DrumBeat: August 4, 2007


U.S. fuel thirst deepens despite more mass transit

Lofty gasoline prices have helped push U.S. public transit ridership to the highest level since the country spawned its highway system in the 1950s -- but the growth is not enough to drive down demand for motor fuel any time soon.

Demand Destruction - Market Failure

Stern and others have pointed out that markets for coal, then oil and gas never quantified or priced their greenhouse gas emissions. As the potential serious consequences of climate change are now being understood, this externality can now be considered the biggest market failure ever. More importantly, this historic inability of markets to value something as important as the humanity endangering consequences of burning fossil fuels calls into question the central tenet of our socio-economy.


India mixes arms and energy access

India's energy needs and status as a big global arms purchaser from some and supplier to others are increasingly becoming intertwined. Having lost out to China in several direct bids for energy sources around the world, the tying up of energy needs with arms supplies or purchase contracts is emerging as a subtle, even if unstated, strategy.


Energy lobby marshals forces

As Congress debates a bill today that would block energy development on Garfield County's Roan Plateau, the Denver oil and gas lobby is preparing to roll out a counter-blitzkrieg.


Say bye bye to bananas, hello local with '100 Mile Diet'

Say goodbye to coffee. Adios to chocolate. Bananas, pineapples and olives, too. Store-bought cookies, crackers and cereal. Frozen dinners.

Seattle residents committed to following the "100 Mile Diet" -- an experiment in eating only what's grown 100 miles from home -- said sayonara to all of these items for the month of August.

...The grass-roots non-profit Sustainable Ballard is coordinating the local effort to follow the diet. The group is hosting a kickoff event Sunday at the Ballard Farmers Market. Chefs will highlight meals made of local ingredients. During the month, the group is holding a canning and preserving class and people are encouraged to meet for local-food potlucks.


Electric Politics podcast: Yesterday This Day's Madness Did Prepare

One fact to keep in mind. Instead of taking their recent, unprecedented, and obscene profits and reinvesting them, big oil companies are returning the money to shareholders as dividends. Ergo there's no more oil to be discovered. We know that for other reasons, but if somebody tries to argue with you about Peak Oil, just point out to them that big oil has zero interest in getting at the truth. Or big oil's lackeys. To take another tour d'horizon of the Peak Oil situation I turned to David Strahan, an award-winning former BBC journalist who's written an outstanding book, The Last Oil Shock. David pulls the story together in a unique, intriguing and most persuasive way. I very much enjoyed talking with him and I hope you find this show interesting and useful.


Oil price in danger zone — OPEC concerned, US worried

Oil at an all-time high near $80 a barrel has pushed top fuel consumer the United States into the economic danger zone — and OPEC, too, is concerned.

The 12 exporters are keeping a lid on supply for now given ample stocks of crude worldwide, but if prices stay this high or inventories continue to drain, they may reconsider when they meet on Sept 11. Expensive fuel has had only a modest impact on US consumers, but Energy Secretary Sam Bodman voiced concern the economy will suffer if prices do not fall soon. “That’s why I hope that both OPEC and non-OPEC nations will look carefully at the facts,” he said on Thursday — the day after US crude hit a record $78.77.


The E.U. and Russia: An Uneasy Oil and Gas Bond

There is no shortage of paranoia in the West these days over Russia's revitalized, energy-driven, superpower status. Much of it was fueled by the German-Russian Nord Stream gas pipeline mega-deal in 2005. Not only did it confirm Germany's status as Russia's preferred strategic European partner, but for many it also confirmed Europe's dangerous over reliance on Russian energy. Those fears were bolstered again in June when Italy’s Eni signed up with Gazprom to develop the huge South Stream pipeline.


In pursuit of sustainable communities

The SCD focus is indicative of our belief that all global issues can ultimately only be solved at the local level — community by community, region by region.

It must be representative of our response to climate change, peak oil, water shortage, biodiversity loss, socio-economic disparity, localized employment, educational access, health care, transportation and commerce and a myriad of other issues.


Professor urges 'sustainable' solution

Contrary to the hope of rural America, ethanol and biodiesel aren't the "silver bullet" solution to the nation's looming energy shortage.

In fact, the use of food crops to fuel Pontiacs, not people, is something akin to a crime against humanity -- at least in a world where Third World, peasant farmers allegedly are being pushed off their land by wealthy investors who want to capitalize on the biofuel boom.


South Africa: Petrol panic sweeps city

Panic petrol buying is sweeping Cape Town as the fuel industry strike bites and pumps run dry across the Peninsula.

And there is no chance of more fuel until early next week.


The serious money says biofuel

Whether the market is gripped by irrational exuberance and zooming to new highs, or enduring one of its periodic meltdowns, it's risky to bet against the tide -- no matter what your personal views.

Apparently, that lesson isn't lost on Alberta Energy Minister Mel Knight. He unveiled details of a $209-million program earlier this week to help Alberta biofuel producers ramp up output.


Sales tax on gas would boost roads, colleges

Early in the third year of Referendum C's five-year timeout from the Taxpayer's Bill of Rights, it's obvious Colorado has enough money to upgrade either its congested highway network or its tattered higher education system.


Where's the bridge money?

Insecure road funding is an unintended consequence of what is hailed as a healthy trend toward more fuel-efficient vehicles. Even though the number of cars on the road and miles traveled have grown, gasoline use - and thus gas taxes - have remained essentially flat. The result is that the gas-tax trust fund that has subsidized the nation's road system for decades will run out of money by 2009.

Federal, state and local governments collectively spend about $70 billion each year on roads and bridges. That's $9 billion less than is needed to maintain them and $62 billion less than is needed to expand the system to handle growth, Federal Highway Administration figures show.


Be Fearful, Be Brave

Byron King, editor of Outstanding Investments, examined investment opportunities among oil and gas stocks. Because the world is no longer awash in oil, King declared, the energy sector – both traditional and alternative – will be awash in great opportunities.

The "cheap oil" days are over, he warned, which means the energy-dependent American lifestyle will become costlier to maintain...maybe much costlier. "We've invented the cheap-energy system that has given us prosperity and freedom," King explained, "now we begin the descent. We'll either have to invent our way out of it, or go back to the way it was before."

n He was talking, of course, about our petroleum-based economy... in the face of Peak Oil. Once mocked, denied and ridiculed, the realities of Hubbert's theory are now coming to pass as, one by one, the world's oil fields pass their peak production rates and ease into decline.


Precious Oil

The Independent Philippine Petroleum Companies Association (IPCA) announced that the public will again expect (dread seems to be a more appropriate word) another round of fuel price increases averaging at P0.50 per liter in the coming weeks. This, IPCA Chairman Glen Yu said, will have to be implemented because of a $4 dollar per barrel increase in the price of oil in the world market, which he finds confusing because of the adequate supply of oil. Who is then responsible for the spikes in oil prices?


Crude Oil & Gold: Profiting From the Linkage

Regarding Crude Oil, among the many reasons for Deepcaster’s long-term bullishness is that the world is at about “peak oil” - - that is, the peak of possible production. Whether “peak oil” is actually this year, or in the next year or two or three, is rather irrelevant. The evidence, according to Matt Simmons, Boone Pickens, and others in a position to know, is that we are at “peak oil.” One salient fact is that the rate of consumption considerably exceeds the rate of discovery, and has for some time.


Helicopter Crashes In S Nigeria, Pilot Dead

Helicopters have taken on an increasing role in transporting oil workers amid rising insecurity in southern Nigeria, where all of Nigeria's crude is pumped. More than 150 foreigners have been kidnapped in Nigeria this year alone, with many taken from their vehicles as they traveled on the region's roads.

But Nigeria's aviation industry has also had troubles. Hundreds of people have died in aircraft accidents over the past three years, with analysts blaming poor maintenance and untrained ground crews.


As gas prices decline, so does interest in buying hybrid cars

The latest Cars.com Consumer Search Index is showing a significant decline in searches for hybrids and other fuel-efficient cars, all of which saw dramatic increases during the last several months when gas prices were at all-time highs.


Roofs and energy efficiency

At a time when many countries are talking of energy efficiency and energy conservation, these are costly alternatives that also cause harm to the environment. Air-conditioning exhaust and power generation add carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Besides, these expensive appliances are useless in the face of power brownouts and a looming energy crisis.

What many do not realize is that the biggest source of their problem is the roof.


Canada: Fuel-cell buses promised for 2010 Olympics

Whistler will become home to the world's largest fleet of hydrogen fuel-cell buses by the 2010 Olympic Games in a five-year, $89-million project announced Friday by the B.C. government.


Area food banks feel strain while prices rise - Donations drop as consumers struggle, charity officials say

The annual rate of increase of food prices for the first six months of this year was 8 percent, said Patrick Jackman, an economist with the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last year, the rate was 1.4 percent, and the year before, 1.7 percent.


UK: Homeowners offered support to get 'green grants'

A new system to help homebuyers get green grants worth hundreds of pounds to lower their fuel bills and make their homes greener has been announced, linked to the introduction of Home Information Packs and Energy Performance Certificates.

Most people are unaware that there are typical grants of £100 to £300 for cut price loft and cavity wall insulation.


UK: Lib Dems plan air tax to aid rail

The Liberal Democrats say they would put an extra £10 tax per ticket on internal flights in Britain to help fund improvements to the rail network.

They are also proposing to put a toll on road freight, while encouraging private investment in railways.


Is green the new sexy?

Recycling and turning off the standby are apparently the new ways to a woman's heart according to a poll for men's magazine Nuts. Women quizzed for the survey on the personality traits they found most attractive in men, put caring about the environment top of their list, surprisingly ahead of a good sense of humour.


Russia warns it will reject any extra gas demand from Turkey

Turkey's largest natural gas provider, Russia, has warned state-owned Turkish Pipeline Company (BOTAŞ) to refrain from demanding more gas than the amount specified in a supply contract between the two countries, according to Energy Ministry officials, leaving Turkey with the threat of yet another natural gas crisis looming on the horizon.

Turkey has been relying on Russia for natural gas, especially in the winter months, when Iran has failed in the past to provide the amount required.

Leaving questions about the issue unanswered, BOTAŞ officials hinted that Turkey was likely to face what could turn out a serious energy crisis this winter.


Equilibrium Metal Demand and the Relativism of Peak Resource Pronouncements

All of the debate on peak oil and peak resources in general overlooks that what is peak for the gander may not be peak for the goose. This is overlooked not because it isn’t obvious, but because the American financial establishment doesn’t want to face the political aspects of local and relative peak resource problems caused by environmental activism domestically and resource nationalism abroad. American financiers disguise their lack of interest in the future welfare of America by telling us that all markets are now global, and one has to go with the flow.

The temporary salvation of America’s economy is the fact that we are the first industrialized country to reach major natural resource equilibrium. We, in America, already have most of the permanent metal product infrastructure that we need and we recycle on a massive scale, so that we need new metal only incrementally.


Book Review: Twilight in the Desert - The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons

One of the greatest questions of the modern world concerns whether our recoverable oil supplies will decrease faster than we can replace them with economical new energy sources. If we can keep up, then civilization can continue relatively unchanged and make the leap to the next stage of development. If not, then our modern civilization will face a resource shortfall that could spell the end of our way of life, much like other resource shortfalls have wiped out ancient civilizations.


Gazprom, Beltransgaz Complete Payment Negotiations for Gas Supply

OAO Gazprom said it has completed negotiations with OAO Beltransgaz over the Belarussian company's US $456.2 million debt for natural gas supplies received this year.

"Negotiations have been completed, the first payment made," Gazprom said in a statement.

"In addition to this Gazprom expects full settlement of the outstanding debt within a week and 100 pct completion of current payments."


The Saudi Arabian Economy

Saudi Arabia is the largest economy in the Middle East, comprising 25 percent of the Arab world's GDP. It is the world's leading oil exporter, possessing one-fourth of the world's proven oil reserves. For more than 35 years, Saudi Arabian economic development has been broadly governed by five-year economic development plans. The first five plans emphasized the development of the Kingdom's infrastructure, with later plans having an increasing focus on human resource and private-sector development. Over the past decade, the Saudi Government has placed an emphasis on privatization, particularly in the industrial and agricultural sectors. The 8 th Plan, approved in November 2005, reflects the emphasis placed on economic diversification and the increased importance of developing the non-oil sector in Saudi Arabia.


Joint Irano-Saudi oil project underway

Development of Forouzan Oil Field in cooperation with Saudi Arabia aimed at replacing the existing platforms has entered a new phase.


Even during periods of peak use, Utilities selling surplus electricity

Even though the summer’s been hot, with temperatures hitting 90 degrees or more for nine days last month, there were enough cloudy and rainy afternoons to decrease local electric use, Feltz said.

“Clouds versus no clouds can make a 30-megawatt difference in demand,” she said.


New Book Discloses that Oil, Coal not Needed for Past Several Decades

A concerted effort, funded with tax-payer money through off-the-record' funding, has resulted in the discovery of an entirely new area of physics dealing with energy and propulsion, but special interests, by abusing the National Security Act, have kept these developments illegally classified.


Oil exploration boat attacked in Uganda

Gunmen attacked an oil exploration boat in western Uganda early Friday, killing one worker, officials said.

The motive for the attack was unclear, army spokesman Maj. Felix Kulayigye said.

"We suspect that the gunmen were soldiers from the Congolese national army, though we have no idea why they would launch such an attack," Kulayigye said.


Peak Oil Passnotes: To Sir With love

The U.K. has a problem: Its local oil and gas have peaked. There is no argument, it is not heresy in the local industry and you can say it without being dragged out of your office and exposed as a communist. U.K. North Sea production peaked some years back at about 3 million barrels per day and continues to decline at around 1.8 million barrels per day at the moment. The decline rate is around 7% a year.

The same thing has happened in the United States. Oil production peaked at the start of the 1970s and, despite the huge concentration of capital and wells, continues to decline. These are both basic facts.


U.S. publishes initial terms for Alaska oil leases

The U.S. Interior Department published on Friday the initial terms for its upcoming Alaskan lease sale, which will give energy companies the chance to drill for oil in the state's Chukchi Sea.


Suez: Codelco will control Chile LNG project

Suez Energy Andino, a unit of France's Suez, said on Friday it would have a sizable participation in a planned liquid natural gas complex in northern Chile, but the complex would be controlled by government-owned miner Codelco.


Ireland tidal energy project put on hold

A plan to install the world's biggest tidal energy turbine in Northern Ireland has been put on hold.

...The company said the delay is because the jack-up installation vessel it will charter is stuck on its current project for an extended period.


The Renewables Revolution Will Not Be Televised

To be sure, there have been some recent moments when the media turned its focus on energy. Like when President Bush proclaimed that we are "addicted to oil."

Or like this week, with a slew of energy legislation making its way to the floor of Congress. Among the bills are some important ones that would set higher gas mileage standards for vehicles and establish a federal renewable portfolio standard (RPS) for generating of renewable energy. Some of them may even be voted on today.

But I resisted the urge to write about them, and exhort you to call your Congressmen in support. Why?

Because the renewables revolution will not be televised.

Does anyone think the stock market plunge that we had this past week is anything investors should be worried about? Is this the start of something big? But the real question is what happened to that fabled “Plunge Protection Team” I have heard so much about? How could such a team, if it had any power at all, allowed removal of the Uptick Rule?

This rule, that stocks could only be shorted after an "uptick", was enacted in 1934 to protect against plunges such as we had last week. It was removed July 6th, 2007. Wow! Some power this Plunge Protection Team has. ;-)

Ron Patterson

Ron- the market was down 2% this week, hardly a plunge. The plunge is likely coming though, at some point in next few months. The financial sector is seeing its worst credit market ever - even including 1987 -according to Bear Stearns CFO on conference call yesterday.

Yes its the start of something big, in my opinion, because firms will have to pay more to borrow money going forward, or potentially not be able to borrow. Its bad news for peak oil awareness as well - if economy cracks, demand destruction sets in with a vengeance and we go south on oil prices, giving policymakers no incentive to rock the boat that needs rocking. The marginal barrel - she's a bitch.

Please correct me if I am wrong:

High on 7/19 was 14,121
Close on 8/3 was 13,182

Down 6.65%

The Dow went down 33% between Sept 1929 and Nov 1929. By the way, I was surprised that it was not larger than this.

Rick

It was alot larger than this, in 1930-1932.

And 7/19 was 2.5 weeks ago - "For the week, the S&P fell 1.77 percent, while the Nasdaq fell 1.99 percent."

I somehow thought my Great Depression numbers were small. I'll look into the following years.

Thanks,
Rick

Just an FYI but if the DJIA was to have "kept" growth pace according how the economy was "growing" then it would have had to have been at 14,000 to break even with the year 2000.

It hasn't, so the economy is somewhere like 95-96 right now i would guess.

That would have to be a pretty big crash for oil prices to plunge to the levels you seem to imply.

If it did happen, that would delay many new oil projects.

Let's say a severe global recession happens, and demand goes down a couple million barrels per day world-wide, with prices falling back to the lower $50's, or high $40's. I'll go out on a limb and say that this outcome would seal our fate — we would never again see production levels higher than they are today. I think this for a multitude of reasons, which I won't detail here.

Dave, for reasons you well know, I am a huge oil bull, meaning i think oil prices will be much higher than they are now going forward. I am also a trader and a student of the markets, and more and more I see that societies excesses are going to catch up to them at the worst possible time, when we need proper market signals to move away from oil. We are going to move away from oil, and from everything else that is a luxury, if we go into a steep recession or worse (I never really understood the difference between recession and depresssion, other than medication). On the one hand oil and high quality resource depletion are very inflationary. On the other hand, the worlds largest consumer is running on fumes, borrowing against this and that, highly leveraged, etc. In my experience, when leverage unwinds, as it ALWAYS does, it infiltrates farther than one can imagine, like a typhoon. If Sam Molinaro says this is the worst credit debacle hes seen in his career, then there is a lot more pain to come. In effect, the credit markets have tightened interest rates 250 basis points plus, in less than 6 weeks - the fed has never done more than 50 in this short of time period.

If you need an example of how low near term prices can go in the face of long term scarcity, look no further than natural gas - front month slipped below $6 this week and many traders are calling for so much gas in surplus that we'll have to let it go (i.e. flare it) because storage will be full. Colorado basis gas has been $3 or lower for much of last year - yet futures starting in 2009 are making ALL TIME HIGHS this week. In normal commodity markets (like gold) people would arb this - buy the stuff now and sell forward, thus locking in a profit. But if you buy nat gas now, how can you store it until 2010? This dynamic will be central to our energy debate going forward - how the market differentiates between having enough now and not having enough in the future other than the 'hope' that something will come through.

Of course, at sub $6 gas, the smart operators, those who arent yoked to shareholder demands, will shut-in production and stop drilling, which is a built in speedbump to price declines. This happened after Amaranth blew up last year when we had $4 gas handle.

We live in interesting times. But back on point, the worst thing for long term oil production would be a steep recession now, as you say, we would likely never get back to these levels again by the time the economy reloads.

And yet a recession is exactly what is staring us in the face, isn't it, Nate? Maybe Ace is not so far from the truth with his bottom up forecast that put all liquids peak last year and C&C in May, 2005.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone

Hello Nate,

Your Quote: "But if you buy nat gas now, how can you store it until 2010?"

Standard Disclaimer: I am no expert.

As mentioned before in earlier speculative posts: pass legislation to store the natgas in the chemical form of fertilizer to help support prices to signal paradigm change, and to help bridge the transition to relocalized, organic permaculture.

Recall my earlier posts on the eventual mining depletion of phosphates, and the plant nutrient essentials of the elements: NPK [nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium]. We also need to avoid the burning of billions of trees, and the consequent habitat decimation; to not recreate a primitive potash industry again [see earlier post on New England tree-burning in early America].

http://futureopportunities.blog.com/171828/
-------------------------------------------
April 15, 2005

Brazil, China and India have all simultaneously discovered a great need for potash. Bill Doyle, chief executive of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, the world's largest producer of potash, told shareholders in the 2004 annual report that:

[Paragraph broken apart to emphasize--BS]
++++++++
the upside of potash [potassium source-K-an alkali metal] is even higher than the other two key nutrients in fertilizer - nitrogen [N], and phosphates [phosphorus source-P].
+++++++

Farmers have been skimping on potash, and now China needs to double its ration to catch up the U.S., while Brazil needs another 50 per cent to compete with U.S. yields of soybeans in particular.
---------------------------
EDIT: IMO, I think people are drastically underestimating the postPeak importance of water and fertilizers: Please Wiki, "War of the Pacific" to see what countries did to gain access to NPK for fertilizers and explosives before the discovery of fossil fuels, or reread my earlier post on this topic. Thxs!

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Hello TODers,

If I was an expert bat-biologist: I would be going apeshit to quickly setup a North American franchise operation on renewable [biosolar mindset] batshit shelters to help support relocalized permaculture. The ERoEI of batcrap to FF-fertilizers needs to be expertly analyzed, IMO.

Have you priced guano lately? A repost below:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2268/158584
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Yesterday's Drumbeat had quite a subthread on organic vs FF farming. Below is a repost of a Jan. 24 posting that got no comments at that time. Could batshelters be the key to drastically raising organic yields?

Hello TODers,

In the recent natgas keythread: I posted again how we should be using natgas to stockpile fertilizer to help us bridge to relocalized permaculture. If this isn't done, I hope, at a minimum, we can go back to the future:

-----------------------------------------------------
What would the reader think, if he were asked to invest in a gold mine from which all of the ore had been taken out, and, at the end of a year, it had all replaced itself? What would he think, if he had, attached to his mercantile establishment, a warehouse in which, as fast as the goods were removed for display and sale, they would replace themselves without the expenditure on his part of one grain of energy or one cent in money!
------------------------------------------------------
EDIT: to make link below activated [Please see photos!]

http://www.soilandhealth.org/03sov/0302hsted/030212campbell/campbell%201...

I was astounded by the amount harvested. Are there any TOD biologists that care to comment? A postPeak future with very little FF-pesticide will require lots of bats to keep the bugs at bay.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Hi Bob Shaw,
The problem with storing natural gas as fertilizer is that the ammonia plants have mostly moved overseas in search of cheap gas.
Don't worry, nobody's going to flare gas. Its illegal, as well as economicially wasteful. What the pipelines will do is pro-rate how much gas a producer can sell, forcing them to shut in wells in accordance with the shut in provisions of the leases. All oil and gas leases have shut in provisions, gas has mostly been in surplus in the US. I'm a landman, we buy oil leases, this is in my area of professional expertise.

I like the bat farm idea. However, I'll bet the neighbors would complain a lot less with a worm farm, and worm castings are high dollar. Worms are high protein and can also be used in aquaculture as fish food or sold for bait. It might make a real commercial operation for a small farmer.
Bob Ebersole

Does the bat poop actually work any better than bird poop?

I think the difference is the lack of nitrogen leaching caused by the critters pooping in the dry. So a barn roost for swifts etc. would work as well.

Most of the huge deposits in places like Chile were made economically exploitable by steam power in the C19th have been used up, and what remains will be small beer. I would have bat roosts anyway, but I would for resilience' sake try to spread increased fertility across as many sources as possible.

Hello Oilmanbob and Lantern Rouge,

Thxs for responding. Good points by both of you,thxs. Worms and composting are good, but they don't eat the flying critters, and most birds poop everywhere. Yep, keeping any natural fertilizer free from water is the secret to reduce nitrogen leaching. We need 'em all; as many species as possible from extinction to optimize the decline: worms, birds for daylight, bats for night-time; the Circle of Life.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Interesting thought. Homemade bat roosts or bat boxes look pretty easy to build. Not much more than a couple of boards with a bat-width space in between and a little roof overhead. Maybe you rout some horizontal grooves on the interior boards to give the bats something to grab on to? Here's a link for one set of plans I have found, a Google will find you more:

http://www.dnr.state.wi.us/org/land/er/publications/bats/PDFs/BatHouseDi...

I suppose one could very easily set these things up over one's compost bin so that the droppings just go directly into the compost. That would keep the droppings from accumulating, assuming you turn your compost occasionally (and will thus keep down the smell) and it would also massively increase the fertilizer value of the compost. Plus that would eliminate any extra shoveling on one's part.

There are some do's and don'ts regarding bat house management - this link has all the good info:

http://www.batmanagement.com/Batcentral/batboxes/whyfail.html

Hmmm.... I wonder whether bags of fertilizer would be good to 'stockpile' as a personal asset? That would be something one could potentially always trade to those who wish to grow food, and yet not necessarily be something that would be pilfered by thieves. Hmmm.

I would be careful stockpiling fertilizer.

google Timothy McVay

until they get 'et or wet or greenish.

Hello Greenish,

Possibly consider stockpiling bird & bat guano: besides NPK, it also has the other essential minerals for enhancing plant growth and avoiding some unforseen mineral Liebig Minimum to curtail efficient photosynthesis. Might be the best way to avoid being labeled another Timothy McVay too. I am no chemist, but if kept dry: it might not degrade anywhere near as fast as FF-fertilizers. My feeble two cents from a woeful city-boy from the Asphalt Wonderland.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Phosphate would also make a great trade item, as would potash. Or just a premixed balanced fertilizer, like 20-20-20. If I wanted to keep fertilizer, I suggest plastic bags or 5 gallon pvc buckets, the paper bags would get brittle or soggy from humidity.

There is a USDA County Agent office in most of the country. They have arial photos to scale, and will do soil analysis to determine whats the best soil amendments to your garden. They're not free, but damn sure worth the low cost-maybe $20 a sample. They will tell you if you need sulfur to correct the PH, or crushed lime, or micro nutrients. The County agent can give advice as to what varieties do well in your area, all kinds of useful help. in Galveston County they even offer low cost classes and organise plant sales for stuff like citrus or fig trees.
Bob Ebersole

Hello Oilmanbob,

My guess is guano, because it contains a broad mixture of minerals besides NPK, would need chemical processing and inputed energy to separate the desired molecules to make explosives. In other words: it is naturally at an energy entropy level best suited for plant growth; it takes alot of work to refine into the separate chems to support warfare. In short: guano properly used minimizes violence, and optimizes the drive to relocalized permaculture.

Please read my new post at the very bottom of this Drumbeat.

Edit: Oops! use control F, then venture capital to find it. not quite at the very bottom.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Fertilizer does not have a good shelf life. In general, last year's purchase is not worth spreading on your plot of ground.

Nate, the S&P 500 plunged 2.66% on Friday! The S&P has plunged 7.5 percent since July 19th. Falling that far in that short a time is called a plunge by most market analysts. Google "market plunges" or "stocks plunge" and you will see what I mean. (The S&P 500 is a far better indicator of what the market is really doing than the Dow.)

A 10% drop is what most analysts look for before they call it a major correction. However such a correction normally takes several months.

Yes, a major recession, if it happens, will definitely create demand destruction and a drop in oil prices. However that may be what we are seeing right now. Oil prices this high is bount to have a dramatic effect on the economy, sooner or later. That is what we are seeing right now may be the effect of two years of very high oil prices. However everything affects everything else. It is hard to tell the chicken from the egg.

Ron Patterson

True but the SP was UP about 1% for the week going into Friday.
And I totally agree with the rest of your comments. Except we will know the egg when we see it..;)

jbunt

Ron

You are right!! Same as 1987, when on Monday, Oct 27th, Dow was down 508 points or 22.6% in one day. Oh wait - correct that - you were referencing a one day PLUNGE of 2.66% - I missed the decimal place.

There is an article about credit on DailyKos and the Germans are saying its worse than 1931.

I want to hide under the bed, but there isn't enough room to open the laptop there.

Does anyone think the stock market plunge that we had this past week is anything investors should be worried about?

Obviously it's worrysome, even to non-investors like me. Only the most die hard jaw boner can keep on cheerleading this market on, (and those with the a lot to lose). But I think it will take a while for all the bullish sentiment to shake out. And it depends on how the Fed decides to deal with it. So there are still at least a few days of 100 DOW points to the upside.
Right now, the market appears to be counting on a rate cut later this year or some sentiment from the Fed in that direction to maintain orderly markets.
I think the market is at a wobbly teeter top that most likely will head south, except for the possibility that so much will be done to prop things up because so much is at stake. But ulitmately, if the housing and credit collapses follow thru, so goes the economy and the Fed may be able to slow the descent and cushion the bottom, but it's still down hill for the foreseable future.
So investors need to beware of getting suckered back in to the market and getting whipsawed on intraday volotility.
IMO, there is a lot of hot air and smoke spewed out by the financial industry and most of it is designed to further their own positions. It's their job to go out and talk the last sucker into putting his money in on an uptick and then yank the floor out from under him, only to turn around and do it again the next day.
IMO, the one true best time to buy is when there is so much fear in the market that it seems crazy to buy. But not many have the stomach or guts to do that.

-Don

A rate cut would help two areas:
1. Real estate market. Access to debt would be eased by lower rates. Could slow the descent a bit.
2. Easier access to debt for corporations. $60 billion in financing deals have collapsed since June 22 (46 deals failed). Last year zero deals failed. Debt is getting harder to finance, lower rates really help here.

A rate cut would help home owners and corporations. That's a win-win.

However, a rate cut would lead to more inflation. And the dollar has been weakening, it fell considerably yesterday.

We're between a rock and a hard place.

I look at what are foreign investors willing to get for their return on invested money on our debt with a falling dollar. I don't think they can cut rates IMHO.

If we don't go inflation it will be all out free fall in several market sectors and a probable weakening confidence in the USD.

I already locked myself in when gold hit 660 last week or so

If inflation picks up, gold goes up, if USD drops, gold goes up.

I figure its the best option now. but at 673 it's already started a rise. This coupled with most people not having a good handle on the oil industry (last I checked the gold/oil ratio was ~8.5 and is typically 10-20). The reason for the strong concordance between the price of gold and oil is because oil is an input into gold mining! (considering that 0.5 ppm is profitable gold ores... a lot of refining needs to be done.)

Gold price increases also tend to lag behind oil price spike,

i figure long shorts are out of the question now. but at the end of this ima pick up a ton of semiconductor stock and silicon manufacturing, wind, and nuclear.

jturpin:- The Fed rate directly affects only very short term rates. Real estate and company borrowing is always intermediate to long term, and these rates can remain quite a bit higher than short. However, it might help psychologically for awhile.

-
James Gervais
Hope was the last evil to escape Pandora's box.

I see it as a response to the short term outlook - profitable - versus the long term inevitability posed by consumer debt and asset valuation decline. There is no room for real estate to go up and no way for consumer debt to go down, so the market can't really expect any upside. However, corporate profitability keeps dropping those pesky P:E ratios.

This is a situation in which the parasite is doing well but the host is in serious trouble. While market crashes have big press, the majority of stocks didn't move much, if at all. You can expect that 5% of any stock at any time is froth, and that the lurking bargain hunters will kick in if Acme Nut and Bolt goes much lower - because it wasn't overvalued in the first place.

Huge and permanent crashes have usually entailed wacky P:E ratios like 35:1 dropping back to normal as they did in Japan in the late 80s. Despite the Anderson accounting, today's P:Es look pretty normal and boring. There's still enough money looking for a home out there that the market won't fall below 12K which, if you factor in inflation that isn't supposed to be there but is, makes this market equivalent to a Dow of 8000 maybe six years back.

What has happened is the wage shortfall versus inflation. How long corporate America can keep running these profit margins in the face of negative wage gains [in international currency terms] is the gamble. Time to short the long?