DrumBeat: August 28, 2007

OPEC policy will hit the poorest hardest, says IEA chief

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) criticised OPEC for setting a target price of around 70 dollars per barrel, saying in an interview published Tuesday that it would hit the poorest hardest.

"The market is clearly aware that OPEC has set itself a new implicit price target or a new price band of around 70 dollars (51 euros) per barrel and that the organisation will endeavour to defend this level," Claude Mandil told Arab Oil and Gas review.

"I deplore this, because it is a factor that could, whatever people often say, weigh on world economic growth and which represents a very heavy burden for the poorest people and the poorest countries," he added.

Energy futures mixed on OPEC, storm news

Oil and gas futures fell Tuesday as concerns about refineries faded and OPEC suggested that the oil cartel sees no need to boost production.

Natural gas futures rose on jitters about a developing Atlantic storm system and as traders covered positions ahead of the September contract's expiration on Wednesday.


Holiday 2007: 4 red flags

Store traffic declining: Shopping trips to malls have declined for 6 of the past 7 months months, according to Chicago-based market research firm ShopperTrak RCT.

"It's the first time that we've seen traffic fall across the United States and we're alarmed by this continuous drop," said Bill Martin, CEO of ShopperTrak, which monitors traffic and sales at close to 50,000 retail locations nationwide.

Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, said consumer traffic to its stores last quarter was softer than expected. Gap Inc., the No. 1 clothing chain also complained of weaker traffic trends last quarter.

Americans say they are making fewer trips to stores to save on gas, ShopperTrak's Martin said. They're also buying more online and bulk shopping at wholesale clubs like Costco and Sam's Club.


Big U.S. oil: Tepid on Libya

The country, thought to hold huge quantities of natural gas, is once again taking bids. But no interest from U.S. firms so far.


Big Oil Sees GoM as Pricey But Accessible

As geopolitical turmoil makes Big Oil's portfolio more risky, the Gulf of Mexico is fast becoming the energy world's savings bonds. While it's unlikely to match expanding production in West Africa or the Middle East, the area is immune to sudden shocks that come from working under unpredictable governments that control most reserves world-wide.

Companies are snapping up drilling rights in the Gulf on a scale not seen since the late '90s, when heavy bidding was fueled by the first hard evidence of deep water's oil-drilling potential and a lower tax rate. The hope of discovering the next half-billion-barrel oil field is still a big lure. But for the international oil companies that rule the Gulf, the new oil rush has as much to do with the lack of options elsewhere as the size of undiscovered reserves.


Mideast turmoil 'could cause world war'

Upheaval in the Middle East and Islamic civilisation could cause another world war, the US ambassador to the UN was quoted as saying in an Austrian newspaper interview.

Zalmay Khalilzad told the daily Die Presse the Middle East was now so disordered that it had the potential to inflame the world as Europe did during the first half of the 20th century.


South Korea: Surging Oil Prices Hit Pilot Training

Skyrocketing oil prices are compromising the Air Force's combat capability by reducing flight training hours for pilots, a state-funded defense think tank said Monday.


Jordan: King urges speeding up nuclear energy programme

His Majesty King Abdullah on Sunday called for speeding up the Jordanian nuclear programme, stressing that energy remains a top challenge that requires long-term radical solutions.


Saudi July inflation hits 7-year high on dollar slide

The dollar's slide over the previous 12 months to a record low against the euro in July helped drive up the cost of food imported from Europe, said Giyas Gokkent, head of research at the National Bank of Abu Dhabi.


South Korea: New Energy Source to Be Commercialized

South Korea is stepping up efforts to develop a new eco-friendly energy source and establish implementation for full-scale use of the fuel, dimethyl ether (DME), from 2012.

Coal-based DME is an alternative fuel to liquefied petroleum gas (LNG), liquefied natural gas, diesel and gasoline and is considered to be environmental friendly. The government hopes that DME will reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.


PCs lead in energy wastage

BUSINESS reliance on technology is generating almost 8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide each year, more than the emissions created by the civil aviation industry.

According to research conducted for the Australian Computer Society, one of the biggest power consumption demands comes from desktop computers, which in many cases are never switched off.

The load on airconditioning plants to cool devices is also adding significantly to emissions, the study shows.


German Energy Plan Faces Reality Check

A government plan to make Germany a global leader in fighting climate change must win the support of a reluctant finance minister to succeed.


Carnegie Mellon Researchers Look At Fossil Fuel Impacts

A team of Carnegie Mellon University researchers report that the choices U.S. officials make today could limit how the nation's future energy needs are met and could cost consumers billions in idle power plants and associated infrastructure systems. In the upcoming Sept. 1 edition of the journal Environmental Science and Technology, Carnegie Mellon researchers Paulina Jaramillo, W. Michael Griffin and H. Scott Matthews show that liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported from foreign countries and used for electricity generation could have 35 percent higher lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions than coal used in advanced power plant technologies.


The darker side of ethanol - As plans pop up for biofuel plants, neighbors argue they aren't so green.

In rural eastern Indiana, where corn-seed markers dot the roadside, a number of homemade white signs with electric-red letters have started popping up offering another message: "No Ethanol."


Randy Udall: NPC Report is Hand Grenade in Bubble Wrap

Facing the Hard Truths About Energy is perplexing, even schizophrenic. In maddening fashion, it blends numerous cautions about the “accumulating risks” to global oil and gas production with repeated, rosy reassurances that we “aren’t running out,” as if anyone said we were.

A call for maximum sustained improvements in automobile efficiency—a welcome first for Big Oil—is paired with a cheery statement about our “vast” global endowment of petroleum and natural gas. Peak oil may be near—but then again we might have 10 times more oil left than we have already used. Carbon emissions are a concern—but coal-to-liquids seems promising.

News coverage reflects the report’s confusing duality. Some headlines called it “alarming.” Other reporters found it a snooze.


OPEC Sec Gen Says Economic Uncertainty Clouds Oil Outlook

While global oil markets are currently well supplied, volatility in U.S. financial markets is clouding the outlook for world oil demand and economic growth next year, OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri said Monday.


Authorities stamp out Myanmar protest attempt within minutes

Defiant demonstrators tried to again to protest rising consumer prices Tuesday in Myanmar's biggest city, but marched only 30 meters (yards) before being beaten and wrestled into waiting trucks like farm animals by pro-government civilian thugs, witnesses said.

The two dozen protesters shouted slogans against a massive fuel price hike and implored onlookers to join them, stressing they were marching peacefully for their rights, said witnesses who asked not to be named for fear of official reprisals.


Gas Hike Doesn’t Slow SPDC’s Exports

While much of Burma reels under a sharp rise in fuel prices, an announcement on Monday that the country’s ruling junta will increase exports of natural gas and bio-diesel has left some Burmese analysts perplexed.


Petrol, diesel prices hiked in Punjab

Petrol and diesel prices in Punjab are up by 91 paisa and 16 paisa respectively, as the state government has re-imposed VAT on the fuel prices, which will bring a revenue of Rs 100 crore to the state.

The price hike came into effect from last night.

Last year, the then Congress government in the state had withdrawn VAT on the hiked portion of fuel prices in view of their escalating prices.


Outside needs tap Jefferson aviation fuel for a week

Peak flying season and an inordinate number of Northwest wildfires is to blamed for a recent week without aviation fuel at Jefferson County International Airport.


Will oceans surge 59 centimetres this century - or 25 metres?

When Al Gore predicted that climate change could lead to a 20-foot rise in sea levels, critics called him alarmist. After all, the International Panel on Climate Change, which receives input from top scientists, estimates surges of only 18 to 59 centimetres in the next century.

But a study led by James Hansen, the head of the climate science program at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and a professor at Columbia University, suggests that current estimates for how high the seas could rise are way off the mark - and that in the next 100 years melting ice could sink cities in the United States to Bangladesh.


As bees go missing, a $9.3B crisis lurks

The mysterious disappearance of millions of bees is fueling fears of an agricultural disaster.


Gas Shortage in North Dakota

A study by Triple-A says Gas Prices in North Dakota are the highest of the lower 48 states, averaging $3.03 a gallon.

The situation may get worse before it gets better.

Officials say a supply shortage in the midwest is THE reason for high prices. In fact, gas is in such short supply Governor Hoeven requested a waiver today from the EPA to get gas out of Canada.

The shortage has left area stations scrambling for fuel.


Sinopec, Aramco refinery on track, discuss reserves

Asia's biggest oil refiner Sinopec Corp. said its plans with Saudi Arabia's Saudi Aramco for a refinery in east China were on track and the companies were also talking of building commercial oil reserves.


July oil output drops at Mexico's Cantarell field

Crude oil output dropped in July at Mexico's aging Cantarell offshore field, according to data published on the energy ministry's Web site on Monday. Cantarell, closely watched by the oil industry after sharp dips in output in recent months, produced an average of 1.526 million barrels per day versus 1.570 million bpd in June.

The figure meant Cantarell accounted for just 48.2 per cent of Mexico's overall crude oil output last month, continuing a steady decline over the past year at the field, which once produced around 60 per cent of the country's oil.

Analysts worry that state oil monopoly Pemex will struggle to ramp up yields at younger oil fields like Ku Maloob Zaap and Chicontepec fast enough to make up for Cantarell's decline.


Oil production nearing the peak

In 2005, the ASPO revised its prediction for the peak in world oil production, again, from both conventional and non conventional sources, to the year 2010. These consistent upward (into the future) revisions are expected in models which don't take into account continually increasing reserve estimates in older accumulations.


Tajik president urges population to get prepared for power shortage

President of Tajikistan Emomali Rakhmon has called on the country’s officials and population in general “to seriously and in advance” prepare for major disruptions in energy supply during the coming winter. “This year’s lack of water that affected the capacities of the exiting hydropower plans forced us to transfer to regulated and limited electric power supply, including to the population,” Rakhmon stressed at a special government meeting on Tuesday, the presidential press service reported.

Tajikistan has been experiencing a severe energy crisis for several years due to chronic shortage of own electric power purchasing it from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Last winter, the supply of electricity to the population was limited by four-six hours a day, and certain rural areas had no electricity in houses during the whole autumn-winter period.


Kenya: Daunting Task of Fuelling Economic Growth

Like many of the countries whose economies are on the take-off, fueling the growth of the Kenyan economy has emerged as one of the most pressing problems facing policy makers.

The past four year of steady economic growth has seen demand for electricity rise at the rate of 10 per cent annually against a supply growth of about 8 per cent kicking off a reserve thinning process that key players are now seeking to address by shifting the activities of bulk consumers to off peak hours.


Australia's oil and gas production up

Australian oil and gas production grew strongly in the 2006/07 year, a new report has found.

Energy advisory group EnergyQuest said oil production jumped 16.6 per cent to 129.8 million barrels, due to higher output from the Carnarvon Basin off the West Australian coast.

That helped lift petroleum production 10 per cent to 472 million barrels of oil equivalent in the 12 months to the end of June.


Australia: Consumers accepting ethanol in the mix

Currently, fuel grade ethanol production in Queensland, based on sugarcane, is estimated at around 32 million litres per annum, with CSR Ethanol at Sarina in Central Queensland and Rocky Point Distillery, south of Brisbane, the main producers.

"Queenslanders currently consume around 20-25 million litres per annum, but we believe that with peak oil and the international push to reduce carbon emissions, demand will grow and this is why, in Queensland, we are positioning ourselves as a leader in biofuel production," he says.


Noble Corporation Reports No Damage From Hurricane Dean

Noble Corporation announced that a survey of the Company's fleet of eight drilling units currently operating in waters off Mexico revealed essentially no damage as a result of Hurricane Dean.


Burundi hit by fuel shortage

A FUEL shortage in Burundi has led to rationing of fuel and doubling of prices. The shortage follows an order by the Burundi general prosecutor, Elysée Ndaye, for the impounding of trucks and fuel tankers belonging to Interpetrol Company and freezing of all the company’s bank accounts in Burundi. The company supplies more than 50% of fuel in Burundi.


PetroTech program helps fuel new career

The PetroTech program helps local energy companies by providing new workers who have a basic understanding of the industry and tools necessary to help the industry grow, Hochstein said.

"It fills a vital need in the oil and gas community,” he said. "Engineering and geological technicians are at a premium now. There's a severe shortage of them. The work force in the oil and gas industry is spread pretty thin right now.”


Problems of aging, shrinking population

The population of bugs in a Petri dish typically increases in an S-shaped curve. To start with, the line is flat because the colony is barely growing. Then the slope rises ever more steeply as bacteria proliferate until it reaches an inflection point. After that, the curve flattens out as the colony stops growing.

Overcrowding and a shortage of resources constrain bug populations. The reasons for the growth of the human population may be different, but the pattern may be surprisingly similar.


UN climate change talks open in Austria

More than a thousand people from government, industry and research institutions opened a week-long meeting in Vienna Monday as part of a UN initiative to discuss how to fight climate change.

"Climate change is a huge challenge that can only be tackled at a global level and in an integrated manner," Josef Proell, Austrian environment minister, said in opening the conference, according to a UN statement.

A new Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.

The developing credit crunch is looking less contained by the day, despite the recent bounce in the equity markets. The interconnectedness of global markets really becomes apparent when contagion threatens to spread.

Following on from the Montebello SPP summit, Naomi Klein brings us an interesting twist on the right of protestors to be heard - surveillance as the new participatory democracy.

More commentators are weighing in on the question of Newfoundland oil royalties, while a pipeline capacity shortage looms in Alberta and potential conflict brews in BC over coal bed methane.


Top 25 Quotes on the Credit Crisis of 'O7

The U.S. economy, once the envy of the world, is now viewed across the globe with suspicion. America has become shackled by an immovable mountain of debt that endangers its prosperity and threatens to bring the rest of the world economy crashing down with it. The ongoing sub-prime mortgage crisis, a result of irresponsible lending policies designed to generate commissions for unscrupulous brokers, presages far deeper problems in a U.S. economy that is beginning to resemble a giant smoke-and-mirrors Ponzi scheme. And this has not been lost on the rest of the world. - Hamid Varzi, International Tribune

More economic news...

Credit card defaults keep rising, report says

American consumers are defaulting on their credit cards at a sharply higher rate compared to last year, in what could be another consequence of the recent subprime mortgage market crisis, according to a report published Tuesday.

In addition, late payments are also up, cardholders are showing signs they are less willing to pay and credit card companies have written off 30 percent more payments during the first half of this year versus a year ago, the Financial Times reported.

And CNN has this little snippet on their "breaking news" banner:

U.S. home prices in 20 cities sink 3.5 percent in June from year-ago period, Reuters reports. More soon.

Home prices: Steepest drop in 20 years; no recovery soon

U.S. home prices fell 3.2% in the second quarter, the steepest rate of decline since Standard & Poor's began its nationwide housing index in 1987, the group said Tuesday.

The decline in home prices around the nation shows no evidence of a market recovery anytime soon, one of the architects of the index said.

MacroMarkets Chief Economist Robert Shiller said the declining residential real estate market "shows no signs of slowing down."

The report came a day after the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes dropped for a fifth straight month in July while the number of unsold homes shot up to a record level.

More economic news...

Credit crisis to claim Wall Street casualties

Four US investment banks are about to give investors their first look at wounds inflicted by the sub-prime collapse

Analysts and investors believe that banks, led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, are preparing to unveil falls in fixed-income trading, debt securities and mortgage securities.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_...

The sub-prime mortgage-driven credit rout had not kicked in when the main Wall Street players delivered their second-quarter numbers.

The credit crisis is set to force Wall Street's top investment banks to take big asset writedowns and reveal credit crunch wounds to some of their key businesses when they brief investors on third-quarter results next month.

The value of any debt instruments on their books, or any debt deal they were working on, has to be reduced.

EYE ON AMERICA
Your move, Mr Bernanke
By Walter T Molano

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IH29Dj01.html

'There is a consensus in the northern latitudes of the Western Hemisphere that the US Federal Reserve under chairman Ben Bernanke will magically solve the markets' woes. Asset prices rallied last week, as television commentators debated whether the US central bank would cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Politicians from both sides of the aisle called for a reduction in rates and an increase in liquidity. Although the United States insists on central-bank independence as a precondition for multilateral assistance, it does not feel it should be held to the same standard. The televised assurances by senior politicians that the Fed would ease interest rates made a mockery of the nation's monetary authorities. Moreover, the notion that a reduction in interest rates would solve the ongoing credit crunch was a naive understanding of the damage that has been done.'...snip...

'Banks are slashing lines of credit, paring back trading positions and refusing to roll over commercial-paper obligations because they must husband their cash. That is why a 50-basis-point cut or a 400-basis-point reduction in Fed Funds will not do anything to restore confidence. It is also the reason the markets will panic the day after the Fed's hand is forced on September 18, when they realize that financial institutions will still be unable to move the collateralized derivative structures off their books.'...snip...

'That is why, regardless of what the Federal Open Market Committee does on September 18, bank regulators, risk officers and boards of directors will think twice before buying another collateralized derivative obligation. Without limitless access to credit, US consumers will have to reduce spending, thus marking the onset of a global contraction.'...snip...

Just imagine the market reaction were the US to undertake a unilateral attack on Iran.

The result won't be the US Peso. It will be the US Kopek. The sub-Kopek.

The World Markets are in the midst of a Ponzi Security Fraud Crisis. 'Confidence' cannot recover all of the wealth bled off and stolen in the course of the worldwide Ponzi scam. These people want to be bailed out before the skeletons start coming out of the closets and warrants start being issued. Trust me, a lot of people will be going to jail before this is all over. Fact is, the level of fraud was so high, there isn't enough money in the world to bail them out. Besides, it's already on the downhill slide and picking up speed. Stabilizing the markets briefly will not restore the scam. Everyone knows, or at least should suspect, these paper assets are worthless. No one will touch them again even if the markets were flush with money and confidence. A Ponzi Scam requires ever more buyers at the front end in order to pay off the ones at the back end just to stay afloat. The game has been called and cannot be revived. The most they could hope for would be additional time to flee to a country without extradition. Since they defrauded most of the countries in the world, that might be difficult.

US to Attack Iran

"IRGC IED's are a casus belli for this administration. There will be an attack on Iran," Baer quoted an anonymous White House source as saying. "If this is going to happen, it is going to happen very quickly and it is going to surprise a lot of people."

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Former_CIA_Officer_Says_US_Ready_To_Stri...

Drudge Report Headline:

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8RA3C100&show_article=1

Iran Prepared to Fill Iraq Power Vacuum
Aug 28 10:47 AM US/Eastern
By ALI AKBAR DAREINI
Associated Press Writer

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned Tuesday that a power vacuum is imminent in Iraq and said that Iran was ready to help fill the gap.

"The political power of the occupiers is collapsing rapidly," Ahmadinejad said at a press conference in Tehran, referring to U.S. troops in Iraq. "Soon, we will see a huge power vacuum in the region. Of course, we are prepared to fill the gap, with the help of neighbors and regional friends like Saudi Arabia, and with the help of the Iraqi nation."

It's interesting to go back and look at some of the fiction that Tom Clancy wrote in the Nineties. He described, in no particular order:

A commercial airliner flown into the US Capitol Building.

A bioweapons attack on the US.

A nuclear weapon (it was supposed to be a thermonuclear device) set off at the Super Bowl.

A union between Iran and Iraq, after Hussein was assassinated by Iranian agents--followed by a war between the US and Iran/Iraq.

WT, there might be a power vacuum of sorts in DC soon. One of the regulars over at DailyKos called the resignations of Rove and Gonzales right on the button three weeks before they happened. Now, he is saying that Cheney is going to resign within the next three weeks. When questioned by other posters about how he made such accurate predictions (some accused him of gazing at chicken bones) he put his predictions down to good sources.

sounds too good to be true, but if so we might get the Republic back and have a free election again
Bob Ebersole

Would it be a good thing? The big boys, James Baker, George Bush, Sr. et al, (in addition to taking over Dunkin' Donuts and Home Depot Commercial Division via Carlyle Group) are taking the reins back. One by one they are getting rid of Bush Jr.'s core people. If they get rid of Cheney, they will put someone in to their liking who will have a much better chance of being the next president.

You means so we can ignore the results of the last seven years and get more of the same types of leaders in 2008?

It's a mistake to allow oneself much short term optimism: the democrats, never mind the crowd around papa Bush, seem to be hell-bent on war -- if not with Iraq, then Iran. A return to any sort of normalcy seems less and less possible on so many counts these days. And what we regarded as normal here in the US (and the West) for the last 60-70 years was never really normal -- it was the exception from any kind of historical point of view.

The military-industrial complex (not the perfect term any more, but I'll use it anyway) has a very tight grip on the levers of power. No one even gets on stage that they don't vet. (And of course they are willing to correct any mistakes they make.) There's just no other way to explain what's happening here. And it's not at all certain they are going to ditch the crew that has been so reliably pouring trillions of dollars into their coffers for so many years, regardless of what we (like, the world) might think of them.

It wasn't so long ago that these kind of discussions seemed completely nutso. No more. Anyway, we'll see.

[It's a mistake to allow oneself much short term optimism]

If you want to understand the value of short-term optimism based on the democrats regaining power, think back to the 2006 election, a time of wonderful euphoria and hope for meaningful change in many areas including the environment, then think about Rangel taking over the House environmental committee and the first thing he said was that there would be no increase in CAFE standards. There won't be any meaningful change regardless of who is in power. The dems might get us out of Iraq, but they can't cut us loose from the middle east as long as we are so dependent on oil. And Bush will probably have us at war with Iran well before the election.

Sauve qui peut.

The main democrat candidates are owned by AIPAC just like the neocons, other then a third party the only way to maybe see some change is to go way right or way left. Guys like Paul on one side and Kucinich on the other. No chance in hell one of them makes it to the finals, AIPAC owns the machine.

The front running democrat is even more dangerous and fanatic then what we have now.

Ron Paul Pres, Dennis Kucinich VP.

Ron Paul has said that Kucinich and him agree on over 95% of their votes.

I agree.

I can't for the life of me understand how people can think there is any meaningful difference between republicans and democrats. They both maintain this artificial division so that people don't notice Bush41/Clinton42/Bush43/Clinton44 are one and the same.

The reason why nothing changes is that people don't really want things to change. Otherwise, logic would dictate, they would change.

Deep down, sheep like being sheep. I'm no Bush fan, but the fact remains more than half of this country voted for him twice and under the rules, that's that. The people have spoken. The 57% who didn't vote can blame themselves, but 95 million votes is for all practical matters a statistically certainty.

We got Bush, and judging by the beauty contest, we're certain to get another Bush.

The reason why nothing changes is that people don't really want things to change. Otherwise, logic would dictate, they would change.

I would disagree. I travel a lot of back roads and feel confident that there still is a small majority of good people in the US that wants change, is not corrupt and is willing to work.

Everything is a game of percentages.

The education system in the US does not encourage abstract thinking (to put it mildly), but even on a gut level people understand that if someone not purchased were to get elected it would be very difficult to make changes with the entrenched special interests in the senate and congress. Lot's of frustration.

The system needs to change, otherwise it's just a dog and pony show.

PG posted about this awhile back. He argues that the reason there's little difference between the parties is indeed systemic. Stability was a big concern of the founding fathers, and as a result, they set things up so that it's very difficult to change. Basically, no matter what you do, you end up with two parties that are pretty similar.

That's not true of Europe and its parliamentary style. He compared the U.S. with a cruise ship, and European-style government with a speedboat. There are advantages and disadvantages to each.

Actually, the founding fathers didn't want political parties, and hoped that there wouldn't be any. What they anticipated was a multi-polar shifting set of coalitions amongst states, depending upon their various regional interests. They did realize that the slavery/non-slavery thing would be a big one, but they hoped that there would be other sets of interests as well (urban/rural, big gov't/small gov't, free trade/protectionist, etc.), and that it would all balance out.

What they didn't anticipate was that a multiplicity of interests might cluster together, and that two big clusters would quickly emerge and formalize into political parties.

It was an accident of history, totally unintended. However, once politics came to be dominated by two parties, a dynamic came into operation that worked to increasingly freeze the US into a two party system. The Civil War and its aftermath effectively completed the process.

Now, the only way that a new party could consistently rise above the single digit level would be for one or both of the two major parties to implode (as the Whigs did), or if there was a revolutionary constitutional restructuring (providing for European-style proportional representation, for example). The latter might happen in the aftermath of the peak oil induced crises, but is otherwise unlikely. The former might happen, but is likewise unlikely. Nevertheless, it might happen, so let's consider scenarios.

The Republicans are presently the most vulnerable to an implosion. Because they have been the dominant, governing party for so long, they are most vulnerable to a serious and vicious electoral backlash if things get bad enough. We here on the TOD have spun out all sort of scenarios, and one does not have to be a doomer to think that things could nevertheless get bad enough to make a lot of voters very angry at the party that would have been perceived as being the party of the wealthy elites & the corporations, the party of BAU and inaction. Could the Republican party survive not just the loss of the White House, but also of most of its Senate and HR seats and most governors & state legislators? It did when this happened to them during the Great Depression, but just barely. If FDR had not deftly maneuvered to simultaneously co-opt the left and secure the center, then room might have opened up for a new party to emerge from either the left or the center. This time around, the Republican party is even further to the right if anything, and also has an uncompromising religious right as a major player. One possible scenario would be for a split between the religious right and the secular/business right which has traditionally formed the GOP core constituency. The religious right party could become a permanent fixture, but would also be permanently stuck in the low double digits, and thus totally marginalized and ineffectual. The traditional rump might then find common ground with centrist and center right Democrats; Joe Lieberman is an example of someone that would probably be quick to join such a group.

The Democrats are a more diverse party than the Republicans, and always have been. It is somewhat surprising that they have held together all these years. If it were not for a strong opposition in the Republican party, they would have probably broken up years ago. It is thus hard to imagine a scenario where the Democrats would break up while the Republicans are intact. The only possibility would be if the tensions between the centrists and the left-wing became so irreconcilable that the leftists finally decided that they had enough and left to form their own party - maybe in coalition with the Greens, maybe not. Again, such a group would be small and marginal. I can't see a Green/Liberal/Socialist party ever getting more than about 20-25% of the vote at best.

Were both the Republican and Democratic parties to splenter, the existence of persistent left wing and right wing parties might force the centrists together into a single dominant party. There have been other countries where, for decade after decade, a monolithic centrist party won all the elections, and the opposition parties were noisy but powerless and marginal. The US constitutional system could accomodate such a future.

A cruise ship with several dozen captains suffering of PMS perhaps.

Kunstler found the perfect word to describe it.

I love the way that Dmitri Orlov put it: "In the US, you have The Capitalist Party, and The OTHER Capitalist Party"

Those others leaving were "unnecessary bits coming off", a phrase popular with Republic Thunderbolt pilots in describing what happened to an He-111 when one made the mistake of wandering into their gunsights. The loss of Rove was a major control surface like the rudder coming away, and Goonzales' exit was the starboard engine making a pretty flame trail. Cheney leaving puts the entire administration into a shaky glide with a lot of ground between now and the safe landing on 1/20/2009.

I personally want to see a hot, flaming impact and a pardon free debris field. We need to do the right thing in the right order and Bush is incapable of doing that in the context of a status quo, let alone facing the issues which we, as a society, are becoming aware of now.

Now, an interesting debate to have, is who Bush could nominate to fill Cheney's spot that could get confirmed. Recall that he/she must be confirmed by each of the House and Senate.

Has the US ever had a VP just resign without going through some process to expel him?

Spiro T. Agnew resigned, although with threat of impeachment imminent (after old bribes surfaced).

Alan

Yeah! Who could forget the "Nattering Nabobs of Negativism"

We miss ol' Spiro Anagnastopoulis (sarconal alert)

Prior to nine eleven parties unknown took out some very large short positions. As was reported in yesterday's Drum Beat, parties unknown have took out an extremely large short position on the market recently.

So, what's left on the list?

There's also this rather dubious report from Wayne Marsden:

Chatter about an "incident" on West Coast at all time high
http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_2336.shtml

We're entering very uncertain times, even some of the neocons are getting out while they can. I'm sure that with everything failing around them, Bush and the neocons are going to have to make their move, but we're going to be kept guessing until they do. Iran?

Triumvirate of collapse - Economy, Ecosystem, Energy

How about

Local Troops Deploy To Nation's Capital

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- Members of the 1st Battalion 265 Air Defense Artillery have mobilized and are on a plane headed first to Ft. Bliss, then for federal active duty in the capital region.

The troops will be deployed for a year.

They are ordered by the president to the nation's capital, where they will operate high-tech weapons systems against any potential air threat.

http://www.wesh.com/news/13949580/detail.html

Hell, I took out a very large short position. I've been extremely short the market and not because of a possible attack by people tired of getting crapped on by the US but because I can count.

When CNBC's Erin Burnett says people are better off with lead covered toys because they're cheaper, I'm short.

When my buddy loses his second house in five years and promptly spends 60K on a really cool Mustang, I'm short.

Cid, yes and France's neocon Sarkosy (spit!) is on message paving the way. Obviously all that time he spent in the US got him up to speed pretty fast.

Nicolas Sarkozy warns of Iran's nuclear crisis
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=?xml=/news/2007/08...

Nicolas Sarkozy gave warning yesterday that unless the West redoubled its efforts to curb Teheran's nuclear ambitions it could lead to "an Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran".

Sarkozy warns of Iran nuclear 'catastrophe'
Nicolas Sarkozy is seen as far more pro-American than his predecessor

The French president, in his first major speech on foreign policy, made it clear he intends to apply the same energetic approach to French diplomacy as he has to domestic policy since taking office in May.

From the Middle East to relations with Russia, the president promised a break with France's traditional Gaullist position of "splendid isolation", particularly towards the United States

Sarkozy in drive to give EU global role
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7ee9e8dc-54d1-11dc-890c-0000779fd2ac.html

Mr Sarkozy had tough words on Russia, which he accused of exhibiting a “certain brutality” in using its energy assets. “When one is a great power, one should not be brutal,” Mr Sarkozy said.

You have to laugh at the hypocrisy of these neocon's.

Triumvirate of collapse - Economy, Ecosystem, Energy

Another report on US preparations for an attack -->

The United States has the capacity for and may be prepared to launch without warning a massive assault on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities, as well as government buildings and infrastructure, using long-range bombers and missiles, according to a new analysis.

The paper, "Considering a war with Iran: A discussion paper on WMD in the Middle East" – written by well-respected British scholar and arms expert Dr. Dan Plesch, Director of the Centre for