DrumBeat: May 8, 2007

U.N.: Not so fast with ethanol, other biofuels

Biofuels like ethanol can help reduce global warming and create jobs for the rural poor, but the benefits may be offset by serious environmental problems and increased food prices for the hungry, the United Nations concluded Tuesday in its first major report on bioenergy.

...“Unless new policies are enacted to protect threatened lands, secure socially acceptable land use, and steer bioenergy development in a sustainable direction overall, the environmental and social damage could in some cases outweigh the benefits,” the report stated.

Want a green house? Prepare to be confused - Several groups battle over standards, certification as market expands

Want to go green? Take your thoughts off that gas-guzzling SUV for a moment and consider this: The average U.S. home causes twice as much greenhouse emissions as a single car.


Switch to organic crops could help poor

Organic food has long been considered a niche market, a luxury for wealthy consumers. But researchers told a U.N. conference Saturday that a large-scale shift to organic agriculture could help fight world hunger while improving the environment.


Expert says India will export around 1.5 million b/d of oil by 2010

Fereidun Fesharaki, a well-known expert on energy questions and CEO of FACTS Global Energy, recently told a conference in Dubai, that India would become an oil exporter of around 1.5 million barrels a day (b/d) by 2010, which could rise to 1.65 million b/d by 2012.


Massive project gets started in oil sands

Total SA took the first step yesterday toward building a multibillion-dollar bitumen upgrader near Edmonton, a construction project that will require 4,000 workers - about what it took to build the iconic Hoover Dam.


Silence on geothermal deafening

Today, natural gas is burned to produce the hot steam that's needed to extract bitumen from the tar sands. Alberta's world-famous sands are already the fastest-growing source of greenhouse gases in the country, and on the current growth path, emissions are expected to jump more than four-fold over the next 10 years.

Replacing much of this natural gas with clean, emission-free heat under the Earth's crust, a completely feasible option according to a recent research report out of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, would go an enormous way toward achieving a halt, and eventually a decline, in Canada's carbon emissions.


A Pending Bust for Ethanol?

With some analysts warning of an oversupply of the corn-based fuel later this year, concern is growing among farmers and investors.


The Cost Of Coal On The Environment

A worldwide rush to use “cheap” and dirty coal to supply power is threatening to impose huge costs to the environment and the global economy.


Binge-flying culture is just beginning. The only way to stop it is a severe tax

Almost all of us are hypocrites on climate change. We will not quit our aviation habit until it really hurts our pockets.


Pushing the planet to its limit

North Americans may use a disproportionate amount of the world's resources, but if we push the planet beyond its sustainable limits, we will all go down together, just the way the first-class cabins on the Titanic went to a watery grave just as quickly as the steerage cabins.


Citigroup commits $50B to green initiatives

Citigroup said Tuesday that it plans to commit $50 billion to environmental projects over the next decade, the largest commitment from Wall Street to address climate change.


Ecosystems are capital assets argues report

"We must urgently expand the climate debate beyond reducing greenhouse gases to focus on how climate change is altering ecosystem services," said Jonathan Lash, president of the World Resources Institute. "Lima in Peru, for example, is entirely dependent on water from glacial melt. The glaciers will be gone in 20 years. Their options range from energy intensive desalination to a pipeline to the Amazon River - also threatened by climate change. Such decisions have huge implications for people and ecosystems."


GAO's John Stephenson discusses effects of severe weather on private, federal insurers (video and transcript)

With weather-related events costing the nation billions of dollars in damages over the past decade, private insurers have reacted to this increased liability by adjusting policies for many storm-prone areas in the United States. But according to a recent report by the Government Accountability Office, federal insurers have not adjusted their practices based on this increased risk.


For Energy Wasters, the Heat Is On

A British company called Hotmapping has been doing thermal surveys of local districts using spy planes. The results are being posted on the web by district councils, with the upshot being that you can now see which houses are leaking heat. Blue houses are cool; red houses are taking their energy dollars (or pounds, in this case), and spewing them into the atmosphere.


Arctic Ice Melts Create New Land Rush

Recent news reports state that global warming and the shrinking Arctic icecaps are opening new sea lanes and making barren islands suddenly very valuable. In fact, the international community might experience a new race of exploration, conquest and acquisition for this "new world" -- these newly available lands and sea routes. Conflicts could arise over shipping lanes, islands, fish stocks, minerals and oil that are now becoming accessible and commercially exploitable.


Grand strategy for the Middle East

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has returned from a five-country tour of the Middle East. Ostensibly, Mr. Abe was focusing on energy security but his visits encompassed much more than that. Mr. Abe was raising Japan's diplomatic profile in a region that is vital to its national security — and that of the entire world. Implicit in his conversations was the message that Japan seeks a higher diplomatic profile and is ready to play a larger role in that region's turbulent politics.


Fire at Kuwait's Burgan Oil Field Under Control

Kuwait Oil Co., the state oil producer, has brought under control a fire that broke out at the country's giant Burgan oil field, state news agency Kuna reported Monday.


Walking a Slick Tightrope

Between them, Venezuela and Nigeria export about 4.5 million barrels of oil daily. This says nothing about the 2.4 million barrels each day coming out of obstreperous Iran, or the 1.5 million barrels being shipped from war-torn Iraq. It doesn't even address the 7.2 million barrels a day being exported by OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia, whose royal family isn't immune to geopolitical or religious treachery.

So, Fools, watch these unstable situations carefully. And as I've advised you repeatedly, please don't operate without energy representation in your portfolios.


Spain balks at corrupt urbanization

Thousands protested urban development this weekend as concern over corruption and environmental degredation rises.


Scientists look high in the sky for power

Scientists are eyeing the jet stream, an energy source that rages night and day, 365 days a year, just a few miles above our heads. If they can tap into its fierce winds, the world's entire electrical needs could be met, they say.


Saudis reject supply fears but won't increase output

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers have assured Asian countries their oil supply is secure at a recent meeting in Riyadh. But Middle East oil ministers attending warned they would not increase output to ease high prices.


Nigerian Protesters Force Chevron Facility Closure

Protesters armed with machetes occupied a Chevron Corp. (CVX) oil installation in southern Nigeria Monday, forcing the facility to be temporarily shut down and causing a small cut in production, officials said.


America's 'Energy Policy': It's Still All About Oil

And then there's America's energy policy, and it's generous to use the word "policy" in describing it. The transition of our nation from a manufacturing to a service economy may be nearly complete, but it's certainly not reflecting in our continued demand for oil, which is greater than ever.


Saudi govt plans spending checks to curb inflation

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, said it plans to control government spending in a bid to limit inflation that rose to at least an 11-year high in 2006, spurred by rising food prices and rents.


Nigeria: Fuel Scarcity Hits North

Scarcity of petrol has hit northern parts of the country, as speculation emerged of an impending fuel price hike by the authorities.


Dhaka to import diesel from Assam refinery

Bangladesh has decided to import diesel from the Numaligarh Refinery in Assam following acute shortage of fuel, officials said Tuesday.


Gazprom Urged to Revise General Plan

RAO UES first drew attention to the energy shortage past fall and forecasted it to increase. Gazprom fired off by denying the lack of gas in Russia’s power engineering and accused RAO UES of inability to match the consumption of gas and black oil.


Power to the people!

There is one more power generation alternative that deserves our attention. A coal-fired system is low tech and easy to maintain-easy, fast and cheap to build, and produces inexpensive electricity. There are plentiful and cheap supplies of coal fairly close to us in Papua New Guinea and huge, cheap supplies in China. We could buy a cargo ship and deliver our own supply as well as help our island neighbors build coal-fired plants. By delivering coal to them too, we would reduce our own cost even further by selling some to them. Since we live on a small island with constantly blowing trade winds we need not worry about air pollution. Perhaps the single greatest advantage to coal power after it's cheap cost is that it can be built quickly and could be up and running before the other alternatives were even out of their planning stage. We should look very seriously at this alternative.


Fire at Whiting's BP plant fuels gas hikes

When drivers across the nation agonized over a record $3.07 average per gallon at the pump this weekend, it was partly because of a March fire at BP's Whiting plant.


Sen. Kerry Seeks to Block Bristol Bay Leasing Plan

Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) introduced legislation Friday to block Interior Department plans to sell oil and gas leases in Alaska's Bristol Bay, joining several House lawmakers trying to thwart the plan.


Turn Eco Responsibility Into Economic Opportunity

Builders hear the term "green building" constantly. Integrators, meanwhile, don't hear a lot about "green integrating." Maybe they should.


Printing Solar Cells as Fast as Your Sunday Paper

In 1997, Clayton Christenson coined the phrase “disruptive technology” to describe a phenomenon that has occurred throughout human existence.

The term describes how, every once in a while, an innovation comes along that uproots and replaces an existing technology.

For instance, muskets replaced longbows, changing the face of warfare forever. And certainly cars replaced horses as the primary means of transportation.

Well, today we’re seeing a similar situation with alternative energy.


Nigerian oil bombings cut output

Nigerian rebels blew up three oil pipelines in the Niger Delta on Tuesday, forcing Italian oil giant Eni to halt production of 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) feeding its Brass export terminal, a source at Eni said.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), which has now shut down more than 30 percent of Nigerian oil output, said in an e-mail it bombed the pipelines to embarrass President Olusegun Obasanjo in his last days in office.

The MEND vowed to carry out more attacks in the world's eight-largest crude exporter, where about 700,000 bpd, or a quarter of total capacity, were already being lost before the latest attacks.

"If those two pipelines have been blown up then there is zero production. They are the only two pipelines that carry all our production," said an Eni source, asking not to be named.


Saudis pare crude prices to the west

Saudi Arabia has cut the price of all its June-loading crude oil to Europe and the United States, while raising all prices to Asia, traders said yesterday.


Fuel Prices Increase in Nicaragua

The director of the Nicaraguan Energy Institute (INE), David Castillo, declared that the institution he heads cannot stop the escalation of fuel prices, which are subject to market laws.


Costa Rica: Central Valley Residents, Businesses to Pay An Average 4% More for Electricity

ARESEP recently rejected a request from the Costa Rican Electricity Institute (ICE) of an average 23% rate increase in electricity rates. This rejection came in the midst of a national energy crisis that forced the country to deal with scheduled power outages


Uganda: Museveni orders probe on fake diesel

“We have received reports that petrol stations are mixing diesel with paraffin. “The President is concerned. He directed us to investigate the matter and report back to him,” Deusdedit Mubangizi, the UNBS quality assurance chief, said.

He attributed the practice to the scarcity of diesel which recently pushed pump prices to more than 2,000 a litre in the city and up to sh3,000 a litre in upcountry areas.


NPP is insensitive to Ghanaians plight

The United Kingdom & Ireland Secretariat of the Convention People’s Party has lambasted the ruling government over the recent increases in the prices of petroleum products.


New plan to avert future energy crisis in Ontario

A 'real world' plan designed to help Ontarians make the right decisions concerning the future of electricity will be unveiled today at a speech to the Economic Club of Toronto. Developed by the Society of Energy Professionals, representing more than 7,000 engineers, scientists, supervisors and IT professionals working in almost every facet of the energy industry, the plan "Getting it Right - A Real World Vision of Ontario's Electricity System in 2025" was a year in the making and developed by a team of scientists, engineers and IT experts who know the electricity system inside and out.


Movin’ Out

An Australian dedicated to American values, Andrew Liveris, the CEO of Dow Chemical, has been shifting plants overseas as U.S. natural gas prices make domestic manufacturing uncompetitive.


Eyes Eternally On The Prize

The struggle over Iraqi oil has been going on for a long, long time. One could date it back to 1980 when President Jimmy Carter—before his Habitat for Humanity days—declared that Persian Gulf oil was "vital" to American national interests. So vital was it, he announced, that the U.S. would use "any means necessary, including military force" to sustain access to it. Soon afterwards, he announced the creation of a Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force, a new military command structure that would eventually develop into United States Central Command (Centcom) and give future presidents the ability to intervene relatively quickly and massively in the region.


Hard to Deny: Iraq Is All About the Oil

How the U.S. is working to secure Iraq's oil -- one of the most important sources of petrochemical energy on the planet -- and how the Iraqis are resisting.


Experts plan greenest town around

Bill Hammond, Rick Joyce, Carol Newcomb-Jones, Larry Peterson and Greg Rawl are advising Kitson about wildlife corridors, green-space restoration, energy efficiency, alternative means of transportation and water quality.

"I don't know of any other developer that's doing this — creating an internal (environmental) team," Hammond said.


Right Now - Kunstler

Now, I happen to think that oil production probably peaked about a year ago, but we are still so close to it that the net available energy remains immense. Even if 2007 averages out to 83.5 million barrels a day instead of 84 million, it will still seem like a lot. Markets may be dumber than we think. All they see is a vast amount of cheap energy for manufacturing plastic salad shooters, for powering tourist jet charters to Cancun, for running WalMart, Walt Disney World, and Taco Bell. All that energy is here right now.

Among the many tragic elements in the human condition is this tendency toward short-term thinking, the inability to imagine how our arrangements will work in a time that is not right now.


Members tackle EU's energy goal

Reasons cited for the push for renewable energy and wind power included Saudi Arabia having passed its peak oil production in 2005, climate change and growing population, said Michael Mueller, parliamentary state secretary of the Ministry for Environment, Conservation and Nuclear Safety in Germany. Europe has also nearly reached the peak of its hydroelectric capacity.


Gas prices may have hit peak for now

This could be the peak or near it because:

● Refinery problems that caused a backlog of oil waiting to be turned into gasoline, a disruption widely blamed for price increases, are being fixed. More gasoline will flow soon, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman says.

● History, though short, says $3 doesn't last. In 2005, the first time that barrier was crossed, it dropped below $3 the next week. In 2006, the average was $3 or more for four consecutive weeks, peaking at $3.038 Aug. 7, Energy Information Administration data show.


Putrid Economics at a Terrible Price

"Reporting from the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Byron tells us that countries with nationalized oil programs like Canada, Norway and Brazil have made technological and financial leaps that bring them toe-to-toe with the world’s Big Oil giants."


Biodiesel fuels enthusiasts vowing a 'revolution'

More than 1,300 people -- some shouting "revolution" -- took over Fisher Pavilion at the Seattle Center on Sunday. Look what's happening out in the streets, they said: Biodiesel is coming of age. It's all the rage.


Early Beijing summer indicates climate change

Beijing is experiencing its earliest summer in more than 30 years, state media reported on Tuesday, in the latest climatic sign that China is bearing the hallmarks of global warming.


Those Mysterious Oil Reservoirs: Should we trust the opinions of amateur oil industry watchers?

Q: A recent series of posts at www.theoildrum.com attempt to divine the current status and future prospects of Saudi Arabia's Ghawar field, the world's largest. Your thoughts?

A: I am amazed at the energy and diligence which the authors exhibit in carrying out their analyses. It is tragic that the Saudis won't release more detailed performance data and their own analyses which would show the situation more clearly. It seems likely to me that the conclusion that Ghawar is in decline is correct. But it's a big step to conclude that its decline will be steep. Oil companies employ reservoir engineers and reservoir geologists to deal with just the situation we have here: "a mature field is showing signs of declining production with its current development, what can we profitably do that might change this situation?"


Negligence blamed in gas pipeline blast

Negligence was to blame for the explosion of a natural gas pipeline that supplies Russian gas to Europe, Ukraine's top prosecutor said Tuesday.

...Prosecutor General Svyatoslav Piskun said that shifting soil led to a break in the pipeline. He said officials should have been able to spot the natural changes occurring and taken action to build up the soil around the pipeline.


Iraq's oil production falls short of goals

Here's a bit of good news about Iraq and oil: The Al Basrah Oil Terminal finally can work at full speed. This giant H-shaped tanker loading platform, located in the Persian Gulf off Iraq's southeastern coast, is one of the country's most important pieces of economic infrastructure. Thanks to US-funded reconstruction, all four of its berths now are in operation for the first time in many years.

Now the bad news: There's not much else good about Iraqi oil to report. Despite years of rebuilding, petroleum production continues to fall short of targets, due to insurgency vandalism, poor field management, and corruption. Proposed Iraqi legislation on oil revenue distribution – a measure deemed crucial by the White House – remains the subject of bitter sectarian debate.


Investigative journalist reports peak oil by 2020

Experts predict that oil production is about to peak, plateau and then fall, creating a demand that will be greater than supply that will result in oil shocks and economic consequences that will affect all.


Peak Oil or Dependence on Russian Gas – Which is more important for Turkish Public?

Peak oil is a hot subject, but hardly any Turkish energy discussion involves it. It is more about market, sales, new investments, doomed scenarios regarding the energy dependency to regional countries. But in America, peak oil is much more debated than Turkey.


Fiddling with figures while the Earth burns

If you want to get some idea of what much of the Earth might look like in 50 years’ time then, says James Lovelock, get hold of a powerful telescope or log onto Nasa’s Mars website. That arid, empty, lifeless landscape is, he believes, how most of Earth’s equatorial lands will be looking by 2050. A few decades later and that same uninhabitable desert will have extended into Spain, Italy, Australia and much of the southern United States.

“We are on the edge of the greatest die-off humanity has ever seen,” said Lovelock. “We will be lucky if 20% of us survive what is coming. We should be scared stiff.”

Grassley demands answers on ethanol from oil execs

In four similar letters to the chief executives of ExxonMobil, British Petroleum, Chevron and Conoco Phillips, Grassley says an April 2 Wall Street Journal article revealed ethanol policies that gainsay the protocols the companies discussed under oath in a March 14, 2006 Senate Judiciary Committee hearing.

The problem will solve itself.
But not in a nice way.

Naimi contended 70% of the world's future oil demand growth would come from Asia. Kuwaiti oil minister Sheikh Ali al-Jarrah al-Sabah also said there was no need for OPEC to consider boosting oil supplies, though the group would not hesitate to raise output when necessary. Butter said certain conditions would have to apply before this occurred, including "clear signs of demand starting to outstrip supply and prices spiking at over US $70 per barrel."

Who just said $70 a barrel ?????

And who predicted the Saudi's would raise the bar to $70 ?

Now its time for Stuart to win his bet too bad we don't have any takers. For all you people that don't believe KSA is in decline explain how I could use the evidence presented on this board to predict that KSA would raise the bar and it comes to pass. And yet we are wrong ?

KSA is in decline live with it.

Please don't reply to a post just to get higher up in the thread. It's confusing.

Hello TODsters,

I have been spending some (OK, way too much) time fiddling with Google Earth and Maps views of Saudi Oilfields and Ghawar in particular. Coming up with the geographic coordinates for the Ghawar field has been a bit of a challenge, although I suppose USGS or somebody else would probably sell me the data. Most recently, I have used existing maps such as those by Croft and used scaled versions as overlays, eventually constructing a polygon overlay which defines the boundaries and can be loaded into both Google Earth and Google Maps:

http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=886624&page=0&vc=#P...

(FOr some reason, Google Maps on IE7 comes up half screen)

Fine tuning of the orientation and scaling was done by zooming in and identifying the perimeter wellheads and supporting roads. Interestingly, although the geological structures are over a mile down, there is a recent paper which discusses corresponding surface features:

Surface expressions of the Ghawar structure, Saudi Arabia
Marine and Petroleum Geology 22 (2005) 657–670

Using either GEarth of GMaps, you can play around with this by turning the overlay on and off.

Beyond this, it is interesting to look around and see the various structures. Overall, the resolution is quite good. In contrast, I tried looking for Greensburg, Kansas yesterday (to get a "before tornado" shot", but the resolution was horrible. Oil beats wheat, I guess.

Here is what I believe is one of many GOSPs (Gas Oil Separation Plants). This one is in Uthmaniyah:

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=25.006205+49.155491&ie=UTF8&ll=25.004631,4...

Either that, or it's a magnification of an integrated circuit chip. Note the fence around the perimeter, the black smoke smearing everything, and the amazing pipeline layouts. One pipe heading to the SW looks like it carries gas for flaring. Can someone tell me what the reason is for the 90-degree kinks in the pipelines?

I will be updating this over time, as there is a lot that can be done with GEarth in particular. Suggestions are appreciated, and if anyone has an authorative shapefile or something for the boundaries, that would be great too.

I'm not in the oil biz, but I do know you can't run materials that expand and contract in straight lines. You have to put bends in them or they'll crack.

I wondered if someone else would get there before I had the time to complete my work. I'll try and parcel up where I've got to over the next few days so that others can use it. As a rough estimate, I've got the outline positioned to ~100 metre accuracy.

I have refined and reposted my Ghawar boundary overlay using a figure from the reference I cited in my original post above. Here is a screenshot of the overlay in GE:

I assume the authors of that paper had access to GIS data (they are from King Faud U.), although I look forward to your work as I am not close to 100m resolution with my tweaking.

Those are probably pipes on pipe racks, and it's cheaper to use elbows rather than curve the pipe.

I'm also not sure if that's smoke in the picture or oily water runoff.

amazing work joules, and i suppose those are flowlines entering from the east (assuming they do not bury the flowlines, ala texas). some of the vessels may be painted black. anyone?

They seem to be buried as they pass under the fence. There are also some that come in from the south.

Observation: the water has to go somewhere, presumably to wells on the perimeter for reinjection. Must be an interesting plumbing/replumbing job. Bring the big adjustable wrench.

joules, "some flowlines (that) come in from the south. doesnt it appear that they are fewer and larger diameter ? but maybe it is just a distortion.

What are all those circular things just south of the oil field?

I think they are irrigated crop circles, bizarre as that may sound in the middle of the desert

Note the fence around the perimeter, the black smoke smearing everything

That is not black smoke, that is oil leakage. Notice is flows below the facility and eventually seeps into the sand. I have seen this personally. The stuff quickly turns to paraffin as the heat of the sun causes all the lights to evoperate.

Can someone tell me what the reason is for the 90-degree kinks in the pipelines?

You will always see this in all pipelines except in places where there enough natural bends to take care of expansion and contraction. Here is a perfect example:
http://www.alaskastock.com/preview.asp?image=210DR%20AB0013%20001&imagex...

And here:
http://www.alaskastock.com/preview.asp?image=210DR%20AA0004D001&imagex=2...

And see thumbnails of many more photos of the Alaskan pipeline here:
http://www.alaskastock.com/resultsframe.asp?gs=1&txtkeys1=Pipeline

Ron Patterson

tar sands of the future.

I love it. The lead to the Randy Udall article asks should we trust the amateur oil watchers. Well, I can tell him that if we're wrong, we're honestly wrong. There seems to be some muddle as to honesty, truth, and reality. It is quite possible to be honest and wrong, or dishonest and right. And reality will have its say regardless.

While opinions may be all over the map on this site, I don't recall ever being confronted with any dishonesty or anything posted with less than honorable intentions. That a site like this is so well attended does not speak well for the industry and its directly or indirectly paid shills. We shouldn't have to be here doing this.

Many oil professionals have vested interests. Upbeat, positive, overly-optimistic numbers for reserves give them borrowing power and access to money.

So I'd say it's probably the professionals that can't be trusted here. Kind of like asking an Enron executive if his company is sound.

I did inhale.

I spent an hour yesterday reading your site and at the end I couldnt' remember how I got there (I must put that down I guess) he he.

Anyway, just wanted to say I enjoyed your chapters on addiction. It's amazing how similar everyone sounds about addiction. I have a family member that is taking it one day at a time. We would find much in common while finding small differences that we could discuss over some tea. I'm working on my last two days of my degree (finals) so I haven't had time to read your thoughts on the law, but I can not imagine it's eye opening. If you get a chance, I've got a blog I am planning on turning into something once school wraps up. I've got a few posts that starts talking about why I created it. Look forward to hearing from you in the future!

unrepentantcowperson, we passed the Equal Rights Amendment in 1974 in Texas, please use politicially correct language in your handle !
A very large percent of the contributors to this site and the readers are in fact professionals in the energy business, and trying to put us in the same category with the analists at CERA is ridiculous. Read some of the back stories by Robert Rapier (a refining engineer), WestTexas (a Geologist), or Dave Cohen (an energy writer) before you make any more sweeping generalisations impughning people's honesty. You're pretty new here at TOD, but that kind of aspersion on people's trustworthyness based on your own predjudices is unnecessary and as a petroleum landman I resent it. 'nuff said.

What the tarnashion is thet there thing, the petroleum landman?

Hey, and if you all are really a professional, why ain't you and them hangin out at CERA instead of with all us unrepentant cowboys, crazies, doomers, and werst of aul hippie degenerates? (You know of course aul this P.O. stuff is a mere plot by the acid warped in revenge for just about anything you care to think about and many yer dont).

I really resent you calling yourself that thing petroleum landman an aspersing land, impugning its good mothering nature by associating it with, ugh! petroleum

BTW, I do believe that the unrepentant one was referring to professionals at CERA and not you good guys masquerading as amateurs.

Of course there will be plenty of exceptions, but I get the impression he was referring to the fact that there are a lot of people who have trouble being honest with themselves and/or others when it comes to things that affect their livelihood/belief systems.

"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein

Leggett writes the following:

"But it's a big step to conclude that its decline will be steep."

If he is as superior as a professional analyst as he seems to be claiming, then he ought to go to the trouble of minutely dissecting the "amateurish" reasoning offered on TOD which leads to the conclusion of a "steep decline." Simply calling this reasoning a "big step" in the absence of such minute dissection strikes me as rather amateurish in and of itself.

I'm wondering, considering MRC wells and waterflood, what sort of decline he's envisioning : (

If he is as superior as a professional analyst as he seems to be claiming, then he ought to go to the trouble of minutely dissecting

Why?

There is nothing he "ought" to do for you, any more than you "ought" to wash my car and cut my lawn. You want to control his time, hire him.

Yes Pitt, that is why we distrust his analysis, that control thing is not about time it is about message.

that is why we distrust his analysis, that control thing is not about time it is about message.

You don't trust someone whose message you don't control? Remarkably paranoid and circular of you.

He's retired - he can say whatever the hell he wants. If he says he doesn't agree with you, the most likely reason is that he honestly doesn't.

Although paranoid fantasies about how "The Man" is holding down "the truth" are much more exciting than rational analysis, I will admit.

The point is that his arrogant posturing as superior to the "amateurs" on TOD in virtue of his professional status has no sound basis in anything he said, absent such an analysis. Based on what is a matter of public record at this juncture, the "amateurs" here on this site appear to have vastly out-achieved Gilbert's own "professionalism."

Of course he is under no obligation to make his "professional" expertise available free of charge, but he certainly opens himself up to attack on the grounds of vacuous arrogance if he casually dismisses the intricate analysis that "amateurs" have conducted on this site in the absence of actually DEMONSTRATING the superiority of his "professional" status.

In short, he would have done better to keep his mouth shut about the whole "amateur" vs. "professional" angle on the matter.

The point is that his arrogant posturing as superior to the "amateurs" on TOD in virtue of his professional status has no sound basis in anything he said, absent such an analysis.

I didn't notice any arrogance - perhaps you're being a bit touchy. Moreover, virtually everyone here is an amateur at oilfield analysis, and he is (or was) a professional in this field.

Would you complain this much if a brain surgeon off-handedly referred to a group talking about brain surgery on the internet as "amateurs"? He didn't seem to be using the word in a pejorative sense, so I don't see what you're getting so bent out of shape about.

Some here, Eaun for example, are professionals.

Eaun is an expert on the North Sea and the structures there. However, such experience and expertise is still of value in the Persian Gulf and KSA.

Best Hopes for Truth :-)

Alan

Agreed and well said Petrosaurus. There is massive dishonesty off this site - in governments, in the MSM, in the oil companies, in CERA and others.

Vote accordingly - eject governments. Do not buy from Big Oil. Write to the press rejecting the CERA BS. If everybody who attends this site did these few things it might make a small diffference.

CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) Must Die
By Brad Kozak
May 7, 2007 1,468 Views

Current Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards dictate that U.S. automobile manufacturers must produce vehicles whose overall average achieves 27.5 mpg (for cars) and/or 22.2 mpg (for trucks). The regulation’s stated goal: “encourage” manufacturers to build more fuel-efficient vehicles and, therefore, somehow, eventually, “lead” American consumers into buying same. Yeah right.

Generally speaking, people don’t buy what’s good for them. Whether its cigarettes or SUV’s, people buy the products they want and then rationalize their purchases afterwards (if they can be bothered). CAFE’s underlying principle– forcing manufacturers to build products people don’t want– is a very special kind of lunacy, normally reserved for “planned economies.” And it’s about as effective as it sounds.

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=3655

Unfortunately, it is the only tool that the politicians are willing to use. This way, we can pretend that no one actually has to make any sacrifices to reach our goals. The CAFE standards are also a sham, of course, because they are seriously distorted by the FF loophole.

The auto makers, however, could meet these standards in a heartbeat if we took the necessary steps to alter demand with high gas taxes, rebates for fuel efficient cars, and penalties for vehicles that were not fuel efficient.

CAFE should just be a goal; the responsibility for meeting that goal should rest with congress and the American people.

We could also start by making gas guzzlers tax applicable to light trucks and SUVs as well as cars.

yeah, talk about an empty gesture. There will be no market for cars getting only 35 mpg in 2019. Maybe some sort 've speciality item like a Lamborghini for the super rich but nothing mass produced. Talk about being behind the curve.

Matt