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DrumBeat: June 16, 2007
Posted by Leanan on June 16, 2007 - 9:26am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Shell shelves oil-shale application to refine its research
The front-runner energy company in the effort to unlock oil shale in northwest Colorado has slowed down its research by withdrawing an application for a state mining permit.Shell spokeswoman Jill Davis said the withdrawal of a permit on one of its three oil-shale research and demonstration leases was done for economic reasons: Costs for building an underground wall of frozen water to contain melted shale have "significantly escalated."
Nuclear doesn't have power to halt global warming
Nuclear power would only curb climate change by expanding worldwide at the rate it grew from 1981 to 1990, its busiest decade, and keep up that rate for half a century, a report said this week.That would require adding on average 14 plants each year for the next 50 years, all the while building an average of 7.4 plants to replace those that will be retired, the report by environmental leaders, industry executives and academics said.
Considering how much trouble two people have deciding what movie to see, the most remarkable thing about a new set of global-climate predictions may be that it exists at all. More than one hundred nations belong to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and for the panel to speak, the representatives of all those nations have to agree.
Industry siphons roadwork funding
Alabama’s road projects are funded by a 5-cent-per-gallon gasoline tax, which means the total amount each year goes up only if motorists buy more fuel.The state transportation department doesn’t receive enough gasoline tax revenue in any fiscal year to both keep up with regular highway work and fund mega-industrial projects.
And in a year of high gas prices, motorists are driving less and choosing smaller vehicles for better mileage, which shrinks the gasoline tax fund.
China wants food first, not fuel
Disturbingly, this is the second time in seven months that the Chinese leadership has had to resort to the country's strategic reserves to stave off politically dangerous increases in food prices. In December, Beijing ordered the auctioning of some of the state wheat reserves to halt the rise in crops prices and prevent panic among the public.
Energy plan's surprising impact
Dick Morse, a feed dealer in southeast Iowa, has something in common with the Coca-Cola Co. Both are concerned about a push in Congress to increase the production of fuel ethanol and what that's doing to their business.Lawmakers "are so giddy about getting away from foreign oil that I'm not sure they're looking at the whole picture," says Morse, who worries that ethanol-fueled increases in corn prices may force many of his customers to quit raising hogs.
The nation's unquenchable thirst for gasoline -- and finding an alternative to what's been called our addiction to oil -- has produced an unintended consequence: The cost of the foods that fuel our bodies has jumped.
California Takes Action to Increase Use of Ethanol in Gasoline
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) at their June 14th meeting in Fresno voted on a new reformulation of California gasoline that will allow an increase up to 10 percent of the amount of renewable, clean-burning, low carbon ethanol into California's gasoline blend.
Illinois' great energy hunt - Corn, coal and me-first politics
It adds up to an all-too-common capital conundrum: Nearly everyone says there's agreement on the goal, but the details could derail everything."It's going to be very difficult to hash out a compromise," said Rep. Dan Lipinski, an Illinois Democrat who traces his energy interest to an 8th-grade science project on solar power. "I predict that it's not going to please a lot of environmentalists, a lot of people who want to impact global warming."
Hawai`i: Pump prices could plummet by July
Disputed legislation now on Hawai‘i Gov. Linda Lingle’s desk could drop soaring gasoline prices 11 to 14 cents per gallon starting July 1 and create transparency in the petroleum industry, state lawmakers said Friday.House Bill 1757 would forgive the general excise tax on alcohol fuel and require gasoline retailers to pass any savings on to the consumer.
I hope you’re watching the debate right now over the sprawling S.1419/H.R.6,12 ball of energy legislation in Congress, because if you aren’t, you’re missing some real comedy.You can almost figure out which state a Congressman is from just by reading what he or she is saying.
The inconvenient truth about the carbon offset industry
Greenhouse gas credits do little or nothing to combat global warming
Recycling Is Not Enough; We Need To Consume Less, Experts Urge
Recycling rates have risen, and the UK is on schedule to meet EU targets, but the key to dealing with our escalating waste problem lies in changing our buying habits and our attitudes to consumption, according to the authors of a new Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) publication.
Nigeria Militant Group Coalition Says it Will End Oil Attacks
A coalition of militia groups in the Niger Delta Friday said it was ending attacks it has waged on the oil industry, following the release Thursday of its detained leader, Mujahideen Dokubo-Asari.
A secretive project dubbed "The Gorilla" by inhabitants of Elk Point, S.D., turns out to be a planned 400,000 barrel-a-day oil refinery. That's right. Do not adjust your computer monitor. A refinery. If actually built, it would be the first new one in this country since Marathon Oil opened its Garyville, La., plant in 1976.
Indonesia Gas Field Shut Down Due to Fire
The Pangkah gas field located offshore Indonesia in East Java has been shut down following a fire that broke out overnight on the rig. Production has been shut down and well activities have been stopped Amir Hamzah, a BP Migas spokesperson said to Reuters via text message. It is not known at this time how long the field will be shut in.
Putting Energy Hogs in the Home on a Strict Low-Power Diet
I THOUGHT I was pretty good about energy conservation, but it turns out that I’ve been a bit of a hypocrite. I drive a reasonably fuel-efficient car, I work at home so I don’t use fuel to commute and I am replacing incandescent bulbs in my home with energy-efficient fluorescent bulbs.But I am also a prodigious computer user, and it looks as if that makes me an energy hog.
Oil Market Under Pressure, Supply Not Able to Counter Demand
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Western consumers seem to be heading towards a conflict.In recent weeks, statements made by both parties, OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), the statistical arm of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), have shown increased tension based on growing concerns of consumers about the oil supply situation.
Saudi Aramco has upped the petrol refining capacity at its Yanbu refinery, according to a statement on its website. The increase will see an additional 8,000 barrels per day of 95-octane petrol produced at the plant in the west of the kingdom. The hike is part of its plan to expand its refining activities and also meet local and international demand.
Valero seeking bonds to expand refinery
Valero Energy Corp. is taking another step toward expanding its Norco refinery by seeking approval of $1 billion in Gulf Opportunity Zone bonds from the St. Charles Parish Council.Company officials stressed that they have not committed to the project to expand the refinery's capacity from 220,000 barrels of crude per day to 380,000 barrels, but the company is lining up permits and financing before making the decision.
Fuel costs hurt business: Small firms squeezed, especially on retail deliveries
Australia: Car lobby calls for road-use charging
ALL motorists should carry a GPS-type transponder in their vehicles and, instead of paying fuel taxes, they should pay for every kilometre they drive, in varying amounts depending on what time they use the road....Motorists would be rewarded for driving at off-peak times or in cars that used less petrol. Instead of the various taxes imposed on fuel, people would be charged on either their use of roads or on carbon emissions.
Strike Causes Fuel Shortage In Lagos
THE strike called by Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) and the National Association of Road Transport Owners (NARTO), which commenced on Friday took its toll on fuel supply in Lagos State as several filling stations ran out of petrol stock.It also resulted in long queues at the filling stations. Transport fares rose by 50 per cent with commuters stranded at major bus stops.
...The strike is in protest the fuel price hike and non increase in freight levy for transporters.
A cathedral of power that has become the dirty dinosaur
Welcome to Drax Power Station: carbon dioxide central, "Draxosaurus" to the Greens, and the biggest single producer of the global-warming carbon dioxide gases in Western Europe. Drax - even its James-Bond-villain name sounds sinister - is Biblical in scale: a Brunelian, brutal, orgy of pig iron, roaring flames, clanking conveyors, steam and whirling turbines.Like a vast ocean liner beached on the Yorkshire flatlands, this power station is the last gasp of old, steam-powered Britain - and it is still going strong. Yet most environmentalists believe that the time has come when Draxosaurus must be made extinct.
Monument Unveiled by Raul Castro and Hugo Chavez
Chavez spoke about the possibility of building a regasification plant on the island. “That wouldn’t have been possible before,” he said, “because of the neoliberal contracts that were managed by US corporations in the period when sovereignty was handed over to attract investment without thinking of the supply needs of Venezuelans.”He said the idea of gas is cheaper and less polluting, and could be brought to Cuba in ships.
Doubt over climate change forecasts
For the past year, [Bogi Hansen]'s sonar has been pinging the Gulf Stream, the warm ocean current that has kept this subpolar archipelago unfrozen for centuries. His findings are of big interest because they contradict one of the most catastrophic predictions linked to global warming: that Arctic melting will strangle the Gulf Stream, thrusting Europe into a new Ice Age.In fact, Hansen's research and recent climate models raise a tantalizing possibility: Can the slight weakening of the Gulf Stream expected over the next century actually help to offset the effects of global warming in northern Europe?
Museveni says climate change a modern attack on Africa
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on Friday called global warming a form of external aggression against Africa as the impact of the phenomenon is felt more acutely on the continent than elsewhere.
This is your chance to take make your case to the nation's next president. Send us a 30 second video with your best message to compel the next president to make global warming a priority.The winning video will receive two tickets and airfare to the hottest show on the planet - the Live Earth concert in New York on July 7th!
Family takes climate change personally
SYDNEY, Australia - From the street, Alicia Campbell's house looks no different from the others in her suburban cul-de-sac. But it has a secret: It's green — very green.The four-bedroom home she shares with husband Jason Young and their two sons sucks no water from Australia's drought-stricken reservoirs, recycles everything from food scraps to sewage, and even pumps electricity back into Sydney's power grid.
Green energy – Why small can be beautiful
Localised power generation, including companies’ own projects, could be the future of environmental energy production.
Russia steps up efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emission
Russia is to intensify efforts to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions in order to stay in compliance with the Kyoto treaty as its economy rebounds from the economic collapse of the early 1990s, the country's deputy economic development minister said.
Betting On Oil? Pay Close Attention To The Facts
Nothing loses you money like aphorisms. “This time it’s different” is a favorite, but another good one is “Buy the rumor, sell the news.” Well, in the case of oil, you may want to stick to it.Oil, unlike, say, gold, is a commodity of utility; not only do we need it to keep warm at night, but it’s not hyperbole or penmanship to say that it fuels most of the world’s economies. Nobody except OPEC and Hugo Chavez really thinks this is a good long-term plan for the human race, but it’s the real world.
Peak Oil Passnotes: The Name Is Bonds, T-Bonds
One of the main factors in maintaining high energy prices is the fact that high costs are already delaying new production coming onstream. There is a choking point in the energy complex that may be further exacerbated by any fear of a recession. A combination of high current costs, delayed projects and fear of investment due to uncertainty will only bolster prices. All of this is backed up by the fact that the cheap and easy to access oil and gas has gone.
Globalization has created this sense of loss that went so far and has gone so far that I think you're starting to see it come back. And it's being driven very, very much by the threats that peak oil pose. But there's not just peak oil, there's peak soil, there's peak water. There's a lot of peaks coming and they're all related. And so people are starting to you know to sniff the wind, feel it and starting to create again, alternatives to this in their communities.
Global pro-poor biofuel revolution now possible
The pioneering project to produce ethanol from sweet sorghum , being implemented jointly by the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) and Rusni Distilleries, has achieved a significant milestone with the first batch of ethanol flowing out of the distillery at Mohammed Shapur village in Andhra Pradesh, India.
Biofuel Condemns the Poor to Starvation Says UN Rapporteur
"The development of biofuels poses a great danger for the right to food," said the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food Jean Ziegler at a press conference on the sidelines of the UN Council on Human Rights.Ziegler accused the United States, the European Union and Japan of encouraging alcohol production to reduce their dependence on imported oil, reported Granma newspaper.
Exxon Says it Never Doubted Climate Change Threat
Oil company Exxon Mobil Corp. never in the past decade doubted the risk from climate change, its global spokesman Kenneth Cohen said on Thursday, in a latest attempt to improve its green credentials.Exxon had simply firmed up, or "evolved", its understanding of the threat, said Cohen, the company's head of public affairs.
Study: Energy Prices, Not Corn, is Raising Food Prices
Ethanol critics and many in the media charge that the rising price of corn due to growing ethanol demand is the major culprit for moderately rising consumer food prices. Conspicuously absent from the discussion is the chief reason for increasing food costs: escalating energy costs.According to a new analysis of food, energy and corn prices conducted by John Urbanchuk of LECG, LLC, "rising energy prices had a more significant impact on food prices than did corn." Rising energy prices have twice the impact on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food than does the price of corn, according to the report.
5 foreigners kidnapped in Nigeria
Gunmen abducted five foreigners Friday in Nigeria's restive southern oil heartland, with at least three of them seized and spirited away in a speedboat, officials said.
Argentine energy crisis leaves industrial customers idle
To avoid residential blackouts the Argentine government imposed stricter electricity consumption restrictions plunging some industrial customers to an indefinite supply cut off as demand again peaked when temperatures plunged to freezing levels.
http://costofwar.com/
The current snapshot for the war in Iraq shows $ costs at $435,047,157,000.
If the money was used for a $10,000 rebate for buying a Prius:
Hastily put together...of course feel free to check the numbers. I propose a thread: If you were to spend the money (that has been pi$$ed away in Iraq) on a good cause, what would you spend it on and how much impact would it make?
4/10 trillion dollars would allow for (and obviously it would have to be repaid by the future as well)
at 10 billion dollar a nuclear power plant we get 43 new nuclear plants operating at probably 2GW.
one can obviously reduce the demand for gasoline by simply taxing the shit out of it (look at norway, steady consumption for the past 35 years). I do not think rebates on the prius alone will work, taxation of heavy and fuel inefficient vehicles with the proceeds of the tax being applied to fuel efficient vehicles would be the best.
Good luck convincing Americans of "taxing the shit out of" gas. From reading news accounts in my Google news alerts, plus the always superb stories edited into the DrumBeats, I know that already, at these extremely low prices, the "average" American driver is not happy. From what I can gather the majority consensus seems to be "why are these prices so high?" (Of course, they're not, as the last gas-price post eloquently shows). One lacking critical intelligence but fully loaded on cornucopian idealism quickly comes to the conclusion, as I like to repeat a lot, that either:
"They're gouging us, this isn't fair!"
Or it's the tired saw "It's the government's fault!"
Both actually kind of true, if you play with the semantics a bit. Profits and "gouging" is really just a meaningless lawyer's debate, and the other defense mechanism is simply imaginative thinking, something we Americans excel at. It is as much the entire society's fault as it is the government's. It is illustrative of how bankrupt the entire political spectrum is. Given the American Idol/MTV mode of intellectual discourse we have amongst the masses in the US, taxing gas would make 'em a lot more unhappy--not to mention upsetting the oil companies, our cultural viceroys.
Don't get me wrong, I agree with you. It is just political suicide for whoever attempts it.
[edit: "If you were to spend the money (that has been pi$$ed away in Iraq) on a good cause, what would you spend it on and how much impact would it make?" Answer: 435000000000/300000000 ... I would have given every American $1450. That's how you buy votes! Seriously though, there is a lot that half a trillion could be used for, paying down the debt, Manhattan/Apollo energy program, etc etc.]
Mr f, I find it difficult to get most of my long term friends to understand PO so I dont think any politician is going to try it with the voters. A few gentle words about PO causes their eyes to glaze over. It reminds me of the looks on the faces of those in algebra 101. Tuned out!
If I could spend the money that has been spent in the Iraqi fiasco I would put it into high speed commuter rail and expanding the standard freight rail. I would also mandate that the GM electic car be brought back with the new batteries that would extend the range to 300 miles without recharge. Most of the electric cars would be recharged at night during off peak hours for the electical grid. The electric car would have met the needs of 90% of the commuters in the US. They were taken off the market because they (almost) never required maintence and would have destroyed the auto makers business model.
The federal government really has no choice but to raise gas taxes within the next year or two. If not, the highway fund will reach a $5.7 billion deficit in 2010 and will be forced to cut obligations by 42 percent ($18.2 billion) from the 2009 obligation level.
The only question is how much the tax will be raised. The leading industry group AASHTO says a 3-cent increase is necessary to avoid a major cut and a 10-cent increase is required restore purchasing power to 1993 levels.
AASHTO also calls on state and local governments to increase transportation funding by $110 billion over the next eight years. They say increased tolls will be necessary on top of traditional funding sources.
$ 5.7 billion deficit ? no problem, do what el'befuddleoso has done, borrow more money.
Hi substrate – you still don’t get it ...
Bush & Co are aiming at conquering Iraq and Afghanistan for the sole idea of having a large open air prison in the post peak-oil scenario in a remote place overseas .. The warden’s administration building is almost finished – taking the shape of an “embassy” for the time being.
Something along the lines of what Australia became for the Britons some 200 years ago. The prisoners will be forced to count the sand grains, and when finished – one more time just to be sure!
If succeeding in “stealing” Iraq and Afghanistan, it will be the place to send future criminals. This has nothing to do with oil …. That’s oil folks
-apart from this your reflections are thougthfull :)
At 15,000 miles/vehicle/year, the difference in consumption is 300 gallons/veh/yr or 12.9 billion gallons/year. This is about 840,000 barrels/day.
Iraq produces on the order of 2 million bbl/day. I'd hoped that a different investment would at least offset the oil production of Iraq, but it seems that it only hits about 40%.
HOWEVER: If the money was spent on the extra cost of a hybrid system (about $2000 per Toyota) for all new vehicles, that would cover about 215 million vehicles. It would take quite some time to get them all built, but the ultimate savings would be about 2 Iraqs.
... I squeeze this in here
There is no fuel substance or no anything in future (when PO is understood- in say 10-20 years from now) – that will allow for 1 person to hitchhike inside a chunk of steel weighting in at 1-2 tones at a 15% efficiency per fuel content – cruising in 100 mph - for the sole purpose of transporting this piece of Skin&Bones from A to B. Money will not matter – society will rule this (my guess)
The techniques of cheap&easy personal transport are here already today –
Light and fine-tuned small petrol-cars reaching 3000 kilometers IN USING 1 liter of petroleum – wow, And those cars actually maintain a nice speed as well.
The challenge is the transition between an eventual micro-car-street-environments alongside the Humvees, SUVs, Truck/Trailers and so forth ..
If the car-oil economy where to be started freshly today – including the concerns of all we know, WE WOULD HAVE GONE DOWN THE MICRO-CAR ALLEY ….
Personally I believe in mass-transports for the future and lightly motorized vehicles in rural areas …. Lets hope
Sorry, paal, those numbers don't work. I'm interpreting "nice speed" as 100 KM/H.
A liter of gasoline has about 34.8 MJ. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline)
1 watt is a joule / second, so 34.8 MJ is 9667 watt*hours. If you assume your petrol engine is "only" 62% efficient, then you are really only talking about 6000 watt*hours of useful mechanical work.
If you are running that car at 100 KM/H you could run for 30 hours on a liter. That means 6000/30 = 200 watts continuous output
No thanks! I think I'll just use pedals for my 200 watts.
The operative points being:
Quintuple the efficiency and use electricity instead of liquid fuel, and it becomes quite affordable on all points. Cut the weight to 3/4 ton, and you get the VentureOne.
Engineer-Poet:
Looks cute, sort of like a 50 year old cover of Popular Mechanics-but if you go parking in the thing, will you need back surgery?
Looks like the model I made to get me in the BIDNESS. 'Cept the two wheels were in front.
Well this reply goes to :
SunnyvaleCA
-as it seems we have an issue here - NEVER SHOOT THE MESSENGER .. ..and IF you have any problems with my provided link then (google : Shell Eco-marathon 2007)
...furthermore and e.g.IF the 'four of you' ever see me play around with numbers, its never my own :)))):: )
Now - reality is everything, mine is different from yours , obviously ! It is about information.
I'm aiming at something like this 3000 km to 1 liter of el' petroleeeeeeeeeeeee
(hi performance/weight/distance...utilization.. and stuff like that ..
I know my numbers are insane ..... but theY are there for your eyes only ... AND if you SunnyvaleCA struggle to grasp it ... DONT blame me - please blame Shell , Yeah Shell - the oil company - they put it all together ...
Reality of the future - IS something between options of today and what is possible in the future. I just showed U what is possible today............
Still I believe in the grim reaper ... as for how we will arrange for energy as time comes our way -
oh i think people won't like a small, vehicle where the top has to be bolted on and off by someone else just to allow the driver in. of course its also poorly ventilated to keep it's aerodynamic shape.
well TrueKaiser
- what are you doing here at The oil drum in the first way ?
This place is about future solutions ... and the flagggging of the concept of power down and mitigations regarding dwindeling oil (and other NOT renewable energies)
I prefere to be 'clamped in' if that is what it takes ...
U may have a nice walk .....
Why are you obsessing about a vehicle (not a car; it doesn't have the safety equipment, lights or bumpers to be street-legal) which is overall less useful than a bicycle, just because it can run at 1/3000 liter/km?
I calculate the LHV of diesel fuel at roughly 40 MJ/liter; the economy figure you quote equates to under 4 watt-hours per km of raw fuel (perhaps 1 watt-hour/km of engine output from such a tiny engine). In short, a 100-watt solar panel could drive this vehicle at 100 kph all day, if the vehicle could actually achieve 100 kph on road.
On the other hand, a REAL electric car consumes in the region of 120-150 Wh/km. Get 6 hours/day of power out of a 1 kW solar array, and you're good for between 40 and 50 km/day while having seat belts, air bags, turn signals, bumpers, and space for groceries and a couple of friends.
A 1 kW solar array should cost between USD 5000-10000 installed. That ought to power such a vehicle for the length of the 25-year warranty. Want more range? Add more panels.
Now why should we even think about "powering down" to the absurd extreme that you're talking about here?
Engineer-Poet wrote: a REAL electric car consumes in the region of 120-150 Wh/km. Get 6 hours/day of power out of a 1 kW solar array, and you're good for between 40 and 50 km/day
[...]
A 1 kW solar array should cost between USD 5000-10000 installed. That ought to power such a vehicle
That would be 6kWh/day. Would that be the December output of the solar array?
What happens if your neighbor decides he wants to use the solar rights?
During December in the cold, dark parts of the world you use the output from your cogenerator.
Looking at the links returned, I found that in California, the Codes, Covenants and Restrictions cannot be used to block installation of solar power. Ergo, if your neighbor decides to use the sun to heat her water and power her car and computer, you can't use the CCR's to stop her. Neither can she stop you.
Equitable availability of solar power is determined by height limits and setback requirements, which wasn't important enough to you to post a search URL.
Engineer-Poet - Im not obsessing anything, I simply try to put forward that cars can be made MUCH more energy efficient - than the trend has been the last 100 years.
Thats my only point.
In scaling down consumption drastically to day - as in a magic trick - the downslope of the PO-curve could easily last mouch longer into the future ...
The point you miss is that conversion to non-petroleum energy will come about long before a 3000 km/liter vehicle becomes worthwhile.
Com'on Engineer-Poet
I'm not taking any stance to anything - I'm just putting up some info on low-efficient cars ... and conveying the idea that future personal commuting may lay between todays gas guzzlers and this 3000 km/l vehicle...
I'm not trying to tell you that this experiment-car is the future, cos' it will not be able to handle a minor uphill .... but it will be closer to the truth than todays cars in 50 years ... my guess.
Is this difficult to understand ?
( E_kinetic = 1/2 m v^2, that m has to come way down...)
If you include everything scheduled for delivery this year, today's vehicles include the Tesla Roadster. The future is going to look much more like that.
Engineer-Poet wrote: If the money was spent on the extra cost of a hybrid system [...] for all new vehicles [...] the ultimate savings would be about 2 Iraqs.
That might be the case if America's entire fleet of privately-owned cars were exclusively operated on EPA dynometers by EPA computers.
What do you suppose might be the result if the vehicles were instead owned and operated by humans -- 3.6% of whom choose to work at home partly because of the discretionary costs of driving?
What do you suppose would be the effect of insurance carriers switching to charging in real time (via electronics in the vehicle, perhaps with a real-time dashboard-display of the insurance bill)?
There are also serious societal costs, and political costs. I think part of the cause and effect of this adventurism is closely tied into the move towards Private Military Contractors...
So, I was just browsing around yesterday, like you do, following one random thought with another, disappearing off on tangents... when I came across the Wikipedia entry on Private Military Contractors... and the Rumsfeld quote in wikipedia, on this subject, in response to a question from the audience, is an area where one can peak behind the curtain just for a moment.
This quote is amazing... it is almost the global elite pitching the world's military elite on disobeying their local elites and joining the private sector, in return they will receive lucrative control of energy supplies in a post-peak world... foreseeing a complete collapse of society he basically reveals the plans of the global elite to shift to a completely stateless future - embracing a total dislocation with the state that currently has jurisdiction over the geopgraphic regions in which they may happen to currently reside. (What I am trying to say is the elites are already abandoning traditional states as dead and gone in a post-peak future and setting up what comes next... in this regard they have more in common with Al Qaeda and organized crime than governments of old)
Rumsfeld and the elites he represents are basically telling the elites in other (minor) countries that you REALLY SHOULD hire private military contractors to protect your interests instead of relying on a public national army...
Make no mistake: These guys are HARDCORE revolutionaries!
Now, as a group "we" are being blackmailed into accepting this, what to many would be a nightmarish, future by having a gun held to our heads on global warming - (and with the recent Southern Baptist announcment is there any remaining doubt that this is using the religious extremes to help control the masses and maintain their ignorance?)... basically the WE here is the educated middle class - either accept the overseer status you have as your lot or end up in the masses, or else we'll play chicken and keep burning the environment up... actually we are made up of the elites in minor countries and the educated middle class in the major countries.
So having created a vague us and them for rhetorical purposes here, they are saying: "Only if you accept our hegemony will we allow changed to be made to fix things like global warming and address resource depletion." And they will fix it. It'll be their equivalent of "at least Hitler made the trains run on time", that it took this sort of societal structure to finally solve the global warming crisis through massive authoritarianism.
I think this is the endgame organized crime has always played out for... mafia type entiites are merely ways for the lowest classes to fight their way up towards the elites and are tolerated by the true elites as a means of effectively controlling the poor. Again, this is tremendously inefficient, and corrupt kleptocratic societal structures have been disadvantaged in the high-energy-availability-fueled growth of the last few centuries due to the exponential nature of growth exacerbating relatively small differences in efficiency.
Finally, I think that the number of cases in recent history of mercenary companies almost, actually or attempting to take over governments in minor states gives some indication of the post peak end games that some of these PMCs or at least their backers are going for.
[apologies for rambling, this was getting too long for a comment, so i decided to diary a longer version at DailyKos in case you are interested]
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
Excellent post on PMC.
I especially like your brief take on your disenchantment with political debate... If you don't mind, I'd like to paste some of your Kos essay that was excluded here...
ResponsibleAccountable's text from Kos:
"Once upon a time I checked in on DailyKos not just daily but several times a day. Nowadays the only site I check throughout the day is The Oil Drum. Over the years my increasing concern about the Peak Oil situation has really reprioritized things for me, and lowered my patience for the bickering and small-scale politics side of things in the US... and from a Peak Oil perspective there just really isn't as much difference for voters between their options as many active politics followers would like. So my passion for US politics has waned... (you should check out why: www.theoildrum.com and in particular the daily drumbeat by Leanan should never be missed)
I am surprised there is not more cross-pollination of ideas between those "interested in politics" and those "peak oil doomers" given that they should be considering similar issues... perhaps the game is just being played over the heads of the politicos nowadays, and the Peak Oilers are still so shell shocked that they haven't figured out the right political tack yet."
Post away - I appreciate your taking the time to read my thoughts.
I do sometimes wonder if the victory of the shouty-shouty politics style has permeated other areas of our life and disabled our ability to debate in broader terms.
Plus I think there is a lot of lazy thinking going on in the Beat Bush circles.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
Yup, I'm there with you. I think that is the "beauty of Bush"--to put it oddly... That he looks dumb and obviously doesn't know what the hell is going on seems to be his asset.
I sometimes tell people almost word for word what you just said about--to reverse your term, "Bush Beating"... They usually respond "Well, I mean, we have to criticize someone, and he's at the top right?"
They don't seem to understand that whining about Bush not only sidetracks the Left into unproductive territory--but also allows other more damaging (like I wrote about in the Peak Oil Update comment thread a few days ago) memes to take hold through obsessions with Bush, Cheney, et al coupled with conspiracy theories... I sometimes think the neocons like it, feed off of it. As you wrote, the behavior certainly splits up the PO aware population--not to mention distracts from the issue we're all concerned about, oil depletion and the resulting aftermath...
Plus, Cheney certainly seems to relish media hatred... It seems not only pointless, but also helps make criticism that has real merit, in the end, diminutive.
bush is a fucking idiot ,i dont see the point of pussy footing around the issue.
*Guffaw*, yes.
However, my only point in beating around the bush (heh, sorry for the bad pun) is that, yes, we all know Bush is a dumbass... Now, can we please talk about something else?
I only keep on harping about this because I agree with ResponsibleAccountable that the Left is stuck in a very unproductive mode, and if we are to even *attempt* trying to "mitigate" this situation, then this frame of mind must change, because the republicans, apart from our main man Roscoe, simply just don't give a shit about anything (except unborn fetuses and Jesus)... Capisce?
When you have a civilian political system that is working for foreign interests and opening the country up for invasion, the logical question would be "at what point does the military have not the right but the duty to overthrow the government" ???.
What we see in Iraq is a 'state' response to fourth generation warfare. It isnt working. If you would like to know why it isnt working you can check out this site.
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/
Briefly, 4GW aims to hollow out a state and take control of its resources (but not institutions) through open source warfare. If you are an 'insurgent' fighting in 4GW mode and need some IEDs that will penetrate the armor of an Abrams tank you put out the word on the street along with the price you are willing to pay for them and presto, they are designed, manufactured and tested by another group that you have no relation to and perhaps no prior knowledge of. These very loosely interconnected groups are not hierarchical and nearly impossible to penetrate. Some of the groups are idealogically driven, some are driven by money, but they are in the end fighting a common enemy or enemies. In a failed state such as Iraq 4GW warfare is almost impossible to stop using the best countermeasures. I do not see where private armies using the same techniques as our conventional armies would have any better success against 4GW.
Among the many stupid things that we have done in Iraq the worst (imo) was to state our purposes prior to the invasion. We announced to the world loudly that we were coming after any country that didnt conform to our stadard model. After that announcement how were we to win the 'hearts and minds' of the Iraqi people and get them on our side? If anything the neo cons are even dumber than the fools that were in charge of the Viet Nam fiasco.