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DrumBeat: March 23, 2007
Posted by Leanan on March 23, 2007 - 9:04am
Topic: Miscellaneous
DINNER was the usual affair on Thursday night in Apartment 9F in an elegant prewar on Lower Fifth Avenue. There was shredded cabbage with fruit-scrap vinegar; mashed parsnips and yellow carrots with local butter and fresh thyme; a terrific frittata; then homemade yogurt with honey and thyme tea, eaten under the greenish flickering light cast by two beeswax candles and a fluorescent bulb.A sour odor hovered oh-so-slightly in the air, the faint tang, not wholly unpleasant, that is the mark of the home composter. Isabella Beavan, age 2, staggered around the neo-Modern furniture — the Eames chairs, the brown velvet couch, the Lucite lamps and the steel cafe table upon which dinner was set — her silhouette greatly amplified by her organic cotton diapers in their enormous boiled-wool, snap-front cover.
A visitor avoided the bathroom because she knew she would find no toilet paper there.
Some rethinking nuke opposition
"No Nukes" was once a familiar rallying cry for environmentalists opposed to nuclear power and all its scary risks.With global warming a rising concern, some environmentalists are rethinking nuclear power because it emits zero greenhouse gases.
"You can't just write nuclear off," says Judi Greenwald, director of innovative solutions with the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, an environmental research and advocacy group. "I think everybody feels you have to at least look again" at nuclear power.
Is Hugo Chávez Mr. Misunderstood?
He roams Latin America, hurling insults at President Bush, sneering at the United States as the enemy "empire" and spending billions in oil money to undermine Washington wherever he can.To many Americans, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez seems a Latin wild man. But to the millions of Venezuelans who adore him, he is the first leader who genuinely cares for the nation's poor majority, a welcome departure from politicians who traditionally catered to the elite.
How you'll pay for renewable power
Many have wondered if and when renewable energy will be cost-effective.But when it comes down to your electric bill, the short answer may be: Who cares? The government may make you buy it anyway.
Bill McKibben says we're stuffed
The supply of fossil fuels that has put an end to scarcity in much of the Western world and continues to drive the dizzying economic growth of China and India, McKibben argues, is "a one-time gift." And rather than continue to gorge, we ought to be investing our surplus in figuring out how to live on less.
Peak Oil Passnotes: Market Disconnect 2
If supply and demand were in some kind of balance that just needed leaving alone, we would live in paradise. Unfortunately for neo-classical economists their narrow view of human existence - and the economic theories that emanate from it - fails to take into account people like OPEC, Gordon Brown and the American driver.
Of course CheneyBush are still in favor of the war. They are doctrinaire imperialists, so how could they be otherwise? Their plan was to assemble a staging area within the middle east from which to scourge tinpot regimes throughout the region, exploiting the petroassets of any and all, preparing against that day when "peak oil" was understood to have passed by during 2004. The CheneyBush plan was to "finesse" the civil discord in the region and make as much of a bloodbath of it as the residents could stand. Every dead Arab, in their view, was a dead terrorist or terrorsymp. We can be assured that left to their own
TSR Raises Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Season
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College London, has increased its forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2007.Based on current and projected climate signals, TSR's March forecast predicts Atlantic basin and US landfalling hurricane activity to be about 75% above the 1950-2006 norm in 2007, rising from 60% above norm (TSR long-range forecast issued December 2006). This is the highest March forecast for activity in any year since the TSR replicated real-time forecasts started in 1984.
The elasticity of oil production and consumption
Classical economists still insist higher prices will bring out increased production sufficient to give us the oil we humans need.
Opec will meet global oil demands: president
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries yesterday tried to soften global concerns about decreasing oil supplies, saying it was committed to providing enough for world consumption.“Opec is committed to ensure steady, secure supplies of crude oil to all consumers at affordable prices both now and in the future,” the group’s president Mohammed al-Hamili said here.
US experts seek India, China entry in global energy system
Three US experts have suggested bringing the emerging major oil consumers, such as India and China, into the global energy system as a key diplomatic strategy to secure the stability of American oil supply.
Report to feds on oil shale development due this month
A federal task force mandated to recommend to Congress and President George W. Bush how the government can accelerate the development of oil shale and tar sands may have its report ready by the end of the month, a U.S. Department of Energy official said this week.
Rahall Pans Effort to Extend Gulf Leases to Recoup Lost Royalties
Rep. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.) said the proposal floated by the Interior Department in the Senate is not strong enough to get companies to play ball. "I think we ought to be more forceful," Rahall said in an interview yesterday. "We ought to be more demanding of what the taxpayers are owed."
Kurdish oil move could signal start of Iraqi energy rush
A scramble for Kurdish oil licences is expected this summer after Ashti Hawrami, the oil minister for Iraq’s Kurdish region, said yesterday that he wants to achieve a production goal of one million barrels a day by 2012.The Kurdish move signals that Iraq is poised to open its doors to foreign oil investment.
Venezuela's PDVSA to begin US$5 billion (€3.75 billion) bond offer next week
The upcoming bond issue comes amid speculation by some industry analysts that PDVSA, despite soaring revenues from high oil prices, is facing a cash flow problem and turning to the financial markets for capital.
Greenhouse-friendly Airbus to halve its fuel use by 2020
Airbus vice-president, environmental affairs, Philippe de Saint-Aulaire, said the manufacturer was looking at airframe improvements to provide about 25 per cent of the reduction, while between 10 and 15 per cent would come from engine manufacturers."The remainder, about 10 per cent, will come from air traffic control - to ensure there are more direct flights, to ensure that aircraft are not (circling) around the airport before they land," he said.
Seoul seeks to widen economic ties with Middle East to IT sector
Amid rising oil prices, the president's trip is also expected to provide an opportunity to expand South Korea's practical partnership with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in the fields of energy resources, infrastructure construction, defense industry and information technology, the aides said.
‘Africa must set alternative energy agenda’
Many of the plans being considered by African governments, including huge hydropower dams and fossil fuel plants, were simply “more of the same”, UN Environment Programme executive director Achim Steiner told a development conference in Kenya.Many would be able to supply the huge appetite of industry and city dwellers on the world’s poorest continent, he said, but they would “lock in” the rural majority to decades without power.
The car of tomorrow is here today
Before joining the staff of the Union of Concerned Scientists, I worked as a consultant for the major automakers, so I know first-hand that they can do better. Working with other UCS vehicle experts, I recently designed a "virtual" vehicle that combines a number of pollution-cutting technologies under one hood. Our blueprint, which we call the Vanguard, is not a hybrid. It doesn't use fuel cells. It merely puts together conventional off-the-shelf technologies that can already be found piecemeal in more than 100 vehicles on the road today. Installing these technologies in everything from two-seaters to SUVs could cut their global-warming pollution by as much as 40 percent. Adopting the Vanguard "package" in California alone would be the equivalent of taking 19 million of today's vehicles off the road.
Nevada lawmakers hear good news from solar, geothermal power companies
Nevada is making steady progress toward becoming a national leader in solar and geothermal energy, state lawmakers were told Thursday.
China's Hu heads to Russia urgently seeking fuel
Chinese President Hu Jintao goes to Moscow on Monday, confidently offering trade deals with an economy roaring back home, but urgently seeking oil, gas and assurance as the two countries eye each other's resurgent power.Hu's three-day state visit to Russia will be his third as president, showing how seriously Beijing is courting its neighbor and President Vladimir Putin. Above all, Russia has the energy supplies China needs to fuel its growth.
U.S. Congressional Research Service: Ethanol and biofuels
Issues facing the U.S. biofuels industry include potential agricultural "feedstock" supplies, and the associated market and environmental effects of a major shift in U.S. agricultural production; the energy supply needed to grow feedstocks and process them into fuel; and barriers to expanded infrastructure needed to deliver more and more biofuels to the market. This report outlines some of the current supply issues facing biofuels industries, including the limitations on agricultural feedstocks, infrastructure constraints, energy supply for biofuel production, and fuel price uncertainties.
The Deception Behind Oil's Future
Oil prices over the next ten years are going to alter the way our world operates. Peak oil is the reason. Oil companies may denounce peak oil as a "myth," but in a few short years they'll have nothing more to hide behind.
Analyst: Labor Hunt Will Drive Offshore Driller Consolidation
A growing labor shortage in the offshore drilling industry will be a major driver behind any consolidation that might occur, Raymond James & Associates analyst J. Marshall Adkins said Thursday.
The Volt grabbed headlines, lit up online chat boards and dominated the buzz at the auto show in Detroit.There's just one problem: The Volt may never get built.
Production depends on advances in battery technology that could be years away. The uncertainty led to intense debate within GM over whether it was wise to show the Volt in Detroit. And now that the world's waiting for GM to deliver what could be the biggest environmental breakthrough so far this century, company officials are actively trying to temper expectations.
Global Warming Response — Markets or Taxes?
Perhaps the time has finally come to revive yet another radical idea: a carbon tax, which charges anyone who burns fossil fuels for the problems that ensue.
Richard Heinberg: Bridging Peak Oil and Climate Change Activism
The problems of Climate Change and Peak Oil both result from societal dependence on fossil fuels. But just how the impacts of these two problems relate to one another, and how policies to address them should differ or overlap, are questions that have so far not been adequately discussed.
Russia pledges to help Namibia develop nuclear energy
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov said this week that his country is ready to help Namibia develop its uranium deposits to generate nuclear energy in the country, Namibian Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) radio reported.
Green Electronics – Do They Matter
With concerns growing about global warming and peak oil, squeezing greater efficiencies out of consumer electronics is bound to be a larger issue.Or is it?
Potential Solutions to Peak Oil Crisis
The potential consequences of peak oil are for now a matter of projection but the early signs can already be seen. Last year's hike in energy prices is just one symptom of fossil fuel scarcity and it is clear that as depletion continues costs for producers and consumers alike will continue their increase.
Mystery of the Missing Meters:
Accounting for Iraq's Oil Revenue
Heavily armed soldiers spend their days at the oil terminals scanning the horizon looking for suicide bombers and stray fishing dhows (boats). Meanwhile, right under their noses, smugglers are suspected to be diverting an estimated billions of dollars worth of crude onto tankers because the oil metering system that is supposed monitor how much crude flows into and out of ABOT and KAAOT - has not worked since the March 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq.
A horse and buggy will be more useful than a Hummer after the fall, says UA Professor Guy McPherson.
"Brown is playing games on oil just as he is on income tax. When Brown talks about falls, they are not real falls they are only corrections from his original forecasts," he said."Indeed the chancellor is becoming as bad at forecasting oil and gas revenues as he is at estimating the cost of the London Olympics."
EU biodiesel firms blame politicians as demand falls - Politicians blamed for not delivering promised tax relief
Many new biodiesel plants have been built in recent years, but many of them have hardly any markets in which to sell, as several countries have been slow to implement promises to increase biofuel use.
Catholic Bishops Slam Brazil Ethanol Growth Plan
Roman Catholic bishops warned on Thursday that a rapid increase in cane ethanol production in Brazil could have a devastating social and environmental impact in the countryside.
US energy secretary says pipeline could help Iran build bomb
US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman has called for the planned Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline to be abandoned, saying it could help Iran build nuclear weapons, according to a report on Friday."There have been talks among Iran, India and other countries about finding ways of developing Iran's oil and gas assets," Bodman was quoted by the Hindu newspaper as saying.
"If that is allowed to go forward, in our judgment, this will contribute to the development of nuclear weapons," Bodman told reporters, the Hindu said.
"We need to stop this," Bodman said after attending a discussion on "Indo-US Nuclear Cooperation" organised by a business group in Mumbai, India's financial capital.
The Baghdad government has caved in to a damaging plan that will enrich western companies.
ADM: Canadian biofuels could stall on clawback
A Canadian government proposal to claw back biofuel subsidies from profitable processors could backfire and discourage investment in the sector, a vice-president of Archer Daniels Midland said on Wednesday.
Warmer world puts squeeze on U.S. maple syrup
Long skeptical of claims that the planet is warming as a result of human activity -- the release of greenhouse gases through the burning of fossil fuels -- syrup-maker Doug Rose said he's started to wonder...."We're seeing production go down, we really are."
The doors swung open and he made his entrance with cameras clicking, the wooden politician denied the presidency and derided as "Ozone Man" was coming home to the Capitol. But this time they called him a movie star and likened him to a prophet.
Some people think that our planet is suffering from a fever. Now scientists are telling us that Mars is experiencing its own planetary warming: Martian warming. It seems scientists have noticed recently that quite a few planets in our solar system seem to be heating up a bit, including Pluto.
New efforts to predict when polar ice will melt
The loss of sea ice in the Arctic may have reached a "tipping point" that could "trigger a cascade of climate change" reaching much farther south. As Arctic warming accelerates, polar waters could become ice-free by the turn of the century, or, under one scenario, as early as 2040.
As an addendum to yeesterday's HL debate, I thought it looked like several people assumed that Hubbert himself used HL to make his famous prediction, which is not the case. Hubbert used production profiles from many fields and added up all the small curves to get his big curve. HL was invented by Deffeyes, and named "Hubbert Linnearization" bu Stuart Staniford. Strictly speaking, it should be called "Deffeyes Linearization."
After reading the responses in yesterday’s HL thread, I have decided to take a break from TOD. While some people clearly understood what I was doing, I felt that there was far too much aspersion casting, insinuations of dishonesty and cheating, and just generally nasty responses that had absolutely nothing to do with my argument. Some people reacted in far too personal a way. As I am in the middle of a very stressful job (this week has been particularly difficult and hectic), and I have been separated from my family now for 6 weeks (with another 10 weeks to go), I have enough stress in my life without requiring more. At this point, I am dropping the HL thread and won’t be responding to any more comments.
I want to make it very clear that I am not looking for praise, or for people to blindly agree with my conclusions. What I am looking for are some reasoned arguments to the examples I provided, and especially some real examples indicating when the HL would have worked to predict peak, and why the parameters would have identified peak at that time. While there was a fair amount of good discussion, here is a sampling of some of the vitriol directed at me:
Admittedly, I do not have thick skin and sometimes I bite back (although I don't bite first). Anyway, I have reached my quota of gratuitous insults for a while. Imagine that after you spent 6 or 8 hours writing an essay - as a volunteer whose purpose here is to promote awareness of peak oil and energy issues - that those were some of the responses you received. Yet this has been a pattern every time I challenge certain arguments.
Deceitful? Cheating? Junk? Some people react as if I had slapped them in the face and they just lash out without attempting an actual rebuttal of any of the arguments. That is why I liken some of these positions to religious faith. If you have staked out a position in which you have on blinders, allowing entrance only to evidence that supports your position, you have the makings of a faith-based position. There are many here who fall into that category, and those are the ones who respond with the most vitriol.
Anyway, hope everyone has a great weekend. I am going to take some time off and re-evaluate what it is that I actually think I can accomplish here, and whether my efforts might be better served doing something else. And please, I am not looking for people to respond with flattery and such. I am in fact as uncomfortable around praise as I am around insults. I would rather just discuss the data.
Enjoy your time away...read some good books...watch the sun go up and down.
Rick
Robert,
Sad to see you off on what I hope is only a TOD sabbatical. FWIW I thought your article on HL was excellent (indeed I was one the few who "Dugg" it) and I was disappointed by some of the responses from people who I would have expected more of, based on their contributions to date on TOD. They know who they are.
I hope we will see you back soon, and certainly no later than the end of summer, by which time I expect answers to have been given regarding Saudi production. For what it's worth, I expect them to ramp up to 9.5 million or so in response to a demand-driven price spike. It will be interesting to see how long they can go at that rate if the price does not drop again. We shall see.
Enjoy your much-deserved break.
Re: That is why I liken some of these positions to religious faith. If you have staked out a position in which you have on blinders, allowing entrance only to evidence that supports your position, you have the makings of a faith-based position. There are many here who fall into that category, and those are the ones who respond with the most vitriol
I think of it as a selection bias which, in turn, supports a faith-based position. When you argue with people about their religion, then you are likely to get called names — or worse. For example, people have been known to nail others up on a cross, if they've got one handy.
Just my excuse, then. Sorry I was out of line there, I should have thought before writing. I'll think it over, and if I have something clever to add, I'll post that. Next time I'll keep the wordings more courteous! Have a nice weekend!
Uninformed lurker warning.
I've found the posts over the last few weeks really fascinating, though was disappointed with the personal nature of the HL discussion. Have a good break Robert. Seems to me the points to be taken from these discussions are:
HL should not be used to predict URR
HL, with informed guesses on URR, may be used to predict peak
There is no situation which will fit HL perfectly, all curves must be worked to fit available data
We do not know the URR of KSA
The decline in output of KSA, combined with increase in drilling, combined with increase in horizontal and advanced drilling techinques are potentially very worrying
Of course, I'm just a lurker, and not as knowledgeable as most of the posters here. But thanks to the Oil Drum for my understanding as it is.
I think that's an excellent summary.
Robert:
Just want to extend a note of appreciation for your posts, both the HL post and the prior work on ethanol. Your contributions will be missed.
Best Regards
As a frequent reader and infrequent contributor, I think it's very sad that one of the most distinguished contributors should be subjected to such abuse. Constructive criticism is always valuable but what Robert has quoted above does not fit that definition in any way. I do not blame him for reacting as he has - I would probably do the same myself.
I think it is only appropriate to extend the same thoughts to WT and Dave Cohen. Robert's work was not judged any harsher than the others. When you put yourself out there, you need to expect critics.
First I stand by every statement I made about the post no problem this is a crappy post. It has obvious problems. I've said the same in private and make no apology in public.
Good arguments questioning HL can and have been made this is not one of them.
If personal attacks have been made I'm sorry.
And I'm done with the post.
I didn't read your comments on Robert's "crappy" post. In fact, I didn't even read the post.
Hubbert modelling provides a non-physical view of the oil supply. I've always thought that if one was going to write about the oil & gas business, one should know something about it, including the oil price, which depends on the economics of supply & demand, or various "aboveground" events or factors. Many things can disrupt a Hubbert curve. Never let reality get in the way of a beautiful theory. Furthermore, reserves growth does happen. The US is the best example of that, being the most mature oil province in the world.
There is a problem with assuming a normal distribution (as in Hubbert modelling) for global oil production, which can only follow from a mathematical result called the Central Limit Theorem. Not the least of these problems is what one defines as "oil". Another problem is what one defines as the domain for the analysis in cases where one is dealing with something smaller than the whole Earth. But if one is talking about our happy, little Planet, the factors I talked about in the paragraph just above are paramount.
I was in the habit, when I posted here, of talking about pertinent and important details about the oil & gas business, and mentioning specific fields or trends. That was not (apparently) a popular thing to do, at least with the "regulars" who comment on this site. I could care less.
If you or others insist on carrying out this mediocre, simplistic mathematical analysis, so be it. But, that's all the worse for The Oil Drum, which becomes more marginalized as a result. Try a creaming curve, sometime. Look at how the people whose livelihoods depend on this (in the oil business) do things. Reflecting a bit, this is a civilization in decline. I can always find examples, like much of the discourse on this website, that are "close to home".
"If you or others insist on carrying out this mediocre, simplistic mathematical analysis, so be it. But, that's all the worse for The Oil Drum, which becomes more marginalized as a result. Try a creaming curve, sometime."
Dave,
Good, relevant points on HL. However, there's an important facet to the issue of HL and modeling that I haven't seen brought up much.
Is TOD an experts-only forum?
What I mean by this is that, if it's only for those with the background to really dig into the geophysics and assorted heavy-duty modeling approaches, than it should be stated as such. From what I gather, many here aren't experts in petrogeology or the operation of an oil company, but are people from many walks of life who are seriously trying to understand the underlying issues, and look forward to those moments when the experts communicate something meaningful to help them better grasp the problems at hand.
Robert stated that he's interested in educating people about the real problem of Peak Oil to hopefully give them what amounts to the "real story" (if you will) to help in making a well-informed decision about whether-or-not to act (these aren't his exact words--but I gather from what he said that it's something like this). Or, is his focus just for the experts, the ones who care about, and have the background for understanding, all the little details and whatsits involved with developing an iron-clad case for peak-now or peak-later? Or is it both?
"this mediocre, simplistic mathematical analysis"
You stated it yourself. Mediocre and simplistic might be the strongest features going for HL, because those words suggest that HL might be the easiest model for the greatest number of people to follow. Think about it. If many folk are having trouble understanding HL, then it's likely they'll even have more trouble understanding a model that's more complex. Would the general population be more convinced by the simple model, or more complex one? The answer, of course, isn't straightforward or necessarily obvious. People themselves are complex. But I think you can get the gist of what I'm suggesting here.
What's your audience? What will make the greatest number within this audience at least accept the potential dangers enough to give Peak Oil serious consideration?
-best,
Wolf
Re: Good arguments questioning HL can and have been made this is not one of them
I don't mean to mischaracterize your position. Apparently, you have not drunk the "kool-aid" ala Jim Jones. Sorry if I misrepresented your views in my zeal to mock a mathematical, abstract simplification of a complex reality — world oil production.
Well then Dave lets see the "real deal". I can only assume that there are many other models out there, perhaps they are propriotery, but the debate on Huberts curve bugs you guys so much then lets see something better. I'm no petro guy but can follow most of what goes on. I thought fractional_flow was like a breath of fresh air and I also noticed very little debate from you senior guys. He said ghanwar(sp?) was 70% depleated, that is huge! and there was very little comments to the contrary...
I think it is very easy to understand oil is finite for most people, especially those in the US where we now import 60%+/- of our oil and have our youths involved in a nasty(oil) war. Most people can follow that oil must reach a peak in extraction and decline, just like the US.
I have tried baiting this question before with no response, so I will try again. I think alot of people are tired of the bickering, and I think this includes you. I have a solution...
IF YOU THINK HUBERTS CURVE IS A BAD MODEL THEN SHOW US SOMETHING BETTER.
A good model, in my view, would be along the lines of those developed to predict the economy. (Many of which currently say we are headed for recession). Of course, greater attention would have to paid to oil supply and demand issues than might be common at present.
I think that's why you see so many negative comments. Because those people are the ones most likely to respond. I agreed with what you wrote but didn't respond because I didn't really have anything to add.
One thing your posts did do is to get me to take a closer look at HL. I had never really paid much attention to it before since I'm really not concerned with predicting a date for the peak. I don't think I'll be convinced of the date for the peak until after the fact. Then I'll be able to look back and say, yes there was the peak. But there's just too much uncertainty before the actual peak to be able to predict it. That's not to say that some people won't make good educated guesses.
I've taken a brief look at the HL graph and I don't see how anyone can think it can predict URR. The point where the line intersects the x axis increases with each new data point. It's an interesting graph to look at and think about, but it really isn't very useful.
Robert Rapier,
I am new to TOD and want to thank you for your hard work that has led to a fabulous discussion in the last few weeks about peak oil. Your "bravery" has brought other experts into the fold lately, what a great education for the layperson like myself. I now realize peak oil is certain, we can look upon this as the end or a great new opportunity, I choose the latter.
Robert,
While you are pondering the amount of energy you can devote to TOD, please keep in mind that there are a lot of us who read the debates, and the posted comments are not always a fair representation of the "community". If the critical mass of TOD veers away from data and analysis and is driven by something more evangelical, then its usefulness would be greatly diminished.
The HL thread was obviously an emotional marathon. I hope that the experience, as unpleasant as it was, will not drive you away permanently. Your articles and commentary have always been spot on, grounded in evidence, and are the strength of this site.
I guess Robert and I can now argue over who first decided to take a sabbatical from TOD. I was trying to at least take a sabbatical, when the HL discussion popped up again. Following is what I just posted over on the HL discussion:
The Role of Oil Companies in Post-Peak Regions
For the purposes of this discussion, crude oil = crude + condensate.
The Lower 48 and the North Sea started showing a strong linear pattern on their crude oil HL plots in 1954 and 1988, respectively. The Lower 48 peaked in 1970, the North Sea, in 1999.
The HL data from 1954 to 1970 and from 1988 to 1999 are consistent with the respective post-peak HL data for the Lower 48 and North Sea.
The Lower 48 crossed the 50% of Qt mark in 1970, the North Sea, in 1999. The post-1970 cumulative Lower 48 crude oil production through 2004 was 99% of what the HL model predicted it would be--using production data from 1954 to 1970 to generate the HL model.
Interestingly enough, according to Matt Simmons, the major oil companies working the North Sea in 1999 were predicting that the North Sea peak was at least a decade away. Sound familiar?
There were no material restrictions on drilling in either region (minor, but not material restrictions in the case of the Lower 48), and both regions were developed by private companies.
Despite the best efforts of private companies using the best available technology, the Lower 48 and the North Sea have both shown long term declines since peaking. Empirically, the role of oil companies in these two post-peak regions has been to slow the rate of decline of conventional crude oil production.
In my opinion, major oil companies are deeply threatened by mathematical models like the HL method, as applied to world crude oil production, because it suggests that they probably can’t replace conventional crude oil reserves, and they are (justifiably) deeply concerned about punitive taxation. I thought it was interesting that Matt Simmons said that he did not own any major oil company stocks, because they probably could not replace their conventional crude oil reserves (he is focusing on service companies and smaller oil companies).
The world started showing a strong linear pattern in 1983, and on Deffeyes' crude oil HL plot, the world crossed the 50% of Qt mark in 2005. Deffeyes predicted that the most likely year for a world crude oil decline was 2006, within a predicted peak range of 2004 to 2008. As Deffeyes predicted, world crude oil production declined in 2006, relative to 2005 (EIA).
So, the Lower 48, the North Sea and the world all started showing lower crude oil production after crossing their respective 50% of Qt marks.
Empirically, in the absence of constraints on production, e.g., Texas and Saudi Arabia, regions tend to peak in the vicinity of 50% of Qt.
I can’t get inside Robert’s head, so I will assume that he is simply trying understand the HL method, rather than attacking the HL method because of the unpleasant implications it has for major oil companies.
But I do have a couple of questions for Robert.
FWIW I think you two should give it a rest for a while. You have given us plenty to chew on and a period of reflection and waiting for more data seems to be in order here. I am grateful for all of your work.
+1
+1
Agreed.
Disagree. I'd like to hear what both gentlemen have to say about Ace's post http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2389#comment-171951
and I'd particularly like to hear Roberts analysis of Robertos http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2389#comment-171802 work.
I don't think he ever said that the world conventional crude oil production will increase past the 50% of Qt mark. I guess the million dollar question is: How do you know when the world is at 50% of Qt mark? I think he just showed that HL can't be used to reliably predict Qt or URR until after the fact.
Qt is a mathematical estimate of URR. The pre-peak Qt estimates for the Lower 48 and the North Sea are both consistent with post-peak estimates of Qt, and in both cases the regions peaked right at 50% of estimated URR.
The world is showing the same strong linear pattern as the Lower 48 and the North Sea, before their respective peaks, and like the Lower 48 and North Sea, the world started showing lower crude oil production after crossing the 50% of Qt mark.
As further support for the world peak, it's a near certainty that 14 out of 14 of the super giants oil fields that are or were producing one mbpd or more are now in decline.
WT (or anyone else); do you have a link to an overview of the full 'export land' model? I have seen tantalizing hints about it, but haven't been able to get a complete picture. I'd appreciate any pointers to older posts that would lay out the basics.
Thanks!
CW
Global peak: 2007 - 2010
Global decline rate, Post peak: 2%
Economic response: Severe global recession, ~5 years, then slow recovery
“Export Land” Article:
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/27/14471/5832
Model:
http://static.flickr.com/97/240076673_494160e1a0_o.png
Thanks!
It was much simpler than I was expecting, but still sobering...
CW
Global peak: 2007 - 2010
Global decline rate, Post peak: 2%
Economic response: Severe global recession, ~5 years, then slow recovery
Export Land is way oversimplified if you ask me.
The implicit assumption is that consumption in oil-exporting countries will not be affected by worldwide shortages. But that may not be true.
Here's a concrete and somewhat pressing example: Mexico. Cantarell production is declining, and while they are scrambling to get other fields going, they can't make up the shortfall. The country is facing production declines, yet oil export revenues have been one of their main sources of national income for years.
So here's the question: suppose total Mexican oil production falls X percent. Do you think that Mexican oil exports will fall (a) more or (b) less than X percent?
Export Land would predict the answer is (a), more than X percent. Mexico will preferentially divert its falling oil production to its internal consumption. This will give it less to export and so exports will fall even worse and faster than production is decreasing.
But it's very possible that the answer is (b)! Mexico could allow internal gas prices to rise, curbing demand, so that it can maintain its export level and keep that hard currency coming in that the country depends on. This would mean that Mexican oil exports would fall less, and slower, than its internal production declines.
This is the big flaw in the Export Land model. It assumes that this can't happen. Export Land says that exports will fall faster than production and doesn't consider the reality of regimes that would prefer to receive foreign capital than to keep internal gas prices low. It's not an easy choice for a government in this situation, but it is far from clear that there is only one answer. By neglecting to consider the full range of options available to oil exporters, Export Land builds its conclusions into its assumptions. It is an oversimplified and IMO basically useless model.