DrumBeat: March 19, 2007
Posted by Leanan on March 19, 2007 - 9:08am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Ethanol's Growing List of Enemies
The ethanol movement is sprouting a vocal crop of critics. While politicians including President George W. Bush and farmers across the Midwest hope that the U.S. can win its energy independence by turning corn into fuel, Hitch and an unlikely assortment of allies are raising their voices in opposition. The effort is uniting ranchers and environmentalists, hog farmers and hippies, solar-power idealists and free-market pragmatists.They have different reasons for opposing ethanol. But their common contentions are that the focus on corn-based ethanol has been too hasty, and the government's active involvement—through subsidies for ethanol refiners and high tariffs to keep out alternatives like ethanol made from sugar—is likely to lead to chaos in other sectors of the economy.
A frightening number was released by the labor department on March 15. February prices for “crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs” were 22.73% higher than a year ago. Wholesale consumer food prices were 6.8% above last year, too. Even more frightening, the February number was 29.25% higher than it was in May, its lowest point of 2006. It has all the potential of being worse and longer lasting than the consistent double digit increases we saw from mid-2003 to mid-2004.Most of the increase we saw in February is the price we’re paying for trying to buy energy independence with our corn crop. It’s a double whammy, a perfect storm of a too-quick demand on American agricultural resources to pay for decades of unbridled energy consumption and a need by elected officials to prove they’re doing something to end our dependence on tenuous Middle Eastern sources of oil.
Science shows ethanol good for America
Vinod Khosla, an Internet pioneer and the founder of Sun Microsytems, has finally gathered some honest rebuttals to the naysayers of ethanol.Here is a short commentary of what he has found: Scientists are rapidly forming factual information relative to the value of ethanol against gasoline. They have come up with an energy balance equation on how ethanol can be an advantage over gasoline.
Russians plan more nuclear power reactors
Government officials said Friday that Russia will build two nuclear reactors annually through 2015, and increase to four a year by 2020 in an effort to sharply increase atomic power generation, according to Russian news agencies.
Anti-nuclear rallies fill French cities
Tens of thousands of people filled the streets of five French cities Saturday to protest plans to build the next generation of nuclear reactors.
“Iceburg Dead Ahead, Captain!” — Saudi’s 8% Oil Decline is the Iceberg in the Titanic Disaster
U.S. decries key points at climate talks
...the U.S. spoke out against a global carbon emissions trading plan and recognizing reforestation programs in developing nations as part of the fight against global warming, he said.
A Blue-Chip Alternative Energy Portfolio
...Growing awareness of Global Warming, Peak Oil, Gas, and Uranium, and energy security worries are leading to broad interest in alternative energy among people who do not fit the typical aggressive speculator profile of people who can shrug off a 50% loss in a single holding over a short period of time.
Taking Stock of Green Energy Options
Pure-play alternative-energy stocks can be dicey. A smarter bet: The companies that will supply the infrastructure for the sector's growth.
Propane dealers learn from supply disruptions
Some of the lessons are obvious."Those suppliers who are 100 percent rail will probably diversify their supply," said Jamie Py of the Maine Oil Dealers Association. "Smaller- and medium-sized dealers are looking to put in storage to prevent these situations."
Uganda: Diesel Shortage Hits City
Most of the city's Caltex fuel stations had ran out of diesel by Friday. Luzira, Bweyogerere, Ntinda, Kampala Road and Wampewo Avenue fuel stations had no diesel by yesterday.Total gas station in Kireka ran out of diesel mid-morning yesterday, while Kobil Bugolobi had neither petrol nor diesel.
Kampala to close diesel plant and switch to cheaper heavy fuel
In a bid to curb escalating power tariffs, the Uganda government is expected to close down one of its automotive diesel oil plants in nine months and replace it with a 50 Megawatt heavy fuel oil plant, to be built at Namanve, outside Kampala, The EastAfrican has learnt.
Saudi Aramco awards contract to NPCC
According to Aramco officials, the contract includes the fabrication, transportation and offshore installation of two tie-in platforms, including two bridges, pipe spools and other associated work, and three scraper decks, all in the Zuluf and Marjan fields, offshore Saudi Arabia.
Armenia-Iran gas pipeline to open
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Armenian counterpart will formally open the first stretch of a natural gas pipeline Monday in Armenia, a landlocked country that relies on Russia for most of its gas.
The industrial revolution has created a wasteful, resource-hungry society that needs to be rectified without killing off half of the world’s population.
China’s Energy Governance: Perception and Reality
As China's economic growth begins to transform the global energy industry, getting U.S. policy toward China "right" has never been more important.
Russia: Troubleshooting Starts As Energy Loses Steam
Oil and gas exports, the bread and butter of the national economy, look to have gone a bit stale.The reasons are threefold: a strong ruble, a suffocating tax regime, and an oil price driven down by plenty of global supplies, analysts said.
Pemex CEO: Company is in critical condition
Mexico´s state oil monopoly is in "critical condition" and needs to boost exploration and seek outside expertise to replenish oil reserves that are currently set to last less than a decade, energy officials said Sunday.
Kommersant has learned that last week some of the world's leading natural gas exporters reached a final agreement on the creation of a so-called "gas OPEC." The consortium of gas-rich countries, which at the moment includes Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, and Algeria, is due to be formally organized in the Qatari capital of Doha on April 9. The appearance of such a powerful player in the energy arena will undoubtedly meet with an extremely negative reaction from the United States and the European Union.
Shale gas plays beginning to develop as new ones crop up
The shale gas plays that have fueled natural gas exploration in the last several years show little sign of abating.
Biofuels may still prove advantageous in some local applications, such as farmers using crop wastes to fuel their farms, and running cars on waste oil that is otherwise thrown away by restaurants, but as a solution to long-term energy needs on a national or international scale, the costs appear to far outweigh the benefits.
Peak Oil? Turkish Diesel is close to $300 a barrel
In Turkey, there is a popular protest against high oil prices. Some drivers stick print outs like: “Warning! This car uses the most expensive gasoline on earth”. It is not a fantasy or exaggerated protest. Turkish unleaded gasoline is around 328 USD per barrel.
Gazprom Needs $13 Bln for Power Energy Assets
Gazprom’s board of directors is going to consider the company’s new power energy strategy this week. The Russian gas monopolist plans to buy controlling stakes in two wholesale power generation companies as well as smaller stakes in three territorial power firms. Gazprom will need $13.3 billion for these purchases, according to analysts.
Can dirty old king coal manage to clean up its act?
Global warming has fuelled changes, but the industry remains Public Enemy No. 1.
The five-way contest for oil sources in Asia and Africa
The quest for energy security has become the primary and most immediate strategic concern of Asia’s two rising giants, India and China. The Middle East will soon feel the full force of this growing competition.
China to move away from energy-intensive growth
With China using 15 percent of the energy consumed in the world to produce 5.5 percent of the global GDP, it's imperative the country move from a high energy-consuming economy to one that provides for more sustainable development, said Ma Kai, head of the National Development and Reform Commission on Sunday.
Sustainable Living: Scientists have plan to fight warming
What if I told you that we already have everything we need to resolve the crisis of global warming, except action? Would you believe me? How about believing two Princeton University economists?
Climate-change cures may be worse than the disease
Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said mankind already has harmed Earth's climate inadvertently, so it's foolish to think that people can now fix it with a few drastic measures.
The April issue of Discover has an interesting article about terra preta: Black Gold of the Amazon
Fertile, charred soil created by pre-Columbian peoples sustained surprisingly large settlements in the rain forest. Secrets of that ancient "dark earth" could help solve the Amazon's ecological problems today.
And speaking of Discover, they have opened up their entire archives to the public. You no longer need to be a subscriber. Anyone can read articles like this one, from 1999: Why We'll Never Run Out of Oil.



I picked up a copy of Bill McKibben's "Deep Economy" this weekend and highly recommend it. It's an attempt to lay the groundwork for post-peak localization, especially for agriculture, and will probably make you much more hopeful for the future after reading it.
Thanks for the tip. I just ordered it from my local library.
Rick
Here's an article by McKibben from Mother Jones:
Reversal of Fortune
All the info will be old news to TOD posters, but IMO this site is an easy to read and pretty comprehensive overview of the global oil situation. One stat that jumps out at you- of the top 7 oil producing countries circa 2004, 4 (USA, Mexico,Norway and China)don't have any estimated reserves to speak of. I would think this would be an eye opener even for peak oil debunkers. http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html
Re the China article, the CIA Factbook has (on a purchasing power parity basis) China at 15% of global GDP. USA at 20%, Europe 20%.
What to make of the brief, sharp spikes of $3-5/barrel on the NYM?
Thats what Im wondering! Ive been seeing that alot the last few days...
I've been watching those spikes too and have the same question. I was wondering if these were timed automated buys at a fixed price, or if someone is trying to bump up the trade price by "pinging" the system with a step change in price. Is there any way to find out who is making these purchases? I'm not very knowledgeable about futures trading...
My data souce shows no spikes. High 57.55.
Science shows ethanol good for America
It is amazing that such drivel gets published. From the essay:
What’s the difference between a “so-called expert” and an actual expert? Well, that seems to depend on your perspective. If you are an ethanol promoter like this guy, the “so-called experts” are those who are suggesting that ethanol is not a panacea. Your “true experts” are those like Vinod Khosla who made their name in the computer industry, therefore know all about ethanol.
More drivel from the article:
Complete nonsense. The same rules were not applied. That’s why you got the answer you did, and why you should be careful of which experts you listen to.
This guy has no earthly idea what he is talking about. None.
Yes, that must be why the spot price of ethanol has been higher than that for gasoline for over 25 years in a row.
Maybe you should just state that it is true. Won’t that make it true?
I shudder to think that people are reading stuff like that and being influenced by it.
Wasn't there that saying "What is good for General Motors is good for America"? Reminds me of that one ..
My father always used a saying that applies to Khosla. " Figures don't lie, but liars figure."
<sarcasm>
Apparently it takes four times as much corn to generate electricity.
</sarcasm>
It isn't even wrong. Who was it that used to say that? Some early 20th century German physicist I think...
And you are a "so-called expert", Robert. That would be anyone whose opinion differs from the "experts" working for Mr. Khosla. I was about to post a "what orifice did they pull those figures from" rant, but I see that you already have, thanks.
Wolfgang Pauli wrote: "This isn't right. It's not even wrong" on a student's paper.
Re; the weighted balance remark:
What's he talking about ?
RR: "The same rules were not applied."
Where's a source document ?
Re; the weighted balance remark:
What's he talking about ?
You noticed that, too? I think if you asked him, he would defer to someone else. It is quite clear that he is just parroting things he heard. The weighted balance remark is nonsensical.
RR: "The same rules were not applied."
Where's a source document ?
I have written about this a number of times. I have gone back to the original source documents, and even challenged Michael Wang, the originator of this claim, on them. What they are doing is comparing a true EROEI for ethanol to an efficiency for gasoline. The efficiency can't actually be over 100%, but the EROEI can be over 1.0. That's how they get 0.8 for gasoline and 1.3 for ethanol. The EROEI of gasoline is actually 5 or 6, versus 1.3 for ethanol (when you throw in the animal feed products as BTUs).
I have addressed this claim in more detail here:
Energy Balance For Ethanol Better Than For Gasoline?
I think that will clear things up.
Thanks RR,
your link(s) me helped a lot.
Khosla is a total charlatan. "Science" also used to say tobacco is good for you and some "science" still says that global warming is not a problem. As long as so called "science" is behind an allegation, no further thought is required of the casual reader. Yes, there is plenty of land for ethanol. Unfortunately, we won't be able to eat once we have used up all that land for ethanol. Or, perhaps, they are talking about another planet.
If we could just reduce our liquid fuels consumption by 90%, then ethanol could provide all our needs. Further, given the alleged EROEI of gasoline, it clearly makes no sense to produce any more gasoline. Just think of all the oil that will save.
(GOD) Shows Ethanol Good for America
Vinod, appeals to the modern peasant's diety in hopes of winning the PR battle...
I wonder if he has a ranch in paraguay too ?
hehehehehe...LOL :-)
Re: Science shows ethanol good for America
Where do you even start with a fact-free essay like that? What kind of "expert" is the author of this piece from Aberdeen, South Dakota? The Aberdeen American News says the author is a "retired educator, coach, commercial pilot and farmer," but he apparently still believes half the middle east is mad at Americans because they're not prosperous.
Speaking of Vinod, did you all see the news that's he's putting up cash for ethanol in Brazil?
From "Paying the Price for Biofuels", in Leanan's selection today, after you get past Kosla and Gates:
We are saved!
cfm in Gray, ME
If you're a hillbilly distilling a mess of rotten apples (over a wood fire you would have burned anyway), it's energy positive. If you have to run tractors and spray chemicals and operate a large distillery, maybe not.
That and the fact that our entire corn crop could never replace more than a smallish percentage of our liquid fuel usage, makes ethanol biofuel an idea that only a politician could love.
Hi Robert,
It is clear to me that ethanol won't reverse the tide of peak oil. It is also clear to me that we have waited altogether too long to address the problems posed by peak oil. It is reasonable to try to save the oil resources as much as possible through conservation, industry, and transportation changes. But these will not be enough. If peakoil is upon us within 5 years, then people are going to die, and probably a lot of them. I understand that corn is probably the worst source of ethanol, and I won't rehash old arguments. I know you believe in some form(s) of ethanol production but are against corn ethanol.
Aren't your efforts better spent promoting those form(s) of ethanol you believe in rather than poopooing the entire industry. I believe (calm down Pit the Elder) the coming hard times will be devastating. I want to hold them off as long as possible. I can only guess that you don't have children.
Regards, Ben
From the cattlenetwork.com article above:
Energy Interdependence
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/content.asp?contentid=114477
High fructose corn syrup is going to be the bane of our society. The article is correct in that this sweetener is in almost everything you buy and it is probably the main reason for high obesity and diabetes rates in this country (USA). As a parent of young kids, I make every effort to buy things that either lack high fructose corn syrup or do not have it as #1 ingredient on the list. I have done this for health reasons in the past, but now since cost is going up, it adds another reason to stay away.
Amen to this. I am in the same boat with my kids.
I am in research in an area that deals with petfoods. I glean a lot of articles on how food impacts health, for companion animals and humans. There are lots of clues that high fructose corn syrup is contributing to diabetes and obesity. There are equal number of clue's that a lack of Omega-3 oils (from fish, flax, algae, fresh greens)in the diet is causing problems.
I would love to see a long term study (say 6-12 months) of soft drink consumption where the identicle formula is made with sucrose vs fructose and track metabolism markers and for pre-diabetes.
Coke, Pepsi, RC cola etc have been around for almost a century but high fructose corn syrup has been in them only since the 1970's (the last energy crisis time). We should grow more sugar beets in the U.S. and send the corn syrup to the distillery to make ethanol.
Same problem with hydrogenated vegetable oils. A little bit is okay but when that is the only fat source going in, maybe it's a problem. We blame health problems on sodas and snacks. Maybe it is what has been substituted into the sodas and snacks over time as much as the volume consumed.
Good thoughts.
The movie "Supersize Me" reported that (at the time) there were only 6 items on the McDonalds menu that did not have sugar (mainly fructose) in the ingredient list. We need to ask why a hamburger bun need 6 grams of sugar added to it? The cost of adding a little fructose to your bread, cracker, even to coat your french fries has historically been fractions of a penny.
Of course, increased fructose prices (due to PO and/or the misguided push toward ethanol) may acutally cause an improvement in the western diet.
"I would love to see a long term study (say 6-12 months) of soft drink consumption where the identicle formula is made with sucrose vs fructose and track metabolism markers and for pre-diabetes."
This would make a great study, though it would probably take more than a year. The rising rate of obesity and diabetes (especially type II in children) in America is alarming.
The exact impact of increasing the percenetage of fructose in the western diet is not fully known yet, but it's clearly not a good thing. Sucrose is, of course, 1 glucose and 1 fructose molecule connected via a C-O-C bond. Fructose enters carbohydrate metabolic pathways at a slightly more downstream point than glucose, and glucose has traditionally been thought of as the main sugar responsible for feedback on insulin. However, fructose's role in insulin stimulation and insulin resistance/diabetes is an area of active scientific research, and it seems clear that high levels of fructose are probably at least as dangerous as high levels of other simple sugars in inducing insulin resistance. One can, for example, induce diabetes in rats by feeding them large quantities of fructose.
THESE 1.25 MB POWER POINT SLIDES FROM THE CDC ARE WELL WORTH THE DOWNLOAD. START AT SLIDE #6 AND PAN THROUGH THE OBESITY RATE MAPS. VERY FRIGHTENING, AND YOU'LL SEE WHY OBESITY IS CONSIDERED AN EPIDEMIC IN AMERICA. Follow the link to "Power Point slide presentation format".
http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/dnpa/obesity/trend/maps/
This reminds me of a story I heard a long time ago about the restricted diet of Germans in the aftermath of WW2. The children were healthier than at any previous time because of their simpler diets; less sugar mostly.
My mother as child was heavily undernourished and therefore sent to friends in Switzerland. As much as I know, the first two winters after WW II must have been really difficult with supply of food.
The sugar-rich produced food, as far as I can tell, emerged one or two decades later in Europe....
The sad thing is, I find the products made with corn syrup I enjoy, when made with real sugar, often taste better.
Case in point, I am a Dr Pepper fiend. Absolutely love the stuff, but one day in college I was introduced to Dr Pepper made from a special bottling plant in Central Texas that only uses Imperial Cane Sugar. It is and remains the best Dr Pepper I've ever had. It has a cleaner crisper and lighter taste to it, and is in fact far more refreshing on a hot day than regular Dr Pepper.
Recently, my wife on a trip to Central Texas bought me 24 cans of the stuff and I save them for when I've had an especially bad day.
Yes, soda pop in the Carribean is still made with cane sugar since it is readily available there and the flavor is much better.
I personally have switched to the Simply... line of fruit drinks around the house. Simply Lemonade, Simply Limeade, Simply Orange Juice are all better than their competing products and are made with real sugar. My wife notes that the Simply... line of products literally flies off the shelves but they do not stock more, nor do any of the other manufacturers move to produce more sugar based drinks instead of HFCS.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
We drink a lot of Juicey-Juice at home because it's 100% fruit juice.
If Americans could kick the soda habitat, it would go a long ways towards improved health. That would of course bankrupt some major companies in this country so MSM stays away from promoting the idea.
Juicey-Juice may make you feel better or superior to folks who give their kids soda, but the body doesn't; care... it's still main-lining sugar. Fructose, fruit juice, or cane sugar... you're still drinking the same junk that leads to obesity and diabetes.
Fructose is easier for the body to break down than more complex sugars, so I don't think what you say is absolutely true. I will try to research it more tomorrow and give you some citations.
What I do is mix Juicy-Juice with about twice as much water. I'm probably getting sugar, but I'm not getting HFCS, or all the other stuff in soda.
Our house is horribly puritanical: Water or milk. The kids never really got into juice much, and we've never introduced soda except as a treat with pizza, or on a road trip...Mom & dad don't care for soda much either...
CW
Global peak: 2007 - 2010
Global decline rate, Post peak: 2%
Economic response: Severe global recession, ~5 years, then slow recovery
1. Water
2. Beer (Mich Ultra)
3. Wine (Merlot or Cab)
4. Juice (Tomato or Veg, no OJ)
5. Ethanol (Vodka)
In that order...
"Fructose is easier for the body to break down than more complex sugars, so I don't think what you say is absolutely true"
You are correct; however, sucrose (table or cane sugar) is not considered complex, it's a fructose bonded to a glucose with only one extra bond to break over fructose alone. The full e