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DrumBeat: May 21, 2007
Posted by Robert Rapier on May 21, 2007 - 9:05am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Note: Leanan is on vacation, but I just realized I have the power to edit these Drumbeats. I won't be posting the extensive stories she posts, but I may throw a few out there before they take my power away. :-) RR
Gas prices: Worse than '81 oil shock
Gas now at highest level, even adjusted for inflation; AAA's reading of nearly $3.20 a gallon marks ninth straight record high in current dollars. Gasoline prices soared to levels never seen before as even the inflation-adjusted price for a gallon of unleaded topped the 1981 record spike in price that had stood for 26 years.
Note: I don't know how many times I have told people that my opposition to corn ethanol has nothing to do with my employer. As I have pointed out, my employer is one of the largest natural gas producers in the U.S. As illustrated in the next story, the ethanol boom is great for natural gas producers. RR
7 ways to invest in the oil boom
Historically, gas markets have been tied to seasonal demand for heating and cooling. Prices rose in winter and summer and fell in the spring and fall. This spring, however, gas prices have held up unexpectedly well, with prices staying near $7.50 per million BTUs. A key driver has been commercial and industrial demand, up 8 percent in January and February, according to the Energy Information Administration.
One surprising explanation is the ethanol boom. Most of the new ethanol plants dotting the Midwest are gas-fired. In addition, corn growers are using much more fertilizer, which is produced using natural gas. "That's why we're seeing $7-plus natural gas now," says Parlanti. XTO, an independent gas producer, has a P/E of 12 and is projected to increase profits 11 percent this year.
Tough decisions to ensure a low-carbon world
There is a sense of total unreality in our public rhetoric. We are continually reminded we have never had it so good - the economy is doing splendidly, the stockmarket is booming and employment is at full stretch after 15 years of growth.
At the same time we are looking at the most serious issue to confront humanity in centuries - human-induced climate change - largely caused by the unsustainable energy consumption and exports on which our prosperity is based. After years of denial, we are beginning to accept this reality and seek solutions.
Iraq's Oil Law Gives International Oil Companies Too Much -VP
Iraq's Vice President Tariq Al Hashimi said Sunday he opposes a draft oil law that is crucial to Iraq's future because it gives too many concessions to international oil companies and the country's regions. "We disagree with the production sharing agreement," Al Hashimi told Dow Jones. "We want foreign oil companies but not with big privileges."
The Energy Report for Monday, May 21, 2007
Talk about a gasoline pop top. All those people saying that gasoline had already topped got popped in last week's explosive gasoline market. With the country running on fumes for supply and another bad week for refiners with outages, (or good luck if you look at it from the profit angle) the market seems to be adjusting to its bullish destiny.
This week I expect crude oil supply to be down 2.0 million barrels. As for gasoline I'm looking for an increase of 1.5 million barrels and I am looking for distillates to be up 1.0 MB with refinery runs up 0.5%. Refineries had a run of bad luck last week. Are we in for more this week?
Brazilian Biofuels Can Meet World Gasoline Demand - Expert
Currently, Brazil uses only 0.8% of its entire territory (8.5 million square kilometres) for the production of biofuels - an insignificant patch of land, so to speak. But if it were to cultivate energy crops for biofuels on a quarter of its territory (around 212 million hectares), the country could supply the entire world's current gasoline needs (which stand at around 24 million barrels per day).
Valero can't win with regulators
Southern California air-quality regulators are fining Valero Energy Corp. $5,000 a day because the San Antonio-based company delayed upgrades to its Wilmington refinery — at the request of California energy officials.
Although the state badly needs more fuel production, the few refinery expansion projects on the drawing board face fierce neighborhood opposition and California's new goals for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. Similar conflicts are becoming acute at the state's ports, the only lifeline to outside supplies of crude oil and gasoline.
Biofuels Producers See Big Barriers To Targets Set By Bush
"I've yet to meet anyone who thinks more than half could be from ethanol and biodiesel," Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International, said of the targets. He said total production of ethanol and biodiesel could reach 17.5 million gallons by 2017. Hammond said there could be other solutions to the conundrum, such as coal-to-liquids technology or the use of natural gas as a transportation fuel. But Hammond, who emceed some of the sessions Friday, also warned that U.S. gasoline demand is forecast to grow by some 35 million gallons a day over the next decade.
Oil steadies as US crude backlog offsets worries over Nigerian output
US refinery outages have caused a backlog of crude oil in Cushing, Oklahoma, arguably the most significant trading hub for crude oil in North America, sending US crude prices lower despite continued fears of gasoline shortages when the peak US summer driving season begins this weekend.
Expert: "Peak oil" will force changes
Pahl maintains that the most critical -- and under-reported -- issue facing the world right now is that we're approaching the time of "peak oil," the historic moment when world oil production and reserves begin to decline.
Retail gasoline prices set new record
A gallon of regular unleaded costs an average of $3.196, up from $3.178 on Sunday, according to AAA and Oil Price Information Service.
Crude Oil Rebounds, Climbs Above $65 on US Gasoline Concern
Crude oil climbed above $65 a barrel in New York amid concern the U.S. won't have enough gasoline when the summer driving season starts next week.
[Instead of posting the following as a stand-alone TOD essay, I will just throw a link here in the Drumbeat. I have received a response from Professor Jacobson, and I will post it tomorrow. RR]
The NRDC specifically sent out a "debunking Mark Jacobson" memo. Why would an environmental organization disagree with him? He has heckled me at my speeches for a while and when somebody asked him why he told them that he was upset that biofuels were taking away funding from wind research.
Here's one from me - SS:
General Electric to Sell Plastics Division
General Electric agreed today to sell its plastics division for $11.6 billion to the largest public company in Saudi Arabia, the Saudi Basic Industries Corporation.
...
Most analysts quickly honed in on Sabic, because of its access to Saudi Arabia’s vast petroleum supplies. After all, it was the ever-rising cost of benzene, a petroleum derivative and a key raw material for G.E.’s plastics products, that had sucked the profitability out of the unit for G.E. A company like Sabic, with an inexpensive and inexhaustible supply of benzene could far more easily turn a profit.
Found this from urbansurvival.com
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm
Plateu anyone?
A steep short sweet plateau....
I know a lot of people still may think PO is not here yet.
But at the beginning of such a plateau, someone somewhere must start reducing demand if other countries continue to grow. US, and Chinese demand is still growing, as an example.
So, the effects of Peak Oil are already rippling thru the third world - Parts of Africa, Asia, South and Central America.
The longer the plateau, the further up the ladder the forced conservation/demand destruction climbs.
This is reconciled against the OECD (rich countries) continuing to draw down stockpiles at a rate of almost 1MMBPD (930kbpd April). They are just deferring the climb a short while (delaying the next major bidding round) but not for long.
Hi peakTO, here is where US gets the extra oil form, Reuters-senegal , feeling guilty ?
The other day (2 days ?) they prompted Senegal has ONLY 1 week worth of diesel (fuel) to run their entire national electricity supplies..... full blackout is in the comming
Senegal are tasting the fruits of soaring fuel-costs and have "peak-oil (money-wise) in the corner of their eyes ...."
The Guinea had similar issues some time back - and it is not going away ...
A pumpkin is ONLY so big -
Just watch the MSM blank this one for a while!
Wall Street Journal 18 May:
The impact of today's energy crunch on the poor is plain in rich nations such as America: Expensive gasoline and soaring heating bills make a hard life harder. In impoverished countries such as Guinea, where per capita income is just $370 a year and surging gasoline prices have helped spark bloody riots, the energy shock has become a matter of life and death.
Global demand for oil has soared in recent years, pushing international prices to record levels. Despite a recent decline, a barrel of crude still costs about double what it did three years ago. The most powerful energy-importing nations have responded by proclaiming energy security a top policy goal. President Bush has vowed to wean America off its "addiction" to oil. The U.S. is mobilizing more ships and soldiers to protect supply lines, while Beijing is scrambling to buy oil fields from Asia to Africa.
While robust economies like America and China are withstanding the shock, the poorest countries aren't. Increasingly they can't afford to slake their citizens' thirst for petroleum -- breeding another form of energy insecurity. The pressure threatens to undermine economies and sow domestic strife, further unsettling shaky regions and presenting fresh worries for policy makers in the West. In addition to Guinea, Nepal, Yemen, Iraq and Indonesia all have been rocked by fuel protests in the past two years.
From Saildog - I picked this up from another thread here on TOD to drop into another post on FMNN (there are some real nutters over there) - so thanks to whom ever it was who originally posted it!
The 4% projected growth and 8 mbpd shortfall? Talk about selection bias. How about projecting the long term growth of 1.5% instead of selecting the high growth rate coming out of a recession. This leaves only a 2.5mbpd shortfall, roughly 3% of demand. Doubling the price of crude oil resulted in a 3% decrease in demand, how shocking!
Let's state your proposition the other way around - a 3% shortfall in meeting demand caused a doubling in price. What will another 3% shortfall cause? And another? And another?
Also, you are nitpicking. It's still exponential growth. A 4% projected growth rate results in doubling of demand in 17.5 years. A 1.5% projected growth rate results in doubling of demand in 46 years. Do you seriously think petroleum production can grow to 170 million barrels per day by 2053?
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
>Let's state your proposition the other way around - a 3% shortfall in meeting demand caused a doubling in price. What will another 3% shortfall cause? And another? And another?
It won't be linear. Once past peak production, economic growth will slow or end. This will put a crimp on demand growth. Thus the price of oil will not go to infinitely as supply slowly dwindles to zero.
"The 4% projected growth and 8 mbpd shortfall? Talk about selection bias."
Yeah, you see a lot of that type of nonsense. The problem is that it completely undercuts what is a serious problem. The fossil fuel crisis is real, but anyone with half a brain sees that type of stuff, shakes their head and turns away....move along, nothing to be seen here....
The same true of picking out these third world Diesel crisis situations and using them as some kind of evidence about the world geological oil situation.
Many of these countries have cartels that control Diesel, no home market refining of Diesel, and enough graft and corruption to bleed even a strong nation to death. How they do as well as they do is evidence of the power of human spirit and ingenuity. Half of these countries had blackout and brownout on an ongoing basis right through the '80's and 90's when fuel was givaway in the developed nations. We will leave aside the fact that many of these nations sit on the south Asian land mass or Africa, which EXPORTS oil and natural gas while the locals sit in the dark (there is a reason that developed nations went to natural gas for electric power production)
On and on the idiocy goes....as I sit writing this post, the local TV news in Louisville is interviewing people about the effect of the gasoline price....a restaurant owner is saying that he has had to raise prices due to the cost of food deliveries to his restaurant going up....."and sure, it's part of the run up in gasoline....", he says. (!!!) Are food delivery trucks back to running on gasoline now....?
(When I was in the auto service trade, we serviced food delivery trucks, tires oil changes etc., and everyone I was was running Diesel fuel)
Anytime you have a price move in anything, it goes with out saying that every grafter in the country will use it as an excuse to try to tack on and ride the coattails....they know that most Americans have no idea what kind of fuel is used in trucks, trains, barges, tractor trailers, and cargo aircraft....
and the band plays on.....
RC
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
edit: Accidental double post-second one edited out!
Doubling the price of crude oil resulted in a 3% decrease in demand, how shocking!
that was the 3% that poorer countries couldn't afford...
Sure looks like it. John
Plateu anyone?
Of course if you extend that graph back a few more years, you will see several of those.
I have to keep reminding myself of that fact because I have never watched production (I mean extraction) as closely before. But things just feel so 'peakish' of late. Over the next couple of weeks I'm going to try and find a Canadian Energy Trust with a good reserve life index:)
I own Enerplus Resources Fund (ERF). Any recommendations for other CanRoys?
Great investment.
Wow!.. that's the one that currently has my fancy. I don't have the data with me but I seem to recall that ERF has a > 13 year RLI?
Peyto has 23 years of proven reserves, 40 years if you include possible. But yes, Enerplus is my second choice, COS being the third.
My favorites are Canadian Oil Sands (COSWF.PK), Enerplus (ERF), and Penn West (PWE), in that order of preference.
I would be careful about piling into energy at this stage.
IMHO we are close to the end of a very big bubble which when it pops will take down ALL asset markets including energy. Energy may well recover but you may have a wild ride.
Have we ever been this far into a plateau before with these economic conditions - rising prices and continued flat production? And with little sign of significant growth in production and no sign of any respite in prices? The economic conditions surrounding this plateau look unique to me at first glance.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
And weren't all the other plateau's secondary to war, embargo's, and economic slow-downs?
"And weren't all the other plateau's secondary to war, embargo's, and economic slow-downs?"
That's normally true, and luckily we are not in any wars right now.....DOH! :-(
Forgot about those two in Afghnanistan and Iraq....oh well, at least everything is quite on Israeli/Palastinian front....DOH! forgot about that Lebenonese thing...
Well at least all is peaceful in the producing countries and we are getting along good with everybody there...DOH! :-(
o.k., so Nigeria and Venesuala might not be exactly perfect....
oh, and can you spell "I-R-A-N" boys and girls...ahhhh, feels like old times, wasn't the last big production collapse when things weren't going so well in Iran and Iraq (blue arrow, link below)
http://www.grinningplanet.com/2005/06-14/2-peak-oil-copyright1.gif
....the 1970's are chic again, fire up the Fleetwood Mac soundtrack
"Don't stop, thinkin' about tomorrow, don't stop, it will sooon be here...."
"It'll be better than before, yesterdays gone, yesterdays gone...."
RC
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
I fail to see the point in stating above-ground factors are producing an artificial "undulating plateaux" and then peak rather than geological. In a perfect world only the geology matters, but in reality saying "Well, geo-politics is screwing us over, but it's okay, we've not run past the halfway mark yet!" is beside the point. Much like saying we've not run off the cliff yet, so it's okay the accelerator pedal's stuck.
Either way, harsh times are coming to us and are already affecting many others. Unless someone can magick away the problems in Nigeria, Iran, Iraq and so on, the point is moot. A bottleneck exists and the world is failing to meet expected growth without cutbacks somewhere helping others grow instead.
Admiral Valdemar,
This is a discussion we have long had here at TOD:
The difference in implications and effects between
(a) logistical peak
(b) geological peak
The easiest to show is the effect of the 1970's/early "80's peak and massive drop in production (note the green arrow in the oil production history chart in my other post). This was a logistical peak.
After the logistical situation changed, (and it always will) the world was hit by a flood of cheap oil that basically sent the energy industry, both conventional and alternative energy, into a total crash.
Had the peak and production collapse of the 1970's been geological, or permanent, the long term investment situation and energy development structure of the world would of course been completely different.
Here is the issue: If the current peak is geological and permanent, then investments in energy, both conventional and alternative, are sure fire winners, and plannning for permanent high oil prices is prudent.
But, if the peak is logistical, above ground and not geological in nature, the danger looms large of a price meltdown, and subsequent energy investment wipeout is fully possible.
In the 1970's, many percieved the peak and production drop to be permanent, and invested accordingly, in speculative energy ventures and alternative energy schemes.
They were wiped out. People who invested the best early years of their careers in the belief that alternative energy would soon be needed desperately lost everything. I remember people who went into alternative energy as a patriotic calling in the 1970's because they felt bringing down oil consumption was absolutely imperative to the survival of the nation.
By 1982, the oil price went into crash, and these young technicians and small firms were left with no market, as even the Reagan administration, in a direct slap in the face to the alternative energy industry tore the solar panels off the White House and slashed research in energy conservation and alternatives to nothing.
The point: If people misread the timing, and misread the difference between a logistical peak and a geological peak, they can mis-invest accordingly and be wiped out. Trying to understand whether this is a geological peak, or a 1970's type logistical (above ground peak is absolutely critical in personal planning and investment.
Roger Conner Jr.
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
So, what you are saying ThatsIt is keep on wasting energy, don't try to control demand, just keep pumping out babies and automobiles, just in case some trader might make some big bucks during some large fluctuation in the overall trend towards peak.
Very smart.
This penchant for insisting that the peak be either observed or somehow mathematically documented when we know where we are headed will result in many extra deaths. Insanity is the insistence on continuing to do what doesn't work.
Quit being insane.
Not trying to be picky, Thatsit, but unless you have another graph posted, that I couldn't find, it is a red arrow not green. (also a darling blue arrow there you didn't mention).
But on this:
Personally I have never claimed to have the advantages of half a brain, so would you who I am sure must have one, explain? All I can see is that you don't have the same tastes in Yogurt as HeIsSoFly. (no defense of He Is So Fly's tastes, merely an eyerolling questioning glance at you both.
On my computer the red arrow shows the top now, and the arrow back in the 1970's production collapse is somewhat blue green (but I have a Mac, so it may be color blind :-) that's the only tow arrows on the chart, and only one indicates what is a large multi year valley....
What I was talking about was the type of "selection bias" that the poster I was replying to was talking about. The desperation to create a panic has taken on immense proportions but anyone who looks at the longer range production history and actually looks at statistics in an unbiased way can see that so far what we have seen is a plateau that is not that long lasting yet, and no more than measurement error given that we have a very chaotic world oil situation (Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Venesuela, staggering corruption in Mexico, etc.) that tells us almost nothing about the world's real ability to produce oil as for as the geology goes.
am I denying peak? Of course not (although many will try to discredit anyone who doubts that possess the power of prophets by shoving words into their mouth)
We could already be past peak. But the "proof" they are using is no proof at all. History has shown many so called "peaks" that turned out to be temporary and led people into investments based on assumptions that were not valid.
As far as consumption reduction, to me, we should be on emergency mitagation right now and supporting all conservation efforts and alternatives that are promising, not because we are proven to be at peak, but for reasons of national security, balance of trade issues, and the fact that we are completely blind as to what the real situation is.
As for me, I am pretty happy with an ancient stick shift Diesel, and if I were buying a newer car, it would be another Diesel that could get well over 30 miles per gallon. I try to leave the air conditioning off until at earliest July 4th (I have succeeded at that for the last 2 years straight) and keep my budget in such a shape that I can still get around even if Diesel fuel goes over 6 to 7 bucks a gallon. (I just might get around as much!) :-)
But hurling scare stories based on stats that are bogus (does anyone really accept a year on year on year growth in consumption of 4%?, and has anyone seen an 8 million barrel per day shortfall yet? It may happen, but for now, those are pure speculations based on nothing but guesswork, you don't have to be a "cornucopian" to question those kind of numbers, do you?)
But, questioning numbers has become very unpopular here, hasn't it?
You believe the prophets of doom or you shut the fvck up....
RC
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
Do you really believe that TOD posters are trying to "create a panic"?!?
I think you meant to say the "desperation to reduce consumption".
Sure, if you look only at production data it gives no real clear evidence of peak.
But most of us around here are looking at more than that.
Look at Stuart and Euan's work on SA.
Look at Westexas's HL work.
Aces work on the megaprojects database projections.
Simmons and Bakhiarti's testimony of imminent peak.
World crude prices.
etc etc
Production data doesn't exist in a vacuum. When viewed as a whole the evidence for peak is quite compelling (but not conclusive).
What a ridiculous straw man Roger. I have yet to see an online community more critical of "numbers" that TOD. In fact your first post was a reply to a poster questioning the numbers!
Are you trying to create a panic here Roger?
No, you present a coherent, thought out, researched argument or you "shut the fvck up".
Before Reagan no one believed anyone could be such a consummate @#$% asshole as to rip the solar water heater off the White House roof. Or that said consummate MF would then be lauded for the rest of time as the greatest aid and comfort a degenerate empire ever had. And a true Saint. Saint Ron.
I was one of those who went out of business and Saint Ron's let them eat cake BS, still wildly popular, was what did it.
May he rot in Hell.
Roger: Try to remember that it is not the 1970s. A lot of oil has been burned in the last 30-35 years (approx 80% as much conventional oil as is currently remaining in the ground). That is not chicken feed, and cannot logically be dismissed with constant references to the disco era.
Most of the responders to my post simply want to fight for the sake of fighting, so fight among yourselves....
Anyone who has seen posts know that I have said longer and stronger than most that fuel consumption should come down, because to the fact that we are running completely in the blind on when peak will occur, whether it has already occured, and the exact nature of the consequences mean we are taking terrble chances by not making the push for alternatives and conservation NOW.
But that's not what folks here want to hear, is it? All they want to hear is "it's over, the story's up, there are no alternatives, it's gas and oil until the end of the world, and they control our fate and keep us from the stone age, and no other possibility will ever work.....yada, yada, yada, I swear, If I were an oil company exec I COULD NOT WRITE better propaganda....
But this time, people with any knowledge of history at all will DAMM CAREFUL before they let the energy industry and OPEC sucker them into throwing their life savings into the energy (conventional or alternative) casino to be gutted like pigs when they decide to open the gates that ONLY THEY know what is behind and ONLY THEY CAN CONTROL.
There are a lot of people who have NEVER forgiven the way in which they were led by the so called "intellectuals" into financial slaughter in the 1970's and 80's.
BrianT says, "Roger: Try to remember that it is not the 1970s."
Your damm right it's not. It's easy for some half azz intellectual to tell people to dump their 401K sell their equity in a good nieghborhood and head for the hills to live in a hut in the woods....
In the 1970's, people were stupid enough to buy into it without asking questions.....this time, we don't get suckered so easy.
Let the American fat azz SUIV'ers pay a bit over $5 or $6 bucks for awhile, they may scream like babies but they can afford it, this time the technicians and companies will make them put the money on top of the table up front before they wreck their career giving away the alternatives......and despite the oil boot lick propaganda, there are alternatives.....
RC
Remember we are only one cubic mile from freedom
(but don't expect for the real technicians, not the yakkers and panic mongers, but the real ones, to get you there for free.....)
RC, I think you are trying to take the world on your shoulders, things will work out the way they will and you and I are not going to change things all that much. Yes, of course, some people are going to run off and live in a hut in the woods because of something they hear here but I doubt that there will be many that do that that haven't always secretly wished they could. This society is not so much of a much for many people.
As far as worrying about the timing of peak oil, well that is nice if it can be done, but really very unimportant in the light of what is happening to the world by our use of fossil fuel. You say someone may lose their 401K and their and their equity in a good neighbourhood? You know quite well we are likely all to loose more than that whether or not peak oil is now, or thirty years from now.
I really have doubts that any techno fix will make all the problems disappear and we will be able to go on living in this rather strange and plastic world we have allowed to be made for us but that is an opinion and nothing to get excited about.
Now with that said and with what you have said, said, would you please let me know about that arrow, is it green? From what you were talking about, the graph with the red arrow didn't make any sense to me.
Correct. But the geologic peak seems to be expressing itself as a logistic like peak right now. You have a myriad of factors that indicate peak or more correctly slightly post peak production. First the overall price of oil is high yet consumption is still increasing in the wealthier nations and it has reached the point that this in combination with the past peak in light sweet is straining refinery capacity right now in some nations. This is a mixed geologic peak logistic effect. We are so close to peak production that we are still in a sense in echo mode of the peak of oil consumption which is in fact still increasing in some nations despite the price.
The obvious political/military factors driven primarily by the high prices associated with peak and the overshoot of demand in the wealthy countries is logistic with geologic peak as the underlying factor.
So the way peak oil seems to play out as is numerous logistic problems or issues just like we have seen in the past yet this time they all seems to happen together and world oil production relentlessly grinds downward.
This logistic expression of peak oil goes deep. For example the continued gasoline problems in the US makes it profitable to move gasoline to the most expensive areas via tanker truck. This simple response causes two problems.
1.) The truck itself is burning diesel and suffering wear and tear transporting the gasoline long distance.
2.) This is gasoline that does not enter the pipeline system or exits early degrading our ability to pump gasoline through the pipeline system.
3.) It eventually causes prices to rise in to rise in the region that is losing gasoline to internal exports.
The point is this logistic problem and response is met with an action to address the issue that is itself negative and further worsens the problem. These logistic issues follow a sort of scaling law from small local actions to large actions such as invasion of Iraq. And you have secondary effects such as delaying paving a road because of costs leading to a road thats bumpy with potholes. Driving at speed on this rougher road lowers fuel economy and leads to a slight up tick in the accident rate which generally cases the loss of a automobile made from petroleum products in addition to the time and energy used by the response crew.
Small example but again you see how and unrecognized geologic peak leads to feedback effects that in general lower the amount of oil available and aggravate the situation. Thousands of these logistic feedback effects begin to operate in essence undamped as peak oil marches forward. Initially people will focus on these logistic issues claiming that are the reason we are having problems but in time the underlying real culprit geologic peak cannot remain hidden.
So geologic peak is tightly intertwined with the logistic effects this means its correct to treat geologic peak and in general resulting logistic expression as two separate independent problems. In general as you follow a logistic effect back to the root cause its either high prices or shortages both of these are the first order effects of peak oil. But the real problem is the vicious feedback between logistic problems and peak oil this is the real killer so to speak it is what is causing snowball and butterfly effects that will I believe will cause the situation to deteriorate far faster than most believe. The reason is that the only force that can dampen these effects is relentless and real demand destruction which means some significant parts of the worlds economy must effectively cease to exist in short economic collapse must happen somewhere in the world soon to lessen the strain.
My bet is on the Philippines as being the first reasonably sized economy to self destruct and act as the required release valve for the rest of the world. I think you can model the coming decline after peak oil as a combination game of Russian roulette and musical chairs with the loser of a round of musical chairs forced to play a round of Russian roulette.
Robert has a point, but as you point out, there are other conditions to think about.
Has an earlier plateau ever coincided with such a plethora of predictions of peak as now? (Campbell, Deffeyes, Bakhtiari, etc. I'm speaking of conventional crude.)
Has an earlier plateau ever coincided with the sudden decline of so many giant oil fields (Cantarell, Burgan, Ghawar)?
Has an earlier plateau ever been accompanied by such persistent rises in oil prices?
Had an earlier plateau ever been accompanied by such a lack of "surplus capacity" as now?
Nothing definitive, or course, just "preponderance of evidence" enough to give one agita.