Cyclone Gonu Thread 1
Posted by Prof. Goose on June 4, 2007 - 9:00am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cyclone gonu, gas prices, india, iran, oil, oil prices, oman, pakistan, peak oil, united arab emirates [list all tags]
NB: New Thread Created on Front Page at Noon EDT on 6/7, here is a link to our most recent (4th) Gonu thread. The second thread (6/5) can be found here and the third thread can be found here. The most recent thread will always be available at the top of The Oil Drum's front page.
Please put all new resources and insights on Iran/Oman there--but also make sure to scroll through this thread and bring over things we might have missed to the new comment thread.
Exclusive--Please credit THE OIL DRUM and Chuck Watson of KAC/UCF.
KAC/UCF and Chuck Watson are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 20-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 10-15 days--all of this assuming they are built to US standards.
If you have any insights, please email the editors box with the word GONU in the subject.
Last updated at 10:30am EDT.
Why might Gonu matter? Well, that answer begins with the fact that the world production of petroleum plateauing around 85 mbbl/day, any slight blip in supply or exporting could be quite noticeable on the world markets. A sizeable portion of the world's petroleum exports go through the Gulf of Oman.
Particularly, Oman matters in this because it produces 743,000 bbl/day; Oman is also a net exporter, non-OPEC, whose production peaked earlier in the decade. (Thanks to Mike from Green Car Congress for the link.).
Of course, this storm also has the potential to affect Iran, UAE, India, and/or Pakistan for that matter--mainly because of shipping disruptions, but there could be some real effects on infrastructure and assets depending on track and landfall. There are also refining and other production assets in Southern Iran, especially in Chah Bahar.
(One will note, as you explore the old comment thread that many of these possibilities are explored...there's a lot of material that we are still sorting through on Iran, shipping lanes, storm surge, etc.)
Resources put under the fold (hit "There's more" to load).
The latest from Margie Kieper and Steve Gregory (on Jeff Masters' blog) over at Weather Underground (sorry!):
The Storm surge shown (10-15 ft) will almost certainly hit the Iran coast - even if the storm weakens to a strong CAT 2 late Tuesday (NY time). The Eastern tip of Oman will likely also experience 10-15 foot surge due to the close proximity of the storm track. Further up the Gulf, before reaching the Straits of Hormuz - storm surge heights of 1-4 feet are expected on the Oman side, and 4-possibly 6 feet on the Iranian side near the entrance to the Straits. Significant wave heights will be 20-30 feet, dropping to 15 feet near the Straits.This is an unprecedented event. NO CYCLONE has ever entered the Gulf of Oman. And there are no custom 'storm surge' models available for that area. This forecast is based on my experience and subjective analysis of the seabed slope and storm surge interaction with the sea floor. Considering the region has never experienced a hurricane, let alone a strong one it is highly unlikely the loading facilities or platforms were constructed to withstand the forces - both wave action and wind force - that they will experience. Significant, damage will occur. How much long term damage, and the volumes associated with it - can not be determined at this time.
And here's the latest projected track:
As for damage assessments, a tip of the hat to Kinetic Analysis Corporation (affiliated with the University of Central Florida). Early estimates of damage and tracking are available here (Scroll down to Gonu). Here's a graphic:
Chuck Watson of KAC/UCF has also been kind enough to send us some graphics of the storm surge model with the current forecast:
(Click here for a full size surge map, and click here for the projected damage map.)
Also, click "there's more" below for more graphics and links, and there's much more from our readers in the comment thread as well...
Here's a link to a map of land-based oil assets on the peninsula.
Regarding GONU...
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=&q=gonu
Sorted by date...
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=&q=gonu&ie=UTF-8&scoring=n
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?blog=andrews&date=2007-06-04_...
--I can say with confidence that this forecaster has never seen the likes of this
If you go here, and click
on the North Indian Ocean links, you can get a feel for how rare this is. From 1995 on, no tropical storm of any strength ever reached the Persian Gulf.
I didn't know they got hurricanes in the gulf
Boris
london
They are called "cylcones" ... in the Indian Ocean ... but as you say too rare in Arabian Sea to have a special name.
Seppo Korpela
New GONU thread on front page as of 7:30am EDT, please put all NEW insights, links, and resources there--feel free to move the germane stuff from here over there as well into the new comment thread.
Cheers,
PG
Storm wont hit Saudi oil hub, Oman on high alert
No worries people! Everything is gonna be just fiiiiiiiiii.............
A Dubai-based shipping agent also said no official warning had been sent to his company.
"If it was dangerous, we would have been informed," he said.
Faith, a many splendored thing.
In a comment which ended up not posting itself correctly, I pointed out that the element of surprise is going to play a major, major role in magnifying any damage.
This happened in 1999 where I live in Germany - a truly respectable pocket hurricane blasted through on Dec. 26 - and most people had no idea of what that meant.
I haven't heard the term "pocket hurricane". But I'm always up for learning something new on TOD. I suspect it refers to a tropospheric V-fold event, or a very intense midlatitude cyclone. Perhaps falling along the wrong side of a well-developed bent-back occlusion.
I've seen the footage of that forest being flattened in the 1999 event. Truly amazing.
-best,
Wolf
There isn't really a good term for what happened during that storm - 'pocket hurricane' is my own invention.
It was an 'Orkantief' (literal translation - 'hurricane low' or more accurately, 'intense low-pressure system') which started in the Bay of Biscay and which then barrelled through France, Switzerland, and Germany. It was actually quite narrow and focused - but very, very powerful by any measure. There does not seem to have been any rotation of the storm, for example, and the temperature was only mildly above freezing.
But it lacked several 'normal' hurricane features - no real flooding, no real severe lightning.
But for a number of reasons, Germany was totally unprepared for what happened -
1. Dec 26 is part of the Christmas holidays - most everyone was at home, including the weather service employees and radio/TV news departments.
2. Hurricanes as such don't happen here - meaning that no one really had any idea what was happening - or more importantly, what was going to happen. I suspect this factor will play a very major role in the Persian Gulf.
3. The weather had been freezing around a week before the hurricane, but everything had thawed in the heavy rains in the days before the storm - this is a major reason why so many trees were uprooted - of course, about half of the trees which were destroyed simply snapped in half, but of the remaining half, if the ground had been more firm, they likely would have survived better.
Hurricanes don't usually produce much lightning.
My memories are from Virginia - and the thunderstorms before and after a hurricane were always very, very impressive.
This was one of the things that made Agnes so interesting to a child - it rained for days, but only rarely was there any lightning, so we could all play outside in the downpours, and watch the flooding first hand at the local creeks.
Generally, these are just first hand impressions describing personal experience.
I am amazed that so far there isn't much reaction. This isn't even on the CNN homepage. And oil prices, while up a little, are not reacting much. Yet.
Dante at PO.com says oil is up 3% in Europe, on shipping concerns.
there is a live chart on the right sidebar just above the site meter showing WTI front month crude, which is up $1.35 -or about 2% just before noon EST. Nat gas up 4% but I think that has more to do with refining arb than the hurricane - how much LNG do we get from Qatar? Not alot now but in 5 years, yes.
AP thinks Gonu is partly to blame:
Word is starting to get out. Posted 12:08 pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=a79exNcmifwE&refer=e...
"Category Four storm...the U.S. Navy said"
Who'da thought that the Navy would have their "stealth" cyclone weapon working so quickly? Now, just got to learn how to aim it.
The Weather Channel has picked it up now, as well...
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/index.html?from=wxcenter_news
Franc (penguinzee)
Saudi Arabia has a pipeline from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea that can carry (from memory) 4 or 5 million b/day for export to Europe (plus internal demand and petrochemical feedstock).
I would hope that they are shifting to that now.
I think that we will see complete unpreparedness in the Persian Gulf. Winds may not be that high but the winds might exceed design limits.
Any thought on storm surge into the Persian Gulf ? Would even half a meter disrupt loading platforms etc.?
If I were a tanker captain heading for the Straits of Hormuz, I would stop right now and wait for developments.
To the lee of Qatar might not be a bad place to be.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Anything electrical in its path is probably going down for a week or two.
It would be nice if a reader had a map of the oil assets in and near the persian gulf (we are spoiled at TOD)
I am also curious if the installations in that area are not as fortified as they might be in the GOM which has periodic hurricanes - to my knowledge theres never been a hurricane IN the persian gulf - would be kind of tough to maintain the velocity at the exact course (unless it was steered by the Russians of course...;) Would a CAT 3 do damage anywhere?
Yep, here's what we need:
a) A topo of the whole peninsula (I am guessing the answer to Alan and Nate's query is that KSA is pretty flat, ergo storm surge will matter...)
b) a map of the oil assets, including rigs, ports, pipelines, etc.
c) is there anything oil related on the Indian/Pakistani side of the gulf?
d) and of course, anything else related...all links, etc., welcome down below.
For an idea of low-lying areas and population centres, try http://www.flashearth.com/ (needs Flash plugin)
Choose 'Microsoft VE (labels)' from button menu, and type 'Oman' into bottom right search box. Lat/Lon is given on the map - Gonu is expected to hit around 22.0 N, 60.3 E.
Zoom etc. should be the same as Google Maps/Google Earth.
Offshore Rigs
Many of the Gulf of Mexico offshore drilling rigs have been redeployed to the Persian Gulf. So they can withstand the minor winds that will be left by the time Gonu hits Oman.
OTOH, production platforms are site specific and designed for local conditions. And these are the ones that matter !
I still believe that winds will be a trivial problem inside the Gulf, waves a secondary problem. My major concern is over storm surge.
A wall of water is being pushed through the Straits of Hormuz. Will this be enough to cause significant problems ?
The path is the WORST case for storm surge !
The winds to the Northeast of the eye/storm track will be forcing water into a funnel. The outer winds at "just" 80 or so MPH, those closer in with even more force.
Alan
Really? What, no more oil to be had in the Gulf of Mexico?
More like the Saudis were willing to pay more money for the rigs and outbid everyone else.
I think you misunderstood. There are basically a number of different structures in the offshore oil business. The first is the drilling platform. This just drills holes. It does not produce the oil or have anything else to do with production. It is these hole drillers that have been moved to Saudi Arabia with the lure of more money over there than here.
But once the hole is drilled, a production platform is placed over the well (or more often, over several wells) and it collects the oil for either piping to the mainland or to be loaded onto ships for transfer to the mainland. These production platforms are still in the Gulf producing even as we write.
And note that not all drilling rigs have moved out of the Gulf, just a sizable fraction. There is still drilling occurring just at a greatly reduced rate from before.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Thanks for that!
Staring at the map, it appears to me any storm surge traveling up the Gulf is going to get worse and worse as it approaches the Straits of Hormuz from the outside. The Gulf of Oman is basically a funnel as you say, and it narrows to significantly less than the width of the storm, seemingly offering ample potential to concentrate the surge energy. So the worst affected resources would be those on the Omani or Iranian coasts close to the Straits of Hormuz, but on the outside of it.
Inside of the Straits, it seems like any surge will be spreading out from the restriction the Straits pose, and thus losing height/energy. So there will be less effect there.
Think of the volume of water being forced into the Persian Gulf over several days.
It is not kinetic energy, but potential energy.
Alan
The Persian Gulf is quite a bit bigger than the storm. Even if half the water in 15' surge under the storm made it into the Gulf (probably not likely), it seems to me it's only a few feet of (slow) rise up Gulf.
Conditions close to the Straits, however, would seem likely to get... interesting.
Stuart,
I do not see this as a "total volume under the cyclone" issue but as a rate x time issue. Thus What is the current through the Straits of Hormuz ? is of vital importance.
If Gonu stalled in the Arabian Sea for an extended period, she would pump water into the Persian Gulf until an equilibrium was reached.
In addition, early rains preceding Gonu will have a small impact of the level of the Persian Gulf.
You are correct that the impact will be a slow rise in water levels in the Upper Persian Gulf plus whatever wave action modest, tropical storm winds will create.
Alan
Yes, oil is produced offshore from Mumbai (aka Bombay). There are several oil rigs in that region and I think they produce most of India's oil & natural gas.
anyone have any linkable resources on this?
The "bad" part of the storm will still be the NE quad right? So, India, Pakistan, and Iran should also feel this a bit...even if there's no direct pop...?
Here is some information on the Bombay (Mumbai) High oil platform. It gives information regarding location, size, capacity, etc.
http://www.mace.manchester.ac.uk/project/research/structures/strucfire/C...
They had a pretty bad accident a couple of years ago when a ship collided with the platform.
Hello Suyog,
Thxs for the info. So, inquiring minds want to know: did the insurance companies do a 'hit' on the Captain later for screwing up so badly? =(
Cyclones are not unusual there, though, are they? I would think they'd be prepared to handle this.
Cyclones are very unusual in the Arabian sea which is along India's west coast. They are very common in the Bay of Bengal which is along India's east coast and south of Bangladesh.
Well,
the storm may have to negotiate these on its current track:
From Wiki: Geography of Oman:
The Jebel Akhdar, Jabal Akhdar or Djebel Akhdar (Arabic: الجبل الأخضر meaning The Green Mountain) is a mountain range in Oman, extending about 300 km northwest to southeast, between 50-100 km inland from the Gulf of Oman coast. The highest point, Jabal Shams (the mountain of the sun), is around 3,000 metres (around 9,800 feet) high [1]. It is the highest point in Oman and the whole of eastern Arabia. It comprises the central section of the Jebel Hajar range, and is located around 150 km from Muscat.
Methinks, off the top of my head, that even Cat 1 winds will wreak havoc wherever they appear. For those of you not familiar with hurricanes, Cat 1 is 74 mph sustained winds (120kmh). Add in the total lack of experience in dealing with this kind of storm, and the seemingly total surprise at its emergence, leaves me with the feeling we COULD be in some very deep trouble here.
Several factors to consider here, among them surge (mostly coastal in nature), rainfall runoff, and wind. I would be most concerned about runoff in the desert, especially in the Empty Quarter, e.g. Ghawar. I don't know the soil conditions there, but I can tell you, sand does not soak up water as quickly as you might think-having lived in Florida for a long time, I've seen typical thunderstorms wash away literally tons of sand, cars, trucks, roads, etc. Depending on what happens (and this is pure speculation) I wouldn't be surprised if a land-based pipeline or two broke in this storm, on top of any coastal damage.
This storm could get messy, real quick...
Franc (penguinzee)
http://www.imd.gov.in/main_new.htm
Indian Met Dept has a forecast as well. Go to the Cyclone page (link at lower left of main page). I'd post the forecast gif, but I don't know how.
Thanks for the tip.
<img src=urlOfImage>
Where you replace urlOfImage for the url of the image you want.