DrumBeat: March 20, 2007
Posted by Leanan on March 20, 2007 - 8:55am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Bush pitching alternatives to automakers
President Bush will get a chance on Tuesday to smooth over hard feelings that arose last year when he twice postponed meeting with executives of U.S. automakers.In a visit that will carry symbolism for struggling companies that were once a mainstay of the U.S. economy, Bush will tour Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. factories in the Kansas City area to get a glimpse of their latest hybrid cars and pitch his alternative-energy ideas.
The green economy is booming, but you don't have to build a solar power station to get a piece of the action. There's literally a land rush on as renewable-energy companies look to secure locations for wind farms and solar arrays. If you move fast, you may be able to buy and flip the rights to the downtown rooftops and rural ridges that renewable-energy developers regard as prime real estate. There are two plays in this game, wind and solar, and each has its own rules.
Inspired to launch a renewable-energy business, [John] Plaza chose biodiesel, a clean-burning alternative to petroleum diesel that can be made from most types of vegetable oil. He cashed in his 401(k), mortgaged his home and sold his ski boat to buy a 5,000-square-foot warehouse in an industrial section of Seattle.
Beyond Petroleum: UC Berkeley Sells Out to Energy Giant
Could this be a “win-win” agenda for the University, the public, the environment, and industry? Hardly. In addition to overwhelming the University’s research agenda, what scientists behind this blatantly private business venture fail to mention, is that the apparent free lunch of crop-based fuel can’t satisfy our energy appetite, and it will not be free, or environmentally sound.
OPEC "Complacency" To Send Oil Price On Upward Spiral
The decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain its current output policy Thursday could lead to a sharp spike in oil prices, warned the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies Monday.“OPEC's complacency in Vienna has set the scene for another upward price spiral," said the CGES in its monthly oil report.
Ahead of the peak summer demand season, the group warned that "OPEC needs to raise output to let refiners boost transport fuel stocks in 2Q...Refiners will need to boost runs rapidly and to do so they will need more crude than is currently available," said CGES.
Workers hint at concessions to aid an ailing Pemex
Petróleos Mexicanos, the world´s third-largest crude producer by volume, may find union leaders open to reducing unfunded pension debt and increasing worker flexibility when contract negotiations get under way.Carlos Romero Deschamps, head of the 124,000-member oil workers union, said the time has come to tackle problems that have run up Pemex´s debt, resulted in imports of natural gas and gasoline and caused crude reserves and production to decline. In the coming weeks, the union and Pemex will begin talks to renew the current two-year contract, which expires on Aug. 1, he said.
Angola, one of the poorest places on Earth, is an oil industry darling
A corrupt, underdeveloped and war- scarred country, Angola, a West African country, is one of the poorest places on earth. But ask any energy executive and another picture emerges: a place of immense riches, solicitous of foreign investors, and among the fastest growing oil exporters in the world.
South Africa, Russia explore energy ties
South Africa is considering helping Russian state oil firm Rosneft and gas giant Gazprom in making liquid fuel from natural gas or coal, a cabinet minister said on Monday.
India not keen on binding global pact on emissions
India is not keen to sign any global agreement on limiting emissions, however, New Delhi is willing to take only voluntary steps in the area of energy efficiency and reduction of emissions. With increasing global concerns on climate change, the discussions on energy efficiency, reduction in emissions and the move to renewable forms of energy have become more intense.
Three Kidnapped in Southeastern Nigeria – Police
Two foreigners and one Nigerian were kidnapped in southeastern Nigeria over the weekend, police officials said Monday, raising fears that a spate of abductions in the country's volatile, oil-rich Niger delta region was spreading to other areas.
America's Farmers--the Arabs of the Midwest
Now, having spent my youth on a farm, I am sympathetic to farmers and agriculture in general. I have no quarrels with this price increase and the profits it brings to our farmers. In fact, I think it’s great.Clearly, though, not all would agree.
Certainly not the biofuel naysayers who saturate the Internet with deceptive stories and manufactured “data.”
Demand for oil crops forecast to increase
The predicted demand from the biofuel market for oil and starch crops from 2010 was likened to "a steamroller about to hit us", a farmers' meeting was told.
Investors Managing $4 Trillion Call on Congress to Tackle Global Climate Change
For the first time, dozens of institutional investors managing $4 trillion in assets today called on U.S. lawmakers to enact strong federal legislation to curb the pollution causing global climate change. Joined by a dozen leading U.S. companies, the investor group outlined the business and economic rationale for climate action as they called for a national policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions consistent with targets scientists say are needed to avoid the dangerous impacts of global warming.
A team of NCSU scientists and engineers says it has developed a biofuels technology capable of converting animal fats - including lipids from dead chickens, hogs and cattle - into fuel for commercial airliners and fighter jets.
Department of Energy Submits $23.6 Billion Spending Plan to Congress for FY’07
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today submitted the Department’s $23.598 billion spending plan to Congress for Fiscal Year (FY) 2007, a $45 million (0.2%) increase over the FY’07 request, as a result of the FY’07 Continuing Resolution. The spending plan will allow DOE to continue making marked progress in achieving President Bush’s goal of bringing more clean energy sources to market to help cut dependence on fossil fuels, increasing our energy and economic security and boosting competitiveness.
Report: Shell eyes other oil sands firms
Anglo-Dutch giant Royal Dutch Shell may be considering deals or takeovers of Canadian oil sands players that need access to refining, the National Post reports.
Gulf governments plan oil pipelines
Gulf governments are planning oil pipelines that would bypass the world's most vulnerable energy choke point, the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to avoid possible Iranian threats to global oil shipments.If built, two pipelines could ferry as much as 6.5 million barrels of oil a day around the strait, an amount equal to nearly 40 percent of the daily exports currently shipped through the narrow channel at the entrance of the Gulf.
Disappointments From PetroChina May Just Be Beginning
PetroChina retained its title as Asia’s most profitable company, posting record earnings of 142.2 billion yuan ($18.2 billion) for 2006. However, the results were below analyst expectations and investors were dismayed by a 13% slide in second-half earnings as costs rose and refining losses deepened....A number of analysts appear to believe that the disappointments are just beginning.
The Mexican Peak Oil Crisis: Lowest rate of oil output in seven years
Sean Brodrick at Money and Markets writes that it appears Peak Oil has affected Mexico, as, “In December 2005, Mexico sent the U.S. 1.7 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). This past December, Mexico only exported 1.2 million bpd to the U.S.”
New maps may unlock giant "heavy oil" reserves, expert says
Some of the world's largest—but hardest to reach—oil reserves could be tapped with the help of a little-known scientific field called rock physics, a Canadian scientist says.
As water grows scarce, nuclear power can help
Because nuclear power produces large amounts of energy without emitting global-warming gases, it is drawing increasing attention. But it also can play a key role in dealing with another environmental problem that we can't afford to ignore: water shortages.
Uganda: Fuel Shortage Gets Worse
MTN's spokesperson Tina Byaruhanga said telephone communication is not likely to be disrupted, unless the shortage persists. MTN Uganda uses 150,000 litres of diesel per month to run more than 350 base stations countrywide.
Understanding Empire: Hierarchy, Networks and Clients
The Somali experience in failed empire-building reveals another even darker side of imperialism: A policy of ‘rule or ruin’. The Clinton regime’s failure to conquer Somalia was followed by a policy of playing off one brutal warlord against another, terrorizing the population, destroying the country and its economy until the ascent of the Islamic Courts Union. The ‘rule or ruin’ policy is currently in play in Iraq and Afghanistan and will come into force with the impending Israeli-backed US air and sea attack on Iran.
Official defends editing climate papers
A former White House official accused of improperly editing reports on global warming defended his editing changes Monday, saying they reflected views in a 2001 report by the National Academy of Sciences. House Democrats said the 181 changes made in three climate reports reflected a consistent attempt to emphasize the uncertainties surrounding the science of climate change and undercut the broad conclusions that man-made emissions are warming the earth.
Spending on forecasting can offset climate warming threat
Every euro spent on weather forecasting technology can bring sevenfold savings in dealing with the consequences of climate change, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said Monday.
Ex-CIA chief says U.S. must act on climate
The United States must act to cap its emissions of greenhouse gases and join the fight against climate change or risk losing global leadership, a former CIA director said in a report released on Monday.
Bill McKibben: Global warming knocking at your door
If you take global warming seriously, for instance, the prospect of using 36 calories of energy to grow and transport one calorie of California lettuce east doesn't make much sense. Peak oil and climate change alone may mean that the economy will grow gradually less national and global, and more regional and local.
Esso/BHP could put carbon under sea
The gas conditioning plant is required to treat new production from the Kipper gas field. The downside is that it would emit a million tonnes of CO 2 every year. While not quite in the same league as a coal-fired power station, this is not the right approach to achieving urgent CO 2 reductions.
The scientifically unsustainable theories of global warming are bad enough without the ecoalarmists who fabricated the myth in order to justify oil price gouging by the oil barons to curb the demand for oil.
DOE solicits more oil for U.S. reserves
The U.S. Department of Energy announced its aim to buy up to 4 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.The two sites that may receive either some or all of the additional reserves are the West Hackberry, La., site, and the Bryan Mound, Texas, site. Energy Department will accept bids through April 3 and make final decisions by the following week.
India to build 5 MT crude oil strategic reserve
India will build its first strategic crude oil storage of 5 million tonnes by 2012 and will raise it to 15 million tonnes in the next phase as part of steps to ensure energy security, the Rajya Sabha was informed on Tuesday.
China may build strategic oil reserve in Lanzhou to store Kazakhstan crude
China may select Lanzhou in northwestern China's Gansu province for the Phase II strategic oil reserve programme, to store crude from Kazakhstan, the official Shanghai Securities News reported, citing a China National Petroleum Corp advisor.
The Effects of Rising Fuel Costs on U.S. Trade
The dollar/oil relationship must be maintained to keep the dollar as the International Reserve Currency. However, the price of oil is expected to rise steadily as the supply/demand imbalance increases and the value of the dollar declines. Rising oil prices result in increasing inflation, negatively impacting the global economy, particularly oil-dependent economies such as the U.S. An increase in inflation could negatively affect the demand for the U.S. dollar. If the demand for the dollar decreases substantially, the dollar/oil relationship could be challenged by the major oil producing countries.
Norway: Arctic reserves are key energy supply, but environment must be protected
"If the U.S. Geological Survey is right, 25 percent of the world's undiscovered petroleum reserves could be found in the Arctic. Thus, the Arctic region could be part of the solution to the growing energy needs of the world," said Oil Minister Odd Roger in opening a conference on the northern region.
Canada to end oil sands aid, add green-car rebates
Canada's minority Conservative government, pressured to do more on the environment, will phase out some oil sands tax incentives, introduce rebates for hybrid vehicles, tax gas guzzlers and subsidize renewable fuels.
Oil, shipping gain as Arctic warms
Global warming, blamed for melting polar bears' icy Arctic habitat, could be a boon to the shipping and oil industries in the far North, according to a new U.S. report.
Kremlin May Force BP To Share Oil Venture
BP has warned western investors that it could soon be forced to share control of its highly profitable Russian joint venture, TNK-BP, with a Kremlin-controlled energy group such as Gazprom or Rosneft.
Oil Technology Still Poor in Nigeria
THE Senate President, Chief Ken Nnamani has regretted that even with the creation of the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) in 1973, use of update technology as the key to the transformation of Nigeria's oil and gas industry is lacking, hence leading scarcity and conflicts invariably.
Switchgrass: Ideal for Biofuel?
In the quest for economically viable cellulosic ethanol, switchgrass has garnered attention as a hardy, low-cost energy crop. While cellulosic ethanol is still agreed to produce emissions benefits over corn-based ethanol, and while the adaptability of switchgrass to different growing conditions remains one of its virtues, some farmers who have grown switchgrass say the crop's cost of production can be considerably more than corn.
Red Queen Update
We haven't talked about natural gas for awhile - here are a couple of things to ponder:
1) Canadian crunch: From Baker Hughes, we have the following:
Canadian NG rig count:
2006 year-on-year increase in rigs (percentage):
Q1 was 128 (+31%)
Q2 was 42 (+23%).
Q3 was -21 (-5.0%)
Q4 was -125 (-29%)
Now, to 2007:
Q1 so far: -190 rigs (-34%) (first 11 weeks compared to same in 2006)
Q1 so far -78 rigs (-17%) (first 11 weeks compared to same in 2005)
Since July 2006, year-on-year Canadian NG rigs are down an average of -128(-27%) per week, and accelerating:
...............07 count........06 count.....YOY........%change
2/2/07.........431..............592........-161........-27%
2/9/07.........409..............576........-167........-29%
2/16/07........397..............596........-199........-33%
2/23/07........368..............579........-211........-36%
3/2/07.........344..............561........-217........-39%
3/9/07.........305..............558........-253........-45%
3/16/07........208..............526........-318........-60%
The decrease in the later period is presumably due to break-up (early spring).
Let's assume Canada's NG production profile per well is similar to that of the US, i.e., declining 40% or so in the first year. The 30% decrease in drilling activity should then result in a (30%) x (40%) decrease in Canadian NG supply, or about 12%. That's 2.5 billion cubic feet per day, given total Canadian production of about 20 billion cubic feet per day. Presumably, that gas won't be exported to the US, meaning Canadian exports to the US (currently a bit less than 10 billion cubic feet per day) will drop by 20% in the near future.
2) Barnett shale red queen: The Barnett shale, in the vicinity of Dallas/Fort Worth in Texas has been one of the "saviors" of US natural gas supply in recent years. It is a source of unconventional, tight gas, i.e., fracturing needed, high capital costs, high initial depletion rates. According to the Texas Railroad Commission:
Barnett Shale - Gas Well Gas Production –
January 2004 through December 2004 = 380 Bcf
January 2005 through December 2005 = 495 Bcf
January 2006 through November 2006 = 571 Bcf
For 2005 production accounts for 9% of Texas
Production.
Drilling Permits Issued –
January 2004 through December 2004 = 1,387
January 2005 through December 2005 = 2,006
January 2006 through December 2006 = 3,180
So, the number of drilling permits issued went up by 60%, and the gas produced went up by 15%. And this is basically the best we have in the US for natural gas supply at this moment! Makes you go "hmmmm".
Thanks for the update I saw a survey report last week indicating 42% of U.S Natty producers would reduce drilling if the price was less than $7.50 per MCF. At current pricing they are indeed not expanding, not treading water but creating a potential big problem for the fall. However the Estrogen Choir on CNBC is singing the praises of lower prices.
You need to know the decline from all existing wells, which is less than the new ones... If drilling activity drops 100%, production will not decline 40% because the avg well declines say 25%. In this case, and given that canadian production was previously flat yoy, a 25% rig reduction results in a 6% decline, or, with half exported, a 12% decline in exports, say 400bcf.
The 160 canadian rigs didn't disappear, they migrated south. US avg in 06 was 1290, now 1440. Nice of them, we need around 10% more each year to stay even; however, as you note, canadian production is going down, and meanwhile tar sands will take maybe 300bcf more in 07. My latest guess is that canadian exports will decline 700bcf...
Where can you get current canadian production numbers?
I think that's exactly what I said (you say 12%, I say 12%), isn't it? I probably did overplay my hand a bit, but if drilling activity drops to nothing, the production will go down somewhere in the neighborhood of 40% - take a look at this (albeit for the US) -
Follow the line downward from 2004 to 2005 (i.e., no drilling), and you find that roughly 20 bcf/d out of the 50 bcf/d has vanished, i.e., 40%. Part 2 of my comment suggests that all these rigs are being dumped into the US just to maintain production, so the loss will still be there.
The most current Canadian numbers I used were EIA, but I'm sure there's a source in Canada that's more up-to-date.
Thanks for posting the chart. I've seen it before, but printed it this time.
I think you might be looking at 2 years... 32% means what it says, look at the slope of the line dividing 05 and 06.
If canada is the same, and if they previously had enough rigs to hold production steady around 6600 bcf, then a loss of 25% rigs will cut yoy production 8%, or around 500bcf. Of course this means that exports will go down this amount plus any increased consumption, and I separately heard that tar sands will soak up at least 300bcf more this year, so I now expect exports down 800bcf, a little less than my earlier guess of 1tcf.
Also worth noting that every year new wells decline at faster rates as we drill into eg tight sands, so even tho production has held steady on account of more rigs drilling more holes the slope is steepening, exlaining why we need more rigs every year. The trend averages 1% higher/y since 1990, but is accelerating, from say .5% higher/y to over 1% higher/y now. IMO we are the coyote that ran off the cliff, and is just now beginning to look down.
http://www2.nrcan.gc.ca/es/erb/prb/english/View.asp?x=449 has some useful Canadian natural gas production numbers. They have a different pdf file for each month.
I notice that the data source you give shows that US natural gas imports from Canada were down 5% for the year 2006, compared to 2005. This was before the drop in rig counts.
It should be an interesting year. We should be able to tell by mid-summer if Saudi Arabian oil production has peaked, because inventory draw-downs cannot continue for long and they will likely be called on to increase their production to meet rising demand. In the same way, we should learn the truth about our natural gas production situation.
Natural gas in storage last week was at 1516 Bcf, 11.6% above the five year average, which would be 1358 Bcf. This comfortable number is still well below last year's figure of 1840 Bcf. If Canadian exports to the U.S. continue to fall by 5%, that would be a drop of 18 Bcf per month. If U.S. production continues to fall by 2%, that will cost us another 40 Bcf per month. This means that in less than three months we are likely to drop down to the five year average, and by the beginning of the winter we will drop below the bottom of the average range, which would be a bad thing. The decline figures of 5% for Canadian exports and 2% for U.S. production are not especially high estimates, as previous TOD posts have postulated U.S. production declines in 2007 as high as 7%.
With winter ending, the natural gas storage numbers will not be pushed around as much by the weather, and we should be able to track the supply and demand situation fairly closely. There will be a clear call for more North American natural gas this year. We will see if it can be delivered.
I don't think us ng production will decline this year, rig count is up enough to maintain prod. However, the rigs came from canada, now down 25%. Their production looks to me to be down 8%, or 500bcf, and with tar sands increased demand 300bcf would mean exports down 800bcf, but accelerating into winter.
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Issues/2007/DR031907.html
The finance guys know about peak oil more than we think.
Thats Agora with Byron ->http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/ByronKing.html
and Marc Faber by the way. Its not really mainstream (?),
at least the two guys mentioned belong to the small known clique of us "fringe peak-oilers".
The little article on growing switchgrass caompared to corn really suprised me after reading so much about how switchgrass will grow anywhere without fertilizer and with very little inputs of any kind.
How is it that farmers calculate that they can grow swithgrass for about twice the cost of growing corn?
Chalk it up to lack of experience. Switchgrass is being grown in the county just east of me as fuel for a powerplant in Ottumwa, Iowa. Yields are only 3 tons/acre about 1/4 of projected potential.
Switchgrass grown in a monoculture has limitations, a better energy source would be a diverse mixture of native prairie plants approximating the original prairie in a given area. In the northern tallgrass prairie, switchgrass is a minor component with "big bluestem" as the dominent grass and "indiangrass" playing a lesser role. The hope for switchgass was genetic modification for super yields, probably from companies, Monsanto and the like, so the large agri-business players could profit. The key to the prairie is plant diversity and with this comes natural soil building and sustained fertility. With a proper rotation schedule, the prairie could be harvested for biomass and maintain a dynamic soil indefinitely without fossil fuel inputs.
This is a link to the DesMoines Register article on switchgrass that is referenced in the article.
http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070318/BUSINES...
It sounds like they are using a lot of fertilizer and herbicides, both derived from fossil fuels, and the yield is quite low.
This is a link to the Berkeley study that indicates that Cellulistic ethanol can be expected to have a very favorable energy return.
http://rael.berkeley.edu/EBAMM/
If you "Download the Model" from this site, it gives an Excel spreadsheet showing how much of various inputs and outputs are expected.
This is also a quality link to the possibility of cellulosic ethanol. The key is to use some, not all of the biomass each year (think buffalo on the prairie).
Carbon-Negative Biofuels from Low-Input High-Diversity Biomass By Dr. David Tilman and others
http://www.agobservatory.org/library.cfm?refid=96611
I have been asked several times how the water usage in an oil refinery compares to that of an ethanol plant. I documented that calculation today:
Water Usage in an Oil Refinery
An oil refinery uses 0.5 gallons of water per gallon of crude. The ethanol plant uses 4 gallons of water per gallon of ethanol.
This is just an FYI in case you ever need a reference for this information. I have been asked about it via e-mail several times over the past year.
Ugghh! That's a lot of water... especially if ethanol production keeps growing. Do you happen to know how much, if any, is recycled, or is it "lost"?
In an oil refinery it is treated and discharged. I would imagine that it is the same in an ethanol plant. But the problem is that fossil aquifers are being drawn down. So, even if 100% of the water is treated, the current situation is unsustainable.
Water is recycled, by the way. The numbers I quoted are just the make-up water inputs. The internal water usage for both would be somewhat higher.
Robert
any idea how many gallons of water is required for a gallon of oil from oil sands?
It might be a very intersting analysis to determine how water consumption will change with the change in fuels mix over the next 5 years.
Water is the "ne plus ultra" commodity.
we take it for granted in north america.
the largest users by a wide margin are agriculture.
so if we have to decide between water for farm irrigation and water for ethanol production, who wins?
any idea how many gallons of water is required for a gallon of oil from oil sands?
I have seen that number, but I forget what it was. Higher than 0.5 gallons per gallon of oil production. I think it was in the range of 1 to 2 gallons per gallon of oil, but don't quote me on that.
http://www.energybulletin.net/22348.html ...
'The study says that strip mining in the oilsands requires two to 4.5 cubic metres of water to extract one cubic metre of synthetic crude oil.
The water becomes heavily polluted in the process and only 10 per cent is returned to the river, with the rest held in huge storage ponds that are among the largest manmade structures on Earth.
"These environmental damages related to bitumen production … could eventually affect an area about one-fifth the size of Alberta, or about the size of England or Greece, since this is the extent of the deposits," the study says.'
I believe from other sources that the actual water usage is somewhat greater.
Correct. I've seen 3-5 barrels of water for every boe.
This may have been where I had seen the reports of 1-2 gallons of water per gallon of oil:
http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Archives/2006/20061113.html
He doesn't cite a source, though. This is one of those touchy areas for me, though, because my company is pretty heavily involved, and I have a difference of opinion as to whether we should be doing this. So, I am going to bow out of further discussion here.
It's about four in most reports. And of course the industry claims increasing re-use of water, but as they recycle perhals 10% these days, what does that add up to? The tailings ponds can by now be seen from Mars, I'd guess.
There's no shortage of water in the midwest, so water won't stop the ethanol madness here, but water could certainly be the nail in the coffin for other areas where there is less rainfall and where the corn already has to be irrigated to get the desired yield.
Really? Where do they get it?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogallala_Aquifer
I did a quick report for a food supply paper and ran into info on the largest aquifer in this country getting depleted. This adds to my concerns about peak oil and peak about everything else but uranium.
Whoa...Peak Uranium was in 1980.
Source: World Nuclear Symposium 2006
We are using recycled bombs to make up the shortfall at the moment.
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It's all about population!
This statement is taken totally out of context and mistakenly implies that we are near a uranium peak similar to the oil peak. Here are some statements from the linked article that are actually representative:
So after the uranium "peak", prices dropped rapidly. Hmmm..
Oil companies probably spend several times this much every year on exploration! Note that in the late 1990's, uranium exploration expenditure was around $10 million a year, a pittance. If you don't look for it, you don't find it.
So we saw maximum production in 1980, but that was because no one wanted to buy extra uranium for the decade after 1980. If the market isn't there, the uranium is not produced!
The situation with uranium until recently was like what would happen with oil if, for some reason, the Soviet Union and the West had stockpiled about 200 Billion barrels of oil in something like the SPR, and then decided that they needed to sell down these stockpiles. Imagine the reaction of the oil markets to a 20 million barrels a day sell off from the SPR, and the likelihood this could continue for 20 years. Imagine how many marginal oil producers would throw in the towel as oil prices plummetted.
When I get a moment I will look into this further, as I certainly may have made the mistake of misunderstanding the nature of the 1980 production peak.. but...then why are we using recycled bombs for fuel?
Is it easier to handle the bomb material than mine new material?
I ask this since I really don't understand this aspect.
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It's all about population!
First, START and other disarmament treaties made excess uranium less useful.
Second, Pu239 is vastly superior for weapons purposes if you can do a decent implosion.
My mistake...it is a false production peak...lack of demand.
Analysis: Demand to stress uranium supply
Of course, this should not diminish the fact that there is a significant amount of production to be made up, especially with so many new reactors being discussed/planned.
Thanks for pointing out my mistake.
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It's all about population!
Hmmm....why am I reading articles about unexplored parts of Australia and America for that matter? I'll have to dig back through and post some stories, but from what I have been reading, we have plenty of uranium in the ground, it's just not being actively mined.
Yes, and Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the Universe!
It's true!