DrumBeat: June 14, 2007

20 years later, we still have 40 years of oil left

BP Statistical Review of World Energy released a report that estimated there are enough world petroleum reserves to last for 40 years, assuming we consume at our current rates. The article notes that in the 1980’s the amount of proven reserves was also 40 years. 20 years go by, consumption rates change, new customers change, new oil fields are found, old ones produce more, and voila, is we’re good to go for another 40 years of oil.

Michael Klare: The Pentagon v. Peak Oil

Sixteen gallons of oil. That's how much the average American soldier in Iraq and Afghanistan consumes on a daily basis -- either directly, through the use of Humvees, tanks, trucks, and helicopters, or indirectly, by calling in air strikes. Multiply this figure by 162,000 soldiers in Iraq, 24,000 in Afghanistan, and 30,000 in the surrounding region (including sailors aboard U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf) and you arrive at approximately 3.5 million gallons of oil: the daily petroleum tab for U.S. combat operations in the Middle East war zone.


Hubbert's Peak, The Question of Coal, and Climate Change

Currently there is a vigorous debate about fossil-fuel production, and whether it will be sufficient in the future. At the same time, there is an intense effort to predict the contribution to future climate change that will result from consuming this fuel. There has been surprisingly little effort to connect these two. Do we have a fossil-fuel supply problem? Do we have a climate-change problem? Do we have both? Which comes first? We will see that trends for future fossil-fuel production are less than any of the 40 UN scenarios considered in climate-change assessments. The implication is that producer limitations could provide useful constraints in climate modeling. We will also see that the time constants for fossil-fuel exhaustion are about an order of magnitude smaller than the time constants for sea level and sea-level change. This means that to lessen the effects of climate change associated with future fossil-fuel use, reducing ultimate production is more important than slowing it down.


Mexico oil output drop may spark crisis

Declining oil output in Mexico could spark a major fiscal crisis there, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday, while also railing against US immigration policy.

"There is no doubt that Mexican overall (oil) production is down and if it continues down, and prices don't continue up to offset that, then there is a huge fiscal crisis pending," the former US central banker said via a video link to a business conference in Mexico City.


What's in the Energy Bill?

The controversial energy bill now on the Senate floor takes a different approach than the bill pushed through by a Republican Senate in 2005. That measure sought to increase domestic oil production through subsidies and other incentives. With Democrats now in charge, the new bill focuses on decreasing consumption of oil and gasoline.


Winter heating oil import dependence set to jump

The U.S. energy industry has sharply reduced its production of heating oil in favor of cleaner, higher-profit fuels like diesel -- a move that could see the nation relying more heavily on imports next winter heating season, analysts said Wednesday.


Roscoe Bartlett: Commemorating Admiral Rickover's 1957 speech on energy

Mr. Speaker, this is really a very important day in our history. Exactly 50 years ago today in St. Paul, MN, Admiral Hyman Rickover gave a very famous speech. In a few moments, I will have here a copy of that speech, and I want to spend most of the hour that we have this evening going over that speech, because he was amazingly prophetic. This was a speech given to a group of physicians, and it was about energy. Of course, his primary interest was nuclear energy, and this was a speech about energy in general.


Pickens wants to build world's largest wind farm

Billionaire T. Boone Pickens is planning to cash in on the wind energy boom by building the world's largest wind farm in West Texas.

The oil tycoon wants to install large wind turbines in parts of four Panhandle counties in a project that would produce up to 4,000 megawatts of electricity, Pickens spokesman Mike Boswell said Wednesday.


Why did the Soviet Union fall?

In a simplified way, the story of the collapse of the Soviet Union could be told as a story about grain and oil.


Outside View: Iran`s oil weapon

There is no doubting the strengthening energy ties between Iran and China, whose imports of Iranian crude have risen by 14 percent in the first four months of this year from last year`s figures, at a time when China is deliberately trying to curb its appetite for imported oil. The growing cooperation in oil follows the dramatic $70 billion deal that China`s giant Sinopec Group made with Iran to buy 250 million tons of liquefied natural gas over 30 years from Iran and develop the giant Yadavaran field.

In this context, it is not easy to see China approving severe sanctions against Iran at the U.N. Security Council. And given India`s equal hunger for imported oil and gas, and the current discussions between Indian and Iranian officials over a gas pipeline from Iran through Pakistan, it is not easy to see India throwing its weight behind sanctions, despite the close strategic ties that have been forged between New Delhi and Washington.


Emissions scheme "seriously undermined", says WWF

The conservation group WWF said that while the mechanism of carbon trading was sound in principle, the way the first phase of the scheme, running from 2005-2007, had been handled meant no reductions will have been achieved.


Aura Green Line: GM's hybrid cost cutter

Saturn's hybrid sedan costs less than other hybrid cars, but it's not worth as much either.


Consumers Plan to Employ Gas-Saving Tips to Achieve Greater Fuel Economy According to New Study

With gas prices on the rise this summer, there is no shortage of fuel economy advice available to consumers who want to save a few dollars at the pump. Drivers are often encouraged to improve their vehicle's fuel economy by reducing air conditioning use, changing filters regularly, checking tire pressure, having fuel injectors cleaned and using a fuel additive to increase engine performance. But how likely are consumers to actually use any of these gas-saving tips to help save money?


Kuwait seeks Calgary's help

State-owned Kuwait Oil Co. is looking to enlist the knowledge and expertise of Calgary-based firms to help in the development of its heavy-oil reserves with a goal of producing a total of 900,000 barrels per day by 2020, a senior KOC official told the Calgary Herald on Wednesday.


Bleak forecast for global business

Liquid fuel shortages, massive unemployment, high interest rates and severe recession.

Those are just some of the bleak prospects ahead for the global economy as our energy supplies dry up, according to a keynote speaker at the Smart 2007 supply chain conference to be held in Sydney next week.


A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash (review)

The problems Hubbert foresaw are compounded at every turn. There's the new-found need for oil of developing nations that once managed without it; or that none of the alternative energy sources is even nearly as useful as oil; or that no one would vote for a truthful politician who might help effect change, because the truth involves much higher petrol prices and the likelihood of a depression worse than the one in the 1930s.


Cuba's Castro Almost Fully Recovered, Chavez Says

Chavez said his country's natural gas had been "kidnapped" by the U.S., whose President George W. Bush he blamed for triggering a "global energy crisis." Chavez also criticized U.S. attempts to help replace part of its gasoline needs with biofuels as "insane," echoing Castro's statements opposing the use of food crops for fuel.


Baltics need investment to avoid electricity crisis

"In 2010, if we don't make additional investments, the Baltic states will become an energy-deficit region."


Death toll reaches 289 in sizzling Pakistan

At least 57 more people died across Pakistan due to exposure to intense heat, raising the death toll to at least 289, media reports said on Thursday.

...People battled the sizzling temperatures amid frequent power outages as the country was facing its worst ever energy crisis, with electricity demand exceeding the supply by 2,900 megawatts.

Violent protests were staged in the port city of Karachi, where a major fault in one of the electricity generating units caused power cuts that continued in some cases for 12 hours.


Pakistan: Citizens ‘shed’ anger, protest load shedding

The city witnessed riots, Wednesday as well, in protest against the unannounced load shedding of electricity.

The residents and shopkeepers, enraged with power outages, protested against the KESC by burning tires on roads and as a result, traffic was blocked for several hours.


Paksitan: Shortage of power reaches 2900MW

The countrywide electricity shortage is learnt to have increased to about 2,900MW owing mainly to continued closure of about 25 generating units across the country, adding to the misery of consumers in the sizzling temperatures.

“This is the worst energy crisis in Pakistan’s history. Accounting for almost 20 per cent of the requirement, the gap between demand and supply is even higher than the 10 per cent shortfall faced in the early 1990s,” a senior Wapda official told Dawn.


Pakistan Govt to exercise options of taking control of KESC if power crisis not overcome

Federal Minister for Water and Power Liaqat Jatoi Wednesday told the National Assembly that if Karachi Electricity Supply Company fails to control the energy crisis than the government has alternate options to take control of the corporation.


Is a federal RPS the answer?

The renewable portfolio standard amendment, put forward by Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., and Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., would set a national renewable energy target of 15 percent by 2030.


Scientist not all doom and gloom about climate response

The crowd nudged Alley out of his scientific cloister, asking him to recommend policies for addressing the threat that climate change presents.

Moving away from our dependence on fossil fuels for energy is an essential first step, he said. "We have to change anyway. The oil companies are very smart, and they can see peak oil from here."


Can green computers help save the world?

Computer makers are waking up to the fact that their products emit as much CO2 as aviation.


All Hail the Washing Machine

Proselytizing for suburban sprawl, Reagan administration veteran Ron Utt was once quoted in The New York Times denying that the sedentary lifestyle of suburbia contributes to obesity. Instead Utt points his finger at the washing machine, arguing, "you're fat for a lot of reasons, like the fact that you don't do laundry by hand."

It's just like a Heritage Foundation fellow to romanticize the days when soiled clothing was laboriously beaten with a paddle, scrubbed on a washboard, and then hung out to dry. It was women who did that work, both for their own families and as wage workers. And as anti-sprawl author James Howard Kunstler points out in Geography of Nowhere, it is women who so often get stuck shuttling children to and fro five times a day in our sprawling, car-dependent suburbs. The landscape of the 1950s all too often promotes the values of the 1950s.


Costs don’t stop drivers from going it alone: More than ever commute solo as suburbanites can’t change habits

WASHINGTON - More people than ever are driving alone to work as the nation's commuters balk at carpools and mass transit.

Regardless of fuel prices, housing and work patterns make it hard for suburban commuters to change their gas-guzzling ways.

...For most suburban commuters, "it's very hard to find someone to ride with, and it's very hard to find public transportation," said Alan Pisarski, author of "Commuting in America." "There aren't always a lot of options for people."


We're doing it to ourselves on oil, says Pickens

We have a tremendous demand in the United States. The United States uses 25 percent of the 85 million barrels used daily, and we have less than 5 percent of the population. So when you start to look around at who's doing it, we're doing it to ourselves. We are the ones that are using it, and we're the ones that are driving up the price.


Russia to Pump Up Oil Production by 2010

Russia will increase by 2010 its extraction of oil to 10 million 600 thousand barrels per day, according to data of the International Energy Agency (IEA) released here on Wednesday.

According to those estimates, Russian crude production could decline in 2012 to 10.5 million barrels per day.


US House Panel OKs Bill That Slows Oil, Gas Development Permitting

The U.S. House of Representatives Natural Resources Committee Wednesday passed a broad energy bill that includes provisions that repeal laws designed to accelerate the oil and gas permitting process.

Industry groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Petroleum Institute, say they fear the bill could stunt domestic oil and gas production.


Industry watchers fear ethanol oversupply - Fast expansion, distribution issues could doom alternative energy boom

Lehman Brothers analysts estimated the surplus at about 1 million gallons per day starting in the second half of 2007. The firm’s report attributed part of that to the ethanol plant construction boom, but said transportation bottlenecks are a bigger problem.

Ethanol is produced mainly in the Midwest and has to be moved to coastal markets by train or truck since pipelines don’t exist, said Michael Waldron, a co-author of the report.

“The supply is coming online and there isn’t really an efficient way to get it to the demand centers on the East and West Coasts,” he said.


Venezuela to Seize 26 Oil Rigs, Equipment in Next Few Months

Venezuela will take back a total of 26 oil drills and related equipment in the next few months that had been leased to outside companies, an executive from state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, or PdVSA, said Tuesday.

"It's 26 (rigs) that we will be nationalizing that are now in the hands of third parties," Jose Luis Parada, general exploration manager for PdVSA's western division, said on the sidelines of the 18th Annual Latin American Petroleum Show in Maracaibo.

He said the move, which includes hiring the rig operators, will consolidate the government's hold on the oil business.


James Woolsey on ending the oil era

Reliance on oil is a major environmental concern among industrialized nations, particularly the United States, which uses and imports more oil than any other country. Oil dependency is emerging as a major national security issue as well.

Last fall, we asked former CIA director James Woolsey for his take on ending the oil era.


The scramble for Africa's oil

Within a decade, the US will be heavily dependent on African oil. Little wonder the Pentagon is preparing a strategy for the region.


Re-evolution and the Steady State of M. King Hubbert

Integrity, intellectual honesty, courage, focus, foresight, leadership, belief in the goodness of the American people. These are descriptions that spring to mind when thinking of M. King Hubbert. He was a visionary who believed in the power of ideas and the need to use intellectual rigour to analyse and manage change. As a research geophysicist he understood the problems posed by the reality of peak oil and the cultural catastrophe that lay before humanity unless it realised the non-recurring historical nature of the growth phenomenon.


Hertz, Avis add hybrids to fleets

In an apparent race to be seen as the greenest company in the industry, car rental giants Hertz and Avis are adding thousands of new, fuel-efficient hybrid cars to their fleets this month.


BBC radio (starts about 40 minutes in)

Interviews with people putting together a transition town in Lewes (pop. 7000), studio discussion between a cornucupian in full denial and Jeremy Leggett.


Auto giants complain Congress punishing them

Major U.S. auto companies are trying, through allies in the Senate, to weaken the leading proposal for stricter fuel-efficiency standards but fear they are being punished in Congress after years of resisting such measures.


Saudi Aramco building 400,000 bpd refinery

Saudi Aramco has launched a project to build a new 400,000 barrel per day refinery that will cost $7 billion to $8 billion, the Middle East Economic Digest (MEED) reported.

The new plant is scheduled to come onstream in early 2012, MEED said without giving the source of the report. It will be built on the kingdom's east coast at Ras Tanura, already the site of the Middle East's largest refinery complex.


Climate change brings toxic moth to England

A species of toxic moth which has been moving steadily north from the Mediterranean because of global warming has reached England, the Royal Botanical Gardens in Kew said on Wednesday.


Oilsands gain a dirty name

Now that Hollywood actors are buying carbon offsets to feel even better about their air-conditioned mansions and private jets, Canada is held in contempt for being the source of the dirtiest oil on the planet -- the oilsands.


Baptists approve global warming measure

Southern Baptists approved a resolution on global warming Wednesday that questions the prevailing scientific belief that humans are largely to blame for the phenomenon and also warns that increased regulation of greenhouse gases will hurt the poor.

OT

Anyone see Ron Paul on the Colbert Report last night?

http://www.dailypaul.com/

It will be on the ReRun tonight at 8:30est on the Comedy Channel...

Shameless plug for Ron Paul

Hope he would name Roscoe Bartlett as his Energy Sec.

Many see Ron Paul as their shibboleth to obtaining change in government.

9/11 truthers, using government to stop corruption, the people who think executive orders are bunk, et la. If these people's believes are correct, Dr. Paul is a dead man walking - right?

Many have said that if you seek the job a president there is something wrong with you and you should not have the job...so under that definition Dr. Paul should not be President.

Lets say Dr. Paul became the Prez. The underlings across the government will still be (mostly) the same, The Congress won't change, et la.

If Dr. No still was Dr. No - almost every bill by the Congress should therefore be vetoed, thus needing Congress to override. One could only hope that working together to get bills passed, Congress would do a better job.

As another poster pointed out Dr Paul record on energy isn't all that good, but it is consistent with his view about what powers The Constitution grants or how a free market. if it existed, would work.

Dr. Paul has to make it though many months to get on the ballot in November. So don't spend alot of time hoping - spend your time in the next 50 days getting him past the Ames staw pole and making him #1 in the early primary states.

Many have said that if you seek the job a president there is something wrong with you and you should not have the job...so under that definition Dr. Paul should not be President.

So, ah, um, then Al Gore maybe? No, he said he wanted to be President one time. How about Paris Hilton? That's the ticket — Paris Hilton for President!

The problem will solve itself.
But not in a nice way.

Snark aside - The 'don't wanna be it' argument was made by David Bender of Politically Direct when he interviewed Al Gore.

Why should Al bother? He's in the history books with his movie. Making more money (cept I'm betting with payoffs you could make more as The Leader of Da Free World) and doesn't have the headaches of that meat grinder of a job.

Isn't the whole idea the same as what is found in Platos The Republic? It's the person who doesn't want to be king who you should appoint as king. The philosopher king?

Except Plato really did want to be King and was only pretending not to.

A very impressive slap-in-the-face 2 minute Ron Paul election ad:

No More Manipulation

Also impressive, and also at YouTube, a three-part series of Ron Paul being interviewed on the Korelin Economics Report. When he starts explaining there are still today members of the Banking Committee who think the dollar is backed by gold, everyone's speechless for a moment.

Refinery Capacity Utilization down 5% from normal.

This is pure speculation, but it occurred to me that the easy to refine Nigerian crude has been in turmoil for about a month and a half now (the latest drop of 500,000 bpd) and refinery throughput is down from usual by a similar number.

I suspect when we look in the imports rear-view mirror, we're going to see plenty of heavy oil imports to keep storage numbers high but not enough of the easy light stuff to keep the capacity numbers up.

Anyone know where the most recent import origin numbers can be found? I'd like to add something useful to the site for a change.

Anyone else notice in this weeks TWIP (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html) that the anomalous gasoline stocks build smoothed itself out with this weeks number? If you were to draw a line between two weeks ago and this week, it would simply continue the trend set by the previous weeks...whereas last week's number is out in it's own little world.

Compressed Natural Gas Cars

In Argentina natural gas was 60% cheaper than gasoline (NBC).

http://www.gnc.org.ar/NBC_news.pdf

Argentina has their winter in June. A cold spell has caused power outages and long lines at CNG "gas stations".

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1843026/posts

Argentina has a million natural gas cars on the road.

http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=414

Brazilians had more than a million natural gas cars.

Iran began to use natural gas cars.

Pakistan was using natural gas cars.

Egypt used natural gas cars.

Australia was switching to LPG cars.

Natural gas prices varied from location to location.


CNG pressure gauge

They have significant shortages but the left leaning government imposed price controls. It follows that the juice goes somewhere else.

The price controls are so bad that the service stations have imposed separate transaction fees to be able to remain in business.

FYI
Our family uses two CNG vehicles here in CA; It's a medium-term strategy that will either be smart or foolish--only time will tell. We should have a home fueling device in by summer's end.
Maybe a vanity plate that reads "REDQUEEN" would be in order? Or "PEAKCNG", or "PKOILHG", or...
I suspect that few other CNG-driving folks here expect NatGas to both increase in price and become scarce in "short" time; again, it's all about the timing.

Eric,

How did you come across the Williams link ? To compare notes, if you will.

I posted about it on the 11th I believe, and when I googled his name and book title I got returns that were limited in scope.

Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?
Here
it is !

How did you come across the Williams link ?

Mike Rivero's What really happened site. When I want to get my 'damn lying bastards' grove on, Mike does not disappoint.

I enjoyed yesterday's report of 1/2 a million people on the FBI terrorist watch list. All I could do was shake my head over how much effort is being spent to 'watch' 1/2 a million people.

"Here are the facts," says Lindsey Williams. "There is as much crude oil on the north slope of Alaska as there is in Saudia Arabia."

Boy, I'm glad I got a chance to see that video. Here I've been wasting time reading TheOilDrum.com, and now I find out that peak oil is just one big conspiracy. There's plenty for everybody but the gubbament's hiding it.

Who is this guy anyway?

"Here are the facts," says Lindsey Williams. "There is as much crude oil on the north slope of Alaska as there is in Saudia Arabia."

Soon enough, that will be true.

cfm in Gray, ME

LOL

Xeroid.

In my opinion, Lindsey Williams has very little credibility. I base this opinion on having listened to over ten Williams interviews, aired almost exclusively on "Patriot" style right-of-center/libertarian radio networks (I listen to, and read, stuff from all over the spectrum). Without exception, the only substantiation to his claims are based on his conversations with oil men in Alaska in the 1970s/80s, and then a few other conversations and support he has received from people after Williams started speaking of his conclusions. I have never heard him offer a single fact or observation that has been independently verified. I'd be happy for someone to prove me wrong.

Williams is an ordained Baptist preacher, and you should hear how he promotes his books!

Anyway, the bottom-line: Again, I'd be happy to be proven wrong, but Williams comes off as an intellectual lightweight that offers flimsy hearsay-based arguments that can't be verified. You can find many articles about him and his views on the internet. But I highly recommend you search for actual audio interviews. You'll get a pretty strong impression of the guy. It may be that he really believes what he's preaching, and he may very well be a sincere man. But I don't think reality matches his stories.

In this society, where Paris Hilton's trip back to jail dominates the news for an entire day (like cheap paparazzi), this should be expected. There will be no awareness of this issue until it becomes a catastrophe in progress and then the clueless will scream "why didn't anybody tell us?" while crying on the roadside. My sympathies will be rather limited.

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

We Were Warned is supposed to be re-broadcast on June 25. Not sure if this is the regular CNN or a special version meant for schools.

Article includes a lesson plan.

I'd appreciate further updates on when We Were Warned will be re-aired, I've missed it so far. Thanks.

Story about the little intangible issues caused by more expensive fuel:

Products put at risk by relentless cost-cutting: Study finds that not one of 25 major companies tracked was aware enough of serious risks in the product supply chain.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/04/news/economy/supplychain_risk/index.htm

The Deloitte study, entitled "Supply chain's last straw: A vicious cycle of risk," studied 25 leading global companies from various industries with combined revenues of more than $1.5 trillion. It found that not one of them was fully prepared to handle or prevent these risks.

What's more, the report concluded that as companies cut costs to become more efficient - and more competitive globally - the more vulnerable they tend to become to lapses in the supply chain.

"The search for cheaper labor, cheaper raw materials, and cheaper transportation - the quest for efficiency - has forced the focus of companies to switch from revenue growth to cost reduction," Deloitte said in the study. "Individually, these forces have changed the world in which we live and conduct business. But when combined, these forces can create a perfect storm of risk not seen before in the history of commerce or humankind," it added.

Ken Landis, a principal with Deloitte Consulting who worked on the report, said Deloitte initiated the study a year ago after noticing these patterns.

-cut-

"Recognize that efficiency leads to vulnerability. As companies move to lower costs across the supply chain, at some point it'll become difficult to buy quality products. History has shown that when you squeeze the supplier, they will skimp," he said.

What's more, the report concluded that as companies cut costs to become more efficient - and more competitive globally - the more vulnerable they tend to become to lapses in the supply chain.

That is what Homer-Dixon's The Upside of Down is about. Efficiency means loss of resilience.

Many peak oilers think efficiency is the answer, or a big part of it. I am starting to suspect that that's going to prove to be a huge mistake. It may allow us to keep the party going longer, but the crash, when it comes, will be that much worse.

You only have to look at where your food comes from. Or your energy.

You should want that supply chain to be as short as possible (as in your own back yard), or you'll inevitably wind up as toast, or a slave, or a slave on toast.

That's the big win in globalization and free trade: it takes people's independence away.

What this all means is that company's are cutting costs like crazy, sometimes to the detriment their customer's safety.

I think all the stories we have heard about tainted spinach, beef, pet food, etc. can be attributed at the root by these companies cutting costs and cutting corners. When those cuts happen to be with quality oversight, it can lead to dangerous consequences.

Growing your own food these days is not only cost-saving and energy-saving, it could be acutely life-saving.

Now, take that cost-cutting idea and apply it to the medical industry. Scary thought.

What this all means is that company's are cutting costs like crazy, sometimes to the detriment their customer's safety. ....Now, take that cost-cutting idea and apply it to the medical industry. Scary thought.

Another scary thought is apply cost-cutting to the airline industry. One reason I don't fly any more, or at least unless some dire circumstance requires it.

There are many critical operations, services, and products in this country (the world) where you start cutting down and cutting corners (to gain efficiencies - euphemism) and things become randomly dangerous and unpredictable.

I see it as a side effect of Peak Oil and our efforts to maintain the complex systems we have built instead of creating less energy intensive systems. The second option means that the status quo must change, which is rather difficult due to economic and cultural inertia.

As Bob Shaw would say, "wild speculation ahead".

Refinery problems of 2007 due to cost & corner cutting?
Expect more unplanned breakdowns of complex systems?
Sounds wildly unbelievable? Yes it does....so why does it keep happening.

Yep, you only have to read the professional pilot's forum
http://www.pprune.org/forums/

They don't need to spend money on oversight or resilience. Disruptions to the system are terrorist acts and covered by Homeland Stazi. Essentially, they are externalizing the costs of lack of resilience onto the people who have backyard chickens and gardens and making the taxpayers pick up the tab. The Tylenol poisoning would today be an act of terrorism, probably hushed up for "nationaly security" and the manufacturer would be off the hook.

cfm in Gray, ME

It was spelled with an "S" and it wasn't "wag the dog" :-)

Staatsicherheit--->Sta/Si--> Stasi, State Security

That's why efficiency is just one end of the equation. As with investments, the strategy has to include diversification, if you don't want dependency or over-investment in one place to drag you down.

Having an efficient car gets you just so far (literally), if you are still living 30 miles from work and have no way to bike or bus that distance.

Just the same, making your home and commute more energy efficient is still a very beneficial step in the right direction, and any of the instant Jevons' comparisons or 'yah, but you're still stuck on oil' critiques doesn't change the fact that you'd have cut your monthly outlay by X-dollars, which with efficiency habits and installations is a compounding interest, every month. I highly doubt that getting a more efficient vehicle would persuade someone to make up the entire difference by driving more miles..

"Efficiency means loss of resilience"
That's too broad. A home that's been tightened up and well-insulated is, by definition, more resilient to extreme weather, and hence the energy needed to heat/cool it. A business that has found ways to make a product with cheaper inputs, less material or labor.. still gets to choose (or its customers do) whether the product has also been cheapened too much to be worth buying, and will have to adjust the designs or face competitors who have. I look at the miniscule amount of materials in a cellphone now, and I am at once impressed that the functionality can be attained with a couple ounces of stuff, but also frustrated that they're so flimsy, losable, and I'd happily lug around another few ounce of battery, just to have it last a lot longer and transmit to further-off towers.

I do expect a growing demand for toughened products to begin to show up as our current 'totally disposable' model becomes more and more untenable.

What I had meant to say regarding Diversifying is probably obvious enough, but that your energy (including food) needs want to have both multiple sources and some kind of storage capacity, in order to have resilience. Just-in-time MFR processes might qualify to some as 'efficiency', but I suppose there is the kind of vulnerability your link would have been pointing to..

But to have some independent- heat, electric and refrigeration generating and storage capacity, even a little bit.. could go a ways to insulate people from the exorbitant costs and difficulties present in a supply disruption.. and from there forward, it becomes 'how much generating capacity can I add?', 'How much contingency storage can I keep handy? (heat, electric, cold, water, food, product, raw material)', 'and how slowly can I consume it when the chips are really down?'

These apply somewhat differently to businesses, as I alluded, but clearly with other factors not mentioned.. R