DrumBeat: July 9, 2007

Have we reached the energy tipping point?

So is a critical mass building among Americans and legislators for changes in U.S. energy policy? Or are these efforts simply blips on the radar as Americans continue to drive SUVs and Hummers?

A recent analysis by the Gallup Poll showed energy as Americans' fourth most-important priority for Washington, below Iraq, terrorism and national security, and the economy.

California to build 'world's largest' solar farm

The 80-megawatt farm is to occupy as much as 640 acres and upon completion in 2011 will be 17 times the size of the largest U.S. solar farm, said Cleantech America LLC, a privately held 2-year-old company.


Oil prices reach 11-month high

NEW YORK - Oil prices surpassed $76 a barrel Monday to reach their highest level in nearly a year after a global energy watchdog warned of a looming oil and natural gas supply shortage.

August Brent crude rose 65 cents to $76.27 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London, its highest point since August 2006.


Pennsylvania awakes to partial state shutdown

The state museums didn't open Monday. State parks were closed to visitors at the height of the summer tourism season, and many state services were idle because of a government shutdown that kept about 24,000 workers off the job.

Gov. Ed Rendell shut down the Pennsylvania government late Sunday over a budget stalemate with the Legislature that partly hinges on his energy plan for the state.


Global warring: New study suggests climate change could be the root of armed conflicts

Climate change, and the resulting shortage of ecological resources, could be to blame for armed conflicts in the future, according to David Zhang from the University of Hong Kong and colleagues. Their research, which highlights how temperature fluctuations and reduced agricultural production explain warfare frequency in eastern China in the past, has been published online in Springer’s journal Human Ecology.


Big Blue's green machine

IBM is going green in more ways than one. The tech giant said earlier this year that it would commit $1 billion annually to develop more energy efficient data centers.

As part of that "Big Green" initiative, the company's venture arm is on the look out for the next clean tech start-ups.


Manhattan: Bike-Sharing Plan

A planning group has begun a test project to see whether New York would be suitable for a bicycle sharing system common in European cities. The five-day project, started yesterday and sponsored by the Forum for Urban Design, makes 20 bicycles free for a half-hour ride after users provide credit card information to ensure their return, said David Haskell, the group’s executive director. The bikes have been lined up at a SoHo gallery called the Storefront for Art and Architecture.


OPEC has little power to ease oil prices - Algeria

Algeria's Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil said on Monday there was "not much" OPEC could do to bring down high oil prices as global crude oil stocks were already sufficient.

"There is plenty of stocks. It's a problem with capacity and refining," Khelil told Reuters ahead of a gas pipeline conference in Brussels.


Iraq minister: 140,000 Turkey troops on border

Turkey has massed 140,000 soldiers on its border with northern Iraq but so far there have been no violations, Iraq's foreign minister said Monday.

Hoshyar Zebari's comments came amid calls by Turkey's military for the government to give it the green light to carry out military operations in northern Iraqi against the rebel Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK.


Coffeyville assesses damage from flooding and oil spill

The oil that spilled from the Coffeyville Resources refinery coated houses and lawns in a slimy, smelly goo. It prompted a class-action lawsuit in federal court against Coffeyville Resources, said Andrew Hutton, a Wichita lawyer involved in the litigation.

He said that the flood was predictable and that the refinery should have been shut down sooner.


North Dakota Governor Extends Hours Of Service Waiver For Delivery Drivers To July 19

Gov. John Hoeven has issued an executive order extending service hours for commercial truck drivers providing gas stations with fuel until July 19, 2007. The measure extends an earlier executive order due to expire on July 7.

...Reduced supplies owing to a slow down at a major petroleum refinery in Minnesota, along with a weather-related stoppage at a second refinery in Kansas, have combined with increased fuel demand to create a potential gasoline shortage in North Dakota and regionally.


Russia announces higher oil exports

Russia's oil exports amounted to 101.562m tonnes in January-May 2007, which is nearly 8 percent more than in the same period a year earlier, the Russian Federal Customs Service reported today. Meanwhile, oil exports grew 4.9 percent to $40.819bn in money terms.


Queues resurface as Zimbabwe runs out of fuel

Long fuel queues have resurfaced in Zimbabwe as filling stations ran out of petrol following a government directive to reduce prices by up to 60 percent, APA observed here.

Only few filling stations in the capital, Harare, had fuel Sunday, resulting in long queues by desperate motorists.


China oil demand seen rising to 9.96 mln bpd by 2012 from 7.59 mln this yr - IEA

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expects China's oil demand this year to remain flat compared to its previous forecast at 7.59 mln barrels per day (bpd), before rising to 8.05 mln in 2008 and further to 9.96 mln bpd in 2012.


China to encourage loans for energy-efficient companies

China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer, will limit loans for industries that are heavy users of energy to reduce waste and improve environmental protection.


Energy productivity the profitable path to sustainable growth

As global energy consumption soars, and as greenhouse gas emissions grow, the world needs to find realistic ways to cut energy waste and to use our limited resources more wisely. New research indicates that practical investments in energy productivity - the amount of energy required to achieve a given level of economic output - can help the world continue its economic growth and ensure a sustainable energy future. Better still, the research indicates that these investments have a quick economic payoff, producing savings that cover the initial costs and provide an annual rate of return above 10 per cent.


Arab countries urge solar future

Arab energy ministers and some EU politicians attending a high-level conference in this desert oasis town flanked by the ruins of a vast Roman city, announced support for a revolutionary renewable energy electricity supply system proposed by Germany to link both areas.


'Carbon credit cards' and 'carbon market' on agenda

A "zero carbon" Britain could be achieved by 2027 if a range of measures were brought in by a government with "strong political leadership", scientists said today.


US leads search for climate solutions

The most striking thing about the Miasole solar cell production plant in San Jose is how much of it is empty.

Probably less than a fifth of the huge production floor is occupied by machines.

But if Miasole's plan comes together, within a couple of years it will house a production line turning out vast rolls of photovoltaic cells, that some believe could help put solar power on a par with coal, gas or oil.


U.K.: Railways set for a hi-tech revolution

A 30-year plan to transform rail travel with longer trains that can run closer together using biofuels and even hydrogen power will be set out by the government this month.


Could jatropha be a biofuel panacea?

The wild jatropha bush - spread across the world from Central America by Portuguese settlers in the 16th century - is now being seen as one solution to the world's desperate search for new sources of energy.

Energy giant BP has just announced it is investing almost £32m in a jatropha joint venture with UK biofuels firm D1 Oils.


Brammo Launches First Production Battery-Electric Motorcycle

Brammo Motorsports announced the Enertia, the world’s first production zero-emissions battery-powered plug-in electric motorcycle.


Volkswagen continues driving towards a green future

The environment is a hot topic today. With more drivers going green and car makers currently focusing on producing environment-friendly cars that will deliver less pollution for the environment, Volkswagen is placing full efforts on reducing emissions and fuel consumption in its models as well as pioneering the recyclability process.


Kuwaiti MPs want size of oil reserves disclosed

Several Kuwaiti deputies have threatened not to approve this year's national budget if the government fails to disclose the size of its oil reserves, a newspaper reported on Monday.

..."We cannot make the correct future plans without knowing the size of the reserves... so this should be made clear to parliamentarians before the session to pass the state budget," Alam Alyawm newspaper quoted deputy Ahmad Lari as saying.


Gazprom aims to be first trillion dollar firm

Giant Russian energy firm Gazprom wants to be the world's first firm with a stock market value of a US$1 trillion (HK$7.8 trillion), its deputy chief executive told the Sunday Times.


U.K.: Regulator hints at increase in powers

Regulator Ofgem may be given new powers to tackle Britain's long-term gas and electricity needs and counter the short-termist investment strategies of companies that have been blamed for the UK's energy crisis.


Expert to UN: Politics an obstacle to global warming - Oppenheimer questions U.S.'s preparedness for natural disasters

Michael Oppenheimer, professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University, said at a United Nations press briefing last month that with rising sea levels, drought or excess precipitation and stronger hurricanes, climate change is no longer a dubious issue. The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, of which Oppenheimer was an author, declared that global warming is "unequivocal" and that human activity has played a significant role in these changes.


Blueprint for the New American Feudal State

Of course, in the brave new world envisioned by the decadent criminal elite, mere terrorism—raving jihadists, we are told ad nauseam, who want to dirty nuke our cities because they hate our freedom to shop—will pale in comparison to the dire scenarios of melting ice caps, flooded coastal cities, aberrant weather patterns, a Katrina catastrophe or worse every other week, and wars and rumors of wars based on the prospect of diminishing resources, including “peak oil,” all of it designed to prepare us for a dystopian future of slave labor down on the transnational corporate plantation.


Will We Have Too Much Generation for Renewables?

"When you feed your kid six brownies before dinner, you can't expect him to eat the salad, no matter how good it is." So says Leslie Glustrom, a long term renewable energy advocate. This is her metaphor for why Xcel Energy has been reluctant to pursue Demand Side Management (DSM) and renewable energy projects in Colorado as they have been in Minnesota. Because Xcel is currently constructing 500 MW of new coal-fired generation, and they are also interested in a 300-350 MW IGCC plant by 2013, they may have little demand for new renewable generation.


'Discovery!' is a little jewel

Admirers of Wallace Stegner, a literary icon to numerous Utahns and other Westerners, will be happy to see "Discovery!" a hidden manuscript now published by Selwa Press. (There will be a hardcover, fully annotated edition in September.)

Stegner is easily one of America's great novelists and historians. I had the pleasure of attending a history workshop he taught one summer when I was a University of Utah graduate student. He was as compelling and charismatic in person as he continues to be in print — a master of language but in a self-effacing, eloquent way.

But who knew that Stegner was the first to tell the story of how Saudis started sending oil to the West? This one got buried. In 1955, Stegner, then a lesser known Stanford University professor of creative writing, was asked to write a history of the Arabian American Oil Company (ARAMCO).


IEA sees oil supply crunch looming

World oil demand will rise faster than expected to 2012 while production lags, leading to a supply crunch, the International Energy Agency said on Monday.

In its Medium-Term Oil Market Report, the adviser to 26 industrialized countries said demand will rise by an average 2.2 percent a year between 2007 and 2012, up from a previous medium-term forecast of 2 percent.


Michael J. Economides: Oil Towards $75, Again

There is an “economic” side of oil prices, a real one and a silly one.

The economic side which does not work in an increasingly hostile and, at least partially, monopolistic environment, suggests that the “equilibrium” price of oil should be about $40. This is now purely academic and my students, associates and I have been calculating this for a while. This price could be good if the world oil business were run by all the rules of economics in a perfect competition. It would be the “break even” number, the price at which an honest profit could be made.


Oil's Not Well

At a national average of $3 a gallon, it's clear that fewer Americans are complaining about the cost of filling up because we're starting to get used to it. Just like $4 lattes, half-million dollar Manhattan studio apartments and $30 restaurant entrees, the sticker-shock has worn off - at least for now.

But that could change by late summer, with prices at the pump pushing closer to the $4 a gallon level - especially if current trends in the crude market accelerate. At more than $72 a barrel, crude prices are already up more than 40 percent from their lows earlier this year, and within striking distance of their 2005 post-Katrina high of $78.

All this, and we haven't even seen the first major hurricane of the season.


An investment policy

A public policy paper entitled "A Green Paper on the T&T Investment Policy" by the Ministry of Trade and Industry has been put out for public comment. The paper says and I quote: "...oil and gas resources are finite. Consequently the critical issue in respect of sustainable economic development becomes how to increase GDP when oil and gas productions begin to decrease. The solution lies in the sustainable development of the non-energy sector and as a pre-requisite the attraction of investment into this sector."


Whose bombs?

Bush administration officials have long been aware of the impending oil crisis. Indeed, it was a key factor in Vice President Dick Cheney’s formulation of the strategy in Iraq only five months prior to 9/11. Reports like that of BP are designed to misinform, steering public attention away from the real cause of the problem.


Energy Investors Take Note: The Second Law of Thermodynamics Still Applies

With the recent rise in interest in alternative energy technologies and other breakthrough clean technologies has come the inevitable rise in questionable business ideas promising unbelievable benefits: "free" energy, "free" electricity, etc. Let's just call these the "Huh" companies -- they typically invite people to sign up to be an early customer for free (just, hey, you will need to write a big deposit check, but you know, you'll get that back, no worries...), so what's not to like?


2 more foreigners kidnapped in Nigeria

Gunmen attacked an oil facility in restive southern Nigeria overnight and took two foreigners hostage, private security contractors said Monday.


Libya to open up gas fields to foreigners

Libya on Sunday invited international tenders for exploration of its onshore and offshore gas fields covering an area almost the size of Scotland.


Expert says rising sea levels pose threat to rice

Rising sea levels triggered by climate change pose an "ominous" threat to some of the world's most productive rice-growing areas, the International Rice Research Institute has warned.


Global warming: Lessons of history help the future

Experts pondering how to tackle the threat are delving into history, exploring how civilisations of the past, facing similar perils, either coped or were wiped out.

US academic Jared Diamond, author of "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed," says "ecocide" -- ecological suicide -- plays a greatly under-estimated role in the fall of societies.


Earth underwhelmed by environment pop extravaganza

U.S. and British media were generally underwhelmed on Sunday by Live Earth, the mega-concert organized by former U.S. vice president and green campaigner Al Gore, which, though built on the model of Live Aid and Live 8, created a less positive buzz.

A new guest post by HeIsSoFly has been published at TOD:Canada.

7-7-7: The Launch of Global Warming Inc.

Back to Live Earth. The key buzz word in all of it is raising "awareness". But awareness of what, exactly? That there is a problem in 2050, or that there is one today? Though many people brush it off, that is a crucial difference. If the problem is immediate, 2050 is pretty much a meaningless date. Raising awareness of a problem to take place in 43 years is useless, and even damaging, since it diverts attention from the real issue: today's problems. Besides, how big is the problem? Do we know? Is there some slight discomfort on the horizon, or will 500 million people die? Which of the two are the Live Earth crowds "aware" of the day after the party? Is just any awareness better than none at all? Even if it concerns false facts? The magician says: "Watch the hand". Is that reality enough when the lives of your children depend on it?

Check out this link to 'LiveEarth'

www.liveearth.com

Good hack! :-)

Way Cool. Way Fly. Thanks.

Damn, I was waiting for a new one to post that 1st news item up top:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6283992.stm

I figured it was too important to sit after 300 posts

This is them admitting peak oil right?

'The IEA predicted demand would rise by an average 2.2% a year between 2007 and 2012, up from previous estimates of 2%. It added that geo-political tensions and a lack of spare capacity in Opec production would also limit supplies....'

'...At the same time it predicted production from oil cartel Opec would fall, slipping by 2m bpd in 2009, while it also cut supply forecasts for non-Opec countries by 800,000 bpd.
It added that other factors including rising refinery costs, engineer shortages and strong demand in other energy markets would also put pressure on oil supplies.'

What the hell are limited supplies - PO???

Pond: What I thought was most interesting was their prediction of global biofuel at 1.75 Mbpd in 2012 (double current). At this measly level supposedly there are "economic" constraints. Score another one for the doomers.

Its a pity the full report is hidden behind the paywall for the next two weeks. I would like to pull apart some of these total numbers and see what they really say. The biofuels one effectively says "forget about it, even at best it won't count". Plus non-OPEC is declining. Plus much of OPEC is stationary. What was that phrase about eggs and baskets? Looks like Aramco is it for plans A, B, and C.

I also note that traders "are blaming IEA for scaremongering". IEA, who's motto is "always look on the bright side of life"? Someone has their fingers in their ears, humming "la la, I can't hear you". Expect a positive report from CERA very soon to capitalise on the unreality market.

Gentlemen, ladies, we are at T1, where demand and supply attempt to part company and something has to give. I'm betting on $100 this year.

How long do you figure before somebody asks Aramco to shit or get off the pot?

I believe several have been screaming that at the top of their lungs already. The reply - There's plenty of oil - more than enough - more will do nothing - everything's peachy -talk to us in September.

Its a pity the full report is hidden behind the paywall for the next two weeks.

Try here:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/iea20070707.pdf

Many thanks for that.

Only a short way through so far, but its interesting how a document on oil is spending so much time saying there won't be enough gas by 2012. If they are hinting at peak oil, they are flat out saying peak gas.

Also interesting how rising biofuel feedstock prices make biofuel production uneconomic very rapidly. There is a correlation drawn between fuel prices and corn, etc. prices that kill biofuels as viable.

You are so going to lose that bet to Robert :P

It would have been unthinkable for the IEA to suggest something like this as little as a year ago. IIRC just last year they predicted something like 120 mbpd by 2030! The change of tone is indeed remarkable. How long before Daniel Yergin admits he's been totally wrong all along?

"Certainly our forecast suggests that the non-OPEC, conventional crude component of global production appears, for now, to have reached an effective plateau, rather than a peak," the report said.

That is pretty amazing language from the IEA.

Lower supply from non-OPEC countries and rising demand will boost the requirement for OPEC oil.

Pity oil reservoirs in OPEC countries have the same characteristics as those in the non-OPEC world. Lots of blame and excuses to come - the IEA is still a long way from mentioning peak OPEC production.

That is pretty amazing language from the IEA.

Yep. Prune it a little and you have IEA para-quoted as saying: "Conventional global crude oil production appears to have reached a plateau."

IEA calls the peak.

You know guys, I have not thanked you enough.
Sold my big house, relocated, got out of debt
all thanks to this site and the work being done here.

Thanks !

Pretty weird feeling, being given the opportunity to
watch the scenario unfolding this way,
A scenario that will change alot of the world we know.

This report from IEA let the cat out of the bag.

The IEA said demand for OPEC crude, or the call on OPEC, will rise to 34.7 million bpd in 2011, up 1.3 million bpd from the previous projection

despite IEA projections that

The forecast assumes no net expansion of capacity from Iran, Iraq and Venezuela and that the 500,000 bpd of Nigerian production that has been shut for a year will not reopen during the next five years

Apparently the IEA takes Saudi Aramco statements at face value.

As the IEA economist stated a few weeks ago in a French interview "I have no official reason to doubt Saudi claims".

But as our Ghawar series here recently showed, there is EVERY reason to doubt Saudi claims (plus Matthew Simmons "Twilight in the Desert").

Best Hopes for even more honesty from IEA in the future,

Alan

It will be interesting to see what brown dribble comes out of CERA's mouth in response. It is a shame really as Cambridge for me previously always had connotations of wisdom and knowlegede.

Marco.

"The IEA said demand for OPEC crude, or the call on OPEC, will rise to 34.7 million bpd in 2011, up 1.3 million bpd from the previous projection"

This is actually a meaningless statement because it does not specify at what price! ... we all know that as the price changes so does the demand.

Also, demand can't be more than the maximum (at any price) supply and they don't know what that will be!

Why would anybody ever take any notice of what the IEA says?

Xeroid.

This is actually a meaningless statement because it does not specify at what price! ... we all know that as the price changes so does the demand.

Excellent point. There is clearly a price-demand curve. Quoting the value on the demand axis without mentioning the price that corresponds to this demand has no sense.

I think the reason is for this mistake is that people still think in terms of how it used to be where OPEC could insure that price of oil was artificially low and fairly stable. That was achievable when demand was way less then possible supply. Not so anymore. Now there are real market forces that price oil, not some cartel.

OPEC political shortages?

OPEC crude supply was little changed according to this document:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/pdf/pages/sec11_2.pdf

Q1 2007 OPEC production was about 1.1 million barrels per day below 2005 production averages.

Q1 2007 OPEC production was about 760,000 barrels per day below 2006 production averages.

OPEC needed to restrict its production to try to preserve prices. They have been doing this for more than 20 years.

They were able to cut to as low as 16.4 million barrels of average oil production per day in 1985.

If someone in OPEC says the price of oil is going to be high, who is to dispute it? Was driving on an interstate and wondered why there were so many SUV's and minivans on the road. To read TOD one might think we are near the apex of peak production, depending on the day's Drumbeat articles. OPEC complained about excess inventories in the world. Look at the U.S. There were record high oil inventories. It seems some tanks must be full to the brim. What good would pumping more oil do? There is plenty of oil, not enough gasoline.

In 2006 one might have determined that Vietnam oil production had peaked. They have been drilling and finding fast flowing wells in various blocks. Now it seems they might peak later.

Malaysian Crude was some of the best crude in the world, yet they are in a production decline without indication of near-term reversal.

It is A TIMELY shift in the assumptions coming from IEA - and governments have to listen up and consume this message as of yesterday.
Where the IEA has been the last years on their assessments - don't ask me. But they have not understood the reality of max discovery took place way back in the 1960's - along side with lesser and lesser annual add-ons for the same the following years.
Their "into the night"-approach to the prospects for future productions, like 2030 = 130 mbd, is simply beyond my understanding and certainly does not add up mathematically or in other ways, apart from wishful thinking …

Best hopes for the idea of reality-checking from now on …

(Borrowed from AlanfrombigEasy …. I like those “Best hopes …”)

I believe the true situation has shifted so massively, it was, move this far in this direction, or totally lose any glimmer of credibility going forward.

Hello Cid Yama,

Good point. It would have been fun to be a fly on the wall inside the IEA listening to the raging debate between those further advocating for more rosy press releases versus those advocating more dire and truthful press releases. I bet some of the staff now purposely eats on the opposite side of the IEA cafeteria: as they nurse their wounded egos from the earlier internecine tribal warfare.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Still something to feel rosy about: At least they aren't eating EACH OTHER at the IEA cafeteria yet!

;-)

Actually, they said pretty much the same thing 8 months ago.

The world is on a course that will lead it "from crisis to crisis" unless governments act immediately to save energy and invest in nuclear and biofuels, the International Energy Agency warned yesterday.

In an apocalyptic forecast, Claude Mandil, the agency's executive director, said that our current path "may mean skyrocketing prices or more frequent blackouts; can mean more supply disruptions, more meteorological catastrophes - or all these at the same time".

The IEA said the oilfields on which Europe and the US had come to depend to reduce their reliance on the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would peak in the next five to seven years.

This is from the Financial Times: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/287c30ba-6ecf-11db-b5c4-0000779e2340,Authorised=...

Thanks to Migeru for the pointer!

So "demand" will rise by 2.2% per year for the next 4 years, while ace has made projections that world total liquids will hardly rise by more than a few percentage points in that time before beginning a terminal descent. So we can look forward to a gap between supply and "demand" (is that demand for $30 oil, $75$ or $200?) of around 10%. Work in westexas's ELP model and ... very interesting!

Interesting as well to see that another denialist organisation is "owning up" to PO, albeit in a roundabout sort of way.

Doc: Their ambiguous "demand" definition appears to be demand at today's ($75) price. So what they are really saying in English is that they are currently forecasting major increases in the price of oil over the next 5 years.

Exactly!

What IEA is calling seems to me to be what Robert Rapier calls "Peak Lite," where the demand curve moves more than the supply curve, thus raising prices and limiting both quantity supplied and quantity demanded (which, of course, are always identically equal, by definition).

Now the next question would seem to be:

By how much will prices increase over the next few years?

I am not going to stick my neck out on this one, because there are too many unknowables, especially what will be the macroeconomic state of the global economy--recession, financial collapse, depression, stability, runaway inflation, garden-variety stagflation, slow growth, . . . . ?

Don,

The vast majority of Americans expect nothing worse than a mild recession in the next 5 years. Given that constraint, what price will be needed to make quantity demanded = quantity supplied using price alone in 2012 ?

I have my thoughts, but would like to see yours.

PS: This is why I cannot see BAU causing "only" a mild recession.

Alan

Alan: Another thing to keep in mind is that if current trends continue, China's economy (PPP) will be larger than that of the USA by 2012.

I shall yield to somebody who knows far more about oil than I do: Matt Simmons. He talks in terms of oil at $200 per barrel in the near future, and I think he knows what he is talking about.

In my WAG opinion, we shall have mild recession, maybe a rebound, severe recession, stagflation, worsening inflation and then horrendous inflation.

Interesting times by 2012. Very interesting times by 2020.

Could be really interesting. I caught a History Channel show this weekend and it seem the Mayan calendar and the i-ching both come to an abrupt end in 2012. Is someone trying to tell us something?

Mose in Midland

The bit about the I Ching appears to be some stupid numerology (see http://survive2012.com/why_2012_fractal.php). The observation about the Mayan calendar has my New Age and Pagan friends all a-twitter, but to me it looks like just another example of H. Sap's ability/need to see patterns in everything.

2012 could turn out to be massively significant, but I doubt it will be The End Of Time or anything woowoo like that. These kinds of pronouncements say a lot more about human nature than Mother Nature.

2012 is an election year in the U.S.; 2020 is another one. My picking of these dates for attention is mainly because they are election years.

The good news is that in my opinion, TSHTF is not this year or next year nor even the year after. The bad news is that Peak Oil is not a "theory," it is an inevitability--and one not far in the future. The sheer economic and social and human pain that will result from Peak Oil puts it into