DrumBeat: June 11, 2007
Posted by Leanan on June 11, 2007 - 8:42am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Surprise: less oxygen could be just the trick
It was used by the people of the Amazon for thousands of years. Now Australian researchers say biochar could reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide - while providing a new source of energy, and boosting farm productivity....At Somersby, on the Central Coast, BEST Energies Australia, a company researching clean energy technology, has built a demonstration pyrolysis plant with the capacity to process 300 kilograms of dry green waste, wood waste, rice hulls, cow and poultry manure or paper mill waste every hour.
The material, says Adriana Downie, the company's technical manager, is heated at up to 550 degrees for 40 minutes.
During processing gases are released from the material which are cleaned and burned to produce energy. This gaseous biofuel is called syngas. "Syngas can be used as a replacement for natural gas or LPG in gas-fired boilers or dryers, or to produce electricity," says Downie.
The remaining black carbon-rich biochar can be used on farms.
The wrath of 2007: America's great drought
America is facing its worst summer drought since the Dust Bowl years of the Great Depression. Or perhaps worse still.From the mountains and desert of the West, now into an eighth consecutive dry year, to the wheat farms of Alabama, where crops are failing because of rainfall levels 12 inches lower than usual, to the vast soupy expanse of Lake Okeechobee in southern Florida, which has become so dry it actually caught fire a couple of weeks ago, a continent is crying out for water.
The revolution will not be blogged, either
In Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, Jared Diamond observes that the vast majority of technologies create more problems then they solve, and in the aggregate, technology virtually always fails to keep up with the unintended consequences it generates. The more we're able to do, the more net damage we do. He observes about people who advocate one or many technical solutions to our environmental problems all seem to be making the same basic error in reasoning.All of our current problems are unintended negative consequences of our existing technology. The rapid advances in technology during the 20th century have been creating difficult new problems faster than they have been solving old problems: that's why we're in the situation in which we now find ourselves. What makes you think that, as of January 1 2006, for the first time in human history, technology will miraculously stop causing new unanticipated problems while it just solves the problems it previously produced? (Diamond, 505)
Battle Over Bush Oil Law Proposal
The threat of violence is of course a major concern for Iraqis, but so too is how to handle the country's oil resources. The Bush administration claims its plan to privatize production is the best way to rebuild Iraq's infrastructure. But representatives from Iraq's oil industry say the plan gives too much control to foreign interests. They're touring California right now to convey that message.Most of the Iraqi oil wells which were destroyed during the first Gulf War and in the past four years may soon be under foreign control. A law backed by the Bush administration and now in Iraq's parliament would give control of the majority of these fields to foreign oil companies for about 30 years.
Bodman: U.S. energy's future presents a powerful challenge
President Bush's 2005 Energy Act authorized the U.S. Department of Energy to designate special corridors where there was energy congestion, where the federal government's siting laws for transmission lines could supersede those of states.
Putin: Russia favors strategic dialogue between energy suppliers, consumers
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday that Russia, as a guarantor of energy supply to the world market, favors strategic dialogue between energy suppliers and consumers."Presently, we can see the emergence of not only new major consumers such as China and India, but also new producers on the Eurasian landmass," Putin told a plenary session of the 11th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum with the theme of "A competitive Eurasia - Expanse for trust."
Oil slip: India on slippery track?
India, which imports two-thirds of its crude oil requirements to meet domestic demand, faces a big challenge in coping with oil shocks and supply disruptions. Crude oil is already heading north and trading above $71 per barrel. Fears of an attack on Iran by the US or Israel and reports of Turkish troops entering Iraq are keeping prices volatile.
Korea grows more dependent on Gulf oil
South Korea has grown more dependent on the Gulf states for oil imports over the last decade despite its bid to diversify, according to a US Department of Energy report.Seventy-five percent of the country's imports last year came from the Gulf region, with Saudi Arabia the single-largest source by supplying 29% of South Korea's oil purchases, according to analysis for June.
Gazprom close to signing deal that will increase its UK customer base
Alexander Medvedev told reporters at an economic forum in St Petersburg: "In the near future there will a deal to further increase the customer base on the British market. Anyone who will be in London for the Wimbledon tennis tournament will know about it." Wimbledon fortnight starts on June 25.
Ikea shines low-energy light on environmental concerns
As part of its strategy to improve its environmental credentials, the Swedish furnishing group plans to give each of its 9,600 British employees six low-energy light bulbs, which it will replace for nothing once they stop working after about five years.
Sizzling weather challenges Beijing's energy-saving goals
Beijing's power supply network is groaning under the strain this week as more families and businesses are forced to switch on the air conditioners in the early summer heat.The city's peak electricity demand hit 10.51 million kilowatts at 3:50 p.m. on Friday, the highest so far this year, said sources with the Beijing Electric Power Corporation.
Malaysia defends palm oil production
Malaysia, one of the world’s leading growers of palm oil, has hit back at allegations that Europe's growing use of "green" fuels will increase the destruction of rainforests and great apes, such as the orang utan.
For years, when there was a spike in energy prices, industry spokesmen were trotted out to claim that, after adjusting for inflation, it wasn’t really all that bad.Well, you can toss that talking point into the circular file. Inflation-adjusted gasoline prices are blowing past the 1981 record.
Allow me to suggest that we dispense with the usual Kabuki theater, with news interviews of angry drivers at the pump, members of Congress vowing to outlaw price gouging and the White House asking the Federal Trade Commission to do yet another study.
Instead, I lay on the table a modest proposal: Put the government into the oil business.
Why is peak oil politically incorrect?
Don't you feel at times that peak oil is not only ignored by the media but that it is, actually, politically incorrect? I got this distinct feeling after that, at a recent conference, a member of the Italian parliament spoke after me and said he didn't believe a word of what I had said because “oil prices have gone down.” It is difficult to quantify political incorrectness, but the graph [below] does tell us that, of the two major issues that we are facing nowadays, global warming beats peak oil hands down.
Government statistics show poverty has declined during Chavez’s eight years in office, and he rattled off lists of other improvements, from hospitals to new roads.But his opponents charge he has accomplished little considering the billions of dollars in oil proceeds flowing into the country.
Turkey not done with the Kurds
There is indeed a new ground situation. A Kurdish terrorist wave is once again sweeping across Turkey, reminiscent of the scale of violence 10 years ago. The Turkish military is taking heavy casualties. Popular feelings are running high all over Anatolia and tremendous anger is building up within the Turkish military.
Vinod Khosla, a Silicon Valley legend, is leading the venture capital rush into replacements for gasoline: biofuels made from corn and rougher stuff like switchgrass. But if prices fall and political subsidies vanish, the bubble may burst.
CNBC's Yergin: Russia Attracting More Western Companies
The Putin Administration continues to be intent on revising to one degree or another the oil and gas deals that were done in the middle 1990s. The actual rewriting varies from one deal to the next. So you don't see the same kind of enthusiasm in energy that is evident in other sectors. There's a lot of uncertainty, frustration, and pessimism about policy, decision-making and about the role of foreign capital in the energy sector. Also, exploration and development costs have been rising substantially in Russia, as elsewhere, but, at least in the mature region of West Siberia, this goes unrecognized by the very high tax rate.. Yet the resource potential is so great that the major companies can't easily stand aside. There are two critical things that they are waiting for, both of which are promised by the end of the year. One is the definition of "strategic sectors" and how those sectors will be managed -- in which oil and gas are at the top of the list. The other are the "rules of the road" for exploration and development in the off-shore and Artic, which will be high cost, challenging technically, but are very high potential.
Kurt Cobb - The official story: A lesson in how to undermine it
The peak oil movement has been focused mainly on selling a new narrative to the public without first dislodging the existing one. As long as people have faith in the existing official story about achieving American "energy independence" within the framework of a cornucopian future, it will be almost impossible to sell them on another story no matter how carefully constructed and supported.
Towards a true price for energy
The answer lies in that overworked word, "externalities". If widget manufacturers underestimate the demand for widgets there will be a temporary "widget problem", but the economy will carry on.A miscalculation on the energy front will, however, have a pervasive effect, irrespective of whether it comes through as sky-high prices or physical shortages. If a global slump is induced, the main harm will be felt far outside the energy industries.
‘Turkey must act before energy crisis strikes’
Turkish Union of Engineers and Architects’ Chambers (TMMOB) Chairman Emin Koramaz has said Turkey will face an energy shortage in the near future unless the necessary measures are rapidly taken into consideration.
Bush immigration failure hurts Mexico's Calderon
Apart from the drug war, Calderon's other main push is for economic reforms. A former energy minister, he wants to allow more private companies into Mexico's closed oil sector and U.S. firms would benefit.But any hint of foreigners taking control of Mexico's oil raises nationalist hackles, even though the government has no plans to privatize state energy monopoly Pemex.
Looser immigration laws in the United States might help Calderon gain an energy reform sought by Washington.
Mexico taking a lead role in global warming fight
Mexican leaders are starting to concede that they can no longer overlook that their nation contributes to the causes and suffers the pain of climate change.
Job #1 for Indiana Checkoff: Ethanol Education
While there are many areas in which the Hoosier corn industry needs to catch up, none is more glaring than consumer education. I am referring specifically to education about ethanol. The new law mandates that a portion of the checkoff dollars be used to increase the number of E85 pumps in the state. While this is certainly needed, it is only half the battle. Compared to other states, Indiana consumers are woefully ignorant about ethanol - how to buy it, where to buy it, and why to buy it.
Peak oil means inevitably higher prices
There are several reasons why gasoline prices are rising. The underlying reason is that world oil extraction is peaking. The oil companies know this. That is why they have not been building more refineries; they know that there will be less oil to refine in the years ahead.
Top scientist says biofuels are scam
THE government’s policy of promoting biofuels for transport will come under harsh attack this week from one of its senior science advisers.Roland Clift will tell a seminar of the Royal Academy of Engineering that the plan to promote bioethanol and biodiesel produced from plants is a “scam”.
Kuwait: Oil sector essential to avert power cuts
Kuwait's Ministry of Oil stressed on Sunday the significant role by the oil sector for apportioning electricity consumption in the country so as to avert power cuts during the summer.
Oil prices rise after Iranian oil minister says OPEC has no immediate plan to release more oil
Oil prices rose Monday after Iran's oil minister said OPEC has no plans to release more oil into the market ahead of its next policy meeting in September.
Saudi maintains Asia oil supply curbs for July
Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia told Asian lifters to expect the same crude volume for July as they have been getting since April, showing no signs of boosting production to soften prices near $70 a barrel.Saudi Arabia will supply crude oil to Japan and South Korea at about 9,5-10,0% below contracted volumes in July, the same as June, two Japanese industry sources and one South Korean source said today.
Why is Oil Refinery Utilization Down?
On Wednesday, the market seemed to be keying on the 3.5 million barrel increase in gasoline stocks -- more than double what analysts expected. July gasoline prices responded by falling around 1%, but the more interesting stat was the one concerning gasoline refining. Refinery utilization, which normally hovers in the 95% range this time of year, is currently just under 90%. In fact, it's at the lowest level for early summer in 15 years. Lower even than 2006, when the refiners were still trying to recover from Hurricane Katrina.What the heck?
Gas prices post first decline since January
The national average price for gasoline dropped 7 cents in the last three weeks, according to a nationwide survey released Sunday that marked the first decline since January.
Iran to build five new refineries across Asia
Oil-rich Iran Monday announced it will help build five new refineries across Asia with a total capacity of 1.1 million barrels per day in a bid to strengthen ties in the region.
Lawmakers want Capitol to go green
Congress says it is going to join the war against global warming by cleaning up its own backyard, now cluttered with a coal-burning power plant, a fleet of fuel-inefficient vehicles and old-fashioned lights.
When Americans elected a Democratic Congress last November, they were voting to end politics as usual and special interest legislation. On the vital issues of energy independence and global warming they are not only in danger of getting more of the same but also, unless Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic leaders step forward, winding up in worse shape than they were under the Republicans.
Britons Urged to Leave Niger Delta Amid Kidnap Fears
Britain has advised its nationals in the Niger Delta area of Nigeria to get out due to the worsening security situation and repeated kidnappings."We advise that the security situation in Bayelsa, Delta and Rivers states makes them unsafe for British nationals. We therefore advise British nationals to leave," the Foreign Office said.
"If you stay, you do so at your own risk and should take professional security advice," Britons were warned.
The mainstream food economy is heavily dependent on petroleum -- used in conventional fertilizer and pesticides as well as for cultivation and transportation -- which the world has in limited supply. It stands to reason that sooner or later, the world will run out of major new oil reserves to exploit; oil production will "peak" and start dropping. People in Vermont and across the country who subscribe to the "peak oil" notion are betting on "sooner," and they've started giving serious thought to reorganizing their lives in the face of a huge, impending spike in the price of gasoline and fuel oil.
We still haven't found what we're looking for
What will the G8 do if the believers in peak oil are right and shortages of easily obtainable crude lead to oil prices going up to $100 a barrel? What will happen if the decision by central banks to raise interest rates leads to a credit crunch and sends financial markets into a tailspin? Is the global economy vulnerable to the activities of hedge funds, with speculation being all that really makes the world go round? And is there really no contradiction between growth and the future of the planet?
There is some refinery expansion occurring. In the U.S. it is easier to expand an existing facility than to get government approval for a new facility.
Marathon has planned an expansion of its Garyville refinery by 180,000 barrels.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4200/is_20070308/ai_n18712309
Currently refinery utilization rates around the world were high. By one scenario oil production will rise faster than refinery expansion, by a different scenario oil production will fall and refinery utilization rates will shrink.
The article doesn't say, but the reason for the expansion could be that they're adding capacity to process heavy sour crude. Not that they believe total oil production will rise.
My understanding is that expansion means exactly what it says and that changing from processing light sweet crude to heavy sour crude is less an act of expansion than of reconfiguration.
Perhaps Robert or Heading Out can shed some light here?
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Robert has said many times that he doesn't see that the US is processing more heavy sour crude than we did 10 years ago, so I believe he doesn't think it's a factor.
I think it makes intuitive sense that we are producing more heavy sour than we used to. This would explain why we have large stocks of crude, many refinery maintenance problems, lower refinery capacity, and more expensive gasoline. Robert doesn't seem to buy it and he has found no stats to really support this idea.
My understanding is that the transition to ULSD (Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel) has lead to more breakdowns. Apparently the process to remove Sulphur involves some pretty maintenance intensive equipment, and when that goes down they have to shut down the refinery to fix it. That is one of the more reasonable explanations I have heard.
Oh and more happy news on the Diesel front, most diesel engine manufacturers are going to SCR (Selective Catalyst Reduction) to meet the 2010 NOx standards. Part of the SCR process includes injecting Urea into the exhaust stream. Unfortunately Urea is derived from Natural Gas.
Yeah, that actually does sound reasonable though again it would be nice if someone can confirm or otherwise explain.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Robert has said many times that he doesn't see that the US is processing more heavy sour crude than we did 10 years ago, so I believe he doesn't think it's a factor
One more time, this is not what I said. There is a clear trend toward heaving and more sour crudes in the past 10 years. My point is that the quality has been relatively stable for a least a few years. In other words, we didn't suddenly develop refinery problems because we are suddenly processing poorer quality crude. The crude quality is almost identical to what it was 2 years ago. That's according to the EIA statistics.
OK, sorry and apologies, but still the EIA stats are not showing a sudden drop in quality of crude entering the US refineries.
Wish I knew what percentage of the refineries in the US could handle what levels of crude quality and what kind of runs they've been using in the last three years. It would be interesting to look at it on a refinery by refinery basis to see if there are any patterns.
The API blogger calls recently discussed that. It is FAR cheaper and years faster to expand existing refineries than to build new refineries. They were saying they added something like the equivalent of 3 new refineries over past ten years by expansion. [check my numbers] Still, I think the point that there will be less oil in the future must play in that. Somewhere I saw an article that oil tankers were not being built for that reason.
cfm in Gray, ME
10 new refineries in 10 years. Total capacity increase of 2 million bpd.
Saudi Arabia Maintains Supply Restrictions to Asia
In the same article it states that Iran will soon begin rationing gasoline. It really does not seem to add up.
The thing is the Iranians don't have enough refineries to process enough gasoline themself, and it takes years to build new ones.
So they export oil and import gasoline, but because gasoline is subsidised, this is a huge expence to the Iranian government. This is the reason for the rationing scheme, otherwise they would have to cut the subsidies, which could lead to unrest.
This is my favorite line in that article-
"Iran's Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh said there's no shortage of crude oil globally and the high oil price is because of low product stockpiles. Iran, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, will start gasoline rationing ``very shortly,'' he said after attending the Asia Oil and Gas Conference in Kuala Lumpur today."
I don't think Woody Allen could've written that better...
penguinzee,
I don't really see a contradiction. What is in short supply is the cheaply refined light, sweet crude, and the gasoline used in the United States. Oil companies, whether national or private, produce and sell the oil that is most easily sold and cheapest to produce first. So whats left is oil that comes out of the ground more slowly because of high viscosity, or has high sulfur content, or both. It brings less money because it costs more to refine.
The other problem with a quote like that is translation. To be translated accurately the translator must be very familiar with oil production and refining. And, the more languages the translation has to go through the more errors are multiplied.
According to the EIA Iranian gasoline consumption is expected to rise 11.4% in a year. They have limited refinery capacity and bought gasoline from Europe.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Iran/Oil.html
They have undeveloped large fields, yet the decline rate for their existing fields was estimated as 8-10%.
Iranians got subsidized gasoline for 30-38 cents a gallon, thus the decision to ration is in lieu of free market economics.
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2007/05/28/iranian_gas_price_hik...
Sopranos and Peak Oil (sort of).
Last night, in the final espisode of the Sopranons, A.J., Tony's son, is making love in his SUV. In the middle of the, uh, session, a grass fire caused by the SUV burns up the SUV.
Needless to say, in a later scene A.J.'a parents are pissed and tell him he can't have another SUV. A.J. says that's great because "we need to do something about our dependence upon foreign oil". He tells them that from now on he is going to take public transportation.
The end of the show's credits list TOD. :<)
Elsewhere during the show, Tony's arch nemesis gets wacked as he gets out of his giant SUV. The SUV later rolls over his head, perhaps a hidden message of some kind.
I'm sure the bright minds here at TOD could deconstruct not only this episode but the whole series as it relates to peak oil, death, and the American way.
The reason the world is in trouble is that reality is created by TV.
My advice (when they ask for it, and don't just demand the latest pill hawked by the tube) to my depressed and insomniac patients: "Get off the tube, and start talking to your friends and neighbors. Get out of your car and start walking around your neighborbood."
That would make an enormous amount of difference in decreased energy use and decreased depressive illness for a start.
Good riddance to the Sopranos. Now if Paris Hilton would only grow up and join Code Pink....
On that note,
A Sunday Afternoon in New Orleans
I drove to the Marigny and parked to go to the New Orleans Seafood Festival + Creole Tomato Festival + Zydeco Festival (buses run every 30 minutes to 1 hour on Sundays post-K. RT distance was 5.1 miles. Before K I took the streetcar). Meet and chatted with two people I knew plus assorted strangers (I wore my FEMA Sucks/Katrina Blows T-Shirt which always starts a conversation). Enjoyed char broiled oysters, crab cakes, crawfish pasta in cream sauce & bread pudding with beer and the music.
Went by French Market, saw my long lost tie-dyer (dread locks black guy, been to his home once for dinner), caught up with him post-K (my Mardi Gras costume is tie die in MG colors of Green, Gold & Purple, topped off with underwear briefs (band inverted underneath) formed as a beret). Prepaid him $25 and used the receipt to get 5 lbs of Creole tomatoes (deal for Festival).
Stopped by Cafe du Monde for a fix of beignets & chicory coffee (I am addicted). Listened to good, mainly blues, sidewalk singer. Tipped her $5.
Walked around Jackson Square talked to fortune teller I have known for years (also checked in with him). Then walked to 8th District Police Station to make contribution to fix their broken a/c. Talked with cops a bit.
Drove home, walked to Sophie's Ice cream. I was going to do a "contrast & compare" between Strawberry sorbet and strawberry gelato, but both had sold out earlier that day (she checked and new flavors to be made today did not include either :-( So I had a double scoop of papaya sorbet :-)
A group of ten high school volunteers fresh from Los Angeles came in and counter girl and I had a good time alternatively scaring them (I can tell that you are fresh, no cuts or scrapes and you do not have that slave labor camp look) and fascinating them with stories of underage drinking. New Orleans parties, music etc.
If chaperon will allow them, I will take them out (my treat) to Port of Call for a $10 hamburger and Donna's for jazz and a beer.
Who needs TV ?
Best Hopes for REAL Living,
Alan
PS: Was planning to go see Amanda Shaw at Rock N/ Bowl (Bowling alley with live music, beer, food) but was too fagged by heat, etc. to go. I have been watching her fiddle since age 14. Quite the zydeco girl ! (Think improved Bluegrass with spice in French & English)
http://www.amandashaw.com/AmandaShaw/Welcome.html
I recently picked up this tee-shirt in Nawlins:
Paulie the good soldier lives for the big screen version.
The Energy Bulletin article by Kurt Cobb linked above is extremly interesting. It says we don't have to argue the facts of Peak Oil to get people to start changing, but rather to discredit them in as many ways as possible.
As nonsensical as this sounds, its right. The cornucopians are actively trying to discredit us by calling us cultists.They have attacked the climate change scientists in this manner, and it delayed our societies recognition of the problem for 10 years. The Iron Triangle uses this often!
My best idea is to attack the current focus on the basis of costs-even if they use coal-to-liquids, mine bitumen in Alberta and Kerogen in Colorado-average people can't afford it. Argueing with them on the basis of supply, or their lies in calling ethanol and synthetic crude helps too.
The protesters at the G8 summit, want the 'rich' countries to send more aid to the poor ones (how anyone can think countries that runup huge deficits year after year are rich is beyond me).
This would not help, it would only create more inflation. The problem is not one of not enough money, but of to many people having to share not enough resources. Nature will eventually solve this problem for us, and not in a nice way.
This is why we're called cultists, because we do not believe in magic, regardless of whether the magic goes under the name of human innovation or the invisible hand of the market.
The irony, and this relates to the article, is that the protesters share this flaw with the leaders of the G8 they're protesting against, and with most people on the planet. They will not live within their means. If they did people would not take on so much debt, governments would not run deficits in peacetime, and the protesters would not think that loose monetary policy is a solution rather than a problem.
My message is not a good one. I believe the reason people will not listen to the peak oil message is because they no longer have any real idea of what money is. How can you expect a person who is used to paying his bills with a credit card to understand the concept of finite resources.
Yes. Discrediting official cornucopians has long been a large part of the discussions here at TOD. The problem is how to break them out into the official media. Cobb compares the PO issue with the Truth In 911 movement. But PO's discrediting of bogus energy solutions will be a much tougher sell for 2 reasons: 1)Energy directly and intimately affects peoples' lives in a way political conspiracies don't, and they know it. So they truly don't want to hear more...the ostrich response. 2)The Ruling Kleptocracy's propaganda machine - also known as the MSM - allows a little steam to escape (see Libby, Vioxx, perpheral 911 and Iraq War issues) but the day it can no longer hide the truth on bogus energy sources, and on appalling health issues such as Thimerosal and Codex Alimentarius, will be the day the MSM has been freed or destroyed by total sociopolitical collapse. Energy (their continued propfit) is the issue that drives all of TBTB's actions, and so they will try to hide PO until their very last breath.
Therefore Cobb's strategy will have to be sown and grown totally outside of the MSM. That requires, for us, continued growth of the internet news culture. And conversely it requires, for our Masters, a concerted, crash effort to control the internet and turn it into another arm of the propaganda machine.
Cobb compares the PO issue with the Truth In 911 movement.
Uh oh. Does this mean that in 5 years when the gasoline prices are outrageous---OPEC cutting exports due to some political excuse covering up geological peaking---and getting worse, the underground meme will be: It's the Jews' fault.
Let's hope not.
It's the Jews' fault.
Yup. But its really the Zionists with a transfer of power from the Bavarian Illumanti using the FBI's connection to the Boy Sprouts and the Orbital Mind Control Lasers.
That's good stuff. I better phone up Alex Jones and let him know right away :^)
No; it will be the Muslim's fault. And it won't be underground.
Why should we do anything? PO will be obvious soon to the cornucopians.
In my opinion we're already seeing the effects of peak oil and what's to come just reinforces the fact that we've reached it. I've asked before why peak oil needs to be subscribed to by the masses. The answers I've received are that we need to affect a change in the populace to avoid peak oil and that preparing people for peak oil will make things go more smoothly.
I believe Mother Nature has a plan and we are just flies in her jar. Organized and aware flies reach the same fate as disorganized and unaware flies, especially when both groups of flies are already at overshoot. The historical events may vary slightly between the two groups, but in the end all the flies are laying at the bottom of the jar.
I visit TOD because I'm fascinated to know more about this unique time in human history. But advocating that the masses must know that we're right and they're wrong is just another way to massage the ego.
Humbly,
Tom A-B
Swede says
" PO will be obvious soon to the cornucopians."
Now when you say "soon", how do you define what the meaning of "soon" is?
Or as Bill Clinton said, "it depends on what the meaning of 'is" is," :-)
(for those of us who have been looking for it since 1978, inquiring minds want to know!)
RC
Roger,
What do you (or anyone else ) know of the Gull Island AK oil ?
I came across the 8 part youtube video of a guy, Lindsey Williams (The Energy Non-Crisis) who says there is plenty of oil there.
There is plenty of meat (Williams) for the meat-grinder in this instance ;)
Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?
Here
it is !
ThatsItImout
I define soon, within two years. Matt Simmons to name one more in the know than me, has said, that PO will within 1-2 years overshadow GW in the media. I believe he is thrustworthy enough for me.
We have to do something, because if we do nothing we allow them to obfuscate the issue (and profit from it) for even longer.
Consider the dilemma faced by free-market people in the face of Global Warming. The majority of them have been dismissing GW for years, allowing a set of socialist, crypto-Marxist and borderline human extinctionists to set the narrative. Now that the issue is becoming undeniable, many free-marketers are still denying GW, not because they have any doubts about the evidence, but because they do not have a proposal with the mindshare to compete with the socialists and Marxists.
It's the fallacy of argument from consequences, but you'll see it in almost that many words regardless.
It's up to us to make sure that there's a competing idea of the future which people know about and can sign up to.
Consider the dilemma faced by free-market people in the face of Global Warming.
You missed the one where they FIND A free market.
Not certain what you mean but I take it that so called free marketers are so taken by their rigid ideology that they don't want to address global warming because it just might not be solved with pure free market solutions. So they have made the science fit the ideology. They must resist belief in global warming because seriously addressing it would require what they perceive as "socialist" solutions.
For some sense of clarity, we must define socialism. In the mean time, if every attempt to influence people's behavior to use less energy is branded as socialism or crypto Marxim, then we are truly screwed.
For the pragmatists amongst us, we will support any combination of free enterprise, capitalism, or socialism that has promise of getting the job done. When you careening over a cliff, you don't worry about which ideology will save you from doing so.
My competing idea of the future is to have a future.
Their are people from various ideological perspectives who use global warming as an opportunity to push their ideology. On the other hand, there are those of us who are just concerned with its impacts --- period.