DrumBeat: August 29, 2007
Posted by Leanan on August 29, 2007 - 9:09am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Gas prices expected to keep more drivers home
Fewer Americans plan to travel by car this Labor Day weekend, AAA says, despite gas prices that are about a dime lower than a year ago....“This year families appear to be concerned about the travel costs associated with an end of summer vacation, which may mean Americans aren’t canceling previously planned trips but are not planning to travel more than they did last year,” said Robert Darbelnet, president and chief executive of AAA.
The other side of carbon trading
Planting trees in Uganda to offset greenhouse-gas emissions in Europe seemed like a good idea - until farmers were evicted from their land to make room for a forest.
Heat wave will stress California electric grid
Electricity demand in California surged past forecasts Tuesday, setting a new peak for the summer and prompting calls for conservation as a heat wave was expected to push demand near all-time record highs on Wednesday and Thursday.
Throughout the West, from Alaska to west Texas, mining camps and once-vibrant towns have decayed into relics, their fates sealed by the whimsy of economics, changes in transportation, or the boom and bust of resource extraction. We drive past, wondering what they once were like, or wondering who lives there now, or, perhaps not noticing them at all.Which of today's thriving towns will become the next century's ghost towns? What places will have become forlorn, decrepit and abandoned? This might be wild speculation, but could the answer be the West's sprawling subdivisions that depend on the automobile and cheap fuel, those far-flung developments miles from Main Street, work, schools and soccer fields, that Americans love for their views, relative quiet and sense of privacy?
The last straw? Alongside debt, rising food prices threaten industrial growth
Just when the world economy seemed to have found immunity to rising world fuel prices, the rising world grain price may be the shock that finally ends its long upturn, as costlier food baskets eat into household budgets.
Western oil firms face growing troubles in African countries
Big foreign oil companies are finding it harder to make money in Africa because of the region’s often unstable politics, output restrictions and moves by some governments to rewrite contracts.Africa remains one of the last big regions open to foreign oil exploration, and companies of all stripes are benefiting from record energy prices. But fresh obstacles threaten to crimp future production in a region that is crucial to global energy supplies.
Nigeria: Oil Theft Costs Nigeria $14 Billion Yearly
Nigeria loses $14 billion a year to the highly lucrative and illegal business of oil bunkering, the President of the Corporate Council on Africa, Stephen Hayes has said.
California's gain but Oregon's pain
The push by energy speculators from Texas, New York and California to build the first West Coast liquid natural gas terminal in Oregon is yet another unfortunate sign that our state is being viewed as a suitable place for high-risk industrial projects that California and Washington won't tolerate. While the residents and political leaders of Tijuana, Mexico, successfully fought plans for an LNG terminal there, most of Oregon's politicians have been unwilling so far to speak out against such projects.
Study links CO2 to demise of grazing lands
Rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may be contributing to the conversion of the world's grasslands -- crucial for livestock grazing -- into a landscape of useless woody shrubs, according to a study released today.
Because humans have the mobility and intelligence, they can restore the ecosystems and increase the diversity of many areas over what would be climax. Humans can potentiate ecosystems and live in stability from the increase. Realizing that now, anything except existing wild lands would be scar tissue renewing the flesh of the earth. The preferred method of restoration would be the practice of Permaculture. This method of growing food and restoring ecosystems has spread world-wide among cognizant people .
Credit crunch cools demand for automobiles
Just when the U.S. automotive sector looked to be getting its legs underneath it after a years-long slump, another stumbling block has come along to knock it off kilter — the credit crunch.The ongoing pain in the housing sector — including higher monthly payments for some owners and declining home values for others — is persuading many Americans that buying a car is not a good idea right now, according to market research company CNW Marketing Research.
Edwards: Americans should give up their SUVs
Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards told a labor group Tuesday that he would ask Americans to make a big sacrifice: their sport utility vehicles.“I think Americans are actually willing to sacrifice,” Edwards said during a forum held by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. “One of the things they should be asked to do is drive more fuel efficient vehicles.”
But wait … the shortfall gets even bigger once you take into account the projected decline in the amount of uranium available from decommissioned nuclear weapons over the next 20 years.About one-third of the uranium used in the U.S. comes from old Russian nuclear warheads under the Megatons-to-Megawatts program. The Russians have said they won't renew the agreement when the program expires in 2012. Why? They need the fuel for their own plants and they're sick of selling it cheap.
In Caspian, Big Oil Fights Ice, Fumes, Kazakhs
On an island in the Caspian Sea, the hub of the world's largest oil-development project, a thousand men in orange jumpsuits train for catastrophe.Oil in the Kashagan field here is potentially lethal, with high concentrations of hydrogen sulfide gas. So workers carry oxygen canisters and gas detectors and do daily evacuation drills. High-tech getaway boats stand ready to whisk them to safety. The place feels more like a hazardous-chemical plant than an oil rig.
"One breath would kill you," says offshore installation manager Ian King.
Since an unlikely alliance of Western oil companies received rights to drill for oil here a decade ago, they've struggled to cope with a combination of rig-wrecking ice packs, bone-chilling winters and noxious, high-pressure gases. Yesterday, the consortium's bid to exploit one of the world's top oil deposits encountered its biggest challenge yet: Kazakhstan's government, stung by delays and rising costs, suspended the group's permit for the field, halting work there for the next three months.
Peaking Oil Production: Blindsided by Peak Oil
The longer we wait, the worse the consequences will be. I can't but wonder how many people will be saying over the next decade, "We should have done something about this years ago."I'm growing more restless with each passing day. And after the conversations I've been having with readers for the past few weeks, it appears that a lot of you are too.
Precious metals are about to play catch-up
Now, to illustrate my point that supply and demand are important factors, I would add that this rising demand (regardless of monetary inflation) would not have translated into a higher oil price IF there was an endless supply of oil. In the current scenario however, the oil price is rising because supplies are extremely tight when compared to demand. In fact, I would argue that humanity is staring “Peak Oil” in its face.Today the average Chinese person consumes less that two barrels of oil per year and the average Indian consumes less than a barrel of oil per year whereas the average American consumes 25 barrels per year. After reviewing this data, you don’t have to be a rocket-scientist to figure out that demand for energy in Asia can only rise in the future. And unless we can find a way to increase supply, the price of oil will continue to appreciate.
Conservation Lessens Energy Profits
The world is devoting more resources to renewable energy, yet little is done about the best solution – energy conservation. This is because selling energy is a business, and no businessman wants to encourage his customers to use less of his product. Another problem is that governments generate tax revenue from the sale of energy, so simple ideas to conserve energy are often ignored.
Nicaragua, US Company in Oil Spat
Nicaraguan vice president, Jaime Morales, criticized the lack of cooperation by the US company ESSO for refusing to store Venezuelan oil.According to the vice president, ESSO "put both feet in" by refusing the use of its storage tanks at a time that the country is going through a serious energy crisis.
Gaz de France to convert salt caves into gas store
Gaz de France has unveiled a £350m deal to develop salt caverns in the north-west of England to store gas, as the Government grapples with Britain's mounting energy crisis.
The prospect of a work stoppage by more than twenty-thousand construction workers in Canada’s oil-rich province of Alberta has sent tremors far beyond North America. “Unions know they have oil companies by the neck,” writes the Financial Post’s Claudia Cattaneo, pointing out Alberta’s labor shortage, which gives workers the clout to reject a 24 percent pay increase over four years that would make most Canadians “cringe with envy.” Some of the workers consider a four-year contract too long (Global Investor) and say they are “simply fighting for the best deal as employers book record profits."
OPEC Chief Visits Angolan State Oil Firm
OPEC Secretary General Abdullah el-Badri wrapped up a meeting to the oil cartel's newest member Angola today by holding talks with bosses at state-run oil firm Sonangol, official media said.Although there were no details about the outcome, the talks were expected to focus on the the production level that OPEC, which regulates oil supply from its members to control prices, will fix for Angola.
There is yet another issue with regard to economic growth and its relationship to the quality of life. Economists typically suffer from a growth fetish and imagine that it can solve most of the problems of the contemporary world. But there are a thousand reasons to suspect that the reported numerical increases in GDP and its growth do not add to the welfare of ordinary people in the country to the degree normally believed. In many cases, “better” numbers are portents of decline and failure in often immeasurable ways. Apart from well-known conundrums such as the GDP going up if a wife divorces her husband and sells him sex thereafter, or the GDP rising with greater medical expenses on account of the growth in respiratory diseases from pollution, there are numerous problems (too many to go into here) with taking the GDP measure of human welfare seriously. One problem with GDP measures is that if growth is accompanied by rising inequalities and expenses on guard labour to control growing crime rates, many of the purported benefits are cancelled out. An even more intrinsic problem with using the GDP measure as an index of human welfare in a country like ours – with such a huge unmonetised subsistence economy – is particularly serious: losses occurring in the economic realm outside the measured markets (tribal populations living on gathered minor forest produce or fisherfolk catching fish to eat for themselves along the coastline or small farmers growing their own grain) remain unreckoned. Thus, unsurprisingly, the government will offer figures for the creation of jobs (in say, SEZs) but never for the number of livelihoods (which are more than jobs after all) lost.
DC Metro Blames Mechanical Failures
Metro officials said the unsettling series of smoke and fire incidents that halted train travel throughout much of the system for two nights probably was caused by power and equipment failure and not sabotage, underscoring the agency's difficulty in maintaining and operating the aging rail line as ridership grows....Metro's most recent difficulties highlight one of its biggest issues -- maintaining its worn equipment, such as its power substations, signaling and communications systems, and track beds. Some of the fires, for example, were caused by smoldering insulators that heated up because they were damaged by water or were coated with grime. The 31-year-old system has about 250,000 such insulators, which are attached to the electrified third rail that powers the trains.
North Dakota Oil (video and transcript)
You may be wondering why are we experiencing a gasoline shortage when oil production is peaking in North Dakota...The shortage isn't with oil the bottleneck is in the refining process.
This graph shows you what's going on...
We have three pipelines that bring gasoline into the state.
All three of them dead end in North Dakota. President of the North Dakota Petroleum Council, Ron Ness, says being at the end of the pipeline means we get the left overs and now there's not much left over to get.
Subprime crisis gives Opec dilemma
Before the subprime crisis, Opec had been expected to raise production at that meeting. Now it is worried that it could be increasing supply just as demand is about to collapse in a global economic downturn.Opec is haunted by the meeting in Jakarta in November 1997, when its members agreed a 10 per cent increase in its output quota as the Asian financial crisis was beginning.
Before that decision, the price of oil was above $20. Afterwards, fears of a global recession and two warm winters sent it down to $12 in 1998 and then $10 in 1999.
Let me start by saying that this post is as non-partisan as it gets. I care about America, not political parties. So buckle your seatbelt...We're facing an oil crisis. Biofuels and hybrids will not save us in time. But oil shale might.
Linux, Windows duke it out over energy efficiency
The battles for energy efficiency aren't just being fought by chipmakers, server and PC vendors, and other hardware companies out there. There's a similar battle heating up on the OS layer between Microsoft and Linux.
Land that was once used to grow food is increasingly being turned over to biofuels. This may help us to fight global warming - but it is driving up food prices throughout the world and making life increasingly hard in developing countries. Add in water shortages, natural disasters and an ever-rising population, and what you have is a recipe for disaster.
Kenya: Biofuels Likely to Boost Energy But Increase Hunger, Now Critics Warn
Though biofuels are being touted as the solution to Africa's growing energy crisis, not everybody is happy with the rising demand for biofuel products.Already, some environmentalists have raised concern about the potential threat to the continent's weak food security.
Ethanol byproduct aids farmers, ranchers
The rising demand for corn to make renewable fuel might be hurting some dairy farmers and beef ranchers, but others are finding advantages to staying close to ethanol plants.Converting corn into ethanol produces a byproduct called distillers grains, which can be used as high-protein livestock feed. Most are dried so they can be shipped across the country and overseas, but cattle ranchers within 50 miles or so from an ethanol plant can save money by buying wet distillers grains.
Moscow Court Issues Arrest Warrant for Former Russneft CEO
Moscow's Tverskoy court today issued an arrest warrant for NK Russneft OAO former chief executive Mikhail Gutseriyev, Interfax reported.The billionaire executive left the company in July after what he described as an "unprecedented hounding" by the Russian government.
Russneft is the focus of several enquiries, notably in court for the "illegal activities" of its subsidiaries and by the Ministry of the Interior for large-scale tax evasion.
NOAA blames hot year on greenhouse gases
Warming caused by human activity was the biggest factor in the high temperatures recorded in 2006, according to a report by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.



North American HV DC Lines in Process
http://www.transcanada.com/company/northernlights.html
3 GW per line, 500 kV
Solid lines are HV DC, dashed are yet to be determined HV AC or HV DC.
Plans are to first use tar sands heat (NG or nuke) to make electricity and then to melt goo out of sand, so Ft. McMurray to San Francisco. Montana and Wyoming will supply both coal and wind power for the line.
Best Hopes,
Alan
California is a net electricity importer by a large percentage. I guess we'll have to import more electricity from Oregon so that we can export it to Canada.
Look at today's graph and tell me what you think California has available for exports. Note how the demand curve intersects the supply curve around 330 today. Yikes!
http://www.caiso.com/outlook/SystemStatus.html
I'm not seeing it, but it's good to have a dream.
Alan,
Its hard to know whether to weep or rejoice at some of the plans and solutions being put up as proposals. I really don't want to see modern civilisation collapse, yet the solutions being put out by some of the folks can only increase global warming because we need to get off our fossil fuel dependence. As my father remarked to me about 10 years ago, its really disheartening to think your life has been spent so that people could spend their time stuck on the freeway. This is any thinking oilman's dilema.
Don, 1observer who wrote the keypost on A New Method of Heavy Oil Extraction, Toe to Heel Air Injection, THAI on the Oil Drum the day before yesterday was kind enough to respond to my post about the economics of the wells. I'm going to post my results on that post, but the relevant part is that the wells are now 500 meters long in the horizontal leg, will last 5.2 years at 1200 bbls per unit, and as a consequence by my figures will have a 10 or 12 to 1 payout on dollars in the project.
THAI seems very economic, and figured at $60 per barrel should make the 80% of the tar sands too deep for strip mining more economic than the surface extraction without needing significant natural gas or water. I'll finish with the figures and have them up at about 1 PM central standard time. I'm going to post them back on the THAI keypost. It should unlock the US deposits of heavy, bipassed oil in sandstone reservoirs as well, making an onshore oil boom probable and energy independence more than a pipe dream.
The thing that worries me most about this is exponential growth. With the growth in world population and the greenhouse gas problem, a huge technological breakthrough like THAI appears to be only extends the time to peak oil, and doesn't change the greenhouse gas/global warming problem one bit. Its a matter of population, of self restraint and when the oil is gone now it will really be gone-this process gets 80% of the original oil in place out, but the remaining 20% will be totally uneconomic. And, in the meantime its going to take at least 10 years to deploy the method to get the US self-sufficent, we need true belt tightening and a heavy emphasis on change to renewables. Surely peak oil has taught us that.
And , what sounds more fun and entertaining to all of us, sitting in heavy traffic back and forth to a 10 or 12 hour a day job and coming home to upsetting TV like the current situation, or living in a vibrant city like Alan, and eating great organic food, and having time for your family, friends and a meaningful job like WesTexas's ELP program leads to? No matter what, the next 10 years are going to be really rough, but lets use the breathing space wisely. Bob Ebersole
Looking at some of the down thread posts, I wish folks would make up their minds. Regardless of the current deathtoll from all causes, we still increase the global population by 76,000,000 or so every year, and I keep hearing people complaining about the population increase as being the major cause of GW, PO, and related stuff. So which is it people? You want to reduce the death toll or reduce the global population, or what? You can't have it both ways. Make up your damn minds.
How about reducing human suffering and death, while motivating people to voluntarily reduce world's population in the long run by reducing the birth rate?
Peak Oil isn't an issue because of an abstract need to maintain large reseves of oil undergroud. It's scary because most of the world is dependant on a constant supply of cheap easy energy to maintain its standard of living. Concerns about Global Warming are more linked to logistical challenges facing huge portions of the world's population as the climate changes than to an aesthetic desire to conserve a "pristine atmosphere"
You're dreaming. People are designed to reproduce. How many people do you know who are "sad" when the wife gets pregnant, or their kids have grandchildren? Like I said; Make up your damn mind. The Catholic religion encourages reproduction and prohibits birth control, as does Islam and most other religions. Think you can change the Pope's mind? We will literally screw ourselves to death, given the choice.
And yet...there are cultures where zero population is the ideal.
The problem is they tend to be overrun by the cultures who breed like bunnies. :-/
Yep. ;) The problem is that breeding like bunnies is so damn much fun :) Let's hear it for 72 (temporary) virgins: Go Team Go! :)
No, it isn't. Sex is fun, raising kids is not.
Cultures that embrace zero population are not necessarily anti-sex. They use birth control, including infanticide and abortion. They encourage suicide. They do things other than intercourse, if you know what I mean.
The problem isn't really that people want kids. Sure they do, but most people are fine with one or two.
The problem is when two societies are in conflict, the one with the higher population density tends to win.
I sorta have to agree with the sex is fun, raising kids is not comment. I've fathered 4 with 2 wives ( sequential, not concurrant :) ), but the raising part is not all bad. Mostly good actually. I do think your view of most people being fine with one or 2 is a very "Western" viewpoint however. And even then, there are significant departures from what is "culturally normal". Mormons come to mind, as well as
Catholic doctrine.
In any case, reproduction is a biological imperative, regardless of the cultural aspects. We tend to think that our current status as top of the food chain heap is the be-all and end-all of evolution. Sorry. Not happening. Religious/cultural beliefs notwithstanding, biological and cultural evolution continues without regard for our petty concerns. Whether anyone likes it or not, it is winner takes all in the end.
See my other comments along this line, below.
You sound like a man. ;-)
I daresay the raising would not be as fun if you didn't have enough food for them.
Disagree. Birthrates tend to drop naturally when safe, affordable birth control is available, as long as the children you do have are likely to survive to adulthood.
And too many children were a problem in western societies, too, before birth control was widely available. (Google baby farming.) Even middle class families could not afford more than one child in a household. Children were turned out in the streets as early as age 3 (forming bands of boys a la Oliver Twist). Orphanages were church-sanctioned child-killing machines. Only a tiny percentage of children lived to age 16 in such places.
I don't think anyone here thinks that.
Yes, but other cultures have kept their populations at sustainable levels for thousands of years. Clearly, it's possible. It's not easy, but it's possible.
And these days, population density is not the advantage it once was. Hence Israel's dominating the Palestinians despite being outnumbered by them. (Of course, whether they'll be able to keep doing that in the post-carbon age is whole 'nother story.)
The Hadith about 72 virgins is sketchy, sort of like the fascination certain Christian sects have with same sex relationships based on a handful of conflicting statements in the bible. Yeah, its written, but is it spiritual in nature, or just a "Uncle Sam Wants You" billboard of the times?
It's also, a recent scholarly argument suggests, a misinterpretation of a promise of food and drink for the faithful.
In particular, white raisins. Of "crystal clarity", though.
PtE, I read recently that 'white raisins' was a slang word for a jewel stone in the area of Mecca.
James Gervais
With a handle like "Gene" (e.g. DNA), I assume you are a geneticist with a twisted funny bone, probably due to a deficiency in a critical seriousness allele.
The reproduction horse always precedes the religious cart.
All species on this planet are evolved/wired to reproduce as much as they can. If their ancestors didn't have a strong, built in genetic drive for reproduction, they wouldn't be here. Simple as that.
Religion fools people into "feeling" as if they aren't animals but instead they are "divine" creatures.
Fact of the matter is that we ARE animals and we fornicate for the same reason that stray dogs on the street do it. We are driven by our genes to do it. This isn't a matter of free choice. It is a matter of genetic imperative.
right on.
as a longtime TOD lurker, i don't mean to offend everyone with my very first post, but what has always amazed me is the blind sense of 'entitlement' to procreation that many people seem to have, regardless of the cultural/religious justification they state.
what upsets me even more is state-sponsored drives to increase population: spain, poland, quebec, etc.
every day i see people with kids they could not afford to have if it wasn't for the 'baby bonuses' and other incentives these kids got them.
i can't help but wonder how these people will survive when peak oil really hits home, the state's taps run dry, and they have to fend for themselves.
I say we do both. Reduce the death toll by reducing the population by reducing the reproduction. Eventually everyone dies, all we have to do is reduce the amount of people being born. The problem is, most people like to have control over their right to reproduction. I can't blame them.
Out of all my friends, only one of them PLANNED to have a child, all the rest had theirs via "oops" and "Oh-no." I have no children yet, and as time goes by, I think not having any is the best course of action.
How about this, government sponsored vasectomy operations for anyone who wants one?
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com/)
Gene,
I think we can have both, but just not quickly.
The real sources of population growth are desperately poor countries. There, more kids means more field hands. Most of them have womwn who have no power in their relationships, and can't say no to sex and kids-like all the Moslem countries, or the countries in Central and South America who are Catholic.
Global warming comes from the US, and the rapidly industrialising countries, who just want a prosperous life style, and who can blame them? Working in a "dark, satanic mill" beats the shit out of wading all day barefoot in a rice patty, especially if you can drive home in a car. So why aren't we selling them electric cars and helping every child in the world get hold of a computer? Its cheaper to educate them than kill them fighting us in a war. As a marine, I know you know I'm right. Educated people just don't have growing populations.
In the US its our government, the best that money can buy, letting the power companies burn coal and the automobiles get 12 miles a gallon, and we have to breathe their poison. I don't think people should be allowed to dump their pollution in my air any more than they can take a dump on the sidewalk. And you cut the pollution from cars to 1/3rd when you make it go three times as far on a gallon of gas.That's what CAFE standards means. Wind, nukes and solar don't make CO2 pollution,new power plants should be built only with non polluting power sources.
Alan's electrification of rail makes great sense economicially, it adds real security to the US and it clears all the highways of long range trucks and the freeways of cars.
I'm sorry for the jobs of the teamsters, the coal miners and the power plants that refuse to change, just like I'm sorry for the jobs of tobacco growers and asbestos miners or the guys that made patent medicines with heroin. Sometimes society makes decisions that step on toes but have to be done.
Bob Ebersole
I don't know Bob. I've worked in a "dark satanic mill" and I've also trudged thru many a rice patty. Pretty much the same except for the leaches are of different species. And yes, you're right about "civilized" populations having lower birthrates, however that does not mean that civilized populations will be the winners in the race for superior DNA. The point is that individual cultures, and individuals, are continually sacrificed to ensure survival of the species. We, being currently at the top of the heap, think we have a right to remain there. Guess what? Evolution continues apace, regardless of the petty concerns of ant hills or people. If we are smart enough, and strong enough, and adaptable enough we might, might, continue to exist as a species. StarTrek not withstanding. So be it.
I guarantee that some of today's cultures, countries, religions, etc. will not survive. So the only question is; which will continue and which won't? Choose sides. And be prepared to defend your choice with deadly violence. Because if you're not, you lose.
"On then! Value means survival-
Value. If our progeny
Spreads and spawns and licks each rival,
That will prove its deity
(Far from pleasant, by our present
Standards, though it well may be)."
...from "Evolutionary Hymn", a satirical poem by C.S. Lewis
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." G. Orwell.
Peace has ever been a set of principles coupled with the willingness to do violence to those who do not grasp them fully.
A similar sentiment, though from a much less famous source.
http://www.lexrex.com/enlightened/articles/warisaracket.htm
“WAR is a racket. It always has been.
It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives.
A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of the people. Only a small "inside" group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge fortunes.”
- Gen. Smedley Butler
Except that I am constatly amazed by how many very educated people in my area (Silicon Valley) have three children by choice. They obviously either don't appreciate or don't care that if everyone did that we would grow the population 50% per generation.
That's assuming that all of your 3 or more offspring survive into reproductive adulthood.
Regrettably and sadly, that is not a given.
All too many couples (yes even here in our golden Silicon Valley) lose their children to car accidents, disease, crimes of violence, drugs, etc.
There are even these never-occurring events called war and drafts. You can spend a whole life time raising a child, sending them to the best schools and so on; only to have Uncle Sam pluck them out of line and send them to the front so they (and you) can make the "ultimate sacrifice" for God and country.
Lemmings are we, born to be free, even of that nasty gravity.
Hi Bob,
Thank you for mentioning "...women who have no power in their relationships...."
The organization "Human Rights Watch" sums it up as follows:
http://hrw.org/women/
"Millions of women throughout the world live in conditions of abject deprivation of, and attacks against, their fundamental human rights for no other reason than that they are women.
Violence and discrimination against women are global social epidemics, notwithstanding the very real progress of the international women's human rights movement in identifying, raising awareness about, and challenging impunity for women's human rights violations.
We live in a world in which women do not have basic control over what happens to their bodies. Millions of women and girls are forced to marry and have sex with men they do not desire. Women are unable to depend on the government to protect them from physical violence in the home, with sometimes fatal consequences, including increased risk of HIV/AIDS infection. Women in state custody face sexual assault by their jailers. Women are punished for having sex outside of marriage or with a person of their choosing (rather than of their family's choosing). Husbands and other male family members obstruct or dictate women's access to reproductive health care."
Etc.
(I skipped the section on rape as a weapon of war.)
While HVDC promoters insist that it helps renewables the evidence suggests it helps fossil energy even more. Places that could have made do on local generation now get dirty power from far away.
AC is inherently better at long distance transmission then dc no matter the material. it would pump more juice if you sent AC down it.
wrong - HV DC is the thing long haul.
A 1000 km (if mem serves) HV DC line looses only 3% of initial energy - as compared to HV AC .... TK, whats your number?
Kaiser;
Do you just make this stuff up?
Advantages of HVDC over AC transmission
The huge advantage of HVDC is the ability to transmit large amounts of power over very long distances at much lower capital costs and with much lower losses than AC. Losses are quoted as about 3% per 1000 km. This has given rise to proposals to for example generate between 10-25% of Europe’s electricity in Concentrating Solar Power Stations located in North African deserts, and feeding it to Europe via HVDC lines (see Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation). Airtricity is promoting a combined wind farm and HVDC network to link up UK and Western Europe.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HVDC
Bob
The advantage of AC (going back to the rivalry btw. Edison and Westinghouse) is that it can easily be stepped up to high voltages with dumb old transformers. The high voltage, in turn, requires less in the way of wire diameter to carry the same power. ( power = voltage * current ) ( more current requires larger wire )
Edison's low voltage DC of 120 years ago tended to suffer losses from the resistance of the lines. And horrible electrochemical corrosion.
The disadvantage of AC is that long lines act as antennas, radiating the power away into space. There are various mitigating/aggravating factors going into this, but it remains that AC radiates power away from the lines. Long enough lines and you have nothing at the far end. Coaxial lines suffer dielectric losses. (power radiating as heat) .etc.
We now have solid state electronics that can control large amounts of HVDC power. The lines don't radiate ... somewhere I have seen a proposal to make the wires out of sodium (because it's cheap, you can make large diameter wire for underground long hauls -- just watch out with that backhoe!)
| The problem will solve itself.
| But not in a nice way.
Yes, Yes, Yes. HVDC is more efficient than AC. Actually, it is more efficient over all distances. The benefit of AC is that you can use a simple transformer to change voltages. This lets you use a high voltage, low current line to distribute power and then reduce this voltage to a safer voltage near the end user's home. Until recently there was no way to do this cheaply with DC.
The problem with AC is that because the voltage is changing the long wires act as an antenna causing the wires to send out low frequency radio waves which sucks energy from the wires. DC does not do this.
I have to say, it boggles my mind that we are putting up long wires charged to 500kV.
Hi Alan,
Thanks a lot for the added horror for the day! (smile)
I think the Empire State building was started on the edge of the 1929 collapse and made as much money on tourists visiting the observation deck (I guess to get a better look at a collapse) as on rents. Didn't make a profit till the 50's I think.
Time line on this project indicates 2012 as completion. (Big Grin Here)
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Population, Population ... It just multiplies and multiplies and we will see all forms of energy good, bad and indifferent thrown into the mix, as well as all the energy-saving ways means and devices, 'unless of course a honking great collapse says no, then it's time to climb back into the trees those of you who are left and view the wreckage.
Bush Wants $50 Billion More for Iraq War
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/28/AR200708...
I subscribe to the Washington Post on-line digest and the only words shown were Bush Wants $50 Billion More. Today is the second anniversary of Katrina and Bush is in town. My pulse picked up 15 beats/minute as "hope sprang eternal".
Alan
President Disaster seems to be on course for more of the same.
1. 9/11 about 3000 killed.
2. The Iraq war black hole with over 3000 more killed plus over 100,000 Iraqi's.
3. Katrina wipes out a major U.S. city with scores dead.
And oil prices jump to new highs.
4. A major infrastructure bridge collapses in Minneapolis killing 13.
And another one's gone. And another one's gone. And another one bites the dust.
Katrina wipes out a major U.S. city with scores dead
Scores ?!??!
Oh My God !
Do you not even know the body count > How many killed by the US Army ?
We have 110 unidentified dead from Louisiana today, a memorial was dedicated a few minutes ago to the unknown dead.
Over 1,100 dead in Orleans Parish from the federal flood and over 1,800 dead overall directly with at least as many more indirectly.
Alan
The death toll from Katrina has to be the most under-reported/suppressed story of the past few years. God forbid if anything should rival 9-11 as a catastrophe.
While not in any way wishing to downplay Katrina and 9/11, I think it is worth keeping in mind the fact that there are around one million dying from road accidents each year - year in year out.
Of that the USA accounts for some 40,000.
The number of injured is many times greater.
While this puts the numbers in a perspective of sorts, it doesn't do well on the "so what" test.
All but a few of the Katrina deaths were likely preventable by proper evacuation and dike-construction procedures (or else by deciding in advance that the area had become too burdensome to protect and retreating from it in an orderly way.) Proper procedure could have included such things as a plan to bring in drivers for the hundreds of city buses that could have evacuated people and were instead left by the fecklessly moronic city government to be destroyed by floodwater.
In addition, a community was virtually destroyed in a manner that simply does not occur with random accidents - or even with the vastly more numerous ordinary deaths that simply come with age. In this sense, the perspective, like a lot of other statistical/accounting info, is true but nonetheless useless.
OTOH, before there ever were cars, there were plenty of fatalities from accidents involving horses and other draft animals, as well as wagons and carriages. Random transportation deaths have been with us, in quantity, since time immemorial. Like it or not, we still don't yet have a socially, economically, politically, humanly feasible way to zero them out - we'd have to strap everyone down in bed.
I see. A death from a car-related accident is somehow unavoidable. It was preordained.
Floods and strikes by an enemy are different.
Yes, they are different.
"there were an estimated 243,023,485 registered passenger vehicles in the United States according to a 2004 DOT study."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passenger_vehicles_in_the_United_States
There are surely a lot of things we can and should do to reduce the number of Highway/Auto fatalities, but there is obviously another issue involved with the Administration's indifference around forseeing or fortifying against these two, benchmark incidents, or for their flimsy and misdirected actions following them. The numbers of people on the roads pretty much guarantee that 'stuff will happen'.. but we have an NTSB, Speed Limits, Safety Belts, Traffic Signs and Weather Advisories.. What happened in NOLA is akin to Bush deciding to take 4/5 of the State Troopers off the highways, turn off the traffic lights, and cut costs on all those redundant "One Way signs" and divider stripes.
Now for something different from Monty Python's Flying Abattoir:
(italics are mine.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War#Overview
"Katrina, 9/11? Traffic accidents, very curious" Alice said to the Caterpillar "What have they been smoking?"
50 billion more for war eh? Alan, can we do a bit of extrapolating here? How many dead will that produce, will it be cost effective, bring home the oil bacon and kill more Americans in traffic accidents?
Im not so sure actually. I think if you asked the man on the street in the NE a lot of people would say 5000 or even 50000. I thing there is a general awareness that a lot of people died. I was actually surprised to see the final toll was as low as it was when i saw it a few mos. after, because the initial reports were mostly several times higher.For what it's worth.
Another thing is that there are some pretty media-savvy people publicizing K. issues up here. It's hard to miss this stuff when it's right in front of you on the street in NYC, so I think this has generated quite a bit of awareness as well.
Matt
This statistical summary shows Orleans Parish at "720+", so, literally, no. Amazing after a full two years and given driver licensing, credit cards, and various other IDs. At least 86 scores in total, though, making "scores" an unusual way of putting it.
But come to think of it, I can't recall ever seeing/hearing the summary news story wrapping it all up and giving such numbers, the way one gets sooner or later following an airliner crash. But it unfolded so slowly that I'd be hard pressed to say when such a wrapup story ought to have run. Certainly the "press" and everyone else had Moved On To Other Things by the time there were even semi-real numbers.
...plus over 100,000 Iraqi's. (killed). More like 650,000. A Johns Hopkins study came up with that figure some time ago, and it has to be much larger now. Half a million kids died during the sanctions period prior to the that. How many lives will be taken by the depleted uranium being dumped all over the country know one knows. All this in a country of with a population somewhere in the mid 20 millions.
I'm not overstating -- I'm leaving many things out.
Continuing that trend, it would be around a million now. Both the methodology and the people who conducted the study were first rate. We have to consider this the best available estimate of the impact.
I was shocked a few years ago to learn that American forces were responsible for over 100,000 civilian deaths in the Korean War. While Korea is never viewed as a WW2-level "good" war, we like to think it was utterly different than Vietnam.
We must face the fact that the average major military intervention by the United States of America will cause from 100,000 to 1,000,000 civilian dead. That's foreknowledge. Which means the president who starts a war knows he will be responsible, on average, for that many deaths, no matter how much crap the Air Force spouts yet again about minimizing collateral damage. Which is why an American judge stated at Nuremburg that the waging of a war of aggression is the ultimate war crime, for it contains within it the seeds of all other war crimes. You're responsible because you have statistical foreknowledge.
So where's the Democratic candidate who has the guts to tell the American people that?
Where is the Democrat willing to say that? He's completely marginalized by the party itself, just like his Republican counterparts saying similar things. There is almost no possible way that someone like Dennis Kucinich or Ron Paul (two men who come closest to saying what you are asking be said) will ever be allowed to even get near the White House (as president).
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
I've heard a figure as high as 2 1/2 mil for Vietnam. There were close to 1,000,000 true combat deaths on the N. & VC "side."
Matt
Why were you shocked? What do you think war is? It's certainly not about "hearts and minds". That's a political slogan. War is about killing. Anything less than that is called "diplomacy". In case you have any doubts about that, perhaps you should go fight one. Smell it. Feel it. Stand in it. Roll around in it. Taste it. Try not to make any noise when you puke, cause if you do the other guy will hear you, and then you die. Don't fart, for the same reason.
War is what diplomats and politicians resort to when talking doesn't work. Too bad they don't have to go fight it. They might talk a little longer if they did.
As bloody as the Korean war was, it could easily have been far bloodier. And just FYI, that one was started by N. Korea. But, in any case it's irrelevant who starts a war or why. The only thing that counts is who wins it.
At least 618,000 Americans died in the U.S. Civil War - for some other stats: http://www.civilwarhome.com/casualties.htm . Suppose the South had won?
Why were you shocked? What do you think war is?
Yes, war is BAAAAAADDDDD. That is why, at the founding of the United States they created a set of rules for being in a war via a Declaration of War.
When people call me a "doomer" for suggestng that PO will cause literally millions of Americans to become refugees, I remind them that over 500,00 Americans (of a much smaller population) were refugees at some point during the Civil War.
PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami
Where are the American citizens who have the guts to state their beliefs to their elected representatives?
It is after all "we the people," "government of the people, by the people." It was not ever "let's wait around for the bozos in Washington to tell us how to live our lives."
Like it or not, respect it as you will, there are people in the middle east who are quite ready and willing to die for what they believe in. Americans appear to want only to be able to idle in traffic without it costing them too much.
Live Free or Die! the slogan of a free Iraq.
Don't Tread on Me! the slogan of an independent Iran.
Cheap Gas! you get 50 guesses.
IraqBodyCount.org has been a consistent critic of the US Military's lack of accounting and responsibility for civilian deaths in Iraq. Since the start of the war, they have maintained a database which contains all of the reported civilian casualties.
They currently list the number of Iraqi civilian casualties at a minimum of around 71,000 and a maximum of 78,000. Writers from the site have bebunked the Lancet medical journal study with this press release:
Reality checks: some responses to the latest Lancet estimates
This post is not meant to downplay the tragic loss of life that has occurred, during both Gulf wars and from the intrevening sanctions, but to point out that it's difficult to give much credence to the John Hopkins study.
I only know one Iraqi personally - a guy on their national university library science team. I sat next to him on a flight from New Orleans to Houston last year and he wouldn't tell me if he was Sunni or Shi'ia, but he did relate that things pretty much sucked, were getting worse, and he was going to try to ditch the group in Jordan and stay there.
He ended up going back to Baghdad. I got email once every month or so, then it just stopped about six months ago. I don't know about the other 999,999 but this one I am sure was cleansed, or he'd have found at least a little computer time so he could relate the latest troubles.
I think that it's worth pointing that IBC count civilian deaths reported in two or more Western media. As you can imagine, in the hell that is Iraq, the majority of deaths do not get reported. Thus their numbers are far below the actual number of deaths,
Peter.
Post-Katrina New Orleans and Post-Peak Oil America
On the second anniversary of Katrina, I wanted to repost an earlier post in response to "can we avoid a disaster" with a focus on Suburban property values and BAU (business as usual).
Paint me a picture whereby things end up other than quite disastrously. Please
I hope for nothing worse than post-Katrina New Orleans for the USA post-Peak Oil.
If we work quite hard we can limit suicides to x6, overall mortality up only 47%, population density tripled in viable housing with most housing uninhabited, very limited health care, transportation, food supplies, erratic water & electricity, skyrocketing crime and a "Don't Give a Damn, You know they deserved it" attitude by the rest of the world.
Best Hopes for Nothing Worse,
Alan
Katrina significantly increased my peak oil pessimism. Some people say I'm a doomer. If so, Katrina made me one.
There CAN be a good and very worthwhile life after so-called "doom". One reason I have little fear regarding post-Peak Oil is that I have "been there, done that".
Unfortunately, much of the USA lacks the resources and cultural values of New Orleans that have helped us deal with the sh!t. So be it.
I want to present, via my proposals, what will be a very scarce commodity post-Peak Oil, HOPE
Best Hopes,
Alan
That has nothing to do with it, really. People seem to assume that "doomers" are unhappy or hopeless about the future. IME, that is not true. They are merely people who don't think business as usual will continue in the future. Many of them are actually quite happy at the idea.
And New Orleans wasn't doom. It was merely the tiniest first hint of it.
And New Orleans wasn't doom. It was merely the tiniest first hint of it
The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves
The USA will not prepare in advance. I once had hopes that we would would, but no more.
The question is the reaction early post-Peak Oil. A proper and effective reaction (hopefully combined with a modest decline in oil exports, but even without) could keep the life of the average American on rough par with that of an average New Orleanian in the first year post-Katrina.
Thus my efforts to pre-position my meme for that not distant day.
Continued stupidity is of course, not a survival value.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Alan,
The early reaction to peak oil will be (is as of right now) much the same as the early reaction to Katrina. There will not be any early mitigation. There will not be any effort to let Americans live as Katrina victims have lived in the first year post-Katrina. You also forget that a huge number of New Orleans natives never returned and are being housed in other US cities (mainly Houston!!) that have not yet suffered catastrophic decline.
New Orleans was the barest hint of what is to come unless America wakes up. And America is bound and determined to sleepwalk into the post-peak oil age with all that this implies.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
The early reaction to peak oil will be (is as of right now) much the same as the early reaction to Katrina
The future is *N*O*T* immutable and unchangeable !
Human efforts, including mine and many others in the Peak Oil movement, CAN CHANGE THE RESPONSE !
NO ONE can say with certainty what the early and mid-post-Peak Oil reaction will be. My experiences in New Orleans give me hope for a positive and productive reaction.
Many other times in history, a small group of people have changed the apparent "pre-ordained" reality,
Best Hopes for Working for a Positive Reaction to post-Peak Oil,
Alan
Can Thoughts and Action Change Our Brains?
Talk of the Nation, February 2, 2007 ·
For years, scientists believed the brain's structure couldn't be changed. The new science of neuroplasticity says that's not the case, and argue the brain is much more flexible than previously thought. Science writer Sharon Begley talks about her new book, Train Your Mind, Change Your Brain.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=7131130
"There is more between Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than is dreamt of in your philosophy"
Thanks for that, John. Good reminder that we have both a lot of hidden potential and flexibility that remains 'undreamt of', and also that there is so much we feel sure of, that the universe occasionally corrects us on.
There was a discovery recently that Human Females, in contrast to 50 year-old thinking, may actually Grow New Eggs. The discovery was in Mice, which were also understood to have a finite number of eggs..
http://www.webmd.com/infertility-and-reproduction/news/20040310/women-no...
Who knows? But there are possibilities to be discovered..
With you on that, Bob:
...and suggests a "reserve of stem cells that form the building blocks for reproductive cells must exist in female mice as they do in male mammals".
Yep, from cancer stem cells to tissue regeneration, the universe is within. Shhhhh.
Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now.
The future is *N*O*T* immutable and unchangeable!
Whereas this is probably true, the problem lies with the probability of altering the future's course. This is where the curse of success comes in, the system (put your own name to it; Civilisation, Economy, Empire, New World Order, whatever... the name is immaterial) has been made thoroughly unresponsive, especially to anything which curtails its advancement. The system responds only to those things that it sees as necessary and ignores all else. The myriad methods of controlling and corrupting the masses, moulding consensus and manufacturing consent, means the system only hears what it wants to hear and only does what it wants to do. As far as the system is concerned politics or religion does not exist, all must bend to its will and it cares not how they decide to do it.
Going forward there will be a forced move towards a more sustainable system and this will likely be done efficiently. The most unsustainable aspects of the system will simply be removed until some suitable level of sustainability is gained. A global downsizing with all costs externalised wherever possible will occur.
The system doesn't need to change the future, it just needs to be able to function in it. Turning food into fuel is a typical system response as is war. Advancement for the system is in no way aligned with the concept of advancement as understood by the masses. Creative destruction is always available to kick-start the process if it stalls.
Changing the response? Only with the systems acquiescence, only if it fits with its own internal dynamics of advancement. Good luck it will be a lottery. And lets hope the system believes it's worth the trouble to maintain the world's population.
Triumvirate of collapse - Economy, Ecosystem, Energy
Bingo! I don't fault Alan for trying but I do think his chances are beyond tiny.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
The future isn't going to change. It'll be what it will. It's just a lot ofour predictions of the 'expected' futures that are going to have to change..
The greatest shortcoming to the exponential function is the surprise plot-twists that nature is waiting to deal.
Of course, there is also an exponential function at work with the millions of Alan's that do what little they can, with faith and love..
"I honestly believe that the future is going to be millions of little things saving us. I imagine a big seesaw, and at one end of this seesaw is on the ground with a basket half-full of big rocks in it. The other end of the seesaw is up in the air. It's got a basket one-quarter full of sand. And some of us got teaspoons, and we're trying to fill up sand.
"A lot of people are laughing at us, and they say, "Ah, people like you have been trying to do that for thousands of years, and it's leaking out as fast as you're putting it in." But we're saying, "We're getting more people with teaspoons all the time." And we think, "One of these years, you'll see that whole seesaw go zooop in the other direction." And people will say, "Gee, how did it happen so suddenly?" Us and all our little teaspoons. Now granted, we've gotta keep putting it in, because if we don't keep putting teaspoons in, it will leak out, and the rocks will go back down again. Who knows?" ~Pete Seeger
"My optimism rests on my belief in the infinite possibility of the individual to develop non-violence.. ..In a gentle way, you can shake the world." M Gandhi
Alan,
A return to the bucolic permaculture would be nice but like you I think PO and its aftermath are well within our resiliency band of behavior.
If PO is here then the example of post PO life is WWII energy rationed life. Closely followed by many of the alternatives advocated here, but more realitically a transition to Fischer tropp synfuel. If PO is imminent (+/- 20 years) then the example is the S curve of coal from wood, long lead, dramatic adoption after technology was figured out (Watt and coke, etc.), followed by long use even after new fuel (oil) was being considered (1859 to 1900) British adopted oil vice coal for its naval fleet.
The federal government will not prepare because they're too busy servicing the dying wishes of corporations. People are preparing, more with each passing day, and while the world may change a good number of us will persist after the decay of civilization.
When Leanan talks about doom it isn't what you experienced in Katrina, its another Katrina and the fleeing survivors being shot by the next administrative unit up the road because they don't have the carrying capacity for the additional people. Darfur residents trying to exit to Chad and facing the Chadian army ... that is a model for doom.
This site and our society in general suffer from what I'd call an atomic viewpoint - either we have "the solution" or there is no solution. I think this stems from too much in the way of the village elder role being filled by a handful of talking heads in the Meat Stick Media. Someone here (you, Alan?) uses the phrase "silver BBs" and this is absolutely right - individuals on the ground can use information to their advantage and some policy changes need to be made, but like any area of innovation the federal government just gets under foot and skews things to political rather than operational ends. As you've seen that is going to get people killed, likely in increasingly large numbers as we go forward.
the fleeing survivors being shot by the next administrative unit up the road
You are not aware of the Jefferson Parish and Gretna police shooting at New Orleanians trying to walk to the bus pick-up point for white Republicans in Metairie that got a foot of rainwater in their homes ?
FEMA established a bus pick-up there on Wednesday morning, with ice and Port-a-lets, for the white Republicans that got some rain water in their homes (post-WW II sprawl, so they build on slabs while New Orleans is largely elevated).
Only after the white Rs were safely evacuated, and GWB was scheduled to lie from Jackson Square Friday night, was relief sent into New Orleans over dry roads. (How do you think the TV crews got their satellite trucks in ?)
It was a dry road from the Metairie pick-up point to the Convention Center. The overhead shot of Army convoys wading though water was just for PR purposes.
Alan
Alan,
At a little before 1am Aug 30, to the former and future residents of Orleans Parish and the Mississippi Gulf;
Best hopes that your loss, your suffering, means more to us in the future, in tangible ways.
Nostrovia. To life. Here's to Nick.