DrumBeat: March 24, 2007

Antarctic melting 'may be speeding up'

Rising sea levels and melting polar ice-sheets are at upper limits of projections, leaving some human population centres already unable to cope, top world scientists say as they analyse latest satellite data.

..."Observations are in the very upper edge of the projections," leading Australian marine scientist John Church said.

"I feel that we're getting uncomfortably close to threshold," said Church, of the CSIRO's Marine and Atmospheric Research.

Nuclear Fusion: Energy for the Future?

The energy crisis has rocketed from a textbook concept into the most pressing political issue of our time. Future energy supplies are increasingly vulnerable and global consumption is expected to escalate dramatically, increasing by 71% in 2030 and continuing to rise. Energy shortages would have a dramatic impact on every area of modern life: business, transport, food, health and communications. This looming crisis has drawn scientific minds and encouraged radical research into arcane technologies, such as the once-neglected area of nuclear fusion.


I'm Not Buying What Al Gore's Selling

Nuclear power is STILL not a solution to our energy needs OR our environmental needs. It does not solve global warming. It's a killer.


Governor wants answers from feds about rising energy prices in Arizona

After seeing the cost of gasoline rose 20 cents per gallon in the past two weeks, Gov. Janet Napolitano wants federal energy officials to investigate the sudden spike in energy prices that is hitting Arizona.


Iran asking oil clients not to pay in dollars

Iran, embroiled in a nuclear row with Washington, is asking more clients to pay for oil in currencies other than the dollar and 60 per cent or more of its crude income is in other units, an official said yesterday.


TNK-BP to Bid for Rosneft Stake; BP Execs Meet Putin

BP PLC's Russian venture unexpectedly revealed plans to bid for a 9.44% stake in state-owned oil producer OAO Rosneft Friday, just hours before top BP executives including Chief Executive John Browne met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for talks aimed at easing BP's expansion into Russia.


Open ANWR for Alaskans

With Prudhoe Bay oil reserves in decline 6 percent a year, it is essential that new areas be opened for oil exploration and development. With state budget surpluses this year and oil throughput declining in the trans-Alaska oil pipeline, we will be facing budget deficits as early as next year.


The Transition to Renewable Energy

There is currently no strategy or proposal on the table for the needed energy conversion to renewable sources for transportation and energy production. For all the hoopla about Al Gore's movie "An Inconvenient Truth" and given Senator Gore's own background in the Executive and Legislative branches of the Federal Government, there is little in the way of concrete policy proposals that have been introduced as a cornerstone of a new energy policy.


China seen topping U.S. carbon emissions in 2007

China is on course to overtake the United States this year as the world's biggest carbon emitter, estimates based on Chinese energy data show, potentially pressuring Beijing to take more action on climate change.


Stern: Save forests to fight global warming

The world should invest 10 billion dollars annually to halve deforestation in the fight against global warming, Nicholas Stern, the author of a key climate change report, said Friday.


A Wave Of Support For Tidal Energy

This week over 300 of the senior industry, investor and policy figures in the global wave and tidal energy sector gathered in the QEII Centre in Westminster to hear a rallying call and message of optimism for this major energy market of the future.


Ghana: Businesses face more difficult times

Businesses in the country would have to brace themselves for more difficult times ahead with the power rationing exercise set to worsen as the country's energy crisis deepens.

Many businesses have already either shut or cut down drastically on production following the non availability of power in adequate supplies.


Iraqi supply woes foil hunt for terrorists

A raid on suspected terrorists in northern Iraq failed after Iraqi soldiers ran out of gas and couldn’t send half their men to the mission, a U.S. commander says.


Bolivia: Foreign Oil Companies Can't Book Reserves as Own

Foreign energy companies can't book Bolivian oil and gas reserves as theirs, Bolivian Hydrocarbons Minister Carlos Villegas said, the El Diario newspaper reported Friday.

...Villegas added companies that continue to book Bolivian reserves as theirs will be expelled from Bolivia.


Canada ranked fifth in ability to increase oil production

Called Oil-15, or O-15, the new order put together by Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, includes all OPEC states — barring Indonesia — and includes five others that have the highest potential to increase supplies by 2015. Besides Canada, they are Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Brazil and Russia. The group is projected to produce 72.7 million barrels per day, or 69 per cent of total global oil output.


Mexico Must Invest to Produce Crude

The Mexican Oil Enterprise (PEMEX) will have to invest between eight and nine billion dollars additionally a year to just maintain crude and natural gas production, asserted an official from that branch.


Japan Courts Iraq for Strategic Partnership to Secure Energy Supply

Building a strategic partnership with Iraq is important for Tokyo as Iraq's oil supply and its stability greatly affects the national interests of Japan, which is heavily dependent on energy resources from the Middle East.


Burma: Natural Gas Project Threatens Human Rights

Based on experience from previous oil and gas projects in Burma, Human Rights Watch expressed concern that the proposed construction of overland pipelines to transport the gas will involve the use of forced labor, and result in illegal land confiscation, forced displacement, and unnecessary use of force against villagers. Revenue from gas sales would also serve to entrench the brutal military rule in the country.


CSI: Examining California's Ambitious Solar Program

As the California Solar Initiative (CSI) moves into its fourth month, solar businesses in the state are still figuring out how to maneuver through the changing industry landscape and handle some of the issues that have arisen from the state-wide program.


Venture Capitalist and Business Analyst Predict Rapid Expansion of Biofuels Industry, Dramatic Reductions in Carbon Emissions

A top venture capitalist and a prominent biotechnology industry business consultant today both said that the biofuels industry is poised for exceptional growth and that ethanol from cellulose appears to be the most promising alternative fuel over the long-term. During keynote speeches at the World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology and Bioprocessing, Vinod Khosla of Khosla Ventures and Dr. Jens Riese of McKinsey & Co. also highlighted the significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions achievable with ethanol from cellulose.


Pakistan: Govt plans to use biomass plants

The government plans to produce bio-energy by utilising biomass plants, residues like wheat straw, rice husk, cotton sticks, corn cobs, kallar grass and other salt tolerant plants.


Calderon: Mexico to keep corn prices down

Mexico will control domestic corn prices further to make sure rising global costs do not push inflation up and hurt consumers, President Felipe Calderon said on Thursday.


Ethanol Hype: Corn Can't Solve Our Problem

There are biofuel crops that can be grown with much less energy and chemicals than the food crops we currently use for biofuels. And they can be grown on our less fertile land, especially land that has been degraded by farming. This would decrease competition between food and biofuel. The United States has about 60 million acres of such land -- in the Conservation Reserve Program, road edge rights-of-way and abandoned farmlands.


Pakistan: Handle pipeline politics cautiously

Another snag has cropped up in the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) project, which must be handled carefully. India has threatened to pull out of the $7 billion dollar gas pipeline project if Islamabad does not bring down the transit fees it wants to charge for allowing the pipeline to pass through its territory to India. The pipeline is going to be 1,036-km long inside Pakistan and the task of looking after it will be Islamabad’s. It will pass through areas that will have to be ‘tamed’ at great developmental expense and careful political bargaining with local stakeholders.


India grapples with energy issues

India's hopes of tapping into Myanmar's gas resources might have hit a dead end, with Yangon pitching for China instead. India's problems with Myanmar follow US moves to strangle the US$7.4 billion Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline.


What's happened to Iraq's oil?

"The Iraqi oil industry has been stuck for the last couple of years." says Manoucher Takin, an analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London.

"Nothing has really changed.

"It's not that officials have done nothing. The problem is, they can't do much because of the security situation."


The New Energy Crisis

But a lot of us who are managing data centers are still in the same boat we were in three years ago. Only the situation is much worse. I completely underestimated the long term impact of not enough physical consolidation (buildings, data centers, storage, servers, etc.).


JUNO Oil Outlook - Feb 2007

The first full year of Peak Oil, that is structural undersupply simultaneously affecting markets in different world locations, is at minimum possible, and increasingly probable for June 2007-June 2008.

This may be an on-again/off-again phenomenon, but will surely add more power to oil price volatility. Volatility, and downside risk for the near-term oil price is due to many factors, notably the following...


Lauded Energy Achievement is Actually a Disaster

The news that China is about to buy all the natural gas from Burma’s offshore wells clearly shows how helpless Korea is against Asia’s super-power. Energy experts have criticized the government for failing to take necessary measures and instead bragging about its dubious energy achievement. In a nutshell, Korea has failed in its energy diplomacy.


Energy gap can spur economic revolution - if we seize the chance

Across the UK, this energy gap equates to a 31.5 per cent shortage at peak demand by 2020. This is the equivalent to an area the size of Scotland and then stretching all the way down to the Humber estuary being without power in peak winter periods.


Ecuador suffering huge losses from oil protests

Ecuador is losing 500,000 U.S. dollars every day as a result of protests by local residents at Amazon-based production sites of Brazilian state oil company Petrobras, President Rafael Correa said Friday.

Petrobras stopped pumping crude oil eight days ago in the Amazon area when local people started protesting and damaging pipelines at oil production sites, demanding the hiring of local residents, rehabilitation of local roads and other services.


Chavez: China to become a top oil client

President Hugo Chavez said China is set to rival the United States as Venezuela's top oil buyer as he announced new plans with the Asian powerhouse to jointly ship oil, build refineries and expand crude production.


US Congress Holds Hearing on Oil Dependence (with downloadable RealMedia files)

The U.S. Congress has held a hearing Thursday on how rising global demand for oil is affecting U.S. national security. Some lawmakers and energy experts say America's dependence on oil imports limits the ability of the United States to meet its foreign policy goals.


Energy Consumption by European Transport Sector Grew 28.6% Since 1990

Final energy consumption in the EU-25 countries increased by 12.6% between 1990 and 2004, according to the European Environment Agency. Between 2003 and 2004, total final energy consumption grew by 1.1%. The fastest growing sector is transport, followed by households and services.

THE IPSA MYSTERY

Starts with improved relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia - SA even offering to help repair the IPSA pipeline

Immediately preceding the lastest invasion of Iraq the Pipeline is repaired and ready to begin pumping oil

http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2002/june/06_18_3.html

http://www.ameinfo.com/28059.html

After the invasion we start getting this story over and over again:

http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/ntm34663.htm

Could the increase in production in early 2004 be IPSA?

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/ksa_summary.png

If laundered Iraqi Oil has been masking declining SA production, then the Richard Heinberg rumor could be true and Ghawar IS producing less than 3mb/d and may have been in decline far longer than anyone suspects.

Found this interesting study on the pipeline, I didn't see a date but appears to precede the invasion, it's subject matter and who's doing it is quite interesting.

http://www.rice.edu/energy/publications/docs/TrendsinMiddleEast_Alternat...

That's a very provocative theory. The timing sure seems right. I can think of any number of interested parties that would benefit from such a subterfuge. Hmmmm.

Baker Institute study in December 2002 said the pipeline had been maintained and was considered operational.

http://bakerinstitute.org/Pubs/iraq_14.html

I put this in yesterday's drum beat.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2398#comment-172381

It's an idea I have had for a little while now.

.........

First, What would be the worlds reaction if Saudi Arabia has actually peaked? What would happen to the $USD ?

What would happen to the ruling princes in SA if everyone knew they were in decline? What country do you think they would "Visit" for an extended stay?

ALL VERY VERY HIGH STAKES GAMES wouldn't you agree?
What do you think the motivational factor would be for the US/Saudi Arabia to "Prolong" them NOT Peaking?

With that in mind, Lets look at these stories.

From Leanan's story above.

Mystery of the Missing Meters:
Accounting for Iraq's Oil Revenue

http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=14427

Heavily armed soldiers spend their days at the oil terminals scanning the horizon looking for suicide bombers and stray fishing dhows (boats). Meanwhile, right under their noses, smugglers are suspected to be diverting an estimated billions of dollars worth of crude onto tankers because the oil metering system that is supposed monitor how much crude flows into and out of ABOT and KAAOT - has not worked since the March 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq.

A few days ago there was a story in Drumbeat about a pipeline coming online between Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

Halliburton did all the pipeworks right?

Officials blame the four-year delay in repairing the relatively simple system on "security problems." Others point to the failed efforts of the two U.S. companies hired to repair the southern oil fields, fix the two terminals, and the meters: Halliburton of Houston, Texas, and Parsons of Pasadena, California.

...Rumors are rife among suspicious Iraqis about the failure to measure the oil flow. "Iraq is the victim of the biggest robbery of its oil production in modern history," blazed a March 2006 headline in Azzaman, Iraq's most widely read newspaper. A May 2006 study of oil production and export figures by Platt's Oilgram News, an industry magazine, showed that up to $3 billion a year is unaccounted for.

After the 2003 invasion, the meters appear to have been turned off and there have since been no reliable estimates of how much crude has been shipped from the southern oil fields

When the US went into Bagdad, all buildings were unsecured(musuems, public works, etc) but NOT the ministry of Oil. That building was secured day 1.

I believe No oil gets missing in southern Iraq with out US/Halliburton/Blackwater knowing about it and being in on the take.

If Iraq went up or down in production a few 100k NO ONE would notice and not lift an eyeball.

How about if 300k - 1 mil barrels sort of disappeared, givin the about article's info, would you believe it? How about if those barrels found their way into some 33 million barrel storage facility somewhere?

Someone could report higher or lower production at their descression a little bit more often.
How long could say you were cutting back, but still have inventory rising for a few weeks/months.

I put forth the possiblity of US/SA gaming the system of production reporting with a slush fund of 100k - 1mil barrels per day.

SA could look good for a lot longer perhaps?

Did anyone see the article of the pipeline between Iraq/SA a day or so ago?

I think they have peaked.

Anyway, I'll take off my tinfoil hat. Just a wild idea.

Speaking of tinfoil, it's a very short leap from this chain of logic to the conclusion that this was the whole purpose of the Iraqi invasion - to redirect Iraqi oil in order to disguise the trouble the administration's Saudi friends were in.

It would be interesting if some Saudi oil assays in the last four years suddenly started looking like Iraqi assays.

...this was the whole purpose of the Iraqi invasion - to redirect Iraqi oil...

Let me throw a little Gasolene on your fire.

(Love that one)

Does anyone happen to remember what the only documents that CHeney's 2001 energy task force let into the public???

IRAQ's OIL FIELD charts.

Would that be the reason that he was so adament about not letting anything else out?

How about that?

Hey, reminds me. The reason for the first war was Kuwait using slant drilling into Iraq. Hmm. Now how far do new horizontal wells able to go? I wonder if Kuwait is using Horiz. wells into Iraq?

Crazy things. Who in the world would be so devious as that?

jc

Don't forget the Saudi connection to 911: fifteen of the highjackers were Saudi nationals. As well, this plot supplies the motive for US government involvement in 911.

Well, you know why the Saudis picked 911 to crash the planes? It was their crisis call to BushCo...to let them know their fields were starting to crash and it was time for the US to start working the plan to get into Iraq, secure the oil fields and start pumping it over to KSA.

Or...maybe it was just some crazy Talibans bored with playing around in caves. Gosh...the Taliban...remember them...seems like such a long time ago and they've pretty much fallen from the public discourse.

BTW...the above is just my guess.

umm...is 911 Arabic for an emergency call?

Well...when talking to BushCo...you have to speak clearly and in their native tongue...violence.

You mean the oilfields were crashing in 1993 too?

It couldn't have been the whole purpose, but it certainly must have been a big one. There could never be any doubt the whole thing was about oil. The exact methods for reaping the benefit of that oil is what's new in this whole line of thought. One could exaggerate the friends of the Saudis point I think. . These ('our') guys will turn on anyone who is no longer of any use, including the Saudis. The huge military bases are a declaration of the firm intent to remain.

All these plans and operations and yet domestic politics goes on as if this were going to be decided 'democratically'. That's where the tinfoil hat comes in handy.

The investments, the plans, and so forth are not ones that would be made were there any significant chance domestic politics could upset the apple cart.

$3B/yr amounts to about 0.14 mbpd - far from enough for masking the rumored 2 mbpd decline in ghawar. Anybody know the capacity of that pipeline (in barrels/day)? Could they also get Iraqi oil out on ships and later "launder" that oil as SA oil?

"Anybody know the capacity of that pipeline (in barrels/day)?"

1.65 mb/d, Just about exactly the size of the increase in early 2004. Pump Iraqi oil through an unmetered, supposedly non-operational defunct pipeline, once it gets to Saudi Arabia, say it came from Saudi oil fields. Who could say different. It's the perfect crime(and probably the largest in the history of mankind). Those are some cahones!

"$3B/yr amounts to about 0.14 mbpd" - What does this refer to? Does not appear to have anything to do with the post. 1.65 mb/d for 3 years at an avg. of $50 a barrel comes to about $4.5 trillion.

Samara, Your post is a very short way from suggesting our government lies to us. I'm shocked, shocked.

Seriously, I have thought that if the stakes are as high as you suggest, the narrative of PO MUST stay out serious consideration in the MSM. If there were to be oil shortages, other causes would have to be supplied that are 'obvious'. War, terrorist attacks, etc.

You start going down that rabbit hole and ... Hello? Hello? It's dark down here. Will someone turn on the lights? Are there lights? Am I alone? Who's out there?

Perhaps they(the guv) have to lie to us as I am assured we can't handle the truth,,as Jack said to Tom. "You can't handle the truth."

And most don't wish to hear it anyway, whilst quaffing bad pizza and guzzling corn fructose swill.

So they(the guv) knowing that tend to play their games. At least I think they are still are on our side.

Note to self: be sure to catch the latest flick "Breach".
The Good Shepherd was not that good BTW..his son should have been the one chucked out the aircraft and not the bimbo ruskee spy. He was daft anyway. Actually thinking about it Damon should have been chucked out after screwing up the Bay of Pigs.

What does this have to do with reality? Nothing and neither does quantum mechanics.

So yes they lie. They have to. We want them to. 'Three Days of the Condor' said it all.

Last week CBC Ottawa did a short feature news piece on Peak Oil, featuring yours truly. The camera work is a bit dodgy, but the reporter told the story reasonably accurately. The clip is hosted on YouTube, here is a link through a page on my web site.

That's probably the first time that visuals of TOD and Stuart's work in particular have appeared on TV. (Although anonymously)

Great segment, though. (and great tie!)

My oversight - I intended to mention in my post that Stuart's Saudi Arabia graphs feature in the shot of me doing my web research. I thought they made the point rather well.

I got the tie with the oil well design especially for doing these presentations.

Where do they dredge up these cornucopian lemmings. "They have a plan...." (big brother will look after us). "It will never run out..." (as in we will be driving gasoline powered cars forever).

The report uses the word theory but it is clear that is not in the scientific but colloquial sense. So peak oil is merely an idea and not a certainty. The denial is rampant. Do these people think their bank accounts will last forever if they have no income? There is no oil being created in quantities that fill up the reserves so depletion is as certain as death.

I do not think this report is balanced and objective. If the reporter took the subject seriously they would research the depletion rates and production declines in major fields and producing regions instead of parading some twits off the street to bleat their completely uninformed opinions. This is circus reporting (we have/create two sides so lets see them fight) and not journalism.

To be fair, if the CBC had actually assigned time according to analysts' consensus, GliderGuider would have been given a few seconds up front and the rest of the segment would have been refutation and reassurance.

No sane and conscientious reporter would ever report Peak Oil as anything but highly disputed by the experts.

Not that I'm disputing your opinion on the MSM, but considering we have had an actual production plateau for nigh unto 1 1/2 years now, when does it become incumbent on the experts to prove it's not peak oil? In the eternal battle between westexas and RR, and Stuart and Dave, isn't reality right now on the former's side?

My own opinion is that the production plateau could extend for another decade or two. (undulating plateau but at lower levels than CERA warrants)

There is a good reason why Stuart is currently focused on the Saudi situation. If the Saudi's aren't lying, there will be no peak shaped production graph -- ever. It will be shaped more like a mesa.

However, there will of course definitely be price spikes and temporary supply shortfalls as the inevitable conflicts disturb supply. Conflicts, however, tend to lock in oil that will be produced further down the road.

Except for the fact that nobody has ever managed to attain an equilibrium in their production. It's either going up or down. Indeed, if everyone starts with the easy oil and the 7000 bpd wells and the pickings steadily get worse, there's good reason to suspect no mesa is possible.

Except for the fact that nobody has ever managed to attain an equilibrium in their production.

As I read it, nobody has had any resource-limit induced incentive until recently to be careful about supply (or demand). There was always plenty of oil coming down the pipe from somewhere in the world (except for embargoes and wars).

Most experts don't believe the peak oil case. But the end-of-cheap-oil case is a different matter. Few expect a return to $20 oil. That fact has to be included in our calculations. Price expectations are a big deal.

A plateau for a decade or more may have an impact not unlike that of a slow decline, given the growth imperative of the global-capitalist monetary system. Also, even as the gross oil production is level, the net available for actual use outside the oil industry is declining, due to declining EROI. Stock brokers don't understand that yet, thus no panic yet... Moreover, "oil" production is now cutting into other energy sources, especially natural gas: more of the "liquids" are stripped out of the NG to be added to oil, and a large portion of Canada's declining NG production is diverted for the processing of the tar sands.

given the growth imperative of the global-capitalist monetary system.

The system is definitely currently geared toward growth. But I'm not convinced growth is absolutely necessary. Japan as a case in point. I know somebody who lived in Japan during many of those years of stagnation. There were few overt signs of real stress. Oil consumption has been flat for a decade there.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2006/02/16/GR200602...

It might not be lying what the Saudi's do. It might be that the current economical education a lot of the Saudi upperclass have enjoyed in the west makes them think that dwindling oilsupply is an investment problem. Rememeber when the North Sea declined? Many newpaper editorials and even government officials declared that soon the production declines would be reversed because investments were up.

It's funny, but in the broader scheme of things, WT, RR, Stuart and Dave would agree on far more than they disagree on. Nobody is trying to deny that peak oil is an inevitability. All of us appear to suspect that the peak is sooner rather than later - ultimately what each of those authors is trying to do is use the information that we do have on hand, and see what if any types of predictions can be made. And for that matter, I think that all would agree that if we had more and better data, that we could do a far better job of prediction.

In the end, all of the debate really centers on the relative merits of different ways of analyzing the data that we do have available. To an outsider, I am sure that these debates all seem rather overblown.

No, the debate at this point hinges on whether KSA is a truth-teller. That's what the two sides disagree on. There is an actual KSA decline to be explained. HL isn't being used so much to predict URR and peak now but to indicate that it's not unreasonable to say what's happening now is involuntary. On the other side we have KSA and TPTB in oil saying "Nuh-uh, we meant to do that."

Myself, I think assuming KSA truth-telling is a stretch. There's too much money and power involved. And as you said a total lack of transparency.

I tend to agree with your thoughts above and that's why the huge debate about HL's predictive abilities. And I agree...we need to be looking at other things besides the HL model. It is those "other things" that are reinforcing the model IMO.

If HO reads this, one thing I would be interested in knowing how resting a well is supposed to work. I'm not an expert, but for the life of me I can't figure out a mechanism whereby a well shut-in for a year would have the water go away.

oil type
temperature
s.g.

Crude oil 48o API 60
130 15.6
54.4 0.79
0.76

Crude oil 40o API 60
130 15.6
54.4 0.825
0.805

Crude oil 35.6o API 60
130 15.6
54.4 0.847
0.824

Crude oil 32.6o API 60
130 15.6
54.4 0.832
0.84

Water sinks to the bottom as it is denser?
Can someone confirm this as I'm not an oil person!

I'm not an expert, but for the life of me I can't figure out a mechanism whereby a well shut-in for a year would have the water go away.

To borrow a page out of hydrology (and I'm guessing similar rules apply), think of it as a thick milkshake...as you suck on the straw you create a depression in the milkshake, keep sucking and you wind up sucking air. You then rest your straw and everything settles back down again and you're good to start over again. Resting a well that's been water flooded should allow the water time to migrate downward as well (since it's heavier than the oil), and push more oil towards the surface.

I probably wasn't clear enough. A vertical with no water flood I can see. Resting would eliminate coning, like you said. A horizontal water-flooded I can't see, especially with water showing up in the well.

I suspect that water settling would take geological eras with the slight density difference driving force.

"resting" wells in a homogeneous reservoir doesnt work. ghawar is not homogeneous. when the wells are shut in water imbibes into the lower permeability rock. the imbibition process is very efficient(although limited to a few % of pore volume). oil is displace from the lower porosity and permeability rock. gravity segregation also takes place and the oil and water re-equiliberate. in the final analysis shutting in wells has the same effect as production at a lower rate (imo).

There is one easy positive test of their truth: they would have no reason to hold back detailed data from their oil fields provided if it backs up what they are saying about their URR and future output/day.

This would strengthen their statement.

However they have not (since the early 80's?) and are are not providing transparency on the matter. This fact alone implies that they CANNOT provide the correct data as it would contravine their postition.

Marco.

KSA has no obligation to tell the world anything except how mcuh they'll supply at what price. The fact that they don't say more means nothing. Quit grasping at doomer straws.

Does a supplier's best customer deserve to be told what resources they have to meet an obligation agreed to many years ago?

In my company, we have one customer that is by far our biggest. They are planning to expand X number of stores and want us to supply X number of our product to stock those stores. We have a meeting at the beginning of the year to see what it will take to get the job done.

Big Customer asks, "Can you supply this amount of stock increase to meet our demand this year?" We say, "Sure we can." What happens if the contracts get signed and my company cannot deliver?

Suppliers have obligations to customers and if the suppliers can't deliver, action is taken to rectify.

So, in short, I don't agree with you that KSA has no obligations here.

So, in short, I don't agree with you that KSA has no obligations here.

Oh, there's people in your government etc. who are indeed well-informed. Yoo simply misunderstand your own position in the scheme of things.

You consume about 1/300.000.000 of US consumption. What kind of right-to-be-informed would that get you?

You may also think that the government owes you some kind of explanation. They don't see it that way.

Ya...by customer, I meant the companies that run refineries and perhaps BushCo who works very closely with all aspects of the petroleum industry.

AFAIK, in contracts for oil delivery from the producer, there are force majeure clauses that allow the supplier off the hook. Besides the only sure way to get a sovereign government to pony up is the use of greater force - but look at what's happening in Iraq. So KSA can do whatever they can get sway with.

It must mean something, that they are holding their cards so close to their chest! Why the secrecy?

A wise man once said to me : "Be wary of a man sporting a beard - he is hiding something" .

Well I say they've got plenty of beard.

Marco.

The people they are really worried about are not in the USA.

The Saudis (and I mean specifically Saudis and not Arabians) are worried about keeping their heads attached to their necks.

Admitting to oil declines or substantially less future reserves than previously promised would result in fundamentalist revolution by al-Qaeda in Arabia, followed by subsequent invasion and revolution in the neighboring gulf statelets.

As it was, the story almost didn't air because the reporter couldn't get an oil company executive to appear on camera. He really had to fight his producer to get it on, and he did it because he's convinced the story is so crucial. I felt blessed that he found such a transparent flack to provide "balance" - I've had innumerable comments along the line of "Lord, what a clueless idiot!" Up against someone like a a smooth-talking VP of Communications for Shell Canada I would have come off a lot worse than I did.

The reporter also tried to get a comment or even a backgrounder from somebody at our federal Ministry of Natural Resources, but after first saying they would find him someone, they stopped returning his calls... I don't think the Harper government wants any discussion of Peak Oil on their watch, certainly not with government participation.

My favorite lines:

You: "Depressed yet? Heh heh heh..."

and then that motorist:

"I'm sure there's a contingency plan"

Me: "Well, there is one...but it doesn't have you in it."

Thanks for that link, wow.

It was that realization that 'hooked' me on TOD ... now trying to achieve a motivation level sufficient to actually change my way of life ...

First post: Comment on Michael Ervin's “rebuttal” (CBC Ottawa)

As a newbie on PO (been reading here for a couple of weeks) I just wanted to check if I've understood this correctly:

Michale Ervin's response to imminent PO (my italics and numbers in brackets):

“With more fuel efficient cars, perhaps the trend towards smaller cars – all of these, [1]from a demand point of view are going to likely reduce the rate of crude oil consumption. That along with new discoveries of crude oil reserves and newer more efficient ways of extracting those resources from the earth are going to be additional factors that will [2]likely continue to push that peak oil date further and further into the future

There is a logical black hole here. How can controlled diminishing of demand do much to postpone an imminent peak of production. I thought that effiency measures were the less destructive way of dealing with a post peak/plateau scenario. Of course a slower demand growth (e.g because of effiency increase) can "blunt" the peak somewhat but I thought that only higher oil production could postpone an imminent peak.

If I'm on the wrong foot here please point it out (gently). And bear with me for my second-language attempts...

Cornucopian logic is not really logic, it is blind faith. Ervin thinks we can keep on finding new reserves and at the same time increase the efficiency of extraction well into the future. Too bad for Ervin and the rest of the deluded, there is enough statistical information accumulating to show us that there are only scraps left and the EROEI is falling regardless of technology.

The collapsing discovery trend in the last 30 years should be the main story. We are 40 years after the world discovery peak. As expected most large fields are old and in decline. It is irrational for people to expect that the peak should be 50 years from now or later.

Sea_kayak,

Of course a slower demand growth (e.g because of effiency increase) can "blunt" the peak somewhat but I thought that only higher oil production could postpone an imminent peak.

The mainstream view, espoused by CERA, is that world oil production will not be shaped like a peak -- i.e. the logistic curve we know so well is misleading. It will be more like a plateau.

So peak is a somewhat meaningless concept to them. Sure, there will be a peak year. But if production for many years on both sides of that 'peak' is very similar to the summit or if there are multiple summits, the concept of peak is not very useful.

It's taken me a few days to read throught the HL/saudi debates, and after gleaning some understanding I still have one question:

How did Hubert predict the peak in th US?

Marco.

I think, essentially by shifting the discovery curve to coincide with the production curve. The maximum of production was predicted to follow the maximum of discoveries with a delay apprx 30 -40 years (not by HL !)

The very very short answer: Hubbert recognized that oil production curves, like many natural phenomena, follow a classic bell-curve. Without getting into the minutiae of pipelines, drilling, politics, or economics (though Hubbert was certainly aware of these factors), he developed an analysis technique now known as Hubbert Linearization, which worked well in the days of slide rules and paper graphs.

Hubbert predicted a peak in production around 1970 for the US 48 states (yes there were 48 when he announced his finding), and in about 50 years for the world. That was in 1956; 50 years from then is now.

Look through the available papers by Hubbert:

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/Bibliography.htm

and see if you can find anything resembling an HL plot. I couldn't.

I believe this method originated with Deffeyes. Hubbert used discoveries in his analysis.

That's why I put it, now known as.... I guess the "slide rules and paper graph" bit was sort of over-the-top.

I did read the 1956 paper, though, and it has a bell-curve superimposed on a graph of production stats. I think that was Hubbert's essential contribution to production forecasting.

Keep reading, then, because you're missing out on some very prescient work. In particular, this report:

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/EnergyResources.pdf

was part of a series of reports on resources requested of the National Academy of Sciences requested by JFK (I assume).

My point is that Hubbert apparently never produced an HL plot.

Here is an abstract for a Deffeyes presentation at an AGU meeting in 2002:

AB: After M. King Hubbert initially predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s, he continued to refine his methodology. In addition to annual oil production, Hubbert used cumulative "discoveries", defined as the cumulative amount of oil produced up to a given year plus the known reserves as of that same year. Because oil is added to the reserves several years before it is produced, the use of discoveries allowed Hubbert to peek farther into the future. Hubbert utilized the simplest hypothesis that might fit the observations: 1) annual production would fit a symmetrical bell-shaped curve, and 2) discoveries would follow an identical bell curve, earlier in time by a fixed number of years. There were four free parameters in the fit: the annual production at the peak, the width (at half height) of the curve, the year of peak production, and the peak year of discoveries. In 1982, when he was 79 years old, Hubbert published a long paper justifying his choice of the logistic bell curve, rather than the more familiar Gaussian. He pointed out that the differential equation underlying the logistic curve could be interpreted as an annual growth rate that depends linearly on the fraction of oil remaining undiscovered. The logistic differential equation could be rearranged into a linear form that turned a logistic curve into a straight line. (Hubbert did not mention that population biologists had been using the same straight-line graph.) In 2001, I showed that both the production and discovery data could be plotted together on the same graph. An interesting puzzle arose: fitting the bell-shaped curves required four free parameters, but a straight line has only two free parameters. It turns out that the center year for production, and for discoveries, are found only indirectly from the straight-line graph. Almost all economists reject the entire Hubbert analysis because the effect of oil prices on exploration effort and production methods is ignored. The straight-line logistic graph takes a small step towards satisfying the economists' objections. At times of high prices, we move rapidly down the straight line but success continues to depend linearly on the fraction of undiscovered oil. The graph for world production and discoveries, updated to include the year 2001 production and reserves, predicts a production peak around the year 2005. U.S. policy initiatives now under discussion focus on targets in the year 2011 through 2015.
UR: http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/
DE: 3210 Modeling

I'll look for the 2001 work that he is talking about. Maybe it's his book.

Well, perhaps Hubbert came up with the idea, but not until later. The 1982 work of Hubbert referenced above might be refering to a paper in this compilation:

http://www.biblio.com/books/44854193.html

Someone else whose curiosity*money product is higher than mine can buy the book. Note the quote attributed to Deffeyes:

"Techniques of prediction as applied to the production of oil and gas" which gives his rationale and method of building a set of production curves for finite resources such as oil and gas. Whether he employed this math to make his famous 1956 prediction of a nearby U.S. peak in oil production is open to debate; "The 1982 paper is pure Hubbert; he never hints whether he knew the 1982 explanation all along, or whether he worked out the derivation long after the fact [1956 prediction]."--Kenneth Deffeyes, Beyond Oil, pg. 35.

And of course, TOD has been down this path before:

Links to tutorial material on Hubbert Linearization

Hey Super G, did you ever read that paper at the library?

Interesting point, and thanks for the link to the Hubbert Peak site. I'll try to spend a bit more time actually reading that material.

From the 1969 report Energy Resources I find this paragraph on p. 167:

If Q be a quantity of given fuel, and t the time, then

P = dQ / dt

will be the production rate, where d signifies the amount of change. Then, if the production rate P be plotted on an arithmetic scale as a function of time, as we have done in Figures 8.1 to 8.6, the element of area under the curve with a base of dt and an altitude of P, will be

dA = Pdt = ( dQ / dt ) dt = dQ.

Hence, on such a graph, the cumulative production Q up to any given time t will be proportional to the area between the curve of production rate and the time-axis from the beginning of production until the time t.

[edit, 21:23 CDT]:
Joules,
Uhhh, nevermind, you're right. But in hindsight (20/20), it doesn't seem like so much of a leap for someone to graph P/Q against Q...

See Cynus's comment in March 23rd drumbeat - the first. He points out that Hubbert did NOT use Hubbert Linearization; it was invented by Deffeyes!

Marco,
I don't know, and I wondered that myself. Looking at the contradictory answers from Gilles and DIYer, it seems that it is not common knowledge.

Along these lines, I've wished to bring up a related topic (in my mind).

How do weather/hurricane forecasters model the future?

How do ecological biologists model the future?

There are comparisons to be made here since we are looking at large sets of data, not set in a controlled environment, and all variables that effect our question are not always known.

Weather forecasters and ecologists have had success in modelling the future by detecting patterns in the mounds of data .

Why can't some of their techniques be applied to global petroleum questions?

Great comment and I made a similar one a week or so ago.

Caution rant on, post liable to insult people when that is not the intent!

OMO models such as those used in biology and meterology are easily rejected by engineering people because they are both inaccurate and imprecise. They may indicate a trend in hurricanes or species population but they don't tell you exactly when or exactly how big or how much.

This type of information is not useful if you are charged with building something to match projected amounts at specific loactions. I am a biologist but I work with engineers and I understand why they are frustrated with information that is imprecise in time and magnitude. They require more precision or they have a difficult time pricing and building to correct scale. In my experience they will reject the information that forecasts a trend using fuzzy data and just build to the hard data they have in hand ignoring the future.

Not trying to insult the many excellent engineers who post here just stating there is a fundamental difference in the quality of data that different groups must work with. Data sets that are very predictive in biological fields may appear useless as predictive to an engineer because there are usually more unknowns than knowns. Complex interactions that are obvious to biologists can't be quantified by any simple model or equation. People try all the time unsuccessfully. You end up with a slew of competing models, none of which does as well as your own interpretation of the data.

Just some comments from the someone who has sorted through 1000's of field plots yearly to pick yield winners (succesfully via subsequent testing) when the statistics say that there are no statistical differences between any of them. But plant breeders and farmers know different!

Rant off.

Food for thought and discussion. Flame away as I'm off to spend time with the family. :-)

Oh and this relates to Peak Oil because the future is more the land of unknowns and supposition rather than hard data gathered for a specific engineering goal.

Nah. Engineers are quite comfortable nowadays with probability and fuzzy data. You have us confused with management.

The amount of oil being produced globally is mainly determined by economic demand, not by any varialbe related to its remaining [or original, if you prefer] quantity, with the obvious proviso that it is impossible to pump more than is there. Another problem with prediction is that the number of wells is not dependent on the amount in any determinable fashion. Fewer wells means slower production, and does not affect the actual quantity of oil available.

These considerations are so obvious that the last few days' discussion of HL seem like the medieval arguments on how many angels can fit on the head of a pin.

"The amount of oil being produced globally is mainly determined by economic demand"

And economic demand is PARTLY based on the price of the crude, and the price of the crude is very dependent on the availability of that crude.

Marco.

since 1982 the supply /demand has not really responded to price, its pretty much = to world population times a constant value giving the result of 4.45 barrels of oil per person per year

I've a tickling feeling that change in this matter is under way. It has been discussed many times at TOD that demand dustruction has already kicked in to varying degrees.

This enters areas of debate such a outbidding 3rd world and developing countires for resource.

Interestingly I did a quickie calculation and descovered that China have enough dollar reserve to buy about 3 years worth of crude at $100 per barrel.

Do you think any in the UK (where I live) or Europe or the US whould sweat it at $100 for 3 years?

Marco

"It has been discussed many times at TOD that demand dustruction has already kicked in to varying degrees."

I was talking to a butcher the other day Kroger. He was telling me they have had to reduce the amount of meat they are ordering because people are just not buying at the prices they have to charge due to increased cost to them. He said the telling thing is they aren't even buying when it's marked down and put in the quick sell section.

Yes it has been true that demand is partly dependent on the price of crude which in turn is partly dependent on its availability. In any case, global demand will limit global supply within some future time frame - in other words producers will cut production when there's a glut. However, you've forgotten that many of the big producers belong to a price fixing cartel, and this cartel seems to have the upper hand at this point in time as well as several eras in the past.

In other words, I stand by my original statement:

The amount of oil being produced globally is mainly determined by economic demand.

The amount of oil being produced globally is mainly determined by economic demand

On the upslope, yes. On the downslope over the peak, no. And that is the shortest way I am able to describe the peakoil problem.

Dragonfly

I am not in a position to comment on ecologists but I can on weather forecasters. They have never been able to accurately forecast the weather for any significant period ahead of time and I have seen first hand many times where they can't even forecast it 5 minutes ahead. The weather has simply too many variables that can affect it and therefore it would in my opinion have no relevance to petroleum

The 20.3 revenue miles of Phoenix's new Light Rail system will use 595 tons of copper and have 101 miles of overhead (they are building the rail yard for a future 90 mile system. I assume this is where most og the non-revenue wiring is going. 40.6 miles of overhead is the minimum for double track).

Anyway, a good comparision on one of the restraints for electrification, copper. Phoenix has a "gold plated" system that overuses materials IMHO.

Electricity is budgeted at $1.6 million of the $28 million annual operating budget.

Best Hopes,

Alan

And the endless squabbling over the question of whether Metro to Dulles in DC will be above or below ground in Tysons continues on. The tunnel proponents have a fixed-cost bid from Dragados (the company that dug the chunnel) which is actually cheaper than the cost estimates for the above-ground option, and would actually be completed sooner.

In the meantime Bechtel is under pressure from the Metropolitan Airports Commission - Bechtel has been told that their price is too high and is putting the entire project in danger.

I guess the thing that bugs me the most about the Bechtel deal is the secrecy involved in the whole thing. They had a story about this in the WaPo yesterday:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/22/AR200703...

A state law intended to bring big-ticket road and rail projects to fruition quickly and cheaply also grants the parties involved an unusual level of secrecy in their negotiations. The lack of transparency could make it difficult to evaluate the financial risks that accompany such complex public works, such as cost overruns and scheduling delays, some local officials and critics say.

Secrecy is not the only issue surrounding the Public-Private Transportation Act of 1995. The law was designed to jump-start expensive road and transit projects by attracting private-sector investment and corporate efficiency to the process. It allows the state to dispense with traditional competitive bidding and select a single private partner to design and build a project for a fixed price and profit.

It hasn't quite worked that way. The private contractor, Dulles Transit Partners -- a construction consortium of Bechtel Inc. and Washington Group International -- has put no money into construction of the extension's first phase, which would run from just east of the West Falls Church Metro station to Wiehle Avenue in Reston by 2012. The consortium will be reimbursed for the $15 million it has spent on preliminary engineering work if it reaches an agreement with the state.

Posted this late yesterday - thought I'd re-post for those who missed it:

A PhD dissertation on peak oil:
http://www.energybulletin.net/27491.html

Not much new to this crew, but a very thorough treatment of oil depletion. Forecasts peak between 2006 & 2010, more or less...

Note that his advisor is the head of APSO Norway :-)

CW
Global peak: 2007 - 2010
Global decline rate, Post peak: 2%
Economic response: Severe global recession, ~5 years, then slow recovery

Here's what he wrote at the end of his paper:

The giant oil field model is based on past annual production, URR and three different assumed decline rates. The results from the modeling of 333 giant fields are used in combination with the other forecasts in order to predict future oil production. Four different scenarios have been modeled and peak oil governed by the giant oil fields is a common result for the scenarios. The worst case scenario shows a peak in 2008, while the best case peaks in 2013 although at a higher production level. The production in the best case scenario increases more rapidly than a future demand growth of 1.4 per cent. Therefore the production can be adjusted to follow the demand growth, resulting in a postponed peak oil to 2018. Thus, global peak oil will occur in the ten year span between 2008 and 2018.

I just read an article posted above that suggest demand growth is probably more like 2 per cent, which would imply that the best-case forecast of peak in 2018 may be very optimistic.

-best,

Wolf

I just read an article posted above that suggest demand growth is probably more like 2 per cent, which would imply that the best-case forecast of peak in 2018 may be very optimistic.

We have to make sure that we don't fall into the trap of thinking that demand grows independently of the impact of high prices and the decisions producers make about their production.

If we question supply projections, we have to question demand projections, too.

It's fair to point out that if prices go substantially higher and remain there, demand growth could be effectively eliminated. That would push peak beyond 2018.

Wow.

I just gave that paper a quick scan, and it is a superb collection and presentation. I highly recommend it to all TOD readers.

P.S. I'd really love to read papers of similar quality and rigor on solar, wind and nuclear. - links please!

The report ”Giant Oil Fields – The Highways to Oil” is an EXCELLENT, well researched, referenced and documented report. The report uses thorough bottom-up analyses, which I have always believed to be the best approach to obtain estimates of the PEAK.

Hopefully it (the report) might become a valuable source of reference for future discussions on TOD.
……..

I noticed especially the figures 7.3 and 7.4 showing declining deepwater discoveries recently that now doesn’t replace production.

The report handles the uncertainties of the decline rates in a thorough way. Decline rates are hard to predict and will influence future growth (if any) and the down slope from the peak.

The other hard to predict factor is the economical lifetime of the fields, which affects the overall decline, a minor influence though it still affects production capacities negatively.

What also caught my attention was the growth in NGL’s /Natural Gas Liquids, mainly ethane, propane, butane) production. Most NGL originates from gas fields, and gas to NGL ratio normally increases (for gas fields) with time, that is the gas becomes drier.

Looking on the data on NGL production from IEA, reported NGL production in
Russia (a high in 2004/2005 of 0,457 Mb/d and since been in steep decline)
USA (a high in 2000 of 1,911 Mb/d and since slightly declined (due to declining nat gas production?))
Canada (a high in 2003 of 0,724 Mb/d and since in a slight declining trend)
Mexico (a high in 2004 of 0,442 Mb/d and since in a slight declining trend)

These 4 countries totalled approx 41 % of world NGL production in 2006 averaging 7,94 Mb/d, which could suggest a challenge for the growth in NGL towards a world total 10 Mb/d assumed in the report.

My $0,02.

Best
NGM2 (in Norway)

I looked at the paper and agree that it is a good one.

I noticed that E. Mearns on one of his TOD postings is listed in the references at the end of the paper.

A minor issue - If I am understanding the author correctly (and I may not be), he is using the same production figures from the Canadian oil sands (p.104) and the Venezuela heavy oil (p. 107) in all four of his scenarios. The projected growth in production in these two locations, are, from his own descriptions, optimistic. It would seem like this will be adding a small bias toward later peaking to the calculations.

From Der Spiegel today: http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,druck-473166,00.html

A mysterious decimation of bee populations has German beekeepers worried, while a similar phenomenon in the United States is gradually assuming catastrophic proportions. The consequences for agriculture and the economy could be enormous.

Seems like we are reaching "Peak Bees" along with "Peak Oil" and "Peak Air" and "Peak Water". Biofuels aren't going to be very available without water to grow or bees to pollinate the plants.

But maybe if there is no food and all the people starve, there won't be much demand for anything, and everything will come out even.

If the speculation in the spiegel article is correct and genetic engineering is the cause this problem will get much worse before it gets better. Genetic engineering is a sacred cow and there will be no retreat before we all starve. And of course many modified genes are loose in the fields and are not subject to recall. Doom short and sweet. We shall see.

To quote the article completely and correctly:

In tests (it's not just speculation), bees exposed to Bt corn showed no effects. It was when they were exposed to both Bt AND parasites that things started going awfully wrong. An educated guess would say we can expect much more in this way of perfect storm scenario's.

But before this would make us ban things like Bt corn, our "scientific" predisposition would demand many more years of research, after which we might be able to say why all the bees have died. It will then be too late, of course, but at least we will be able to call ourselves scientists. Who then, according to Einstein, will have just a few more years to live.

Which in itself is yet another perfect storm: our present idea of what constitutes science, prevents us from preventing disaster. We refuse to acknowledge disaster until it's proven. For it to be proven it has to be there, and then it's too late to prevent it.

Smarter than yeast, sure, but the end result is the same.

Butterflies went long ago.

As a child, all over the EU, I lived in a storm of butterflies. And I haven’t seen one for 10 years. (Say.) Butterflies, like bees, don’t travel huge distances. The death of butterflies is generally attributed to the destruction of their environment, and/or to global warming. eg, link

Bees: did anyone check how bees go thru their different stages of life today, date-wise? Has that changed? If change, could it be linked to global warming? The problem is not new, bees have been dying for many years now. Since the 70’s in the US, more recently in EU, which would seem to negate a ‘warming’ idea.

Here in Switz. some animals have adapted by moving up in altitude. Some others are having a grand time, as they suffer in winter conditions, and gambol otherwise (‘chamoix.’) Others apparently experience some puzzlement, such as hedgehogs, who woke up around Xmas, toddled around, and then went back to hibernation - a startling event.

Juts bringing that up for the sake of completeness, I realise it may be completely irrelevant.

Butterflies went long ago.

Indeed. Many enchantments of my 1960s childhood in North America have vanished. While not yet actually extinct, frogs, butterflies, fireflies and so much more are barely hanging on in greatly reduced numbers, a pale shadow of their former glory.

There's no way to explain fireflies to a child who hasn't seen them and trying is so sad......

Hmmm, last year here in Lincoln, NE we had a week, but less 2 weeks where the weather was just right for lightning bugs.

The family was moving from Tacoma WA the summer after 2nd grade (about '59)back to Syracuse NY and Dad decided to drive us so we could sightsee on the way - Old Faithful, Grand Canyon and some other places. I think it was in Wyoming or Motana where we saw our first lightning bugs. They were so thick in the air that we got a glass jar and waved it in the air to catch a bunch. Put the jar on the hotel bedstand and watched them light on and off till I fell asleep. Of course they died overnight, but at that age that was an unexpected consequence.

Micro: Grasshoppers used to be in every field in Southern Ontario in large numbers. I haven't seen one in many years-don't know if this is a NA wide phenomenom.

"Peak Bees" lol. Even catchier than "colony collapse".

Anyone from Indiana? I am curious about this project called, Biotown, where the state government is giving the town of Reynolds a complete energy makeover. They will soon have the whole town running on a diverse array of renewable energy sources.
Phase II of Biotown, USA had its groundbreaking ceremony recently



My old boss, J. Craig Venter, just finished a 'round-the-world genome trawling expedition. Among other things, he was looking for enzymes that will help degrade cellulose or produce hydrogen. He discovered millions of new genes, so some of them will help alternative energy leap ahead.

Story here:
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/40092.html

Papers he just published here:

The Sorcerer II Global Ocean Sampling Expedition: Northwest Atlantic through Eastern Tropical Pacific

The Sorcerer II Global Ocean Sampling Expedition: Expanding the Universe of Protein Families

Structural and Functional Diversity of the Microbial Kinome

You can access the dataset here:
http://camera.calit2.net

He is extremely intelligent and, rare for a scientist, he is a good leader/manager. He sequenced the human genome and now he may revolutionize the energy industry.

Detained British sailors have confessed, Iran says

Iran showed no sign Saturday of readying a swift release of 15 British troops detained while patrolling off Iraq, saying they strayed into its territorial waters in a violation of its sovereignty.

Britain has demanded the immediate safe return of the 15 sailors and marines its says were seized in Iraqi territorial waters while conducting "routine" anti-smuggling operations.

But the Iranian foreign ministry angrily dismissed the British demands, insisting that the naval patrol was "suspect" and "illegal." "Iran firmly condemns the illegal entry by British forces into the territorial waters of the Islamic republic which constitutes a suspect action contrary to international rules," spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini told the ISNA news agency. Hosseini said London should "not be allowed to escape its responsibilities on any pretext" after what he called a "violation of our sovereignty."

Senior Iranian commander general Alireza Afshar said in Tehran Saturday the detained British sailors and marines have admitted illegally entering Iranian waters. "They are currently being questioned and have admitted to violating the territorial waters of the Islamic republic."

Iran armed forces general staff spokesman General Alireza accused the British military of seeking to "create a climate of tension at a moment when a [UN Security Council] resolution on Iran [over its controversial nuclear program] is to be put to the vote despite the fact that Iran seeks calm and stability in the region," adding, "The questioning of the British sailors is continuing to try to establish their real intentions."

Earlier another Iranian official told the Fars agency that the authorities had proof from the seized vessels' navigation equipment that the sailors had knowingly entered Iranian waters. "The British troops who are in Iran's hands knew perfectly well that they were in Iranian territorial waters. Their navigation equipment proves it.

EDIT:

In a hilarious play of words, the Deutsche Presse Agentur now persists in calling the troops "British Service People". That sounds wonderfully innocent, doesn't it? It creates the impression at home that there's a terrible injustice being committed here.

British service people questioned in Tehran

Interrogation of 15 detained British service people continued Saturday in Tehran, the IRIB state television reported, quoting a a military spokesman as saying all 15 were in good health.

---
Iran's Fars news agency earlier reported the eight sailors and seven Royal Marines, including one woman, were transferred to the capital in order to explain 'their aggressive act.'
Fars added that the service people had in their possession 'military and sophisticated geographic exploration equipment.' The Fars report received no immediate confirmation.

Perhaps the article should have read: "The service people were transferred to the Iranian capital to act a human shield for The Ayatollah when AHBL next month...

CW
Global peak: 2007 - 2010
Global decline rate, Post peak: 2%
Economic response: Severe global recession, ~5 years, then slow recovery

With the current bump in the price of crude (around $62 and wholesale gasoline at $2) I have a question for one of the financial types here or anyone else. Does the futures market
already 'predict' much higher gasoline prices?

If the futures contract for say a year out at $67.29. and the market is in contango with the top well out beyond that, then, what is the 'implied' realistic prediction for the eventual spot on that date?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=CLK07.NYM

I am figuring that the 'cost' of the money is something ,say 5%, which would push it to $70.65 and with this much risk the individual is planning at making something over and above say a bond so this would push the likely value even higher. Say $74.

I know the crack spread today is high (various refinery 'glitches' and maint) We figure that for this time of year.
If we relate a figure like that to the pump price of gasoline is it fair to imagine simply from the May 08 contract at say average $3 a gallon retail. (today $2.60)

If just that trend were to continue....The reason I ask is I wonder how many people when they buy a vehicle expect the average pump price for it's lifespan to be $4. a gallon or more? ($4 at 15mpg for 200k = $53k)or big guzzler w Saudi decline($5 at 12mpg for 200k = $83k)

Yes, you have it right. I bought my first oil futures contract in 2004. It was a dec 2007 contract for $39. If I sold it today, the profit would be $28,000. Not bad for $4,000 invested. The oil market only "works" for the close in months. Oil future investors have not factored in peak oil so they treat oil like corn or pork bellies. The conventional wisdom is broken so it is a great time to get into the 2011 and 2012 contracts.

Here is a record of my thinking

Interesting that you thought you had guessed it too high and been 'surprised' to the upside. Quite a bit of psychology like playing the 'cheap oil' assumtions of late too. Thanks.

Realist,

What, in your opinion, are the downsides to investing in a few 2011 and 2012 contracts, if you see any?

I'd be interested in knowing this as well, strikes me as useful.

A pity that more posters here haven't supplied an email address in their profiles.

Be careful guys. Don't let greed run away with you. 20-20 hind sight and all that.

i.e. if you buy at $62 with the leverage he's talking about and crude dips to $52, you'll get wiped out.

And if the US goes into recession, you will see oil fall.

If you think oil futures are good, why not buy COS.UN--Canadian Oil Sands Trust. It pays a 4-5% dividend and has reserves for the next 50 years. Costs about $25 currently to produce a barrel of upgraded synthetic crude from the Bitumen. All costs in, and it is doing it now.

Yeah, so far I'm just going with the ETF "USO".

No leverage, but only about a half-percent fee per year, and you can get in and out at will.

Not really greed, more about survival. All my extra $ goes to planet-benefitting stuff anyhow.

There are three ETF's (really ETN's) "OIL", USO, and a new one, which I think is superior, DBO.

The conventional index funds in commodities have started to really get whacked by the persistent contango---they are supposed to hold only the near term months and so every time they roll over, they lose. This has resulted in net asset value losses even in a generally flat petroleum market. Also the traders know that more ETF's and pension funds are invested in commodity indexes, and they know how to game the indexers,which are algoritmically constrained.

The Deutsche Bank fund DBO has freedom to choose the contract date appropriately based on the shape of the contango/backwardation curve, and in the backtests this resulted in better returns than the competitors.

If you're interested in gasoline prices, there are futures for that too:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=RBK07.NYM

These are wholesale prices, you have to add about 50-60 cents per gallon to get the retail price. Basically the markets are forecasting gas prices to fall steadily from today's highs, for the rest of the year.

And yes, I do think these prices can be interpreted as predictions of future prices. You can contract today to deliver or receive gasoline at those future dates at those prices. If the market consensus was that gas was going to be very different from those prices, people could take arbitrage positions to profit on the difference, which would result in the difference disappearing.

Now maybe if you go far out in years you can argue that there are other effects occuring, risk aversion and such, but over the next few months it should be pretty accurate. At this point the markets do not seem to be predicting higher gas prices this summer (higher than today).

"If the market consensus was that gas was going to be very different from those prices, people could take arbitrage positions to profit on the difference, which would result in the difference disappearing."

So the fact that consensus has failed to converge on a higher futures price indicates moderation in gasoline price. Thanks!

Crude seems to show a little better support going forward. Does this seem a little bit at odds?

I think the difference with crude oil and gasoline futures is that we are actually somewhat diverged already. Crude is not all that high, bubbling along about 60, but gas is already quite high. Since January, wholesale gasoline has gone up from $1.55 or so up to $2, an increase of 30%, while oil has gone up from lows of 52 to 60, more like 15%. The reasons have been hashed over, things like refinery shutdowns and the switch to summer formulations.

My guess is that the market sees this divergence as soon coming to an end, so that we will see gas and crude prices returning to a more normal relationship. We could have gas come down even if crude goes up a little more over the course of the summer.

You can get a fuller picture of market expectations by looking at option prices. It's a little complicated to explain how to read them, but basically if we look at August crude, the market sees about a 25% chance of it going above $71/bbl. With gasoline it sees the same 25% chance of going above $2.10 a gallon wholesale, which would be about $2.60 or $2.70 retail, not much higher than today.

Just thought I should tell you about a new Ph D dissertation about peak oil here in Uppsala. It's called Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil: Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production and is written by Fredrik Robelius.

Robert Hirsch is the opponent. The entire dissertation (full of juicy data from IHS et al, now in the public domain) can be found here: http://www.diva-portal.org/diva/getDocument?urn_nbn_se_uu_diva-7625-1__f...

Abstract:

Since the 1950s, oil has been the dominant source of energy in the world. The cheap supply of oil has been the engine for economic growth in the western world. Since future oil demand is expected to increase, the question to what extent future production will be available is important.

The belief in a soon peak production of oil is fueled by increasing oil prices. However, the reliability of the oil price as a single parameter can be questioned, as earlier times of high prices have occurred without having anything to do with a lack of oil. Instead, giant oil fields, the largest oil fields in the world, can be used as a parameter.

A giant oil field contains at least 500 million barrels of recoverable oil. Only 507, or 1 % of the total number of fields, are giants. Their contribution is striking: over 60 % of the 2005 production and about 65 % of the global ultimate recoverable reserve (URR).

However, giant fields are something of the past since a majority of the largest giant fields are over 50 years old and the discovery trend of less giant fields with smaller volumes is clear. A large number of the largest giant fields are found in the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf.

The domination of giant fields in global oil production confirms a concept where they govern future production. A model, based on past annual production and URR, has been developed to forecast future production from giant fields. The results, in combination with forecasts on new field developments, heavy oil and oil sand, are used to predict future oil production.

In all scenarios, peak oil occurs at about the same time as the giant fields peak. The worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008 and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 % demand growth, peaks in 2018.

That same paper is referenced earlier in this thread, as well as yesterday's Drumbeat.

Yes it is the same paper. And I find it very unusual that a peak oil website does not seem to focus on this despite it being brought to the attention of the editors. Interesting, isn't it?

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

500 mb is less than a week's worth of world consumption. Doesn't sound like a giant field to me. I hate these debunkers.

From vague memory. 500 mb is the lower bound for a "Giant" Field. Above "Giants" there are "Super Giants". Last two Super Giants were both found in Kazachistan; late 1980s and 2000. One has to go back to mid-1980s to report a new Super Giant found anywheere ele in the world. (Oil that is, BOe (i.e. Natural gas) has had a couple of Super Giants found in recent decades).

Best Hopes,

Alan

Yes very interesting work. He is no cornucopian. Some observations.
His worst case peaks at 2008 at 83Mbpd and then drops sharply at 2010.
His best case peaks at 94 Mbpd in 2013.
His 'demand adjusted' peak is lower at 93 Mbpd and with no spare capacity in 2018.
(He does not seem to even remotely entertain this as probable)
He is sharply at odds with both IEA and EIA who "might not fully integrate the role of the giant fields in future of oil production"
I didn't see any reference to declining energy returns but he places no faith in production forecasts for oil sands from either Canada or Venezuela.
Comprehensive work, as had been noted around here in the last few days. Wonder if he has ever been interviewed anywhere?

This morning I took a few minutes to record my Peak Oil thoughts. I did so in a series of "I Believe" statements. I think this is generally a good exercise, if only to explicitly formulate the assumptions I filter new information through.

I do not claim that anyone else should share these beliefs. You will note that I offer no arguments to sway others to my "camp". I offer no defense of them.

They have evolved considerably in my time lurking at TOD. I expect that they will continue to do so. Thus, they represent a snapshot of one man's view of the near future.

I am enclosing them, below, for your amusement.

==========================================================

1. I believe that light sweet crude production peaked several years ago - probably in the 2000 era. This is mostly a refining issue, and one that can be fixed with sufficient investment in existing refineries to process available grades.

2. I believe Deffreys was probably right about the peak of C+C production being the fall of 2005. Since C+C is the overwhelming single component of all liquids production, and it is now in decline, we entered the bumpy plateau at about the same time.

3. I believe that the first crossover event, where demand bumped up against available supply, ocurred in 2005. We had a round of price increases that resulted in demand destruction. Prices continued to climb into 2006 based on market momentum. The new floor of $60 was established. I define "bumping up against available supply" to mean that surplus capacity dropped to an unacceptably low level.

4. I believe that 2006 was an unusually quiet year as far as energy issues went. A relatively mild winter lead into a fairly mild summer (as far as air conditioning loads were concerned). There was almost no hurricane activity, due to an El Nino pattern. The first six weeks of the 2006-2007 winter were the warmest on record. Rebel activity in Nigeria was constant at a low level. We had a pipeline interruption from Alaska that was quickly repaired. The Israeli/Lebannon conflict was brief and did not spread. There was a great deal of feel-good propaganda leading up to the election. Prices held at $60.

5. I believe that quiet years will be the exception going forward.

6. I believe that we are now a year and a half into the bumpy plateau of all liquids production.

7. I believe that actual peak, which may have already ocurred, will not be more than a 5% increase in today's production. For all practical purposes, peak is now.

8. I believe that the relevant issue is not when peak will occur, but how long we can expect to remain on the bumpy plateau, and how rapidly we drop off it.

9. I believe that the bumpy plateau will not be symmetric around the peak. Peak may occur at any point in the plateau, including near the beginning or the end. This is due to the fact that the ultimate limit will not be geologic, but above-ground factors. We will approach but never quite reach the geologic limit.

10. I believe that 2007 will witness another crossover event, and we will see a large increase in prices, another round of demand destruction. A new, higher support level will be established for prices. I would guess that this would be in the $80 range.

11. I believe that production estimates made by reputable Peak Oilers are probably pretty good, but that decline rate assumptions are overly optimistic. Projecting historical rates of decline into the next couple of decades paints too rosey a picture. Historical rates of decline were dominated by fields which were developed with traditional techniques. We have seen, in Yibal, in the North Sea, and in Cantarell, very high rates of decline associated with modern production techniques. As the weighted mix of producing fields trends towards fields developed with these techniques, we will observe the overall decline rate to be higher than historical norms.

12. I believe, based on the above and bottom-up analysis such as the Megaprojects list, that the bumpy plateau will be relatively short. We will begin to drop off it as soon as 2010. Above-ground factors could accelerate that.

13. I believe that the result in industrialized nations will be a series of crossover events, of increasing amplitude and frequency. Since there is probably some minimum time that the market needs to accomodate a spike in prices with demand destruction, the events will eventually merge into a fairly continuous process. This will look like a super-inflation (not quite hyper-inflation) in energy prices. Perhaps on the order of 30%-40% per year, compounded.

14. I believe that demand destruction sufficient to match the decline rate past the bumpy plateau will require an ever-deepening recession/depression that eventually reaches economic collapse.

15. I believe that when economic collapse finally occurs worldwide that consumption will drop sharply, and create a cushion of surplus capacity, even as production continues to decline.

To quote Dmitri Orlov: "An economy does not collapse into a black hole from which no light can escape. Instead, something else happens: society begins to spontaneously reconfigure itself, establish new relationships, evolve new rules, in order to find a point of equilibrium at a lower rate of resource expenditure."

Prices will drop. The spin will be that "the crisis is over" and "good times are just around the corner".

16. I believe the Peak Oil is only one of the major challenges facing industrial civilization. As serious as it is, history may record it as an "also-ran". In America they are, in temporal order: recession, natural gas shortages, peak oil, collapse of the economy, collapse of the political order, climate change. Other nations will have a somewhat different order of occurrance based on their particular circumstances.

17. I believe that we are not tens of years away from these things, but (perhaps several) tens of months. That before the lumbering political system, which includes the corporatocracy, can be pressed into action we will reach a point, again to quote Dmitri Orlov, where "No long-term planning [is] possible. Large new projects [are] not even considered.".

18. I believe that solutions, where they can be found at all, are to be found at the individual and community levels.

This is an excellent summary of statements that I whole-heartedly agree with. You need to give it a name and market it.

Call it something like The Constitution of POA (Peak Oil Acceptance) or something.

More like a Credo than a Constitution. One that I subscribe to, FWIW.

19. I believe the United States will be better off than most after they detonate nuclear weapons in the middle east and divert the remaining supply of oil to their fat asses.

By the way, those of us who worship at the shrine of Dmitry should be referred to as "Orlov's Dogs," dontcha think?

the United States will be better off than most after they detonate nuclear weapons

If the US detonate nuclear weapons ANYWHERE and it doesn't result in global nuclear war they are TOAST anyway, all hell will break lose, it will be a maddening no holds barred assault on them from non governmental groups of "terrorists".
Rambo death by a thousand cuts.

EXCELLENT^2, and I agree!!

May I borrow it, translate it into Norwegian and post it on the Norwgian blog "Kveldssong for hydrokarbonar" where I regurarly contribute?

Again Thx a lot.

NGM2

Go right ahead.

This is brilliant - simultaneously comprehensive and succinct. I suspect it precisely mirrors the conclusions of many TODdlers. It certainly expresses mine perfectly. I'd like permission to repost it on my site (with attribution and a link back here, of course).

Hardly brilliant. But thanks for the compliment.

Go right ahead and repost if you like.

It captures everything I thought of. It's where we are.

I posted it to two energy forums.
Great Job. Very Succinct.

John

I believe in two additional levels of problem solving. Governmental and "across community".

I expect my local state to do sane investments and law adjustments following the economical changes. And I expect the municipiality level of government to do good post peak oil city planning and investments. This has been done before when our society has been challanged by change and its being done right now, not as fast as I would like but lots of things are being done.

With across community I mean that good ideas and solution will spread extremely fast across internet.

Preferably 20 years of "undulating plateu" with or withouth shaky economy while "the writing is on the wall" and we will be set for a very long post peak oil era in Sweden and probably the other nordic countries.

Your confidence in your various governmental bodies to act rationally cannot be shared by Americans.

Pretty much my view too. Good job. I'm going to save this and revisit it down the road....

Thanks for your thoughts. I wasn't particularly amused or entertained, but I was interested and intrigued. What you believe will happen may well come to pass. It's hard to tell though at this stage in the "game". The lack of solid data from Saudi Arabia is frustrating and unnerving at the same time. I believe we'll see the political/economic fallout from peak oil years before actually begin to see the effects of falling supply. One could argue that the presence of a large american army in the Middle East is an example of this development.

I believe were in for a period of instability and you may well be correct about severve disruption to society resulting from an economic depression.

I'm not so sure about the solutions, if there are any, will come from individuals or communities though. I think this implies a drastic economic slowdown doesn't it? I suppose it hinges on what one understands by "community". How big is your concept of community? Is it a community on an Alaskan scale or a community in China?

I believe we may be seeing the return of something like fuedalism or perhaps a pre-industrial form of economic and social organisation. I think one can descern a post-democratic, pre-enlightenment, shadow spreading through our political system. Supreme leaders who are no longer primarily answerable to people, but instead choose to rule by recourse to their own feelings, conscience, or God. God will be their judge, not the electorate at the end of the day. It's almost like the devine right of kings to rule because the position is sanctified by the almighty.

Anyway enough of my thoughts and thank you for yours.

How big is your concept of community?

20-100 people. Your immediate family. Perhaps your extended family. The people you work with. Your neighbors within walking distance. Your close personal friends. Your suppliers and major customers if you run a business.

As you can tell from the fact that I quoted him twice, I just reread Dmitri Orlov's stuff. Here is his major article, if you haven't read it already:

http://survivingpeakoil.com/article.php?id=soviet_lessons

I think his observations on the collapse of the USSR are much more applicable to the forthcoming American situation than, for example, comparisons by Jared Diamond to Easter Island or Greenland.

One of his points is that when the Soviet economy ceased to function (collapsed), life went on because their economy never functioned 100%. People existed both within and without the economy. In America we've had a functioning economy for three generations. When it goes, there will be a time during which we will find ourselves without alternatives. These will spontaneously arise, bottom up, since the resources will not be available to support the complexity of top-down solutions. No New Deal this time around.

Unless you’re trying to start a religion, take out the term ’believe’.

1. I believe that light sweet crude production peaked several years ago - probably in the 2000 era. This is mostly a refining issue, and one that can be fixed with sufficient investment in existing refineries to process available grades.
Very misleading and/or very not true. Light sweet crude is either available, read: extracted, or it’s not, it has nothing to do with refining. You can build refineries, but they can’t turn heavy crude into light crude. They can or cannot process heavy crude, but that’s not the issue.

2. I believe Deffreys was probably right about the peak of C+C production being the fall of 2005. Since C+C is the overwhelming single component of all liquids production, and it is now in decline, we entered the bumpy plateau at about the same time.
Bumpy plateau? Anything more than an assumption? Maybe, but in any case, you haven’t defined it. Hence, not a statement you want in some kind of declaration. Who knows what that means, except for the 0.001% that reads TOD? You mention it more often, and you will have to either define and prove it, or take it out. If not, anyone could tear you to bits.

3. I believe that the first crossover event, where demand bumped up against available supply, ocurred in 2005. We had a round of price increases that resulted in demand destruction. Prices continued to climb into 2006 based on market momentum. The new floor of $60 was established. I define "bumping up against available supply" to mean that surplus capacity dropped to an unacceptably low level.
As recent experience with KSA/OPEC cuts shows, it’s dangerous to think prices are set by market mechanisms or momentum. The Saudi/Iraq pipeline issue discussed here is another factor, and there’ll be more. You can’t reliably use world oil prices as proof for anything at all, other than: there’s no free market.

4. I believe that 2006 was an unusually quiet year as far as energy issues went.
Go tell that story in Africa.

10. I believe that 2007 will witness another crossover event, and we will see a large increase in prices, another round of demand destruction. A new, higher support level will be established for prices. I would guess that this would be in the $80 range.
Believe and guess, huh? It gets vaguer by the minute. Anything can be a crossover event. Empty term, unless defined.

12. I believe, based on the above and bottom-up analysis such as the Megaprojects list, that the bumpy plateau will be relatively short. We will begin to drop off it as soon as 2010. Above-ground factors could accelerate that.
Above-ground factors could just as well decelerate that. Empty words.

13. I believe that the result in industrialized nations will be a series of crossover events, of increasing amplitude and frequency. Since there is probably some minimum time that the market needs to accomodate a spike in prices with demand destruction, the events will eventually merge into a fairly continuous process. This will look like a super-inflation (not quite hyper-inflation) in energy prices. Perhaps on the order of 30%-40% per year, compounded.
Let’s see the proof. Oil prices may go down 30-40%. Above-ground factors.

14. I believe that demand destruction sufficient to match the decline rate past the bumpy plateau will require an ever-deepening recession/depression that eventually reaches economic collapse.
The depression has already started. Peak oil will be a non-factor. You got things the wrong way around.

15. I believe that when economic collapse finally occurs worldwide that consumption will drop sharply, and create a cushion of surplus capacity, even as production continues to decline.
To quote Dmitri Orlov: "An economy does not collapse into a black hole from which no light can escape. Instead, something else happens: society begins to spontaneously reconfigure itself, establish new relationships, evolve new rules, in order to find a point of equilibrium at a lower rate of resource expenditure." Prices will drop. The spin will be that "the crisis is over" and "good times are just around the corner".

Be careful with Orlov quotes. You make him look optimistic here. He’s not. “Society begins to spontaneously reconfigure itself?” How many deaths would it take to make that look ridiculous?

16. I believe the Peak Oil is only one of the major challenges facing industrial civilization. As serious as it is, history may record it as an "also-ran". In America they are, in temporal order: recession, natural gas shortages, peak oil, collapse of the economy, collapse of the political order, climate change. Other nations will have a somewhat different order of occurrance based on their particular circumstances.
Wrong order. And you forget warfare. Which is a necessary component in man’s reaction to deteriorating circumstances.

17. I believe that we are not tens of years away from these things, but (perhaps several) tens of months. That before the lumbering political system, which includes the corporatocracy, can be pressed into action we will reach a point, again to quote Dmitri Orlov, where "No long-term planning [is] possible. Large new projects [are] not even considered.".
The politico/economic system is way ahead of you. It can’t afford to react, it needs to act. That is its nature. To obtain or hold on to power, you have to pre-empt. Make, not let, things happen. The US is well on its way to enforced demand destruction, Why do you think all those homeowners were pushed to get so deep into debt?

In yesterday's Drumbeat, Matt Savinar (The Chimp Who Can Drive) made a very insightful comment. He said:

One of the reasons I posted under the handle "Alpha Male Prophet of Doom" was in recognition that a significant portion, if not majority, of our discussions on these boards aren't discussion of facts, data, etc. They're social dominance contests DISGUISED as discussions of facts, data, etc.

I have several disagreements with GreenMan's statement (though not nearly as much as I have with your dismissive rebuttals). However, I took his "I believe" to mean "In my opinion" and not a statement of religious faith. But that wasn't really what your response was about was it, HeIsSoFly?

Q.E.D. Matt Savinar

But that wasn't really what your response was about was it, HeIsSoFly?

What was it about then?

Greenman wants to get this out into the world, and it's full of holes. Better get it right. All those well-intentioned people do a lot of harm in this world.

"I believe" is not a very smart way to start, no matter how YOU personally see it, not when you try to communicate something to a wider audience. Unless you're Jerry Falwell, that is.

All I did was expose (some of) the obvious holes on the list, and my response could easily have been twice as long. Nothing dismissive about it, though. If I would go for that, it would look really different. So sorry, but the dominance thingy that Matt instilled in you, it won't work, though you perhaps should look in the mirror.

Matt and I have pretty much the same view, he ia just a late arrival to nuclear war. And he still thinks the only way to survive is a million bucks and a dozen babes. He'll be good, he's got smarts. You?

All I did was expose (some of) the obvious holes on the list...

You did? Er, oh yes, of course you did. And in the most respectful and helpful manner too.

He'll be good, he's got smarts. You?

Sadly, a dimwit I'm afraid. Guess I'll be one of the first casualties.

Sorry, too easy.

Better to comply to the same requirements as you impose on others:

As recent experience with KSA/OPEC cuts shows, it’s dangerous to think prices are set by market mechanisms or momentum. The Saudi/Iraq pipeline issue discussed here is another factor, and there’ll be more. You can’t reliably use world oil prices as proof for anything at all, other than: there’s no free market

Proof? Anecdote or single events are not very conclusive proof.

"The depression has already started. Peak oil will be a non-factor. You got things the wrong way around."

Define 'depression' as you use it. Prove it has started.

Go tell that story in Africa.

Define & prove it.

Above-ground factors could just as well decelerate that.

Prove it.

Be careful with Orlov quotes. You make him look optimistic here. He’s not.

Define 'optimistic' and prove the assertion.

Wrong order. And you forget warfare. Which is a necessary component in man’s reaction to deteriorating circumstances.

Define 'order' (causal, temporal, something else?), 'warfare' (economic, military, information?), 'necessary component' (in all cases obligatory? optional? highly likely? in this case probable?), etc...

& Prove them.

You see how easy it is to play this game.

I'm not necessarily in disagreement (or agreement) with either of you, but I think some sort of argumentative manners are in place.

So, let's be more constructive and assume that not everybody has read 100% of the stuff one has nor necessarily interpreted it 100% in the same way.

That is: premises, data, reasoning and conclusions.

Otherwise all this discussion only adds up to what FTX (re: Savinar) was telling.

HeIsSoFly,

Just in case you missed it, here is the opening to GreenMan's "I believe" post:

I do not claim that anyone else should share these beliefs. You will note that I offer no arguments to sway others to my "camp". I offer no defense of them.

They have evolved considerably in my time lurking at TOD. I expect that they will continue to do so. Thus, they represent a snapshot of one man's view of the near future.

I am enclosing them, below, for your amusement.

Green Man,

Regarding your “I believe” statements no.15

15. I believe that when economic collapse finally occurs worldwide that consumption will drop sharply, and create a cushion of surplus capacity, even as production continues to decline.

I find this interesting. This scenario carries with it the prospect of declining prices as it describes a situation with higher supplies than demand.

This would make abovground factors like economics “kick in” for expensive off shore production, tar sands (and possible somer others), thus accelerating declines in production (reducing supply), leaving cheaper production (like within OPEC) economical, thus further shifting the supply power to the producers with low OPEX.

Alternatively governments may step in to avoid increased reliance on imports.

Care to share your thoughts? Or anyone else

NGM2

Late night Scandinavia

The keywords here are Great Depression 2 and Warfare.

In case anyone thinks that's unlikely, consider that they convey the number 1 way to cause demand destruction. And that is what the world oil supply situation calls for.

.

EDIT POST DELETED

15. I believe that when economic collapse finally occurs worldwide that consumption will drop sharply, and create a cushion of surplus capacity, even as production continues to decline.

I agree with this statement wholeheartedly. Peak Oil will be the basis and the underlying cause for Economic Collapse. The reason is that energy will no longer support economic growth and our economic structure cannot function without growth.

When we reach the downward curve of Oil Production, there will be a number of downward curves that lead and follow. Peak Oil will begin its downward curve permanently interrupting economic growth. Economic Collapse will then take the lead. The money system will fail, unemployment will predominate, property ownership will become meaningless and the system of top-down law and government will collapse. At this point very few people will be able to afford petroleum. Ergo, the demand for petroleum will collapse leaving surpluses in a declining production environment. Other curves that will become apparent will be food production and electrical power availability which will parallel oil but follow the economy and finally population which will eventually be the trailing indicator.

Greenman never mentions some of the astronomically high petroleum prices that others predict and I wholeheardely agree with this whether he means to imply this or not. Our fossil fuel based economy is a complex animal. More than that, I believe it is chaotic. Oil price has found a temporary equilibrium in the 60s. Last summer when oil found its way into the 70s and natural gas reached new heights, it passed thresholds of varying importance that had a much greater effect on demand than indicated by the supply-demand curve. These prices that did not seem that high, in reality, had a devestating effect on the economy. For example, natural gas prices totally shut of the PVC Pipe industry which will shut down the building industry. In the next run up, the airline industry may go, which will immediately turn off a major root demand. It will not take $150 per barrel oil to turn the economy. It may only take $85 oil.

Finally, I must respond to those who are evaluating the clarity, effectiveness and amplitude of the messages for and against Peak Oil. I had posted these words in response to a discussion about CERA.

Unfortunately, it will not be newspapers, politicians, pundits, critics, or proponents of Peak Oil that tear down the ivory towers occupied by CERA and those whose power base is dependent on Peak Oil Denial. It will be the real events and inevitable change that will render their cries irrelevant.

It will not be the shouts of truth but truth itself that has the final say.

Very well put. I take these as general statements and assumptions that are considered likely, but not necessarily certainly, to come to pass. In that sense, I could not agree more.

Very good set of points ! A few minor quibbles.

#17 in particular. Salt Lake City has the best (tied by Miami) long term Urban Rail plan. Several years into a 30 year plan with current financing. They are talking about tripling the dedicated taxes to speed the building of this comphrensive plan.

Please note that SLC is dominated by a religon that also advises their faithful to store 1 years worth of food. Perhaps there is a connection ?

I think that in the early stages of Post-Peak Oil there will be pressure to build out existing plans ASAP.

Miami has plans for 103 miles of elevated "subway type" Urban Rail. 20 miles open, 3 miles under construction ATM. Building another 30 miles in 5 years is "doable" IMHO.

Best Hopes,

Alan

Are they going to elevate it enough to stay above water.

So Alan, you must expect Miami to survive the flood long enough to make the new construction useful. I know that you believe New Orleans won't be flooded by the rising waters, but some MSM stories have suggested otherwise. So the provision of rail for these locations may be one of the biggest wastes of capital in the next decade.

Just being sceptical.

Oddly, those are the 18 things I believe.

Thanks.

Light sweet crude peaked in 2004. Even Freddy and CERA acknowledge this.

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

From the article Canada ranked fifth in ability to increase oil production, a couple quotes:

Called Oil-15, or O-15, the new order put together by Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, includes all OPEC states — barring Indonesia — and includes five others that have the highest potential to increase supplies by 2015.

“After two decades of working off excess capacity, global energy supply is now dominated by the growth challenge.”

Could this be the early signs that Yergin and CERA are recognizing that the peak is more imminent than previously admitted to by them?

The reference to being "dominated by the growth challenge" and the fact that Yergin is taking the lead here, could suggest some variance from business as usual.

Did David Frum slip up?

I was watching Bill Maher last night and one of his guests was David Frum from the American Enterprise Institute. He of course is a neo-conservative that worked with the White House to get us into Iraq. But something interesting happened. At one point in the exchange between the panelists Frum mentioned, in an off hand manner, that he supported a carbon tax. The topic at the time was global warming but he said he supported a carbon tax not because of global warming but for "other reasons". He made a very quiet remark, there were 3 people talking at this time but he quietly mentioned that we should tax things we should use less of.

I think Frum and the American Enterprise Institute knows about and believes in Peak Oil. I think that is why wanted the Iraq war - get control of a vital resource that will soon be in short supply. I have always felt that the Iraq war was about peak oil, it was the opening salvo in the resource was that the Neocons believe we have to fight in oder to stay on top.

See the thread further up about Iraq's oil, SA and missing oil.

RE, Ethanol Hype: Corn Can't Solve Our Problems

I posted a link earlier to the study by David Tilman and Jason Hill on "Carbon-Negative Biofuels from Low-Input High Diversity Grassland Biomass". It is a good read and adds to the "source of biofuels debate".

http://www.agobservatory.org/library.cfm?refid=96611

I would agree that it is a very worthwhile paper. Talks about the fact that a mixture of plants creates more biomass than an individual species (such as switchgrass), without all of the fossil fuel inputs. Also shows that a mixture of grasses can actually be "carbon-negative" - that is, sequester carbon from the atmosphere.

Life in the Boondocks

In yesterday's Drum Beat I posted some stuff about wild pigs and bears around out place. K100 asked if I was joking - I wasn't - and said I'd post a longer thing today. Here it is:

Bears - We always have bears going through out place in spring and fall as they migrate from their hibernation locations in a national forest. The biggest one we had trapped was about 500-550 pounds and it paws could have reached over 8' were it standing on it's hind legs. I spent several nights sitting out in my truck to shoot it without any luck so we had a culvert trap set up. Normally bears in traps just lie down and go to sleep. However, this bear wanted to kill you and would rush to the end of the trap. It took three shots from a foot away to put it down so I was glad it didn't show up when I was in my truck and shooting from 50' away.

We've also had bear paw prints on our 8' high sliding glass doors. What I hate is when foot snares are set up in the woods and I have to check them at night. It scares the heck out of me and I always debate what gun to take.

Lions - 10-15 years ago we had a lot of lions around and I even tracked them around our house. I used to take my wife down to the gate when I was going to town and she'd walk the mile back to our house for exercise. But it became too dangerous to do so even though no one near us had been attacked. However, one person several miles away was mauled pretty badly.

Wild pigs - the pigs have always been around but always stayed about 1/2 mile away by the pond and rooted in the meadow there. Last year there weren't any late spring rains so they "went looking" for something to eat which, unfortunately, included out garden and orchard. I didn't know they were getting in until I went out to the garaden late one night. I was between some high tomato rows when I heard a "Huh, huh." It sounded like a bear to me so I pulled out my trusty 3 1/2" pocket knife (like it would save me) and backed out toward the gate. When I could see around me I could see it was pigs. Unfortunately, pigs are just as likely to attack especially if the have babies which these did. I was one happy camper when they ran away. But, then I had to start to hunt them before they ruined everything - which they eventually did. I shot some and poisoned some but there were more of them than me and they came at varying hours. This year I've set up hog snares at all the likely places they might get through the fence. FWIW, the garden and orchard cover a couple of acres. I may also try to do some live trapping this year but have to build a trap first.

Skunks - they were a real pain two years ago and ate a lot of our ripe melons. I finally packed a few with poison and that did the trick. One died at the vine and one only got 6 feet.

The big problem with skunks is rabies. One day I looked out our back door and saw one staggering around in our parking area. I went back in to get a gun and shot it being carful not to touch anything and I disinfected everything the skunk might have come in contact with.

Eagles - we used to have some golden eagles that nest about 1/2 mile away and we used to see bald eagles now and then. Last year I had a neat experience. I was going out to the garden and saw a large bird on the ground. I thought it was a grouse from a distance. It turned out to be a golden eagle eating a grouse. I sure scared the eagle as it flapped away leaving the rest of the grouse behind.

Bobcats - we have them too but don't see them often unless we try to have chickens.

Rattlesnakes - tons of them around. One time I was sitting in a lawn chair on our patio. I heard a noise and saw that a rattler had curled up in the shade under my fanny. Another time I was in my shop and heard a noise by my feet. Yup, another rattlesnake.

Probably the worst thing was one time I was at our rental house on an ajoing parcel talking to our tenants. Their 2 year old was playing a a kiddy pool. We suddenly heard a buzzing and there was a snake next to the pool ready to strike the kid. They moved a few days later.

There's also other country stuff like we get snowed in. This year it was almost a week but we have been snowed in for over two weeks. We have some nearby friends who are often snowed in for about a month each year. They get in and out on snow shoes or skis.

And, we have to drive 15 miles to get our mail "in town." we only go a couple of days a week.

So there you go. A snip of rural life. It may be a little OT but if people get the itch to escape the cities, I believe they are going to find rural life different from their expectations.

Todd

With stories that good there is no OT

if people get the itch to escape the cities, I believe they are going to find rural life different from their expectations.

What it comes down to is a different skill set. And developing different instincts.

The chunks of my life spent in a rural setting are treasured times.

If one can avoid the temptation to have a garden it runs a lot smoother! A city dweller would have to put a sign on his lawn like "Unlimited Free Beer. All welcome" to get an idea of what you are up against!

Todd,

Would like to ask if you process the usuable carcasses?
Bear was once prized as meat. I have eaten bear meat and what I had was quite good once I got past the smell(different).

In Hawaii wild pig were favored by the locals as well. They hunted them in the hills with dogs and large knives.

So having some predators might be a sort of blessing in the future as a source of protein.

Today I turned my gardens. Two this time to be better prepared.Deer are my problems. I could easily dress and store at least 2 dozen white tails a year. Summer and winter. This means meat will not be a problem in the future. Wild turkeys are becoming very plentiful and I now see many flocks. Just a few months ago I had to stop in the blacktop while at least 80 of them(many jakes) slowly crossed in front of my jeep.

When I was row cropping I was allowed to shoot any animal that was foraging on my crops. I was not supposed to process them but instead call the game warden. Well that just wouldn't work so I ended up just firing buckshot at the deers and finally getting some Jack Russells.

For those who think this year might be a significant event, its time gardens were being developed. I had a huge carryover last year and have a years worth of canned jars at least. This year I am shooting for two to three years of supplies(tomatoes,green beans,corn,beans and so on). I am also going to be laying in a very large supply of kerosene(we called it coal oil back when). I have a lot of old kerosene lamps and some aladdins. AFAIK kerosene does not degrade to any degree. I also have a 300 gal fuel tank in my pole barn that I can fill with diesel. I have kept diesel for over two years with little problems as long as the tractor filters are kept clean. When I get some money ahead I intend to by a few good mules and some tack. Get back into my blacksmithing past and learn how to finally forge weld.

I will be saving a 500 gal propane tank for canning in the future. I cook with a lpg stove as it is already.

My well and nearby springs are all I need for good water.

I don't have a mule so I used a buddies IH 806 with a 10 foot wheel disk to lightly work the top ground. Next a chisel plow and then planting time.

Its 85 degrees here in my part of Ky and its still the 3 week in March. Unreal. Most just shrug it off. They don't get climate change. The oldtimers would have been talking about nothing else for weeks while chawing a lot of tobacco and ruminating about the 'signs' and so forth.

I just returned from 4 weeks in N. Carolina near Raleigh. I must say that everyone I saw was a dead man walking. It was surreal after my long time away from the burbs. I went to many shopping malls. The one that blew me away was Crossroads in Cary. The Ford dealership there must have at least 20 or 30 classic Ford cars from the 40's on. Unbelievable. Their showroom was massive. The lifestyle I had been away from was very hard for me to envision as viable by any stretch of the imagination.

I intend to return very rarely , if at all. Yes 5 mbps on a cable modem was great but I like the slower lifestyle of my dialup,in that I have to make my time count. Having 300 channels of TV with almost no real content was jarring. Having to run to the shopping malls or stores two or three times a day was unsettling as well. Like I said,,,all walking dead.

Another snippet of country life.

No bears but some reported sighting of 'painters'. Eagle are around. Lots of wildcats. Many coyotes and of course wild turkey which are very very tasty.If one can learn to camo up and hunt wild turkey then for sure no blackguard types are going to be able to sneak up on you in the woods. At times turkeys act really dumb but most of the time they are extremely hard to come up on.

Airdale..telling it like I think it is. Others have different stories. I am sticking with mine.

Here in ore.,I have come nose to nose[40ft] from a couger,that showed absolutly no fear of man critters'or of the .38 round I capped off with the intent of spooking him.That cat had been hanging around my house ,eating my chickens,for a month.I had felt something...now I know what it was.After dark here,If I am outside,I have a gun.
The next day the sherrif I called put me in touch with the guy they use for couger control.He had killed one 3 miles closer to town the previous day...that was educational.
The main enemys of my garden,and existance here is coyotes and deer.I am hopeing the fenceing I am dropping several grand into slows the critters down.I am tired of loseing my cats to coyotes.The golden eagles that this place takes its name from have got a few of my ducks,so I have stated penning everything.It is really ugly to see what a eagle does to a duck...

I think the writeing is clear,and a good primer for where the world is now

snuffy,
You may want to check out this gizmo, was designed by a gamefarm owner to keep critters away.
http://www.niteguard.com

Airdale,

I mostly give the carcasses away. Although we have over 30 ft^3 of freezer space, we try to keep it full all the time -I'm a realist as you know and always prepared :-)

I've only field dressed one bear, the 500+ pound one. Aside from an unbelievably bad smell (It took several days even with showers to smell normal), Again, I didn't have room in the freezer so I gave it away*. I would have brain tanned the hide but it was mangy. This was too bad because I've seen some really beautiful bears behind the house that were passing through and not causing trouble. One small one, maybe 200 pounds, had a magnificent pelt of long black hair.

Now days, the agencies are doing a DNA study on the bears so you don't get to keep the bear carcass.

*For those that don't know bear fat is great for pie dough, etc.

We have coyotes too but they hang out in a neighbor's pasture and never come up by me. The neighbor is having the local federal trapper wipe them out so he has better deer hunting. I like them around because they keep things like ground squirels down. Plus, the lions wiped out most of the deer years ago and they have yet to come back so he's never going to have good hunting unless he stops hunting. We used to see herds of 20 or more by the pond in the afternoon taking it easy. Now we see 3 or 4. Actually, what happened was the lions would make a kill and the bears would take it away so the lion would kill again so a vicious circle got going until there wasn't much left to kill.

Regards,

Todd

I'm sure this will be on the drum beat tomorrow.

The first full year of Peak Oil, that is structural undersupply simultaneously affecting markets in different world locations, is at minimum possible, and increasingly probable for June 2007-June 2008.

http://www.petroleumworld.com/sati07032401.htm

Leanan beat ya to it.

How does she do it?

i am getting together whats called a crash/emergency kit.
though i need some help, anyone know of a good portable water filter/purifier kit?

Check with REI. www.rei.com

In fact I don't know, but I'll throw out a notion so it can be shot down or honed...

Pool chlorine, which is pretty much calcium hypochlorite I think, can be bought in quantity for pool maintenance. Seems like if used to treat drinking water, it would go a long way. Obviously you'd want to get stuff without algaecides.

Is this a dumb idea? Anyone?

Not a dumb idea.

I keep a big bottle of 1 inch tablets to occasionally treat my well.

When I first notice "that smell", I drop a couple of tables down the well, and all is good in a couple of days.

It might be easier to get iodine crystals. Polar Pure makes a nice bottle for this.

TrueKaiser

Have done well 'shock on og' in the past and this might be of interest there:

http://www.water-research.net/shockwelldisinfection.htm

For chlorination of water this might be what you are after:

http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/iyh-vsv/environ/chlor_e.html

and for a cheap solution to getting the chlorine out of the water so tea doesn't taste foul we use a Brita:

http://www.shopbrita.com/index.asp

BTW, I lost my temper with RR in 'comments on' his HL article, I have a hothead streak hard to subdue. Would anyone who read my comments let me know if they were out of line, that would be appreciated. Without knowing a lot of background on site I have possibly misinterpreted the situation? On line or e-mail.

Here is a little piece of history. The Hubbert linearization of this region shows it to be just past 50% of its URR. As would be predicted using HL, production did drop in the last year of this plot. To my eyes looks fairly stable, although there is a dip below the line caused by some economic difficulties it does return to the line afterward.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

In an interesting historical coinidence, the year this plot ends there was an invasion launched to sieze the oilfields of a neighboring country. I guess some things never change.

I'll identify the region and show what happened afterward in tomorrow's drumbeat.