DrumBeat: June 17, 2007
Posted by Leanan on June 17, 2007 - 9:20am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Sacred river endangered by global warming
In this 3,000-year-old city known as the Jerusalem of India for its intense religious devotion, climate change could throw into turmoil something many devout Hindus thought was immutable: their most intimate religious traditions. The Gangotri glacier, which provides up to 70 percent of the water of the Ganges during the dry summer months, is shrinking at a rate of 40 yards a year, nearly twice as fast as two decades ago, scientists say.
Iraqi oil: Violence, wrapped in mayhem, inside chaos
Iraq cannot increase its production or expand its capacity since its oil infrastructure has been hobbled by crime and sabotage. Northern Iraq is rich in oil, but exports via a pipeline through Turkey have been effectively halted for years.To make matters worse, Iraqi legislation to set ground rules for the country's oil policy has stalled. “It looks like everything is stalling regarding the constitution and other legislations, like the Iraqi oil,” Muhammad-Ali Zainy, senior energy economist and analyst with the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London, told New Europe on June 13.
The Impact of Climate Change Measured as a Percent of GDP (Flash)
Bangladesh importers scramble for older cars
Bangladeshi car importers have urged the country's army-backed interim government to allow older vehicles in to keep them affordable to buyers, the head of the vehicle importers' association said on Sunday.
U.S. subsidy for ethanol could shift
The change is designed to encourage production of fuel from crop residue.
Call for Spain to switch fully to renewables
Some 4,000 environmental campaigners gathered in Barcelona on Saturday to press the government to commit Spain to switch fully to renewable energy sources by 2050, Greenpeace said.
Qatar plans to invest $20bn in oil and LNG projects abroad
QATAR PETROLEUM (QP) will invest or is negotiating investments abroad worth $20bn, including a $7bn oil refinery in Panama with Occidental Petroleum, Qatar’s deputy prime minister has said.
Power firms 'overcharge us by 25%'
A TOP academic has accused energy companies of profiteering, saying they have hiked prices by over 25% more than can be justified by increases in the wholesale market.
America's love affair with the pickup stumbles
In March, Bucky Hacker traded his 2002 Dodge Ram Quad Cab pickup for a subcompact car, the Mazda 3. Hacker, a student from Oak Ridge, Tenn., originally bought the Ram to tow a boat, and thought its macho appearance would help him attract girls.But there were drawbacks. "Gas was ridiculous," Hacker, 24, said. "The thing got 13 miles per gallon." His Mazda averages twice that, or 26 mpg in city and highway driving, and it will be easier to fit into tight parking spaces at the University of Tennessee, where he plans to study political science this fall.
Experts: Gas prices can't slow down pickup sales in Alabama
Industry watchers and auto sellers say rising gas prices aren't going to stop Alabama drivers from lining up to buy trucks despite national trends showing declining truck sales.
Hybrids draw interest, but few local sales
From January through June 3, hybrids accounted for 2.8 percent of all new vehicles sold, according to the Power Information Network, which tracks auto data. In all of 2006, hybrids made up 1.9 percent of new vehicles purchased.During May, hybrids represented 3.4 percent of all new U.S. vehicle sales, their highest monthly percentage ever, according to Power Information Network data.
Higher gas prices fueling the demand for scooters
Chris Carr is used to people coming into his showroom and kicking the tires of the highmileage scooters he has for sale.But this year's customers at Fresno Motorsports are different, he said.
They're not just looking at scooters, they're buying them.
"They say, 'Gas prices are killing me, and I have to do something right now,'" he said.
Consumers must lead way to curb energy appetite
Tom Bloch knew exactly what he wanted when he arrived at Lowe's home improvement store in Epping on Thursday afternoon.The Derry man made Lowe's salesman Derrick Cantrell's job easy as he looked over a stainless steel, Bosch dishwasher that bore the federal government's Energy Star label. The dishwasher was selling for $998, but Bloch said he knows it will pay for itself in the long run.
Tackling Ohio's electric rates - Experts work to keep prices under control
Homeowners and businesses better brace themselves: The cost of electricity in northwest Ohio after next year is likely to rise, but whether it will be shocking is unclear.
A good idea whose time has not yet come
What if the United States were to tap a major domestic source of energy to create transportation fuel that would help break our dependence on imported oil and might last centuries?
Some experts blame gas prices on oil companies, which invest in stock buybacks instead of expanding.
Give Ethanol a Chance: The Case for Corn-Based Fuel
In the last few years, the environmental community has begun attacking corn-derived ethanol. Although imperfect, there are reasons to give ethanol a fair trial.
Great con job by ethanol industry
For close to two years, this column has inveighed against ethanol as a solution to energy dependence on the Middle East, Russia, Nigeria, and Venezuela, all weak reeds on which to lean.At the same time, we have been strong advocates of the conversion of coal- to-oil, which has proven a reliable alternative to conventional crude for almost a century.
Consumers have responded to higher fuel prices by grouping trips or leaving the car home, and economists predict Americans similarly will tweak their food habits - reallocating some food dollars from eating out to buying groceries, choosing to eat less meat and cooking smaller portions to reduce waste.Janet and Sam Nelson just purchased a stand-alone freezer so they could buy in bulk on sale. On a recent trip to the grocery store, the St. Paul couple stocked up on $1 frozen dinners. Janet Nelson, a veterinary technician, said they eat fewer meals out now because of small increases on many items, even ramen noodles.
Oil dependence spells economic disaster for Ireland
Ireland is on course for an economic recession in the coming years if we do not reduce our dependence on oil, according to warnings from a new RTE television programme.The programme, Future Shock: End Of The Oil Age, explores the challenges that Ireland faces when global oil reserves have been depleted. The central message of the programme, which is presented by RTE’s chief economics correspondent George Lee, is that it is only a matter of when, not if, oil reserves run out.
Gasoline refinery expansions scaled back
With Congress and the White House pushing to increases the use of ethanol, the oil industry is scaling back its plans to expand refineries - which could keep gasoline prices high, possibly for years to come.
Gaza civilians fear isolation, supply shortages
Many of Gaza's residents have begun hording supplies of fuel and basic foodstuffs. Nonetheless, the city's merchants say that sales have plunged, possibly because many are turning to aid organizations to supply their needs."I haven't sold a thing all day," said a store owner in Gaza. "There's no one to sell it to. People are afraid the shooting will resume any minute and since no one has any money, things can only get worse."
Fuel scarcity bites as Nigerian strike looms
Kolawole Adeosun slept overnight in his minibus waiting to buy petrol in Nigeria's largest city Lagos, but he supports the strike which has caused the fuel scarcity across Africa's top oil producer.The strike by fuel tanker drivers, which was in its fourth day on Sunday, is a prelude to an indefinite general strike due to start on Wednesday in the world's eighth largest oil exporter to protest against rising prices and privatisations.
Battles brewing on Capitol Hill over U.S. energy policy
President George W. Bush’s immigration plan may have hogged the headlines, but the real wrangling in Congress last week was over the direction of U.S. energy policy.
Democrats Think You’re Too Stupid To Figure Out Which Cars To Drive
When given a choice, Americans are overwhelmingly choosing the luxury and convenience of less fuel efficient vehicles over the fuel savings of more efficient vehicles like hybrids. And as for America being in a fuel crisis? It’s not much of a crisis when Americans are actually driving more during these times of high gas prices rather than less.
Peak Oil Short - a peak oil video
The Government Attacks Biodiesel And Its Users!
There have been a few different stories in the news recently showing how the government is giving biodiesel and its users a very hard time, from actually banning it all together in one state to giving out $2000 in fines to biodiesel users.
U.N. head links climate change, Darfur
Climate change is partly to blame for the conflict in Sudan's Darfur region, where droughts have provoked fighting over water sources, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in an editorial published Saturday.
Curly bulbs are bright spot in conservation effort
At more than $10 a piece, there was no way a CFL could ever pay for itself despite using less than one-quarter the electricity of an incandescent bulb. And the technology was still primitive. The bulbs were slow to respond when the switch was thrown, slower still to reach full illumination, and seldom lasted as long as promised. The light did not have the warmth of an incandescent bulb.Some — horror of horrors — interfered with TV remote control signals.
But the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance saw their potential, and paid manufacturers $3 per bulb to encourage additional production and lower the cost to consumers. When the 2000-2001 energy crisis hit, the region was ready.
Any one else see this?
http://www.ksfy.com/news/local/8027942.html
Quote:
Gas Shortage Leads to Empty Pumps
For most of us, rising prices have been the major concern when it comes to gas. But on Friday, it was a different problem plaguing some Sioux Falls drivers.
As people pulled up to a gas station is southeast Sioux Falls, they were greeted with signs they didn't expect. Stations out of gas because of a shortage.
Gas terminals are empty across South Dakota. From Sioux Falls to Yankton to Sioux City, they are all out. And tankers cannot find anywhere to fill up.
"More so this summer it seems and they're saying it's supposed to get worse before it gets better but there's just not enough fuel coming down the pipeline into the delivery system," said BP owner Shane Oien.
Interesting. They don't really say why there's no gas.
Everyone seems kinda calm about not having gasoline. On a side not, I saw my first Valero gas station close in the KC metro area which surprised me since Valero specializes in refining sour crudes. I would think they would be doing the best in a sour crude world.
I see more and more gas stations closing around the metro. It's not a huge rush to close down, but one by one their numbers are diminishing.
Where you used to have two different stations across from each other, I'm starting to see only one. I have mentioned before that many BP stations had closed around the metro which does not surprise me since they are usually several cents more than the other stations.
A strange thought just occurred to me after reading your post and looking back at the lead comment with link to gas stations running out of gas...Do gas stations going out of business increase, decrease, or change the MOL? My first thought is that the MOL would be decreased by a tiny amount as you can't run a holding tank down to zero (or, it's uncouth to). So consolidating stations would seem to lower MOL. But more importantly, it will decrease storage capacity and increase the reliance on JIT fuel delivery, causing a decrease in resiliency in the system. i.e. since there is now only one station, with it's normal fuel supply, there is no other station to go to when the first station runs out.
I agree, I think that fewer gas stations will reduce the MOL by a small amount. This will be true up until we reach the point where it is actually hard to find a gas station. Then, if people have to go out of their way to get gas, our situation will be worse. We're nowhere close to that yet. At least here in Houston, it seems that there is a gas station on every block. Often, multiple gas stations are side by side or across the street, and most convenience stores sell gas as well.
You've made a reasonable argument but as we've often learned, reasonable arguments are often contradicted by fact. Want to do everyone some good deed? See if you can validate your argument from actual data. It's a good argument but basing conclusions from it is premature until we can validate it. Good luck!
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
I think the oil shocks from the 70s provide some good data. Gas station closings and "out of gas" signs, coupled with rising gas prices, induce panic buying and hoarding, drawing down stocks faster, increasing the likelihood of dipping below the MOL.
Well, where is the data? Just because certain events occurred doesn't mean they were related unless we can show that. I'd love to see some correlation between these factors that looks reasonable so where is it?
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
This is terrible: what is MOL? I'm hoping, hoping, hoping it's not too obvious.
You're better than me. I was afraid to ask.
Minimum Operating Level. The oil products (gasoline, etc.) required to keep the system operating. Pipelines full, barges of gasoline in transit from refinery to the filling station nearest you, quarter full tanks at the deport nearest you to fill up the gasoline tankers.
I THINK it also includes gasoline at the corner filling station as well (it should).
The minimum inventory required to prevent spot shortages.
Best Hopes for Spot Shortages and High Prices (except at harvest time),
Alan
Minimum Operating Level of the Distribution pipelines. It goes in one end, they take it out at the other. But the pipe has to be full to work. Last figure I saw was 185 million barrels. That's what's in the pipeline you can't take out. The minimum amount necessary to keep the fuel flowing through the pipeline. In other words, if you have 195 million barrels, you can only take out 10 million barrels.
How our distribution pipelines work.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/ulsd/pdf/appendix_c.pdf
Clearly, the pumps were empty because of a "lack of demand." Nobody wants the stuff.
In any case back in the real world where most of us live, spot shortages are just a sign of being barely above MOL. Nationwide, we have less than two days of supply in excess of MOL. So, in some areas we are going periodically drop down very close to MOL, resulting in empty gas stations. We saw it here in Dallas when gasoline was being shipped in tanker trucks up to Chicago.
The East Coast could be a real problem. Expect to see tanker truck convoys of gasoline headed to the East Coast from other regions.
Let's see:
Door #1: We will continue to see--essentially forever--an exponential rate of increase in the consumption of and import of a finite fossil fuel supply: http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/28/Data_4weeks.png
OR
Door #2: At some point, we will see a bidding war for the declining net export capacity of crude oil and petroleum products: http://static.flickr.com/97/240076673_494160e1a0_o.png
Some industry "spin" on the refinery issue....
Oil industry sees drop in future gasoline demand, is scaling back refinery expansions
They learned that one from the Saudi's who are scaling back their infrastucture expansion as there just isn't enough demand for oil. They also announced black is white and 2+2=5.
Balck is white or rather white is black, here is how I can prove it. Stare at the sun with one eye, If you lock your eye on it, you will soon get the phase shift from the staring at the object in this case a Medium level Yellow star we call the sun, but it is bright white to most of your normal eyes and then the stare turns it to black.
Your eyes flicker at 3 times per second It is the Human eye's refresh rate. When you stare at an object you get tunnel vision and you get the phase shift of white to black and other neat things going on. Staring without turning off your refresh rate is hard to do when you look at the sun, and don't do it for longer than a few seconds, it can leave spots before your eyes. I think that the limit is a bit over 3 to 9 minutes of staring and your eyes recieve permanant damage from looking at the sun. Call me crazy I can make a decent sextant with on hand and plot courses that way.
I'm convinced that gasoline shortages will be the tipping point for awareness - one can argue all day about how much oil is left in the world, but if you can't buy gas when you "need" it these esoteric discussions quickly vaporize.
I expect any news about local shortages to be contained locally - in other words, the national MSM will avoid any mention of such things for as long as possible. If some dumb shlub in Sioux Falls gets caught with kiddie porn on his computer it will be the headline on CNN, but gasoline shortages won't be mentioned until that elephant-in-the-room starts sitting on people.
The MSM will report on this problem when the elephant is peeling squashed carcasses off its feet and throwing them at the wall. IOW, when there are riots and shootings in the gas station queues.
I suspect you dropped an 'h' and mistyped, if you are trying to point to what the MSM needs to have happen to stimulate appropriate coverage.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
I'm convinced that gasoline shortages will be the tipping point for awareness ...
Hm, they'll produce heat, but I'm not sure they'll produce light. It all depends on what the citizenry believes has caused the shortages. This will be greatly influenced by the media. PO will be low down on the list of causes presented.
Hmmm...Saudi Arabia's oil consumption rises 6.2% in 2006 (via 321energy)
110k b/d more - not terribly significant right now. OTOH, over time...
Also, let's not forget Door #3, more complicated and expensive sources (biofuel, CTL, etc.) increasing over time. It's not mutually exclusive with Door #2. Not a simple picture, a messy one.
From 2005 to 2006, the top five net exporters (half of net exports in 2006) showed a 1.3% decline in production, a 5.5% increase in consumption and a 3.3% decrease in exports (Total Liquids, EIA).
We are working on a paper on the top five. The high case production rate will be no decline. Assuming a 5% rate of increase in consumption per year, this would mean about a 3% annual decline in net exports.
I don't have the hard numbers yet on HL projections, but if we assume a 5% annual decline rate in production (especially when Russia starts declining), and a 5% annual rate of increase in consumption, exports by the top five would be at more or less zero in about 14 years. This would be a decline rate of about 22% per year in net exports by the top five.
Mexico is currently showing a 16% annual decline rate in exports (down 18% from 1/06 to 4/07), and from 2000 to 2005, the UK showed an annual decline rate of 60% per year in net exports.
So the projected 22% decline rate would be between these two real life case histories.
IMO, the very lifeblood of the world industrial economy--net crude oil and petroleum product exports--is draining away in front of our very eyes. The only question is how soon the patient is going to die.
It does look dire at 22%/year, but consider the situation of the exporters: most of them are major importers of finished goods and food. They won't be able to maintain domestic consumption increases in the face of import prices rising in step with oil prices. This will restrain the domestic growth and put the export decline closer to the total rate of decline.
Not that we don't have plenty of problems which needed action years ago, but we may not be in such a bad situation as you think.
>The East Coast could be a real problem. Expect to see tanker truck convoys of gasoline headed to the East Coast from other regions.
I haven't seen any shortages yet, and pump prices have declined by a few pennies. Traffic is crazy with morning rush hour starting at about 5:45 AM and ending about 10 AM, evening RUSH hour starts about 3:15 PM and ends about 8 PM. On the flip side, commuter train traffic is up, but its not having any noticable impact on commuting traffic. It seems that traffic congestion is getting worse despite the higher prices and slowing economy.
In Michigan there are some "Share-A-Ride" lots along the Interstates where people who carpool can leave their cars. They are as full as I've ever seen them.
A NY Times article about online shopping:
Online Sales Lose Steam as Buyers Grow Web-Weary
One of the reasons they are Web-weary:
Or maybe to make up for high delivery costs, because of fuel prices?
they wish consumers would become web-weary. Their main advertisers are real stores. Of course, Internet shopping prices have to be corrected for shipping costs-- but going to the mall isn't free, either.
If efficiency is the goal, then internet beats brick-and-mortar every time.
We have debated that frequently here, and at the very least, the jury is still out.
Unless you are buying something that does not require physical delivery (a song download, a pr0n subscription), the Internet does not beat brick and mortar "every time." Maybe hardly any of the time.
Someone is going to have to take the item to your door. Is it really more efficient to have a big delivery truck doing it, as opposed to you driving to the mall to get it?
There are other costs as well. Our infrastructure was designed to work on the "city center" model. There are railroads, waterways, and heavy-duty highways to get the goods to the malls and shopping districts.
But if people are selling door to door, a la eBay...suddenly you have big delivery trucks traveling residential streets that were never designed to carry the load or the traffic. It wears out the roads quicker, causes traffic slowdowns, etc.
My bet is Internet shopping is not more efficient, at least if you're talking energy use. And eventually shipping prices will reflect that, when they can't afford to keep eating the fuel price increases.
As one that manages a small business, I would believe that shopping on the net does save energy in a lot of cases.
1. First premise: a large truck brought the goods (TV, clothing item, book, tool, etc.) from the main distribution center to a store that you can drive to. Likewise in net shopping a truck will bring the same item to a Fed Ex Ground, UPS, or DHL distribution center in or near your city.
2. Second: In driving to the store a certain amount of fuel is used, say 10 mile round trip at 20mpg equals 1/2 gallon of gas.
3. Third: In net shopping a smaller delivery truck (for items up to 150 lbs by Fed Ex Ground, UPS, DHL, etc.) that is diesel powered travels from their distribution center to a neighborhood making many deliveries in one area. This truck is probably getting 12 mpg, but goes only a mile between deliveries. So the incremental fuel usage is only 1.0 gal / 12 mpg or 0.08 gallons. A delivery truck may make 50 deliveries and go 50 miles in a large city. Even small cities like Fargo, ND have a small distribution center whose truck trailers usually arrive by train from the east or west.
For this reason I believe net shopping can save fuel.
For my company I formerly made trips to various supply companies on my way home from work to pick up materials & parts. I would use about a gallon of gas going 12 to 15 miles to two or three places in the company pickup truck. We changed to doing much more net ordering and paying for delivery because the labor cost was less than the shipping charges. I am also convinced that energy is saved due to the above reasons. UPS and Fed Ex come past our shop building everyday on the way to other businesses.
But most people don't live in cities. They live in suburbia.
It's true that one truck may make several deliveries, but people generally buy several things when they go to the mall. I think that kind of balances out.
That equation is likely to change as fuel prices rise and labor gets cheaper. Right now, a lot of suppliers are eating the higher fuel costs. They think it's temporary, and are waiting for prices to go back down.
Other businesses being the the key words. Our transportation system was set up for business-to-business freight shipping. Doorstep to doorstep is something else, especially with so many people living in farflung subdivisions.
Well, just before I retired from UPS last year, my delivery route in the suburbs would routinely go out with 130 delivery stops, 20 pickup stops, and I would, on average travel app 75 miles. So, I think the productivity factor might be a little higher than what you would think. As far as increasing fuel costs giving an advantage to bricks and mortar, I'm not so sure. Consumers fuel costs might actually rise fractionally higher than delivery companies. UPS and FedEX are much more efficient than consumers at driving to stores, trying to combine trips, take direct routes, parking close to destination, etc. As far as suppliers absorbing fuel costs, I know that UPS's rates will almost immediately reflect an increase in fuel costs via a surcharge, and in my experience shippers would rapidly adjust their rates, a supplier trying to buck the trend would be taking an unnecessary gamble trying to game the market, but usually you will see all major carriers apply surcharges in unison. You're spot on about a bias towards business to business and away from residence to residence or business to residence, but...I know that UPS has been actively experimenting with a wide variety of alternative fuel vehicles for decades now, there is an institutional culture that is very nimble in that regard, and they have the scale and distribution infrastructure to implement the most cost-effective fuel available on pretty short notice. And from everything I can see, even with their diversification, they plan to be in that business for a long time.
Yeah, and I think the consumers are going to be forced to move closer in, back to to something closer to the original settlement patterns.
What about UPS's customers? I've posted several articles recently, about how high fuel costs are killing businesses, especially small businesses. Some of them have added a surcharge, but most are afraid to, for fear of losing customers.
Amazon.com still offers free shipping for orders over $25. Perhaps they are raising their prices to make up for it...but I haven't noticed it if they are. I buy some things regularly from them, and the price is going down, not up.
A lot of online businesses, like Amazon, are still in the stage where the emphasis is on market share rather than profits. Of course, this only makes sense if you think the pyramid scheme will go on forever.
Such delivery routes are ideal for battery-powered vans. It looks feasible to eliminate a huge amount of the fuel at the ends of the delivery chain that way.
Many online retailers consider my area (of UK) to be 'remote' and impose hefty delivery charges. We can often opt to use the postal service instead which has standard pricing everywhere. It also avoids an extra van as the postal van passes the house daily.
As someone whose wife runs a successful eBay business I'd like to chip in and say most eBayers don't use UPS or FEDEX - most use the USPS - rates are good, and the postal van that both picks up and delivers is running past the houses anyway.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
This truck is probably getting 12 mpg, but goes only a mile between deliveries
Not in my neighborhood !
The UPS (first back in after Katrina, and still most reliable, so the favorite) truck will often back two and even three deliveries from a single stop. Then go down 3 blocks, find another illegal parking spot and make another delivery or two.
The driver often has to walk a half block or even a block to make deliveries, but it works !
This is one of the hidden energy savings from TOD.
Best Hopes for energy efficient Urban forms,
Alan
by the time people are motivated to to something like this, we're all be too poor to be buying crap on the net and having it delievered to our homes.
it's like the "work from home telecommute" crap people throw out so much. by the time it makes sense, the sort of jobs that you can telecommute to won't exist because the consumer economy will have collapsed.