DrumBeat: March 24, 2007
Posted by Leanan on March 24, 2007 - 9:32am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Antarctic melting 'may be speeding up'
Rising sea levels and melting polar ice-sheets are at upper limits of projections, leaving some human population centres already unable to cope, top world scientists say as they analyse latest satellite data...."Observations are in the very upper edge of the projections," leading Australian marine scientist John Church said.
"I feel that we're getting uncomfortably close to threshold," said Church, of the CSIRO's Marine and Atmospheric Research.
Nuclear Fusion: Energy for the Future?
The energy crisis has rocketed from a textbook concept into the most pressing political issue of our time. Future energy supplies are increasingly vulnerable and global consumption is expected to escalate dramatically, increasing by 71% in 2030 and continuing to rise. Energy shortages would have a dramatic impact on every area of modern life: business, transport, food, health and communications. This looming crisis has drawn scientific minds and encouraged radical research into arcane technologies, such as the once-neglected area of nuclear fusion.
I'm Not Buying What Al Gore's Selling
Nuclear power is STILL not a solution to our energy needs OR our environmental needs. It does not solve global warming. It's a killer.
Governor wants answers from feds about rising energy prices in Arizona
After seeing the cost of gasoline rose 20 cents per gallon in the past two weeks, Gov. Janet Napolitano wants federal energy officials to investigate the sudden spike in energy prices that is hitting Arizona.
Iran asking oil clients not to pay in dollars
Iran, embroiled in a nuclear row with Washington, is asking more clients to pay for oil in currencies other than the dollar and 60 per cent or more of its crude income is in other units, an official said yesterday.
TNK-BP to Bid for Rosneft Stake; BP Execs Meet Putin
BP PLC's Russian venture unexpectedly revealed plans to bid for a 9.44% stake in state-owned oil producer OAO Rosneft Friday, just hours before top BP executives including Chief Executive John Browne met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for talks aimed at easing BP's expansion into Russia.
With Prudhoe Bay oil reserves in decline 6 percent a year, it is essential that new areas be opened for oil exploration and development. With state budget surpluses this year and oil throughput declining in the trans-Alaska oil pipeline, we will be facing budget deficits as early as next year.
The Transition to Renewable Energy
There is currently no strategy or proposal on the table for the needed energy conversion to renewable sources for transportation and energy production. For all the hoopla about Al Gore's movie "An Inconvenient Truth" and given Senator Gore's own background in the Executive and Legislative branches of the Federal Government, there is little in the way of concrete policy proposals that have been introduced as a cornerstone of a new energy policy.
China seen topping U.S. carbon emissions in 2007
China is on course to overtake the United States this year as the world's biggest carbon emitter, estimates based on Chinese energy data show, potentially pressuring Beijing to take more action on climate change.
Stern: Save forests to fight global warming
The world should invest 10 billion dollars annually to halve deforestation in the fight against global warming, Nicholas Stern, the author of a key climate change report, said Friday.
A Wave Of Support For Tidal Energy
This week over 300 of the senior industry, investor and policy figures in the global wave and tidal energy sector gathered in the QEII Centre in Westminster to hear a rallying call and message of optimism for this major energy market of the future.
Ghana: Businesses face more difficult times
Businesses in the country would have to brace themselves for more difficult times ahead with the power rationing exercise set to worsen as the country's energy crisis deepens.Many businesses have already either shut or cut down drastically on production following the non availability of power in adequate supplies.
Iraqi supply woes foil hunt for terrorists
A raid on suspected terrorists in northern Iraq failed after Iraqi soldiers ran out of gas and couldn’t send half their men to the mission, a U.S. commander says.
Bolivia: Foreign Oil Companies Can't Book Reserves as Own
Foreign energy companies can't book Bolivian oil and gas reserves as theirs, Bolivian Hydrocarbons Minister Carlos Villegas said, the El Diario newspaper reported Friday....Villegas added companies that continue to book Bolivian reserves as theirs will be expelled from Bolivia.
Canada ranked fifth in ability to increase oil production
Called Oil-15, or O-15, the new order put together by Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, includes all OPEC states — barring Indonesia — and includes five others that have the highest potential to increase supplies by 2015. Besides Canada, they are Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Brazil and Russia. The group is projected to produce 72.7 million barrels per day, or 69 per cent of total global oil output.
Mexico Must Invest to Produce Crude
The Mexican Oil Enterprise (PEMEX) will have to invest between eight and nine billion dollars additionally a year to just maintain crude and natural gas production, asserted an official from that branch.
Japan Courts Iraq for Strategic Partnership to Secure Energy Supply
Building a strategic partnership with Iraq is important for Tokyo as Iraq's oil supply and its stability greatly affects the national interests of Japan, which is heavily dependent on energy resources from the Middle East.
Burma: Natural Gas Project Threatens Human Rights
Based on experience from previous oil and gas projects in Burma, Human Rights Watch expressed concern that the proposed construction of overland pipelines to transport the gas will involve the use of forced labor, and result in illegal land confiscation, forced displacement, and unnecessary use of force against villagers. Revenue from gas sales would also serve to entrench the brutal military rule in the country.
CSI: Examining California's Ambitious Solar Program
As the California Solar Initiative (CSI) moves into its fourth month, solar businesses in the state are still figuring out how to maneuver through the changing industry landscape and handle some of the issues that have arisen from the state-wide program.
A top venture capitalist and a prominent biotechnology industry business consultant today both said that the biofuels industry is poised for exceptional growth and that ethanol from cellulose appears to be the most promising alternative fuel over the long-term. During keynote speeches at the World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology and Bioprocessing, Vinod Khosla of Khosla Ventures and Dr. Jens Riese of McKinsey & Co. also highlighted the significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions achievable with ethanol from cellulose.
Pakistan: Govt plans to use biomass plants
The government plans to produce bio-energy by utilising biomass plants, residues like wheat straw, rice husk, cotton sticks, corn cobs, kallar grass and other salt tolerant plants.
Calderon: Mexico to keep corn prices down
Mexico will control domestic corn prices further to make sure rising global costs do not push inflation up and hurt consumers, President Felipe Calderon said on Thursday.
Ethanol Hype: Corn Can't Solve Our Problem
There are biofuel crops that can be grown with much less energy and chemicals than the food crops we currently use for biofuels. And they can be grown on our less fertile land, especially land that has been degraded by farming. This would decrease competition between food and biofuel. The United States has about 60 million acres of such land -- in the Conservation Reserve Program, road edge rights-of-way and abandoned farmlands.
Pakistan: Handle pipeline politics cautiously
Another snag has cropped up in the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) project, which must be handled carefully. India has threatened to pull out of the $7 billion dollar gas pipeline project if Islamabad does not bring down the transit fees it wants to charge for allowing the pipeline to pass through its territory to India. The pipeline is going to be 1,036-km long inside Pakistan and the task of looking after it will be Islamabad’s. It will pass through areas that will have to be ‘tamed’ at great developmental expense and careful political bargaining with local stakeholders.
India grapples with energy issues
India's hopes of tapping into Myanmar's gas resources might have hit a dead end, with Yangon pitching for China instead. India's problems with Myanmar follow US moves to strangle the US$7.4 billion Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline.
What's happened to Iraq's oil?
"The Iraqi oil industry has been stuck for the last couple of years." says Manoucher Takin, an analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London."Nothing has really changed.
"It's not that officials have done nothing. The problem is, they can't do much because of the security situation."
But a lot of us who are managing data centers are still in the same boat we were in three years ago. Only the situation is much worse. I completely underestimated the long term impact of not enough physical consolidation (buildings, data centers, storage, servers, etc.).
The first full year of Peak Oil, that is structural undersupply simultaneously affecting markets in different world locations, is at minimum possible, and increasingly probable for June 2007-June 2008.This may be an on-again/off-again phenomenon, but will surely add more power to oil price volatility. Volatility, and downside risk for the near-term oil price is due to many factors, notably the following...
Lauded Energy Achievement is Actually a Disaster
The news that China is about to buy all the natural gas from Burma’s offshore wells clearly shows how helpless Korea is against Asia’s super-power. Energy experts have criticized the government for failing to take necessary measures and instead bragging about its dubious energy achievement. In a nutshell, Korea has failed in its energy diplomacy.
Energy gap can spur economic revolution - if we seize the chance
Across the UK, this energy gap equates to a 31.5 per cent shortage at peak demand by 2020. This is the equivalent to an area the size of Scotland and then stretching all the way down to the Humber estuary being without power in peak winter periods.
Ecuador suffering huge losses from oil protests
Ecuador is losing 500,000 U.S. dollars every day as a result of protests by local residents at Amazon-based production sites of Brazilian state oil company Petrobras, President Rafael Correa said Friday.Petrobras stopped pumping crude oil eight days ago in the Amazon area when local people started protesting and damaging pipelines at oil production sites, demanding the hiring of local residents, rehabilitation of local roads and other services.
Chavez: China to become a top oil client
President Hugo Chavez said China is set to rival the United States as Venezuela's top oil buyer as he announced new plans with the Asian powerhouse to jointly ship oil, build refineries and expand crude production.
US Congress Holds Hearing on Oil Dependence (with downloadable RealMedia files)
The U.S. Congress has held a hearing Thursday on how rising global demand for oil is affecting U.S. national security. Some lawmakers and energy experts say America's dependence on oil imports limits the ability of the United States to meet its foreign policy goals.
Energy Consumption by European Transport Sector Grew 28.6% Since 1990
Final energy consumption in the EU-25 countries increased by 12.6% between 1990 and 2004, according to the European Environment Agency. Between 2003 and 2004, total final energy consumption grew by 1.1%. The fastest growing sector is transport, followed by households and services.



THE IPSA MYSTERY
Starts with improved relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia - SA even offering to help repair the IPSA pipeline
Immediately preceding the lastest invasion of Iraq the Pipeline is repaired and ready to begin pumping oil
http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2002/june/06_18_3.html
http://www.ameinfo.com/28059.html
After the invasion we start getting this story over and over again:
http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/ntm34663.htm
Could the increase in production in early 2004 be IPSA?
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/ksa_summary.png
If laundered Iraqi Oil has been masking declining SA production, then the Richard Heinberg rumor could be true and Ghawar IS producing less than 3mb/d and may have been in decline far longer than anyone suspects.
Found this interesting study on the pipeline, I didn't see a date but appears to precede the invasion, it's subject matter and who's doing it is quite interesting.
http://www.rice.edu/energy/publications/docs/TrendsinMiddleEast_Alternat...
That's a very provocative theory. The timing sure seems right. I can think of any number of interested parties that would benefit from such a subterfuge. Hmmmm.
Baker Institute study in December 2002 said the pipeline had been maintained and was considered operational.
http://bakerinstitute.org/Pubs/iraq_14.html
I put this in yesterday's drum beat.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2398#comment-172381
It's an idea I have had for a little while now.
.........
First, What would be the worlds reaction if Saudi Arabia has actually peaked? What would happen to the $USD ?
What would happen to the ruling princes in SA if everyone knew they were in decline? What country do you think they would "Visit" for an extended stay?
ALL VERY VERY HIGH STAKES GAMES wouldn't you agree?
What do you think the motivational factor would be for the US/Saudi Arabia to "Prolong" them NOT Peaking?
With that in mind, Lets look at these stories.
From Leanan's story above.
Mystery of the Missing Meters:
Accounting for Iraq's Oil Revenue
http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=14427
A few days ago there was a story in Drumbeat about a pipeline coming online between Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
Halliburton did all the pipeworks right?
When the US went into Bagdad, all buildings were unsecured(musuems, public works, etc) but NOT the ministry of Oil. That building was secured day 1.
I believe No oil gets missing in southern Iraq with out US/Halliburton/Blackwater knowing about it and being in on the take.
If Iraq went up or down in production a few 100k NO ONE would notice and not lift an eyeball.
How about if 300k - 1 mil barrels sort of disappeared, givin the about article's info, would you believe it? How about if those barrels found their way into some 33 million barrel storage facility somewhere?
Someone could report higher or lower production at their descression a little bit more often.
How long could say you were cutting back, but still have inventory rising for a few weeks/months.
I put forth the possiblity of US/SA gaming the system of production reporting with a slush fund of 100k - 1mil barrels per day.
SA could look good for a lot longer perhaps?
Did anyone see the article of the pipeline between Iraq/SA a day or so ago?
I think they have peaked.
Anyway, I'll take off my tinfoil hat. Just a wild idea.
Speaking of tinfoil, it's a very short leap from this chain of logic to the conclusion that this was the whole purpose of the Iraqi invasion - to redirect Iraqi oil in order to disguise the trouble the administration's Saudi friends were in.
It would be interesting if some Saudi oil assays in the last four years suddenly started looking like Iraqi assays.
...this was the whole purpose of the Iraqi invasion - to redirect Iraqi oil...
Let me throw a little Gasolene on your fire.
(Love that one)
Does anyone happen to remember what the only documents that CHeney's 2001 energy task force let into the public???
IRAQ's OIL FIELD charts.
Would that be the reason that he was so adament about not letting anything else out?
How about that?
Hey, reminds me. The reason for the first war was Kuwait using slant drilling into Iraq. Hmm. Now how far do new horizontal wells able to go? I wonder if Kuwait is using Horiz. wells into Iraq?
Crazy things. Who in the world would be so devious as that?
jc
Don't forget the Saudi connection to 911: fifteen of the highjackers were Saudi nationals. As well, this plot supplies the motive for US government involvement in 911.
Well, you know why the Saudis picked 911 to crash the planes? It was their crisis call to BushCo...to let them know their fields were starting to crash and it was time for the US to start working the plan to get into Iraq, secure the oil fields and start pumping it over to KSA.
Or...maybe it was just some crazy Talibans bored with playing around in caves. Gosh...the Taliban...remember them...seems like such a long time ago and they've pretty much fallen from the public discourse.
BTW...the above is just my guess.
umm...is 911 Arabic for an emergency call?
Well...when talking to BushCo...you have to speak clearly and in their native tongue...violence.
You mean the oilfields were crashing in 1993 too?
It couldn't have been the whole purpose, but it certainly must have been a big one. There could never be any doubt the whole thing was about oil. The exact methods for reaping the benefit of that oil is what's new in this whole line of thought. One could exaggerate the friends of the Saudis point I think. . These ('our') guys will turn on anyone who is no longer of any use, including the Saudis. The huge military bases are a declaration of the firm intent to remain.
All these plans and operations and yet domestic politics goes on as if this were going to be decided 'democratically'. That's where the tinfoil hat comes in handy.
The investments, the plans, and so forth are not ones that would be made were there any significant chance domestic politics could upset the apple cart.
$3B/yr amounts to about 0.14 mbpd - far from enough for masking the rumored 2 mbpd decline in ghawar. Anybody know the capacity of that pipeline (in barrels/day)? Could they also get Iraqi oil out on ships and later "launder" that oil as SA oil?
"Anybody know the capacity of that pipeline (in barrels/day)?"
1.65 mb/d, Just about exactly the size of the increase in early 2004. Pump Iraqi oil through an unmetered, supposedly non-operational defunct pipeline, once it gets to Saudi Arabia, say it came from Saudi oil fields. Who could say different. It's the perfect crime(and probably the largest in the history of mankind). Those are some cahones!
"$3B/yr amounts to about 0.14 mbpd" - What does this refer to? Does not appear to have anything to do with the post. 1.65 mb/d for 3 years at an avg. of $50 a barrel comes to about $4.5 trillion.
Samara, Your post is a very short way from suggesting our government lies to us. I'm shocked, shocked.
Seriously, I have thought that if the stakes are as high as you suggest, the narrative of PO MUST stay out serious consideration in the MSM. If there were to be oil shortages, other causes would have to be supplied that are 'obvious'. War, terrorist attacks, etc.
You start going down that rabbit hole and ... Hello? Hello? It's dark down here. Will someone turn on the lights? Are there lights? Am I alone? Who's out there?
Perhaps they(the guv) have to lie to us as I am assured we can't handle the truth,,as Jack said to Tom. "You can't handle the truth."
And most don't wish to hear it anyway, whilst quaffing bad pizza and guzzling corn fructose swill.
So they(the guv) knowing that tend to play their games. At least I think they are still are on our side.
Note to self: be sure to catch the latest flick "Breach".
The Good Shepherd was not that good BTW..his son should have been the one chucked out the aircraft and not the bimbo ruskee spy. He was daft anyway. Actually thinking about it Damon should have been chucked out after screwing up the Bay of Pigs.
What does this have to do with reality? Nothing and neither does quantum mechanics.
So yes they lie. They have to. We want them to. 'Three Days of the Condor' said it all.
Last week CBC Ottawa did a short feature news piece on Peak Oil, featuring yours truly. The camera work is a bit dodgy, but the reporter told the story reasonably accurately. The clip is hosted on YouTube, here is a link through a page on my web site.
That's probably the first time that visuals of TOD and Stuart's work in particular have appeared on TV. (Although anonymously)
Great segment, though. (and great tie!)
My oversight - I intended to mention in my post that Stuart's Saudi Arabia graphs feature in the shot of me doing my web research. I thought they made the point rather well.
I got the tie with the oil well design especially for doing these presentations.
Where do they dredge up these cornucopian lemmings. "They have a plan...." (big brother will look after us). "It will never run out..." (as in we will be driving gasoline powered cars forever).
The report uses the word theory but it is clear that is not in the scientific but colloquial sense. So peak oil is merely an idea and not a certainty. The denial is rampant. Do these people think their bank accounts will last forever if they have no income? There is no oil being created in quantities that fill up the reserves so depletion is as certain as death.
I do not think this report is balanced and objective. If the reporter took the subject seriously they would research the depletion rates and production declines in major fields and producing regions instead of parading some twits off the street to bleat their completely uninformed opinions. This is circus reporting (we have/create two sides so lets see them fight) and not journalism.
To be fair, if the CBC had actually assigned time according to analysts' consensus, GliderGuider would have been given a few seconds up front and the rest of the segment would have been refutation and reassurance.
No sane and conscientious reporter would ever report Peak Oil as anything but highly disputed by the experts.
Not that I'm disputing your opinion on the MSM, but considering we have had an actual production plateau for nigh unto 1 1/2 years now, when does it become incumbent on the experts to prove it's not peak oil? In the eternal battle between westexas and RR, and Stuart and Dave, isn't reality right now on the former's side?
My own opinion is that the production plateau could extend for another decade or two. (undulating plateau but at lower levels than CERA warrants)
There is a good reason why Stuart is currently focused on the Saudi situation. If the Saudi's aren't lying, there will be no peak shaped production graph -- ever. It will be shaped more like a mesa.
However, there will of course definitely be price spikes and temporary supply shortfalls as the inevitable conflicts disturb supply. Conflicts, however, tend to lock in oil that will be produced further down the road.
Except for the fact that nobody has ever managed to attain an equilibrium in their production. It's either going up or down. Indeed, if everyone starts with the easy oil and the 7000 bpd wells and the pickings steadily get worse, there's good reason to suspect no mesa is possible.
As I read it, nobody has had any resource-limit induced incentive until recently to be careful about supply (or demand). There was always plenty of oil coming down the pipe from somewhere in the world (except for embargoes and wars).
Most experts don't believe the peak oil case. But the end-of-cheap-oil case is a different matter. Few expect a return to $20 oil. That fact has to be included in our calculations. Price expectations are a big deal.
A plateau for a decade or more may have an impact not unlike that of a slow decline, given the growth imperative of the global-capitalist monetary system. Also, even as the gross oil production is level, the net available for actual use outside the oil industry is declining, due to declining EROI. Stock brokers don't understand that yet, thus no panic yet... Moreover, "oil" production is now cutting into other energy sources, especially natural gas: more of the "liquids" are stripped out of the NG to be added to oil, and a large portion of Canada's declining NG production is diverted for the processing of the tar sands.
The system is definitely currently geared toward growth. But I'm not convinced growth is absolutely necessary. Japan as a case in point. I know somebody who lived in Japan during many of those years of stagnation. There were few overt signs of real stress. Oil consumption has been flat for a decade there.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2006/02/16/GR200602...
It might not be lying what the Saudi's do. It might be that the current economical education a lot of the Saudi upperclass have enjoyed in the west makes them think that dwindling oilsupply is an investment problem. Rememeber when the North Sea declined? Many newpaper editorials and even government officials declared that soon the production declines would be reversed because investments were up.
It's funny, but in the broader scheme of things, WT, RR, Stuart and Dave would agree on far more than they disagree on. Nobody is trying to deny that peak oil is an inevitability. All of us appear to suspect that the peak is sooner rather than later - ultimately what each of those authors is trying to do is use the information that we do have on hand, and see what if any types of predictions can be made. And for that matter, I think that all would agree that if we had more and better data, that we could do a far better job of prediction.
In the end, all of the debate really centers on the relative merits of different ways of analyzing the data that we do have available. To an outsider, I am sure that these debates all seem rather overblown.
No, the debate at this point hinges on whether KSA is a truth-teller. That's what the two sides disagree on. There is an actual KSA decline to be explained. HL isn't being used so much to predict URR and peak now but to indicate that it's not unreasonable to say what's happening now is involuntary. On the other side we have KSA and TPTB in oil saying "Nuh-uh, we meant to do that."
Myself, I think assuming KSA truth-telling is a stretch. There's too much money and power involved. And as you said a total lack of transparency.
I tend to agree with your thoughts above and that's why the huge debate about HL's predictive abilities. And I agree...we need to be looking at other things besides the HL model. It is those "other things" that are reinforcing the model IMO.
If HO reads this, one thing I would be interested in knowing how resting a well is supposed to work. I'm not an expert, but for the life of me I can't figure out a mechanism whereby a well shut-in for a year would have the water go away.
oil type
temperature
s.g.
Crude oil 48o API 60
130 15.6
54.4 0.79
0.76
Crude oil 40o API 60
130 15.6
54.4 0.825
0.805
Crude oil 35.6o API 60
130 15.6
54.4 0.847
0.824
Crude oil 32.6o API 60
130 15.6
54.4 0.832
0.84
Water sinks to the bottom as it is denser?
Can someone confirm this as I'm not an oil person!
I'm not an expert, but for the life of me I can't figure out a mechanism whereby a well shut-in for a year would have the water go away.
To borrow a page out of hydrology (and I'm guessing similar rules apply), think of it as a thick milkshake...as you suck on the straw you create a depression in the milkshake, keep sucking and you wind up sucking air. You then rest your straw and everything settles back down again and you're good to start over again. Resting a well that's been water flooded should allow the water time to migrate downward as well (since it's heavier than the oil), and push more oil towards the surface.