DrumBeat: July 3, 2007
Posted by Leanan on July 3, 2007 - 9:06am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Near the rails but still on the road - Research casts doubt on the region's strategy of pushing transit-oriented residential projects to get people out of cars.
In Los Angeles alone, billions of public and private dollars have been lavished on transit-oriented projects such as Hollywood & Vine, with more than 20,000 residential units approved within a quarter mile of transit stations between 2001 and 2005.But there is little research to back up the rosy predictions. Among the few academic studies of the subject, one that looked at buildings in the Los Angeles area showed that transit-based development successfully weaned relatively few residents from their cars. It also found that, over time, no more people in the buildings studied were taking transit 10 years after a project opened than when it was first built.
BP’s Recent Production Data, and a Different View of Future World Oil Production Trends
The chart using the BP world oil production data in the June 18 Peak Oil Review, effectively separates the peaked producers from those who are increasing, and those who may still increase or at least hold steady for awhile. To follow up, I’ll add a few thoughts on likely future production trends. This might stimulate discussion among the Peak Oil troops.
ConocoPhillips expects second-quarter oil and gas production fell from first-quarter levels due to scheduled maintenance in the North Sea, exiting from operations in Dubai, asset sales and seasonal dips in Alaska, the company said on Tuesday.
Experts see repercussions from oil giants' Venezuela pullout
Many independent experts caution that the pullout of the two U.S. oil giants could further harm the investment climate in Venezuela. They also question whether its state-run energy company, Petróleos de Venezuela, also known as PDVSA, and its new suitors have the expertise, money and technology to exploit the tarlike heavy oil in the Orinoco basin, which may hold upward of 300 billion barrels of petroleum."They've got a problem, because new money isn't coming in," said David Mares, an expert on Latin American energy issues at the University of California at San Diego. "PDVSA is confident, but I would say it's based on blind hope."
Lithuania Seeks Freedom From Russia's 'Friendship'
Among the pine forests of north- eastern Lithuania, a dried-up oil pipeline called Druzhba -- Russian for friendship -- has become a symbol for the increasingly hollow relations between the Baltic states and Russia.
How can it be that an oil-producing country must ration petrol?
Mistaken political decisions and irrational economic demands of those who could build refineries have led Teheran to institute electronic cards to limit the use of fuel. The crisis is sparking the biggest domestic protests that Ahmadinejad has faced since being elected.
First cellulosic ethanol plant to open
Range Fuels on Monday is expected to announce that it has received a permit to build an ethanol production plant in rural Georgia that uses wood chips as its feedstock. It plans to break ground on the plant this summer.
Human greed takes lion's share of solar energy
HUMANS are just one of the millions of species on Earth, but we use up almost a quarter of the sun's energy captured by plants - the most of any species.The human dominance of this natural resource is affecting other species, reducing the amount of energy available to them by almost 10 per cent, scientists report.
This year the Indonesian Government will officially hold a new Guinness World Record - the fastest pace of deforestation. They must be so proud. Between 2000 and 2005 Indonesia lost two percent of its forest each year, representing an area of wildlife rich tropical forest the size of Wales. That’s three hundred football pitches of forest per hour.
Kenya: Crisis Looms as Rivers Around Mt Kenya Dry Up
Joseph Manyara crouches over loose rocks and digs his hands into a muddy sludge seeping with water. Soon, his hands are filled with water, which he empties into a bucket.He repeats the procedure several times, surrounded by scores of impatient children also waiting to fill their buckets from Ngarenaro River on the base of Mount Kenya.
"There is little water left," says Manyara with a note of despair. The river, which was once roaring with water from the mountain, is now only a silent sludge limping downhill.
Buying Into the Green Movement
It’s not enough to build a vacation home of recycled lumber; the real way to reduce one’s carbon footprint is to only own one home.
Visiting a gas station these days is like going in for a root canal. First comes procrastination, followed by dread, and then “open wide.” There’s no laughter at the pumps anymore. The Toot ‘n’ Moo is as somber as a morgue, full of glum motorists mourning the demise of cheap gasoline. Spending $75 used to be a penance reserved for truckers, but now everyone can tithe. Take your pick: Shell, Exxon, Chevron, they are all eager to drill your wallet.
IBM Establishes Global Center of Excellence for Nuclear Power
IBM today announced that it is establishing a Global Center of Excellence for Nuclear Power in La Gaude, France, to support safe, reliable and efficient electricity generation by energy companies worldwide.
A decade on from Asia's financial crisis, the oil market has witnessed an unprecedented bull run. The surge in prices has seemed unsustainable with some commentators likening the jump to the dot com tech bubble. However, this particular bubble in the commodities market shows no signs of bursting as long as the twin powerhouses in the region -- China and India -- continue to grow.
Oil Companies to Invest $133 Billion in Brazil
Oil companies in Brazil will invest up to $133 billion between 2007 and 2016 in the exploration and production of crude and natural gas, according to official estimates released by the Energy and Mines Ministry.
The Managing Director of the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation, Mr M.O. Boateng, has said Ghana is endowed with huge oil potential.Speaking to the Crusading Guide, Mr Boateng said the recent oil find offshore the Cape Three Points in the Western region, though yet to be appraised, is a tip of the iceberg, considering Ghana’s share of the world’s hydrocarbons.
Ontario to require speed limiters for big trucks
Transportation Minister Donna Cansfield says big rigs will soon be travelling more slowly along Ontario highways.The Ontario government is making it mandatory for all large commercial vehicles to use speed limiters, Cansfield said in an interview with The Canadian Press.
...The Ontario Trucking Association says all trucks built in the last decade are already equipped with speed limiting technology and they estimate that speed limiters will save a typical tractor trailer 10,500 litres of diesel fuel every year.
A WELSH economist has given an apocalyptic warning that Wales and the rich West face a potentially catastrophic famine, as energy reserves run out.Dr Patricia Dodd Racher, who lives in Porthyrhyd, Carmarthenshire, says that a “lethal cocktail” of climactic change, multinational corporate power and fuel shortages herald the end of the “cheap food era” over the coming decades.
The energy market situation doesn't look good for the United States
Washington's concerns are largely dictated by self-interest ... there is enough oil to go around. Only countries that produce it should control it in the first place.
Kuwait Government to Appoint Oil Minister Soon
State Minister for Cabinet Affairs Faisal Al-Hajji said yesterday that the government will "soon" appoint two ministers to replace the outgoing oil and communications minister. It was also revealed during the weekly Cabinet meeting that former oil minister Sheikh Ali Al-Jarrah Al-Sabah submitted his resignation on May 22, several days after his controversial press statements to Al-Qabas daily that eventually led to his grilling and a no-confidence motion.
Is Texas Now Greener than California?
Last year, California suffered the ultimate indignity in its quest to be the "greenest state." It was passed by red Texas -- the oil heartland -- for the title of state with the most wind-power generating capacity.
Exxon Mobil: A proud oil giant comes to the climate change policy table
The world’s largest company by revenue is determined to make its mark on global climate change policy. But is it too little too late? Some critics think so.
Clear Up the Congestion-Pricing Gridlock
THE New York State Assembly ended its session on June 22 without reaching a consensus on Manhattan’s congestion pricing proposal — a delay that may cost New York City some $500 million in federal transportation money. Assembly members have voiced concerns about the economic impact of the program, the effect on traffic outside Manhattan and even the effectiveness of the idea itself.
Men purchase Fiat that got 244 miles per gallon
At first glance, Lee McKee thought the 1959 Fiat rusting in the sun outside Talladega's International Motorsports Hall of Fame and Museum might have a few parts worth salvaging.Inside the trunk, however, was documentation indicating the car had been souped up by Shell scientists in 1969 to get 244 miles per gallon of gas as part of an annual company contest.
IEA seeks rise in US oil refining
The International Energy Agency (IEA) voiced concern over global oil supplies with director Claude Mandil calling for a rapid increase in US refining capacity in the coming weeks.
OPEC keeps lid on oil output in June
OPEC, excluding Iraq and Angola, pumped slightly more crude oil in June as Nigerian supply crept higher after a spate of outages and Iran pumped more, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday....While showing rising supply in some OPEC countries, the survey indicates top world exporter Saudi Arabia is keeping a cap on output in spite of a jump in oil prices to a 10-month high of more than $72 a barrel.
Strike Could Halt Petrobras Output for 5 Days
Eighty percent of unionized workers at Brazil's federal energy company Petrobras have approved a five-day strike for July, Jose Maria Rangel, director of the oil workers federation (FUP), told BNamericas.
Venezuela Oil: Who Will Fill The Void?
Investors worry Venezuela’s future oil output may be on shaky ground following the transfer of control of four heavy oil projects to the government and the decision by the US’ Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips to pull out of the projects. What is the future of the projects and the outlook for Venezuelan oil output? Will PDVSA, the remaining foreign companies, and other companies, such as China’s Sinopec, be able to fill the void?
Pakistan: Small electricity bills should be rewarded
There should be an incentives programme for people with smaller electricity bills, opined the governor during a meeting Monday at Governor House where he gave recommendations and suggestions for the improvement of KESC and the electricity situation.
Fiji: Pushing Renewables That Works for Islands
Why is SOPAC talking about an energy crisis when the Pacific has not seen any power utilities, airlines, or even a state going belly up because of high fuel cost?
India: LPG cylinder shortage hits customers
Angry customers of Hindustan Petroleum (HP) called Deccan Herald on Monday and complained that they have not received gas cylinders for the last 10 days as there is no supply of cylinders in the City.
Uganda: New fuel tax will double food prices
“In the next few months, we could experience a rise in inflation due to the introduction of fuel tax which will increase the cost of production that will affect the consumers hence a double rise in commodity prices,” Vincent Musoke, the UBOS principal statistician, said.
New England oil-heat customers try to hedge heating-season bets
Bill and Jane Purdy are doing it again - locking in a set price for next winter's heating season for fuel oil to heat their big, old, drafty brick house in the Connecticut River valley village of Bellows Falls....And they're doing it despite a lament heard last year from many oil-heat customers who either bought their season's worth of heating oil in advance or signed fixed-price contracts with their dealers and ended up paying above the spot market when oil dropped 25 percent late in the year.
North Sea output continues to drop despite record investment
The decline in oil and gas production in the UK North Sea continued in April, despite record investment in 2006, in what economists at Royal Bank of Scotland said was another sign that the province is maturing rapidly.The latest oil and gas index from Royal Bank shows that combined average daily oil and gas production for the UK Continental Shelf stood at 2,823,141 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in April. This was about 2.3% lower than in March, ending a run of six consecutive monthly increases. The underlying rate of production continued on a firmly downward trend, falling 7.8% compared with April last year.
The decline occurred ahead of the summer maintenance season, when production usually falls as operators have work done on rigs. advertisement
Against the backdrop of a continuing surge in investment in response to buoyant energy markets, the figures show that operators are having to work increasingly hard to try to maintain production.
Calderon 'Alarmed' by Fall in Mexico's Oil Exports
President Felipe Calderon said here Friday that he is "alarmed" by the fall in the volume of Mexican oil exports, and for that reason finds it necessary to reduce the government's financial dependence on oil revenues.Addressing finance-industry executives at a function to celebrate the 75th anniversary of BBVA Bancomer, the president announced that between January and May 2007, crude exports dropped 11.5 percent compared with last year.
"This year and the next will be no exception," Calderon said.
Argentina Sanctions Shell Oil Again
The Argentine government announced a multi-million dollar penalty on transnational Shell Oil on Monday for shortage of fuel supplies, and may bring company executives to court.
North Dakota: Mandan refinery running at capacity
A spokesman for the oil refinery in Mandan says it's selling as much fuel as it can, to help ease shortages at pipeline terminals in the region.Leif Peterson says the Tesoro refinery in Mandan is taking care of its own customers first and then allocating fuel to others.
US missile plan ups tension between Poland, ex-master Russia
The energy crisis of January 2006, when Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine in a pricing dispute, causing a sudden shortfall across much of Western Europe, has caused Brussels to take Poland's ideas on energy security seriously.And in yet another flash-point in the consistently tense Warsaw-Moscow relationship, Poland has led its former-Soviet EU allies, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, in opposition to plans for a gas pipeline from Russia to Germany across the Baltic Sea floor.
Caveat Emptor: The Energy Balance of Snake Oil
Unsophisticated investment is a lighting rod for the scam artists. Because there is both an urgent need to deal with the the problems posed by global warming, energy security, and resource depletion, and the new money is rapidly accelerating the advance of technology in renewable energy, new innovations are very plausible.
Have pump prices peaked for summer? - As gasoline prices ease, refiners are set to boost output
If all goes well, pump prices may have peaked for the summer. But with gasoline supplies tighter this month than they’ve been in years, traders and analysts say it won’t take much to send pump prices higher again.
House pushes sanctions as Iran's fuel riots spread
Congress is pushing legislation that would pressure U.S. allies to sever gasoline exports to Iran as fuel riots spread in the Islamic republic.House members have introduced a bill that would impose sanctions on companies that sell gasoline or other fuel to the Teheran regime. Under the bill, the proposed sanctions, meant to ban violators from doing business in the United States, would take effect in 2008.
Venezuela to sell gasoline to Iran
Venezuela has agreed to sell gasoline to Iran, the South American county's energy minister said in comments published Tuesday, a week after the Islamic country imposed a fuel rationing program that has sparked violence.
Nigeria militants 'to end truce'
The main militants group in Nigeria's oil producing Niger Delta say it will not extend its month-long ceasefire which expires on Tuesday.
Nepal Hit By Deadliest Fuel Crisis
After days of acute fuel shortage, the Kathmandu valley was Tuesday hit with its worst crisis in history as the state-owned petroleum importer and distributor reached the lowest level of fuel stocks and stopped supplies to gas stations. 'Kathmandu valley now has just 300 kilolitres of petroleum,' said Bishwanath Goyal, managing director of Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC). 'This is the minimum mandatory stock we have to keep. We can't sell any of it.'
EU urged to scrap farming set-aside
Farmers have asked Brussels to scrap set-aside across Europe for the first time since the surplus-reduction measure was introduced in 1992, in order to avoid shortages of wheat and other cereals next year.Strong demand from Asia, drought in Australia and growing demand for biofuels have slashed Europe's reserves this year to almost nothing and demand is still rising.
Iraq Cabinet approves draft of oil law
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Cabinet has approved a draft of a key oil law, and the Iraqi parliament was expected to begin debate on the measure Wednesday, an official said.
Calif. air board leader quits in dispute
The executive director of a state agency charged with implementing a landmark global warming law resigned Monday, saying the governor's office made it impossible for her to do her job.Catherine Witherspoon's resignation comes days after the California Air Resources Board's chairman, Robert Sawyer, was ousted by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
"I think they're trying to control it, and they don't have a very cogent vision for what's needed," said Witherspoon, who has managed the agency since 2003.
Live Earth aims to cause lasting change
Live Earth is ambitious by any standard: eight concerts featuring the biggest names in music, playing for a 24-hour period across the globe, all for the cause of global warming.But like its template — 2006's Live 8, the global concert devoted to poverty in Africa — the mission of Live Earth is somewhat amorphous. Its aim is to "trigger a global movement to solve the climate crisis."
Ancient Arctic ponds drying up as climate warms
Ancient ponds in the Arctic are drying up during the polar summer as warmer temperatures evaporate shallow bodies of water, Canadian researchers said on Monday.They said the evaporation of these ponds -- some of which have been around for thousands of years -- illustrates the rapid effects of global warming, threatening bird habitats and breeding grounds and reducing drinking water for animals.
Global warming could increase U.S. death rate
An increase in summertime heat waves from global warming could mean more deaths among Americans each year, a study by Harvard researchers suggests.It's well known that extreme temperatures, whether in the form of heat waves or cold snaps, can be deadly. However, the new findings suggest that any increase in heat-related deaths from global warming would not be offset by a drop in cold-related deaths.
Study says erosion slicing Arctic Alaska habitat
A swath of marshy, wildlife-rich coastal land in Arctic Alaska being eyed for oil drilling is eroding rapidly probably because of the disappearance of sea ice that used to protect it from the ocean waves, according to a study released on Monday.
Does anyone have a PIW subscription? This article looks interesting:
Aramco's Manifa ITBs Delayed
I can kind of guess what it says, but I'm wondering if they gave any reason for the delay.
I would not read too much into this.
Quite possibly some engineering detail being worked out. It is unlikely that Saudi Aramco is short of funds (or the ability to borrow).
Mattthew Simmons agrees that there is oil in Manifa, it is not a problematic reservoir. Rather the oil itself is problematic (too much vanadium).
We are several years (2011 ?) from production, so a couple of months delay on the front end is, IMHO, no big deal.
Best hopes for a gentle downslope post-Peak Oil,
Alan
I'm not "reading too much into it." I'm curious about what the delay is, and how long it is, that's all. I'm not worried that Manifa is in terminal decline, I assure you.
What I do suspect is "Thunder Horse syndrome." It always takes longer than they think it will take. Which is why I mistrust the "bottom-up" estimates.
Manifa was scheduled to come on line in 2011 with 900,000 barrels per day. Its oil is heavy with vanadium and hydrogen sulphide, making it virtually unusable. Saudi is building two new refineries. No doubt one of them will be equipped to handle this heavy oil contiminated with vanadium and hydrogen sulphide.
So it would be my guess that there has been some delay in the refinery schedule and Saudi will not be able to handle the oil from Manifa by 2011.
But that is just a guess of course. I am sure there will be more news on this coming down the pike very soon giving us more details. Then again, perhaps they will keep the lid on this, knowing Saudis predilection for secrecy.
Ron Patterson
Ron,
I guess you saw the article about the Saudis looking into importing coal to meet domestic energy consumption. I think that they had to import fuel oil last August, in order to meed peak demand for electrical generation.
Is that going to Newcastle, S.A. ?
The first two stages are for dredging and then building a causeway out for the drilling platforms, so this is likely more related to those issues than dealing with the oil.
The vanadium could be very useful if extracted for vanadium redox batteries
You may well be right. I had dinner with the head of Saudi refining projects last week, and in a chat about China's refinery expansion plans, he blurted out that China's plans were highly improbable, "since we can't even get 400,000 b/d up and running in less than 4-5 years anymore". He wouldn't elaborate, but they have been impacted by the same escalation of costs, shortages, and other problems that are plaguing the industry around the world.
Comments from the horse's mouth, so to speak, are always interesting. Thanks.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
If the recent press releases we have seen from Saudi Arabia and OPEC are any indication they have decided that there will not be sufficient demand for oil in the future to justify the investment. :P
Another place for the people looking at 'things to do'
http://practicalaction.org/practicalanswers/index.php?cPath=21
The interface of selecting and downloading is interesting...
They used to be known as the ITDG (Intermediate Technology Development Group) and were set up by Fritz Schumacher (Small is Beautiful).
He was called "Fritz" because, as is well known in the UK, All German males are called "Fritz".
Speaking of problems with oil exports from top exporters:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2007/07/03/044.html
Tuesday, July 3, 2007. Issue 3690. Page 5.
(Russian) Oil Exports Fall, Duties Advance
Bloomberg
"as higher export duties encouraged oil companies to refine more crude domestically"
I'm reminded of the distinction between "proximate" and "ultimate" causes:
Every "event" that seems to herald the arrival of "peak" comes with its own "proximate" cause attached.
One wonders: can we ever hope to sort out proximate from ultimate causes? Will we ever be able to tell the difference, before it's too late?
Finally: isn't this the essence of tragedy?
At least some of the top producers and exporters are going to be talking about higher production for years to come. For example, I have frequently quoted the Texas State Geologist who talked, in 2005, about the possibility of increasing Texas production back to its peak level, through--drumroll please--the use of better technology.
I would simply suggest that everyone peruse the headlines today, and yesterday, including the one about Saudi Arabia looking into plans to start importing coal to meet rapidly increasing domestic energy demand.
So far, has the available data fit the what the combination of the HL method and the Export Land Model predicted?
You can listen to the guys who apparently believe that we can have an exponential rate of increase--virtually forever--in the consumption of a finite energy resource base, or you can listen to me and ELP like your life depends on it, because it very well might.
If I am wrong, what's the downside? You are living way below your means and saving money?
Let me tell you that as far as possible for me and my family, ELP is working for us.
E.
We have only a mortgage on the small house (2 stories, 54 square meters),no other debts. Interest rates never to exceed the limits of a set bandwidth. Instead of living from paycheck to paycheck, we now have some money in the bank; not a lot, but more then before. But we do not manange to live on 50% of our income, now. Intend to invest in solar water heating, PV and wind.
L.
Both me and my wife live close to our jobs. I use my moped throughout the year(5 minutes commute); my wife goes by bike when the weather allows it(10 minutes commute). She takes the 10 year old 1.6 l. Nissan, that will not be replaced, otherwise. My job may last for quite some time post peak, my wife's job probably not. All bets are off anyway once TSHTF, PO-wise or 2nd-great-depression-wise.
P.
On tonights menu are new potatoes, courgette filled with tomato and onion(from the veggie garden my wife tends), and seabass or mackerell I caught over the weekend (can't make up my mind which it gonna be yet). Not a sufficient quantity to sustain us through the year, but still. We had so much strawberries we had no other choice then to conserve it as jelly. Terrible, ain't it?
Last winter I got the woodstove (5 kW only for our small house) installed; sawing and splitting wood by hand only. Wood collected at the shore, from clearings, and the local carpenters leftovers.
It's not enough, but a pretty good start. Doomerish as I am, me, my wife and the kids are happy and healthy and enjoy every little thing. We are very rich indeed.
Ah, so you still haven't absorbed the lesson the 1970s taught so well to so many people, have you? ;)
The lesson is blindingly simple - modest quantities of "saved" money are inflated and taxed away - "saving" means almost the same thing as "flushing down the toilet" And the talk of Helicopter Ben, which carries a measure of truth, only reinforces the lesson; the USA has been inflating away a lot of foolish promises for a very long time.
Best to put any spare money into something tangible, and the sole reasonable tangible investment vehicle for most average folks is the house. A house at least provides lucrative tax deductions, and it is the investment safest from Congresscritters demagoguing about "unearned" or "excess" profits. The long drive to the large mortgage follows logically and inexorably.
Alternatively or in addition, there are costly trips to Europe or wherever. Drink now, for tomorrow we die. The ongoing expansion of air and road travel follows logically and inexorably.
Until you get a grip on these realities, I don't think you can take ELP very far except among geeks. And I for one can't help, 'cos I haven't got a clue how to get a grip on them.
Post-peak, wealth will be measured by one of two things, which are tied in a way... Food and land. Land you can grow food on, more specifically.
If I can grow timber, veggies, and meat, there's not too much else that I will need, as they will be renewable and I can sell extra for other things that I might need. Learning blacksmithing might be a good thing too. Recycle all of those cars into farming impliments.
Tell them ELP because living 50% below your income gives you 50% of your income that you can invest. ;) Then the trick is getting the into investments that will survive the transition but that's another topic.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
i would watch out for hyperinflation,
a good way of eroding savings to nothing in a few short years.
10% is seven years for a halving. (and if you currently get 0% on your money you effectively are losing 10% a year)
gold could be nice, but bikes and bike parts are a surer way to profit (the only valuation which exceeds the hyperinflation!)
Tools! I bought a set of Sears Craftsman metric combination wrenches on Sunday.
One idea: cultivate some handicraft, from sewing to carving wood to hand-sharpening blades. Do it now as a kind of art or hobby, since the industrial replacement is inevitable cheaper today. But it helps one understand which tools are needed, which work best, etc., plus of course developing skills and even building links into the community of craftspeople. Then, as energy prices go up, handicraft will be more and more practical for daily living uses.
Gardening is always good, of course, but there are other things that those landless amoung us can do.
There is no beer in Heaven,
that's why we drink it here.
You can listen to the guys who apparently believe that we can have an exponential rate of increase--virtually forever--in the consumption of a finite energy resource base, or you can listen to me and ELP like your life depends on it, because it very well might.
Oh, let me tell you...
Three gardens this year. Actually selling produce at a convenience store. Will be able to stock larder with a year's worth of canned/preserved food.
Well, I'm an old 60s radical, and always thought the system was about to crash (and it will, it will!), so I was always into ELP (but no P - I live in Jersey City). During the gogo years I didn't went. My daughter lives on a commune and takes 'economize' to levels you wouldn't believe. Even as a teenager should would buy second hand clothing, cheap, cheap, cheap. She has credit card we pay for and over the holidays we tell her to go crazy, and she manages to run up $40-50. My kid brother has a green house and an semi-organic farm. His employees run it for him mostly, don't let him touch the money.
I say all this, and it's a good way to live in normal times because you avoid all the stress of wanting and accumulating and going into debt. But I have no illusions about it saving us from the chaos that will come with societal collapse. Societal decay and disintegration will not leave anyone alone. The powers-that-be will incite us to kill each other if they don't come after us themselves.
ELP and survivalism are not enough. There has to be a political response -- we must relearn how to act collectively and politically. Americans have become the ultimate individualists. We are thus completely powerless against our own gov't and leaders.
"But I have no illusions about it saving us from the chaos that will come with societal collapse."
Well said!
I have been living in a very frugal manner for many years, trying to grow as much of my own food as I can, cutting my own firewood, etc.
I do it because it feels right to me - it's one way of being your own boss. Plus, I like it :-)
But I don't have any illusion that WTSHTF I'll just choogle along unscathed.
My _real_ PO prep has been getting to know the lay of the land and all the people around here, and making sure they know me.
Americans _used to_ know how to act collectively and in a community fashion. The myth of the Rugged Individualist has always been just that - a myth. We need to make "community" the new all-American ideal (myth, if you will).
I think Ghandi said,"You can beat me, you can jail me, you can kill me, but you can't force me to cooperate with you." It is courage like that which the government is powerless against. If enough people refuse to cooperate with the government than government changes its policy to something you will cooperate with.
Tell that to the Carthaginians. Oh you can't because there aren't any left, are there? The Romans slaughtered them to the last man, woman, and child and then salted over the earth where they lived.
Ghandi could do what he did because he firmly believed that at its core, Britain's morality would overrule its imperialistic tendencies. He was correct. The Carthaginians could not do what Ghandi did because the Romans would have still done exactly what they did do - slaughter them all.
Just because no current nation state is willing to engage in genocide to achieve its ends is not a valid reason to presume that such behavior cannot recur in the future. Anyone basing his assessment of future events on such an assumption deserves exactly the future that he or she gets.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Though I was quite young at the time, if memory serves, the Romans enslaved the Carthaginian women and children and some of the men. Slaughter is unprofitable when war captives can be sold into slavery.
I do expect to see the expansion of slavery from its current rudimentary basis in countries such as those of N. Africa (and Saudi, of course) to more countries as TSHTF.
The institution of slavery has never been abolished, it has only been (to some extent) suppressed. Slave markets flourish as I write. With sufficient funds, you can get just about any kind of physical specimen you want, though Arabs do seem to prefer Black slaves, as they have for centuries. But white slavery is alive and well too, with countries of Eastern Europe providing premium-priced blond women.
Those with oil will buy slaves, those impoverished by its absence will sell their children into slavery, as happens every day in, for example, India, as well as many other Asian countries.
The U.S. is by no means a perfect society, but at least we do not have the slave markets that function openly in some countries. In all probability, the slave trade is increasing, though it is impossible to get accurate statistics. When you are in debt and cannot feed your children, you sell them into slavery in hopes that they will have a better life.
I heard on KPFT this morning about the Government of Brazil freeing 1,000 slaves in the province of Amazonia. Sugar has been traditionally farmed with slaves. Here in Texas the last planters used convicts from the Harlem Unit of the Texas Department of Corrections-black convicts during segregated prison farm era. US Sugar was notorius for years for importing Dominicans, then withjholding their money and making them live on the plantation and buy from company stores in their Florida Operations, and only bought mechanical harvesters in the 1970's. Small price for sugarcane ethanol.
Illegal emmigrants are often treated as slaves in the Houston area, and I think throughout the US. Women will hir a latina maid/nanny, make them sleep at the house and be on duty 24/7 for less than minimum wage. Then there's the sexworker problem-Korean GI wives brought to the US to work in Oriental spas and massage parlors, and cantina whores sold by the coyotes to enterprising bars. And our own native girls working for crack for a pimp-slaves to dope if nothing else.
Aristotle said that the natural state of most of humanity is slavery, and looking at my mastercharge bill and mortgage, he might be right.
Bob Ebersole
Aristotle said:
"Most men are, by nature, slaves."
What he meant by this statement is that most men are not capable of self-government in a polity. Polity was as good as it gets for Aristotle--part democracy, part aristocracy, part plutocracy, part monarchy--a mixed system. He did not believe in the universal franchise however, because in Aristotle's opinion (with plenty of evidence from the mob that convicted Socrates) democracy (as in Athens) inevitably degenerated into mob rule. According to Aristotle, only men who bore arms (plus veterans) qualified for the vote.
IMO political science is a discipline that has not advanced since Aristotle, and indeed, in some respects it has regressed.
Aristotle was troubled by the phenomenon of people being born into slavery, and he was against that. After all, according to Aristotle, just because you are born a slave, that says nothing about your virtue. Similarly, Aristotle was highly skeptical of monarchs and aristocrats, because he had observed that over and over and over again the sons of prominent men are fools--or worse. Thus he rejected the hereditary priciple at the same time that he rejected pure democracy. What Aristotle deemed to be the good society was based on empirical research from the dozens of Greek city states: He was looking for laws that actually worked to promote human welfare. And of course, Aristotle was heavily influenced by his teacher and mentor, Plato--especially the latter's last work, "The Laws."
Don Sailorman,
You're reminding me of my freshman philosophy. Here in the USA, our republic has degenerated into a plutocracy, IMHO.
It's amazing how we've given up universal franchise here in