DrumBeat: May 1, 2007
Posted by Leanan on May 1, 2007 - 9:12am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Venezuela pulls control from Big Oil
President Hugo Chavez's government took over Venezuela's last remaining privately run oil fields today, intensifying a decisive struggle with big oil over one of the world's most lucrative deposits. The companies giving up control include BP, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
Will climate change doom humanity to an existence mimicking Dante's Inferno? Will nuclear proliferation threaten humanity with annihilation as depicted in Dr. Strangelove? An increasing number of pundits, policymakers and even environmentalists believe that nuclear energy can save us from massive death by climate change and will not lead to massive destruction by nuclear war. (Nuclear fuel making technologies can also be used to produce explosive material for nuclear weapons.) But as I wrote in a new Council on Foreign Relations report, Nuclear Energy: Balancing Benefits and Risks, this view oversells the contribution nuclear energy can make to strengthen energy security and reduce global warming while downplaying the dangers associated with this energy source.
John Browne resigns position after judge allows newspaper to publish details of his private life; Tony Hayward takes over.
Getting containers off road and up river
The U.S. Maritime Administration sees merit in the proposal, which would help reduce traffic and pollution and boost a U.S. Department of Transportation initiative to move more cargo via the nation's waterways. Only 2 percent o f the nation's freight now moves that way, with the rest moving on highways and railroads.
It was a monster fill for Marc Fischer's Ford Excursion.When the pump came to a halt yesterday at a Columbia Exxon gas station, the bill was a whopper: $91.61. And it might continue to grow.
Chavez: China Okays US$6bn Oil E&P Fund
China has agreed with Venezuela to support a fund that would finance US$6bn in extra-heavy and heavy crude oil E&P projects, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez said in a report from state news agency ABN.
Iran oil, gas production on the rise
Iran's oil production is expected to exceed 5.316 Mln barrels per day by the end of the country's 5th Development Plan (early 2015).
Gearing Up for Gulf Hurricanes: Offshore Technology Conference
In recent years, Gulf Coast hurricanes reminded oil companies and offshore drillers they are little match for Mother Nature.But improvements in everything from weather forecasting to rig tie-downs may give the energy industry more of a fighting chance this hurricane season.
Kurds will vote against oil law
While Baghdad warns regional governments not to sign oil and gas contracts, the Kurds say they will vote against the draft oil law.
Philippins: Pimentel says coal import could bankroll TU campaign
Senate Minority Leader Aquilino Pimentel Jr expressed fear that the alleged artificial shortage in coal supply could be used in raising funds for administration candidates in the May 14 elections.
Germany in losing battle to save glacier
The winds are cold at any time of the year on Germany's highest mountain but the country's last glacier is melting away despite Herculean efforts to counter the effects of climate change.
Seeing the trees for the forest: WHRC scientists creating national biomass and carbon dataset
After completing a two-year pilot phase, scientists at the Woods Hole Research Center are expanding the scope of the "National Biomass and Carbon Dataset" for the year 2000 (NBCD2000), the first ever inventory of its kind, by moving into the production phase. Through a combination of NASA satellite datasets, topographic survey data, land use/land cover data, and extensive forest inventory data collected by the U.S. Forest Service – Forest Inventory and Analysis Program (FIA), NBCD2000 will be an invaluable baseline data set for the assessment of the carbon stock in U.S. forest vegetation and will improve current methods of determining carbon flux between vegetation and the atmosphere.
India: RIL plans to start production of coal bed methane by 2009
In a move that could have some bearing on the future of the energy sector in India, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) plans to start commercial production of six million metric standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd) of gas from its coal bed methane (CBM) block in Madhya Pradesh by 2009, said an executive of the company who did not wish to be identified. The Mukesh Ambani-controlled company will be among the country’s first to commercially extract CBM, a fuel that is akin to natural gas, only less polluting.
Enough Electricity for Five Times World Demand
While the world annually consumes roughly 14,000 terawatt hours (tWh) of electricity, the yearly potential electricity generated from tidal currents has been estimated at 80,000 tWh.
Willem Middelkoop looks behind the scenes of the economy
Daan de Wit: But the price of oil?Willem Middelkoop: In my opinion it can only go higher, and that's not including what ends up happening with Iran. I follow the data on worldwide supply and demand, and for the first time we've arrived at a situation in which the demand for oil has exceeded supply for three years running. We've talked often about peak oil and possible problems in the future if the demand is greater than the supply. But the future is now, because in 2006 the demand for oil was 100,000 barrels greater than the supply. We're talking about 100,000 barrels per day. This year the shortage is up to 700,000 barrels per day, and for next year yet another shortfall is predicted. So that's three years in a row with an oil shortage. And then the last thing we'll need is another conflict in the Persian Gulf.
In recent months we at SRA have received a growing number of requests to address the question of peaking world oil production from a political point of view. To wit, is not peak oil just another wheeze to create a crisis that would facilitate the creation of global government? Isn’t it just a means to discredit global warming activism? Don’t the banks and oil companies have a vested interest in promoting the idea of Peak Oil to get prices up? I may be missing some of the questions and comments in this brief synopsis, but basically these three points seem to pretty well encapsulate the sorts of feedback we have been getting.
Back to the Cold War? Putin's Policies Head in a Dark Direction
It's difficult to avoid the impression that with Russia, we may be gravitating toward a new cold war. Flush with cash as a result of soaring energy prices, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin behaves like a man who is utterly unconstrained by "world opinion" (however defined), or the possibility of incurring Washington's wrath.
Azerbaijan in the National Energy Policy of the USA
The energy turmoil of 2000-2001 prompted Bush to establish the National Energy Policy Development Group (NEPDG), a task force of senior government representatives charged with developing a long-range plan to meet U.S. energy requirements. To head this group, Bush picked his closest political adviser, Vice President Dick Cheney. A Republican Party stalwart and a former secretary of Defence, Cheney had served as chairman and chief executive officer of the Halliburton Co., an oilfield services firm, before joining the Bush campaign in 2000. As such, Cheney availed himself of top executives of energy firms, such as Enron Corp., for advice on major issues.
Hotels in Costa Rica Worried About Energy Rationing
They're afraid their guests will cancel reservations as they learn of Costa Rica's energy crisis, which has been evident since an unplanned massive blackout occurred April 19. Smaller, scheduled blackouts have since become the norm as the Costa Rican Electricity Institute (ICE) rations the country's insufficient energy supply.
Alternative fuels find home in La.
Within the last year, two companies in the West Monroe area have announced plans to build manufacturing facilities that turn agricultural and wood waste into alternative energy products.
Ethanol may not be the solution the administration is looking for. In fact, production of the additive brings with it a host of challenges. Challenges that could leave environmentalists, farmers and possibly even consumers frustrated and disappointed.
The Chief Executive Officer of the Ghana Investment Promotion Centre (GIPC), Mr. Robert Ahomka-Lindsay has asked Ghanaian industries to stop using the current energy crisis as an excuse, and use other available opportunities for their growth.
Chile's Hydroelectric Projects: Indispensible
Plans to build at least five massive hydroelectric dams in Chile’s Region XI have generated harsh criticism from many sources - national and international, as can be seen in today’s lead story. Critics are asking a simple question: Why does Chile have to repeat the energy development mistakes made in Europe, North America, and Asia, when energy efficiency and renewable energy sources are finally coming into their own due to high fossil fuel costs? What about low impact hydro, thermal, wind, tide and solar energy sources – especially now that climate change problems are finally beginning to be recognized around the world?
It's not a new message from T. Boone Pickens, but it's a difficult one to refute. For a while, Pickens has been circling North America sharing his thoughts about the phenomenon of peak oil. The term refers to the point at which our planet's increasingly voracious appetite for oil begins to exceed the ability of the world's oil companies -- private and government-owned -- to produce it.
Last night at midnight, the alternate reality game (ARG for short) World Without Oil launched. In the game, the world has hit peak oil and there are news reports of crises from around the world. The goal of the game is to get real people around the world to start thinking about life without oil. To get them to answer questions like: How will they cope? What will they have to sacrifice? What can they do to help the world?
Book Review: The Coming Economic Collapse
Author Stephen Leeb makes an argument for why crude will reach $200 and how an investor can profit from that. He spends about 80 percent of The Coming Economic Collapse establishing the argument for peak oil and the rest on how to profit – as absurd as that may sound.
Why not make mass transit always free?
In the age of global warming, increasing gasoline prices, and (though I am personally a skeptic) the concerns about "peak oil", the supposedly progressive San Francisco Bay Area is living in the virtual mass transit dark ages. The damage to the MacArthur Maze in west Oakland will only make that more obvious to everyone.
Is An Alternative Energy Bubble On the Horizon?
With Al Gore's 'An Inconvenient Truth' sweeping Hollywood and monster storms swamping coastlines, global warming is nearly impossible to ignore anymore. Add to this perennial Middle East tensions and peak oil fears and you've got the perfect recipe for a looming energy crisis. How do we save the world and still live our energy-dependent, modern lifestyles? Many corporations, venture capitalists and individual investors believe that cleantech is the answer.
The Year of Magical Eating: The 100-mile diet and other food stunts
Those who defend the pleasures and economies of modern life against the romanticizers of a zero-impact, local eating, fresh fruits and veggies past often overemphasize the soul-numbing drudgery of rural life. Picking berries and turning them into jam while chatting with a friend has been one of womankind's great pleasures for centuries. But just because it isn't awful doesn't mean that it isn't time-consuming labor. And in modern times, laying a hand on local berries in the first place can be pricey, U-Pick or not.
Are plants the power source of the future? Biomass could be one solution to our dependency on fossil fuels. Though biodiesel from rapeseed and alcohol from grains are uneconomical and hardly less harmful to the environment than gasoline, second-generation production methods are now fueling a new optimism.
George Monbiot - The rich world's policy on greenhouse gas now seems clear: millions will die
Our governments have set the wrong targets to tackle climate change using outdated science, and they know it.
Arctic melt faster than forecast
Since 1979, the Arctic has been losing summer ice at about 9% per decade, but models on average produce a melting rate less than half that figure.The scientists suggest forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) may be too cautious.
Canada climate change plan is questioned
The head of the international body that oversees the Kyoto treaty said Monday that Canada's new climate change plan does not guarantee that greenhouse gas emissions will decrease.
Annual pump price rise is fast, furious this year

With prices in many parts of the country, especially on the West Coast, already well above $3 a gallon, some of the most pessimistic forecasts calling for peaks above $4 a gallon in some locations.“I think it’s probably one of the worst-looking years we’ve seen," said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at futures broker Fimat. "And that's probably why you’re seeing more apocalyptic forecasts than is typically the case.”
Oil Companies Created 'Shortage' That Is Driving Record Pump Prices, Says Group
Even as crude oil prices fell slightly today, gasoline prices continued a rocket trajectory upward due to "supply shortages" resulting from a combination of ineptness and greed on the part of oil companies, said the Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights.
Many methods, one basic idea shape new oil-shale technology
If you’re not going to mine it, you’ve got to heat it in the ground before you pump it out.That’s the general plan for Royal Dutch Shell, EGL Resources, Chevron and possibly ExxonMobil. Each company hopes to relieve Colorado’s Green River Formation of its hydrocarbon-rich marlstone, or carbonate mud.
Japan follows Korea's path to Middle East oil security
Japan's plan to lease out some of its oil storage facilities to Saudi Arabia and secure longer-term supply deals show Tokyo taking a page out of Seoul's book on how to cut costs in its quest for energy security.After decades of attempting to protect itself from oil supply disruptions by buying overseas fields or spending billions on government and industry stockpiles, Tokyo appears to be taking a new, more commercial tack in an increasingly competitive world.
6 oil workers kidnapped in Nigeria
Gunmen armed with dynamite seized six foreign workers and killed a Nigerian sailor in an attack on a Chevron Corp. ship in Nigeria's southern oil-producing region, a navy spokesman said.Capt. Obiora Medani said the ship was attacked off Bayelsa state where it was serving as a container for crude oil.
Saudi says oil security main topic at Riyadh meeting
Security of oil supplies will be a core topic at a meeting of Asian oil exporters and consumers in OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia this week, the Saudi oil minister said in remarks broadcast on Monday.
Rich Oilfield Discovered in Northern Kuwait
Kuwaiti Minister of Oil Sheikh Ali Al-Jarrah Al-Sabah announced Monday that a rich oil field was discovered in northern Kuwait, the official KUNA news agency reported.In a statement, Sheikh Ali Al-Jarrah said that initial examination of the site proved it contained a huge amount of light oil and affiliate gas, but he did not release the reserves of the new field.
Nations urged to reduce greenhouse gases
The European Union called on developing countries Tuesday to take immediate steps to reduce greenhouse gases, saying they must stop blaming richer nations for their own failure to act.
Poor countries demand a voice on climate change
As climate change experts meet in Bangkok, poor nations suffering the brunt of global warming's worst effects are determined their voices will not be drowned out by bickering world powers.
Climate change threatens Indonesian rice farmers: study
Indonesian rice farmers in Java and Bali must invest in hardier crops and better water storage methods if they hope to maintain harvests in the face of manmade climate change and weather systems such as El Nino, according to a new study.
Chinese puzzle bamboozles U.N. climate talks
U.N. talks on climate change are at risk of bogging down under the weight of hundreds of amendments from governments and China's objections to a proposed blueprint for battling global warming, a senior delegate said on Tuesday.
A Black History of Our Oil Addiction
MP3 audio interview with Edwin Black, author of Internal Combustion on the electric car conspiracy.



That's an interesting pattern on that chart. I hope we hit $4/Gallon this summer.
$4 a gallon doesn't sound much for Europeans.
However if we had three times higher prices since 2002 today, as the chart shows for the US, that would mean 3,60 Euros a litre (more than $10/gallon).
Yes
In sweden the gasoline price since 2002 has not jumped much at all. The price as i recall it 2002 was about 10 krona/litre, summer 2006 it was breafly 12 krona/litre. Today when i filled my car it was 11,88 krona/litre. So the price rise here is propably not much more than the usual inflation. Gasoline is still cheap.
The price rise in USA must mostly be dependent of the decent of the USD value since 2002.
Gasoline isn't the only thing that will be rising in the near future. What a train wreck!
ELP anyone?
The war for your electric bill
Oh! Poor texas with their high electric rates of 12 plus cents per kilowatt. Try 32 cents on to see a good jump in your bill. We seem to be able to cope with these rates so far, but it will just be more heat to the fire as peak unravels. I'm putting in a 125 KW hydro unit. At least we will have electricity.
If you would like some technical assistance, let me know. My eMail is under my name if you click it. Perhaps we can talk.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Is the seasonality of the past couple of years something new, or was the non-seasonality of the few preceeding years the exception?
If the seasonality is emergent, what is causing it? More and longer vacation driving? More hurricane evacuations? Or something else?
My guess: with supply now very close to the inelastic demand, slight changes in either can cause major price swings. Seasonal driving patterns in the USA cause such changes in demand. Hurricanes and wars cause changes in supply, but that's not as reliably "seasonal".
We can call it the "Peak Oil Buzzsaw."
Each spike slices through what's left of discretionary income and leaves the US economy in an increasing morass of bloody tatters.
-best,
Wolf
Superimpose a supply chart over the price chart and it becomes obvious what is happening.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
I hope we hit $4/Gallon this summer.
Frankly, so do I, as I believe price is the only thing that will get people's attention and cause them to conserve.
FYI, I have published an analysis of what I think we will see with tomorrow's report, as well as why the gasoline situation does not support the "Peak Now" view. It doesn't disprove it either, but I believe those who think it supports a current oil peak are misreading the situation. It wouldn't help us one iota at the moment for Saudi to open the taps. We have to get current crude inventories headed down first, and we can only do this by getting refinery utilization back up. See my analysis at:
My Views on the Gasoline Inventory Situation
Also, Doug Macintyre, the author of This Week in Petroleum - and the guy who puts the EIA reports together - is again posting in the comments section following that essay. If you have a question about what's going on, he has been pretty good to answer them. As I pointed out in my latest essay, so far my price prognostications are ahead of his. :-)
Hi Robert,
I don't think the gasoline situation is directly related to Peak Oil either at the moment.
But one thing that does confuse me (re:KSA increasing production) is why did we draw so much from inventory in Jan and Feb 07(about 1MMBPD/80.5Million barrels in Feb)?
We can increase gasoline production, but if we are still drawing down crude inventory(OECD), isn't that going to squeeze eventually?
The crude inventory draw (OECD) is the area that concerns me most. So, to me, that is where the KSA question comes in, can they swing 1MMBPD to balance the equation!?
What do you see happening?
The crude inventory draw (OECD) is the area that concerns me most. So, to me, that is where the KSA question comes in, can they swing 1MMBPD to balance the equation!?
What do you see happening?
I notice that the OECD has reduced their demand forecast for 2007. But, if the OECD inventories continue to come down, Saudi will be called upon regardless of what's going on in the U.S. But we aren't going to be calling on them unless we start pulling our own inventories down. I hope we see a situation this year where they are definitely called upon to supply more oil, because that will start to answer a lot of questions.
Thanks. Yes, it would be nice to know one way or another if KSA has capacity left.
Right on. Consume More!
But what if refinery utilization can't be improved, if there are always other "facts on the ground"? Our whole system is so oil dependent it doesn't seem to me like lthat is any different than our being unable to find enough engineers, pipe or platforms from which to drill. We still max out on production. It's just another variation on the Law of Receeding Horizons, isn't it?
The more we depend on the efficiency of a monoculture the more vulnerable we will be to any disturbance - everything has to be exactly right to increase yield. Consequently the system as a whole peaks out just because a butterfly flaps its wings.
Yeah, we could produce more oil if we dumped it out of the wellhead onto the ground so we are not maxed out? The system has a certain amount of head; making it more efficient actually increases that head.
cfm in Gray, ME
Well said. This also applies to what's going on with imported European honey bees and our monoculture of corn. It's always good to have diversity in the system in order to deal with the breakdown of one piece. Leaves us with alternatives. The reason it is not part of business standard protocol is that it does not make as much money as quickly. This is one drawback of letting the market take care of things.
Like High Demand near 100% refinery ultilization together with just-in-time supply.
Like dealing with constantly evolving blending and quality requirements coupled with aging equiptment where personel experience and expertise are sometimes in short supply.
Like an ever increasing complex addition of refining steps and processes need to deal with steadily deteriorating crude quality in varying quantities from diverse sometimes intermittent sources.
Or all of this at once.
We could easily go through the same exercise with the crude supply side. So relatively, oil pumped more easily and was simpler to refine previously compared to the downslope of Hubbert's peak. As the number of moving parts increases total co-ordination is nearly unachievable. It's just possible that we are witnessing that the whole big fantastic machine is simply reaching the limits of it's own complex nature.
Title of new book:
"Peak Oil: Forced Global Simplification"
excellent
There is the Mom and Pop stations verses the Exxon's around here. The Mom and Pop have their highest Octane at (US)$2.98 and the Exxon has it at $3.22. Just goes to show you where the extra change is going, to the Exxon profit base.
When the mom and pop stations get over 4 bucks then I'll start to worry, but then again I have other things I can worry about if I have to go out and worry about things, I don't need the stomach upset, I try not to worry about anything.
But there is a lot of waste in the system, a lot of people can cut back a lot more than they are and then the demand will shrink to the bare bones. That has not happened yet, there is lots of slack in the ropes right now and after the summer when the belts have to be tightened then we will have to look at things again.
It's May! We're 2 years post C+C peak (assuming the stats aren't updated in the next few months).
We should have a party or something.
BYO light, sweet crude!! (Ignition sources will be provided)
Nice Vintage!
Matt Simmons on the Schlumberger Web site: Aging Rig Fleet, Slowdown in Drilling Sharpen Oil Peak.
http://carolynelefant1.typepad.com/renewablesoffshore/2007/04/ocean_ener... />Simmonds Ocean Energy Institute Proposed in Maine
Offshore Drilling Expansion Announced
WASHINGTON — The Interior Department announced a major expansion of offshore oil and gas development Monday with proposed lease sales covering 48 million new acres off Alaska, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and in the central Atlantic off Virginia.
There was a discussion of the Washpost article here
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2007/04/30/DI200...
This early question was striking
but also there was this:
So, according to the Taxpayer and Consumer rights group, the oil companies are purposely creating a shortage. Good. I'm glad someone is taking the bull by the horns and doing what we should be doing as part of public policy.
Raise the gas tax and do it on a percentage, not a fixed basis. Consequently, at least, the revenues from same will rise in direct proportion to gas prices. Use the revenue from same to reduce income taxes for the middle and lower classes and/or use the revenue for conservation projects,transit, and some forms of alternative energy research.
Is there any hope in talking sense into these 'comsumer' groups ? Are any of you out there a member of
http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/
What exactly are 'consumer rights', which is what you lobby for ?
What exactly are 'consumer rights', which is what you lobby for ?
I have followed this group for a long time, and have written a number of essays demonstrating their cluelessness:
Essays on the FTCR
Basically, they are on the record saying that gasoline should be less than $2.00 a gallon for all Americans (a direct quote from them) and yet they also state that burning gasoline is harmful for the environment. Apparently, they can't seem to see the contradiction here. But, as I have pointed out before, they have no technical expertise on their staff. As someone wrote to me in an e-mail, the CVs of the staff indicate the following degrees:
Lawyer
Historian
Political Science
Sociology and Law
Cultural Anthropology and Rhetoric
Politics
Fine Arts
Philosopy and Communication Management
Journalism
Business and Marketing
Yet they think they know something about running an oil business - such that benefits to consumers, not to shareholders (nor the environment for that matter) are all that matters.
I have also noticed them deleting comments from their site from people who challenge their arguments. I had thought about registering there and challenging their logic until I saw them doing that.
I'm not familiar with this group. I personally associate with the group that publishes Consumer Reports. (consumersunion.org)
In anycase, don't take these people to be indicative of broader "consumer rights" movements.
I would personally like to know more about why new refineries are not going up in the US despite the much higher prices. I would also like to know why companies were not ratcheting up gasoline imports much earlier? Everyone knew refineries would be going offline to switch over to summer blends, and people already knew that gasoline demand was up from last year.
What went wrong in the predictions that caused the inventories to drop so much more than was expected? was it more refineries being down for longer periods than was expected? was it a supply issue with the foreign gasoline imports?
If it was a foreign supply issue, what is constraining our ability to import foreign gasoline? Are we looking at a global crunch on refinery capacity, not just a domestic one?
If anybody can help me with those questions, that would be awesome.
I would personally like to know more about why new refineries are not going up in the US despite the much higher prices.
A lot of refining capacity has been added:
Tyson Slocum is Wrong
The bigger problem is that oil companies have underestimated where prices would be. I know this for a fact, because I have seen some of the economics of various projects. They were forecasting $35 oil when it was actually $60. So what will cause you to underinvest. And when oil prices do come in much higher than forecast, it takes time to get capacity installed. Not helping matters is that everyone else is trying to do the same thing at the same time.
I would also like to know why companies were not ratcheting up gasoline imports much earlier?
It's not generally oil companies importing gasoline, it's exporters from Europe selling it into the U.S. market. We saw an unusual situation over the winter of high demand, and mild prices. Mild prices do not attract imports.
What went wrong in the predictions that caused the inventories to drop so much more than was expected? was it more refineries being down for longer periods than was expected? was it a supply issue with the foreign gasoline imports?
A little bit of those, and record demand. I detailed all of this issues in my blog posting from today.
Hope that helps. That's all from me today.
thanks for the extra info. For much of the last few weeks, all I've heard about why the prices are going up has been that inventory is going down. That just seems like it is question begging about why inventory is going down.
Your answers go a long way towards clearing that up.
So I guess the oil companies thought that prices would be low AND demand would be weak. Maybe some basic knowledge of economics does have some value.