DrumBeat: July 7, 2007
Posted by Leanan on July 7, 2007 - 9:15am
Topic: Miscellaneous
World 'building up risks over energy supplies'
Matt Simmons, founder of Houston-based Simmons and Company Inter-national, criticised the report's findings.Simmons, a member of the council who provided input for the report, pointed to a graph showing oil production from existing reserves falling below 20 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 from current levels near 75m bpd.
In that chart, the addition of output from known reserves, enhanced oil techniques, unconventional sources like Canada's oil sands and 'exploration potential' boosts the total to near 120m bpd by 2030.
"We don't have any idea where those reserves are going to come from or how we are going to get them out of the ground," Simmons said.
"The odds of this ever happening are zero."
On the other side of the issue, prominent energy expert Daniel Yergin, chairman of oil consultancy Cambridge Energy Research Associates, who served as vice chairman of demand issues for the council, has dismissed the idea of 'peak oil'.
Transforming Civilization: Gods, God, Emergence, and Transcendence.
The course of human history from the dawning of agriculture in the Near East about ten thousand years ago, to the present, can be understood as embodying the progressive development of ever more complex political economies. Developing this complexity has required coordinating the actions of ever larger groups of humans together for collective purposes.After 10,000 years of this process of political and economic complexification, civilization now finds itself confronting fundamental crises of survival due to peak oil, global climate change, and political and economic failures to deal with these crises. Given this reality, an understanding of the dynamics of this process, using systems theory offers considerable insight into our history. Furthermore, it offers insights into what we must do in the here and now to ensure that civilization can transform itself to survive and thrive in the face of these ever intensifying challenges.
Governor: Idle Coffeyville plant won't raise gas prices
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius discounted Friday the necessity of gasoline price hikes at Kansas retail pumps in response to the flood-induced shutdown of Coffeyville's oil refinery.The 600-employee plant in southeast Kansas may be silenced until September, and industry analysts say production losses could prompt cost increases in Great Plains states. The refinery was responsible for no more than 1 percent of overall U.S. gasoline production.
"I hope that that shows up in the prices — not more than 1 percent of an increase," the governor said. "It should not have that significant of an impact."
Iraq is reducing its gas subsidies, in line with international agreements and to fight smuggling, as it struggles to meet demand amid poor security.The Oil Ministry said it will hike imported gasoline prices by 15 percent, the first increase since March.
Ration system is to be introduced to sell fuel to all vehicles in the Sri Lanka Army controlled territory in Mannaar district with effect from Monday. Vehicles registered with the divisional secretariat offices in Musali, Mannaar and Naanaaddaan, with registered authorisation are eligible to buy fuel needed for a week.
N.L. Inuit community copes with recurring gas shortage
Local gasoline supplies have run out for residents of an Inuit community on Labrador's coast for the seventh straight summer.The Nunatsiavut government tried to resolve the recurring problem in Rigolet by putting in a new gas station last fall, but the tanks went dry in April.
China's biggest state oil company has deepened its involvement in Sudan by signing a deal to help develop offshore oil, despite international efforts to isolate the African nation because of the humanitarian crisis in its Darfur region.
The House energy package is missing some key components.
Oil Workers, Petrobras Reach Deal; Strike Averted
Unionized workers at Brazil's Petrobras will not go on strike because the federal energy company met union requests, Jose Maria Rangel, director of the oil workers' federation, told BNamericas.
Cross-country ‘Biotour’ impressed with the Harbor
“We haven’t really seen sustainability on this kind of industrial scale yet,” Alan Palm said after seeing the giant pile of woodwaste that powers the mill at Grays Harbor Paper.Palm’s comment speaks volumes. He and three other partners from New England are on the final leg of “Biotour” — a cross-country journey to observe sustainability in action and to demonstrate the real-world application of renewable energy.
‘Lights Out: The Electricity Crisis, the Global Economy and What It Means to You’
For anybody who believes that electricity will always be easily available with the flip of a wall switch, Jason Makansi's book "Lights Out" provides an important education.Makansi worries about the availability of electricity — not centuries from now, but next year. Still, he comes across as a realist, not an alarmist. He is confident that plenty of fuel is available. He is less confident that electricity in the future will reach every home and business reliably and affordably.
BP PLC has agreed to pay $18 million to settle claims that it manipulated power markets during the 2000-2001 California energy crisis, federal energy regulators said Friday.
Brazil faces near-term electricity shortage; government response to potential crisis has been slow
Rising electricity rates for the industrial consumer are depriving local companies from the competitive advantage of producing goods in Brazil, a country which derives more than 80% of its electricity from hydroelectric generation. According to FGV, a think tank, Brazil will lose 8.6% of GDP growth by 2015, the equivalent of BRL 214bn (USD 107bn) at 2005 prices, as a result of soaring electricity rates.
Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega ordered a reduction of the working day in the State institutions, to reduce the negative impact of energy cuts in the country's economic and social life.According to a decree read by the statesman Thursday, all government work places will now open from 7am to 1pm local time as of July 6.
Rationing looms in Africa energy crisis
Sub-Saharan Africa must urgently impose power rationing on companies and populations to limit the effects of a worsening energy crisis, industry and government experts said.
Argentina Offers Tariff-Free Diesel Imports Up To 300,000CM
Argentina's Energy Secretariat issued a resolution Friday reapplying a system of tariff-free import quotas for diesel up to a total of 300,000 cubic meters of the fuel.The resolution, aimed at overcoming domestic shortages, is based on the same system introduced in March. It permits refineries and other fuel distributors to apply to the Secretariat to have an quota assigned for either diesel or diesel oil imports.
Brazil clears Bolivia to divert natgas to Argentina
Brazil's mines and energy ministry (MME) has agreed to let Bolivia divert 1Mm3/d from its natural gas import contract to supply Argentina, an MME spokesperson told BNamericas.
Idaho regulators approve Avista power measure
The Idaho Public Utilities Commission said on Friday it approved a measure for utility Avista Corp. to recover unusual power supply costs not included in base electric rates.The annual adjustment will increase or decrease power rates for conditions outside the utility's control that can change supply costs, the commission said.
Conditions include changes in hydropower generation due to reduced river flows or unexpected changes in fuel costs or wholesale market prices for energy.
Working Toward Energy Independence
In order to gain energy independence, North Dakota farmers may need to change their crop rotation. But Conrad and scientists say that could be a challenge Scientists say they`re figuring out what doesn`t work through their research. But they`re working hard to figure out what will.
The urbanist proposal isn't "hey, jerks, why don't you all move to dense downtowns." Rather, the proposal is something like "why don't we impose carbon taxes so that things like driving long distances and heating or cooling large detached structures are priced in accordance with their social cost? Why don't we stop having the federal government heavily subsidize driving cars as the preferred mode of transportation? Why don't we have more areas that allow for high-density zoning, thus reducing the cost of urban housing?" It's not that we urbanists are unaware that many people live in low density areas because its cheaper, it's precisely that we are aware of this fact that makes us believe that the "traditional unipolar downtown" could make a comeback.
Gas Prices Fuel Purchases Of Electric Cars
A growing number of Americans have steered clear of rising gasoline prices by turning to electric cars.
Iran to stop making gasoline-only cars
Iran, the Middle East's biggest carmaker, will stop producing cars that only run on gasoline this month and will instead ensure all new vehicles run on gas too, an official said in remarks published on Saturday.
Iowa ethanol plant put on hold
Plans for an ethanol plant in this eastern Iowa town are on hold until developers can look at other ways to produce biofuel and look for financial partners.Larry Daily said he and his partners at River/Gulf Energy decided the project was too risky when corn prices climbed to $4.50 a bushel and ethanol dropped to less than $2 a gallon during the winter months.
Experts: Withdrawal no reason to doubt Shell's oil shale technology
Oil shale experts say their confidence in Royal Dutch Shell’s in situ oil shale extraction technology was not shaken when the company announced last month it withdrew a state mining permit application for its long-awaited oil shale test.“I don’t think it has implications,” said James T. Bartis, lead author of the 2005 RAND Corp. report on the prospects for oil shale development in the United States. “What they’re doing is they’re acknowledging things are complicated and they need to do their homework first.”
Peak Oil Passnotes: $80 Oil Beckons
The price of a barrel Brent crude is working its way back up to its records of $78.64 set last August 7. A steady and sure combination of factors has pushed it over $75 per barrel.But when it pushes up against levels of $78 per barrel, which way is it going to go then?
I'm going to let you in on a little secret today.I'm going to reveal one of my best sources for peak oil-related news.
It's Tom Whipple, a former CIA man who spent about a decade summarizing world news for the CIA's morning report to the President. In short, he's one of the best at scanning the news and picking out interesting trends and relevant bits.
A London energy think tank gives the planet around four years before peak oil production declines and demand, forever, overreaches supply. Drinking water everywhere is threatened by pollution and overuse. And global warming, like a wasting disease, undermines more micro-climates every day.
What no politician or the mainstream media seems to acknowledge as yet is the fact that climate change has been primarily provoked by the global north's senseless drive for depleting the earth's natural resources, and its unhindered need for a never ending consumerism.
African farmers hit by climate change
Corn farmers in southern Zambia used to be able to predict the year's first rainfall, almost to the day. Now, October often stretches into November, and November into December, before the rain comes.The rainy season in this largely poor southern African nation, a study shows, has been getting shorter, more intense and more erratic, especially over the last 20 years — symptoms of longer-term climatic changes occurring across Africa.
Alpine wildlife feeling the heat from global warming
Global warming is threatening to wipe out several animal and plant species in the Alps, according to a study by the World Wide Fund for Nature released on Friday.WWF expert Stegan Ziegler said the effects of global warming manifested themselves three times more strongly in the Alps than elsewhere.
Non-OPEC peak oil threat receding
Non-OPEC peak oil, or the point of maximum production of oil, will not occur before 2014, according to analysts Wood Mackenzie.The company has disputed views that a pinnacle may be in sight and contends strong supply growth will prevail in the short term. Barring unexpected disruptions to production, Wood Mackenzie expects total global capacity to grow steadily from 86.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2006 to 96.7 million bpd in 2010.
Gas prices rise, reversing recent trend
Retail gas prices rose overnight Friday for the first time in more than a month as the closure of a Kansas refinery sent prices in the center of the country sharply higher. Oil futures, meanwhile, surged $1 a barrel to another 10-month high.
High oil prices are here to stay, analysts warn
Crude oil is unlikely to give up its almost 20pc gains in price this year and the risks are tilted toward it moving higher, leading oil analysts have warned.
Ford, utility join to promote plug-in vehicles
Ford Motor Co and power utility Southern California Edison will announce an unusual alliance on Monday aimed at clearing the way for a new generation of rechargeable electric cars, the companies said.
NJ enacts anti-global warming law
New Jersey became the third state in the nation to enact a comprehensive greenhouse gas reduction law Friday, requiring the Garden State to significantly cut emissions of global-warming gases.
Tokyo, Sydney kick off climate change concerts
Pop stars in Tokyo and Sydney kicked off a global chain of climate change concerts on Saturday aimed at persuading the world to go green.
Global Warming and Your Wallet
For all the talk about warming, leading politicians have yet to educate their constituents (and their colleagues) about an unpleasant and inescapable truth: any serious effort to fight warming will require everyone to pay more for energy. According to most scientists, the long-term costs of doing nothing — flooding, famine, drought — would be even higher than the costs of acting now. But unless Americans understand and accept the trade-off — higher prices today to avoid calamity later — the requisite public support for real change is unlikely to build.
Ford is going to build a plug in car without an internal combustion engine? Will wonders never cease? Like a change of course for the Titanic, some time will be required.
I suppose big oil will attempt to stop this move but on what grounds?
I am a bit surprised for I thought China/India would go the electric car route before America. Maybe Ford is tired of getting their brains beat out by the Prius?
Maybe Ford has decided that they would rather remain in biz as an auto manufacturer even if it means changing their dealership biz model and displeasing big oil?
If these vehicles are reliable and reasonably priced I will buy one.
Talking is one thing...execution of an idea is another (kind of like stated petroleum reserves vs. actual production).
I will believe it when I see it.
You are probably right Dragonfly41. Sadly, by the time the vehicle is ready for market (if ever) it will probably be a lease arrangement like the EV1 and after a few years the vehicles will be recalled and crunched.
Big oil could care less what Ford, GM, or any other auto Mfg. does. They can sell every brl of oil they extract at a higher price each year for as long as it can be extracted. Also Big Oil loves corn ethanol it provides a larger market for diesel and NG, and displaces not one wit of Gas. Gas demand is increasing at twice the rate of corn ethanol production.
Been listening to the Live Earth concerts on XM radio this morning. Lots of DJ banter about GW between the sets.
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Take a look at this heuristic for USA oil production
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2007/07/production-as-discovery.html
It uses the dispersive discovery model to map production. The reason it holds fairly well on a semi-log plot is because the dynamic range in the data is so large -- 4+ orders of magnitude in production values.
This is neat!
It looks to me like like this model would forecast 1 million barrels a year by 2025, or 2.7 million barrels per day. Assuming the model applies to crude and condensate, we are currently at about 5.2 million barrels per day. This would imply an annual decline rate of about 3% per year, which doesn't sound too unreasonable.
Note that In order to just maintain flat imports, our oil consumption has to decline at the same volumetric rate that our domestic production declines.
Hello Gail the Actuary,
Obviously, this is not directed at you personally, but I hope the following is illustrative:
Imagine everyone self-whittling away at their body at 3%/year Forever. Would you start off Year One by cutting off both ears + your pinky fingers + your pinky toes, or is it better to just start off by carving out your gall-bladder? What is the plan for Year Two--> one hand + one foot, or is it better to just whack off one hand + half a forearm, or lose a kidney? Year Three, Year Four, etc, as this unstoppable depletion process inexorably continues?
At what point does this whittling process make the loss of mobility and dexterity impossible for you to feed yourself? Or, would you choose to not whittle away at yourself, but instead, carve away large hunks of flesh with a machete' from your neighbor?
The numerous Societal Blowback newslinks, that we see all time here on TOD, can be expected to exponentially grow.
My hope is that Peakoil Outreach, combined with positive biosolar habitat ERoEI alternatives [PV,wind,tidal,etc], whatever they may ultimately prove to be, can be the new societal 'limbs + ribs + organs' for future generations.
A long ago posting of mine suggested: making it obviously clear to everyone the importance of the maximum #'s of other lifeforms making it through the Bottleneck Squeeze with us; a direct linkage of us to the Extinction Rate.
Briefly, for every 10% extinction rate greater than the normal and natural background extinction rate--> we All lop off a finger. As we start losing more digits: we quickly become highly incentivized to protect the remaining species. Alternatively, if we really start to fail at ecological mitigation: the final loss of our thumbs will bring us into true harmony with our severely-amputated environmental state.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Kind of puts those gas price signs we've all seen - Regular $x.xx, MidGrade "Arm", Premium "Leg" -- in a different light!
I've watched a little of the LiveEarth concert on TV too.
Has anyone else noticed that all the adverts that ask you to "answer the call" mention how much ENERGY can be saved by doing the recommended activity (recycling, reusing, inflating tyres, CFL bulbs, etc.) - no mention of GW, even though GW awareness and action is the stated reason for the concert.
Could GW really be the non-panic method of getting populations to power down?
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Could GW really be the non-panic method of getting populations to power down?
If one thinks that addressing overpopulation, mis-management of energy, arguments over taxes/fiat money/blowback over the way oil has been handled in a political manner - and the endpoints on these would be 'lower energy use' which is gonna be the less messy sell: Fix any/all of the various energy related problems *OR* blame everyones use of fossil fuels and powerdown because of GW?
GW might be the 'not as panic-y' way to power down. Other alternatives like the oil nations not accepting American Dollars strikes me as the more messy options. :-(
IMHO, by addressing energy use, but hiding that behind only one facet of the issue (i.e. GW/carbon emissions), we fail to acknowledge other facets of the problem.
By concentrating on GW, awareness of economic ideals of infinite growth/debt/banking/etc., population overshoot, externalities encouraged by industrialised nations (such as child labour/environmental degredation) and so on are not being considered properly, if at all.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Here's another Einstein quote that also fits the discussion:
"The formulation of the problem is often more essential than its solution” - Albert Einstein
The problem is mobility, yet we spend a major amount of time worrying about how to fill gas tanks.
Please consider this extract from the Systems Engineering book being written by Professors at West Point:
System Engineering: Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management
by, Gregory S. Parnell, Ph.D., Editor
by, Patrick J. Driscoll, Ph.D., Editor
by, Dale L. Henderson, Ph.D., Design Editor
In fact, one of the most significant failings of the current U.S. transportation system is that the automobile was never thought of as being part of a system until recently. It was developed and introduced during a period that saw the automobile as a standalone technology largely replacing the horse and carriage. So long as it outperformed the previous equine technology, it was considered a success. This success is not nearly so apparent if the automobile is examined from a systems thinking perspective. In that guise, it has managed to fail miserably across a host of dimensions. Many of these can be observed in any major US city today: oversized cars and trucks negotiating tight roads and streets, bridges and tunnels incapable of handling daily traffic density, insufficient parking, poor air quality induced in areas where regional air circulation geography restricts free flow of wind, a distribution of the working population to suburban locations necessitating automobile transportation, and so on. Had the automobile been developed as a multilateral system interconnected with urban (and rural) transportation networks and environmental systems, U.S. cities would be in a much different situation than they find themselves in today.
What is important here is not that the automobile could have been developed differently, but that in choosing to design, develop and deploy the automobile as a stand alone technology, a host of complementary transportation solutions to replace the horse and buggy were not considered.
We can design better and build better.
The problem is mobility
Counterpoint.
The Problem is our Urban Form
I just walked 2.5 blocks to get a special local lunch for the volunteers about to leave town.
Homemade cottage cheese with vine ripened Creole tomatoes picked yesterday.
The farmer picked them yesterday morning and then delivered them to 3 neighborhood grocery stores yesterday @ noon in the back of his pick-up truck.
Zara's, the corner grocery store, makes their own cottage cheese (milk from Brown's Dairy, 7 blocks from Zara's, Browns collects raw milk from cows within radius of about 60 or 70 miles).
I will walk to St. Vincent's Guest House (1840s Orphanage) 5 blocks away with my farewell gift.
New Orleans could use more streetcars and wants more.
But a dense, human scale neighborhood is what is needed and the St. Charles streetcar has sustained ours.
More Later,
Alan
Some things we agree on. I think it would be wise for communities to Ark-up. Self-reliance is valuable in it own right.
I am unsure about suburbia. It might be a life-saver if yards are converted to gardens. There is not as much farmable space in highly dense urban areas.
A lot will depend on luck, when the erratic spikes of peak oil manifest. Hopefully gas prices with ratchet up until the pain causes us the take long term action. So far we have been unlucky in that the pain comes and goes; and with it our attention span.
Change is coming. It will be big and a surprise.
Alan, vine ripened tomatoes and fresh cottage cheese-you must be trying to seduce the volunteers into staying in NOLA.
Bob Ebersole
Alan, vine ripened tomatoes and fresh cottage cheese-you must be trying to seduce the volunteers into staying in NOLA
Uh'mmm, Yes.
About 10% of the volunteers say that they want to move to New Orleans and some in fact do so. They are about as good new citizens as one could hope for to repopulate the city.
The people of New Orleans have VERY positive feelings towards volunteers and saying that one is an ex-volunteer that decided to move opens doors quickly.
One had a grandmother with a PhD in Educational Development that recently retired from Pennsylvania and moved to Florida (and said that she was bored). She is going to talk to her about moving to New Orleans and helping the school system rebuild into a better system.
My other treats are a Port of Call hamburger and then on to Donna's on Monday night (jazz club), muffalotes and po-boys. And a a friendly face :-)
Best Hopes for more Volunteers,
Alan
On to final edit of article for ASPO newsletter.
Alan, I think New Orleans is the best city in the USA. Great food, great people, great music. The fact that the feds abandoned you just shows the superiority of your home, its too good for that obnoxious bunch in Washington.
The island nation of Galveston is pretty fine too, but we're definitely outclassed on the food and music. Still, we have a 17ft. concrete seawall, never topped by a storm surge. Here's hoping ya'll can get some 1903 technology!
Bob Ebersole
Agree, NO = best seafood on the continent overall. Galveston does have a few gems, my favorite was Guidos. An Italian restaurant a mile or two down the road to the East had a good Parmesan. When I was still with Amoco, I was all over the continent. I was on a quest to find the best crab cakes, lol. Interestingly, Lafayette, La. had the number two ranked cakes, can't remember the name of the restaurant however. Number 1 for crab cakes was Bookbinders in Philly! My opinion scandalized a coworker that was based in Baltimore, hehe.
The 'Captains Table' in Chrisfield had the best crabcakes I have eaten...they tore down the restaurant and built a bunch of damn condos.
Relayer,
The restaurant east on the Seawall is Mario's, located at 6th and Seawall. Excellent crab cakes too. Guidos has unfortunately been sold to Landry's Restaurants, owned by Tillman Fertita and has gone downhill. He also owns Landry's,Willie G's, Joe's Crab Shack, The Saltgrass Steakhouse, The Rainforest Cafe and the Aquarium. Stay away, except the Saltgrass has decent steaks. He has a real touch for taking great local restaurants and turning them to theme restaurants with mediocre food.
Clary's, on Teichman Road is the best nice seafood house on this part of the coast now. There are several other pretty good ones, though-Shrimp N' Stuff at 39th and O has the best gumbo, great shrimp and fried oysters, the Cajun Greek has excellent red snapper ponchetrain, great crabs and crawfish pie, the Captains Table has great stuffed flounder.
No wonder I'm 20 lbs overweight, I love to eat!
Bob Ebersole
Ah man, that bites. Guidos used to be one the best reasons to stay on the the Seawall. Used to hit Texas City refinery 4 to 6 times a year and Galveston ended up being my favorite place to stay. Nice air museum in town. Marios, yea that's the one, don't recall thinking to try the crab cakes there though, oh well. Didn't realize those others were owned by the same guy. Yea, typical chain restaurants, although there is a Joe's within range and is acceptable for when I need a fix. My experience with Landry's has been hit-or-miss. Sadly my kids like going to the Rainforest downtown Chicago, overpriced for what you get to me. (Best crab cakes in Chicago at Shaws downtown.) Have not tried a Saltgrass. When it's time for a steak we go do one of a couple local owned things nearby.
There is actually a decent Cajun restaurant within about 6 miles or so started up by a guy that moved up here from NO, very good. His etoufee is killer, good gumbo and jambalaya also. (Spelling on those? lol) Beans with rice, wow, just a simple thing, but when spiced correctly can be great. One of those simple things in life, eh? I had never really gotten into Cajun cooking until getting that job and spending time down in Louisiana and South Texas. What an eye-opener.
Stopped for lunch one day en route to a chopper base to go offshore for a week first time, I think it was near Houma, LA. Little local owned cafe, there was a rack on the table with about 30 different bottles of hot sauce, lol. Made valiant attempt to try them all on catfish. Most were darn good!
Man, when I took the transfer to Chicago, all of a sudden I was on the road all the time eating out every night, gained 19 lbs. that first year. Like you, eating is, uhm, my 2nd love.
I am in mourning for Guidos now, sigh. If I ever make it back down there, will ask you to steer me to some good places, hehe.
I understand that the automobile was designed to make money. Not to solve a transportation problem, not to make people's lives better, not to improve community relationships or their sex-lives. All that, and more was a sort of implied promise -- but systems engineering was not, and was never supposed to be part of the marketing strategy of Ford and GM.
I suppose that it is possible for a society to change gears and actually act rationally. I'm not aware of any historical precedent, but I would love to be corrected on that. And I suppose that TOD might actually form the nucleus of a rational world, but I can't quite see how that will work. Geeks do not do well in Congress.
I think Henry Ford would say that he made affordable cars to better the lives of people. It has. Could you imagine the amount of horse crap there would be if we still used horses.
The technology of personal, on-demand mobility has paved the way for vast advances in our understand and economic development.
Unfortunately, it has been subsidized to an extent that what should have become painful about it in 1973 has remained masked to most people.
In general, I think it would be wise, but not practical, to remove all subsidies from all forms of transportation and let the market pick what is most valuable. It is cause less shock, if we wean our addictions.
I think the best way to make a radical shift, is to give people something they want more than cars. In very specific niches, we have devised JPods, that can be privately financed to automate highly repetitive travel at a profit.
If they are well enough received, and there is time for them to propagate before Peak Oil crushes the economy, we have a good chance to make the corner.
The first networks will likely be built in Sunnyvale, CA, near the Mall of America (Minneapolis, MN) and Dollywood (Pigeon Forge, TN).
As with Henry Ford, we believe that personal mobility equates to economic, social and educational opportunity. We believe that personal, on-demand mobility is a manifestation of liberty.
Personal cars are imagined to be a sort of "liberty" in the US, the product perhaps of watching too many car commercials. In actuality:
Cars are a major financial burden. A typical car today costs about $7000 per year of after-tax $$ to operate. That's not too bad for many people, but for some people that is insurmountable. They are effectively stranded. On top of that, there is additional cost for all sorts of car-related stuff, such as garages or paid parking in more urban areas. How many thousands of $$ does a typical two-car garage cost?
Cars are also a major pain in the butt. They break, get into accidents, are stolen, need to be maintained, washed, etc.
I lived in Tokyo for five years without a car. Japan has a fabulous transit system, both within the city and throughout the country. I went on week-long backcountry ski trips via trains and buses, all very conveniet. Having such a system is real freedom -- no major financial outlays, no maintenance, no worries about having too many drinks, no major risk of accidents, no drain of time and energy, no looking for parking. Just pay your $1.50 for the subway. Easy to reduce expenditure, if necessary -- just don't go on long trips -- while a car is almost entirely sunk costs.
I've lived both ways, and not having a car is true freedom. A car, in the US, is like a tax on being alive.
Of course, many Americans will argue until they are blue that I am wrong. They, in their limited experience and laughably narrow views, tend to assume that I am talking about something theoretical rather than real. It cannot be! I already know that it is. For me, it is as obvious as the moon. Americans are a pretty pathetic bunch.
OTOH this perhaps deceptively hints at the existence of a free lunch - which is the typical problem discussing transportation, all modes of which are massively overused because they are massively subsidized.
The typical Japanese household pays the equivalent of thousands of dollars a year in taxes just to support JR, never mind the Tokyo Metro. Despite that, a $1.50 fare generally only takes one a kilometer or two. To go much of anywhere one usually must pay a JR East (which, in Tokyo, functions as their equivalent of an S-Bahn or RER) fare ranging to somewhere north of $5 just for a mere ten or fifteen km, and/or an expensive fare on one of the fully private rail lines.
In exchange for such heavy expense, the trains are very efficient and nice - and, most of all, punctual, which is always a pleasant shock to one used to the shiftlessness, sloth, and mulish stupidity of US transit operators - but in some cases they are inhumanely overcrowded. And they are trains, so they only go where and when they go, not necessarily where and when you need to go. (That's less of a problem for tourists and visitors, who have more than they can ever see even if they limit themselves to where the trains go.) For example, after about midnight, all you get is the shaft.
Oh, and the frequent and relatively comprehensive service near Tokyo does rely on the oppressive presence of wall-to-wall people stuffing every conceivable nook and cranny, as not only is Japan the size of California but with nearly half the US population, but much of that population is crammed into Honshu's tiny eastern coastal plain. To put it mildly, not every North American is going to want to live that way in order to have the service. And away from that crushing mass, transit service even in Japan becomes the same logistical nightmare that it is in most uncrowded places throughout the world.
I agree with you PaulS. My brother-in-law lives and works in Osaka. We visited him in 2004 for 2 weeks. Public transportation in Japan is extremely punctual, clean and convenient. But it is extremely expensive (like everything else in Japan) and overcrowded. I guess it is as expensive to take public transportation in Japan as it is to maintain a car in the US. If you live 30 km away from work you could easily spend $20/day on transportation. Electricity is twice as expensive as US, food and water is very expensive and apartments are very small and expensive. And the Japanese culture makes it difficult for "gaijin" to assimilate.
Overall I would say that it is not a very pleasant place to live unless you were born and brought up there and are an ethnic Japanese.
I always felt I was getting what I was paying for... a safe, on time method of transportation. Yes, Japanese fares are more than some Europeans and Americans are used to, but I always accepted that quality of service was worth it. Also, while there are very crowded trains in Japan, there are also plenty that are not so so crowded. But here we are at a cultural divide, because what American's consider "crowded" the Japanese may consider "comfortable."
Not at all. Having done both (car commute in the US, trains in Japan) I can assure you that the trains are much less costly. Less convenient yes, as one has to adhere to the train companies' schedules, but less expensive also. Note that regular commuters often can get passes that cost less than individual tickets. Also, students often get half price, and in some cases seniors ride at lower costs or even no cost.
Apartments are small for several reasons, not the least of which is limited land available. However, my housing costs in Japan were not more than what I had experienced in coastal California! The space was smaller of course.
To reach the point where it is actually less expensive to live in Japan, yes, less expensive than California, one has to embrace the Asian lifestyle and not try to recreate your American lifestyle.
Japan is a pleasant place to live, as long as a gaijin one accepts that one is an outsider and always will be. That btw was much worse before the age of oil.
Truer words have rarely been written; that applies to food, housing, transportation, entertainment, everything. The living costs of expats who fail to follow that advice are truly stupendous.
Nor, up above, was I trying to say that Japan is unpleasant - among other things I have found it fascinating but also different - just that IMO one should not expect or anticipate that most North Americans would adapt readily, willingly, or well to similar conditions. A short visit is one thing, day-in-and-day-out living for an indefinite period is quite another.
For example, I recall some folks from the metro DC area who had an extra day on a business trip, who I discovered had frittered it away at the hotel because they had walked the 1/3 mile to the JR train station, found it "intimidating", and come back. I said, what a shame, didn't you see the big overhead map, where every station is named in familiar-looking romaji as well as in Japanese? You just select the one you want using the English mode of the fare machine and put in your yen; and out comes your ticket and off you go. But they were having none of it. And that was such a very small thing on a very short visit.
N.B. most Japanese will be well aware that you are a gaijin, an outsider, and well aware that it can take a lifetime to master the complexity of their culture. In the more cosmopolitan regions, at least, they seem to be reasonable about it so long as you don't lapse too often into being gaijin da, i.e. too foreign, perhaps to the point of seeming or actually being disrespectful.
Econguy,
"Cars are a major financial burden"
really like your post and its description of the true burden of car ownership and driving. I have many patients on public assistance or who are elderly on fixed incomes. They would never think of it this way, but they often spend as much or more on their car than they do on their house. A common scenario around here (Appalachia) is a $25,000 SUV parked outside a $20,000 trailer home. At least the trailer home is good for 40 or 50 years if maintained.
I've said before that in America you're better off in many respects if you're paraplegic than if you are epilleptic and have a seizure every 6 months. A paraplegic can at least still get just about anywhere in his car, whereas the epilleptic in most places in America has no options but to go on disability and sit at home, at the mercy of friends and family to escort them on a weekly trip to the grocery store.
"I've lived both ways, and not having a car is true freedom. A car, in the US, is like a tax on being alive."
I've always felt the same way- that cars are not "liberating" as the automobile manufacturers would have us believe. That notion of freedom is a theme in many car commercials- driving on a winding road with the convertible top down, beautiful sky, no other cars in site. Most of the time, however, much of the driving one does is hardly liberating. You're stuck behind slower traffic on the freeway, battling to change lanes. You're stopping every block at a light. You go when you're told to go, and stop when you're told to stop. You're stuck in one seat and in one position the entirety of your trip.
I have no idea who this quote is from but this also seems to pretty much perfectly apply to U.S. politics.