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DrumBeat: June 25, 2007
Posted by Leanan on June 25, 2007 - 9:03am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: pakistan electricity [list all tags]
BP's number-cruncher bows out with harsh words for Whitehall
Most of us have a vague idea that North Sea oil production has lately been slowing down. But by how much?I looked up the answer in BP's annual Statistical Review of World Energy, published earlier this month. Packed full of information about global energy markets, it is a highly authoritative data source in a notoriously murky area.
Well, the UK's ability to extract the black gold is declining at an alarming rate. This country pumped an average of 1.63m barrels a day during 2006 - 10 per cent less than the year before.
I get lots of letters from people in various corners of the nation who are hysterically disturbed by the continuing spectacle of suburban development. But instead of joining in their hand-wringing, I reply by stating my serene conviction that we are at the end of the cycle — and by that I mean the grand meta-cycle of the suburban project as a whole. It's over. Whatever you see out there now is pretty much what we're going to be stuck with. The remaining things under construction are the last twitchings of a dying organism.It is not an accident that the housing bubble coincided with the phenomenon of Peak Oil.
[Australia's] ABC Enterprises will also be showcasing another environmental program at MIPTV: Peak Oil, which is part of the ABC network’s long-running Four Corners series and is produced by its current-affairs department. “Whereas Crude is more of an event program, Peak Oil is more from the current-affairs point of view,” explains Dacey. “It looks at ... why oil prices have been so high lately, and how long the world has got before oil runs out. It also investigates the issue of unexploited reserves, and why investment hasn’t been going on since the ’90s to look for more oil.”
Oil Price Surge a Risk as Non-OPEC Production Peaks
Oil prices have a "substantial" risk of surging higher and boosting inflation because non-OPEC production may soon peak, the Bank for International Settlements said in its annual report."The short-run risks of sharp increases in oil prices remain substantial," the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS said in its 77th annual report today. "The impact of oil price increases could be significant; a recent analysis estimates that a supply- induced doubling of prices would boost inflation in emerging Asia by as much as 1.4 percent points above baseline."
Lawmakers ask for natural gas regulation
Lawmakers seeking tougher oversight of commodity exchanges assert in a report that "excessive speculation" dealt a fatal blow to Amaranth Advisors LLC, which helped drive up heating bills last winter before it lost some $6 billion on its natural gas bets.The hedge fund at times last year controlled 40 percent or more of the natural gas contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and as much as 75 percent in one month, according to the 135-page report by the Senate's permanent subcommittee on investigations.
Stormy Weather Ahead for Oil Prices
Two down, 15 to go; that's this year's bleak tropical storm outlook. Two years ago, Hurricane Katrina wreaked havoc on the economy. By comparison, thank goodness, our two named storms this year, Andrea and Barry, have been relative powder puffs. But commodities tracker Sean Broderick cautions that the weather so far could well be the calm before a mega-storm, a prelude to what he sees as "another wild ride in energy prices this summer."
Are high gasoline prices the result of soaring world demand, as oil companies contend, or are there other causes? The answer seems to be both. And among the "other" causes are the oil companies themselves.
While Honda announced that it is discontinuing the gasoline-electric version of the Accord because of slow sales, the Toyota Prius continues to defy gravity. Once considered a novelty, the Prius is selling more strongly now than at any time in its seven-year history. Its volume is running at twice the rate of a year ago and Toyota now expects that Prius will outsell every single domestic passenger car nameplate except for the Chevy Impala.Why the diverging fortunes? Honda was selling added performance in the Accord hybrid, which didn't resonate with consumers the way that better fuel economy does. Besides, the hybrid Accord looked like every other Accord, meaning consumers couldn't get credit for being "green" when they parked it in front of their homes. The Prius, by comparison, can't be confused with anything else.
Report: S. Korea extracts gas hydrate
South Korea has extracted gas hydrate — an alternative fuel source Seoul hopes might help reduce its heavy dependance on oil imports — in its eastern territorial waters, a news report said Sunday.
Qatar's economic boom continues supported by massive investment flows and rising oil and gas exports
The country is enjoying the fruits of a development strategy set in the 1990s that combines economic openness with a clear economic diversification plan and institutional and democratic reforms. That strategy, together with favourable energy prices and high investment spending, is likely to see the pace of growth sustained at high levels over the next five years. The size of the economy could double again by 2012.
Kuwait oil company plans to hike output of heavy crude
The KOC's Deputy Managing Director for Administrative and Financial Affairs, Ali Al-Shimiri, stated during an honorary celebration of media figures late on Saturday, that the company seeks developing its production output to reach 50,000 barrels per day by 2011, 250,000 barrels per day by 2015, and the final target is 700,000 barrels per day by 2020.
Thailand to Buy Power From China in Next Decade to Meet Demand
Thailand, Southeast Asia's second- biggest economy, plans to buy electricity from China for the first time starting in 2017 because the country isn't building its own plants fast enough to meet an expected surge in demand.
Deutsche Bank analyst Mark Lewis told ABC TV the coal industry still has a future, despite a global push towards other cleaner energy."There is no way in which the world can generate the energy it needs realistically over the next 50 or even 100 years without coal still being a significant part of the mix," Mr Lewis said.
Australia: Jail threat cuts petrol price
THE price of petrol hit a seven-week low today as motoring groups called for anyone found guilty of fuel price fixing to be jailed.
Venezuela First in Crude Reserves
Venezuela has ratified its potentials to become the country with the largest crude reserves worldwide, as certification of Carabobo bloc, one of the four fields in the Orinoco Oil Belt, was completed.
China focuses on oil, not Sudanese needs
CNPC has invested billions in oil-related infrastructure here in Paloich, including the 900-mile pipeline from the Paloich oil fields to the tanker terminal at Port Sudan on the Red Sea, a tarmac road leading to Khartoum, and a new airport with connecting flights to Beijing.But they have not invested in much else here.
Locals live in meager huts, eating peanuts with perch fished out of the contaminated Nile. There is no electricity. A Swiss charity provides healthcare. An American aid group flies in food and mosquito nets. Most children do not go to school. There is no work to be found. Petrodar, for one, has its own workers – almost all of whom are foreigners (mostly Chinese, Malaysians, and Qataris) or Sudanese northerners. The consortium hires Paloich residents only rarely, for menial jobs.
China targets energy hogs in offices, cars
UNDER heavy pressure to cut energy consumption, China is now turning the spotlight on construction projects, the transport sector and government buildings.
Sarasota company fights high gas prices with electric cars
At around $3 per gallon, the price of gasoline is both a boon and a bane to Sarasota-based solar and electric vehicle maker Cruise Car Inc.The benefit is obvious: As the numbers on the signboards outside stations move upward, more and more people start looking for ways to ditch their gas guzzlers, be they eight-cylinder sport utility vehicles or two-seater golf carts.
But because Cruise Car's parts are made in China and shipped around the world and cross-country to a Venice assembly plant, the rising cost of fuel means consumers may also have to pay more for what the two-year-old company's founder acknowledges is a largely unknown - and unproven - commodity.
Miners having a blast in Utah uranium rush
Utah mining prospector Kyle Kimmerle has more than a hunch that uranium will make him rich. It is a conviction so strong he has bet his house on it.'We literally spent every dollar we had in savings, hawked and sold our houses and put everything we owned into this. We went all in,' said Kimmerle, who runs a funeral home in this Canyonlands city. 'My wife is scared, but I'm not.'
He is among a rush of prospectors in the Colorado Plateau mineral belt who are thumping stakes into public land and registering claims, hoping to get rich on the back of record uranium prices.
Hawai`i: New laws scrutinize gas prices and boost tech
New Hawaii laws taking effect this weekend aim to scrutinize gas prices, fight genocide in Sudan and make the state's economy more high tech.Other laws will crack down on copper thieves, allow for onsite drug testing and allocate money for union pay raises.
With gas prices sticking around the $3-a-gallon mark, public transportation is packing in more and more riders.
High fuel prices sinking boaters
Kivell works for Sailaway Yachts at Captain’s Cove Seaport in Bridgeport, where he’s seen a recent decline in the sale of larger powerboats. He’s also noticed that many owners of large boats have resorted to "taking little harbor cruises on their inflatable dinghies while the boat just sits at the dock."With gas mileage ratings as little as a quarter-mile per gallon, large boat owners seem to have no choice but to limit their trips.
Tyson Foods and Syntroleum Launch Renewable Fuels Venture
The 50/50 venture intends to construct and operate multiple stand-alone commercial facilities capable of producing ultra-clean, high quality, next generation renewable synthetic fuels using Syntroleum's patented Biofining(tm) process, a "flexible feed/flexible synthetic fuels" technology. Feedstock primarily derived from animal fats, greases, and vegetable oils will be supplied by Tyson.
Calderon No Fox in Mexican Pension Crisis, Bid to Raise Taxes
Calderon, a former energy minister under Fox, says crude oil from the Gulf of Mexico buried in waters as deep as 1,500 meters (4,900 feet) represents the future of the oil industry. Pemex doesn't have the technology to drill so deep, and Calderon is seeking the help of companies such as Brazil's Petroleo Brasileiro SA to acquire it.
Pakistan: Power and political crisis
As far as the choking heat, as of mid-June, it has taken many lives, given tens of millions sleepless nights and extremely uncomfortable days in the absence of power outages, and made millions run around for water even in cities like Karachi. Excessive heat of course is a natural phenomenon linked to global warming. But power outages are certainly not.
Mobs flood Karachi streets in anger
Grid stations had shut down, underground cables were damaged, and feeders tripped as a result of which some city areas had no electricity for 24 hours after the rains.Residents streamed out on to the streets, burnt tires and other materials and blocked roads. Some enraged protesters also burnt a KESC vehicle and pelted local complaint centres with stones.
Mischief in Karachi mob teeters on ethnic violence
Some people reportedly tried to turn what started out as an angry protest against a lack of electricity after the rains into ethnic violence Sunday.The power outage sparked a violent reaction from affected residents near Al-Asif Square Sohrab Goth but then there were reports that unidentified gunmen made abortive attempts to turn the protest into ethnic clashes.
Ortega to Take Nicaragua out of Energy Crisis
President Daniel Ortega assured that Nicaragua will get rid of the "energy bankruptcy" in which the nation was driven by neoliberal governments, in the last 16 years.
The odd alliance aiding Nicaragua
Communism and shortages go together. When the price mechanism is tossed out and the planners take over, watch out! That lesson is being re-learned in Nicaragua, which recently installed Daniel Ortega back in power, and is experiencing power shortages.
Vietnam: Power shortage announced for July 1 to September 30
he Electricity of Vietnam Corporation (EVN) on June 22 announced that electricity shortages would occur from July 1 to September 30, 2007....To diminish the shortfall of electricity because of this reason, EVN plans to run gas-turbines by oil. However, once those turbines use oil as fuel, their capacity will reduce by half.
Venezuela Threatened by Bio-fuel
The use of agricultural products to elaborate ecological fuel becomes terrible for Venezuela because of its mainly agricultural dependency, assured Food Minister Rafael Oropeza.
Sri Lanka: Ceylon Petroleum Corporation urges Sri Lanka govt to increase fuel prices
Sri Lanka's government-owned Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) has been urging the government to increase fuel prices as the CPC is facing huge losses due to the rise of fuel prices in the world market.
India: Oil & Natural Gas Profit Falls on Fuel Subsidy Costs
Oil & Natural Gas Corp., India's biggest explorer, said fiscal fourth-quarter profit fell 13 percent after increasing payments to state-run refiners to share the cost of subsidizing fuel prices.
Energy crisis 'cannot be solved by renewables'
THE world is blinding itself to the reality of its energy problems, ignoring the scale of growth in demand from developing countries and placing too much faith in renewable sources of power, according to two leaders of the global energy industry.The chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell today calls for a “reality check”. Writing in The Times, Jeroen van der Veer takes issue with the widespread public opinion that green energy can replace fossil fuels.
Shell’s chief gives warning that supplies of conventional oil and gas will struggle to keep pace with rising energy demand and he calls for greater investment in energy efficiency.
Instead of a great conversion to wind power and solar power, Mr van der Veer predicts, the world will be forced into greater use of coal and much higher CO2 emissions, “possibly to levels we deem unacceptable”.
Friday of last week I had occasion to do brief battle on CNBC Morning Call with Steve Andrews co-founder of what is considered the most influential organization supporting "peak oil " the Hubert curve theory which predicts future oil availability. Surprisingly there is more than one such organization. And why should that be? The Wall Street Journal summed it up succinctly in an article appearing in the Sept. 14, 2006 issue, stating:"That argument known as 'peak oil theory' has provided intellectual backing for the boom in crude prices."
Trust Russia on energy, Putin tells Balkan countries
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday urged the Balkan countries of southeastern Europe to trust Russia as a reliable energy supplier, as he outlined plans for a major new gas pipeline through the region.
Trinidad and Tobago: No business as usual in energy
What is unfortunate about McGuire's article is that he does not take into consideration that Peak Oil phenomenon in world petroleum production is fast approaching. Shell, a large international oil company, sees this happening by the year 2025; the US Department of Energy thinks that this can be postponed to 2030 while other analysts see the date as somewhere between 2015 and 2020. What this means is that the predicted world demand for oil for 2030 of 121mb/d, increasing from current demand of 84mb/d, will be economically and geologically infeasible, impossible to satisfy. Hence, petroleum and its products will continue to fetch escalating prices with new and deleterious effects on the world's economies and politics.
Japan, Saudi Arabia Heighten Relations
Japan's presence in Saudi Arabia widened with investments in various projects exceeding $13 billion between April 2000 and March 2006. The latest investment of $9.8 billion is the PETRORabigh project, an equal joint venture between Saudi Aramco and Japan's Sumitomo Chemical Company that is set to become operational next year.
World Agencies on Energy Summit in Zagreb
As the battle for control over European energy markets and transport routes is moving to the Balkans, the Russian president pledged in Zagreb to develop the Black Sea area as a centre for the distribution of fuels, Reuters writes. At the summit Putin announced that Russia wants to play a crucial role in all forms of supply and production of energy in the region, stressing the close cultural and historical ties with the countries of the region, Reuters reports.
BP looks to emerge from rough few years
Today, oil production is in steady decline — about 6 percent a year — but the North Slope's largest operator, BP PLC, remains bullish about the future because of the region's untapped resources.But success starts with restoring public and employee faith in the company's ability to operate safely as it approaches the first anniversary of a major Prudhoe Bay shutdown that resulted from poor maintenance on transit pipelines.
New York State Renewable Energy Task Force Members Named
New York Lieutenant Governor David A. Paterson today announced the appointment of members to New York's Renewable Energy Task Force. Under Lieutenant Governor Paterson’s leadership, the goal of the Task Force will be to identify and recommend ways of expanding the state’s use of renewable energy and alternative fuels.
Rich nations blamed for global warming
Developed countries are hypocritical for criticizing China's greenhouse gas emissions while using the country's cheap labor to power industries that pollute, Asian business and government leaders said Monday.
Panama: Cold water on refinery plan
The EFE news agency reports that one of the oil refineries under discussion is now in doubt because the Mexican government has told the Panamanian ambassador in Mexico that the state-owned PEMEX oil company would have less oil to send for refining at the contemplated facility than had been previously predicted.
Gas prices fall sharply from May peak
The average price of gasoline across the country dropped about 11 cents over the last two weeks, according to a national survey released Sunday.Regular gasoline, which peaked at $3.18 in May, dropped to $3 a gallon, oil industry analyst Trilby Lundberg said. Mid-grade averaged $3.11, and premium was $3.22.
Automakers latch onto fuel-saving tech
A promising, if so far underwhelming, fuel-economy technology is gaining momentum as automakers, squeezed by social and political pressure, look under every rock to gain even a few tenths of a mile per gallon.The technology goes by various names but by any name does the same thing: shuts off fuel to some of an engine's cylinders when the vehicle needs only partial power.
Chavez predicts resistance war with U.S.
"We must continue developing the resistance war, that's the anti-imperialist weapon. We must think and prepare for the resistance war everyday," said Chavez, who has repeatedly warned that American soldiers could invade Venezuela to seize control of the South American nation's immense oil reserves.
Iran fuel import budget likely to run out soon
Iran will exhaust its annual budget for petrol imports by August 1, more than seven months before the financial year ends, if fuel consumption continues at the same pace, officials said in remarks published yesterday.
Kuwait oil minister faces axe but policy to stay
Kuwait's oil minister could be removed from office after a grilling by opposition MPs Monday, but the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member's oil policy is not expected to change dramatically, analysts said Sunday.
Australia: Gas shortage seen as symptom of wider energy woes
The peak body representing Australia's energy users says a gas shortage which is affecting large commercial users in the New South Wales Hunter Valley is just the symptom of a growing energy crisis across the country.
What did you do this past weekend to prepare? I, with my husband, three friends and a Mexican family of three planted six acres of butternut squash, baby pam pumpkins, corn, pinto beans, zucchini, beets, parsnips, turnips, sweet potatoes and other vegetables by hand. It took us about four hours. Just 496 more hours of this to equal one gallon of gas! My friends last just two hours because of fatigue and bad backs...
Sandiego, I spent this weekend getting prepared also. I scouted several gardens that I might raid when things get tough. ;-)
Ron Patterson
During the 30 years war, they switched to below ground crops because they could not be burned and were less likely to be pillaged. A good idea post peak. Also, every time I think about the 30 years war, I think what a great video game that would make. Turn Based Strategy, RPG as a mercenary soldier, resource management game, the potential is endless.
Ron-
I have been scouting also. Huge amount of wild plums within walking distance, and the abandoned apples are looking good. As a former Commercial Fisherman (the last hunter gathers on a major level), and avid mushroom hunter, it astounds me how little people know about food in the wild. People are terrified of mushrooms. I spent 200 days a year in a sleeping bag, and find the new age "vision quest" hilarious! Wow 3 days by yourself alone in the "wild".
We have a rails-to-trails bike path near our place that makes a 7 mile trip to the local town. Right now the cherries are ripe on many cherry trees along the path. We have picked a couple of gallons from trees that only the birds seem to pay attention to. Next come the plums, then the apples and blackberries. In the woods, if the spring is wet, are myriad types of mushrooms and other wild edibles. Lots for the picking for those who pay attention.
Made an offer on a 5 acre lot with brick ranch house, pond, garden & pasture located 7 miles from downtown. Holding thumbs - I am anticipating lots of competition.
If you get the house on 5 acres, check out Gene Logsdon book All Flesh is Grass. He gives an example of a couple with 5 acres and using rotational grazing for a horse, calf, flock of chickens and a pig complete with a garden and fruit trees.
I recommend also the classic work by Kain, "Five Acres and Independence." It was written during and in the context of how to survive the Great Depression, and in terms of page for page value, it is hard to beat.
Thanks for that, I will definitely check it out. My initial take would be:
1. Fish from pond
2. Chickens for eggs & occasional meat
3. Nubian goats for milk & occasional meat.
4. Milpas planting in the garden + tomatoes and more.
5. Orchards (apple, cherry, peach pecan)
Thats about it. I will have to get a small diesel tractor as the land does need lots of work and there is only one of me. In the future we can work out some kind of community gardening & sharing arrangement.
The garden I planted three weeks ago is sprouting nicely...corn, Roma tomatoes, lettuce, carrots and watermelon. The way corn prices are going, I can probably sell it for its equivalent in gold.
Kids are having a good time helping out and getting dirty.
You know...all these gardens need a name...you know like "Victory Gardens"? How about "PO Gardens" or "TOD Gardens"?
Any other ideas so we can tell our neighbors why we are planting all these gardens?
A young filmmaker friend of mine is doing a piece on energy in Maine with a peak oil slant. I invited him over to film my "peak garden" in July to demonstrate the possibility of growing a vast amount of one's own food without the use of fossil fuels.
I call it my "peak garden" because I'm gardening this year as if my life depended on it.
i dunno if calling it a po garden is such a good idea. if you search in the acronym finder, peak oil comes in 26th behind post office, purchase order, pissed off, piss off and put out, to name a few.
Ha...well if you mix in some manure, it really is a "po" garden!! How about Peak Gardens then?
Got in touch with a realtor about buying a 1.8 acre plot that's 6 miles from my brother's house. That's within biking distance. It's off on a dirt road where traffic is a lot lower, so hopefully it would attract less attention. Plant a garden, have a tiny house, and wait for TSTHTF.
Watered, weeded and harvested lettuce, arugula, peas, stawberries, blueberries, kale and herbs for drying.
Finished reading Gardening When it Counts
and got started on Barbara Kingsolver's Animal, Vegetable, Miracle
I really reccomend both as great summer reads.
A little hint to help reduce the strain on those backs:
Go to a sporting goods store and buy one of those plastic tubes they use to store golf clubs in golf bags. Also go to a store where you can buy a cheap funnel.
Get yourself a piece of duct tape and tape the funnel to the tube.
You now have yourself a stand-up seed planter! You can place a seed in a furrow with great precision, standing upright the whole time.
I have had and use such, it does help.
They called them Beer Bongs at college.
they sell a nifty little hand powered planter at our local tracker supply co. store.
It has a hooper for seeds, a wheel and a handlebar. different plastic attactments for various seeds , all for under $100. My buddy next door bought one, I borrowed it to plant corn.
Out of curiosity, do you till that land somehow? How do you keep weeds down? Do you ever water, and if not, what kind of mulch do you use?
This weekend we drove our car 800 miles, about as far as we've driven it the rest of the year till now. Last weekend we added charcoal to a few garden plots, put in teepees for the pole beans to climb, put down cocoa bean and straw mulches, and set up some soaker hoses. The broccoli is about done for the spring, the spinach didn't work out this year, the wheat is about done, and our peas are going nuts this year (it helps to keep the bunnies out!). I strongly recommend adding charcoal to your compost or to your plots.
Oh, and I got my first sting from one of our honeybees. I suspect it had something to do with wearing a blue shirt. I also recommend getting a beehive. They don't take much room, and so far not much work either. It's great fun to see them working hard in the morning and spot a bee in a nearby field and realize it's probably one of yours.
do you have a market for this? anyone can get that much in, it takes a helluva person to get it out and to market. best of luck
http://americanvalleygrowers.com/
You planted 6 acres in 4 hours? I'm curious, did you achieve this just using manual labour? I assume the soil was already prepared and ready.
Triumvirate of collapse - Economy, Ecosystem, Energy
Yes, the soil was ready. It is called muck soil and part of the black dirt region of Orange County, NY (adjacent to New Jersey and Pennsylvania). All together there are 800 acres. It was purchased by a non-profit organization, Global Country Farm. 200 acres are in the CRP/CREP program. 500 acres will be planted with corn and soybeans and grown organically. (We're getting a very late start due to funding issues). I am volunteering my time in exchage for being able to use some of the land to grow vegetables for myself, friends, the Mexican family who live on the property and the rest we will sell to others. There was a cover crop grown for three years which was tilled into the soil with a tractor. The planting of seeds was done by hand. The most difficult to plant were the 500 sweet potatoe slips as those required me to plant on my hands and knees. But this black dirt (glacial soil) is like butter to work with. It's so soft and pliable with a good amount of organic mass. There are also 11 greenhouses which have not been used for years in which we will get three going by this winter and attempt to grow cold tolerant vegetables Eliot Coleman style -- low tech. I would strongly recommend anyone interested in gardening to find a local farmer and strike some type of deal. I am still growing a large home garden, fruit trees, etc. but this experience is invaluable. Plus, I'm getting to know all the farmers in the area, the John Deere people, the Tractor Supply Company people etc. etc. I'm also looking for some black dirt to buy. It would really be great to get a group together to buy it in the fashion that gun clubs pool together money to buy land for hunting.
I think the brief Panama story is fascinating - a refinery won't be built because not enough oil will be available? And who said it?
Pretty hard to accuse the Mexican ambassador as being part of some fringe peak oil theory circulating around the murkier corners of the Internet.
Slowly, the reason why new refineries aren't really being rushed into construction in oil consuming countries will become too apparent. And which point, another reason will be found - whether it is the greens, or government interference in the free market, or something a bit more creative.
They are building them in the oil producing nations. The reason for that is because they can make more selling finished product. Watch for declines in crude export in excess of even WT's model as they stop selling crude and switch to only exporting finished product.(and a lot less than world demand, I would expect.)
Yes, refineries are being built in producing countries, but apart from Saudi Arabia and a few other favored Gulf states, not that many. The rich oil consuming nations just happen to be the countries that are also the source of the necessary technology and labor to build a profitable refinery - though obviously, China will likely break this 'monopoly.'
The point was, that a Mexican government official seems to be confirming the reality why refineries are not being built - the amount of oil being produced is declining.
It's because Mexico won't open up to the free market. They'd have more oil than they knew what to do with, if only they'd let capitalism work its magic. ;-)
Leanan, the problems in Mexico are more serious than most Americans realize. For starters, their army is disappearing:
JOURNAL: Open Source War Settles in North America
Mexico's army, due to low salaries ($330 a month) and bad conditions/treatment, already suffers an 8-9% desertion rate -- these deserters are left unpunished due to an inability to pursue, prosecute, and imprison. That rate is is expected to radically increase as the war with narco-guerrillas in northern Mexico heats up. As a hint of what's to come, between 2000 and 2006 (the Vicente Fox administration), of the 4,890 soldiers assigned to Federal police duties, all but 10 deserted (according to IAPA journalist Maria Idalia Gomez).
A Fragmented Opposition
"The Zetas don't ask the Gulf cartel permission for anything anymore. They simply inform them of their activities, whenever they feel like it." US law enforcement official, under condition of anonymity to Alfredo Corchado of the Dallas Morning News.
In contrast to the depletion of the Mexico's military, its non-state opposition is expanding rapidly. The Zetas (originally formed by 50 Mexican special operators, some with US training, recruited by the Gulf Cartel as enforcers) has ballooned to a network of 2000 members, including recruits from Guatemalan counter-insurgency forces called the Kabiles. Also, compared to the low rates of investment by the Mexican military in its recruits, the Zetas (according to US intelligence estimates) spend 50% of their substantial smuggling earnings on training, recruitment, intelligence gathering, and computer software. As a result, its operations have expanded to 24 Mexican states. In Nuevo Laredo alone, a focal point of smuggling, an estimated 200 Zetas with a support system of 300 are in operation.
Another sign of Mexico's decay, has been the arrival of a new paramilitary group called La Gente Nueva ("the new people"). Apparently loyalist (although it could be that this group is more about protection of its cut of smuggling revenue than support for the government), this network is composed of current and former police officers seeking revenge against the Zetas for their slaughter of policemen.
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/
Hello River,
This posting of mine was buried at the bottom of yesterday's Drumbeat, but is now a key breaking-news feature at Savinar's LATOC:
http://www.mexidata.info/id1416.html
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Blackwater Mercenaries on the USA-Mexico Border
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What I think makes it especially relevant is that this is a Mexican website, yet no mention of this on CNN and other US MSM. Can you see the Halliburton workcamps going 'live' shortly?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hi Bob, Yes, I can see a lot of things happening soon but none of them are good. No one paid any attention to this post...I suppose that they think a melt down in Mexico will not effect them.
For starters lots of auto parts are now made in Mexico. That begs the question: How will I get a new fuel efficient car if the auto companies cant get the parts to assemble it from Mexico? How will I get parts for my tractor to run the farm? How will I get parts for my Cat to repair the roads? How will my kids get to school because there are no parts to fix the school buses? If an Iraqi type insurrection starts in Mexico we are definitely going to feel the impact in many ways, including food. I could go on but I think you get the picture.
Not that they would have more than they know how to use, but they very well might have had more production in the in the coming years if indeed they had invested their returns in the oil business rather than having to give such a large chunk over to the government, no?
Perhaps. But would it be a good thing?
Iran is keeping the oil majors out, knowing it means production will be slower. They see it as saving part of their precious, one-time gift of geology for their children and grandchildren.
Leanan,
I appreciate your comments, posts and thinking, but I can't follow you on this one.
Can you explain how it is _Iran_ who is keeping majors out of Iran?
Facts:
- USA advocates sanctions on Iran
- USA limits American companies from working in Iran (legally)
- USA is putting a shadow of war on Iran making it difficult for others to invest long term in Iran
- Other (non-US) oil companies are already in Iran, regardless of the above difficulties
- Iran is subsidizing local oil consumption to the point that they have to start rationing, because consumption is growing faster than what they can allot to consumption out of their total production
So, again:
How is it that _Iran_ is keeping majors out.
How is _Iran_ saving their oil?
To me it looks like:
- USA is keeping oil companies out of Iran (for now)
- Iran is using more oil domestically than is sensible
That, based on the reports available in the news.
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Iran is keeping the oil majors out, knowing it means production will be slower. They see it as saving part of their precious, one-time gift of geology for their children and grandchildren.
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Starting a war (perhaps Nuclear) with the United States over the erichment of Uranium is a sure way to kill all their children and grandchildren.
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Iran is keeping the oil majors out, knowing it means production will be slower. They see it as saving part of their precious, one-time gift of geology for their children and grandchildren.
[/QUOTEBLOCK]
Starting a war (perhaps Nuclear) with the United States over the erichment of Uranium is a sure way to kill all their children and grandchildren.
Duh? Canterrel is in massive decline. Has nothing to do with Free Markets or Capitalism not being allowed in Mexico. Give me a break, Leanan, how can you have been here for years and still believe that crap? For you to say that, makes it feel like it's Night of the Living Dead. Are you a zombie Leanan? Have you lost your soul to American Propaganda?
Sarcasm alert.
I'm pretty sure the ;) symbol meant sarcasm. :)
Thank God. I thought I'ld dropped into an alternate reality or something. Don't do that, Leanan!
I'm serious in that that is how Wall St. (and probably Main St.) will see it. Even if refineries all over the place start shutting down due to lack of product, they won't blame peak oil, they'll blame NOCs that won't let IOCs in with their spiffy free-market created technology.
I'm an atheist. I don't have a soul!
Check out Summerland. I'm not what ever religion or group (Celtics or Druids or something) but I have memory of it, and when I ran across someone talking about it I tripped out. I'm a reincarnationist.(I think of it as a playgroundist) You have to have something to fill up that eternal life.
I think it's pagan, perhaps via the Celts. At the end of Lloyd Alexander's Prydain Cycle, everyone with magic has to go to the Summer Country. Which plecks off the teenaged sorceress Princess Eilonwy, since she's in love with a muggle.
Not if you don't have one. :)
Ha...and what, pray tell, drives you to all this PO-Awareness work?
If not having a soul drives one to become altruistic, then perhaps you are on to something.
Not the hope of reward, that's for sure. Now or in the future.
b traven's book about capitalism and mexico.....the treasure of the sierra madre........ we know how that turned out for bogey
The proposed refinery in Panama is currently undergoing a feasiblity study and, if accepted, is slated to begin construction early next year. It is to be built by the combined investments of Occidental Petroleum and the state of Qatar. Qatar wants a bigger share of Latin America business.
The refinery is to be located at the southern terminus of the existing trans-isthmian pipeline that runs across western Panama between Puerto Armuelles and Chiriqui Grande.
I don't believe that Mexico is a major player in these plans, and Qatar may in fact be happy to hear that they are somewhat opting out.
Your Iron Triangle at work -
'Rich Barker, a broker of SUVs, motor homes, trucks and imports at Patti's Car County on US 1 in Fort Pierce is one who describes current sales as terrible - in part because of the softening housing market and because of higher gas prices.
"It's not just me feeling this, everyone down the street is feeling it," Barker said. "It's a new reality that no one wants to talk about because everyone wants the public to feel secure and happy so they'll spend more."'
http://www1.tcpalm.com/tcp/business/article/0,2541,TCP_998_5600408,00.ht...
The storm is coming - but let's not scare anybody into preparing for it, since that means less profit now. This is part of what is so striking about the U.S. at this point - people can see what's coming, but discussing it is in nobody's short term interest.
This dynamic, while thoroughly normal, has reached extreme proportions in the U.S. - and Americans think that the rest of the world is merely a reflection of themselves. It isn't.
"The storm is coming - but let's not scare anybody into preparing for it, since that means less profit now. This is part of what is so striking about the U.S. at this point - people can see what's coming, but discussing it is in nobody's short term interest."
That sounds so sociopathic. Maybe that's what's wrong with America. We've become a sociopathic nation.
To be honest, I wonder about that. For example, the constant discussion about guns in terms of how Americans feel they are necessary - and the scorn of other societies, where guns are not common. Or the idea that what happened in New Orleans was not a publicly displayed failure of American society, but a vindication that only rugged individualists, guns in hand, can ensure their families safety in the face of lawless hordes.
And the seeming acceptance of torture, though forbidden and illegal according to the Constitution - that is deeply, deeply disturbing. Especially as the justification often hinges on 'defending' America from its enemies, a faceless group of people who can only be recognized by a government which can no longer afford the luxury of following its own laws.
I don't know - after a few weeks last summer in the U.S., it is no longer possible for me to extrapolate America's future as in the past. But the increase in prison rape jokes, entire forms of discourse such as 'bitch slap' (or all the variations on 'bitch' as a put down), the casual acceptance of violence in general, these may not be so easily recognized within the culture as outside of it.
America has always tended towards extremes (lynching has not quite returned to its previous role of public entertainment on a warm summer night), but there may be something more going on. For example, several Germans I recently talked to were amazed at the lack of any news about Iraq in the media they were exposed, whether in Florida or Seattle or NYC. This lack of public discussion of what is being done seems to be a necessary condition to ensure that there is no discussion in the future.
It's because it's bad news, and nobody wants to hear bad news.
We don't have news any more in this country, we have "info-tainment."
Honestly, I think today's media would never have broken Watergate or Iran-Contra. They're too busy covering Paris, Britney, and the latest pretty missing white woman.
It's pretty hilarious (sad) when "The Jon Stewart Show" has more truthful news than the standard MSM.
The Jon Stewart Show is picked up by one of our networks here in New Zealand now, and I have had that exact same thought when comparing it to CNN and other MSM news programs we also pick up on Sky TV...
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
For anyone that doesn't know, the real name is The Daily Show with Jon Stewart.
http://www.comedycentral.com/shows/the_daily_show/index.jhtml
The lack of reporting is because of a lack of competition in the news market.
arn't there something like 6? major news operations now.
back when nixon was around it was more like 300.
It means that independant journalists cannot sell a story to as many newspapers, if they get shot down by the big 6, then they don't eat.
It also doesn't help that the big six are owned by even larger corporations.
I think the problem may be the opposite: too much competition. And deregulation. It's capitalism run amok.
The news divisions of the major networks used to be run as a sort of public service. They weren't really expected to earn a profit.
Now, they are. They've become part of big corporations that expect every department to turn a profit.
CNN, for example, has been forced to go more entertainment-oriented, as Fox News ate away their market share. Larry King Live, a celebrity interview show, is the top-rated CNN program. They spun off Headline News for those who preferred straight news, and now even Headline News is running info-tainment like Nancy Grace.
The network new shows have been battered by the cable news channels, and they, too are feeling the pressure to go info-tainment. Hence Katie Couric where they once had Walter Cronkite.
PBS probably has the best news these days, and it's not a coincidence that they don't have to worry about ratings or market share.
In a way, we have only ourselves to blame. They're only giving us what we want. And our eyes glaze over and we reach for the remote when news about Iraq comes on, so it's quick, cut to a story about Anna Nicole.
This is an important and often overlooked point. I always hear bloggers railing against the MSM. Conservatives complain of "liberal media bias", liberals complain about "corporate owned media" and both feel like they are not properly represented by the media.
Very few people look at the fact the these large media outlets are businesses, and they give us what we want. We vote with our remotes and the results are clear. We like bleach blond news anchors, aggressive confrontational pundits, and stories about "famous" Hollywood-types and missing white women. Car chases and fires are also popular in the short term, as well as any story featuring the rescue of an animal.
Sigh, I wasn't born a doomer, but watching the deevolution of the media and our political system over the last 20 years has turned me into one.
Don't become a Buddhist. The world doesn't need more Buddhists. Do practice compassion. The world does need more compassion. -- Dalai Lama
Television works best as an entertainment medium, with video images that capture an audience's attention. The televised news, therefore, has to be entertaining, and it has to have good video to go with it. There is no guarantee that the most important news will meet this criteria. On the other hand, CNN will clean up in the ratings with Larry King's interview with Paris Hilton this week.
Sometimes video can communicate news well, as with weather radar or satellite photos. Most of the time, written words work better. The brain has to actually do some work to handle text.
And the decline in newspaper subscriptions, newspaper budgets, in the US? Is it all because of the popularity of the intertubes, or are American brains becoming lazier?
Don't become a Buddhist. The world doesn't need more Buddhists. Do practice compassion. The world does need more compassion. -- Dalai Lama
For me, it's definitely the Internets. I used to buy several papers a day, or at least grab them after others were done with them. Now, I don't bother. I read it all online. It's cheaper, and I don't get ink on my fingers.
I still read (skim selectively) the NYT, WSJ and sometimes the FT. Most of it IS junk, but some very worthwhile stuff leaks through occasionally, including on PO. But if I were forced to choose between these and the net, it would be a total no-brainer. On the darker side, I don't think this situation on the net will continue. There will be ever more intense efforts to throttle and control this medium. Don't grow overly dependent on it it. (But please don't ask what choice you have.)
TV I don't watch at all unless it's a clip posted on YouTurbe or the like. Actually, I watch it ten minutes a year, when we stay in motels going to and from WV to see my daughter. I flick thru all the channels, get completely disgusted, and that's it for another year. I have a friend
who gets mad at me because I don't follow all the stuff on TV. But why should I care about the Paris Hilton when I've never even been to Paris?
Forgot to add: one of the things slipping thru, in particular in WSJ, are hints of panic re the economy. I saw the word "cliff" as in "edge of" in today's.
I'll jump in here -
'They're only giving us what we want. And our eyes glaze over and we reach for the remote when news about Iraq comes on....'
I think far too many people are forgetting a war which was finally shut down due to popular will, the one America 'lost.'
That war was pretty much the first one in human history broadcast without effective censorship within a democracy.
And that experience confirmed a lot of truisms about ensuring the reality of war remain very far from public discourse.
The German media shows much more 'reality' about war, not merely in Iraq, and it is not a question of protecting children or sensitive people from that reality.
The American media isn't showing anything like the images published in Der Spiegel or Die Zeit - they tend to be merely a reflection of what happens in a war, a reminder of why war is wrong.
Look at the classic Vietnam images, combining reality with something more - a feeling of responsibility, pictures documenting what we were doing, not the enemy. An enemy which just happened to be the people who were living in their own land.
There is no way that any functional government, pursuing what it sees as a necessary war, will again voluntarily let its citizens see the reality of what their government is doing.
And that censorship runs deep - 'protecting' viewers from the gruesome reality of what is actually happening to real people, for example, is just part of the common censorship ruling the American media. Censorship which püurports to reflect civilized conventions, ones beyond any reasonable discussion, but which serves the brutal logic of war.
I haven't forgotten it. The difference is the draft. Or lack thereof.
Personally, I still think the difference was lack of censorship and active participation of the citizenry, in part because of the experiences of the civil rights movement in forcing change.
Drafts are an entirely normal part of war - most wars involve drafting, as most people won't voluntarily become soldiers.
Now, if we want to discuss the baby boom and their active self-interest in avoiding risking themselves, it is a valid topic - like Cheney, who had better things to do.
Hey, you have to admit, Katie Couric's legs are a lot more beautiful than Walter's.... and PBS had funding cuts because it doesn't "have to worry about ratings or market share."
Everyone is talking about Rupert Murdoch buying the WSJ and the Dow Jones..
Nobody seems to be asking WHY he is buying (trying to corner) the financial news outlets.
http://www.observer.com/2007/times-responds-news-corp-slam-are-you-kiddi...
I'm not a lawyer, but it seems to me our coroporate law giving a corporation the rights of a "person" has turned us into a nation of sociopaths. Corporations have the legal right of a person, but not a person's ethical responsibilities. Corporate officers are responsible for enhancing profits. What do we call a person who's decisions are based soley on personal gain? A sociopath.
It seems to me that if a corporation is found guilty of any criminal act, the proper legal action should be that all corporate assets are forfeit to and confiscated by the state, to be liquidated at auction to fund a corporate victims compensation fund. The creditors and shareholders would be left with nothing -- but I suppose that they could go after management in a civil suit to attempt to recover some fraction of what they lost.
We seem to have no trouble confiscating the property of drug dealers when they are busted, why should corporations be held to a different standard?
Sociopathic criminals are locked away for life -- and thus effectively have their lives shut down as far as their involvement in the outside economy is concerned -- if they cross certain lines of criminality. Why should corporations be treated any differently?
If this outcome were a real possibility, I can guarantee you that shareholders would get a lot more activist, and creditors would look very, very carefully at a corporation before lending it money.
Which all raises the question: Why is it not already this way? I'm afraid we all know the answer: Life is not fair, "justice for all" is a slogan not a reality, and those that have the gold make the rules.
Corporations were actually given personhood after a Supreme Court decision, Santa Clara County v. Southern Pacific Railroad Company, in which the court reporter erroneously summarized the Court’s findings of law in the head notes that personhood for corporations was found in the fourteenth amendment. A truly disastrous development for this country.
For a short summary see:
http://www.straightdope.com/columns/030919.html
This a better article explaining the decision:
http://www.thomhartmann.com/theft.shtml
This theft is still going on today, witness the recent decisions by the Supreme Court by a slim 5 member Christian fundamentalist reactionary majority (was that enough bile?) that pretty much gives corporations and the neoconservatives everything they want. When I was at the University of Minnesota Law School I had a professor for civil procedure, Roy Brooks, who contended that all higher level decisions are based on what is called “policy analysis”. That is rather than precedent it is an agenda of policy considerations, - for example how will this decision help the economy? - that dictate how a case is decided. Therefore the desired outcome decided first and then case law is found and distinguished to back up the decision. As a “conservative” back then I was repulsed by this notion that something other than “finding the law” drove court decisions. How naïve I was.
The most important case was Henry Ford vs The Dodge Bros.
'The most famous case in American corporate law, decided in the Supreme Court of Michigan in 1919. It posed a short but complicated question: what is a corporation supposed to do, and who gets to decide its fate? Is it really all about maximizing shareholder value?'
http://everything2.com/index.pl?node_id=1768159
That is one of the main points of the movie The Corporation.
There is a freely downloadable version available at YouTube and such.
I highly recommend it.
Yep - that's a good primer for studying corporate personhood.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
The whole financial market has grown increasingly complex, and it is this complexity that is part of what holds back the full story from filtering through the system.
This article talks about the role of credit rating agencies in the current mess. Loans gets sliced up and resold. The purchasers of these new assets rely on credit rating agencies in determining whether these bond are safe or not.
As long the credit rating agencies say all is well, and the real defaults don't start showing through, buyers of the repackaged loans can keep their heads in the sands. Once the defaults start showing through, the error of the credit rating agencies will become apparent. I don't know haw quickly this will work through the system. Once it does, it seems like it could result in "the great unwinding", especially if interest rates are also rising, exacerbating problems.
I agree that the details of financial institutions and instruments is becoming more complicated. But the essential elements of finance are unchanging. BTW, finance is not especially hard to understand, and I'm speaking as one with an MBA in finance (U.C., Berkeley, 1965) and some dozens of credits beyond the MBA.
Being an actuary is tough. Being a financial guru is relatively easy. I'm even willing to make fearless forecasts, such as: Interest rates will go down.
(But my crystal ball hazes over when it comes to a question of when rates will go down or how much or what the shape of the yield curve will be a year from now.)
Another fearless forecast: Inflation is the big problem. Deflation we do not have to worry about. We are not going to have a rerun of the Great Depression, in large part because of the invention of macroeconomics that was stimulated both by the Depression and also by the mobilization needs of the Second World War.
Don
Re: your fearless forecast
What if unemployment reaches 20% and energy and food prices skyrocket? What effect will macroeconomics have then?
....just wondering.
The current unemployment figure is those eligible and recieving unemployment benefits. Has nothing to do with the actual number of people without gainful employment. That figure is far larger.
Cid,
You are mistaken about how the official unemployment statistics are gathered and corrected. It has nothing to do with those receiving unemployment benefits; rather it is based on a stratified random sample of U.S. households.
The official statistics are of great value in showing changes in direction and magnitude of unemployment.
Few people outside of economics or statistics understand how the numbers are computed, so don't feel too bad.
If prices are skyrocketing, we do not have a rerun of the Great Depression, where food prices fell year after year after year after grim grim grim year for the farmers.
With inflation the Fed and the Treasury (working in cooperation) can inflate away all the excessive debt that is out there. Why would they not do this.
IMO, the chances of a debt induced deflation are about nil.
Back in the Great Depression, a much larger % of our economy was ag based. So an increase in food prices in the future would hurt many more people than it would help, now.
I wasn't referring to a debt induced deflation, I was implying a PO induced recession.
High food and energy prices will cause increasing numbers of unemployment and a gradual loss of our consumer driven economy. Ben has an impossible balancing act right now, between keeping our economy going and keeping the Asians buying our bonds in a world of decreasing energy supplies. We're in uncharted territory now with the complexity of our global financial system, central banks, derivatives, and energy supply.