DrumBeat: July 16, 2007

Energy's Manpower Peak? - Why the biggest problem might not be oil

For headhunters like Tom Zay, business couldn’t be better. “I have never seen demand like this,” says Zay, a managing director in the Houston office of Boyden, an executive worldwide search firm. “We’ve had cycles in the past. But this is different.”

Indeed it is. While Zay looks for executives and top-level managers, the entire energy industry – from welders, tank builders, and roughnecks to petroleum engineers, nuclear engineers, and technicians – is strapped for talent. And the problems are likely to get substantially worse before they get better. Nor is the labor shortage limited to the U.S. and the hydrocarbon sector. Rather, it is worldwide, and being felt in industries ranging from coal mining to nuclear power. The reasons for the labor crunch are many: an aging workforce, lagging student interest in engineering, a lack of interest in blue-collar jobs like welding, and perhaps most important, the strong commodity prices that have led to a boom in energy projects of all types.

PetroChina Output Climbs 3.7%, Outpacing Exxon, Shell

PetroChina Co., the nation's biggest oil company, increased first-half production 3.7 percent, surpassing growth at Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc as China intensifies efforts to meet energy demand.


Niger hopes for oil riches under northern desert

Niger plans to award oil exploration permits by the end of next month for a vast block under the Sahara desert it hopes will turn it into Africa's newest crude producer.

The landlocked former French colony is one of the poorest states on earth but is sandwiched between oil producers Nigeria to the south and Libya and Algeria to the north. This has raised expectations among its population for a future oil bonanza.


Uganda: Disputed Buliisa Land Sitting On Vast Oil Deposits

ETHNIC clashes in Buliisa District in Western Uganda could have more to do with oil discoveries than grazing rights.

Contrary to the impression created that the Bagungu natives and the Balaalo pastoralists just woke up a few weeks ago and started feuding over rights to use land for either cultivation or grazing, the groups unknowingly represent bigger interests in Uganda's newly discovered oil.


Brazil to Build Dams Despite Bolivian Concerns

Despite Bolivian concerns about the environmental impact of two dams slated for construction in the Amazon region, Brazil's foreign minister said Friday they would be built as planned.


Turkey returns to energy chess game

Turkey made an important move in the energy chess game when it signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran over the weekend that will make both Russia and the US rethink their positions on gas policies in particular and on energy policy in general, said Cenk Pala, director general of strategic relations at state-owned Turkish Pipeline Company (BOTAŞ), affiliated with the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources.


Rising demand for nuclear energy among Asian nations

Asian countries are lining up to expand or introduce nuclear power. All say they need it to meet surging demand for electricity to run their growing economies. Yet the enlargement of nuclear generating capacity being planned by so many states is raising fears about catastrophic accidents and the spread of nuclear weapons in the region, just as hopes are being buoyed that North Korea will dismantle its nuclear arms program.


Emissions don't make Europe happy

Europe's carbon emissions have risen markedly over the last 40 years, but the extra fuel use has brought little increase in happiness, a report says.


A dress rehearsal for the final collapse of liberal capitalist ideology

The right-wing apologists of capitalism, for their part, have assured us that socialism cannot ever work; when the evidence of Venezuela suggests otherwise, they say that it depends on the unsustainable mining of Venezuela’s oil resources, and that socialism in Venezuela will collapse when oil prices fall.


Paris mobilises pedal power to cut traffic and pollution

Thousands of Parisians pedalled into Sunday traffic astride stately grey bicycles yesterday after the opening of an ambitious scheme to turn the car-snarled French capital into the eco-friendly City of Bike.

In the hot midday sun, a network of 750 high-tech stations went live, releasing 10,600 bicyclettes at very low cost to anyone with a credit card.


Report: Radioactivity leaked from Japan nuke plant

Water containing radioactive material leaked at a Japanese nuclear power plant following Monday's earthquake, Kyodo News agency reported.


Chris Skrewbowski on the dramatic shortage of new LNG mega projects (audio)

The LNG market currently presents users with a paradox. Demand is booming and rising numbers of countries are looking to LNG imports for increased security of supply and to cover emerging production shortfalls. Yet on the supply side virtually nothing has changed from a year ago in terms of plans for new liquefaction capacity.


Four reasons to cultivate greener IT

Consider what Gartner proclaimed at the end of 2006: Half of datacenters will run out of power by 2008. As explained by Timothy Morgan at ITJungle:

"Gartner did not, by the way, literally mean that datacenters would go dark in two years after blowing some fuses or melting under their own heat. What Gartner did say was that by the end of 2008, 50 percent of the datacenters in the world would not have enough power to meet the power and cooling requirements of the high-density computing gear that vendors are increasingly peddling."


Zambia's Indeni refinery stocks depleted, now using reserves

Zambia's sole oil refinery is working from reserves after running out of fuel stocks amid growing energy demand, an industry official told Dow Jones Newswires Monday.


Mexico Needs Calderón’s Proposed Fiscal Reforms

Pemex, thanks to the government leeching off of it, is woeful, saddled with debt and in desperate need of outside technology as it searches for more oil in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Mexico’s government, addicted to crude, stares into an abyss of insolvency as Pemex faces a sharp drop-off in production.

Calderon’s fiscal reform aims to correct all of that (well, at least some it): it will increase corporate tax collection, lower tax evasion, and reduce the government’s reliance on oil revenues, all in one fell swoop.


Policy Implications of Mexican Pipeline Blasts

The natural gas pipeline explosions in Mexico, of July 3-10, 2007, have been attributed to acts of sabotage by a long-dormant peasant movement that is based in the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca. In Guanajuato, these acts of sabotage have had a cascade effect: the cut-off of natural gas has forced manufacturing plants to suspend operations, at the daily cost of hundreds of thousands of dollars, not only to the plants but to laid-off employees, the export account of the country, and even the exchange rate of the Mexican peso.

Pemex — for lack of gas storage — had to scramble to export its gas to Texas markets, doubtless at a discount.


Greens to banks: Just say no to coal

Fueled by climate change concern and a Texas utility's recent scrapping of several "dirty" power plants, one environmental group is looking to cut funding for new coal fired power plants at the source: the big banks.


Company wins $4.5m in venture funds to test energy source

Every day in America, Boston energy entrepreneur Bill Davis calculates, trash gets thrown out that has enough latent energy content to generate 110,000 megawatts of electricity -- five times the typical demand for all of New England.

Now Davis's company, Ze-Gen Inc., is about to take a first small step towards proving whether that trash could be a new clean-burning electric generation source of the future. It's disclosing today it has closed on $4.5 million in venture capital funding for a New Bedford test facility.


David Strahan: If you're in a hole, merge. But is it too late for BP and Shell?

With reserves running dry in non-Opec countries, rumours of a marriage could finally come true. Even a combined group, though, might struggle in its quest for more black gold.


Plan Iraq - Permanent Occupation

Even with dated information on its potential, it's known Iraq has at least 10% of dwindling world reserves. But it's potential was "frozen in time" with no new development in over two decades because of intervening wars in the 1980s, economic sanctions following the Gulf war in 1991, and the current war ongoing since March, 2003. If the country's potential doubles or triples, as Saudi Arabia's did in the last 20 years, it would, in fact, have the world's largest (mostly untapped) proved reserves making Iraq too rich a prize for America and its Big Oil allies to pass up. It's worth trillions of dollars and immense geopolitical power at a time of peak oil in the face of future dwindling supplies, except in this resource-rich country the US won't ever leave as long as there's enough of them in the ground and region to justify staying.


No cheer in the oil story

Unless you're an executive at a major oil company, statistics coming out of the industry make for dismal reading. Not only is the oil price trading at 11-month highs of over US$76/barrel - approaching last year's record highs of just under $79 - but prospects for any relief are extremely dismal. This week the reputable International Energy Agency (IEA) sounded the alarm on an oil supply crisis in five years' time. Assuming global economic growth of 4,5%/year - conservative by most estimates - oil demand will grow at an annual rate of 2,2%, the IEA forecasts.


Oil Pipeline Plan Raises EU Fears

A new Russian crude oil export pipeline may cut supplies to refineries in Hungary, Slovakia, Germany and other central European countries, PVM Oil Associates said Friday.


China's CNOOC wins Somalia oil exploration rights

China's state-owned CNOOC has been granted exploration rights by Somalia's interim government, the Financial Times reported.


Bahah: Oil production will increase by 2009

According to Minister of Oil, Gas and Mineral Resources Khalid Bahah, Yemen’s Oil and Gas prospects in 2009 is quite optimistic. Crude oil production is to reach 500,000 barrels per day; Extraction capacity from current reserves will increase from 30% to 70%; and income from sale of natural gas will reach US$ 1-2 billion per year.


China says climate change drying up major rivers

Chinese scientists have warned that rising temperatures are draining wetlands at the head of the country's two longest rivers, choking their flow and imperiling water supplies to hundreds of millions of people.


Warming may bring hurricanes to Mediterranean

Global warming could trigger hurricanes, or tropical cyclones, over the Mediterranean sea, threatening one of the world's most densely populated coastal regions, according to European scientists.


Are these the last days of the Oil Age?

Oil ruled the 20th century; the shortage of oil will rule the 21st. There is now no doubt about the rising trend in oil prices. In 2003 a barrel of Brent crude sold for $29; in 2004 it rose to $38; in 2005 it rose to $54.50; in 2006 it rose to $65. Last Friday the price closed at $77.50. Some dealers expect it to test the $80 level quite shortly.

Last Tuesday the lead story in The Financial Times was the latest report from the International Energy Agency. The FT quoted the IEA as saying: “Oil looks extremely tight in five years’ time,” and that there are “prospects of even tighter natural gas markets at the turn of the decade”. For an international agency, that is inflammatory language. This steep rise in the oil price over a four-year period has been caused by demand rising at more than 2 per cent a year, while supplies had risen more slowly, by a healthy 4.1 per cent in 2004, but by only 1.25 per cent in 2005 and 0.5 per cent in 2006.

This has revived the “oil peak” debate among oil analysts. Some analysts believe that the world will never again be able to pump as much oil as we are pumping at present.


Japan shuts units at top nuclear plant after quake

Tokyo Electric Power Co. has shut down three major generators at the world's biggest nuclear power plant after Monday's powerful earthquake in Japan caused a brief fire in one of the units, company officials said.


UN warns it cannot afford to feed the world

Rising prices for food have led the United Nations programme fighting famine in Africa and other regions to warn that it can no longer afford to feed the 90m people it has helped for each of the past five years on its budget.

...Josette Sheeran, WFP executive director, said in an interview with the Financial Times: “In a world where our contributions are holding fairly steady, this [cost increase] means we are able to reach far less people.”

She said policymakers were becoming more concerned about the impact of biofuel demand on food prices and how the world would continue to feed its expanding population.


Uganda gears up to become oil producer

Flanked by the rolling green hills and steep, jagged escarpments of the western Rift Valley, an oil rig prepares to drill deep into Ugandan earth.

Better known for its myriad conflicts in recent years, Africa Great Lakes region has become one of most exciting frontiers in a hunt for oil on the continent that is increasingly focused away from traditional West African sources.


Hundreds of Iraqis protest draft oil law

About 300 oil industry workers gathered in Iraq's main oil port of Basra today to protest a draft law that they said would allow foreigners to pillage the country's wealth.

'To compensate for the military and political failure of the US administration in Iraq, this administration is trying to control the country's wealth,' the organisers said in a statement distributed to reporters.


New Oil Reports Add Confusion To 'Peak Oil' Theory

Conflicting reports makes the entire landscape of oil predictions very murky. Sometime one feels that predictions are dime a dozen and very much Malthusian in nature. If one prediction comes out to be wrong few others can be made with ease, there is no accountability for wrong predictions, Club of Rome prophecies of doom and gloom are not talked about we have lived through those years of intended doom with greatest of comforts. Malthusian food/ population disconnect never ever materialized, although proponents of Malthus cite Somalian famine as one example but on larger scale of 'scarcity' of resources the inbuilt mechanism of natural exponential growth defy scientific limitations since the inception of known civilization short journey of less than 10,000 years.


Chechen president accuses Moscow of hoarding oil revenues

Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov accused Moscow in an interview published Friday of hoarding oil and tax revenue needed to rebuild the war-shattered republic.

'Everything is ruined here, and the funds aren't being spread around. The federal centre takes our income. Oil, taxes -- they take them both, and tell us: 'Okay, build',' Kadyrov told daily newspaper Izvestia.


Power lines coming to national parks? - Federal regulators propose new corridors for transmission lines

GETTYSBURG, Pa. - Apple trees have been planted, wood fences restored and power lines buried in recent years to transform the Civil War battlefield in Gettysburg to the way it looked when Union and Confederate forces clashed on farmers' fields in 1863.

But preservationists now worry that the national military park in Pennsylvania's picturesque fruit belt soon may be in the shadow of high-powered transmission lines.

ASPO-USA OIL CONFERENCE EARLY REGISTRATION ENDS AUG.1

SAVE $50.00 with the EARLY REGISTRATION FEE DISCOUNT for General Public for the ASPO-USA WORLD OIL CONFERENCE ON PEAK OIL in Houston Texas this fall.

The registration fee is scheduled to increase $50.00 for the general public on Aug. 1. The Registration Fee includes breakfast and lunch on Thursday and Friday and the two receptions.

The Association has obtained a $154.00 + tax per night room rate from the hotel.

Conference information http://www.aspousa.org/aspousa3/index.cfm

Direct to registration http://www.regonline.com/Checkin.asp?EventId=136392

I have never been to one of these conferences. What is the usual attendance for these events? What types of people / companies attend?

dpatek

Last year we had a sellout in Boston of about 500. The capacity in Houston is a little over 800.

I would guess the audience last year was about split between the general public and business. Because of the Houston location we expect to attract more Petroleum engineers and Geologist etc. but will still get lot of the general public.

Rick

Hello Ricko,

Thxs for posting the ASPO Conf. reminder--I hope lots of people go to this event. I also hope TODers took the time to email/snailmail their favorite celebrity in the hopes that they too will attend so that ASPO can get additional MSM coverage. Recall my earlier free to cut/paste/modify text to encourage George Clooney to make the ASPO scene.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Damnnit I'm in school for that. maybe my future employer will send me down.

Syria Prepared to Go to War with Israel

The Baath official, who spoke on condition his name be withheld, said Damascus is preparing for anticipated Israeli retaliation following Syrian guerrilla attacks and for a larger war with the Jewish state in August or September. He said in the opening salvo of any conflict, Syria has the capabilities of firing "hundreds" of missiles at Tel Aviv.

http://cid-yama.livejournal.com/19335.html

Also, Israel diverts water from Golan away from Syria; could it be 'all about the water'?

Arkansawyer here.

The WND is not reliable. Kinda like Debka.

Second. I've never heard this-

In 1964, Syria diverted the Hasbani and Banyas rivers, depriving Israel of major fresh water resources. Israel retaliated by launching airstrikes at Syrian constructions.

But I have heard this-

Jordan 'nearly running dry'
The Dead Sea

Last Updated: Friday, 11 March 2005, 16:17 GMT

The Dead Sea is also under threat of drying up.
The river Jordan is in danger of disappearing altogether under pressure from huge water diversion programs, an environmental group has warned.

More than 90% of the water is being diverted by Israel, Jordan and Syria, Friends of the Earth Middle East say.

Water is more important than oil.

Above post has multiple links to several sources.

If Syria attacks Israel, how many days do you think it will take Israel to push within artillery range of Damascus? I think the over/under should be about 3.

Arkansawyer

BBC-

"1967: Israel launches attack on Egypt

Israeli forces have launched a pre-emptive attack on Egypt and destroyed nearly 400 Egypt-based military aircraft."

The Arab world waits for the US to withdraw from Iraq.

The status quo favors the Arab World.

The status quo does not favor Israel.

Is Jordan flowing toward oblivion?
Deseret News (Salt Lake City), Dec 3, 2006

DEGANYA, Israel -- At a baptismal site on the Jordan River just south of the Sea of Galilee, pilgrims kneel in the water as a priest intones a blessing, a high point of their visit to the Holy Land.

A few hundred yards downstream beyond an earthen dam, a pipe spews raw sewage into the riverbed, next to a canal dumping saline water collected from springs. With the fresh river water blocked by the dam, all that flows on is a polluted, salty stream meandering 60 miles south to the Dead Sea.

I'd say 2 hours. Damascus is only 50miles from the Golan Heights.

Arkansawyer

Yes, I agree. But no names used/anonymous means rumor.

And Syria has nothing to gain from attacking, while
Israel has a history of attacking.

This time last year Israel was trying to capture the Litani.

Didn't work out, but Israel still must have it.

Especially after Syria and Jordan have diverted the Yarmuk.

"We are calling for fresh water from the Kinneret to be restored to the Jordan River," says Bromberg." Litvinoff adds that even a partial restoration of water flow would help rehabilitate the river, slow the decline in the Dead Sea water level and allow for tourism development to replace agriculture.

FOEME has received a discouraging message on this score from the Water Commission. "Rehabilitating the Jordan is particularly problematic because it is a river shared with neighboring countries," Water Commissioner Shimon Tal wrote to Bromberg several weeks ago. "Channeling clear water to the river can only be done through full cooperation among the countries. In view of the water shortage in the region, especially in the neighboring countries, it is hard to believe there would be consent to this."

Arkansawyer

From your article-

Israel has annexed the Golan Heights, the high ground overlooking northern Israel, after liberating it from Syria in 1967 during the Six Day War. More than 40,000 Israeli Jews now live in the Golan.

After liberating it?

Israel's Lifeline the Northern Water Sources
Three principal water sources barely suffice to supply the water requirements of the State of Israel:

The Banias and the Dan- presently flow through sovereign Israeli territory. Syria formerly controlled the sources of the Banias, while the sources of the Dan were right on the border. These waters were the cause of continuous Syrian aggression.

This danger became a real threat in the early Sixties, when the Syrians made an effort to divert the three river beds to a new water carrier, to divert the Banias to the Golan Heights and from there to the Yarmuk basin.

Syria, with plenty of water, would have gained no civilian advantage from this plan, except for the political objective of destroying Israel without having to go to war or employing military means.

Israel frustrated this plan from the outset by a combination of diplomatic efforts and military pressure, at the cost of many casualties and severe damage to front line settlements.

The struggle for the water continued for years and constituted one of the principal causes of the Six Day War....

C. The importance of the Kinneret basin, fed mainly by the Jordan sources, increases with each passing year, and under no circumstances must this source be endangered.

"Beirut's Daily Star newspaper reports that Damascus has ordered its citizens in Lebanon to return home by July 15, citing concerns over the "security situation in Lebanon." And a report in the government controlled Syrian daily al-Thawra said Syrian students studying in the public Lebanese University and the Beirut Arab University were authorized to enroll in public Syrian universities for the upcoming academic year 2007-2008.

MEMRI -- the Middle East Media Research Institute -- reports that on July 5, the Lebanese daily al-Liwa cited rumors that Syrian workers were leaving Lebanon at the request of the Syrian authorities. Arab and Iranian media reports have backed up the probability that Lebanon's current political impasse may turn violent after July 15. Indeed, a number of sensitive events affecting Lebanon and/or Syria coincide with the fatidic July 15 date."

http://www.nowpublic.com/analysis_rumors_syria_israel_war_claude_salhani

Report: Removal of Golan checkpoints possible sign Syria's preparing for war

"Israel is "concerned" that Syria's removal of military checkpoints on their side of the Golan Heights could be a sign that Damascus is preparing for war, the London based Al-Hayat reported Saturday.

The article reported that the checkpoints, which are on the road to Kuneitra, have been there since the Six Day War."

http://web.israelinsider.com/Articles/Security/11645.htm

The US was very disappointed with the outcome of the last Israeli attack on Southern Lebanon, as were the Israelis. Hezbollah did not fold and run away but stood their ground and fought to a draw against the large and sophisticated military of Israel. As a result Israels military lost some street cred in the ME and now feel that they have to regain it by dealing a severe blow to Hezbollah and/or Syria. Robert Fisk has the right idea...he has taken up permanent residence in Beriut...what better place for a war correspondent that doesnt want to commute? We will be treated to yet another summer war...and none to soon to save us from the travails of Paris and the lunatic ramblings of shrub.

And the MSM obsession as to whether Britney has neutered her new dog.

:-(

Alan

Here is the War Nerd's take on the recent Lebanon fiasco.

http://www.exile.ru/2006-August-11/a_hezbollah_upon_all_of_thee.html

His observations as to Israeli youth could easily be applied to us as well. Instead of some hardened Audie Murphy types who had to scrape together a dinner by hunting rabbits in Oklahoma during the depression, we have a bunch of softies who’s idea of neglect is not getting the latest Xbox or cell phone.

Arkansawyer

And I don't trust MEMRI either-

Monday, May 14, 2007

The Lies of MEMRI, yet again. I normally would not link to MEMRI, but this time I will. An alert reader sent me a message when I was in Houston, alerting me to the blatant lies of MEMRI in this clip. I did not have a chance to view it and verify his translation until I returned tonight. He wishes to remain anonymous, but this is his text (thanks anonymous): "

MEMRI Clip No. 1442

A Mickey Mouse Character on Hamas TV Teaches Children about Islamic Rule of the World

4/13/2007

...سنابل: بدنا انقاوم.

Sanabel: Bedna enqawem.

Sanabel: We are going to resist.

MEMRI: We want to fight.

فرفور: و بعدين؟ هادي حفظناها و بعدين؟

Farfour: Wo ba’dain? Hadi hfeznaha, wo ba’dain?

Farfour: Then what? We already know this one, then what?

MEMRI: We got that. What else?

سراء: إحنا بدنا..

Sarraa’: Ehna bedna …

Sarraa’: We are going to …

MEMRI: We want to...

سنابل: بطخّونا اليهود.

Sanabel: Betokhoona el yahood.

Sanabel: The Jews will shoot us.

MEMRI: We will annihilate the Jews.

سراء

That's one source quoted in one article. Seems you are working awful hard to put across, "Nothing going on here, move along, nothing to see."

I try not to work very hard.

Entropy and all. 8D

Syria has nothing to gain from Attacking Israel.

Hezbollah has shown the way.

Just sit and wait.

Israel needs water, electricity, gas, and oil.

And the US is withdrawing from Iraq.

Beijing backs Syrian Golan claim
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1184063449364&pagename=JPost%...

Looks like Syria is being activated in the "The Great Game" as the powers struggle for empire.

Triumvirate of collapse - Economy, Ecosystem, Energy

Everyone is getting into the game. Iran announces it has 600 missiles targeted on Israel.
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2007/07/15/iran_claims_600_missile...

This story was going around last week

Syrian Troops Penetrate 3 Kilometers into Lebanese Territories

Syrian troops on Thursday reportedly have penetrated three kilometers into Lebanese territories, taking up positions in the mountains near Yanta in east Lebanon's Bekaa Valley.

http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&549222D...

I would point out that from a military standpoint, those missiles are actually aimed at all targets. What i mean to say is that the coordinates of all targets within range of an installation are known. At firing time, it is simply a matter of entering the command key and issuing the fire command.

i'ts the same with ICBM's with mirv warheads. I guarantee that that every city on earth with more than 100,000 inhabitants or any industry presence is targeted somewhere in some strategy book. Most of course are targeted hundreds of times over.

If I have a missile in range of NY, Boston, and Toronto, who do I hit? It really depends who you wanna kill, you can't kill them all with one missile, but you can scare the crap out of all three until the bird is in the air.

That's not how targeting is done.

Ghawar Is Dying as we slide Into the Grey Zone
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.

The WSJ has a page two article called "Potential Energy Crunch May Bring Other Fuels to the Fore". It starts

World oil and gas supplies from conventional sources are unlikely to keep up with rising global demand over the next 25 years, the U.S. petroleum industry says in a draft report of a study commissioned by the government.

The article is primarily about the NPC report, but also mentions last week's IEA medium term outlook report and Matt Simmons comment

"We should be preparing for a time when, in 10, 15 or 20 years, oil production is likely to be 40 million barrels a day to 60 million barrels a day, not 120 million," he said.

So the issue is getting page two coverage, if not page one coverage.

I think this is the article discussed in yesterday's DrumBeat. It's viewable online, but only if you go through Google.

Try clicking here, then clicking on the article that comes up.

Nice article at the top of the drumbeat, but you left this out of the sample.

The situations for blue-collar workers is matched by that for white-collar professionals. For instance, engineers are in short supply in the North Sea, where Robert Rapier works for one of the supermajors. Rapier, who writes the R-Squared Energy Blog and requested anonymity for his company, says the demand for engineers is “insatiable,” and that he has “posted jobs that literally go unfilled.

But Daniel Yeargin said oil would drift down to $30 a barrel. Surely the spokesman for Cambridge Energy Research Associates wouldn't get a call so tremendously wrong would he? I mean at the current WTIC spot price $74.10 per barrel we are at 2.4 Yeargins. The price is almost 2.5 times higher than he predicted. And that is giving him the benefit of the doubt because the WTIC spot is lower than the other world spot prices.
Surely I am in error, I find it hard to believe that such an esteemed expert speaking for such a renowned research company could be so wrong.
Did he call for $30 oil? Isn't the cheapest contract now about $74?
Please? who do we turn to for guidance in times such as these?

Gunga2006,

Rather than putting your faith in Daniel Yurgin, who is paid by the big oil companies, I suggest the I Ching. Some old fashioned people suggest reading the entrails of a sacrificed animal, or even the Tarot, but I think the process of determining patterns from chance and chaos works best.

I'd let you know the results of my own divinations, but its spiritually developing for you to seek your own.

Yeargin = politician = liar

Because of crackpots like Yeargin some oil officials have hedged oil production below $50 a barrel for fears that the price of oil might collapse. It has cost companies billions. It does nothing to help the consumer as the oil execs were misled and money that would otherwise be used for finding and development was divereted to the hedge contract people.

If the price of oil were going to $45, what would OPEC do?

Then after 4 years...you think they would stop paying $1000 bucks to buy his report and call him a crackpot too. Since, they would be the ones losing the money.

Odd.

The market is zero sum. Somebody made money on those hedges, and THEY anticipated peak oil. ERGO the money is in the right hands (the smart investor, understanding peak oil!!)

!!i deserve a standing applause for that.!!

Arkansawyer

"We should be preparing for a time when, in 10, 15 or 20 to 60 million barrels a day, not 120 million," he said.

"We should be preparing for a time when, in 10 years, ...oil production is likely to be 40 million barrels a day."

5% depletion per year x 10 = positive feedback loop