DrumBeat: July 10, 2007
Posted by Leanan on July 10, 2007 - 8:56am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Prediction #1 (of 3) from Oil Expert Matt Simmons: ‘Real Risk’ Gas Pumps Run Dry This Summer
“You won’t see it until it’s happened,” he said. It could start in any region of the U.S., he added, and once the media gets wind of it, Americans everywhere will rush to “top off” their gas tanks, exacerbating the situation until it becomes a full blown emergency.
Prediction #2 (of 3) from Oil Expert Matt Simmons: World to Soon Realize Oil Production Peaked
Matthew R. Simmons, head of Simmons & Company International, a Houston-based energy investment bank, doesn’t just believe that peak oil has already happened. He told EnergyTechStocks.com that in another year or so the world will wake up and say – in Simmons’ words – “Oh, damn. We peaked in May 2005.”
Kurt Cobb: Napping on the railroad tracks
Napping on the railroad tracks sounds risky on its face. But it may not feel that way if you don't know you're napping on the tracks.Humans seem programmed to believe that the future will look pretty much like the past. But the narrative of history is the narrative of unexpected events. And, so it is surprising that when it comes to resource depletion, cornucopian thinkers love to refer to history. Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, likes to say, "This is not the first time the world has run out of oil. It is more like the fifth." But even though Yergin admits that oil is a finite resource (and that therefore its total quantity is declining), he invites us to snooze with him on the railroad tracks because history has shown that so far that it's been safe to do so.
Russian oil supply threat - Europe can't choose between more or less
Russian oil producers have been losing oil output at Russia's onshore fields since February of this year, and a combination of tax, investment, and technical factors has led to a forecast of "dire straits", according to a new report by Moscow's Alfa Bank.But these straits appear to be deeper and direr for oil consumers, than for Russia as a producer; especially since new oilfield developments are likely to swing the direction of oilfield growth in the direction of China. Korea, and Japan.
Alfa Report Sees Trouble Looming in Oil Sector
Alfa Bank warned on Monday that "production stagnation is unavoidable" at the country's oil fields and further downgraded its target prices for shares in most Russian oil companies.The dramatic worsening in its outlook was the result of the government's reluctance to consider lowering taxes on oil firms and a higher proportion of water in the declining output, the bank said in a research report.
Russian oil production may level out from 2010 to 2012 and stall until the middle of the decade, the International Energy Agency said Monday.The IEA, adviser to 26 industrialized consumer nations, said it had based its forecast on a study of the top 20 development projects through to 2012 and an assumed 3 percent annual net decline rate for baseload production.
Air conditioning, gadgets drive up energy use
By now, it should come as no surprise that Americans like their houses big, and they like them comfortable. That is boosting demand for energy providers — especially, as is the case now, when heat waves envelope large swaths of the country.
We'll Need a Good Recession to Avoid Higher Energy Prices
The International Energy Agency released their "Medium-Term Oil Market Report" a short time ago - it looks like we're going to need a good recession to avoid much higher energy prices over the next few years.Thought you might like to hear that - here's why:
Green future demands a radical shift in lifestyles for British
MEAT-FREE menus, battery- operated cars and an end to affordable flights.These are among the radical visions outlined in a report which says Britain could be carbon neutral within 20 years - but only if major steps are taken to change our lifestyles.
Tumble-dryers would disappear and an "armada" of wind turbines would need to be built around the coast to achieve the goal, says the research by scientists from the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT).
But there is scepticism as to whether any of the scenarios suggested in the report are achievable.
Egypt needs renewable energy for growing industry
Egypt, a significant natural gas exporter, needs to develop renewable energy including wind generation if it is to power its growing domestic industries, a senior Egyptian official said on Monday.
Botswana: Coal Production to Increase Ten Fold
The Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Resources has said that coal based projects will increase coal production for the country by more than ten folds by 2012.
Research must continue on biofuel technologies, says panel
Despite recent questions over the feasibility of biofuels, research into future biofuel technologies must go ahead. In order to reap the quickest and most sustainable results, an integrated approach involving all stakeholders should be taken. These were the resounding messages from a panel discussion on future research needs at an international conference on biofuels, which took place in Brussels on 6 July.
30 companies bid for Kuwait refinery
Kuwait state refiner KNPC said on Monday around 30 companies have submitted preliminary bids for Kuwait's planned 615,000 bpd al-Zour refinery, the Middle East's biggest refinery project.
Oil and gas interest bubbling in Yukon
The Yukon's oil and gas industry is suddenly seeing signs of growth, as more companies are showing interest in energy exploration in the territory.
Russia to begin China oil pipeline in 2008
Construction work will begin next year on a much-anticipated pipeline to deliver crude oil directly from Siberia to China, Russia's energy minister said Monday, according to news reports.
Shell, Rosneft agree oil, gas cooperation accord
Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Russian energy group Rosneft have reached a strategic cooperation agreement covering projects in the oil and gas sectors, Rosneft said.
Shtokman offers hope of turning tide for big oil
It may be only a small success but the Shtokman field looks like a victory for international energy companies.
IEA chief urges OPEC to increase output - Le Monde
The head of the International Energy Agency urged OPEC on Tuesday to increase its output immediately, saying there was a risk that stocks of refined oil might not suffice."OPEC knows the situation. The market is not well stocked. It should quickly increase its production," IEA executive director, Claude Mandil, said in an interview with Le Monde daily.
Canada 'to reclaim Arctic waters'
Canada has announced plans for six naval patrol vessels and a deep-water port in the north to assert its claim to territorial waters in the Arctic.Other countries, including the US, say the waters are international territory.
The Coming Warfare of Oil Shortage
If the conflict-ridden and oil-rich Middle East today is crucial to the national interest of superpowers and stability of the global economy, future worldwide dependency on the region for oil will push the international system into new frontiers of conflict and chaos. The region has been a vital source of oil not only for western but also eastern powers. China, Japan, and India have been and will be as much depended on Middle Eastern oil supply as the United States and Western Europe.
End of cheap-food era bad news for poor
The era of cheap food is over. The price of corn (maize) has doubled in a year, and wheat futures are at their highest in a decade. The food price index in India has risen 11 per cent in one year, and in Mexico in January there were riots after the price of corn flour (used in making the staple food of the poor, tortillas) went up fourfold. Even in the developed countries food prices are going up, and they are not going to come down again.Cheap food lasted for only 50 years. Before the Second World War most families in the developed countries spent a third or more of their income on food (as the poor majority in developing countries still do). But after the war a series of radical changes, from mechanization to the Green Revolution, raised agricultural productivity hugely and caused a long, steep fall in the real price of food. For the global middle class, it was the Good Old Days, with food taking only one-tenth of their income.
The source of the crude: Scenes from the wellhead in oil country
First in a three-part series that explores the production - and the costs - of gasoline.
Gresham’s Law and the Indian Coin Shortage
Gresham’s Law is popularly known as, “Bad money drives out good money”. In effect, people will hoard valuable money but will spend (and thus get rid of) money that is relatively more worthless.The case in point that JMR Ben thoughtfully provided was a link to the news.bbc.co.uk report titled “Sharp Practice of Melting Coins“. It seems that inflation in prices in India (due to the Indian central bank creating so damned much money and credit every freaking day, just like all the other stupid central banks of the stupid world) has made the rupee almost valueless, but the little bit of metal in the coins is so valuable that “Millions of Indian coins are being smuggled into neighbouring Bangladesh and turned into razor blades”.
How much more valuable is the metal in the coin? The conversion ratio is a one-rupee coin can be made into seven razor blades, worth 35 rupees!
Fuel shortage brings Zimbabwe to halt
Zimbabwe's economy was approaching paralysis yesterday as petrol stations across the country ran dry.President Robert Mugabe's regime has ordered all retailers to cut fuel prices by 60 per cent, a move that forces them to sell petrol at a loss.
As a result, filling stations across the country have stopped selling altogether and petrol is only available on the black market, at five times the official price. advertisement
Without fuel, the entire economy is steadily shutting down.
For fliers, airline fares are still ascending
According to the trade group Air Transport Assn. of America, the airlines' costs rose 10% in the first quarter of 2007, mostly as a result of a 12.6% increase in the cost of fuel.To compensate, airlines have been raising fares and jamming more passengers on fewer planes.
Panda Ethanol Withdraws Private Offering of Convertible Redeemable Senior Notes
Panda Ethanol Inc. today announced that it has withdrawn its offer to issue $140 million aggregate principal amount of 6 percent convertible, redeemable senior notes. Panda officials felt that current market conditions were not conducive to achieving a per-share valuation which reflects the long-term value of the common stock.
First China-Made Generator Began Operation At Three Gorges Dam
The first China-made 700,000-kw turbine generator began operating at the Three Gorges Dam on Tuesday, Xinhua news agency reports.The No. 26 turbine generator, made by Harbin Electric Machinery Company Ltd, began producing its first kilowatt of electricity at around 11 a.m. after passing a 72-hour trial period.
U.S. Looks to Canada for More Oil - Pipelines Reverse Flow As Imports Slow From Latin America
The future of the U.S. oil industry arrived last year in Cushing, Oklahoma, moving along at three kilometers an hour.It was the first crude from the Albertan oil sands to reach as far south as the giant Cushing pipeline hub, one of the locations where global oil prices are set. To get there, the crude traveled through a pipeline that for decades carried oil in the opposite direction.
Iran needs nuclear energy for its economic survival
Three days ago I returned from Tehran where I witnessed how introduction of petrol rationing resulted in riots which in turn signalled crisis point in Iran’s energy problems which can no longer be denied or ignored. This in the context where billions of dollars of Iran’s oil export revenues is spent importing refined oil from Russia and elsewhere and the government having difficulty expanding oil refining industries because of well placed reluctance in refining for domestic use the oil that is meant to be for export.
Iran Won't Allow Extra Gasoline Buying
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made clear Monday that drivers who use their fuel rations won't be allowed to buy more gasoline at higher prices, calling suggestions to do so a "killer poison" that would worsen inflation.Before rationing started last month, officials had suggested that drivers would be able to purchase extra fuel at a higher price than the low, subsidized cost for rationed fuel, but Ahmadinejad said that won't happen.
Costs Surge for Building Power Plants
General Electric called in reporters yesterday for a briefing on a nuclear plant it is trying to sell in partnership with Hitachi, a plant it said can be built faster than before, operated reliably and have a vanishingly small chance of an accident.But what will it cost? After some hemming and hawing, company executives gave figures by the standard industry metric, dollars per kilowatt of capacity, but in a huge range: $2,000 to $3,000.
“There’s massive inflation in copper and nickel and stainless steel and concrete,” said John Krenecki, president and chief executive of GE Energy. The uncertainty is not just in nuclear plants, he said; coal plant prices are now similarly unstable.
Makansi Warns Of Looming Energy Crisis
Jason Makansi warned the Chattanooga Engineers Club on Monday that decisions must be made soon if America is to avoid a looming energy crisis that he said could cripple the world’s economy.Mr. Makansi said his new book, Lights Out - The Electricity Crisis, The Global Economy, and What it Means to You, presents, in layman terms, a foundation for understanding just how complex power generation and its delivery truly is.
Spitzer on NYRI route: 'It's not going to happen'
Gov. Eliot Spitzer said Sunday he's confident New York Regional Interconnect will not build a power line that will cut through the heart of Upstate New York communities."It's not going to happen," Spitzer said in an exclusive interview after completing the Carbone 5K Training Run on Sunday morning. "I think the folks who are from NYRI need to understand there's overwhelming community opposition. We have an energy crisis, but that's the wrong way to deal with it."
The world has two energy crises but no real answers
The world is, in fact, facing two energy crises. The first is rooted in scarcity and traditional power politics. It involves the struggle by the world’s largest and most energy-hungry economies to get hold of the natural resources they need. Just yesterday the International Energy Agency warned that the world oil market would be “extremely tight” over the next five years. Demands from China and other emerging economies are rising. But Mary Kaldor – co-author of a new book called Oil Wars (Pluto) – points out the struggle to find new oil is a familiar sort of conflict, reminiscent of the 19th century “great game” or earlier imperial clashes.The second energy crisis is new. It is driven by climate change. It demands international co-operation rather than competition. While the first crisis leads politicians and businessmen to search out ever more oil and gas, the second demands that they radically reduce their economies’ dependence on hydrocarbons.
U.K. Parliament Members Form `Peak Oil' Group to Study Reserves
The U.K. parliament formed a group to study peak oil, the theory that world oil production is approaching its zenith, as British lawmakers face up to the country's future as an energy importer....It aims to collate predictions for when production may peak and consider the implications for energy policy, rather than push a particular view, said the group's chairman, John Hemming, a Liberal Democrat MP for Birmingham Yardley, central England.
In 2002 oil was $20 per barrel. In 2004, $50 per barrel. Now it is $72+ per barrel and demand is still increasing at 2% per year (which exceeds growth in supply). The world is adjusting to a higher cost of energy, but it is functioning like a global tax, which is beginning to bite into US consumers.In the future, oil will be even more critical to global prosperity, as it will be more and more coveted by every nation on earth, both sellers and buyers. The arrival of Peak Oil will likely be the most critical and defining event of the 21st century. Energy and other tangible assets will form the mirror opposite of the global currency glut, as the particularly debased currencies become less and less coveted, as time goes by.
Norway: Energy Minister admits knowledge of energy crisis
Oil and Energy Minister Odd Roger Enoksen admits that the authorities were aware of the approaching energy crisis, and that too little has been done to prepare for it.
Head of Hurricane Center Replaced - Inspectors Perceived 'Anxiety and Disruption' at the Agency
The embattled director of the National Hurricane Center was replaced here today after a brief but turbulent tenure in which he publicly criticized his bosses and then lost the support of much of his staff.
Buenos Aires has first snow since 1918
A government minister, Alberto Fernández, called on people to conserve energy and said gas exports to Chile would be reduced while the cold weather continued, La Nación newspaper reported.
China's energy and pollution woes need urgent attention: Wen
China's Premier Wen Jiabao has reiterated that China needs to urgently face the challenges of climate change by curtailing its polluting inefficiencies, a government statement said Tuesday."Cutting energy consumption and pollutant emissions and dealing with climate change are urgent, critically important tasks," Wen said in remarks posted on the central government's website.
Australia fights jet-flight guilt over global warming
Australia's tourism authorities Tuesday launched a campaign to fight claims that long-distance air travel is a major cause of global warming.With long-distance flights virtually the only way of reaching "Down Under", guilt over climate change is seen as a threat to the country's 75 billion dollar (62.7 billion US) tourism industry.
Cows that burp less seen helping in climate fight
Using modern plant-breeding methods to find new diets for cows that make them belch less is a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, scientists said on Monday.
Crude surges as producers slash discounts
The actual cost of crude oil has surged to a record high through a combination of world benchmarks rising and a sharp reduction in the discounts that large producers, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran or Mexico, are offering to refineries.The latest in a series of cuts to discounts – known as "differentials" in industry jargon – has cut the most important markdowns to the lowest level since 2004.
The reduction has gone largely undetected outside the refinery industry because financial markets pay more attention to the price of the oil futures traded in London and New York, where prices have come within $2.50 of record highs. The reduced discounts reflect a tighter oil market after two cuts in production by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in the past year and its recent rejection of calls from industrialised nations to increase supplies.
If it smells like peak oil, it probably is
Demand for oil products -- primarily transportation fuels -- is growing fast. You can blame all those developing countries whose populations are approaching the critical $3,000 per capita GDP level -- that magic moment when, according to the IEA, "a middle class usually emerges, eager to purchase cars, fly in aeroplanes, install air-conditioners and, more generally, use energy-consuming appliances." Don't blame a lack of refinery capacity -- the IEA says investment in refinery upgrades is proceeding apace, and is not likely to be a problem in the near future. But overall, supply of the raw product -- oil and gas -- is having a harder and harder time keeping up with demand.This would seem to be the definition of a world approaching "peak oil" -- that moment when supply stops growing and begins to decline, while demand continues to chug along. But it is not until Page 30 of the IEA's very detailed 82-page report that those all important words are even mentioned. Here are some excerpts from the critical section...
IEA wakes up and smells the Peak Oil
That Polyanna of energy price prediction, the International Energy Agency (IEA), issued a new report today which, while it still does not acknowledge peak oil, predicts a supply crunch in the 2010-12 time range.
Dear oil is here to stay, so let's explore what that means
The latest report from the International Energy Agency makes scary reading. You don't have to be a "peak oil" doom-monger to believe the world faces an energy crunch. Investors, and everyone else for that matter, need to think through the implications of a significantly higher oil price.
Oil Experts: ‘Extremely Tight in 5 Years’
When scientists say oil production could peak soon, the reports are met with skepticism, especially in industry. When economists talk, industry pays more attention. That makes Monday’s forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA) significant.
Plains states waive trucking rules
Minnesota and South Dakota have waived hours-of-service restrictions for fuel haulers, while Kansas has waived restrictions because of flooding.
Play peak oil before you live it
On April 30, 2007, an oil crisis shook the world. Supply chains were interrupted, and in the ensuing weeks the price of gas pushed higher and higher, peaking around $7 per gallon. The American economy sputtered to a halt as shortages spread -- Detroit's car factories cited lack of demand and shut down for the duration, trucking fleets scrambled for fuel to move their cargo, supermarkets jacked up their prices, and commuters bitched and moaned and grudgingly changed their lifestyles. Looting broke out, along with the occasional riot.A month later, good news began to emerge. When gas hit $7 per gallon, America didn't disintegrate into chaos with warring clans jealously guarding their oil tanks. No further Middle Eastern countries were invaded, although there was a surreptitious scuffle in the oil fields of Alberta, Canada. The U.S. government hastily invested in public transit and alternative energy, and the grumbling populace began making lifestyle changes. People carpooled and bought bikes. They moved out of the exurbs. They planted gardens in their backyards, and religiously visited their local farmers markets.
10% Reduction in US Oil Use in 10 to 12 Years
A cut down (and better I think) version on ASPO-USA.
http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=168&It...
It was mentioned yesterday down thread.
Several things left unsaid.
I have come to the conclusion that a crash Electrification of Transportation program can accommodate a -1.5% annual decline in available oil (in addition to other measures that are their own wedges). Accommodating a -2% annual decline is certainly within the realm of possibility. And -2.5% on my optimistic days.
Electrification of Transportation alone cannot deal with -3.5% annual decline in available oil for a decade or more.
Rail has "elasticity of supply" when our economic system is stressed by lack of oil.
I have come to the conclusion that bicycling has the greatest elasticity of supply and is an essential part of the solution.
OTOH, improved fleet fuel economy is absolutely essential (NO MORE HUMMERS !) but is limited in how fast it can be implemented (especially if we do not waive safety & pollution requirements) and it has VERY limited elasticity of supply in the short and even medium term.
Best Hopes for Electrification of Transportation,
Alan
Alan-- Please comment again (you have posted this info before, I know)
Suppose intra-city and inter-city passenger rail were suddenly electrified, and people started using existing electric car technology-- plug into the grid for battery charge, maybe a backup small gasoline engine-- for as much of their individual travel.
Would that overstress the grid? Would it increase or decrease carbon dioxide generation? Would it help or harm, or would it make any overall difference? Also, what would it take to electrify Greyhound busses? Could they be designed to plug into the grid for charge?
Thanks
DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory researched that and came up with these results:
Rail and bus travel constitutes a fraction of one percent of vehicle miles driven in the U.S., so complete electrification of rail and bus alone would present no difficulty for the U.S. grid.
Assuming the current mix of electricity generating plants and fuels, electrification of the U.S. light vehicle fleet would reduce greenhouse gas emissions 27%, VOCs by 93%, CO by 98% and NOx by 31%. All emissions in urban areas would be improved. However, in rural areas where coal generating plants are located, particulates would increase by 18% and SOx would increase by 125%.
Plug-in hybrid buses are technically feasible and have been rolled out in a number of applications such as school buses.
Electrifying the current level of public transit would be nice, but rather inconsequential. To adapt to declining oil supply we need a massive shift from single-occupancy motor vehicles to other forms of transport, and there are many obstacles to achieving that, including:
* electricity for such greatly expanded service
* money and energy for the manufacturing of such vehicles
* the time it takes to do it even if resources are available
* social and political obstacles
That's all very true. We have the electricity to make the shift, but it's available at night. So it's actually electricity storage that is an obstacle.
Rail uses a small fraction of U.S. energy -- a total of 659 trillion BTU, or 0.66 % of U.S. energy consumption (see Table 2.4).
About 10% of all U.S. rail is electrified, which means the other 90 percent can make the 250%-300% efficiency gains from electrification that Alan mentions. At best, present rail energy use could be reduced to 264 trillion BTU, or 0.26% of U.S. energy consumption.
[EDIT] (659 * 0.1) + ((659 * 0.9) / 3) = 264
The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory report says we can add 3.1 quads of (mostly) nighttime load to the existing grid. That means we could increase the energy consumption of rail by something like 900% using existing grid capacity (assuming use of a storage scheme like pumped hydro which has a 78% efficiency ratio in the U.S.).
[EDIT] Increasing the energy consumption of rail by 900%, combined with a 200%-300% efficiency gain from electrification, would enable a 18-27 fold increase in the work accomplished by rail, using existing grid capacity.
Unfortunately, the vast majority of that electrical generation not "used" at night is natural gas fired; some of it inefficient single cycle NG turbines.
We do not have the NG to fire these plants 17 or 20 hours/day.
The demands placed by switching 90% of current inter-city truck ton-miles on electrified rail, plus as much Urban Rail as we could build and finish in a half dozen years equal about one or two years growth in electrical demand. A recession plus higher prices could free up that much and more.
However EVs much larger and with greater ranges than GEMs http://www.gemcar.com would pose a problem. I wonder if NG fuel cars might not be a better choice for several reasons for at least a decade.
One reason is not to crash the electrical grid for other purposes than recharging EVs. A decade of wind turbine + HV DC lines + pumped storage construction could satisfy the EV demand (I think) with minimal NG use by the grid.
I have a larger picture in mind, but which path to take "depends" on several variables.
In all cases, installing tankless NG hot water heaters to replace older NG water heaters and more insulation are VERY GOOD things.
Best Hopes,
Alan
I'm more and more suspicious of any proposal that depends on switching where switching involves much in the way of rebuilding. Because if it takes something like 25 barrels of oil to build a prius and then maybe a barrel a month to run it the barrels to convert will themselves be too much. All of society will be trying to invest oil now to reduce future demand for oil. [I know because I'm doing that personally.]
It won't be only one sector of society, eg automobiles, but it will be the grid, food, industry - all at the same time. The recognition of peak oil is going to drive any entity willing to prepare into a spend-it-while-you-have-it mode. Sort of a pre-hurricane rush to the store.
Duct tape!
cfm in Gray, ME
The flaw in many of these reports is that they report energy usage as oil consumption when in fact most of the steps either can or even already are not done in oil. What such reports should honestly say is barrels of oil equivalent in energy, but they do not.
For example, there is a large myth on this website that most mining can only be done with fossil fueled machinery. This is simply not true as almost all underground mining is done electrically which means that above ground mining could be if necessary. And the manufacture of an automobile in the assembly line is very electrically oriented, not fossil fuel oriented.
This is precisely why we could change how we live. Fossil fuels are not how many people portray them. We have many other energy sources that are close enough in cost that we could use those instead. The problem is not can we do this but rather will we do this?
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
vtpeacenik,
Or we could just encourage carpooling and vanpooling by barring one driver cars on the interstates, and refusing them a parking place in inner cities. Make the sale of new gasoline engines illegal, diesel and hybrids only. Stop road construction and repairs, instead put light rail on the right-of ways, tax internal combustion engine cars at $5,000 each as a license plate fee-call it an energy security tax.
The obstacles are the car companies and big oil, and the whores at the car companies could be persuaded by the idea of all the new diesel and electric cars.
Our country just lacks the political will because of the corruption from corporations.
Bob Ebersole
You don't need to go so far as call it "corruption". It's simply corporations protecting their own interests. After all, they're legally bound to provide maximum profits to shareholders and all that. In principle, there's nothing wrong with this, providing there are sufficient corporations of equal power and influence all excising their own differing agendas.
Unfortunately certain corporations have become far too big and powerful, argubly more powerful than governments, which are at least democratically elected.
wizofaus my Aussie friend,
Maybe your government was democraticially elected, but ours was appointed by the Supreme Court. The New York Times-Miami Herald recount in 2000 showed that Gore won Florida, and hence the election. In 2004 the exit poll didn't agree with the results in a couple of states with Diboll computerised voting. Kerry won that one.
All corporate contributions should be illegal. They are not persons. And the disgusting amounts of money raised for each of the US presidential candidates should make anyone question who is buying what. I see the broadcast airwaves as public property, and the electronic media should be required to give back time to the candidates.
I guess I'm just old fashioned, thinking votes should be counted honestly,and that media have a civic duty in a Democratic society.
Bob Ebersole
Still, if 70% of the population were unhappy about Bush as president at around election time, he wouldn't be there.
But if 70% of the population are unhappy about the way oil companies manipulate or otherwise influence governments and corporations into decisions that are ultimately deterimental to society as a whole, there's relatively little they can do about it. Yes, in principle, they can stop buying oil. But that's hardly a fair comparison with being able to tick a different box on the ballot paper.
"In principle, there's nothing wrong with this, providing there are sufficient corporations of equal power and influence all excising their own differing agendas."
Ah, the idealistic view. How quaint.
Pity we don't live in that world. And even if we did I still would argue that the corporate structure would have an overall negative impact on society. As it happens though, those differing agendas are things like:
A) It's your right to have the freedom to drive wherever and whenever you like in the biggest SUV around, even if it is just to take little Molly to her friend's house, one block down the road.
B) Don't worry if you're getting fat from a poor diet and the refusal to even walk one block down the road, it's not your fault, your sick and we've got this appetite supressing pill that'll do the trick.
C) Be eco-friendly like us, recycle those cans and plastic bottles - it saves energy and it saves the environment - then come in and check out our latest HD 50 inch screen!
D) Housing bubble? What housing bubble? We can finance your next purchase for 5.75% with zero deposit!!
E) Your kid is high from eating processed sugars and preservatives, never mind take a Ritalin.
Oh, and did someone say "lobbying"?
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
I agree entirely. There is more than ample proof that a system of competing corporations on its own is not likely to provide what society as a whole needs.
But in principle, it's possible, if we had more John Mackeys in the world:
http://www.reason.com/news/show/32239.html
In principle, anything is possible, including: The road to Hell is paved with good intentions.
Which pretty well sums up our principal 'in principle' problem.
If you know what I mean.
Mark Twain did: “What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know, it's what we know for sure that just ain't so.”
What's interesting is that Mackey sincerely believes his flavour of "ethical capitalism" will win in the end, because profits-first capitalism is not competitive in the long-run. I hope he's right, but I suspect he has a rather more optimistic view of human nature than I do (Note: TOD is about the only place I've ever been accused of excessive optimism. Indeed I used to think of myself as a dyed-in-the-wool pessimist.)
In principle, I like to agree with you and like to hope too for what's right, but what I see actually happening reminds me not to. Call it the precautionary principle. ;-)
Frankly, I'm worried that we won't even be able to maintain the grid at current capacity in the post-carbon age, let alone expand it.
Electrifying current commuter trains would not do much. For example, let's suppose you electrified the Chicago METRA's Northwest line. It sees 64 commuter trains per day, the maximum size is 10 cars per train, shorter in off peak, suppose each railcar weighs 100 tons. That's a maximum of 64,000 ton-miles per mile you would be powering by electricity each day.
Put that same mile of wire above some of the more heavily traveled freight lines, such as those hauling coal out of the Powder River Basin, they often see 37 100+ car unit trains of around 12-15 thousand tons each, or 444,000 ton miles per day (plus another fourth or so for the empties moving back) per mile electrified.
Gallons of diesel saved per dollar of investment in overhead wire (or gallons of diesel saved per pound of copper overhead wire) would be much greater on freight lines.
(Yes, there are some other factors involved, like making the passenger service faster with better acceleration, etc., but this is just a crude analysis)
Better yet, just increase the average MPG on all light vehicles by 5 mpg, and you'll save a lot more gallons
Yes, the Powder River coal lines (3 and 4 tracks BTW) are low hanging fruit.
http://www.trains.com/ctr/objects/images/railroad_electrification_1970s....
But that does NOT mean electrifying the Chicago commuter rail lines is not worth doing.
Figure 10% shorter trip times (rule of thumb), means more riders. Shorter trip times also means existing rolling stock can carry more people (needed when gasoline hits $6, then $10/gallon and then ... ?)
Electric locos also last longer, don't waste time refueling or warming up on a cold morning, cost less to run (whats to break ?) and the number of trains that can be run on an electric rail line is greater than on the same line with diesel locos.
It is NOT an "either/or" regarding increased auto fleet gas mileage. It will be the MAXIMUM for both !
Best Hopes for the WILL to do something !
Alan
"
The perverse thought occurs to me that if this coal is being burned for electrical generation, some of which is going to drive this newly electrified train, why not burn it directly in coal-fired steam engines. Dirty as hell but probably no dirtier than your typical coal-fired power plant. Especially if you consider what nifty new coal-fired steam engine technology we could come up with.....
[/ end perverse fantasy]
I have seen the construction of 24 streetcars for the Canal Line in the New Orleans 1892 Carrollton Barn.
The trucks came from Brookville Equipment in Brookville PA, the a/c units (modified bus units) from the Czech Republic (Carrier compressors from the USA). All else within 100 miles.
End caps (complex curves) from local boat building company. Local Iron Works companies made body sections that were assembled in the barn. Mahogany seats built by local furniture company. Mahogany trim and many "bits & pieces" made by transit workmen, as well as final assembly and painting. Outside workmen came in and did the wiring and controls.
NOT EASY ! But it CAN be done !
Best Hopes for the WILL to do it,
Alan
I will quote my article
More later when I have time.
Best Hopes for Trading 20 BTUs of diesel for 1 BTU of electricity,
Alan
There is plenty of hope for a better world after Peak Oil. Political and financial will are not presently in view -- but that can change pretty fast
Alan:
Here is a thought for you:
Since we all know that no single thing (even EOT) is going to close the gap by itself, how about adapting the "Stabilization Wedges" idea developed by S. Pacala and R. Socolow for greenhouse gas reduction, and applying it to the future energy "gap"?
http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/stabwedge.htm
They would be different wedges, of course. Some overlap, but some of the wedges that reduce carbon do nothing for energy; they might be fine things to do in the interests of combatting global warming, but they would be useless for our purposes. We would also need to have much more aggressive energy efficiency and renewable powerup options than the above authors have in their system (which is relatively conservative and pessimistic about the extent to which energy efficiency and renewables can be developed in the short run).
While the "stabilization wedge" model is interesting, the main thing I dislike about it is configuring each strategy to same "size". In reality, different strategies have different dimensions of impact when fully deployed.
Maybe a better approach would be to use a pie metaphor. We come up with our best estimate of the projected annual rate of decline in total energy supplies from present levels that we need to make up to sustain society. Each strategy (like EOT) would be a slice of the pie. Different strategies might be different sized slices. The trick is to come up with a mix that adds up to 100% and fills the pie. Add estimated cost data, and you then have a tool to understand tradeoffs and to begin to build consensus around public policies.
I think this is the one really good thing about the Stabilization Wedges model. Say you really are opposed to nukes. Fine, but if you are not going to include that red-colored wedge, then you need to identify what other wedge you are going to use instead -- an other wedge among the ones left AFTER you have alread picked your initial six. It won't do to just blow off nukes with a vague claim that there are "other, better" strategies that can replace it. The same thing applies to energy; people say they don't want this or can't do that, but when they fill the circle with what they can accept and see that a big gap still remains that needs to be filled and the number of strategies left unused on the table, then perhaps they can start getting serious about making hard choices.
Wish I could develop this myself, but I just don't have the time. I hope someone can take this idea and run with it.
I have thought about this but:
1) It takes a lot of work to develop each wedge
2) I cannot quantify many wedges (bicycling for transportation, what are the possible growth rates ? What is the maximum ?)
3) What can be quantified is subject to so MANY variables (oil prices, economic activity, changes in urban form, how fast can we build EOT in the real world ?)
As to the last question, I would point to the overproduction of WW II. We built many more planes than thought possible in 1941 for example.
False numbers and accuracy do not help the debate IMHO.
I thought long and hard about my 10% claim. I think that CAN be done as a lower limit (I gave myself two years wiggle room, i.e. 10 to 12 years) and more than 10% can be done.
But I, at least, cannot quantify the upper limit.
Best Hopes for Hand Waving,
Alan
One way that the motor vehicle fleet could adapt quickly is throught the use of retrofits. A high-efficiency continuously variable transmission alone has been shown to improve the gas mileage of an SUV by nearly 20%. Regenerative braking could also be done as an aftermarket add-on, and might yield an even greater benefit in urban driving. Of course, that would not be sufficient for the long term problem, but it would greatly ease the pain of the early decline without replacing the whole vehicle fleet.
Mark Folsom
I appreciate Alan’s posts and have learnt much from them.
Considering fossil fuels as a whole, not just ‘oil’ and transport, the goal of 10% fossil energy use reduction in US use in 10 to 12 years is absurd.
That goal could be accomplished in a few weeks, with far more achieved in 6 months.
Electricity. New light bulbs, turn off the lights at night. That includes the sparkling Jesus and Mary on the lawn at Xmas. No lit spaces without ppl in them carrying out activity. Easy..
Transport by truck. Centralize and rationalize. There is a huge amount to be done there, no empty trips, or as little as poss. Computers and statisticians are *useful.* Easy...
Industry and manufacturing, savings could be tremendous, varies by type. Too complex to go into right here.
Transport of ppl. Various car pooling and official hitch hiking schemes, bike lanes, rehabilitate walking, etc.
Cars. Get rid of the clunky gaz guzzlers immediately, off the road, by law, this too is not difficult...
Buildings. Well everyone here knows about that. Federal directives and laws. Air conditioning should be cut, that is, forbidden, wherever possible. Heating turned down 3 degrees, and no heating of unoccupied spaces.
Food waste. In Britain, a third of the food bought is thrown out. Telegraph, for ex.
Agriculture. Fill it in.
Transport by boat, barge. Encourage, rehabilitate.
Etc.
tot it up - what, 20% savings? In a few weeks? (for those measures that could be implemented quickly..)
Can’t happen.
All imply ‘communistic’, ‘socialistic’ measures; or cooperation for the common good, or Gvmt. crack down in various ways, ppl obeying strictures that they refuse to even consider in any way. The American, -Western-, way of life stipulates that rapine is legitimate, greed, growth, and waste, are fabulous and glitzy, oh not not just that, they are a right, GDP must rise, others owe us a living.
Cooperation for the common good? Hey, what an idea. Why didn't I think of it- Commie plot, that's why.
Then I think back on WWll, Imagine, no cars for us ordinary folk for an entire duration. Instead, Detroit made bombers, tanks, guns and other very hard ware.
And we accepted it without any gripes at all. Just think what real leadership could do now with the stuff that goes into making those damn cars for 4 years. Pave the desert with solar thermal power, make all the windmills and pumped storage we can use, Electrify transport, make people happy doing good work.
Maybe even learn how to and want to do less with less.
Nobody talks about what is a proven and obvious fact- people who are on a crusade toward a worthy common goal with good leadership, FEEL GOOD ABOUT THEMSELVES. Hard work and sacrifice can make you happy and fulfilled. Being greedy, fat, lazy and dumb does not. God! who doesn't know that?
(Ah, for the good old days of dragging bombs around the deck of an aircraft carrier, feeling good, heroic, irresistible to females, and hungry for icecream.)
So now we have this tremendous opportunity to do some hard work and make some sacrifices, be heroes and feel good, and what are we doing?- sitting around moaning about how awful things are gonna be when we get to where we are going.
Pitiful!