DrumBeat: August 22, 2007

Dean may shed light on OPEC/IEA debate

OPEC countries adamant their policies are not to blame for oil's five-year rally may feel vindicated by the energy market's response to Hurricane Dean.

OPEC has said a shortage of refining capacity to make motor fuels, particularly in top consumer the United States, has been the main driver. Crude oil supplies, it says, are ample.

Consumer nations, represented by the International Energy Agency, want OPEC to pump more oil. Otherwise, they reason, oil stocks in consumer nations are headed for steep falls.

...The reaction of the global oil market to Hurricane Dean may give some insight into how investors view the situation.

Myanmar arrests dissidents, squashes fuel protests

Myanmar's military junta arrested 13 top dissidents and deployed gangs of spade-wielding supporters on the streets of Yangon on Wednesday to halt protests against soaring fuel prices and falling living standards.

Armed police also took up positions across the country's biggest city alongside truckloads of men from the army's feared Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA). Many were carrying brooms and shovels, pretending to be road sweepers.

Despite the clampdown and the overnight arrest of the prominent activists, 100 people staged an hour-long march before being dispersed. Five women and a man were arrested, although there was no violence, witnesses told Reuters.

"Onlookers applauded but failed to join the march," one said.


Iraq: Power cuts getting worse, affecting lives

In the backyard of the house of Jassim Abdel-Rahman, a 34-year-old resident of Sadr City, a suburb of Baghdad, there are always six or so jerry cans which he refills daily with petrol for his small generator.

With less than four hours electricity a day and with a newborn baby at home, Abdel-Rahman refuses to leave his family sweltering in the hot weather so he spends at least half his US$380 monthly salary repairing and refuelling his generator.


Blackout over for Gaza as EU agrees to resume oil shipments

The European commission said it would allow the resumption of oil shipments to Gaza today after a move that left large parts of the area in darkness for four days.


India: Facing the energy crunch

The Tata Consultancy Services’ six story building in Gurgaon, Delhi, maintains five giant generators, with an underground tank of diesel of 20,000 litres. This is almost the same quantity of fuel one would find in a petrol pump. The reserve fuel can power the Tata building for up to 15 days. And power cuts average eight hours a day during shortage periods.

Perhaps the best place to look at corporate energy problems is in the heart of a company – the data centre; often a not-so-miniature metropolis of server computers that processes network transactions. As businesses grow, their data centres reach a breaking point. In most cases, computers on both ends of the network use – and waste – huge amounts of electricity.


Uganda: Electricity Prices to Drop By 50 Percent

BUJAGALI hydropower dam will cut the cost of electricity by more than half the current rate in the early stages of completion, His Highness Prince Karim Aga Khan has said.


Nigeria's Electricity Dilemma

The recurrent devastating economic and environmental impact of power black-outs, both planned and un-planned, underlines a need for urgent implementation of the long-term least cost generation expansion framework and proper maintenance of transmission and distribution networks to ensure enhanced energy supply and reliability in Nigeria.


Bazetta Twp. cuts fire station hours to save money

[Fire Chief Clyde] McKenzie said the cost of fuel and insurance has gone up, and he said the current budget doesn't allow for the high prices.


Should beach towns be rebuilt again and again?

The magnitude of Katrina's destruction — and concern that people will rebuild in the same way, in the same precarious places — have sparked calls for new regulations on a range of matters, including flood insurance and the funding of coastline restoration.

Such efforts, though, have foundered, largely over resistance from developers and politicians who fear that such changes would stem coastal development and the revenue it brings, says Oliver Houck, an environmental law professor at Tulane University.

Meantime, thanks to government help, "You'd be a fool not to live on the beach," he says. "We're building highways to them, causeways to them, sewage-treatment plants to them. We're paying their (flood) insurance to live there."


How to push the oil levers in the wrong direction

By now, it should be clear to everybody that we are facing some problem with oil production. Facing a problem, the normal reaction is to do something about it. If crude oil is becoming scarce, the first reaction often is, "where can we find more of it?"


Far north Queensland plan to include climate change forecasts

QCCCE officers are working with staff from the Department of Local Government, Planning, Sport and Recreation and Queensland Transport. The team is looking at the likely impacts of climate change and "peak oil" - or the date when the world maximum crude oil production is reached - on Far North Queensland, as well as planning adaptation strategies. This work will be of enormous benefit to local councils in particular to help them undertake proper planning.


East Woos West In Oilsands

At the height of the market meltdown last week, Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. broadcast its intention to take advantage of depressed share prices and cashed-out balance sheets to expand aggressively in Canada's energy sector, where it hopes to become one of the top-10 producers.


Maine appealing electric ratepayer fees

Representatives of the paper-products industry, unions and consumers joined Gov. John Baldacci on Tuesday in support of Maine's appeal of a federal order that imposes what they call excessive and unjust fees to help expand generating capacity in southern New England.


Will the Real Transportation Fuel of the Future Step

For macro reasons, I think that the next generation liquid fuels may be cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel or renewable diesel from algae. But those fuels will increasingly be sharing the roads with the long term transportation fuel of the future: electricity from renewable sources, especially wind. Wind will be important for electric transportation and electric transportation will be important for wind because, when you're already going to be charging batteries, you may as well do it when the electricity is cheap, which will be when the wind is blowing.


Black Swans: Highly Improbable Events in the Investment World

That is why we try and focus on Black Swans in the investment world. You can read the newspaper to find out what happened yesterday. We try to focus on the events considered so statistically improbable that no major analyst would take them seriously. Most of these Black Swans have negative consequences, like Peak Oil… or a housing crash… or the collapse of the U.S. dollar. The history of financial markets shows that high-impact events are much more probable than statistical models would indicate.


Sony champions free recycling

The company that invented the CD, the Walkman and the PlayStation will soon become an environmental pioneer, too: Sony says it will offer free recycling of all its products in the United States.


Gas station owners allege price fixing

Nearly two dozen gas station owners in California sued Shell Oil Co., Chevron Corp. and Saudi Refining Inc., on Tuesday, claiming the companies conspired to fix prices for 23,000 franchise owners nationwide.

The case filed in U.S. District Court in San Francisco seeks class-action status for the plaintiffs. It is similar to another lawsuit filed in 2004 by other California gas station owners that was thrown out by the U.S. Supreme Court last year. The new group of plaintiffs hopes the court will consider a slightly different argument.


Dean Only Seen Causing Mild Disruptions to Mexico Oil Ops

As Hurricane Dean heads into Mexico's main oil-producing zone, industry officials are optimistic it will only cause a blip in operations instead of the extensive damage the country remembers from Hurricane Roxanne over a decade ago.


Share slump and credit crunch: passing peak oil

Regular readers may be surprised to see me offer commentary on the financial markets, given my dim view of such factories of speculation and greed. This is no sideshow, however. The unfolding turmoil may eventually be seen as a historic event. Another turning point, the worldwide peak in oil production, is a key player in this unfolding drama, although its role goes unnoticed by most in the audience.


Iraq-Syria oil flows depend on security

Iraq is interested in re-activating a pipeline linking its oil centre of Kirkuk to a Syrian port only if it could be secured, Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain Al Shahristani said.

The two countries, which are at odds politically, have been discussing restarting the 880-km pipeline from Kirkuk to the Banias terminal on the Mediterranean.


Who resolves Arctic oil disputes?

Russia's planting of a flag at the North Pole this month has set off a race for control of the Arctic, with five nations preparing to make claims to the seabed at the top of the world.

...Resolving disputes arising from the claims will represent a major diplomatic challenge to the five nations that surround the rapidly thawing Arctic Ocean. But experts say the track record for dealing with similar disputes is encouraging, suggesting it's likely that rival nations can work out a mutually satisfactory solution over the coming decade.


Norway Debates the Promise, Costs of New Drilling

In little more than two generations, oil and gas have transformed Norway from a country recovering from World War II occupation into an economic powerhouse. But now its citizens and politicians are debating whether it should take advantage of Earth's warming to drill for more oil above the Arctic Circle, knowing that consumption of that oil will accelerate climate change.


Europe’s gas monopolies may suffer as glut aids UK utilities

A widening natural gas glut in Britain will bolster the profits of UK utilities and could threaten the dominance of gas monopolies in continental Europe, according to a leading gas industry forecaster.


Yankee plant closed but its waste remains

With the site of one of the country's first nuclear power plants finally considered safe for public use, all that remains of the reactor that stood for 47 years in the woodsy town of Rowe is its radioactive waste.

The federal government announced this month that the Yankee Rowe site had been officially decommissioned. But 266,000 pounds of spent fuel is still sitting on about 3 acres of land, sealed in protective barriers in the Western Massachusetts town teetering on the Vermont border.


State windmill plan causing quite a flap

The Pennsylvania Biological Survey has gone to bat for the bats in a swirling policy debate over whether commercial wind power development should be permitted in state forests.

The debate pits advocates of wind power as an alternative energy source against those who fear that windmills are harmful to bats and birds.


Environmentalists win White House suit

A federal judge ordered the Bush administration to issue two scientific reports on global warming, siding with environmentalists who sued the White House for failing to produce the documents.


Climate change called security issue like Cold War

Climate change is the biggest security challenge since the Cold War but people have not woken up to the risks nor to easy solutions such as saving energy at home, experts said on Tuesday.


Does Flying Harm the Planet?

Airplanes operate on petroleum fuel, which means they release large amounts of carbon dioxide when they fly. Commercial air travel is currently responsible for a relatively tiny part of the global carbon footprint - just 3.5% of total greenhouse gas emissions, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But the unique chemistry of high-altitude jet emissions may produce an additional warming effect, while the explosive growth in air travel makes it one of the fastest-growing sources of carbon gases in the atmosphere. And unlike energy or automobiles, where carbon-free or lower-carbon alternatives already exist, even if they have yet to be widely adopted, there is no low-carbon way to fly, and there likely won't be for decades.

Having read this about the depleted uranium:
Kerr Magee had applied to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to call their waste an "experimental fertilizer" and just spread it over the top of the land.
http://www.metafilter.com/64033/Kerr-Magee-had-applied-to-the-Nuclear-Re...

I'm now wondering if one could have a whole WEEK of drumbeat topics on the failure modes of fission power, what with yesterday's news about the attempted cover up of a reprocessing accident.

(the hits just keep coming folkes!)

Eric--

The link you provided gives absolutely no cite to any application by Kerr-McGee or any information thereon and is instead a rant against use of DU weaponry (now, in fairness, I didn't subscribe as requested so maybe that was why I missed the actual reference). Do you have a cite or link that actually gives information on the alleged application? (If the link given is the extent of the information available, that might be why TOD doesn't devote a whole WEEK to this topic.)

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=kerr-mcgee++experimental+fertilizer...

(And is DU useful enough that governments would have an 'enriched uranium disposal problem' just to get sweet, sweet DU for use? Somehow I doubt it.)

Eric--

Thank you for the link. Since this occurred back in the 80's, it is difficult to know if such an application would even be made in today's political environment (although I have no doubt these companies still own many politicians). And I agree with your implied message that increasing the use of nuclear is not the answer to our energy problems. As you recognize, we still have not figured out the waste issues (and probably never will), so creating more radioactive waste by building more nuke plants so we can continue the our current unsustainable lifestyle is moronic.

we can continue the our current unsustainable lifestyle

The 1`st step in system analysis is to look at the limits and understand what, if anything, can be done to address these limits.

I've yet to see the "Ohhh, lets build fission plants!" pimpers talk about other limits, let alone talk about the failure modes.

Oil prices rise on renewed storm worries

Crude oil prices rebounded Wednesday after dropping below $70 overnight as Hurricane Dean threatened to regain strength and possibly further affect oil installations in Mexico.

While the storm was downgraded to a Category 1 storm on Tuesday, it was closing in on the Mexican mainland Wednesday, battering evacuated oil platforms on the Bay of Campeche and threatening to regain some of the force it unleashed on the Yucatan Peninsula.

The sprawling, westward storm was projected to slam into the mainland Wednesday afternoon near Laguna Verde, Mexico's only nuclear power plant, which is suspending production.

Japan eyes chopsticks for biofuel

Japan will try to turn the millions of wooden chopsticks that go discarded each year into biofuel to ease the country's energy shortage, officials said Wednesday.

Meanwhile, in China they're recycling disposable chopsticks in other ways...

Boy, talk about scraping bottom...

And has China, Inc. taken it on the chin lately, or what?

Boy, talk about scraping bottom...

No, the very real bottom will be scraped when China starts recycling used toilet paper without disinfection. Yuk!

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Bob, I've heard it said that we needn't worry about our trade deficit with China because eventually those dollars will come back to us.

I just realized how that might happen ...

Paging Mr. Sailorman...

Hey Don, I appreciate your level headed economic analysis.

I think you mentioned consumer confidence yesterday as one of your barometers on how we should fare in the coming months. As long as US Consumers continue to feel good and spend, we should be alright.

Headline this morning: "Biggest One Week Drop in the History of Comsumer Comfort Index"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/21/AR200708...

Is the Canary Singing?

As King Solomon is reported to have remarked...'There is nothing new under the sun'...And much later legendary stock trader Jesse Livermore commented...'There is nothing new on Wall Street.' And this is the summary of a panic written by Walter Bagehot, influential economist/banker and editor of The Economist, during the mid-Victorian era in his essay on Edward Gibbon...'Much has been written about panics and manias ... but one thing is certain, that at particular times a great deal of stupid people have a great deal of stupid money ... the money of these people, the blind capital as we call it, of the country is particularly large and craving; it seeks someone to devour it, and there is plethora, it finds someone, and there is speculation, it is devoured and there is panic.' As long as the wind blows, as long as the grass grows, human nature will remain unchanged.

It is when the canary stops singing that you need to worry.

Not deathly quiet yet, but the tune is clearly no longer so bright and upbeat.

Consumer confidence is key: There are several surveys of consumer confidence, and when they all turn down then usually we see a fall in consumer spending.

If consumer spending goes down, then we are in a recession. If consumer spending holds up or increases, then no recession. I hate to oversimplify, but it really is that simple.

Now variations in business spending (real investment in inventories and plant and equipment) do matter a lot because they fluctuate greatly. Changes in investment frequently trigger either recessions or booms. Note that new home construction is counted as investment; it is way down. Thus I do not look for a boom in investment spending to keep the economy going in the face of declining spending by consumers.

Last year I forecasted a recession in 2007; I might have been right then.

Note that government deficits are expansionary, but here it is change in the size of the deficit that has the most fiscal effect, and because the deficit is not increasing, I do not look for expansionary effects from fiscal policy this year.

So long as consumers keep charging more and more on their credit cards (and clearly, increases in credit-card debt cannot indefinitely outpace increases in nominal income in percentage terms) the economic expansion will continue. If consumers spend less, then yes, we are going to into a recession, and it could come quickly.

Hang out at WalMart and Kmart.

When they stop stocking so many big screen TV's and switch focus to cheap clothes, cheap food, etc....

The emphasis on 'always low prices' has been increased with WalMart's influence in the last couple of decades, so there may not be much room for people to make up their money losses. It seems that now the only route is to borrow heavily against their houses and then let the houses go.

Then the IRS comes after them for taxes on the forgiven debt.

More than glaciers are melting...

"If you want Change, keep it in your pocket. You vote for a faux president every four years, but you vote for real corporations thousands of times each month. Your money is your only real vote."

It's strange how the financial headlines (Bloomberg) these days are so eerie and contradictory:

Lehman Brothers Closes Subprime-Mortgage Subsidiary, Fires 1,200 Employees

U.S. Stocks Rally on Speculation Takeovers Will Pick Up, Economy Will Grow

Citigroup, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wachovia Tap Funds From Fed Window

U.S. Notes Fall on Speculation Fed Rate Cut Will Be Held to Quarter Point

Mortgages Lead Biggest Rise in Late Loan Payments Since 1990, FDIC Reports

Lehman, Accredited, HSBC Shut Offices, Fire Employees Amid Subprime Rout

Capital's Discus Hedge Fund May Lose $407 Million After Sentinel Collapse

So stocks go up 145 pts on the Dow on speculation that merger mania is coming back. What I want to know is what information these traders are acting on. 'cause I couldn't possibly go long on stocks based on the news that I'm hearing. I now expect that when some actual good news appears again, stocks will crash.

-Don

Let's see... B of A gets easy Fed Funds and then invests 2B US in Countrywide which is clearly going banko. Can we talk about the beauty of the free market?

Gary

From The Housing Bubble Blog:

“‘People who are ready, willing, and able to buy a house can’t do it because they can’t find a mortgage,’ said Timothy Warren Jr., Warren Group’s chief executive. ‘That’s got to be bad.’”

They did a story on Accredited this morning on CNN. (Can you imagine what it must have been like for their employees, waking up to that?) The CNN hairdos recommended that if you needed an exotic mortgage, and qualified, to rush out and get one now, while they were still available.

"Cut thy spending and get thee to the non-discretionary side of the economy."

In addition to the housing & finance layoffs, look for spreading layoffs in auto, entertainment, travel & leisure, etc.

WT, 'travel & leisure' is taking it on the chin in Florida and has been for several months. Housing sales have tanked badly here, only behind California last that I read. CNBC did a segment on auto sales this morning and the talking heads said 'Not that many good deals to be had because auto makers have cut back on manufacture'...and...'Some good deals are to be had on SUVs and pickups.' Entertainment...I dont know about that. I continue to purchase books and dvds from Half.com when someting I want is for sale at a bargain. The last movie that I saw in a theatre was 'Ferinheit 9-11' and the popcorn cost more than the price of admission. I dont see that practice as a sustainable business model...lol

I continue to wait for the Hollywood crowd to urge consumers to avoid seeing movies at theaters--because of the enormous amounts of fossil fuels used in driving to and from, and heating and cooling, movie theaters.

In any case, given the high ticket prices at theaters, I expect to see more and more people to seek their escapism entertainment via DVD's.

Funny, when a power emergency is declared around here, they ask us to go to the mall or to a movie. If we all go home and turn on the aircons, it doesn't help reduce power use. Going to the mall does, because they have their aircons running whether they have one customer or a thousand.

Of course if your A/C at home is left running full blast while you are at the mall, that doesn't end up being all that helpful. . .

True, but there's a pretty strong economic incentive not to do that. Those who don't have a lot of spare cash do think twice about turning the air conditioner on, because you really see it in your power bill. Even relatively cheap air-conditioners come with timers now.

Those flush with cash can get zone cooling and all that fancy stuff, and usually do.

Geothermal A/C--it's the way to go.

Geothermal heating and cooling is definitely efficient. Essentially, the earth is used as a giant thermal battery to average out the thermal loads over year.

It does take a lot of upfront capital and a fair amount of land. Approximately one well is required for each ton of cooling. On the few commercial buildings I worked on, the site around the building looked like it was pockmarked with wells.

A drilling company in northern Ohio has made a business of a set of wells for a commercial building and charging by the BTU for energy, like a utility.

KB--
I put in a vertical standing water column geothermal system at my house (new construction) and it cost less than 25% more than a standard forced air system (and the forced air system would not have included A/C so it was really less expensive than both heating and cooling). It runs off my well pulling water from the bottom of the well, extracting or adding heat from or to the water, and reinjecting it into the well, so doesn't require any extra land. The well was no deeper than it would otherwise have been to find water (although that is not always the case). Although the geothermal compressor takes a higher start-up amperage than the inverters on my PV system can handle, the pump itself is a soft-start variable speed pump that does run off my battery bank. And the geothermal system has a back-up that runs a blower and pump to extract heat off my hot water tank (currently propane, but I'll add a solar hot water preheater next year). For new construction that will already be putting in a well, it is a pretty ideal system.

WestTexas,
expecting Hollywood to advocate not going to theaters is the same as expecting coal burning electric companies to advocate solar panels on the roof of every home in America. It might be a great idea and patriotic to do , but don't expect them to willingly commit suicide.
Bob Ebersole

Hollywood (even the latte liberals) would never suggest that people stop going to movies per say. Having said that it will not be that bad if Movies decline in popularity - as long as the infrastructure for digital transmission is still up.

The neighborhood Movie theater may even make a comeback. Go to any pre WW2 hood and an old movie theaters, bars, clubs, ect are in walking distance.

River,
Travel and Leisure is also suffering in Galveston, judging by the new ease of finding a parking spot on the Seawall above the beach I don't know if its the fear because of tough times, the cost of gasoline, or a new higher level of unemloyment or some other factor and combination of factors. But the real data, surf's up and not very many surfers, is there for anyone to look at.
Bob Ebersole

Bob, one of the many problems facing this area (Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach) is that the communities have never decided 'what they want to be.' It is as if the entire area is schitzophrenic. For instance, we have two large NASCAR races per year, a large sports car race, two large biker events per year, a large spring break, a large black spring break, the Turkey Rod Run, and several other special events, and the communities bill themselves as 'family destinations.' Most of these events bring in more money to the community than the community spends on services but some do not. If families come here on vacation and happen to interact with the 'events' crowd the results are usually not good. Most of the families go away with a poor opinion of the area because they are disturbed by the 'events' crowd. Personally, I am a biker and enjoy the biker events and dont mind the other events. I have lived here a long time and can contrast what I see here with other beach communities, like Myrtle Beach, and see that MB decided long ago that they wanted to be a 'golf and family destination' and have concentrated on those areas...and have been very successfull. As usual, there are several wealthy families in this area that are the powers behind local politics. In addition, there have been huge and continuing battles about 'driving on the beach.' None of these fights over events or beach driving or families have been settled so the communities contiue to live torn between being 'events' oriented or 'families' oriented. Meanwhile, I go my own way and do as I like, and avoid the petty bickering.

River, its amazing how parallel our local issues and events are, from driving on the beach to Black Beech Party Weekend. We don't have NASCAR and driving on the beach is largely settled, but eveything else is pretty much the same except we fight over free parking on the Seawall and have a couple of Mexican/Latino things too.

I can't resist arguing sometimes, a major flaw as you see in my other posts and hastle with eric blair, so I do get involved in local politics. I want commuter rail to Clear Lake and Houston so we can hook up to Alan Drake's Electric Rail Plan. Getting started on mitigation will involve a lot of local work too.
Bob Ebersole

I want commuter rail to Clear Lake and Houston so we can hook up to Alan Drake's Electric Rail Plan.

Funny thing is, the backbone for such an idea is already in place and runs along Old Galveston road aka Highway 3. I see trains moving large box cars and tanks along those tracks periodically, and with some revision and expansion, you could easily have a north/south line running from Galveston through South houston, Pasadena and on to Houston proper pretty easily I would think. But then I won't claim to be a railroad engineer or city planner, so perhaps I'm being idealistic.

Telumehtar,
One of our city councilman is coming to ASPO and I'm hooking her up with Alan Drake. Call me at 409 three nine two seven four nine seven and I'll fill you in. I think we all need to start working on a local level because our federal reps from Houston and Galveston are all a bunch of party hacks pretty much except for Gene Green. The sooner we get the Houston line down to Hobby, then down to Clear Lake, the better. And from Galveston to Dickonson, then up to meet in Clear Lake. It just might make all the suburbs south of Houston liveable as gasoline availablity declines. Bob Ebersole

I agree about the local level. Amtrak runs right by our neighborhood, and our local senator has already raised the issue of why we don't have a stop.

<