DrumBeat: August 23, 2007

Fuel price policy explodes in Myanmar

Public protests have broken out across Myanmar's old capital Yangon after the military government unexpectedly removed fuel-price subsidies, resulting in a 500% spike in rationed fuel prices.

The shock policy is part of the government's emerging economic and financial reform program and notably coincided with a high-level mission to the country of International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank officials, who have long pressed the junta to reduce or abolish a range of price subsidies.

Change in hottest year fuels global warming skeptics

A tweak to NASA’s record shows that 4 of the 10 warmest years in the USoccurred during in the 1930s, not more recently. Climate change deniers say this points out that concern over global warming is unfounded.


South African state may demand first pick of uranium

South Africa may compel local miners to first offer uranium to the state to feed the country's expanding nuclear energy programme, a senior official said on Wednesday.

The government announced this month it would ramp up use of nuclear energy as it moves to meet fast-growing demand for power, using the country's large resources of uranium.


Blackout threat looms over Tokyo as Japan turns up the air-con

The Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) was forced to take emergency power-cutting measures yesterday to prevent the Japanese capital plunging into blackout amid a nuclear energy shortage and a record heat wave.


China Courts Turkmens As Russian Gas Sputters

China is hedging against a slow-going Russian gas deal by aggressively pushing for imports from Turkmenistan, which could force Moscow to accept Beijing's price demands or watch its Asian strategy unravel.


The Oil of Gazprom to Spread Throughout Asia

In an effort to conquer retail markets of CIS, Gazprom Neft has incorporated subsidiaries in Kazakhstan and Tadjikistan. In the long term, the company intends to promote the chains of fuel stations there, though its today’s business is limited to wholesale trading in crude oil. The analysts say this move of Gazprom Neft is well-timed; the low-octane gasoline that Gazprom Neft will supply to Central Asia is becoming less popular in Russia.


Analysis: Kurd oil law drives Iraq oil

Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government will not wait for a federal oil law before it starts signing more contracts to explore what is thought to be sizeable reserves in its territory. The KRG has already signed a handful of contracts with small oil companies and, now that it has passed a regional law governing any underground oil and natural gas, it will not put development on hold while Baghdad implodes.


Western oil major’s bid marks breakthrough for troubled Iraqi industry

The prospects for Kurdish oil were given a boost yesterday when DNO, a Norwegian explorer, said that a big oil company had offered $700 million (£351 million) for its licence in Kurdistan.


Jordan to resume importing Iraqi oil

Jordan's energy minister said Thursday his country expects to resume Iraqi oil imports in the coming days, ending a four-year hiatus sparked by the U.S.-led war that toppled Saddam Hussein, the official Petra news agency reported.

Khaled al-Shraydeh said the supply would eventually cover Jordan's daily need of 100,000 barrels and would be trucked across Jordan's desert border from northern oil fields in Kirkuk accompanied by Iraqi security.


Saudi Arabia is top oil supplier to China

Saudi Arabia was the top supplier of crude oil to China in July, beating Angola, Oman and Russia as the Middle Eastern country increased exports to gain from demand in the world's fastest-growing major economy.


Squeezing oil from stones

There are vast reserves of oil trapped within Alberta's rockbed - the trick is getting it out.


Research boom in Arctic village as oil reserves draw big powers

Norway is convinced the sea around Svalbard also harbours reserves of oil and gas. And as the frozen cover of ice that once protected the ocean from drill ships retreats further north - this year looks set for a record low - nations are jostling for position to exploit them. Several oil companies already sponsor research in the region.


Natural Gas Imported To US For Electricity Generation May Be Environmentally Worse Than Coal

A team of Carnegie Mellon University researchers report that the choices U.S. officials make today could limit how the nation's future energy needs are met and could cost consumers billions in idle power plants and associated infrastructure systems.

In the upcoming Sept. 1 edition of the journal Environmental Science and Technology, Carnegie Mellon researchers Paulina Jaramillo, W. Michael Griffin and H. Scott Matthews show that liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported from foreign countries and used for electricity generation could have 35 percent higher lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions than coal used in advanced power plant technologies.


Renewable power hits your wallet

If a bill that recently passed the House of Representatives becomes law, soon every American would have to pay a little extra for renewable power each month in their utility bill.

The house bill would require most utilities to get 15 percent of their power from renewable resources by 2020.


Voluntary “Carbon Offsetting” As Strategy For Privatizing America’s Public Lands

There is a new twist to the carbon offsetting policy that is particularly insidious in that it is linked with the loss of public ownership of America’s public domain. On July 25, 2007, the U.S. Forest Service announced a “Carbon Capital Fund” that would allow one to “offset” personal CO2 emissions by purchasing vouchers, the cash then being applied to tree planting in national forests. The Service has a website at which a well-intentioned citizen can determine one’s annual “carbon footprint”, which the Service reports to be, on average, 10.73 metric tons. At $6 per ton, that would indicate an annual individual “investment” in the Fund of $64.38. In other words, the U.S. Forest Service is seeking voluntary donations from citizens for “management” that for generations has been paid for by taxes.


Mining the Moon

At the 21st century's start, few would have predicted that by 2007, a second race for the moon would be under way. Yet the signs are that this is now the case. Furthermore, in today's moon race, unlike the one that took place between the United States and the U.S.S.R. in the 1960s, a full roster of 21st-century global powers, including China and India, are competing.

Even more surprising is that one reason for much of the interest appears to be plans to mine helium-3--purportedly an ideal fuel for fusion reactors but almost unavailable on Earth--from the moon's surface.


Fertiliser rise blamed on biofuel

The global rush to grow biofuels has raised fertiliser prices for Kiwi farmers by up to 80 per cent in the past two months.


In Iran, living in the moment

Vacationing families put a dent in their gas rations, raising fears of chaos when the initial six-month allotments are depleted.


Analysis: Iranian gas policy attacked

Iran's influential Research Centre of Parliament has said that potential gas exports ‘are 10 years away’, while a former oil minister claims that the current policy will lead to a ‘catastrophe’, in a weekend of unusually candid challenges to government policies.


Nigeria: African giant continues to stagger

Households have proved especially vulnerable. This summer, for instance, the ubiquitous fuel shortage was exacerbated by a general strike. Families were forced to seek gasoline for their generators on the black market, an action best done during the middle of the night and in out-of-the-way locations. The time and energy this required made it as impractical as it was dangerous.

Worse, costs soared. A single family, were it fortunate to own a generator and be able to locate a steady stream of fuel to operate it 24 hours a day for a year, would spend upwards of $7,200 -- that's 10 times Nigeria's per capita annual income.

No wonder Nigerians do without power most of the time.


Oman offers gas in exchange for coal

Gas-starved India has received an offer from the government of Oman that should be hard to say no to: gas, in exchange for coal.


Caspian Sea States to Hold October Talks in Tehran

Leaders of the five states bordering the energy-rich Caspian Sea will meet for a summit in Tehran in October to discuss long-running disputes over maritime rights, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said.


Energy crisis costs Dominican taxpayers US$2B, solutions still sought

Electricity superintendent Francisco Méndez said yesterday the electrical sector’s crisis is such a political and economic burden that in the last three years has cost the Dominican taxpayers US$2.0 billion in subsidies. He said that’s the reason the Government continues to seek a definitive solution to its financial difficulties.


Pollution Fight Pits Illinois vs. BP, Indiana

WHITING, Ind. -- A proposal to allow BP to greatly increase the amount of pollutants it discharges into Lake Michigan from its refinery here has prompted a bitter war of words between officials in Illinois and Indiana.

...At issue is a plan by BP to upgrade its oil refinery in northwest Indiana to increase the amount of heavy crude oil from the Canadian province of Alberta that it can refine at its Whiting plant. To help, state regulators have granted the company a permit allowing it to dump 50 percent more ammonia and 35 percent more suspended solids into Lake Michigan.


Ethanol nation: Brazil finds energy freedom with sugar-based fuel

Many see Brazil as a model for America's transition from an economy dependent on foreign oil to one based on several alternative fuels, including ethanol. But while Brazil is a laboratory for U.S. automakers and a case study for policymakers, its embrace of ethanol is the result of very different historic, political and agricultural realities.


Ghana: More Oil!

Ghana may have had a debilitating "energy crisis" this year, but portends in the energy sector are getting ever more bright.

Barely a month ago, substantial oil deposits were discovered in the country's territorial waters, and even before the excitement associated with that find has died down, another find is being announced.


Elderly scrimp to get by

OLDER South Australians cannot afford a healthy diet and are reluctant to use their electric and gas heating because of the cost, a parliamentary inquiry has heard.

...Carers SA, in its submission to the inquiry, says rising energy costs are a key concern.

Electricity price increases had led to "desperate measures", including cutting back on heating and cooling and showering less, the organisation says.


Jeremy Leggett: Summoning the will to tap our solar brilliance

What are hot, good-looking, born in Australia and about to make a lot of people very rich in China? Answer: many of the solar cells in production today. The solar photovoltaics business is one of the fastest-growing global industries. Over the past two years many billions of investment dollars have flowed into it.


Netherlands: Car sharing slowly gaining popularity

High monthly costs and parking problems are increasing the popularity of car sharing, especially in the Randstad, the densely populated western part of the Netherlands. While car sharing used to be something for idealists and counterculturalists, today also businessmen and lawyers get into a car that they don't own exclusively.


Fuel cells in your future

Does the future of energy lie in fuel cells? You might think so, based on what chemists have cooked up for this week’s annual meeting of the American Chemical Society. One team has come out with a pellet system that could open the way for safe and easy hydrogen-based fuel, while another has developed a battery-scale fuel-cell system that capitalizes on, um, the microbes in a cow’s guts. Such technologies could provide less smelly alternatives to the poop-fueled systems that are already belching out power today.


E-Flex Electric Vehicle System

The vehicles using this technology will be all electricity-driven. But the beauty of the E-flex systems lies in the fact that electricity will not only be produced from regenerative braking and other mechanical means, but through the use of different types of fuels. These fuels would be used to generate electricity which would charge a Lithium battery pack that would help run the car on electricity.


British Airways guilty on conspiracy charges

Representatives of British Airways pleaded guilty to two counts of conspiracy for colluding with rival Virgin Atlantic over fuel surcharges on international flights. The pleas are likely to bring a $300 million fine.


Peak Moment: The Social Effects of Peak Oil

How will rising oil prices affect low- and middle-class lives? Sociologist and professor Rowan Wolf sees at-risk populations growing while government services and class divides are increasingly strained. A member of the Portland Peak Oil Task Force, she discusses relocalizing our economies, to counter globalization based on an unsupportable grow-or-die economic model.


The OneWorldTV Richard Heinberg Interview

The catastrophic effects of declining oil supplies: journalist and author Richard Heinberg discusses the true consequences of 'peak oil'. In this interview, filmed by our friends at Spanner Films (McLibel, Drowned Out, Baked Alaska), Heinberg makes clear the fundamental nature of oil as the bedrock of modern civilisation and the devastating impact our dependency upon it will have as global supplies start to dwindle.


Dale Allen Pfeiffer: A Closer Look at Escape From Suburbia

I was asked to review Escape from Suburbia, the latest effort by the team that made The End of Suburbia. Now, I could have offered up a bit of saccharine dripping prose and let it go at that. It would have pleased everyone connected with the film without making waves. But it would not be honest. It is too late in the game to simply go on pleasing people. It is time to be honest, even if it hurts.


The X Factor: Economic Recession Is the IT Innovator's Ally

If you believe that we are right now at or near global peak oil production, then we are in for a humungous economic shock. It is hard to say how big, but in January 2007 dollars, oil peaked at over $100 per barrel in December 1979, and the current oil price is hovering around $72 a barrel as I write this, after hitting $78 a barrel at the end of July, when the mortgage nonsense first started dominating the news. We still have a ways to go before oil is as expensive as it was in 1979, which is good. But if a recession starts because inflation jumps, the stock markets crash, oil prices spike because of conflicts in the Middle East, or more hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico, then we can probably expect a phase change in IT to our list of predictions on the coming years.


Shanghai Cooperation for Oil

A colleague of mine once suggested that I write a book called “Stuff that Stinks.” It’s not because I’m an olfactory snob, but because I find it hard to smell the rosy side of what most people call “progress.” I find international energy to be particularly malodorous business.


Eni Says Evaluating Kazakh Govt Environmental Complaint

Italy's Eni SpA (E) Wednesday said that the consortium that it leads to operate the giant Kashagan offshore oil field has been notified by the Kazakh Environment Ministry of alleged environmental violations by the consortium there. Eni is evaluating the complaint, the company added.

Press reports Tuesday said the Kashagan project, which has already faced several delays and cost overruns, might be halted due to the alleged environmental violations.


Midwest, move over: Ga. joins the ethanol gold rush

Looking out at a mound of tree tops, limbs and leaves just discarded from a harvest of 45-foot high pines, Devon Dartnell sees fuel, lots of it, to run Georgia's 8 million vehicles.

"See this?" he asks, pointing to rotted trees and scattered underbrush on a 300-acre tree farm. "This is very usable for biofuels."


Dropping your load to reduce your carbon footprint

Demonstrating their serious concern about climate change, Americans have largely embraced the conservation ethic as a means of reducing their personal "carbon footprint" or greenhouse-gas pollution. It is not enough, however, just to conserve scarce resources such as electricity. When the electricity is used is equally important as how much is used, in order to avoid blackouts and minimize the need to bring more power plants on line.


Dave Cohen: Immunize Yourself Against Future Hype

It almost goes without saying that a genius for technology is a large part of human nature. Everyday life offers the proof. We have automobiles, the internet, gene splicing, cell phones—you name it! When ExxonMobil tells us that oil production shows no sign of a peak because miraculous new technologies will step in to save the day, most people have no trouble believing it.
Moreover, new technologies — such as multidimensional mapping tools and advanced drilling techniques — have improved our ability to recover oil from previously discovered fields. Because of such technology gains, estimates of how much recoverable oil remains have consistently increased over time. Oil production and production capacity have increased, too. So there is a lot of oil yet to be tapped. And we are getting better — technically and environmentally — at tapping it everyday.
Does ExxonMobil's argument hold water? Answering that question requires examining the pace and nature of technological change both inside and outside the oil & gas industry.


Angola to stay free of OPEC output constraints

OPEC's newest member Angola is likely to stay free of the group's output constraints so long as oil prices remain strong, giving the country scope for its plans to launch several oilfields in coming months.


Oversupply still hurting oil producers in Rockies

Rocky Mountain oil producers are still smarting from an 18-month supply glut that has left their petroleum priced well below national averages.

Rising imports of oil from Canadian tar sands, increased domestic production and a series of refinery shutdowns have left the Rockies awash in crude.


Shrinking supply of Venezuelan oil to the US

Venezuela provided the United States with an average of 1.31 million bpd of crude oil and byproducts in June, a drop of 202,000 bpd, or 13.2 percent, compared with May, reported the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy.


Oil shortfall hits rebuilding in South Sudan

Lower than expected oil exports this year have left the government of South Sudan struggling to find cash for urgently needed infrastructure development following years of conflict, officials said.

...A World Bank-led report obtained by Reuters blamed the sharp fall in exports in part on problems finding a market for Sudan's new acidic Dar blend crude, which was discounted early in 2007.


Minister: Colombia Self-Sufficient Thru 2014

Colombia will be able to supply itself with oil through 2014, three years longer than previously forecast, mining and energy minister Hernan Martinez Torres said.

The country extended its oil self-sufficiency from 2011 by increasing proven reserves 9%. Production averaged 527,000b/d in 2006 and 520,800b/d in the first half of 2007.


As Oil Revenues Boom, Islamic Banking Goes Global

Caribou Coffee, the second-largest U.S. java seller, seems at first blush like a fairly ordinary American company. The chain was founded in 1992 in the small town of Edina, Minn., the brainchild of idealistic newlyweds, and has since expanded to over 400 coffeehouses in 18 states. Caribou's menu is muffins and lattes -- not an Arabic coffee in sight. It may come as a surprise, then, to know that Caribou Coffee is "Shariah compliant," one of the largest American businesses to run its operations in accordance with Islamic law.


Biofuels criticism ignores wider picture

...Any debate over the merits of biofuels versus reforestation or any other land use must take into account a lot more than the straight carbon impact – even when climate change is the major concern. There are a host of social and other environmental considerations that just can’t be separated out, just a few of which are outlined below. We also take issue with the cursory treatment in some media reporting of the study that seems to take its findings as invalidating all production of biofuels.


No Mexican oil damage reported from Dean

Hurricane Dean flooded a major Mexican oil city Wednesday, but there was no known damage to any of the country's production facilities on shore or in the Gulf of Mexico, the state-owned company said.


The Peak Oil Crisis: Hurricanes and Meltdowns

Earlier this week Hurricane Dean slammed into the Yucatan peninsula and crossed over into the Bay of Campeche where some 1.5 million of the 10 million barrels the U.S. imports every day are produced. While it is too early for a full damage assessment, at best a few days of production will be lost and possibly quite a bit more if any of the production platforms, pipeline systems and nitrogen injection facilities have been damaged.

This suggests that U.S. imports will be less than normal over the next few weeks. While some of these imports might be made up by increased shipments from other countries, the tight overall oil market suggests that this will be difficult.


Uganda, Congo Presidents to Hold Talks Over Border Dispute

The presidents of Congo and Uganda will hold talks in early September to resolve the border dispute over the Lake Albert valley where extensive oil exploration is taking place, the chief executive officer of the state-run Uganda Media Centre told Dow Jones Newswires Wednesday.


Chad agrees to oil revenue transparency

The government of Chad said Thursday it will adhere to a program designed to put pressure on countries to be open about revenues from exports of oil, natural gas and minerals.


Oil Workers Call Off Indefinite Strike at State-Run Oil Companies

Officers of public sector oil companies in India have called off their indefinite strike pressing for higher wages and there will therefore be no disruption in the operations of state-run oil companies.


Global warming to decimate China's harvests

Global warming is set to cut China's annual grain harvest by up to 10 percent by 2030, placing extra burden on its shrinking farmland, state press reported Thursday.


GM cuts production at pickup and SUV plants

General Motors Corp (GM.N) has cut production at six plants that make large pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles as a weak housing market, higher gasoline prices and tough competition have hurt sales, a spokesman said on Wednesday.


South Korea sets up greenhouse gas fund

South Korea said Thursday it has set up a 200-billion-won (212 million dollar) fund to cut greehouse gas emissions blamed for global warming.

The fund will finance projects to reduce carbon dioxide emissions such as solar energy and waste heat recovery projects, said Cho Seok, head of the energy and resources policy bureau at the energy ministry.


Sea Rise Seen Outpacing Forecasts Due To Antarctica

A thaw of Antarctic ice is outpacing predictions by the UN climate panel and could in the worst case drive up world sea levels by 2 metres (6 ft) by 2100, a leading expert said on Wednesday.

Millions of people, from Bangladesh to Florida and some Pacific island states, live less than a metre above sea level. Most of the world's major cities, from Shanghai to Buenos Aires, are by the sea.

Chris Rapley, the outgoing head of the British Antarctic Survey, said there were worrying signs of accelerating flows of ice towards the ocean from both Antarctica and Greenland with little sign of more snow falling inland to compensate.

Graphics Help Needed

Ed Tennyson and I have developed a list of all viable Urban Rail Projects in the Washington DC Metro area. The list below is transcribed from his hand written notes and is awaiting correction.

I would like to show three slides from this at ASPO-Houston and elsewhere; A blank map of DC, current DC Metro lines and a map with these new lines.

I could do it myself, but I estimate that it would take me 40 hours (I am NOT skilled) to do this (I did a comparable map of New Orleans). I do not have that much time ATM and am looking for a volunteer. My email is in my profile.

Knowledge of the DC area would be helpful.

1) Dulles Metro Silver Line to Leesburg - 29 miles $5.6 billion (up from 23 miles $5 billion
2) Purple Light Rail Bethesda to New Carrollton - 15 miles $1.5 billion
3) Columbia Pike - Crystal City-Skyline-Tyson’s Corner – 5+ miles $200+ million
4) Capital Cities Light Rail - Shady Grove to Fredrick - 30 miles $1 billion
5) Centreville Light Rail - Vienna, Manassas, Dulles - 20 miles $800 million
6) Richmond Hwy Light Rail - Huntington-Metro-Ft. Belvoir-Springfield Metro- 15 miles $500 million
7) VA Beltway Light Rail - Springfield-Tyson's Corner - 12 miles $450 million
8) Anacostia Light Rail - Bollin Field to Minnesota Ave Metro Station - 9 miles $300 million
9) H Street DC Light Rail - Minnesota Ave to New Jersey & Florida Avenues
10) Georgetown Subway - Bethesda-Georgetown @ Wisconsin (reroute Red Line for 2 stations and use 2 current Red Line stations in new subway)-P Street-Union Station -7.5 ? miles - $1.8 billion (a new line developed by Ed (80%) & I (20%))
11) Red Light Rail in Baltimore - Charles Center to Social Security (?) - 8 miles $350 million
12) Electrify Railroad - Union Station & Landow(?) to Richmond - 120 miles $750 million
13) Extend Baltimore Light Rail Cromwell to Harundle(?) & Marley - $90 million
14) Wilson Bridge Light Rail - Alexandria to B? Ave Metro Rail Station $500 million
15) Charles Gunty Light Rail - Branch Avenue to La Plata MD - $800 million

Ed also had a list of four projects to avoid, so this is not a "kitchen sink" plan with every possible option included, but one assembled with mature judgment. Raise gas to $9/gallon and those 4 projects might require further scrutiny.

Do the above and what will DC Metro VMT decline to ? Especially in an oil scarce era.

And apply to same approach across the nation.

Best Hopes for fewer VMT,

Alan

Funny postscript - Laurence Aurbach (TOD poster & TOD (Transit Orientated Development) expert) was familiar with the unit of measurement "tennyson" but though this was named for some long dead 19th Century scientist. He was floored to find that Ed is alive and kicking and that I talk with him :-)

I was just confused, that's all. Thinking of Alfred Lord Tennyson.

Not in vain the distance beacons. Forward, forward let us range
Let the great world spin for ever down the ringing grooves of change.

-- Tennyson, Locksley Hall, 1842

As a DC area resident (from memory) what do you think of the specific list ?

The Georgetown subway is de nova in it's entirety and would create a new corridor for density along P street (and to a lesser extent along Wisconsin Avenue).

Any additions, extensions or subtractions ?

Thanks,

Alan

The Columbia Pike project (3) runs from the Pentagon to Skyline, replacing a heavily used bus corridor.

http://www.piketransit.com/

It is the Dulles rail project (1) that has proposed stops in Tysons Corner. This is a split off the Orange line.

http://www.dullesmetro.com/

According to Ed, the Columbia Pike Light Rail Line should be extended past Skyline to Tyson's Corner (also served by the Metro Silver Line and Virginia Beltway Light Rail Line).

From my memory, he said that Fairfax County had not yet bought into the extension from Skyline to Tyson's Corner.

However, having two strong anchors on either end of the line (Tyson's Corner & Pentagon/Crystal City) with Metro connections at each terminus would guarantee strong ridership and high density (i.e cheap $/pax-mile).

It is part of creating a strong inter-connected web of Urban Rail.

Best Hopes for fewer VMT,

Alan

It would be nice to connect a lot of these density centers, I agree. But, I thought this was a list of likely projects in the next, say 25 years. Skyline is poorly designed but actually has quite a lot of office, residential and retail and the whole Baily's Crossroads area will redevelop as a dense node before Tyson's gets connected to this line (is my bet). Ridership will not be an issue on the Pike. The line would be replacing probably the most heavily used bus corridor in the system.

There is still unmet demand for public transport in many places. For example, the owners of much of Skyline (Vornado) runs private shuttles (although anyone can get on) on 20 minute headways from Ballston to Skyline all day due to the demand.

Also, I'll say Tysons has a long way to go before it can be a successful transit-served area. You could put the line in, but the design of the place does not support arriving by transit. You can't walk anywhere easily or comfortably. People say transit to Tyson's because the traffic is such a mess, they think that will help. But the traffic is a mess because of the

1)culture of driving,
2) large amounts of free parking
3) Everything is so spread out
4) roads have been widened making hostile walking enviro.
5) Uses are not integrated
6)... there are more variations on these themes

In short, good luck.

Although I have only been in Tyson's Corner once, I agree with your points. IMHO, Tyson's Corner would be comfortable in Phoenix. It was developed in the age of the automobile served by sprawl.

Three inter-connected transit lines will form a basis for a TOD redevelopment of the complex.

And I would hope to have all lines on the list open by 2018 to 2020. We will be deep into post-Peak Oil when the last line on this list opens, regardless of how fast we build them.

I would hope that this transit web with associated TOD would allow many the option of living w/o a car or with a single low use auto for a couple.

Best Hopes for Lower VMT,

Alan

I'm not familiar with all those areas, but I would classify into 3 tiers.

A. In DC and inner suburbs, routes that currently have enough bus ridership and population density to make rail instantly successful. In other words, the routes that are ready to go right now. Some of them have a lot of political and grassroots support and only await funding. Others face an uphill NIMBY and political battle. Ironically, some in DC might be the hardest-fought, like Wisconsin Ave.

B. Routes in outer suburbs but still in the urbanized area (here's a map of urbanized area). These would require regulatory changes and walkable TOD redevelopment to fully maximize ridership. But they could still serve as commuter stations with existing densities.

C. Routes outside the urbanized area. These are currently not viable for high ridership. They would require a political and social revolution to enable the conditions required for viability. Wholesale relocation and reconfiguration of of job centers and commercial areas to more compact, walkable patterns.

Here are my guesses about the routes with question marks:

11) Red Light Rail in Baltimore - Charles Center to Woodlawn/Security Blvd. - 8 miles $350 million
12) Electrify Railroad - Union Station & Landover to Richmond - 120 miles $750 million
13) Extend Baltimore Light Rail Cromwell to Harundale & Marley Station Mall.

There is an interesting article on the front page of today's WSJ.

German Regulator Roils Auto-Emissions Debate
Friedrich Touts Low Tech Over Alternative Fuels; A 'Tiff' Over VW's Golf

Some quotes:

At a hearing of European Union regulators last month, Mr. Friedrich, head of the transport department at Germany's Federal Environmental Agency, reported that the team had cut emissions by 25% while keeping the Golf's horsepower intact. Their trick was to reduce the car's weight by substituting a variety of commonly available parts, including some from Volkswagen's own parts bin. "We all know what to do," he says. "It's nothing magic."

"We need solutions for the next 20 years, not just dreams," Mr. Friedrich says.

But battery-powered cars are years away from mass production, and fuel-cell cars must surmount enormous practical hurdles, such as the establishment of a network of hydrogen filling stations. Producing more crop-based fuels often involves using farmland that might otherwise be used to grow food.

Some Downunder news; Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas will soon have closed both of its Australian factories due to lack of supportive government policies http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22287257-31037,00.html.
The current Howard national government
thinks the 2% renewable energy target is plenty though as in the US several States may set their own targets.

The other Vestas plant that closed was taken over by a firm that makes mining machinery. I'd argue whether or not the machines are used in coal directly that demand for iron ore, nickel or whatever is essentially driven by coal. Once again nice guys finish last.

Is a shame about manufacture closing, high energy prices and slowing economy are most likely to effect large industries that employ lots of people, and they will close. Wind turbine manufacture has the possibility to employ lots of people, its scalable and modular. We can recycled all our useless copper coins into something useful

What about a crazy idea of a wind powered wind turbine manufacturing facility?

Many studies have shown that up to 20% wind power can be added without the need to expand storage capacity much. Possibly the future will rely on IGCC coal plants being able to operate in conjunction with wind power.

Are there any geothermal experts lurking on here? A guest ed on the subject would be very useful.

If oil production rates dont decline it will all be gone within 30 years!

We can recycled all our useless copper coins into something useful

where have you been? penny's have not been made of copper for over 2 decades. just a very thin copper coating.

Even better, it is a thin copper coating over a toxic metal. One post 1982 penny can potentially kill a small child if it dissolves in his stomach.

Global warming to decimate China's harvests

Not only China's harvests, but the world's. The true tragedy of the 21st century will be our inability to feed ourselves. I doubt China will have to wait until 2030 to see a 10% fall in agricultural output, more likely by the end of the decade.

As I sit here in France - where the rain has hardly stopped for two days - and read about the disastrous and unusual weather throughout the world. I cannot help but feel we've passed some kind of tipping point. Something fundamental seems to have changed, weather patterns have altered in both hemispheres and show similarity regardless of seasonal difference between the two.

Also, changes are happening much faster than any predictions I have seen. You can almost divide official predictions by 10 to bring them in line with what's actually happening. I think we are witnessing abrupt climate change and absolutely no one is prepared for it.

Triumvirate of collapse - Economy, Ecosystem, Energy

I agree, climate change is the scariest and most intractable problem. A lot of people think it's no big deal, we'll just be growing corn in Alaska instead of Iowa. That's not how it works. Our whole system is designed to grow crops where they are being grown. It's not just temperature. Daylight length, types of seeds, soil type, rainfall patterns, etc.

And it's going to be a long time before the new weather patterns (whatever they are) are stable. I think we can expect increasingly extreme and unpredictable weather. Unpredictable weather is a farmer's nightmare.

Leanan, don't know whether you've already caught the story in one of your Drumbeats, but it's certainly indicative of the speed of change:

Arctic Ice Coverage Will Shrink to 2050 Projections… This Summer
http://www.universetoday.com/2007/08/17/arctic-ice-coverage-will-shrink-...

Here's the scary part. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that this level of ice coverage would be met in 2050. I'll say that again, Arctic ice will reach levels predicted for 2050 by the end of this summer. I wonder what the levels will be in 2050?

Triumvirate of collapse - Economy, Ecosystem, Energy

The scary thing is how quickly temperatures can change once a tipping point has been reached. Read Winds of Change by Eugene Linden for some eye-opening data on historical abrupt changes.

Santa Claus has drowned.

Aug 22-Bloomberg.

The drought in Australia is not over.

``Parts of the wheat belt are in dire straits,'' said Frank McRae, technical specialist in charge of cereals at the Department of Primary Industries. ``If we went three weeks without rain, a lot of the western wheat crop would be in trouble,'' he said in an interview. Australia is the third- largest exporter of the grain.

``This will deepen concerns over global supplies following a production decline in Europe,'' Naoyuki Omoto, director of Andre Far East Inc. in Tokyo, said by phone today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=a6C601LogqJw&refer=c...

Wheat at $7.44. Never before.

Australia is looking at back to back harvest of 10-14 million tons. Usual is 22-24.

Ouch.

I recently read Lovelocks' "Revenge of Gaia". As a well respected scientist he is pretty credible and what he predicts is absolutely mindblowing. He is convinced we have indeed passed several tipping points causing their own positive feedback loops. Extreme weather is becoming the norm. I don't know what I find scarier, PO or CC. When less and less particles pollute the atmosphere after PO( so when global dimming is reduced) I'm afraid Lovelock will prove right.

Until then I will try growing grapes, here at 53 degrees N.

"Gaia dances with Shiva" - Mike Davis, interpreting mineralogist Vernadsky.

I want to nominate that for top right rotating quotation.

cfm in Gray, ME

Or one might say, Gaia could manifest herself as Kali.

All I can say is that the oil based economy seems to have similar positive complex feedback loops and correlations as the Arctic. I would be surprised if we don't see catastrophic collapse in the coming years. Problems like this defy analysis with our current computation ability so when is hard to determine. But the events seem to have a half-life or double rate based on the intrinsic speed of the underlying processes.
The oil economy in general seems to work at a 3-6 month interval. Which gives collapse for sure within ten years but with a range from 2-10. I would be shocked if we are not living in a world undergoing massive economic depression and war ten years from now. I can only pray that its not sooner.

Memmel, what about your "pebble in the pond" model for predicting the future price of oil? What are you predicting for the near future?

Well everyone is predicting a spike later this fall this is generally unprecedented with prices dropping after summer and remaining fairly flat. This should encourage more oil for the OECD and assuming a mild winter the next pebble based spike would again be abnormal one in late winter when refineries go down for maintenance. Next summer would be the first time that WT bidding war could start between OECD countries so who knows what the price will go to. But anyway this will collapse then repeat. Its three spikes a year at for month intervals.

If I'm right then the late winter one will be particularly interesting since its normally the slowest time.

So the next spike should be Nov-Dec then again in March-April.
Then the summer spike. Basically whats happening is stock run a bit low and the rich countries have to bid up the price to out compete the poor. Then they back off for a bit.
As they get well supplied.
Price drops a bit supplies run low everyone starts bidding again.

The key though is that this summer its possible that the wealthy countries that will be fighting for oil for the first time against each other. After that its a tough call since economies will start to crumble. I think the cycle will persist regardless of price but external events because of the strain at this point could easily explode.

Needless to say from next summer on the world will be under energy strain so to speak. At some point it will break.
We will just have to see how things play out next fall/winter that when we know. Maybe economic slowdowns and impoverishment of Americans will be enough to keep oil at least reasonable. Then probably the Japanese go down then Europe then say Korea I don't know but all the major economies will be declining by 2010 at the latest.

Past next summer it really depends on how well various economies can maintain production in a 100 plus oil environment.

I think all this may influence the pattern for example say the Japanese stock market tanks in 2009 the crashing Japanese economy will pull a major importer off the market.
Leaving more for the rest. So its a bit of a game of Russian roulette in 2009. I think in America we will see a big wave of former middle class find themselves suddenly poor then we probably will muddle along till a bit later when we lose another segment to deep poverty. America is diverse enough that I think its economy will collapse in stages.

So anyway I don't think the pond model really works once economies start collapsing other factors take control.

In the use I think Real Estate Agents are the first wave :)
I bet the last guy with a job in America is a Lawyer however :(

lawyerin' is the second oldest profession, idenit ?

I bet the last guy with a job in America is a Lawyer however :(

Works for me.

:)
ROFL

I agree, climate change is the scariest and most intractable problem.

I believe there is a scarier problem.

The Late, Great American Nation

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article17348.htm

http://www.lexrex.com/enlightened/AmericanIdeal/yardstick/pr5_quotes.htm...

http://www.americancenturion.com/

Another truth respecting the vigilance with which a free people should guard their liberty, that deserves to be carefully observed, is this--that a real tyranny may prevail in a state, while the forms of a free constitution remain.

Disagree. Climate change affects the whole world, not just one country or group of countries.

A United States that is a Fascist Dictatorship WILL affect the whole world. Imagine Nazi Germany with Nuclear Weapons. (Besides, I live here, and I like to speak my mind. One of the first freedoms lost, and I don't think I'll like torture.) Just the fact that it occurs to me that quoting James Madison may get my name on a list somewhere demonstrates how much things have changed.(Paranoia may be the first sign something's wrong.)

Another truth respecting the vigilance with which a free people should guard their liberty, that deserves to be carefully observed, is this--that a real tyranny may prevail in a state, while the forms of a free constitution remain.