DrumBeat: July 2, 2007

US consumers pay highest energy bills in decades

The summer heat is sweltering, so you turn up the air conditioning. The kids need a trip to the beach, but first you need to fill up the family car. And your freelance business requires that you spend a few hours on the computer tonight.

Kilowatts, gallons — they all add up. Energy is now sucking money out of Americans' bank accounts at a record level — hitting $612 billion at an annual rate in the month of April, the last month of data. Over the past two years, energy bills as a share of income have risen and are now at their highest point since 1987, but still below the levels of the 1970s and early 1980s. For low-income households, some economists estimate energy consumption as a percentage of income is closing in on 10 percent.

Japan: Oil imports decline for 13th month

Crude oil imports fell 11 percent in May from a year earlier, declining for a 13th month.

Crude oil imports fell to 17.5 million kiloliters last month, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a report Friday.


China to consume 350m tons of oil in 2007

China's total consumption of oil is expected to reach 350 million tons this year. Due to the soaring oil price on the international markets, the cost of the high consumption of oil is growing, said an official with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) last Saturday.


Kurdish Oil Riches Lure Wildcatters Unswayed by Deaths in Iraq

Yousef, who once fought off Saddam's Republican Guard in the mountains nearby, has given up his Kalashnikov AK-47 to work on an oil platform built by Norwegian wildcatter Det Norske Oljeselskap ASA, or DNO. Oil producers such as Canada's Western Oil Sands Inc. and Heritage Oil Corp.; Switzerland-based Addax Petroleum Corp.; Genel Enerji, a unit of Turkey's Cukurova Holding AS; and the U.K.'s Sterling Energy Plc are all exploring the region, which the Kurds have controlled since 1991.


Shell chief calls for powerful EU energy supremo

Europe needs an energy minister to co-ordinate a common policy on the supply of gas from Russia, according to Jeroen Van der Veer, the chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell.


Chavez Prefers Russian Oil and Lenin

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez took several parting shots at the United States as he wrapped up a visit to Moscow on Friday, suggesting that he preferred Russian oil companies to U.S. ones and that life was more than Superman.


Escaping Putin's Energy Squeeze

Increased dependence on Russian-dominated energy routes and supplies poses the risk that Russia will be able to exert significant political pressure on Europe. Indeed, it has already demonstrated its capacity to do so. In the past 18 months Russia has twice shut off gas to Europe, first during a politically driven dispute with Ukraine and then in an energy dispute with Belarus early this year.


Uganda is not ready to handle oil

By leveraging the oil revenues, we could see dramatic improvements in our roads, railways, electricity and telecommunications, easing the flow of goods and services and lowering the costs of doing business. Improvements in our education and health systems would also see dramatic improvements in our standard of living. This is the best case scenario.

In the worst case scenario, we can look forward to a collapse of all other productive sectors of the economy as a stronger shilling makes production unprofitable, making it cheaper to import rather than produce locally. We may see widening income gaps with a small percentage of the population growing exponentially richer, while the majority descends into dehumaninsing poverty.


North American Petroleum Refining Industry Turnaround Activity and Future Spending

Capital and maintenance spending for the North American Petroleum Refining Industry is reaching record levels. In a special segment of "Industry Today," Chris Paschall, VP of Refining for Industrial Info, will give an inside look at some of the drivers behind capital and maintenance spending trends in the industry. "Industry Today" is a weekly internet radio broadcast hosted by Industrial Info featuring technology, industry trends and company executives important to the industrial market.


EU consumers could save £40bn a year as energy markets open up

Industry and households throughout Europe could save £40bn a year after the EU's domestic energy supply market was yesterday opened for full-scale competition. The move promises to help put an end to distortions that cost UK consumers £10bn last year.


Unrealized benefits of transport electrification are within reach

New materials innovations that are now out of the laboratory and going into production that, when widely adopted in the US, can cap greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. High power, long life batteries that recharge in 10 minutes are now being manufactured in the US that can power both fully electric plug-in vehicles and plug-in hybrids.


McDonald's puts oil to green use

McDonald's is to convert all its UK delivery vehicles to run on biodiesel, using the firm's supply of cooking oil.


Australia: Walk-out sparks debate on electricity market

ACADEMIC Tim Brennan, in his 2001 paper analysing "rolling blackouts, bankrupted utilities, state bail-outs and allegations of anti-competitive conduct" in the wake of the Californian energy crisis, made this observation: "Deregulating an industry, like flying an airplane, makes headlines only when there has been a crash."

Deregulation and the questions surrounding the structure of the energy market have occupied an unfamiliar space in the headlines over the past week.

The crash? Energy One chief executive Vaughan Busby prefers to call it a near miss. Last Friday, the junior energy retailer, which has 10,000 customers, largely in NSW and Queensland, became the first casualty of high wholesale energy prices due to the drought.

The company announced it was walking away from its retailing business, declaring it "unprofitable", saying it could make more money selling hedging contracts and developing its billing software than it could through its retail operations.


The Gas-Guzzler Lobby Stops Time

By 2020, when the 35 miles per gallon standard kicks in, 35 miles per gallon will sound like ancient history. By then we'll be well past Peak Oil, meaning that we'll have used up most of the world's oil reserves, while an industrialized China and industrializing India will have increased their oil consumption exponentially. That scenario alone should push gas prices above seven bucks a gallon in today's dollars.


Nuclear energy hot topic once again

Thanks to global warming, nuclear energy is hot again. Its promise of abundant, carbon emissions-free power is being pushed by the president and newly considered by environmentalists. But any expansion won't come cheap or easy.


Crude Oil and Gasoline: The Illusion of Equality

The time has come to once and for all put to rest the notion that crude oil and gasoline are joined at the hip as commodities in solidarity.

Yes, there's a thin veil of truth to the myth, born of the fact that the latter is refined from the former. But for all practical purposes, it's prudent to consider each separately from the other. The reason: each is driven by a separate, and at times dissimilar, set of supply and demand factors.


Power cuts test Pakistani patience in election year

The last thing any government wants is hot, angry voters, but that is Pakistan's fate with elections just months away.

Near record summer temperatures can be blamed on global warming, but power outages aren't acts of God.


Iran, Venezuela boost ties with petrochemical plant

The presidents of Iran and Venezuela launched construction of a joint petrochemical plant on Monday, underlining closer ties between the two energy-rich nations united in opposition to the United States.


Pakistan okays power import from Iran

Pakistan has formally approved a plan to import electricity from Iran to supply areas in southwestern Baluchistan province with power.


Sri Lanka electricity plant problems hits AES Corp profits

The utility has been forced to buy power from private power producers owing to a severe shortage of generating capacity.

It is also caught in a financial crunch with an average selling price of 10.40 rupees a unit against a generation cost of 12.60, even after a recent tariff hike.


Iran's roads to go eco-friendly

Iran is set to start producing hybrid cars from late July in a bid to cut down on fuel consumption in the country, according to a report by Iran's Mehr News Agency (MNA)


Pemex Awards First Service Contract for Crude-Oil Drilling

Pemex, as the company is known, awarded a 10-year contract to a group led by Mexico's Grupo Diavaz to run the oil field with a goal of more than doubling production to 15,000 barrels per day, said Carlos Morales, chief of Pemex's exploration and production unit. Pemex plans to offer four more oilfield-service contracts this year, he said.


Pemex looks for more efficiency

Petróleos Mexicanos, the third-biggest oil supplier to the U.S., must improve its operating capabilities and expand into new production areas, such as deepwater, to curb its dependence on the Cantarell oil field, said the company's head of production and exploration.

"Cantarell has made us highly dependent," said Pemex's Carlos Morales during a conference last week in the Gulf of Mexico port city of Veracruz. "The solutions we're going to face in the future are much smaller fields that require much more work and efficiency than we have today."


South Africa's arterial routes on the road to disaster

Faced by an arterial meltdown, transport lobbyists are calling for a return to rail transportation to alleviate the "unacceptable and growing levels" of congestion.

Alarming reports show that the country's main arterial routes are being "pounded to destruction" by heavy vehicles and that some roads may only last another five years.


Organic food under threat

'I'm not normally apocalyptic,' said Patrick Holden, owner of the farm and director of the Soil Association. 'But the organic food industry is facing big problems that need to be sorted out as a matter of urgency.'


Kurt Cobb: Deceptive landscape

But my pleasant walk through these leafy streetscapes is deceptive. For all its orderliness this neighborhood generates enormous entropy that is hidden from the viewer's eyes. This has implications for our political life because these are the kinds of neighborhoods across the United States from which communities draw their leaders and in which turnout is heaviest during election time.


Test your Energy IQ

Big Oil says Americans lack basic energy knowledge. How much do you know, and what’s behind their test?


North Dakota Governor extends hours for commercial truckers hauling fuel

Governor Hoeven has issued an executive order that extends the service hours for commercial truck drivers hauling fuel.

Officials say a low supply of gasoline caused by refinery slowdowns is threatening to create regional shortages especially in the eastern part of the state.


Growth is bumping against profound physical limits

It used to be that with one stone, you could hit two birds, named More and Better, roosting on the same branch. Not so now, because “Better has flown a few trees over to make her nest.” As a result, “if you’ve got the stone of your own life, or your own society, gripped in your hand,” you have to choose between the two, advises Bill McKibben in ‘Deep Economy’.

Growth is no longer making most people wealthier, but instead generating inequality and insecurity, he observes. “And growth is bumping against physical limits so profound – like climate change and peak oil – that continuing to expand the economy may be impossible; the very attempt may be dangerous.”

Trinidad and Tobago: Energy security

"You mention in one of your articles that Peak Oil could occur as early as 2015. It may have already happened. There is increasing evidence that supply is declining off the various Peaks, depending on what liquids one is looking at. A continued rapid decline in Saudi (it has declined 11 per cent from its highs already) production, whether for geological, economic or political reasons, will not be masked for much longer.
(The article also mentions TOD and Jeffrey's "Hubbert Linearisation Model.")


Our friends in the north

Scotland still has about a third of her oil left. If she gets together with her Norwegian neighbours in a sort of mini-OPEC, keeps the price of North Sea oil up in the era of Peak Oil (and this may rise in pretty short order to more than $200 a barrel; in 1999 it was only $10 a barrel), and uses the income as collateral to obtain hi-tech equipment and training, then her government can promote the necessary industrial and infrastructural reconstruction.


Growth and degrowth - revolutionary approaches to saving the planet and making a happier future

Economic growth is central to the ideology of modern capitalism. In capitalist economies, growth is usually related to a measurement known as Gross Domestic Product, GDP, defined as the value of all goods and services purchased in a country over a specified period. Growth is said to occur if this value increases, and most nation states are obsessed that this happens, year by year. But this says nothing about whether spending was necessary, or who did the spending. Consumption of any goods or services, whether needed or not, contributes to growth.


The University of Texas Presents Two-Day Symposium to Improve Approach to Energy Technology Innovation and Policies

"Energy is in the news every single day, but often with misleading or incomplete information. This short course is a great opportunity for participants to learn the truth about energy from an objective collection of experts," said Dr. Michael Webber, Associate Director of the Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy at the University of Texas at Austin. "We believe Austin, which was recently listed as one of the greenest cities by Treehugger.com, is the ideal setting for delivering a 360 degree perspective of energy technologies and the policies that directly affect the industry."


Energy Map of America (Flash)


Carbon backlash: coal divides corporations

U.S. coal mining companies, which for years have been branded the bad guys of global warming, are fighting back.

They are questioning not only the science but also the motives of some of the big-name corporations who have made well-publicized commitments to cleaning up their act.


Hindu devotees disappointed as sacred icicle melts

Hundreds of thousands of devotees make a long, tiring trek to the Kashmir mountains each year to look at the natural icy formation, worshipped as a symbol of the god of destruction, Shiva.

But by Monday, just the second day of the two-month-long pilgrimage, the pilgrims only had a tiny stump of ice to look at -- compared to a 3.6-metre (12-foot) high formation that was there a few weeks ago.

"The Shivlingam (Shiv phallus) has melted down completely," Arun Kumar, a senior official of the pilgrimage board, told AFP.


Saudis To Give Extra Protection To Oil Fields

Saudi Arabia will set up special security units to protect oil and industrial facilities against militant attacks, the Interior Minister said in remarks published on Monday.

Prince Nayef bin Abdul-Aziz also told members of the unelected Shura Council that the kingdom was holding more than 3,000 suspects, many linked to a campaign by al Qaeda launched in 2003 to overthrow the pro-Western royal family.

Saudi Arabia has said it foiled at least two major plots since 2006 to hit major oil facilities in the kingdom, the world's largest oil exporter.


Oil Boom, Politics Shape Africa's Future

Europe's great powers once scrambled for dominance across vast, underdeveloped African lands rich in raw resources, including the scarlet palm oil used to grease the first cogs of the industrial revolution.

A century later, a new group of nations are competing for a different valuable, viscous material, with Sub-Saharan Africa closing in on the Persian Gulf as the prime overseas supplier of oil to the last remaining superpower.


Plans to ramp Kuwait's oil production on track, despite minister's resignation, official says

Sheik Ali al-Jarrah al-Sabah, Kuwait's oil minister and member of the ruling family, resigned Saturday, five days after Kuwaiti lawmakers requested his impeachment over allegations that he helped his cousin embezzle public money from a state-owned company more than a decade ago.

"Kuwait's production expansion plans remain unchanged," Farouk al-Zanki, chief executive of Kuwait Oil Company told Dow Jones Newswires on Sunday.


Chinese company OKs deal on Sudan oil

China's No. 1 oil company, CNPC, and Indonesia's PT Pertamina have agreed to co-develop a Sudanese offshore oil block, ignoring international efforts to isolate Sudan over the crisis in its Darfur region, a report said Monday.


China's oil-tanker construction falls behind rising oil imports

The rate of construction of oil tankers for Chinese shipping lines is falling behind the rate of increase in oil imports, which may pose a threat to the country's energy security, a China Ocean Shipping (Group) Co (COSCO) official said.


Japan homeowners swapping oil for electricity

A rush by Japanese homeowners to convert their houses to run solely on electricity has put them in the vanguard of efforts to cut back on oil use, but also risks driving up coal and gas imports if nuclear generators falter.


Rich world's consumerism may cause African famines, experts warn

Food production in developing countries will halve in the next 20 years unless wealthy nations lower their rate of consumption, the Stockholm Environment Institute warned at a weekend conference.

The livelihoods of more than three billion people in the world are being undermined by the wealth of the privileged few, the institute's executive director, Johan Rockstroem, warned.


EU Warns Citizens: Adapt to Climate Change Now

European Union nations must adapt to climate change by using water more efficiently, adjusting crops and farming methods, and caring for elderly people vulnerable to heat, the EU executive said on Friday.

In addition to cutting greenhouse gas emissions to halt global warming, Europeans should change the way they live and work to mitigate the effects of rising temperatures, the European Commission said in a document.

The paper raised the possibility that entire cities may eventually have to be moved.

I am reading TOD from Germany for some time now, I did not write something up to now here on TOD, because of to reasons my english is not so pefekt and secondly there is so much people here know so much about the upcomming energieproblem that i think i cant help much with my small knowledge. In the moment i think a lot about the influence on the american politics in the Middle East. I get more and more convenced that all 911 happenings are a big conspiracy, a big fake what the puplic is been told on msm.

I want to give you some links to what i found on the net. I would like to read your opinion about all this. Tanks for your comments.

For all of you , go on with your great work here on TOD

20 minute flash video
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=49f_1172526096

reply from bbc

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2007/02/part_of_the_conspiracy.htm...

90 minute flash movie about religion, 911, and the fed

www.zeitgeistmovie.com

A german reportage about 911 conspiracy with english subtitle

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3505712702687232327

Hi and welcome mate,

Just remember that we do energy here, and 911 has other places and forums, so please dont bring it up here other than as a side note.

There is also TOD:europe which you can have a look at.
All the best

ust remember that we do energy here,

But I'd love to see more money stuff - pointers to where good debates go on about the alternatives to the fiat cash/ non-oxidizing metals.

I'll second this motion.

Seems to me to be at least as big a problem as resource depletion in its own right.

Money is simply a system of operation that is designed to allow transactions of goods/services in a more sophisticated method than just barter.

Without a good system of finance we can't possibly hope to allocate resources in a sane fashion with or without ample energy sources.

I don't fully understand how the money systems work, but I am trying to learn.

I've watched a couple of good Google videos but to be honest, I'm none the wiser about any alternatives to the current system of finance.

Andy

I don't fully understand how the money systems work

Most don't. You've got Kensian, Miese, and a few other thinkers that one can debate their POV and end up arguing how many fiat dollars can buy you a kiss on the head of a pin.

In my bio page I link to a couple of money theory sites. And they should be of some help. The online book short circuit
http://www.feasta.org/documents/shortcircuit/contents.html talks about money and energy, might be a good place for you to start your journey.

And somewhere there has to be a site where money wonks go to wonk.

Well, that would be me.

Buy my book:

Gold: the Once and Future Money

available at Amazon.com

visit the website

www.newworldeconomics.com

The book is about a lot of things, but one of them, as one might surmise from the title, is how to use precious metals as a basis of monetary systems. This was common throughout the world in 1965, and worked fine at that time, so I will suggest in advance that many people's worries and criticisms of the system are not very well informed.

On the website, I have been doing a fair amount of writing on the subject of economics in the context of resource depletion/a focus on quality of life rather than "growth", which may be of interest.

Most alternatives proposed to the current system of money and financial institutions are worse than what we have now.

Precious metals make no sense as a basis for currency. Whenever you get a big discovery (New World, Calif., Alaska, So. Africa) then you get inflation as more gold (or gold and silver) is pumped into the system. Spain was plagued with hundreds of years of inflation from all the silver imported from roughly 1500 to 1800. The "free" minting of silver in the U.S. from 1896 resulted in an inflation that indirectly led to the Panic of 1907. Thus, forget about gold and silver. (According to some psychoanalysts, gold represents feces and silver urine, and this quirk accounts for the fascination that so many anal types have with precious metals. There may be something to this.)

A basket of commodities as a basis for a kind of warehouse receipts used as money might work pretty well. Never been tried, to the best of my knowledge, but it has been widely discussed for a long time.

Variations of the "social credit" proposals have been tried numerous times with limited (to put it kindly) success.

The best proposal I've seen was put forth by Milton Friedman when he was young--100% reserve banking. There is no reason why this will not work, and plenty of reasons to think it would work as well or better than what we now have.

Hayek and others have advocated competing moneys, in which the bad (inflation-plagued) moneys would fail and be replaced by sound currencies issued by banks or governments.

There is no particular logic in the system we have now; it just evolved to be the way it is today. For example, after the Second World War it was the genius of John Maynard Keynes that designed the Bretton Woods agreement that worked well for twenty years to rebuild the world after the Second World War.

A basket of commodities as a basis for a kind of warehouse receipts used as money might work pretty well. Never been tried, to the best of my knowledge, but it has been widely discussed for a long time.

And perhaps that would be worthy of discussion. With results or interesting bits placed on TOD. The Technocracy position - using kWH would fit the commodities angle and tie directly to energy.

kWH would 'be something needed', would be 'destroyable', could be expanded and contracted, Its just not long-term storable. Or even really short term storable.

The fact that kilowatt hours are not conveniently storable is a fatal flaw for a basis for money. In my own science fiction future history series, 190 proof potable ethanol becomes the new money, with the one liter "Everclear" as the unit of account.

Talk about liquid assets . . . .

Julian Darley has been talking and writing about the (untested) idea of local currencies "backed by" local renewable energy. I've asked him how can you "back" the currency with something that you cannot store, and can only be used once, but havn't gotten an answer. Perhaps facilities to generate such energy, rather than the energy itself, can be an asset worth putting faith in, but how can a currency be based on that? Or perhaps such a generating facility can forward-sell the power it plans to generate, and such receipts then swapped as money? But when they pre-sell the energy, what is used as payment? And, at some point the energy has to be actually used and paid for, there goes the "money supply"?

It is not clear to me whether "money" has to be "backed by" anything at all. You might say that our current "fiat" currency (do fiat-currency haters always say that word with a sneer? :-) is "backed by" the force of goverment (who, in the USA, gave the "federal reserve" (which is neither) the power to control the currency). But faith in the power of such government may be eroding. Is the problem the strength of such faith, or is the problem the uncontrolled printing of such money?

I agree that "100% reserve banking" may help, but perhaps even better would be to return the power of money creation to the government (via spending), as proposed, e.g., by Douthwaite. Perhaps 100% reserve banking is close to that, since the bank can then only gather interest on the money it has on deposit, not on money created out of thin air by loaning it out. But that still relies on "interest" payments, i.e., on perpetual growth (of resource use, not just money supply), and that's the real problem.

Current as 'Currency' ..

As Eric Blair says below, a ready energy supply is not dissimilar to one of the original energy sources and ongoing forms of currency, food, which has a similar problem with intermittency, storability and yet both carry a very high value to us. I would say that your generating equipment, like your farmland becomes your storage capacity, with the somewhat (but only 'somewhat') uncertainty of future yields. What's kept in a Silo or in batteries/pumped storage is more like the Refined Product, actually ready to sell, whereas the equipment and the prepared land/irrigation, etc is somewhere between your stored crude/proven reserves.

I don't expect energy to become the sole basis for a monetary system, but as ready energy becomes more scarce, the dividing line may become blurrier, or I could say academic. A windfarm will deliver fairly constant value, and will be seen to have an understood degree of reliability in doing so.. how does that not become an arm of the economic value-system?

Bob Fiske

I am very sorry i showed up late to this discussion.

If money is to be backed by renewable energy, then it would be a total paradigm change for everyone, and for the better.

Imagine if to expand a business the EROEI and relative amounts of value in value out were ruthlessly checked. Or to start a new one. Businesses which depend upon polluting would find they are not valued as much, especially when most renewable projects involve significant capital outlays at the start, and deliver energy at a constant rate UNTIL THEY are SCRAPPED.

Imagine that, projects which have KNOWN depreciations in energy output over time, unlike OIL/GAS/COAL which is unpredictable.

Wind is much more predictable in comparison to the PRICE of OIL/GAS/COAL. Same with the SUN.

We have an entire 1/4 to 1/3 of the economy geared towards simply ensuring that the economy is lubricated (the finance market), with a conversion to known energy outputs for a period of time this sector of the economy can shrink, and more people be liberated!!

Electricity has a per minute supply-demand balance - what "1 electrodollar" would be backed by is not a certain amount of electricity, but a certain percentage of the available electricity, so in high demand times, your dollar would naturally have less purchasing power, as less energy was available for you.

(choosing to have prices adjusted by the min. to keep up with that, or to simply buy buy the 'average production cost' that todays market sells by is a different question)

And that has been a historical way for a farmer to convert excess crop into something for trade, it stores 'for a long time' and if you have a fire, the miscibility with water means you don't have the same issues with spreading the fire when dealing with oil.

The root of the problem, apart from money is the root of all evil or evil is the root of all money, is that we are attempting to take a static thing, be it gold or paper or seashells, and make it represent a transaction which is a dynamic thing. Money, unfortunately, is subject to the Laws of Motion with all the exponential dislinearities that implies.

That a little money traveling fast can do what a lot of money moving slowly can also do is the nightmare of the central bankers. The much derided fiat money [ is there any Ferrari money?] has the advantage of NOT being based upon a static thing like gold and thus can be adjusted, within limits, to account for velocity. It is far easier and more fun to create it than destroy it, however.

Beware those limits. When too much Fiat money becomes Ferrari money, the braking system - usually high central bank rates - is used to mop up the excess liquidity, leaving those with their necks overleveraged with a case of road rash. We may be about to have a demonstration for those who have forgotten 1980.

Subprime Time? We can have all the beliefs and theories we like and people will still do stupid things with money just like they do stupid things with cars. Believe any economic theory you like, but money will be dynamic and exponential, just like any other moving object. When too much money meets not enough oil?

Don Sailorman
How do I find your books? They sound interesting, I love good sci-fi.
Bob Ebersole

You can find volume one at

http://sailormanslog.blogspot.com/

That novel is entitled "The Adventures of C.C. Eggum" and describes an apocalyptic collapse (helped along but not triggered by Peak Oil) in the near future from the point of view of a young teenage boy.

I'm still waiting for vol's 2,3.....

Volume 2 is finished and clean but not posted anywhere, because I do not know how to post stuff to blogspot.com

The now banned and sometimes lamented Oilceo kindly posted volume Volume One and explained how I could do editing, but I could not figure out how to do that either.

Someday these SF novels may make me rich and famous, but I've begun writing a series of crime novels now, and it will be a couple of years before I get back to science fiction.

I took a look, thought they were quite interesting, looked to me to have commercial potential. You're a damn good storyteller, Don!
Wish I could help with the posting, but I'm a klutz with computers.
I don't lament Oilceo. The guy was clear and coherent sometimes, but apparently had a drinking or drug problem. His selfishness and arrogance was appalling, and I found his trying to sneak back into the blog contemptable and disruptive. I hope the guy gets some help for his problem.
Bob Ebersole

'Everclear' = volatile assets

I think one of the real problems with peak oil is that money, however it is defined, can no longer be nearly as storable as it is today.

Today, we have insurance companies, banks, and all kinds of other financial services set up around the idea that if you have money now, you can have the same amount, and even more, in the future.

Once we are past peak oil, the amount of resources available to society will gradually (or not so gradually) shrink. We no longer will be able to set aside savings today for the future, except on a very limited basis - perhaps food stored away that we will still have, as long as it keeps. Or clothing and some books. But if we have a fixed number of dollars (or whatever), those dollars will buy less and less as time goes on.

Perhaps society can have some sort of fiat currency with a fixed number of units that will always have a big inflation problem. People will learn to treat the new currency very differently from today's currency. No life insurance, for example.

How about "Forever" stamps as a new currency or as the backing for one? One Forever equals one first-class postage stamp. So long as the postal system remains intact there would be solid backing for the currency. I think Ben Franklin would approve.

Remind me to invest some hundreds of $ in the forever stamps.

For only forty-one cents I can buy what three cents used to buy back when a dollar was (more or less) a dollar. If you don't buy "forever" stamps now, I imagine that first-class postage will cost you about a dollar by the year 2012 and possibly two debased dollars by the year 2020, and about three dollars by 2024, thus providing an inflation factor of over one hundred in much less than one hundred years.

Don,
What do you think of Ralph Borsodi's "Constants"? Here's one link among many. http://www.cooperativeindividualism.org/swann_robert_on_borsodi_and_mone...

Todd

Borsodi's ideas are sound: They have been around for more than a century and have been tried out in various times and places. One problem these schemes have, however, is that they are not "legal tender." A great advantage of dollar bills is that I can FORCE you to accept them at face value for all debts private and public. Thus, suppose I owe a hundred thousand dollars on my mortgage: I can always pay it off with exactly $100,000. As a holder of debt, this works to my advantage during times of inflation. Thus I can pay off my back taxes, my credit cards, my car and whatever debt I have in dollars, regardless of their real value.

Now, if dollars go to a hundreth of their current value, suddely I'm out of debt . . . Bring the Jubilee!

Notice that with "constants" and their lack of legal tender status there is no incentive to inflate the currency to worthlessness. Governments, on the other hand, are chronically impecunious and often try to inflate their way out of difficulties, as the U.S. govt. has been doing since about 1940.

A great advantage of dollar bills is that I can FORCE you to accept them at face value for all debts private and public.

Not so. I went to the IRS office to pay one of their demand letters (for $300) and was told that they would not take my 3 $100 bills to settle the paper they sent me.

You could have sent the three one-hundred dollars in by registered mail, return receipt requested. Refusal to accept legal tender is a federal crime, and it also opens one to civil lawsuits. Thus, you could have sued the IRS and one (plus getting individual judgments from any individual agents who refused your offer of legal tender).

BTW, I've never heard of any tax authority anywhere refusing cash, though they are legally entitled to refuse thousands of pennies (since pennies are not legal tender for large debts).

Thus, you could have sued the IRS

I'll keep that in mind the next time I say to myself "Oh, hey my life lacks problems - what can I do to create all kinds of issues for myself!"

I've never heard of any tax authority anywhere refusing cash
I suggest that anyone who does owe the IRS to try paying with cash. Just to see if you have the 'we don't take FRNs' problem.

in federal lawbooks if the fed refuses to accept legal tender your debt is null and void as you made a good faith effort to pay with legal tender.

this does NOT apply with private debts (ie person to person or person to store)

(According to some psychoanalysts, gold represents feces and silver urine, and this quirk accounts for the fascination that so many anal types have with precious metals. There may be something to this.)

Come on now!

With Peaking in mind, rising energy costs create increased mining costs. Gold mining is likely to be less economic therefore less gold will be produced. With falling gold production a gold backed currency would likely lead to continuing deflation not inflation.

Governments have gone on and off the gold standard when it suits them. They can find a way to corrupt anything.

From Alan Greenspan in 1966........

http://www.321gold.com/fed/greenspan/1966.html

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good

say, not that this is an important insight, but how about digging a hole in your yard and depositing many tons of copper? Not bloody likely that will ever be confiscated, and even if people knew it was there - which they wouldn't have to - it would not be susceptible to casual sneak-thievery. In effect, you'd have a backyard copper mine with known reserves and 100% ore purity. You could paint it with epoxy first if you didn't want your grass and trees to all die....

I'm just saying....

> In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation.

Ironic then that the long term return in T-Bills is higher than Gold (example: 1972 to 2002 T-Bills returned about 600% and Gold returned about 533% -- and if you care about the volatility of the return then T-Bills kill Gold).