they feel it in their wallets, they will get religion. Hallelujah brothers!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070304/japan_markets.html?.v=2
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070305/wall_street_week_ahead.html?.v=2

Physics professors don't get out much, I doubt he has ever read anything on the "oil supplies" subject. For engineers and scientists, renewable energy may be considered more of a technical issue than socio-economic. If a tech miracle happens, then it may change the global energy picture overnight. Ripping up the whole world and changing it isn't going to happen, at least not volentarily. To think otherwise is silly. Noone is blindfolded or clueless, most just can't change it so why worry? All CERA may want to prevent a panic (1929?) since they obviously know the truth.

Personally I would prefer the world change slowly so we can adjust. When/if the barbarians are at the gates, there will be plenty of change for all of us.

It may be better to be a live jackal than a dead lion, but it is better still to be a live lion. And usually easier. - Heinlein
To Ride, Shoot Straight and Speak the Truth - Col Cooper

The barbarians are already at the gates. They're building them.

Good thing no-one is clueless.

Otherwise, who knows what might happen?

"Noone is blindfolded or clueless, most just can't change it so why worry?

Bullshit. Flyboy is exactly right. Don't be fooled by the very small audience here at TOD that is aware and awake. The vast majority of the Herd of Saps are without a clue and are blindfolded foolZ.

Very few people know anything at all about Peak Oil and Gas. Virtually no one understands energy - it is something we've taken for granted all of our lives the past couple of generations.

Our assinine leaders still think they are in control and that "the market" will save us. "The Market" is Mother Nature and she is going to eat us alive. One by one.

Even the very small fraction of our First World that is awake worries about childishly naive things like "food or ethanol for our car-cars and trucks"... just wait a few years until half the northern hemisphere cannot heat their homes and then we will see if they are still worried about their fucking cars.

Idiots.

Just came back from spreading some compost around - for around 10 years in this part of Germany, you can either compost your 'bio' (organic/food/otherwise compostable) waste, or have it picked up once every 2 weeks for a fee by the city - quite honestly, I'm not sure how expensive it is. Though it is very likely that most if not all bio waste is burnt as fuel for electricity, the idea of having people compost their own waste for use in their own gardens seems to be a fairly simple one. (Town compost, for example from all the trimmed trees and flower beds, is spread over local farm fields at times, however - nothing like keeping things local to keep them local - something routine here in many things.)

Now consider this - of all the housing built in American suburbs over the last 20 years, how many have home owner associations which explicitly forbid composting? Or drying the wash outside, which we also did today, though that is still technically not allowed around here, as today is a day of rest. A fantastically warm, sunny, perfect for clothes drying day - sometimes, you just risk the wrath of heaven, and enjoy the fresh scent of clean bed sheets.

It isn't a blindfold around American eyes, really, it is something much, much harder to encompass. A willful inability to even grasp reality seems to be a part of it. Without any excuse of tradition, as the charming (or sinister, depending on whether you focus on cathedrals or witch burning) aspect of middle age religosity explains the legally mandated social custom of not hanging laundry out on official church reserved days (and yes, I actually know someone who did received official notification about 7 years ago that she shouldn't do that on Sundays).

If America lived differently, many of it problems would no longer exist, but it seems as if for many Americans, living differently would be un-American.

But the Swiss are already planning for the future - I listened to a good 5 minute report on the radio while driving to work - the Swiss are already planning on how many people are going to need to be moved, as the glaciers recede from mountain sides, causing massive changes in the local geography, for example.

And in America? It's all good, or some such, right?

If America lived differently, many of it problems would no longer exist, but it seems as if for many Americans, living differently would be un-American.

Don't forget, our wonderful leaders, including Darth, say that "The American way of life is not negotiable." And most Americans WANT to believe that. The do not want to believe that life could be radically different and/or more physically uncomfortable.

Most Americans spend their free time being entertained, rather than doing something creative. Under that scenario, it's hard to envision the bulk of the public accepting a different reality. That's why I'm somewhat pessimistic about the future. I think things MAY have to get pretty bad before they get better.

Expat--

Just about every masterplanned community in the United States prohibits clotheslines (solar dryers) as well as solar water heaters and PV panels. Other solar appurtenances to the house, like awnings, are also on the forbidden list. All in the name of protecting property values.

Has there ever been a society that is more disconnected from nature than ours?

Below is an excerpt from a column I wrote in December.

The rewards of a well-used solar dryer are by no means limited to the energy and dollar savings reported on the monthly utility bill. The best part of the package is the time spent outside. There you can take the pulse of the day from the sunlight, clouds, air temperature, wind and humidity that make up this continuous flux of energy that we call the weather. Relying on solar energy in this way makes a person more attuned to the ebb and flow of weather conditions. Yes, forsaking the fossil-fueled dryer for the great outdoors does take more time and effort, but it’s a small price to pay for eliminating the drudgery that comes with doing the laundry on autopilot.

Amazingly enough, community prohibition of clotheslines is not uncommon in the United States. Ironically, this inane belief that the sight of gym trunks and sweat socks hanging in a yard will drive property values lower is strongest in the Sun Belt, a region where solar drying—and water heating--should be the norm and not the exception. What can you say about a mindset that thinks nothing of wasting a precious fossil fuel on doing the laundry just to keep up appearances? Given how prevalent this silly and self-destructive behavior is in our land, is the imminent arrival of the oil peak and terminally declining natural gas stocks necessarily a bad thing?

Fortunately CCRs against PV systems are illegal in California.

We need a national override.

Well the may have something in a HOA bylaws that say I can't dry my clothes outside but seriously what are they gonna do put a notice on my front door?? It would cost them more than what it is worth to stop me from drying my clothes outside. HOA's can't do anything. Even if they tried I could drive around my neighboorhood and find a crapload of violations which they have not acted on causing all sorts of problems in regards to enforcement.

I could drive around my neighboorhood

Perhaps you could WALK around your neighborhood and see even more ?

All too often, walking is not even considered, too many are conditioned to drive regardless of circumstances.

Best Hopes for short lived shoe leather and long life tires,

Alan

Good catch. I do walk around my neighboorhood every evening with my family however I also drive home everyday unfortunately. I tend to notice the negative things when I drive though. When I walk it is much more rewarding and positive.

Badger any predictions for this week and next week withdrawals in NG? DD are more this week according to NOAA.
TIA,

As far as I can tell, in my neck of the woods, Americans use Sundays for more shopping (after Saturday, I mean). After church, and the obligatory midday repast (a large amount of grain-fed protein, usually) it's off to the stores to "shop til you drop." Riding my bike through traffic (huge pickup trucks and SUVs) and then actually driving in it this weekend was a real Matrix-style eye-opener for me, having just read Stuart's post on SA...

Given that 200 Amp panels appear to be a common size for households, the good professor may be on the low side for potential peak loads, given that Watts = Voltage x Amps :

From US Inspect: Items of Inspection

120-volt appliances and equipment:

* Refrigerator – depends on size and model – approx. 4 amps
* Microwave – depends on size and model – approx. 10 amps
* Hair dryer – 1500 watts – 12.5 amps
* Curling iron – 1200 watts – 10 amps
* Toaster – 1000 watts – 8.3 amps
* Lighting – approx. 1200 watts – 10 amps
* TV – 21 to 30 inches – approx. 150 watts – 1.25 amps
* Portable heater – 1500 watts – 12.5 amps
* Washing machine – approx. 1000 watts – 8.3 amps
* Furnace blower – approx. 400 watts – 3.3 amps
* Miscellaneous items – stereo, exhaust fans, blender, disposal, iron, additional TVs, etc.– 1500 to 4000 watts – 25 amps

Total of the 120-volt circuits = 130.15 amps

240 volt appliances and equipment:

* AC – 36,000 BTU – approx. 19 amps
* Range/oven – approx. 10,000 watts – approx. 41.66 amps
* Dryer – 4800 watts – 20 amps
* Water heater – 4500 watts – 18.75 amps

Total of the 240-volt circuits = 99.41 amps

You could convert the power draw for each type of appliance into the number of solar panels required. If the standard PV panel puts out 160 watts peak you might need 30 of them to run a 4.5 kw air conditioner.

Think of this way, driving down the street. Bling bling! a house with 30 roof panels. Hmmn, they must have AC.

Although I am on the gird, I have a large PV system. I also know a number of people in the area who are totally off the gird (I live in the boondocks.). The reality is that you live within the confines of your power. In other words, you select what you want to do and then modify your power usage as necessary.

For example, I can choose to run my 2hp well pump or the water heater but I can't run both at the same time. What I do is to be sure the pressue tank for household water is pumped up; then I'll turn on the water heater. Or, I can run our small AC but not the stove. I've had the system for years so I'm very attuned to what I can cannot run at the same time.

The people in my area who are off the grid rely upon propane for many of the appliances with big draws such as stoves and water heaters. As far as I know, they all have some kind of generator as a back-up for cloudy days to recharge their batteries or for loads beyond their system's capability.

It's a diffferent way to live but not that big a deal.

Todd

Good post. Do you and your neighbors have plans for when propane is not available? It sounds like you are real close to self-sufficiency. You will be better prepared for this than 99% of the population.

Cid,

Actually, the response will vary by individual. I'm in a different position than most others. First, I'm on the grid but have the PV system. Second, I'm all electric except for heating which is wood. Third, I have two choices for back-up generators: an 8kW gas and a 23kW diesel. If the grid goes down I'll convert the gas generator to wood gas. FWIW, I also have a 6 burner wood cook stove in addition to our electric range and a small (7 gallon) water heater that I'll use to bypass the 40 gallon tank - at least we'd have some hot water even on cloudy days. I also have a solar hot water preheater system and a heat exchanger in the wood heater.

The folks using propane really have only one option were it not available and that is wood gas or biogas/methane. The reality is that very few look this far ahead. One has started to plant olives for biodiesel but he isn't stocking methanol and NaOH so it's mostly talk. Essentailly no one is interested in wood gas except me. And, for a variety of reasons biogas/methane won't work for the majority of the people due to a lack of feed stock.

Todd

I agree with that general approach. I live an hour out of a city (Hobart) but the mainly hydro grid has just recently been linked to coal generation via a HVDC cable. I don't want nuthin' to do with it so for the last 6 weeks or so every meal has been microwaved or cooked on a woodstove. The electric range is just to warm quiche for soft city slickers who visit.

I thought I had the water pumping problem solved with a standalone solar battery + 12 volt pump system. However drought has dropped the water levels so I need a more powerful pump. I'm bidding for such a pump on eBay so who knows. The need to adapt never stops.

Libya: The future seems to be unfolding as many on TOD have predicted.
http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=165236

How fast is Saudi oil production declining?

Aramco Senior Vice President Abdullah Saif, as reported in Petroleum Intelligence Weekly and the International Oil Daily, stated that their fields sustain a 5 to 12 percent decline rate. Stuart Stainford, in a thread of two days ago, stated that Saudi is declining at a rate of 8 percent. Captain America, (Freddy I think), stated that Saudi declined 4 percent, 2006 verses 2005.

Well everyone is correct. Average 2005 production verses average 2006, the decline was 4.15 percent. But what is the current decline rate? From September 2005 to December 2006, according to the EIA, C+C, Saudi declined by a total amount of 850 thousand barrels per day. (And all but 50 thousand barrels of that decline was before the OPEC cuts went into effect.) That is a rate of 8.85 percent over 15 months, or 1.25 years. That gives an annualized decline rate of just over 7 percent. That is the true decline rate that also includes new oil coming on line.

Remember Stuart’s 300k barrel bump? That was caused by Haradh III, the last tip of Ghawar that was finally brought on line. So without that blip, what is the decline rate of existing fields? Well, without Haradh III the decline over that 15 month period was 1,100 kb/d. That was a decline of existing production, before Haradh III, of 11.98 percent, or an annualized rate of 9.51 percent excluding new projects.

So currently we can say that Saudi fields are declining at a rate of 9.5 percent. By December of 2010, if they continue to decline at this rate, they will need over 2.9 million barrels per day of new production just to stay even. I just don’t think that is possible.

But in the meantime we can watch for continuing decline, and continuing “bumps” as new projects come on line. I am going out on a limb and predicting that long before 2010, the decline of Saudi production will be accepted by almost everyone. (There will always be a few irrational hold outs however, after all there are still a few young earth creationists.)

Ron Patterson

This makes sense. THanks for the insight.

But isn't the Saudi rig count extremely low relative to their proven reserves? And isn't that true even if one uses some of the more conservative estimates for reserves. Might this be a situation where the Saudis spent too many years twiddling their thumbs rather than upgrading their infrastructure.

By way of comparison, look what Russia is producing with, what?... maybe 74 Gb of proven reserves?

My guess is that the KSA isn't going to be the monkey wrench in global petroleum production. I believe that with investment they can maintain high production flows. I'm guessing the more immediate problem will be Russia. Russian production seems extremely high relative to their reserves and when the decline hits, it will hit hard.

Byron, first Saudi's proven reserves is a matter of great dispute. Your tone seems to indicate that you buy into the “260+ billion barrel line”. Let me state that if that is the case then Saudi is definitely not in decline. But I believe that Saudi reserves are closer to 75 billion barrels, about the same as Russia. Saudi’s reserves are anything but proven and I am astonished that a member of TOD would believe they are.

Saudi Arabia, as of January 2007, had 74 rigs, 24 looking for gas and 54 drilling for oil. The U.S., in January, had about 1700 rigs with about 260 of them drilling for oil. The vast majority of U.S. rigs are looking for gas. So the disparity is not that great when you consider the oil producing area of Saudi Arabia, including their section of the Persian Gulf, measures about 400 miles north to south and about 250 miles east to west. That is 100,000 square miles. The U.S. oil bearing strata, including the North Slope and the Gulf of Mexico, would be at least twenty times that area.

And when you consider that the average US oil well produces less than 20 barrels per day, compared to over 3,000 for the average Saudi well, the US by comparison is way underrepresented as far as oil drilling rigs go. (I am posting from memory here. I looked up the actual numbers a while back and posted them on TOD, but I cannot locate them at this moment.)

Ron Patterson

Ron,

Actually I didn't say that I believed that the Saudis have > 260 Gb or actually imply that. I did refer to some of the more conservative estimates, some of which have been in the 140 to 190 Gb range. I think that your estimate of 75 billion barrels seems like the other extreme.

Certainly this year will be likely to reveal what the Saudis are capable of (or not).

I really don't have a position on their reserves because I have no idea. I only know what I've read here and elsewhere. I just wish that the Saudis would fess up and become more transparent. As it is, we need to plan for the worse case scenario and... oh, excuse me... we did. That would be Gulf War II, which before the end of this year might morph into GW III.

But even though I'm strickly a lay person, to give you a better feel for my personal position on all this, in my desk at work I still have a copy of the Scientific American article from the late 90's on the end of (cheap) oil. As I recall it came out shortly before the (in)famous Economist cover story on the world being awash in oil where they even speculated that oil might drop from $10 to $5 bucks a barrel.

Man, those were the good old days.

The Saudi's have 2 1/2 times the number of oil rigs they had in 2003 but are producing less oil.

It makes much more sense to assume KSA is lying about their reserves.

Remember Stuart’s 300k barrel bump? That was caused by Haradh III, the last tip of Ghawar that was finally brought on line.

Ron, I have been looking into this. That bump came several months after Haradh III came online. The plant was finished in January, commissioned in March, but the bump doesn't come until June-July. In fact, when Haradh came online, there was no inflection point at all on the curve. And before someone says "Yeah, but maybe it took them a while to get rates up." That's what commissioning is all about- getting the plant up and demonstrating rates. They were getting rates up between the time the plant was finished in January and the March commissioning. So I don't think Haradh III explains that bump.

However, the bump did correspond to the beginning of high demand season in the U.S. It also looks just like the bump that interrupted the 2001 decline, which also came right at the beginning of high demand season in the U.S.

So, count me among those who still don't think Saudi has peaked. If fact, I think you will see their decline stop by summer, and if demand picks up you will see their production head back up. If that happens, I suspect a lot of people around here are suddenly going to develop amnesia regarding all the predictions that have been made.

R^2,

I'm a lay person that frequents this sight for obvious reasons. But that said, this will likely be the summer that proves one way or the other if the Saudis can walk the walk...

BTW, considering your current location, I hope that you have an appreciation for one of Scotland's finest products. And that would be their supernatural single malts.

Is it possible that there is a time lag of 2-3 months between production and data? I could se the bump in the data from http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/ and they state that they get data from "Monthly Oil Market Report from OPEC".

That is supposed to represent production for that specific month. And unless the numbers have changed since I last downloaded the file, there is no 300,000 barrel bump in the EIA data. There is a 100,000 barrel bump in January, followed by a gradual decline until June, and then a bump up of 200,000 barrels in July.

I tell you this just does not match up with when Haradh came online. Superficially, it looks like a compelling case. Dig a little deeper and you start to see things that don't add up.

Robert,
Shouldn't there be a bump in MARCH when Haradh came online?