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DrumBeat: March 21, 2007
Posted by Leanan on March 21, 2007 - 9:05am
Topic: Miscellaneous
U.S. Attack Against Iran Would Push Oil Above $100, Yamani Says
Crude oil would soar above $100 a barrel in the event of a U.S.-led attack against Iran, Sheikh Ahmad Zaki Yamani, the former Saudi oil minister, said today.Yamani gave no prediction as to the likelihood of a conflict with Iran. He told a conference in London that Saudi Arabia doesn't want to see oil slip below $40 a barrel and that OPEC favors crude closer to $60.
Bodman: 'Not Uncomfortable' with OPEC Output Plan
U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said Tuesday he's not uncomfortable with a plan by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain crude oil supplies at current levels until September.
Pakistan port opens new possibilities
Energy-hungry China is eyeing Central Asia's oil and gas reserves and is increasingly looking to Pakistan for oil and gas supplies. Beijing plans to run at least five oil and gas pipelines to Gwadar from the Central Asian republics and wants to turn the facility into a transit terminal for Iranian and African crude-oil imports.
Safe Climate Act Best Chance to Avert Dangerous Climate Change, Scientists Say
More than 120 House members today will reintroduce the Safe Climate Act, which offers the best opportunity to protect future generations from the worst effects of global warming, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The bipartisan bill, spearheaded by Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), calls for an 80 percent reduction of global warming pollution from 1990 levels by 2050, a cut that UCS scientists say is necessary to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.
ConocoPhillips Tries to Buy Into 'Big Oil U' in Greenwash Campaign
ConocoPhillips, with a $6 million gift to the University of Oklahoma's School of Geology and Geophysics, is the latest oil giant seeking to buy respectability by capitalizing on the name of a well-known university, the Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights (FTCR) said today.A deal at Stanford University funded by ExxonMobil, and another proposed by BP at the University of California Berkeley are already facing criticism as examples of "Big Oil U".
Randy Udall: Comments to the National Petroleum Council
The NPC has a wonderful opportunity to reframe the discussion around peak oil. After thoroughly studying the evidence, I hope that you conclude, as many of us have, that peak oil is near. If that is your conclusion, I urge you to communicate that finding in succinct, sober language. It's time to speak truth to power. Likewise, if you conclude that peak oil is a chimera, and those of us that were on the last call are grievously mistaken, chronic pessimists, nervous Nellies, please say that, loud and clear.
U.S. Interior to Work with Lawmakers on Extending Gulf Leases
Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne endorsed efforts today by two key senators to extend Gulf of Mexico oil-and-gas leases by three years in an attempt to either recoup lost royalties or institute price thresholds on leases from the late 1990s.
Venezuela to Open Opegasur to Middle East, Asia
Venezuela will invite member countries in the gas-exporting countries' forum (GECF) to enter Opegasur, the OPEC-style organization for natural gas producers the South American country is promoting.
Palm oil it is for S. Korea's Enertec
"We're sticking to our plan to use palm oil as our feedstock," Enertec managing director Mckin Lee Jin said."We find palm biodiesel the only green fuel that can really be considered sustainable.
Gore takes his warming warnings to Congress
Former Vice President Al Gore brings his push for government action on global warming to Capitol Hill on Wednesday, testifying in both the House and Senate.
Science turns sun, surf into green energy
A REVOLUTIONARY technology that uses sunlight and sea water to produce an unlimited supply of clean, hydrogen fuel could be developed within a decade, Sydney researchers say.Leigh Sheppard, of the University of NSW, estimated that 1.6 million of the solar devices, installed on rooftops, would be able to produce enough hydrogen gas to supply Australia's entire energy needs. While other energy options under discussion, such as nuclear power, produce harmful wastes, the only by-products of this solar hydrogen technology would be oxygen and fresh water, Dr Sheppard said.
£25 fridge gadget that could slash greenhouse emissions
It is made of wax, is barely three inches across and comes in any colour you like, as long as it's black. And it could save more greenhouse gas emissions than taxes on gas guzzling cars, low energy light bulbs and wind turbines on houses combined. It is the e-cube, and it is coming soon to a fridge near you.
More Efficient Wind Turbine Blade Designed
A new wind turbine blade design that researchers at Sandia National Laboratories developed in partnership with Knight & Carver (K&C) of San Diego promises to be more efficient than current designs. It should significantly reduce the cost-of-energy (COE) of wind turbines at low-wind-speed sites.
Asian fuel oil volatile on low grades, tight storage
Poorer quality fuel oil flowing into this region and limited storage space are expected to spark wild price swings in Asia this year and could lead to sudden supply disruptions.The problem will last until additional tank capacity is available by the end of the year, offering traders more space to blend cargoes that do not meet industry specifications into retail-grade quality, industry sources said.
Colorado: Trouble down the pipe has stations on empty
Signs saying “Sorry, Out of Fuel” greeted motorists at some Diamond Shamrock gas stations Tuesday, a repercussion of a Feb. 16 explosion and fire at a Texas refinery that supplies the Pikes Peak region.
Canada Moves to Phase Out Tax Break for Tar Sands Producers
Canada announced intentions yesterday to phase out the tax break for oil sands producers that allows them to write off investment costs, setting a final deadline of 2015 for the changes.
Despite some obvious complications, it appears that a “gas OPEC” will formed in a matter of weeks. Yet the effect of a natural gas cartel doesn’t pose any short term threat, and it raises the question, “Why bother?”
PEMEX Starts Operating in Panama
Mexican Oil (PEMEX) began operating in Panama to distribute and supply oil to the ships passing across the Panama canal, official sources reported on Tuesday.
Government allocates land for refinery in eastern Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has allocated land to two companies that plan to build a 400,000 barrel-a-day refinery in the eastern port city of Jubail, the official Saudi Press Agency reported Tuesday.
China 'to become world's largest economy by 2038'
A host of factors could constrain China's ability to become a superpower in the future, including limited supplies of energy and raw materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and corruption, risks to social stability and the environment and its choice of political system.
Ducks Unlimited fights for land reserves
The fear is that during the current energy crisis, farmers will be urged to grow crops to be converted into biofuels, at the same time driving up land prices and forcing farmers to weigh the dollar amount offered for a CRP vs. the money that could be made if they jumped into the biofuel pool.
Power prices put utilities in the hot seat
Spurred by skyrocketing power bills, lawmakers in at least six states are considering reining in electric utilities that were freed from regulation in the late 1990s.
Not Your Mother's Solar Power Anymore
Slowly (often far too slowly for our patience), costs continued to decrease, until we at last trumpeted the revolutionary $5 per watt panel in 1994.Regrettably, prices have not fallen appreciably since then, and as a result the domestic solar electric industry is experiencing a midlife crisis as it approaches its 50th birthday. Even manufacturing gadflies will admit that PV is having a tough time finding a boom market in North America, primarily because the government is not getting involved.
Ghana - The Power Crisis: a Real Mess
Subsequent to what appeared to be a temporary power rationing to ease pressure off the sources of electricity supplies to meet the country's energy requirements, Ghanaians have now come face to face with what obviously is a national energy crisis.
Moscow won’t support “excessive” Iran sanctions
Russia will not support “excessive” sanctions against its economic partner Iran, the foreign minister said on Wednesday, as the UN Security Council considered imposing harsher measures intended to push Teheran to freeze its nuclear program.Sergey Lavrov also denied allegations that Moscow has told Iran it would not deliver nuclear fuel for the Russian-built Bushehr nuclear plant unless Teheran complies with the United Nations’ demands.
Ethanol isn't worth getting pumped up about, but oil shale might be
There are no easy answers, but we can develop new sources of power. First, though, we need to move past one attempted solution that simply isn't working: ethanol.
Bush appointees 'watered down greenhouse science'
The Bush administration ran a systematic campaign to play down the dangers of climate change, demanding hundreds of politically motivated changes to scientific reports and muzzling a pre-eminent expert on global warming, Congress was told yesterday.
NYMEX to offer clean energy futures
The weighted indexes will incorporate biomass, wind and solar companies as well as firms in energy efficiency and environmental controls.
Which green car is best? - Automakers using a range of technologies to improve fuel economy
Canada auto emissions incentives seen ineffective
A Canadian government plan to offer rebates for fuel-efficient vehicles and heavily tax gas-guzzlers will do little to change consumer buying habits and curb emissions, industry observers and environment groups said on Tuesday.
Bush, Edwards, activists focus on global warming
Environmentalists rallied on Capitol Hill, President George W. Bush pushed fuel economy and White House hopeful John Edwards unveiled a new energy plan on Tuesday, focusing on global warming a day before Al Gore was to testify to Congress on the hot political topic.
Utility chiefs wary of emission limits
Top executives of some of the country's largest electric utilities gave guarded support Tuesday — or at least said they were not opposed — to mandatory carbon emission limits to deal with global warming.Still, the executives expressed concern over the potential for huge electricity cost increases, depending on how such emission limits are imposed.
Bush seeks to scrap current ethanol standard
The Bush administration has proposed scrapping the current U.S. renewable fuels standard that requires ethanol use to reach 6.8 billion gallons a year in 2010 in favor of a wider alternative fuels requirement that aims to cut America's foreign oil dependence.
Increasing use of biodiesel could fuel canola explosion
Field crop growers looking for a viable alternative to wheat, corn and barley may soon find their answer in canola.
Syncrude: Ottawa could break oil sands' back
Canada's government needs to be wary of putting too many demands on Alberta's oil sands for fear of derailing the runaway success enjoyed over the past decade, one of the sector's most senior executives says.
The hasty EU membership of the Greek Cypriot state and the continued deadlock in Cyprus peace talks are all related to the existing energy potential in the region.
EU trying to solve renewable-energy 'headache'
Officials said that the Commission was still unsure about how it will share the burden among member states, after EU leaders agreed earlier in March to have 20% of their overall energy needs covered by renewables by 2020.
Despite Climate Concerns, Germany Plans Coal Power Plants
European Union states agreed earlier this month on a binding 20 percent cut in CO2 emissions by 2020. Yet over 20 coal-fired power plants -- major producers of greenhouse gases -- are planned for Germany.
Creating a cartel of gas exporting countries would hurt producers and consumers alike, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.
BP refinery probe cites poor OSHA oversight
The U.S. agency responsible for worker safety failed to inspect plants with enough care and frequency to prevent an accident like the 2005 explosion at BP’s Texas City refinery that killed 15 people and injured 170, a government report said Tuesday.The final report on the nation’s worst industrial accident since 1990 also blamed BP for cost cutting that left the plant vulnerable to catastrophe.
Going beyond petroleum proved to be a fatal error
Why did Britain’s biggest industrial enterprise treat a core business unit with such indifference, dare one say contempt? Did they open the door too wide to antiindustrial green zealots or was it the constant harping of City and media scribblers that cash invested is cash wasted?The CSB report is a sad end to the Browne era. It will have done some good if it reasserts the importance of massive and dangerous industrial processes in keeping us lit, warm and comfortable.
Some people seem to think that the world can be powered by windmills and controlled by clicking a mouse.
It’s not true.
Saudi Production laid bare
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2372
For those who were involved in the Saudi debate 2 days ago I’ve now posted this chart along with several others at the foot of the thread. I managed to screw up my HTML code archive and lost the ability to post charts yesterday. I’d also add that the site started to run very slow on Monday – so apologies to those who were wanting a response but didn’t get one – I assure you I was not hiding☺
Those with heart disorders had best take some blood pressure pills before following this link.
Euan, in your post you turned down Stuart's $2000 bet, but you did not make a counteroffer. Why not? It's clear that you and Stuart have a fundamental disagreement on Saudi Arabian oil supply, so why not stand up and be counted and put some real money on the line? If you and Stuart can't agree on a bet that both of you would accept, then perhaps your positions overlap so much that the outcome of such a bet is not a good financial proposition?
As Robert pointed out when he offered a $1000 bet on oil prices a few months ago, people tend to behave differently when real money is on the line. Their arguments weaken as they start negotiating the terms of the bet. They want a sure thing, so the event they end up betting on is often far afield from their original claims. This is when everyone else finds out what they truly believe.
Also he is restarting a post where everyone pointed out he only used data up to 2005. Like proving the US production didn't peak by only using data up to 1969.
Saudi Arabia’s Rapidly Thinning Oil Columns and Smart Well Installations
From Saudi Aramco’s press kit page 11
http://www.saudiaramco.com/sa/webServer/presskit/press_kit_full.pdf
”Technological Advances
Smart Wells and Intelligent Fields:
Smart well systems and down-hole sensors are part of a larger strategy to develop “intelligent fields,” an approach that combines real-time monitoring and timely reactions to changing well and reservoir conditions to optimize production and reservoir management. Overall, the company completed 24 smart well installations in 2005 (versus two the year before), and 55 maximum reservoir contact (MRC) wells, more than double the year before.”
To perform the above they needed one of these, a
”Geosteering Operations Center (GOC):
To further exploit the technological gains of horizontal, multi-lateral and MRC wells, Saudi Aramco opened the Geosteering Operations Center (GOC), where geologists and engineers remotely guide drilling activities in real time, around the clock, helping ensure that every well is optimally situated.”
In 2004, Saudi Aramco completed two smart well installations. In 2005, they completed 24 – that’s a twelve fold increase in one year! The world’s first smart well installation was in 1997 for SAGA Petroleum in the Snorre Field, Norway.
http://www.halliburton.com/news/archive/1997/hesnws_090497.jsp
Why do we need smart wells?
According to Martin Madsen, Production Engineer Visund, Statoil,
http://bergen.spe.no/doc/1%20day%202006/Presentasjoner%20PDF/Peer%20Gynt...
”– Compensate for different reservoir properties
•Pressure, PI etc
– Balance inflow
– Close / choke back zones with high GOR or WC
– Save intervention (time and money)
– Take into account the unexpected”
Point three above is important as zones with gas or water breakthrough can be closed or choked back using “above ground” controls. In other words, in these zones the column of oil is too thin to extract. (GOR – gas oil ratio; WC – water cut)
Smart well studies by Baker Hughes
http://www.bakerhughes.com/bakerhughes/water_management/completion_IWS.h...
state that the use of smart wells can increase ultimate recovery by 53%. The main reason for this is the improved ”management of undesirable fluids”.” (The undesirable fluid is water.)
On an annual basis, from 2004 to 2005, Saudi Aramco has a twelve fold increase in smart well installation completions from 2 to 24; and a two fold increase in MRC well completions to 55. (would be nice to have 2006 data – Haradh Increment III was completed in early 2006 with 32 intelligent MRC wells – intelligent=smart. I don’t know if these 32 wells are partly counted in 2005 data)
The huge increase in smart well installations and MRC well completions from 2004 to 2005 strongly indicate that Saudi Arabia is now extracting its last remaining oil reserves – difficult to extract oil from their rapidly thinning oil columns. Saudi Arabia's oil production rate may already have passed its peak.
For more information about smart wells - this website is good.
http://www.welldynamics.com/technology/installations.htm
Welldynamics have installed 228 smart well up to October 2, 2006. They state that this is more than 50% of the world's smart wells so it could be assumed that there are about 400 to 450 smart wells worldwide.
This is a link to Shell's snake well technology, (I think a type of smart well as it uses smart technology). The video on the right is worth playing. It states that without this technology the oil was previously inaccessible.
http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteId=technology-en&FC2=/technology...
Hello Ace,
Excellent info--thxs for digging this up! I am not sure if it is RR's or SS's keypost that will hit TOD first, but I recommend you repost this in that comment thread pronto. It is too good to be 'lost' in a late Drumbeat--needs more eyeballs in a new KSA discussion. Good job!
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thanks, I will repost!
That's one interpretation. An alternative interpretation is that
i.e. the payback more than justifies the extra expense, and therefore the use of smart wells, in itself, tells us nothing at all about the amount of remaining oil.
Both interpretations can be true: Saudi Arabia is extracting its last remaining oil reserves and ultimate recovery may increase by 53%.
Smart MRC wells are required for thinning oil columns. These thin oil columns may be able to produce for a long period of time but it's difficult to reach oil. These fields need to produced very carefully.
Who knows, next the Saudi's will be using in situ steam flooding as they do in Alberta tar sands. The tar sands reserves are huge but converting them to production is tough.
Calorie, fair comment. Myself, New Account ± Robert did offer an alternative wager:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2330#comment-166269
We're still waiting for Stuart to respond - but you're right, at this level it begins to smack of splitting hairs.
Othewrise on the investment front I am more or less out of the market - as much because my crystal ball is currently full of fog WRT unravelling the impact of recession upon demand and price for commodities.
Euan, I just posted a comment on the stacked Saudi production forecast chart near the bottom of yesterday's thread - it is a very scary chart IMHO. Is it really based on the Saudi's own forecasts of their production ? Is there a source reference for the data for that chart ?
It actually _shows_ a peak in Saudi production, and the very beginning of decline. The problem is that oil companies have historically had terrible track records at predicting the actual decline rates for their fields. So I have to assume that the actual decline rates will be higher than shown.
It is also the worst kind of "hockey stick" chart - it shows a sharp discontinuity in trend lines, which is a big red flag in any business I have been in. "Sure, we are flat-to-declining", but everything will be great 'tomorrow'".
Yikes!
CW
Global peak: 2007 - 2010
Global decline rate, Post peak: 2%
Economic response: Severe global recession, ~5 years, then slow recovery
Am I reading this right?
1. Productivity fell from 1980 to 1990, be it by above ground constraints (oil price, resting wells etc) ... except for a pumping spike (maybe associated with a show of strength, or may be in response to the Iran-Iraq war?)
Or maybe it fell because the North Sea and North Slope came on stream at full bore.
2. Oil flattens at 6 k per well thereafter.
3. A horizontal well campaign commences circa 1991 (BTW: Such a campaign would have required about 2-4 years of pre-drill planning, tech analysis, G and G work up and drilling services procurement, etc)
4. Campaign commences, Productivity remains flat at 6k per well.
All that drilling, no improvement...
I can only assume that when KSA decide to turn on the taps and utilise the new productivity due to the HD campaign which ramped in 1996, then the oil will flow like a cornucopean's wet dream :-)
Or maybe they were running to stand still even in 1990?
Nice graph Euan.
Jeez Euan, this is just dandy! Not to show my frustration. Your attempt to analyze SA spare capacity by getting a handle on well productivity was creative. This latest data though takes the contention from your article and stands it 180 degrees on its head. As a bonus, we find that with all the horizontal wells the peak will not likely be a gentle, pretty downslope, but much closer to cliff. Thanks for putting my mind at ease about PO ;)
Here's something else to smile about if it hasn't been caught earlier:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=aKfnFfrQZo8M&refer=e...
best wishes all.
ZDPM123
You might be surprised to know that I don't fully agree with you here. The watering out of a handful of wells near term will have negligible effect on Saudi production. Many of the horizontals drilled in the last 15 years will already have watered out - so that kind of activity is already in the data. Looking to the future, all these wells are spread among more than 10 producing fields of varying maturity - so there will be no cliff edge.
A very good perspective to keep for decline rates (from a pro-peak analyst):
(from pg 2 of 3 http://www.energyfiles.com/articlesfiles/Resource%20Depletion%20(Oct%202006).pdf
This is observed in the "slow" decline rate for the lower 48, e.g. I would expect Saudi Arabia's _net_ decline rate to be pretty slow, at the start...
CW
Global peak: 2007 - 2010
Global decline rate, Post peak: 2%
Economic response: Severe global recession, ~5 years, then slow recovery
Hi Euan,
re: "Looking to the future, all these wells are spread among more than 10 producing fields of varying maturity - so there will be no cliff edge."
Are you sure about this? (Not to question you. Just wondering...)
TOD has experienced an intense discussion of KSA's ability to increase or maintain production. Almost all of the discussion has focused on the existence / lack of existence of new prospects and the stage of depletion of the sweet spot in the Arab D formation in various parts of Ghawar.
The discussion has not gone into the existence of stacked pays at Ghawar and other developed fields. The U.S. has had something over a million and half wells drilled over the past century and a half. The target zones for most of those wells were not realistically expected to produce thousands of bbls per day for decades. It doesn't take thousands, hundreds, or even one hundred of bbls per day to justify drilling a 5000 foot onshore oil well in close proximity to other oil field infrastructure.
My question [which may relate more to the probability of a fat tail to the right of peak oil than to the peak itself]: Do stacked pays in existing fields represent a major part of the future of production for the KSA?
re:
"Do stacked pays in existing fields represent a major part of the future of production for the KSA?"
Perhaps you might re-post this, as no one seems to have answered - ?
Ha! My (admitted limited) experience with new & infill horizontal wells is that they produce on the order of 20k bbls/d, at least initially, but also decline faster. So if they have to drill that many horizontal wells to keep their average well productivity level... all their older wells must really be going to shit, and I'd say a lot of the horizontal wells drilled prior to 2000. (Unless of course they were drilling the horizontals but not using them as Euan suggests... damn theres just too much we don't know!)
Question is how much longer can they keep exponentially increasing the number of horizontal wells drilled just to hold average well productivity steady? Not much longer I'd say, but again, given currently KSA as a whole has a miniscule number of drilling rigs compared to say the US, there is a lot of room for increases, so "not much longer" could be 5 years or so...
Minneapolis suburbs once spurned Light Rail, now "Not soon enough"
http://www.startribune.com/462/story/1061295.html
When Hennepin County began studying prospects for a southwest-Minneapolis light-rail link in 2003, residents in Eden Prairie and Minnetonka organized a "trails without rails" effort to stop the train from displacing the bicycle and pedestrian trail on the old railroad right-of-way the county owns.
Local business boosters didn't see any opportunities for development under the planned residential route, said Pat MulQueeny, president of the Eden Prairie Chamber of Commerce. "The initial reaction was, this doesn't make a whole lot of sense to us."
But the popularity of the Hiawatha Line, which opened between downtown Minneapolis and the Mall of America in 2004, changed attitudes, said county planner Katie Walker.
Now all four suburbs are asking why they have to wait for the completion of other projects, such as the Central Corridor light rail linking Minneapolis and St. Paul. That's scheduled to start in 2014.
"The southwest metro has been an economic engine for the region and we would like to see if there is a way to speed up the timeline for this to get done," MulQueeny said...
"I just think it can't happen fast enough," said St. Louis Park Mayor Jeff Jacobs.
Best Hopes,
Alan
There were announcements this month that plans for an extensive rail project in the Denver-metro area have hit a snag. The project will cost considerably more than originally expected and some proponents are calling for privatization to fill in the gap.
Originally the FasTracks program was presented to voters as a $4.7 billion project and now it is being reported that the expected cost overrun will be $2.5 billion. I am guessing that figure will climb much higher. About 9 months ago at a community FasTracks meeting someone in the audience (a local yokal version of Ralph Nader) relayed some startling information including citations of local transportation analysts who concluded that when all subsidies were factoring in the true cost to taxpayers would be at least $11 billion. Cost overruns will push this figure even higher.
I don't know if this situation is an isolated case for big rail projects, but it seems that in the rush to get these projects off the ground there is a lack of transparency that needs to be addressed so average citizens can understand how potential obstacles will impact their communities.
More at Global Warming panel makeup questioned
(ht armed kitty)
cfm in Gray, ME
Some guys in Australia are very positive about making hydrogen from seawater
Anybody knows what this is?
A decades-old idea of using Titanium dioxide as a photocatalyst for splitting water.
And a local paper fluff piece.
What's the reputation of the University of NSW?
Is that a real U or one of those others?
The University of New South Wales is a major university in Australia and probably a fine institution. The researcher is probably intelligent as well, although I haven't studied his bio. He estimates years of work ahead.
The issue is the reporting. Since very little information is conveyed, the article is designed to make you feel good:
They have an exceptionally good Philosophy Department.
But they only admit people called Bruce.
Departmental drinking song:
''EEEmanual Cant was a realy pissed chap who was very rarely stable.
Eidegger Eidegger was a boozey beggar who could drink you under the table.
David Hume could out consume poor old Fredric Hegel...''
etc.
Now adopted by most philosophy undergrads the world over.
Except France. Where they still insist philosophy is a science.
Cant is written with a "K" - Kant, and Eidegger with a "H" - Heidegger, german guys.
D*mn! Back to the potato farm then.
the philosophers song: (for those interested)
http://bau2.uibk.ac.at/sg/python/Scripts/ThePhilosophersSong
is not a piece that UniNewSouthWales has any special claim to. Monty Python made it famous in the 70's and i'd put money on it being sung loudly in prestige Pommy university Arts Department's parties prior to that.
One of the best in solar PV efficiency technology. I think they hold current world records on p-type and n-type efficiency.
Verbose post alert:
Looking back at conversations about parts of the Ghawar field in the last couple of days, I came across this comment by the reservoir engineer Fractional_Flows:
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2372#comment-170594
My attention was drawn to this statement:
“The [Simmons] critique is a bunch of drivel that doesn't get any closer to the actual problem- which is 4 MMBOPD [4 million barrels/day] at Ain Dar/Shedgum and Uthmaniyah resting on the precipice”
Further up on the same thread was this: http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2372#comment-170481 which discusses, amongst other things the equation “So + Sw + Sg = 1”
Fractional_Flows also states that current water saturation levels at Ain Dar/Shedgum are 53%, up from 50.5% at the beginning of 2004 and increasing at an annual rate of 1%.
A couple of comments later, this statement: “there is a technique to calculate water cut behavior as a function of water saturation and hence oil producing rate it is called the fractional flow curve” . Searching for information about Fractional Flow Curves yielded this: http://www.ipt.ntnu.no/~kleppe/TPG4150/BL.pdf which might as well be written in Greek as far as I am concerned.
Searching the internet for more detail about the individual fields within Ghawar, I came across http://www.gregcroft.com/ghawar.ivnu, from which I derived a comparative table for the various fields (which I am finding impossible to post in a functional format).
The table shows that the Haradh field and its oil are inferior in every single way to the more northern fields in Ghawar – lower API, higher sulphur, higher viscosity, lower porosity and permeability, lower average net thickness of reservoir, lower Formation Volume Factor (what does that mean?) and lower Average Productivity Index in bopd/psi (again, what does that mean?). Interestingly, all of the above factors hold true as one moves from north to south across the Ghawar structure.
There was an animated discussion yesterday about the veracity or otherwise of Aramco’s claims about future production from Haradh III. Having looked at the table described above, it strikes me that Haradh III is largely an irrelevance whether Aramco’s claims are true or not.
I have speculated in recent days that Saudi Aramco may be running low on reserves of high API, low sulphur crudes produced from high porosity, high permeability fields. "Running low" begins to look ominously like "is beyond peak production of".
Logically, it makes sense to me that Aramco would have sought to produce from these fields first. Looking at the statistics in the table referred to above, I am filled with a sense of dread – Haradh, as a single field, looks vastly inferior to the northern Ghawar fields, and it further strikes me that Haradh III must logically be inferior in characteristics to Haradh I and II, both due to its more southerly location and to the fact that it was developed last.
If Haradh III represents the “best of the rest” (which logically it should), what do the rest look like?
The best case scenario I can envisage is that there are big undeveloped fields out there which contain high sulphur, low API crudes, but with relatively high permeability and/or porosity. The reason that such fields would not yet have been developed is that current global complex refining capacity is not sufficient to refine such crudes without producing an excess of low-end products such as Fuel Oils and Bitumen, and that therefore the relative value of such crudes to Saudi Arabia is far lower than higher API , lower sulphur crudes.
Is there any information out there that would substantiate this "best case scenario"?
More questions than answers, for which I apologise, but as a layman in these areas I welcome feedback from those with greater knowledge and skills than I posses.
Thank you for your post bunyonhead.
I'm so tired of cornicopians(and debunkers) dancing around slapping each other on the back as if they just proved SA has light sweet crude to last 1000 years. It's like watching Nero play while Rome burns.
Nice post and kudos for digging deep...
Your conclusion is similar to what Dave Cohen has echoed on occasion. It is looking to me like the Saudi's are post peak on on the light (32-38 API) sweet stuff, however, they do have some extra capacity for the unmarketable heavy stuff. My take is that the Manifa project, 800 kbpd (?) slated for 2009 is aimed at satisfying Saudi internal demand from Vanadium rich unexportable oil; the goal is to free up exportable grades that fetch a hefty premium.
A while back you pointed out the strange behaviour in the Brent and Tapis contracts. Asian refiners, or more accurately, those with limited heavy sour capacity, are getting squeezed. This may well be the the start of the Peak Oil price signal from the markets (aside from the obvious contango). I personally don't recall when there was a Brent (38 API) premium to WTI (37-42 API). Although Brent can be substituted for delivery at Cushing, the contract states that the buyer will get a $0.30 discount. So it is pretty