DrumBeat: May 12, 2007

Higher gas prices leave many workers running on empty

Sixty percent of employees confirmed that the price of gas has significantly reduced the amount of money they have to spend on other things, while 45 percent reported the need to pay off debts more slowly or not at all. Finally, 26 percent indicated that the cost of gas has necessitated going without basics such as heat or air conditioning, or even cutting back on food purchases, over the past few months.

Further, Hochwarter found that those most affected by gas prices were prone to experience stress both on and off the job. Specifically, negative views of work and the company, sluggishness, antagonistic behavior, feeling overwhelmed and sadness were significantly higher for those indicating gas-price-related effects on spending behavior.

Surge in carbon levels shows vegetation struggling to cope

Climate change may have passed a key tipping point that could mean temperatures rising more quickly than predicted and it being harder to tackle global warming, research suggests.

Bristol University researchers say a previously unexplained surge of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere in recent years is due to more greenhouse gas escaping from trees, plants and soils. Global warming was making vegetation less able to absorb the carbon pollution pumped out by human activity.


Study Sheds Light on Earth's CO2 Cycles, Possible Impacts of Climate Change

A research team, including Kent State Professor of Geology Dr. Joseph Ortiz, tracing the origin of the large carbon dioxide increase in Earth's atmosphere at the end of the last ice age has detected two ancient "burps" that originated from the deepest parts of the southern ocean around Antarctica.


The coal rush

We stand at the beginning of a worldwide "coal rush" led by China, India and the United States, which plan to install 850 new coal plants by 2020, 150 of them in the United States. The CO2 from these plants could easily push the planet past a global warming "tipping point" that would initiate irreversible melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. According to global warming expert James Hansen, NASA’s chief climatologist, this would raise sea levels by 80 feet over about the next couple of centuries and "produce a new planet."


Climate change could lead to global conflict

Climate change could spawn a new era of conflicts around the world over water and other scarce resources unless more is done to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the foreign secretary, Margaret Beckett, warned yesterday.


Total: Able to Meet Republic of Congo Oil Supply Contracts

When asked about market speculation that full production would resume within three weeks, the spokeswoman was skeptical.

"We don't yet know what caused the accident so we would prefer to take all the security measures necessary before giving an indication on when production can resume," she said.


When the Gas is Gone, We'll be Rich!

Last week was just full of unpleasant surprises for natural gas supply.

I’ve been researching the issues and it looks like we have some serious supply issues on our hands, starting now and growing worse over the next 20 years or more.


America Has Oil on the Brain

Lisa Margonelli traveled thousands of miles from her local gas station to oil fields half a world away to try and understand how Americans can buy 10,000 gallons a second without giving it much thought.


Dealer prices gas over $4 in protest - He says tactics used by Shell are unfair to operators

For franchise dealers like Oyster, it is the ultimate irony. At a time when the oil companies are posting record profits, the little guys are struggling to stay in business. And many, like Oyster, are giving up the fight.


Ethanol seen chomping into corn crops

The surging fuel ethanol industry will gobble up 27 percent of this year's U.S. corn crop, challenging U.S. farmers' ability to satisfy food, feed and fuel demand, the U.S. government said Friday.

Even with its projection of a record 12.46 billion-bushel corn crop this year, the Agriculture Department said U.S. stockpiles will run low going into the next crop year when voracious ethanol demand will rise again.

"We keep our head just above water [this year]. We've got to swim that much harder in 2008," said analyst Mark McMinimy of Stanford Washington Research.


Big trucks rule the road

Keena Lewis, a guidance counselor in Lafourche Parish, said she's been driving large frame SUVs since her days in college. Lewis drives a 2000 model Ford Explorer and plans to upgrade to a Ford Expedition in the coming years, she said.

"People wouldn't expect a girl to be driving an SUV like this," Lewis said. "When I drive my SUV, it makes me feel powerful, sexy and in control."


Stealing copper leaves big headaches

The side yard of the Dartmouth apartment building that Dorothy MacAlduff owns and lives in is marred by a deep, rocky pit that still reeks with the stench of heating fuel.

The hole mirrors three other pits on Pinecrest Drive properties neighbouring Ms. MacAlduff’s, where cleanup crews were excavating polluted soil and draining deep ponds of oil-saturated groundwater Friday after thieves cut fuel lines to several residential oil tanks.

The lines were cut Wednesday and Thursday for the copper wiring they contained and at least two tanks worth of oil ended up spilling into the ground.


Saudis: Foiled plot mirrored 9/11 attack

Al-Qaida-linked plotters hoped to reproduce the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, planning to send suicide pilots to military bases and attack the oil refineries that drive the economy of Osama bin Laden ‘s homeland, the government said Saturday.


India: Power cut in Bijoygarh for 14 hrs, locals protest

MORE than 450 people came out on the streets and blocked Bijoygarh Road for over four hours today to protest the daily power crisis in the area. Fed up with the daily outage and low voltage, residents of ward 95 today resorted to a road block from 7.30 am to 12 pm.


Pakistan: Abdullah Haroon Rd shopkeepers burn KESC vehicle, tear gassed

Angry shopkeepers in Saddar set fire to a KESC vehicle, after yet another long power outage in the area, Thursday.

According to the shopkeepers on Abdullah Haroon road, many of the markets had been without electricity all morning, following which at about 2 p.m. most of them decided to close their shops and take to the streets.


Canada: Pump Shock in pictures

NDP MPP Gilles Bisson today invited motorists to fight back against gas-price gouging by taking part in "Pump Shock in pictures" - an NDP campaign that lets everyday Ontarians blow the whistle on Ontario's worst gas-price rip-off artists.


End of the road for Ford?

FORD Australia is reviewing its multimillion-dollar outlay on V8 supercars racing in light of shifting consumer tastes and the company's difficult economic situation.


On the road? - As gas prices rise, many rethink vacation plans

As summer approaches, many families will be making plans to pack their bags and drive to their favorite destinations.

Some of these trips will be forfeited, however, because of high gas prices.


Australia: Families' weekly bill up $175

SOARING costs in groceries, housing, fuel, power and childcare have put a staggering strain on household budgets.

Already battling sky-rocketing mortgages or rent, ordinary Queenslanders will be hit by huge hikes in food prices, big increases in electricity charges and rises in the cost of petrol over the next few months.


Australia: Bowser thefts linked to stolen rego plates

THE huge surge in "drive-off" fuel theft, triggered by skyrocketing petrol prices, is being linked to the underground trade in stolen registration plates in Sydney, which has risen at the same rate as bowser larcenies.

NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research figures show petrol thefts, or service station fraud, has increased by 33 per cent since mid-2004, from 9163 incidents to more than 12,900.

In the same period, the number of number plate thefts rose by a third.


Uranium exploration firms flock to Niger desert

Niger has granted a wave of permits to British, Canadian and Indian mining firms allowing them to explore for uranium in its desert north, the West African country's government said on Saturday.


Monetary Reform and How a National Monetary System Should Work

If this bubbles bursts, much of the middle class wealth that remained after the 1987 stock market crash, the 2000-2002 bursting of the dot.com bubble, and the ongoing decline of the housing market will be gone for good.

Maybe the party is finally over. Maybe at the end of their 300-year reign, starting roughly with the creation of the Bank of England in 1694, the financiers have finally succeeded in doing enough damage to the world economy that the rest of us are willing to take action. Or maybe there will be a sufficient distraction by more war in the Middle East and elsewhere. Maybe peak oil or global warming will intervene with destruction on too large a scale to ignore. Or maybe we’ll just limp along into the sunset.


Dow Chemical, Saudi Aramco Agree to Factories in Saudi Arabia

Dow Chemical Co. agreed to partner with Saudi Aramco, the largest state-owned oil company, to build a chemicals complex in Saudi Arabia that will use low-cost raw materials from adjacent oil and natural gas plants.


The high cost of doing business

"Our customers use a lot more electricity than the average customer in this country. We do a lot of work to explain that to our customers who are used to a much more temperate climate and, more likely than not, their electric bill will increase when they move to Southern Nevada ... because the volume of electricity they're using has changed. Our electricity prices are much lower than they are in Southern California but it takes a lot more to cool your home."


Oil-mageddon

The truth is that without oil, humanity - all six and a half billion of us - would be catapulted back into the steam age. And the results would not be pretty.

Now, a new book says that the age of oil is about to draw to a close and that the post-petroleum era is already upon us.


True Costs Of Fossil Fuels

Cheney revealed the goal of the war in a speech while still the CEO of Halliburton in 1999. To his own question of "Where is the oil going to come from to slake the world’s ever-growing thirst," Cheney answered, "The Middle East, with two-thirds of the world’s oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies." The "Cheney Energy Task Force" had all eyes firmly fixed on The Prize back at the beginning of 2001. Along with Ken Lay of Enron and a cadre of Oil Men, they knew the only way to start describing victory was "Iraqi Oil Secured"; a main reason the White House has appealed clear to Cheney’s duck hunting buddy on the Supreme Court to keep all aspects of the meeting secret.


Granville students park cars for a day

The day, dubbed Strive Not to Drive, was an effort to get students to use less gas and reduce carbon emissions to help solve the global warming problem and energy crisis.


Global warming, nuclear power: double trouble

The historical coincidence of global warming and a revived nuclear industry magnifies the hazard. For example, resource depletion in some countries because of global warming will jeopardize their nuclear plants' maintenance and health and safety programs. Climate change will also reduce water supplies, which are crucial to avert reactor meltdowns.


Chevron shuts down some Nigerian operations amid rampant violence

Chevron Corp. temporarily shut down some operations in Nigeria's offshore waters Friday as the second-largest U.S. oil company scrambled to protect its workers and equipment from rampant violence that threatens to drive up gasoline prices.

The San Ramon-based company's lockup in the Niger Delta came just a few days after gunmen seized four of its American subcontractors from an offshore vessel amid an outbreak of militant attacks that have disrupted Africa's biggest oil-producing country.


Russia, CAsia leaders agree landmark gas pipeline deal

TURKMENBASHI, Turkmenistan (AFP) - The presidents of Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan agreed a landmark gas pipeline deal on Saturday in a victory for Moscow over European and US plans for the region.


Alaska OKs natural gas pipeline bill

Both houses of the Alaska Legislature on Friday approved a bill establishing a path for a multibillion dollar natural gas project designed to tap a huge heating fuel supply and transport it to the rest of the country.


High octane price vapors

Head for the hills. Gas prices are over $3 -- just make sure you carpool.

That's the message network Chicken Littles are telling viewers as they hype so-called "record prices" and warn of an economic cataclysm tied to $4-, $5- or $6-a-gallon gasoline. Diane Sawyer even linked the prospect of pain at the pump to the idea of another stock market crash.


Ghana: Businesses spend $62m monthly on power plants

Businesses in the country are incurring costs of more than 62 million dollars a month on power plants for their operations.

The services sector including financial institutions spend over 4.4 million dollars, manufacturing industries 37.3 million dollars, mining 17.4 million dollars while the Agricultural sector is spending more than 2.9 million dollars each month on running their power plants.


Energy crisis lurks on Balkans

"The Balkan's countries need as much as 30.000 MWh that are impossible to provide, therefore the region will face a major energy crisis."


Carbon Call

Not realistic from a political standpoint, not realistic because the targets are incredibly expensive—that’s a Yale economist’s take on the multi-trillion dollar strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions unveiled April 4 by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Others find it hard to even imagine...the magnitude of changes, the speed needed to reach the report’s emission peak by 2015, then subsequent reduction of 50%, to level off at 85% of the emissions of 2000. This could cost up to 3% of the world’s gross domestic product. Such economic bloodletting will only happen when imposed by nature, and that could be gruesome.


Billions in Oil Missing in Iraq, U.S. Study Says

Between 100,000 and 300,000 barrels a day of Iraq’s declared oil production over the past four years is unaccounted for and could have been siphoned off through corruption or smuggling, according to a draft American government report.

Using an average of $50 a barrel, the report said the discrepancy was valued at $5 million to $15 million daily.

The report does not give a final conclusion on what happened to the missing fraction of the roughly two million barrels pumped by Iraq each day, but the findings are sure to reinforce longstanding suspicions that smugglers, insurgents and corrupt officials control significant parts of the country’s oil industry.

The report also covered alternative explanations for the billions of dollars worth of discrepancies, including the possibility that Iraq has been consistently overstating its oil production.

The remarkable rise in popularity of electric bicycles in China (as witnessed by a longtime blogger on the spot with no particular interest in energy-issues).
Here
and here.

Hello Berkeley,

Thxs for the update. I have posted much on this before, but I think it bears repeating: widespread adoption of bicycles, wheelbarrows, and other human-powered hand-tools to help leverage human power limitations will help confer personal biosolar tactical advantage into a large and contiguous biosolar habitat's long-run strategic advantage.

Recall my earlier postings on how the invention of the wheelbarrow or rickshaw was considered a secret weapon for China, or see the links again:

http://www.uni-kiel.de/sino/ar/sk/12a_1970s.jpg
http://www.uh.edu/engines/epi377.htm

I have also posted much before on spiderwebriding. Imagine if the Chinese laid down narrow gauge steel rails for steel-wheeled-barrows--how much more effective and efficient would the 100,000 workers in the linked photo accomplish their task?

First, by going to two wheels, it eliminates the required high center of gravity load balancing exertion by the upper arms and backs. Then, the steel wheel to steel rail vastly reduces frictional forces and eliminates the problems of potholes and mud. You can probably then move to a hip-harness: now you are using the superior strength of your legs and vastly reducing the upper body exertion [thus greatly reducing injury rates].

Now add modern design: what if those 100,000 workers further leveraged their efforts by adding PHEWs [Personal High Efficiency Workers] for negotiating the steep upgrades and downslopes? The battery assisted worker or PHEW could be a standardized design that would use a middle rail cog-gear setup for the bottom cograil, then the PHEW's upper frame would clamp onto the wheelbarrow's axle. It would then discharge the battery on upgrades, but could gather regenerative braking forces on the downslopes. That would free up the poor bastards in the photo who uphill assist the wheelbarrow operator to do more productive tasks with less effort.

Finally, TODer Jokuhl posted earlier in response to a reply by TODer AlanfromBigEasy:
------------------------------------------
Bob Shaw's request got me thinking that we could keep the SWR [Strategic Wheelbarrow Reserve] safely and productively loaded aboard your SRR (Strategic Railcar Reserve, right?), for handy deployment!
-------------------------
http://www.theoildrum.com/comments/2006/12/17/85510/525/71

If humans don't plan ahead: we will end up like the iconic photos of the poor African women carrying loads on top of their heads, or the Chinese laborer balancing heavy pole loads across their shoulders.

Never forget: one crude barrel = 25,000 physical man-hours.

How do you want to work once the FFs are gone?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Thanks for the link to the "Engines Of Our Ingenuity" website.

All those interested in tools, mechanics, physics, and the history behind our inventions (and looking for some quick light non-depressing reading) should check it out.

Here is a link to the Overall Index page:
http://www.uh.edu/engines/keywords.htm
2217 short articles!

Here is a quick sample...
2020 The screwdriver: archetype of subtle obviousness
[screwdriver, obvious, screwheads, invention]
1509 Late 18th century competition among roads, canals and railways [transportation, power, mines, mining, locomotive, Trevithick]
1512 The corner store: a retail outlet that is lost but not forgotten
[merchandising selling grocery store Galveston Beasley immigrants urban architecture]

Having recently started a business selling a modern version of a very old agricultural tool - still used world round by small farmers and called a grub hoe or digging hoe here in North America - I have been amazed at how many decent manual tools have been forgotten and have gone out of production since we started focusing on electric tools and farm tractors. Some I am able to find still available in other countries.

Thinking about the amount of effort needed to revive some of these tools and produce them here in the US is a bit overwhelming sometimes. One step at a time I guess..

While we are talking about great hand tools...

This spring I have been using my new broadfork:

http://www.lehmans.com/shopping/product/detailmain.jsp?itemID=1824&itemT...

It's a fabulous tool, and built to last a century. Surprisingly easy on the body (burns a lot of calories, though).

Hello Greenman,

Thxs for responding. Good tool that could be easily improved by simply adding a fulcrum point. After sticking into ground: swing out steel arms with metal pads on the end to act as a fulcrum point--then the leverage required is reduced by the teeter-totter action. Save your back and arms!

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Ah, you are missing the point. The crossbar is the fulcrum.

You step on the crossbar to drive the tines into the ground, then grab the handles and lean back. The crossbar on the surface of the soil is the fulcrum, and you just swing your weight back. Works very well.

Yeah, they're fun to use. Just make *sure* when using your broadfork in rocky soil, that you don't lean back into a *big* rock. The tines are quite solid, but you have tremendous leverage with a broadfork, and straightening those tines after you bend one on a big rock is not fun.

Good tool that could be easily improved by simply adding a fulcrum point.

Hi Bob. A good friend of mine who frequently travels to India says that it is common there for 2 laborers to operate a simple hand shovel. One digs in a normal fashion while the second pulls on a rope that is attached near the shovel's head, thus sharing the real digging effort of moving the dirt up and out of the hole. Makes sense when labor is plentiful.

Got one and do use it. The idea is to initially double dig a bed using the French intensive system, then never ever set foot on the oil again. Use your broadfork every spring to lift the soil for aeration and to loosen it so that you can work in more compost with a spading fork. The broadfork isn't really designed for TURNING soil, but for LIFTING it.

In Tennessee archiologists have excavated a Native American "industrial" site specializing in the manufacture of chert digging hoe blades. The site has chert nodules of just the right size and having a near-ideal combination of toughness and workability. The workshop arrangements imply worker specialization, and were used over a long period of time. Their hoes have been found hundreds of miles away, re-sharpened down to a nub.

Maybe in a couple of hundred years that site will be back in production.

Errol in Miami

If you haven't dicovered him yet, Eric Sloan's books are loaded with facinating info about old tools and ways of using them.

Thanks for remembering that one, Bob. I kind of liked the notion.

Here's today's wildly-impractical supplementary notion, or TWISN. I envision this with bike riders on some 'big hill' in a newly renovated, bike friendly town.. but it could work equally well with wheelbarrows, also! If there was an 'up' track and a 'down' track, with a looped Tow-Rope between them, then the ones going downhill could latch on and help the climbers ascend. This would/could even spare the descenders some of the strains of an unregulated descent.. (or in the case of bikers, the wasting of their height potential into the friction-wear on brake pads. A variation would be some kind of Linked Funicular Railcar, like a paralleled pair of escalators. There would be friction losses to consider, as well as the inertia of system equipment (making that rope look better and better), but such details, while devilish are not automatically dealkillers.. as much as we want things to be devilishly simple!

Regards,
Bob Fiske

Hello Greg in MO & Jokuhl,

Thxs for responding. Yep, we need lots of simple tools improved for the postPeak era.

I think spiderwebriding is best, but I was thinking about ways to improve the uphill & downhill use of rubber-tired wheelbarrows & bicycles for ice & snow because safe footing will be next to impossible.

Perhaps the rope-tow used on beginning skier bunny slopes. The safest way I have seen is where the novice sits inside a inflated tube to be dragged up the slope-- no way for them to fall. It also greatly reduces weight/sq. foot; it takes tremendous advantage of sliding across the top of the snow [no snow removal required].

Therefore if a wheelbarrow or bicycle needs to go up a snow-covered hill--just have them flop down onto the tube or some kind of sled--simple and safe. Since the rope or cable is circular-looping, the other side of the mechanism can be used for those wishing to get a load down the slope.

Same principle could be used on frozen canals or across lakes.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

This is really good news. The numbers are amazing. As a new e-bike commuter myself, I can tell you the e-bike technology is advancing nicely. Replacing some of our car usage with e-bikes could make a nice dent in fossil fuel consumption.

drwater, what kind of electric bike do you have, and how are you liking it?

(and there isn't a way to send private msgs on TOD, is there?)

also - I just emailed Consumer Reports begging them to do a review of electric bikes. Maybe if others did likewise...?

I didn't want this to be one of the first comments but I'll forget if I wait...

A few issues:
1) Has anyone renewed a certificate of deposit (CD) recently? It seems by the rates being offered, that the banks believe the next three months are going to be strong, but after that see things start going downhill.

2) RR, I'm sick of seeing "There have been no new refineries built since the 70's blah blah, evil environmentalists, blah..." Do you have access to information such that you might be able to do a main article with some graphs on refinery capacity through the years? Perhaps including upgrades in heavy oil processing capacity too?

3) Ace obviously puts a lot of effort into his posts, and he must live in some non-US part of the globe because his posts are invariably buried at the bottom of the drumbeats...can I petition on his behalf to grant him TOD Contributor status on the side column?

4) I think OilCEO has returned as Jefferson Space Shuttle. ::sigh::

Do you have access to information such that you might be able to do a main article with some graphs on refinery capacity through the years?

I have been thinking about doing such an article, but haven't had time yet. It would be worth covering, because this comes up again and again. But I did recently address it on my blog:

Tyson Slocum is Wrong

It is much cheaper to expand existing capacity than to build new refineries. The API recently estimated that it costs about 60 percent as much to expand existing capacity as to build new capacity. And refiners are definitely investing in expansions. In just the past 10 years, refinery capacity has expanded by 2 million barrels per day. That is the equivalent of adding 1 decent-sized refinery each and every year for 10 years.

I have links to the data in that post.

In Regina Saskatchewan, the local refinery/upgrader has gone through major capacity/system enhancements over the years. I know that it might be a narrow interest, but I would like to see someone with expertise evaluate the potential for oil/gas production and refinery capacity in Saskatchewan.

CAPP Statistics

My layman impression is that due to political factors, Alberta was overdeveloped and there is a lot of potential in Saskatchewan that hasn't seen the same investment. With the petroleum problems worldwide, our province may be a little on the socialist wing and hasn't been that conductive to business, but Lorne Calvert isn't Chavez.

While I'm certainly no expert on the situation, my observation and understanding is that most Saskatchewan properties are shallow wells, medium to heavy oil, not much gas, slow production from small dome structures. A typical well puts out maybe 150 a day. I don't think that the government has been at all restrictive, but that the production potential has been of the low cost, low output type.

A look at production profiles from North Dakota might point out whether the exploitation has been similar on both sides of the border. My hunch is that Saskatchewan may have been more active. The US has seemed to be slow to develop the Montana area as well. There are all sorts of these small production areas about the world, but cumulatively they won't result in much export possibility - and export is where the problem is.

Got any oil for sale?

It would be nice if you write this to also discuss the crack spread light/heavy and sour. Distillates vs gasoline and more.
I think this should be a fairly long series like we have gotten for coal and oil fields. You have posted most of this information before but it would be great to see it as a series of articles. The ending is of course how the heck is gasoline price determined. A set of rational articles by and expert will go a long way to educating everyone on how refineries operate and it might help prevent the uninformed backlashes we are seeing against refiners as gasoline prices rise. In my opinion your employer should pay you to write these since it would be to their benefit to get the truth out to the public and the MSM cannot handle the complexity directly. Bloggers who write the local papers can point the uninformed journalists to your blog.

Its a chance for two things.
1.) Educate the public so they understand that rising gas prices are not some attempt to gouge people.
2.) Open a door for people to look at the peak oil issue and begin to understand that the oil industry is having problems the least of which is that the easy oil is definitely over I don't think this is a contentious issue regardless of your stance on peak. From there you can track into more pessimistic opinions. The bottom line is oil will get more expensive for a long time to come.

I think with your expertise you can both shed some light on the refinery industry that helps people make the right decisions and point them into the right direction of concern about our oil supplies not fear mongering.

On another note a nice article on fractional flow would also be appreciated.

Robert, from an engineering perspective, what is the reasonable upper bound on the size of a refinery today, given our current technology? I would suspect that above a certain size, complexity would exceed our capacity to manage the plant and thus there ought to be an upper bound (just as there is a practical upper bound to the current max height of skyscrapers and it has risen over the years as technology has improved).

If we knew the size of the existing refineries, the rates of expansion, and the practical upper bound, we could make a guess at when new refineries would be needed. If refineries are unlike skyscrapers, lacking reasonable upper bounds, then expansion obviously the preferred way to always proceed.

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

The upper limit is almost certainly because of economics, not available technology.

Land is the limiting factor.

Most (at least many) refineries contain duplicate units of different processing/refining units.

But space is critical around many refineries.

A local refinery in Chalmette (downriver of New Orleans) had a crude storage tank that collapsed and spilled during Katrina. They offered generous buyouts (perhaps 130% of pre-Katrina values) for homes with a dozen feet of water and smeared in goo.

Saves legal fees, promotes good will but also clears the way for expansion.

Best Hopes,

Alan

Land is the limiting factor.

I don't think land is an issue here:


(google maps) Coop Refinery

The farmland to the north of the refinery would sell for $500-$2000 acre, and you can go for a few hundred miles of before you had an obstacle.

Consumer's Coop Refinery

I wonder what Jeff Vail thinks about the security of the refinery. More serious than a terrorist act, it's a traffic issue and a truck heading west on highway 46 that misses the curve would go right through the middle of the refinery. There isn't even a barricade. We don't have many lunatics, but we have a lot of icy roads. :)

We also have a lot of Co-ops and no Conoco.

Saskatchewan: Easy to draw, hard to spell.
Saskatchewan: You can watch your dog run away, for 3 days.
The actual license plate slogan: Land of the Living Skies

Robert, from an engineering perspective, what is the reasonable upper bound on the size of a refinery today, given our current technology?

I was about to write the same thing that Alan wrote. The land - specifically the tank farm since it takes up so much space - is going to be the limiting factor. It isn't going to be the technology. You can always add another cracker, another crude tower, another hydrotreater, another coker. But you can only do this as long as you have the land (and customers close enough to justify processing the crude) to do so.

For some refineries, transportation is the limiting factor.

Inland refineries (off water transportation) are limited by their pipelines. Crude in, product out.

Some product is shipped out via rail instead of pipeline or water (and locally trucks, New Orleans gets most of it's gasoline by trucking a couple of dozen miles from refinery to filling station), but higher costs work against that. I know of a few cases of local production crude being trucked in, but <250 miles. Imported oil is never trucked in.

I know of no case where water based refineries are limited by docking space.

Alan

In Houston, Colonial and Rancho pipeline access is crucial. When Astra Zeneca bought the Crown facility, this was key to the purchase.

Kinder Morgan is literally building storage tanks on top of each other at their facility.

Real estate is an issue along the Houston Ship Channel.

In Houston, Colonial and Rancho pipeline access is crucial. When Astra Zeneca bought the Crown facility, this was key to the purchase.

Kinder Morgan is literally building storage tanks on top of each other at their facility.

Real estate is an issue along the Houston Ship Channel.

Has anyone renewed a certificate of deposit (CD) recently? It seems by the rates being offered, that the banks believe the next three months are going to be strong, but after that see things start going downhill.

The Federal Reserve is in a terrible bind right now. The US$ has been plunging against other major currencies (arguably due at least in part, if not mainly, to our trade deficit -- which is due at least in part to increasing imports of increasingly expensive oil). The usual remedy would be to raise interest rates, which they had been doing until recently. They have had to stop raising them, though, because what they have already done has sent the housing market into the tank. Now we are just looking at a wave of foreclosures; bumping interest rates much higher would turn that wave into a tsunami.

So they must raise rates, but they can't. That's the bind, and it is a tough one to be in. I would hate to be a Fed governor right now.

What will happen? My best bet is that eventually global realities will overwhelm domestic expediency, and the Fed will have no choice but to raise interest rates further to defend the US$ from a total meltdown.

I could be wrong of course. But you might want to think twice before you lock in investments long-term right now.

increasing mortgage interest rates are a factor, but are not high (by the standards of the last 30 yrs). how about affordability ? bubblaceous prices and stagnant real earnings ?

Mortgage interest rates are not high by historic standards. What is different from historic standards are the number of people that have financed their home purchase with adjustable rate mortgages.

yes, is see what you mean. people who couldnt afford the mcmansion, driving the price up with "creative" financing.
an acquaintence from la told me that creative financing can mean the same as a five finger discount.

Ruminations about the garden:
With kudos to Unrepentant Cowboy but not understanding why he spent so long fighting that stony Texas soil.

I read a few drumbeats back that it was posted that the 16 and 17 centuries were times of immense drudgery and hard toiling labor and they didn't want to ever go back to that.

Several others have penned that its is a huge undertaking to go back to the land and develop a sustaining garden and style of life.

To all of those with like opinions I suggest, as was suggested to me, to read the book "Possum Living".

I also would point out that those painted scenarios are not exactly true to todays adventurer into sustainable living, particularly the part about growing food.

I have an auction to go to shortly, I go to a lot of them and find many useful items, and can't expound too much on this area right now but will later.

First we are not serfs and tied into serfdom any longer. With finacial abilities one can easily purchased a few acres or maybe 4 or 5 and live , IMO, very easily a sustainable lifestyle and be very comfortable. In fact find it quite pleasing and not just a big drudge.

I have always planted huge gardens when I had the room. In fact I have sometimes had 2 gardens. I found the work enjoyable and very healthy.

What I find is the drudgery of living in suburbia and having to constantly mow grass, run kids everywhere, thousands of trips to shopping malls, hardware stores, gas stations and driving always to eat out or go for entertainment.

Sitting at traffic lights and all the above are to me the monstrous equivalent of serfdom. Drudgery and never ending, spend, spend , spend, commute , commute and work , work , work 8-5 or even worse all weekends for zero pay(salaried,etc)and then have to do unpleasant duties and take a ration of shit along with it from mgmt.

Piss on a bunch of that nonsense. I would rather be growing my own food and laying in the hammock that to do the above.

Look at it this way. You buy or save some seed. Til the soil. Plant the seed. Eat the results. You have just eliminated every single middleman in the food chain. You can enjoy the best, freshest and healthiest food that you would be hard pressed to be able to purchase and you paid absolutely not one single cent for it nor paid any taxes on it as well nor expended gas or other trips to obtain it.

Just how much simpler can it get? . You own the property and with it paid off you are your own king. No rules or regulations apply. You do as you wish.

Later I will tell how simple it is to get and maintain good gardening soil. Gotta an auction to go to and some good tools to buy dirt cheap.

Airdale-I see it simple and easy, not a drudge or hardship,
and some have already 'broken the code' on this.