DrumBeat: April 8, 2007
Posted by Leanan on April 8, 2007 - 9:09am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Life after oil — A children's book review - Graham Oakley’s Henry’s Quest
Occasionally when I visit my public library, I discover the most unexpected books sitting on the shelves. A few weeks ago, while helping to choose out some picture books, I chanced upon Henry's Quest, a children's book that imagines what life would be like in our world after peak oil.
Saudi Arabia may join nuclear club
"Saudi Arabia will not watch as its neighbors develop nuclear weapons," a Gulf source said. "It's a matter of time until a Saudi nuclear program begins."
Peak oil crisis will require fundamental cultural change
Like addicts, we have our drug of choice, "The American Way of Life," which, by Vice President Dick Cheney's recent statement, "Is not negotiable." However, in this case, there isn't a new dealer on the planet.
For years, experts and pundits have predicted that conflicts will increase over an ever scarcer and more valuable commodity: water. The fear has been that as populations grow and development spreads, vicious battles will erupt between water-rich and water-poor nations, particularly in major river basins where upstream nations control the flow of water to those downstream. To the doomsayers, global warming will only make those battles worse by decreasing rainfall and increasing evaporation in critical areas.
The Middle East is synonymous with the booming oil and gas industry. While Saudi Arabia is widely considered the frontrunner of the global oil and gas industry, producing approximately 10 million barrels of oil a day as well as sitting on a reported 25% of the world’s oil reserves, it is easy to overlook the wealth of oil producing countries in its shadow, and even easier to overlook the prominent role IT plays at the front and back end of energy operations.
Kenya: Fuel shortage expected to persist beyond Easter period
Operators in the fuel industry have said that the shortage in the commodity may persist beyond the Easter period.Shell country chairman Engineer Patrick Obath on Sunday blamed the scarcity on fuel transport capacity hiccups.
Oil prices endure volatile week
World oil prices jumped to almost $70 a barrel during a shortened trading week, owing to heightened tensions over Iran’s capture of 15 British sailors ahead of their release.But the strong gains were later erased as profit-taking set in ahead of a long holiday weekend to mark Easter. Elsewhere, base metals struck record highs on dwindling stockpiles.
Building Cabrillo Port will give California more control over its energy destiny.
No one denies California faces an energy crisis. However, we prefer to see efforts directed toward conservation and the development of alternative sources, instead of continuing our dependency on imported energy.
Iran to build first European ethanol refinery in Bosnia
Iran will establish Europe’s first ethanol refinery in Bosnia & Herzegovina, Managing Director of Mashal Khazar Darya (MKD) Esmaeil Shahmir reported on Sunday.Corn, which due to shortage of water in Iran cannot be cultivated, gives off ethanol, a cheap fuel, he added.
Danish Energy Plan Boosts Hydrogen
The Danish Government's latest energy plan will accelerate the development and market acceptance of hydrogen vehicles by exempting them from taxes. The plan also calls for $166 million per year to be spent on energy research, with as much as $33 million annually going to hydrogen fuel cell development.
Thanks to heat of the Earth, I’m warm
Deep beneath the surface will lie an invisible skein of black plastic piping, encased (against sharp rocks) in a core of sand. And the piping will converge on two valves beneath a manhole, from which will run two big conduits, leading through the wall of our holiday cottage into the utility room. Here will sit, humming softly, a machine about the size of a fridge-freezer. One conduit will bring “brine” (water laced with antifreeze) from beneath the field where it has been gently warmed by the soil, into the machine. The other will carry away the brine, refrigerated by the machine, to rewarm beneath the field. The machine will provide us with copious hot water for central heating and domestic use.
Iraq claims largest oil reserves in the world
Iraq has oil reserves that are estimated at over 300 billion barrels, making the country the world leader in this sphere, the Iraqi oil minister said Saturday.
Road network to connect China with oil-rich nations
Centuries after it disintegrated with the decline of the Mongol empire and the rise of sea power, the old Silk Road is to be reinvented in a network of highways and arteries linking the remote desert of northwest China with cities in Europe, the Middle East and Russia.China on Friday unveiled plans to build thousands of kilometers of roads to create a network that would broadly follow the ancient route linking old trading hubs such as Samarkand in Uzbekistan and Merv in Turkmenistan. The vast transport system is a crucial element in Beijing's strategy to tighten trade links with the oil and gas-rich countries of central Asia.
It is all about oil in Somalia-Ethiopia
Nearly two-thirds of Somalia’s land to prospect and exploit oil reserves was allocated to the American oil giants Conoco, Amoco, Chevron and Phillips in the final years before the, at that time, Somalia's pro-U.S. President Mohamed Siad Barre was overthrown and the nation plunged into chaos in January, 1991. Conoco inc. even kept an office in the capital the next years. This would later become the American Embassy when Bush Sr. tried to secure American interests under the pretext of an humanitarian mission.
Outlook on power, oil & gas and telecom sector for 2007
International crude oil prices have softened considerably from peak levels. This trend is believed to continue, though with temporary spikes stemming from geopolitical uncertainty and weather-related demand.
U.N. report raises pressure on China to cut pollution
Economic growth has brought environmental disaster, but fixing it is complicated by politics, poverty and tradition.
Confusion reigns supreme over biofuel policy
India’s biofuels policy is clearly suffering from a too-many-cooks syndrome, with multiple ministries holding divergent views on the basic contours of the policy.
Ethanol on rise, but moving it is a challenge - The fuel can't go through normal pipelines, giving industry a problem
With U.S. ethanol production on the rise, one major obstacle facing the alternative fuel is getting a closer look: the rather inconvenient system for transporting it around the country.Unlike gasoline and diesel fuel, which shoot around the nation in pipelines at high speeds and in vast quantities, ethanol travels almost exclusively by rail, truck and river barge.
Chevron exec calls for realism on energy
Politicians who call for U.S. energy independence are engaging in rhetoric and poor leadership, says the vice chairman of the second-largest oil company in the United States.
How Russia and its allies will be able to turn up
They will never admit it, but the nations meeting in Qatar this week want to form an Opec-style cartel, writes former Yukos director Alexander Temerko.
Scientists get last say in climate study
Two distinctly different groups, data-driven scientists and nuanced offend-no-one diplomats, collided and then converged this past week. At stake: a report on the future of the planet and the changes it faces with global warming.
Mountaineers testify to warming's effect
Mountaineers are bringing back firsthand accounts of vanishing glaciers, melting ice routes, crumbling rock formations and flood-prone lakes where glaciers once rose.
Forces dig in for energy battle
A four-year battle to bring liquefied natural gas to California comes to a head beginning this week, as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and two state commissions make key decisions on a project that pits the state's dependence on fossil fuels against the push to boost renewable energy and combat climate change.
Analysis: Global nuclear boom expected
A global "nuclear renaissance," the cliché for a growth in nuclear power plant construction, is not merely talk, according to a new report by the Cambridge Energy Research Associates. New reactors are in various phases, from planning to construction, and even the United States, which hasn't approved a new reactor since 1978, will likely take part.



Special Green Lights for Cyclists in Copenhagen
At signaled intersections in Copenhagen, bicyclists get a green light before motor vehicles. This allows for bicyclists to "clear out of the intersection", so that they're not in the way when the cars want to get moving. It also solves the problem of bicyclists wanting to make left turns from a bicycle lane on the right hand side of the road. A perfect example of a sensible -- all vehicles are NOT created equal -- solution to roadways which have to accommodate 2 classes of vehicles which travel at fundamentally different speeds. Of course I don't need to add that getting the green light first gives a nice little advantage to commuting bicyclists.
Copenhagen, which already enjoys the highest percentage of bicycle commuters in Europe (about 1/3rd), continues to try and create incentives to encourage people bike rather than drive, something we should be doing, too.
Copied from another list, Bike Austin by another poster, Patrick Goetz,
Best Hopes for Growth in Zero Oil Transportation,
Alan
Denmark has cut their oil consumption from ~375,000 b/day in 1973 to ~200,000 b/day today. They produce about 350,000 b/day in the North Sea and export their savings.
That's the main reason why I systematically run red lights on a bike. It's just too damn dangerous to wait for green and start in among the cars.
(The other reason I do it is because it's fun.)
Being first into the intersection and early on the light gives traffic a big clear shot to see that bike rider. Some are pissed off by this, so what, if they are pissed it means they saw you.
One big caveat. If you want to play this game, no mistakes allowed. You must be 100.00% observant of all cross traffic. The day you race into an intersection on red and somehow miss that last car late on the yellow there is a big big price to pay and no one will have any sympathy, you will have a hard time forgiving yourself. If you make it.
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Thanks for getting up and posting these articles on Easter Sunday! Its beyond the call of duty, Leanan.
West Texas
When will your next Export Land revision be published?
More mortgage fallout:
Housing Slump Pinches States in Pocketbook
Good one Leanan,
From that link,
Considering that we are just over a quarter of the way through 2007 and the housing bubble is really only just becoming publicly apparent, Greenspan may be right; unfortunately after 2007 we get 2008.
I hope someone on TOD will comment on how much time a falling market in home construction (and trading, which seems much akin to taking in each other's washing), will take to work it's way into a primary industries slump in the production of copper, steel, concrete etc. I would imagine it would be related to the speed of meltdown. What percentage of these industries depend on the housing market. I think one could go quite barmy indeed thinking of all the connections that are implied in this problem or should I say fiasco.
When reading the article yesterday, I noticed something missing. What is discussed are sales taxes etc., which will largely be levied at state level. What is not discussed are property taxes, especially the ad valorem ones, which depend on the market value of properties, and are levied at municipal and/or county level, where property taxes are typically the by far biggest source of income.
If the housing bust starts hitting as hard as it can be expected to, the revenue available to these levels of government, used to build and maintain vital infrastructure, roads, water, power etc., will fall so much that these often already stressed structures will begin to crumble.
What is not discussed are property taxes,
Or the system of taxation on any level. What does taxation mean when you have a debt-based system? What is the chance of understanding when the tax code is as big as it is.
As of 1999 it (the I.R.S. Manual) is more than 7,000,000 words.By comparison, the King James Bible contains only 773,000 words.(Per link on http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/dearIRS.php )Will anyone be able to own anything by the time the cheap energy party is over?
Does the nation move back to a weak central government when only the states and locals can deliver goods VS the money they collect in taxes?
What do cities/states cut to keep the mil rate the same when the price of housing drops? OR does an inflating currency take care of the numbers end, while the citizens all end up with less and less in their possession?
Who actually owns property?
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Who actually owns property?
Most people who have mortgages and loans can be argued that you don't own the items under a loan/mortgage. In a world where the color of law (or just plain old force) can take what you have or restrict what you do via some zoning, the argument of 'nothing' can be made.
In a world where your DNA can be used in a medical product or others can make money off of your corpse while your estate can't sell parts of your corpse, it can be argued that you don't even own yourself.
I went to that site...www.serendipity.il
This was one click away from the home page and via a radio button at the top. Also lots apparently on TWA 800 and many other topics. This is sorta on the weird side of things. Not to say they are not interesting but kinda hard to take a whole website devoted to conspiracies. I don't see DC as the head of a enslaving corporation. People in DC are far more scatter brained that the rest of us. My son worked for a long time in DC and I spent some time there, quite a bit and was not too impressed. I noticed most preferred to live in the south(below the MasonDixon line in Virginia so they wouldn't have to put up with the situations in DC. At least they were that smart. I was looking for housing at the time in N. Va and eventually reason prevailed when I observed that this was the most insane place on the face of the earth. Conspiracy to enslave?
Hey they can't even stop spam and they have a big ass law about it. CAN-SPAM.
""Bramley was not interested in UFOs when he started researching the origins of human warfare. However, his research eventually led him to what he shares in this book: evidence that alien visitors have conspired to dominate humankind through violence and chaos since the beginning of time." — Greenleaf Books""
After that I sorta discounted the whole site.
Airdale...their conspiracy to enslave us wont' mean shit once that shit hits the impeller blades.
Airdale,
I must confess I don't know the site. The quote was used in an article posted on Thomas Paine's Corner, a site that I do know and value greatly:
The Big Lie
I wanted to track back to the original, not a quote from a quote.
Your Bramley quote is ... interesting. I saw they had an article on Maria Callas too, and I do want to go back and read that, since I'm a big fan. Now after reading your exploits I wonder if she was an alien too. Thanks, buddy.
Airdale,
First thanks for your posts. Especially the ag based one. My weakest link is my connection to the ground.
"their conspiracy to enslave us won't mean shit once that shit hits the impeller blades."
Actually it will mean 'shit' in the sense that they will be part of the problem and most generally will be getting in the way somehow or other. Most of our freedom is constained. The question becomes do you have enough room to move to accomplish what you want. From reading your posts for about 3 months I suspect you do so far. Some thing are simple.
Regarding conspiracy's in general. If ALL the pieces don't fit in the story, then at minimum there is lying going on and that is essential to a conspiracy.
Specifically about conspiracy's; I had my UFO experience in '71 as an 18 yo. In the '80's I argued with my Dad that Project Blue Book was a coverup. He informed me ADAMANYTLY that it was not, cause he had reviewed files on that project as part of his GS 14 system analyst in the SAC undergound in Bellevue. I never told him abut my experience.
I have butchered my own chicken and rabbit meat.I have a '83 FXSB in the garage waiting for the economic opportunity to get it repaired. That may be soon. Due to a manufacturing plant closing I got layed off. I am going to commute to a tech school 25 miles away for an HVAC/R program. This will be my second AAS. My first was thanks to my 5 year employment at Cushman in Lincoln NE when I got an AAS in electronics/computers.
Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?
Like any good and successful crime, the way in which corporations first attained legal recognition as "persons" under our Constitution is a rather astounding story.
It has it roots in the rise of wealthy and powerful railroad interests, and the political corruption that arose in the chaotic aftermath of the Civil War. In the same year, 1868, that the 14th Amendment was passed, legally enshrining "equal protection" for all American "persons," corporate lawyer were arguing before the Supreme Court, in Paul v. Virginia, that under the privileges and immunities clause, that corporations should be recognized as *persons/citizens* too. The SC rightly ruled that corporations are not citizens under Article IV, Section 2.
However, this failure didn't stop the corporations (primarily railroad ones) and their lawyers from trying over and over again in courts of law to get their way. Several more SC cases attest to this fact. In order to prevail they just needed the right case and the right set of railroad/corporate friendly judges to rule in their favor.
Well, in 1886, in Santa Clara v. Southern Pacific Railroad, they finally succeeded... sort of. The Chief SC justice presiding over this case, announced:
"The court does not wish to hear argument on the question whether the provision in the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, which forbids a State to deny any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws, applies to corporations. We are of the opinion that it does."
The funny thing is, of which there is a bit of confusion, the statement suggests the Chief Justice made this announcement before oral arguments were taken. Yet, the proceedings of the arguments tell a different story, in that both sides of the case gave vigorous testimony for and against this very same point. What apparently happened is that just prior to handing down their decision in this Santa Clara case is when the above statement was given.
Furthermore, this announcement, despite it's vast implications, had no bearing on how the case was settled. In fact, such an announcement outside of the actual decision in the case did not give it legitimate legal standing. But it opened the floodgates to further court cases which finally did.
The case which did finally establish corporate "person" status via its decision is known as Minneapolis & St. Louis Railroad v. Beckwith, in 1889. And the details of this case are worth reviewing. (The actual case decision is a fascinating read but I will briefly outline it only.)
It revolved around a dispute involving the loss of three hogs which were run over by a Minn. & St. Louis Railroad train in Iowa. The farmer tried to get compensated for the value of his loss, to which he was legally entitled, amounting to $12. The railroad was served papers attesting to this claim, but since they didn't pay, further legal proceedings were undertaken, and a judgement was made in favor of the farmer for which the railroad was now required to pay $24.
On its surface its hard to believe this case wended its way through and up the various courts system to where it demanded the attention of the Supreme Court, but it did. (Imagining how many thousands of dollars it cost the railroad in legal fees to fight paying $24 is staggering!) And all along its way it was argued by the railroad lawyers that the fine doubling was an infringement upon their "property without due process of law," and "it denies to the company the equal protection of the laws..." as written in the 14th Amendment.
An amendment passed after the bloodiest conflict in history (over 650,000 humans) to secure the equal protection of the newly freed men, women, and children of slavery, and yet here it is being used to defend a corporation against paying an extra $12!
As if this wasn't enough of an affront, in their decision the SC ruled in favor of the railroad, and they did so by citing Santa Clara, which - apart from the non-binding published 'Head Note' of the Chief Justice's announcement proceeding the actual Santa Clara decision - otherwise offered no such binding legal distinction.
In short, citing Santa Clara as they did in upholding the railroad's status as a "person" was illegitimate. Yet, it worked.
Tragically, since then many other SC decisions have been rendered that only build off this fraud and illegitimacy. The lengths the SC sometimes goes to deal with this fact is often absurdly funny.
One particular reference I am fond of involves the First National Bank of Boston v. Bellotti decision from 1978, in which Chief Justice Rehnquist, dissenting wrote:
"This Court decided at an early date, with neither argument nor discussion, that a business corporation is a 'person' entitled to the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. Santa Clara v. Southern Pacific R. Co."
Without coming right out and saying so, he nonetheless seems to acknowledge that something happened way back then, something that probably shouldn't have as it did. It's as if he realizes: Oh brother, look where this has got us now -- tied up in fits and performing unbelievable feats of legal gymnastics!
For he goes on to explain how, while we fudged this, we didn't really change that -- whatever that was. But, ultimately, as it doesn't really change anything here, nevermind.
Don't believe me?
Here's the rest of Rehnquist's dissent continued exactly where I left off above:
"Likewise, it soon became accepted that the property of a corporation was protected under the Due Process Clause of that same Amendment. See, e.g., Smyth v. Ames (1898). Nevertheless, we concluded soon thereafter that the liberty protected by the Amendment 'is the liberty of natural, not artificial persons.' Northwestern Nat. Life Ins. Co. v. Riggs (1906). Before today, our only considered and explicit departures from that holding have been that a corporation engaged in the business of publishing or broadcasting enjoys the same liberty of press as is enjoyed by natural persons, Grosjean v. American Press Co. (1936), and that a nonprofit membership corporation organized for the purpose of 'achieving ... equality of treatment by all government, federal, state and local, for the members of the Negro community' enjoys certain liberties of political expression. NAACP v. Button (1963).
"The question presented today, whether business corporations have a constitutionally protected liberty to engage in political activities, has never been squarely addressed by any previous decision of this Court..."
Basically, he's saying, Damn, this all just stinks to high heaven; and the safest thing is to register my dissent.
So, there you have it. A brief history of how corporations achieved Constitutional status as a "person." Along with proving truth is stranger than fiction, no matter how one slices this hog tale, it is one amazing feat of cold legal calculus.
“Given his distinguished background, and his having worked with James Taylor and Jay Cooke of the railroads in late 1860s, it’s hard to imagine that Davis would insert “corporations are persons” into the record of a Supreme Court proceeding without understanding full well its importance and consequences, even if he was encouraged to do so by Justice Field.
So here is the fourth and final possibility: John Chandler Bancroft Davis undertook to rewrite that part of the United States Constitution himself, for reasons that to this day are still unknown, but probably not inconsistent with his own personal political worldview and affiliation with the railroads, and that he did it with the encouragement of Fields.
Waite was so ill that he missed the entire session of 1885 Court, was very weak and sick in 1886 and 1887, and died in March of 1888: in all probability he never knew what Davis had written in his name.
Regardless how it happened - whether it was a simple error by Davis, or Davis was bending to pressure from Fields, or if Davis simply took it upon himself to use the voice of the Supreme Court to modify the United States Constitution - the fact is that an amendment to the Constitution which had been written by and passed in Congress, voted on and ratified by the states, and signed into law by the president, was radically altered in1886 from the intent of its post-Civil War authors.
And the hand on the pen that did it was that of J. C. Bancroft Davis.”
The Theft of Human Rights http://www.thomhartmann.com/theft.shtml
you can own property, but you still have to pay rent (via property taxes) in the state in which i reside the rate is about 0.02 * of market value per year, meaning that you buy the property from the state (and county) every 50 yrs
* every time i visit the burbs (which is no more often than absolutely necessary) i always remind them that i am getting tired of educating their idiot tax abatement assed kids !!!!!
In a way it doesn't matter what the mil rate is. We can do so much now because of cheap energy. If oil were scarce then some things might not be available at any price. It is reminiscent of how water is alloted from a river. They don't give away fractions of a yearly flow, they (generally) allot a certain number of acre-feet to each owner. If a drought occurs some don't get their allotment of water, regardless of what their piece of paper says.
As property prices collapse, which I think they are going to do in the not too distant future, I would expect local authorities to charge a larger percentage of the property value in tax in order to (attempt to) maintain their revenues. In other words, I would expect property taxes to become a very heavy burden on homeowners simultaneously suffering from a series of financial calamities - negative equity, unpayable debt, much higher unemployment, loss of investments/pensions, loss of entitlements, loss of savings etc.
This is one more reason why selling and renting makes sense for many people - not just those trying to get out from under a large mortgage. Managing to be debt-free and holding on to enough in liquid assets (through a vicious deflationary spiral) to continue to pay taxes is likely to be very challenging, but homeowners not able to do this risk losing their property in the future IMO.
I doubt very much that local authorities will be able to extract enough wealth from their tax base to maintain their infrastructure no matter how much pressure they apply, but that doesn't mean they won't try.
True enough, and there are plenty stories about people losing homes simply because they can't afford the taxes. Also, inevitable, lower taxes will lag lower home prices by a year or more.
At the municipal level, there is an added twist, which makes it more interesting than the federal side of the story. The people who would raise the taxes often live right next door, or very close, to those who'd have to pay the taxes, and lose their homes on account of them. Not a very safe feeling. No doubt this will lead to some juicy tales.
In some parts of the country it will lead to a replay of Shays' Rebellion.
As long as most of the population believes that there is a functioning rule of law, I'd guess not.
Alas, actions of people under the color of law which are in violation help the people who claim a lack of fully functioning rule of law.
A world without functioning law leads to people hanging out in the woods shooting anyone that comes by "because they are survivors."
I don't expect more than temporary hardship. In many areas property taxes are local so the government is very responsive to the citizens. If more than a small number of people start losing their homes due to some bizarre economic problems then something will give quickly.
Michigan is considering a moratorium on tax increases that occur when a home is sold. Michigan is currently suffering economically.
i wonder how many of those public employees will be able to hold on to their jobs. a few years ago we were hearing how public employees had to be paid a competetive wage (which i dont disagree with)
but now with jobs being exported and jobs being done cheaper by those of "questionable citizenship" , are public employees demanding "competetive wages" ?
RE: "Scientists get last say...."
Already it seems to me that the spin in the USA is actually further "softening" the impact of the study.
Thom Hartmann (on Air America Radio) interviewed a staffer from Senator Imhoffe ("Global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on mankind...") who was trying to present the controversy surrounding the latest IPCC report as beleagured scientists trying to tone down the "alarmism" of the report against people who were politically motivated to make the report as alarmist as possible in order to gain political power.
His lie was just the opposite of the truth, but many people will prefer to believe this without checking it out.
"Intentional Ignorance" is further cultivated in the USA.
Anyone else catching any vibes on how the latest report is being handled by media and citizens?
Lies are not going to make global warming and the associated extreme weather go away. The problem is scientifically illiterate journalists who are also whores for the status quo.
They maintain the uncertainty around the subject by giving pulpits to denialist flakes without any context and rebuttal.
Only the ignorant would believe that the extra available potential energy for weather systems (baroclinic eddies and convectively driven ones like hurricanes) will somehow go unused as if they are on a diet. Entropy rules and that extra energy will be dissipated (obviously not by radiative transfer alone). One of the mainfestations of the weather system intensity is the latitudinal meander of the jet streams that give us snow in April and t-shirt weather in January.
In the end the liars and their lies are going to fade away as the hard reality starts to bite. Just like with the peak oil problem. Too bad that any intelligent pre-emptive action will have been nullified rendering us collectively no better than yeast.
Well said, dissident.
One caveat, or reservation, or qualification: life has a way of including suprises. The meek will inherit the earth, and so forth. (And why would a used-up earth be worth having? -- to paraphrase the song.)
The truly unexpected will not only trump the plans of the "Winners" in our corrupt civilization. The suprises will in some sense trump all of our expectations. We are all wrong in terms of our predictions about the future.
So we do the best we can and the best we know how to do. We strive to learn and incorporate that into our lives all along the way. The process is dynamic and demanding in ways. There are no guarantees related to individual or collective survival. Nevertheless, I trust the process. "Preparation" seems to me to be that simple and direct.
This entirely correct observation synchs with Airdale's weather related food production anecdotes below.
While the average increases projected for climate change are relatively small, it's the oscillating extremes, increasing in intensity, between the averages that will prove more and more disruptive to this vital necessity.
So far the choice has been for continuation of a oil guzzling economy over continuation of a stable food production ability. This, as well as the ongoing undermining of the scientists in the IPCC report, is what happens when economic ideology continues to prevail over ecologic reality.
Edited to add: Regardless of impending PO and its fallout, one does wonder if the fallout of lagging yet built-in CO2 induced climate change will prove to be the knock-out punch which closes the door on what's left of our PO mitigating civilization efforts.
Alas, as J.R.R.Tolkien wrote, in The Return of the King:
"Yet it is not our part to master all the tides of the world, but to do what is in us for the succor of those years wherein we are set, uprooting the evil in the fields that we know, so that those who come after may have clean earth to till. What weather they shall have is not ours to rule."
We could help with this if we could only get our shit together. We'll see.
BTW, Jeff Masters posted good comments on the IPCC report and responses at weather underground.
www.weatherunderground.com
He included comments from James Lovelock:
In his 2006 book, The Revenge of Gaia, philosopher-scientist James Lovelock writes, "I am old enough to notice a remarkable similarity between attitudes over sixty years ago towards the threat of war and those now towards the threat of global heating. Most of us think that something unpleasant may soon happen, but we are as confused as we were in 1938 over what form it will take and what to do about it. Our response so far is just like that before the Second World War, and attempt to appease. The Kyoto agreement was uncannily like that of Munich, with politicians out to show they do respond but in reality playing for time...Battle will soon be joined, and what we face now is far more deadly than any blitzkrieg."
(Masters again)
The climate change storm is coming, and the wind is already starting to rise.
beggar
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM6avr07.pdf
(This is the latest UN Global Climate change report.)
Your comment: Anyone else catching any vibes on how the latest report is being handled by media and citizens?
I've seen some things on CBC but looks like the usual reaction of "lets go buy some light bulbs honey".
To throw this back to you I've posted the above link yesterday. What do you feel the reaction to this report has been on TOD? Maybe we could do a survey here on site...."have you bought any light bulbs since the UN's 4th report" sort of thing..
Well, some of us have been doing this stuff for a looooong time. In my case, some of it goes back around 37 years.
I'll start with recycling. I was part a small group that started the first recycling center in Dover, DE around 1970. After I moved to the Bay area of California, I was the volunteer manager of a fairly large center for several years before moving to the country.
I put in my first very small (all of 77 watts*) PV system about 25 years ago and our large system (3.6kW) eight years ago. The house I designed and built 25 years ago vastly exceeds all current energy codes and is about 30% passively solar heated which is about the best you can do in my area without installing a very large active system. The house included many tubular florescent fixtures all those years ago. We began to convert to CFLs shortly after they came on the market. What's that? 10-15 years?
And, we heat with wood off of our land. I suppose gas for the chainsaws and splitter comes to 10 gallons of gas a year.
We have grown a lot of our own food too during these years.
So, some of us have actually been doing something.
Todd
*77watts and two truck batteries might not sound like much but it allowed us to keep our refrigerator/freezer from thawing when the power went out and to run a 12volt DC pump so we'd have some household water pressure rather than going out and hauling buckets from the storage tanks.
I forgot about solar hot water...put our first system in 25 years ago. This system also incldues a heat exchanger in our wood heater so we get hot water even on sunless days that are cold. It was put in at the same time.
That's two,(so far) and a better turn out then I expected.
BTW If I ever get the new blog attachment for my website going I will show with picures what I am doing.
Perceptive point airdale, before the earth reachs a new order of stability it will go through a period of chaos (which is just starting), it is something that is rarely mentioned. Just hope the new paradigm will include us, just hang on for the ride. Oops this was suposed to follow yours Airdale, mark it down as 'chaos implicit in the system' okay?
todd, dont get me wrong, i am not criticizing your efforts, however doesnt recycling just ultimately promote consumption (the feel good effect).
if you never buy or consume the product or latest goo gaw , you dont have to recycle anything.
Since I have no photovoltaic nor solar I just intend to run as long as possible on kerosene for lamps. I will be looking for a good wood cookstove at the auctions.
Last year I left 3 very very good ones slip thru my fingers. A large magnificent one and two smaller of the same design. All in extremely good condition. Instead I bidded in a treadle sewing machine. A 'Free' brand. Antique and very robust.
Clothing will be a big issue later IMO.
I can cook as well as heat with a wood range. I intend to fill my propane tank to the top. I currently use it for hot water and cooking in the loghouse. Its very economical.I will then, if still here, take up residence in the basement with all those concrete walls and even temperatures.
Coal oil in a B&H lamp works very well as no mantles to break and it gives decent light.
Airdale-note..seems the extreme weather here has frozen the small fruits on all the fruit trees. No fruit this season. I guess berries are shot as well. Big question is what happens to the wheat and corn crop. It was 28 last nite. Supposed to be colder tonite. Many trees here have frozen leaves and will fall for sure. Don't know about nut trees.
This very very warm March was the culprit. Then the very cold weather right now.
The bees are not pollinating fruit trees(not when blossoms were on)_ and it fell to other pollinators to take up the slack. Its getting very worrisome in the weather dept.
Even Texas had some and freezing temp...according to farmer forums I follow. This can only increase the commodity prices and make food more and more expensive. Tracking this with the ethanol issue? We are seeing it happen right now and before our very eyes. GW will come it with a bang and not just slide in under the door. An average is made up of extremes. Not stable values. 25 degrees for one week followed d by 90s the next week averages out to something pleasant but believe me..it is NOT pleasant. The wise MSM just don't get it and never will. Many here I am afraid think that crops just don't suffer from extremes. All they see are averages.
The Weatherunderground report tends to make one think of slowly rising temperatures. What I believe will be more prevalent is extreme changes. We have already seen quite a bit of this. I am seeing it currently.
I was initially interested in alternate energy for my home in France. But, after all the quotes came in I was put off, the cost was just too high. Also, the maintenance of the high-tech solution was off-putting (ie. problems associated with the technology: battery replacement, pumps, activators, etc.). I've reluctantly come to the conclusion that relying on new-tech is the wrong way to go, new-tech requires a support infrastructure which assumes both a national industrial base (ie. not local) and economies of scale (ie. a corporate solution). I'm now looking at simpler solutions to heating via wood (water and home) and initially relying on France's nuclear electric grid to provide power for lighting and electrical utilities (washing machine, iron, power tools, etc).
Regarding GW, I was scratching away at my vegetable beds today, the clay was already baked hard with the heat and cracking. Daytime temps are 20C-30c in the sun and night time close to 0c (frost up to a couple of days ago). Plums are in blossom and the apple trees should be soon (they seem more responsive to day time temperatures). So far so good, but a return to the cold or a continuation of the heat could both be problems going forward. I agree it's not the averages that are the problem, it's the extremes and the instability of the seasons that cause the real trouble.
It seems to me the real problem we all face in the future is the "Red Queen Syndrome" (having to run faster to stay still). Running faster requires more energy, but the returns are the same. This can now be seen almost everywhere (ie. finance, oil production, farming, business, etc). For example, I understand that McDonald's now relies on its 24 hour outlets for its profitability (more customers working longer hours and throughout the 24 hour period). But what happens if the amount of energy available declines? Perhaps our ability to run faster, as a response, has peaked!
I would also observe that going from a system dependant individual in a city (ie. employment reliant, services reliant, infrastructure reliant, etc) to a more self-sufficient status requires energy. Lots of it initially. How do we go from here to their with less energy? I imagine a return to the land will not be an option post peak for the masses. So what to expect?
Burgundy says "what to expect" and wonders about the possiblities of very labor intensive self-sutainable lifestlyes"
I have lived in the suburbs in the past. Sometimes for long periods. It was a drudge routine of maintaining lawns,putting in useless shrubs and other flora. It was going somewhere just to seek entertainment. Going to eat out was always something we did.We used to just drive for something to do. Get out of the house which was very confining. That lifestyle to me was dead but I worked a fulltime job and that was then The American Dream.
The idea of suburbs was to live a country stlye life not too far from the cities. I found it all a big sham and wasteful as well.
Ok the labor in the other venue. First you don't do a lot in the winter. You live off stored food and probably the most labor would be packing in wood for the cooking and heating(if you go that way..which you indicated). Also you usually lay off on inclement days, like rain where you can't work outside.
Your life is then governed by the seasons and weather and what must be done then. Overall to me its not that labor intensive then. Spring planting is a very busy time and tending the gardens can take a lot of time. You cut your wood supply in the spring and possibly the fall.
Good work is relaxing and brings a sense of contentment. The output is done and you can look at what you have canned and preserved and feel good about it. Your wood is ready to burn.
What might be more labor intensive is trying to maintain a lifestyle that ties you still to modern conveniences and trying to keep those running and functional.
In my opinion living in a small type of shelter and with a very good wood stove is just like perhaps Thoreau or close to it. Forgetting the trappings of modern society that tie us up.
Yes startup can be hard but while there is still fuel is when you must do some land clearing and get ready. Its hard without animal power to till or work the soil if you have a large garden. Hand tools are just borderline.
So you try to use animals. Consider if you went all the way.
You have fresh eggs,very good chickens to eat, a hog maybe and a good ham is hard to beat,fresh milk and butter without the nutrients being pasterurized out of it. Fresh food with incredible energy in it and great taste. IMO in this hightech age we have been sold a bill of goods regarding our supermarket food. Its incredibly awful. Incredibly expensive and now dangerous to your health as well.
Ok. What it takes as well is a mate who will abide with you. Male or female. Kids to help are good. With no taxes,no body to take away your freedom, no traffic to contend with..the list is endless.
I see it as having a very very good VEROEI...virtual because NO MONEY is involved to screw everything up. You barter with your neighbors, to get a new strain of laying hens,to mate your mare with their jackass and so on.
What is wrong with this lifestyle then? I know people who do part of this already. My neighbor just ordered a bunch of chicks and is now raising 50 or so. He intends to supply himself and others with some very good pullets and fryers.
He also makes homesausage. Believe me..the taste is incredible,way way beyond the best storebrought.
What the problem is with the above is very simple. Most have absolutely no comphrension of just how to do it. They might not even know how to milk a cow by hand or gather eggs from under sitting hens. How to can food. How to chop wood. How to build a fire. How to pluck a chicken. How to scrape a hog... This is something you should and will need to have reference material on if you don't know how.
Airdale-
Excuse my city boy ignorance. But what is wrong with the "reach under chicken and grab egg" technique?
An angry hen can peck hard enough to draw blood!
It's the rooster coming to the rescue of the hen that you should concern yourself over ;)
But no one has told me how to get the egg away from the chicken! :-)
Just to add, my experience with hens and eggs was much more pleasant than what you guys are talking about.
My folks keep a couple of hens. When I visited they told me to go out and get some eggs for breakfast. I went out to the henhouse and the chickens were just walking round clucking. They had laid all their eggs together in one corner and weren't sitting on them. I picked them up and put them in a basket. There was no rooster and the hens didn't seem to care I was even in there.
I never had any problems gathering eggs, either. I used to do it as a toddler. My great-grandmother had a chicken coop in her garden. And a family friend had a pretty large henhouse. I stuck my hand under the hens and swiped their eggs all the time.
The worst thing that ever happened to me was when I put some eggs in my pocket, forgot about them, and sat down. Eggs all down the legs of my pants.
How to get those eggs from the chicken on the nest.
First rule. Never put your eyeballs within striking distance of a chicken. They seem to be fascinated by pupils and just might peck your eye. Ouch.
The hen is on the nest. If you just put you hand out and try to get under her ,,yes I have been pecked doing that. Wont' work always.
What you do is sorta fake it with one hand in front of her to get her attention and with the other hand come over sideways and grab her by the feathers on her back (right in the middle of the back)and lift straight up. Chicken can't do anything about it.
You can then take some of the eggs. We always left some so she would continue laying. Sometimes we put fake wooden eggs under then or in empty nests.
Plucking the hen off her nest means you must be quick. Of course they may wise up to this. Its best to wait til they leave the nest. Maybe scatter some corn on the ground nearby.
Roosters. Going to the outhouse as a child with a mean rooster in the yard was always a test of wills. You tried to get past the dude but he always knew it and came running right straight at you. You had to beat him to the outhouse or get a flogging if not fast enough. Some were mean dudes.
Fun was watching your girl cousins try to outrun a rooster on their tail when they had to go to the outhouse. Girls couldn't run too fast you see and were always scared shitless of roosters. Of course I always told them something else to bullshit them so I could see a good tussle. "That rooster won't hurt you." or "He will rip your leg open."
If they didn't trim the roosters spur he could jab you with it. Pretty nasty to be flogged by a rooster. Humiliating as well. Best thing was to carry a tobacco stick with you and knock the shit out of him as he came at you.
To get even then was the game and taking the eggs was part of getting even. Life on the farm ...always something going on.
You mean like this?
:-)
No nuts either, I would imagine.
Hi Airdale,
Thanks for the updates.
re: "I bidded in a treadle sewing machine. A 'Free' brand. Antique and very robust."
If you don't mind the question, how much did you pay for it?
And have you seen many of them around?
Hey Aniya,
This machine was made before the Singer with the familiar bobbin. This one has a sliding shuttle type of bobbin. It was in very good condition and so I bid it in at $125...Far more than I should have bid but thats the way it goes sometimes.
I stood right beside the 3 wood ranges and should have bid on them but my mind was not in the right place at that time. The 3 wood range cooking stoves went for about $3xx total. Probably easily worth $1000 elsewhere.
Never seen another Free around.
Lots of very old singer treadles though if one gets out in the rural areas where the auctions are held.
Changing lightbulbs is nothing but today's version of the state of denial. Media and politics have pre-empted and hijacked the climate issue, which means it's dead, and will only be used to further existing agenda's.
The predictable result is the inflation/devaluation of terms like green and sustainable. The oxymoron "green cars" has been used so much, nobody questions it anymore. As a society, we will change our ways only if we can make a profit doing so. For that, green cars work miracles. For the climate, they are a disaster.
-------
Late last year, the first news of interference with the IPCC reports surfaced. I then expressed the wish that some of the scientists involved would speak out in public, and be quoted in the media. The LA Times article below may be a start.
The climate is in a much worse state than the IPCC reports claim. Of that we can be sure. Not only has there been interference at the last stages of writing, the reports are strictly based on consensus. A few "denying" scientists can thus water down conclusions a lot, even before the writing begins.
Exactly what I meant HeIsSoFly, and thanks for the L.A.Times exerpt.
I also think that if we wait for governments to act, there will be more suffering than warranted. Organs like TOD could be offering more advise about what to do in this, as Kunstler puts it his phrase, 'long emergency'. If MSM shouts no warning and gives no advise it leaves that in the hands of individuals and alternate media.
BTW that is rather mean spirited of you shoving so many capitals into your (I hope) nom de guerre, I am ready to take an axe to my caps lock button.
Yeah, I feel really wasteful with 4 against your 3.
Appealing to politicians and governments is, mildly put, not very smart. Governments can't act, they can only attempt to channel developments into directions most profitable for their financial backers.
Hijacking the climate issue is a prime example, even more so in Europe to date than in North America.
Not only is it a politically wise move, since you get votes, it's also the best way to blunt the issue. If you can make people believe you will take care of the problem, they will back off, content that they have done "good" and democracy works, and content that they can now go on doing what they did.
They will even pay you money (more taxes) to take care of the problem. At various points in the future, you tell them that it's not easy, it takes time, yada yada. Works all the time, not least of all because the media will simply quote whatever you say, no questions asked.
In the meanwhile, you've guaranteed that nothing happens that would hurt your financial backers.
And I do let you come up for air twice not like those punk kids who used to hold my head underwater at the beach after kicking sand in my face.
Quite agree with you about politicians, they have become so used to listening to their master's voice, it is only rarely that there is one that avoids giving a Judas kiss to the electorate.
I switched to fluorescents 10 years ago. Hey, maybe I am an early adopter!
Hate to mention this Engineer-Poet, but you could also end up an early blind guy if you stare at them a lot as they do give off a lot of the ultraviolet which is not good for the old eyeballs. Also if you have any trouble getting to sleep at night, try an old fashioned incandescent as they are more in the nity-nyte light frequency range.
I am stocking up on incandescents before they are banned...this old body needs a full 6 hours every night.
Remember too that good intentions can lead to the blind staggers, as my stewed as a prune Uncle always said. Said it at the top of the basement stairs once too, to everyones subsequent amazement.
I'm a big fan of indirect light, so most everything goes off the wall or ceiling before I see it. I've noticed some bleaching effects on shade material held within a couple inches of a circle tube, but nothing else so far. Sunlight would do the same.
Do you need light to sleep?
To reply in a similar vein six; Yes, to sleep lightly.
Engineer Poet, Good of you to mention the indirect use of new lighting. In the future cataract surgery may be not as readily available as now.
FYI, I just checked a lamp which has been running a twist-tube CF (3-way, operated almost entirely on low) for about 10 months so far, operating most evenings on a timer. No visible degradation of the shade. I think the UV filtering is better now.
Unlikely. Standard glass has a resonance in near UV, and another one in near IR, which is why it reflects IR and absorbs UV. Glass is only transparent in a very narrow range right around the visible spectrum. Only UV significantly harms your eyes, unless it to so intense as to cause heat based damage, which would be very rare. This is also why you can't get a sunburn indoors, even if you do lie in the sun.
Richard Feinmann was able to look at a nuclear explosion through a truck's windshield with no ill effects. He is commonly thought to be the first person to see a nuclear explosion with the naked eye.
It is unlikely that enough UV escapes from a fluorescent bulb to cause eye damage. I would think that the more pressing danger would be the filament of a transparent incancdescent, which