The Oil Drum

Latest(10PM CDT) forcast track shows projected direct hit on Cantarell 7PM Tuesday.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/203526.shtml?3day#con...

What are the odds of a DIRECT HIT on Canterell at the worst possible time for the US?? Canterell may not recover. Why rebuild it if its in terminal decline? Just let whatever's left get the oil out at whatever rate it can....

Let's see here....2005 GOM oil production smashed, yet to recover fully....now Mex production smashed......Me thinks the odds are tooooo great for this to be coincidence..

From the NHC forecast update (02:25 EDT):

DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF HURRICANE
DEAN IS NOW 909 MB...26.84 INCHES.

As if things could not get worse...

From the 2 am NHC advisory:
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...18.5 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB.

Since then, Dean has continued to intensify, with a pressure of 909 mb just measured - the 9th lowest ever measured in the Atlantic basin. Landfall is imminent.

If we assume the worst and there is heavy damage on the rigs (I sincerely hope that there won't be any damage), what kind of repair timeframe could we be looking at? I mean how long do repairs on these things usually take?

Ignore me if this is too speculatory.

Hurricane Dean is really something. It made landfall a little before 8am GMT as a cat 5 – the first Atlantic basin storm to do so in 15 years since Andrew in 1992. The minimum pressures are likely to make this a “10 ten” storm. Who knows what’ll happen over the next 12 hours as it transverses the peninsula but seeing as the oil infrastructure is right on the forecast path and the storm made landfall as powerful as it did and is moving quite fast I’d say this is as bad as it could be for Cantarell and KMZ.

Hello TODers,

I sure hope they keep flying those Hurricane Hunter planes into Dean to fully instrument the 'cane crossing the Yucatan. I am insanely curious to see if Dean intensifys over land like Andrew '92 did in FL, and how far it gets before it starts to lose strength and intensity. Then if it does any re-intensification before clearing the Yucatan, then finally how much and how quickly it re-intensifies before it hits Cantarell & KMZ. Time will tell soon.

If the eastern landfall is just North of Chetumal: the storm surge of 12-18 ft, plus waves on top, plus 5,10,20 inches of rain could really saturate this area with warm water to further power the 'cane. As can be seen by this maplink:

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.vivanatura.org/Yucmap3...

and a better geological relief map here:

http://ambergriscaye.com/pages/town/mapreliefbay.html

On the Eastern side: there is a huge estuary or bay that can can be overrun by this surge and then the seawater can be pushed quite a bit further inland if the surrounding land is under 20 ft above mean sea-level. Could this be miles inland? The cane rotational winds will fill this bio-reserve with stormsurge and the escape route for this water will probably down thru Chetumal Bay, instead of a quick flowback to the sea. My guess is that this storm surge will also be encountering huge floods of warm rainwater flowing down from higher locations. All potential fuel for the storm as the winds whip the heat out of these frothy, foaming waters. Not as good as hot, deepwater ocean, but it might be sufficient enough to keep Dean from degrading in intensity and size quickly on the overland traverse.

Notice from the map that a similar bay or estuary exists on the western side where Dean will be exiting into BoC. This can be another source of heat to help keep Dean strong over its land traverse if the feeder bands or eyeball bands can extract any energy from this area before finally clearing into the GoM proper.

Of course, the biggest factor is Dean's areal size. Does it have the 'oceanic suckage' to keep sufficiently sized feeder bands and eyeball bands pumping energy into the 'cane as it traverses land? From the latest satellite-animation maps showing Dean just offshore: by my eyeballing Dean appears big enough to basically fill the land traverse with the eyewall outer bands, and the feeder bands swirling in from the GoM, Yucatan Slot, and the Caribbean seem to be long and thick. All good signs to help Dean slowly degrade instead of petering out over the Yucatan. I am still speculating CAT 3 at Cantarell/KMZ, but I sure wish I could find a highly detailed topographical map of Dean's Yucatan traverse path.

Feel free to refute or embellish as desired, my fellow TODers.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE. THE 906 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF 1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO. DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF 1992.

Just browsed the mainstream media reports on Dean. They are reassuring investors that Dean will do minimal damage to Mexico's oil fields but say nothing of the lost oil production off the world market.

Those poor people in Quintana Roo. Its one of the very poorest parts of Mexico, very Indian, subsistance farmers and fishermen.

www.weatherunderground.com predicts that it will emerge as a category 2. The older platforms likely will have some damage, the most destructive may be to the pipelines. i doubt they are buried very deep in the bay mud, and if they are broken all the wells further out will be offline reguardless of whether the rigs are damaged

Most of the offshore workers likely live in areas which are being heaily affected with rain and winds near the bay of Campeche, the roads may not be passable for them to get to the boats to get them back to the rigs before Thursday or Friday, and the same with the seamen on the crewboats. We won't have any real idea about the true damage until early next week.

After Rita we had shortages of gasoline for a couple of days in the Houston area. There was no damage or electricity shortages, but all the tank truck drivers had evacuated with their families in the runaway scrape of an evacuation, plus the refinery workers to put the gasoline in the trucks. And I expect they will have the same in the Campeche area. You can expect those men to take care of their families firstbefore they get back to work, so it will be early next week before they get out there and survey the damage.