DrumBeat: September 1, 2007
Posted by Leanan on September 1, 2007 - 9:30am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tropical Storm Felix Forms in Caribbean, Heads West
Tropical Storm Felix formed near the Caribbean island of Grenada, becoming the sixth named storm of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season.
Nuclear doubts spread in wake of Niigata
Global competition for energy resources and tougher controls on greenhouse gas emissions have made Japan reliant on nuclear power. While the government and regional power utilities are quick to associate the word "safety" with atomic energy, several fatalities, accidents, coverups and earthquake threats have damaged the industry's image.This is the first in a series asking whether, in the wake of July's massive quake just 9 km from the world's largest nuclear plant, it still makes sense for such a seismically active country to rely so much on the power of the atom.
University of Wyoming students in the College of Engineering covered the concepts of peak oil and renewable energy with Wyoming’s junior senator in a classroom discussion Friday.Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., sat in on a classroom discussion with engineering and multidisciplinary design students. The discussion was based on topics from the book “Beyond Oil,” by Kenneth Deffeyes.
Confession: After sixteen years and many efforts, I’ve yet to really connect with mass transit in this town. That’s odd, considering that I grew up on mass transit in New York City’s melting pot and generally like the communal experience — a daily, egalitarian reminder that we are indeed all in this together. But taking mass transit around Baltimore? It reminds me why I hate to exercise: Feels good, but I can’t stick with it. Every once in a while, something — guilt, perhaps, or moths in my wallet — drives me toward the fare box. Then the reality sets in. Half-mile walk to the Metro? Too far. Light Rail to Camden Yards? A dog sled would be quicker down Howard Street.
Electoral Politics Cancel Out Brave Calls to Raise Gas Tax
Here's hoping that members of Congress got some rest on their summer vacation, that they will return to Washington refreshed and wiser and ready to come up with a national energy policy that makes sense.But here's betting that those hopes are in vain.
The project will be the first ever LNG receiving and regasification terminal on the West Coast of North America. That it is in Mexico, not the U.S., comes by dint of California's rejection of all LNG proposals on environmental and security grounds. But northern Mexico, desperate for reliable gas supplies to fuel its thriving manufacturing sector, couldn't afford to be so absolutist.
Pakistan: Pumps to close CNG dispensers from today
Owners of private petrol filling stations will continue their strike on Saturday against a cut of 39 paisas in their commission on the sale of a litre gasoline (petrol).Fuel shortage will get more severe in the country as the petroleum dealers, who are also running Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) filling-stations, have decided to discontinue the sale of CNG from Saturday.
Fortune at stake as Indian government weighs gas prices
Global oil majors such as Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron Corp are ready to pour billions of dollars into India's energy sector - but only if the government stops meddling and allows private firms to sell gas at market prices.
Russia: EU's protection of energy sector 'nearly hysterical'
Russia has reacted with anger at EU plans to prevent foreign companies from uncontrolled access to the European energy sector, warning that any discriminative measure will be legally challenged.
China takes "urgent" energy challenge to masses
China's leaders have called on ordinary people to help tackle the "urgent" problem of booming energy demand and massive pollution, which they warn threatens growth, launching a huge propaganda campaign on Saturday.
Regulated gas still cheaper in New Brunswick
Gas regulation has come under fire again from the provincial Liberals, who want to know why Nova Scotians had to pay 11 cents more per litre yesterday than New Brunswickers.
City Dwellers Live Longer, Save More by Driving Less
New York City, long seen as a mecca of hedonism and self-destructive indulgence, has witnessed a startling transformation over the past few years: life expectancy has increased dramatically to 78.6 years, nine months longer than the life expectancy in the rest of the US. Even more surprisingly, New York City's life expectancy is increasing at a faster rate than in other parts of the country; in 2004 alone, New Yorkers gained five months of life on average, far outpacing the national average increase of a month or two a year.
Citrus Waste To Ethanol Gains Momentum
An FPL Group subsidiary announced plans to develop a first-of-its-kind commercial plant to convert orange and grapefruit waste into ethanol that will be sold to Florida motorists at gasoline pumps.
UK oil production continues decline
The year-on-year decline in oil and gas production in the UK sector of the North Sea continued in June, dropping by a further combined 12.9 per cent, according to the latest monthly report by the Royal Bank of Scotland.Oil production was down 6.1 percent on the month to 1,263,382 barrels per day and down 11.4 percent compared with June 2006. UK natural gas production fell more sharply by 20.3 percent compared to May and by 14.7 percent on the year.
OPEC Cuts Have Buoyed Price, But At A Cost
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries crude oil output cuts have succeeded in stabilizing prices, but likely haven't cut deeply enough into global stockpiles to sanction a production increase at the group's Sept. 11 meeting.
Kazakhstan wants hefty compensation for cost overruns and delays at the giant Kashagan oil field and favours replacing Italy's Eni with a local company as operator, its deputy finance minister was quoted as saying.
First Things First: Let’s Mine the Coal
We can talk about windmills, solar panels and biomass, and they undoubtedly are in our future. But those energy sources cannot meet the nation's growing energy demands now or in the foreseeable future. Nuclear energy may take on an expanded role, but not everyone will welcome it.Our leaders must step up and tell the nation the truth: We need coal. It must remain a major source for electricity, and it certainly could and should be a source for motor fuels.
Oil-producing nations will have to control gas flaring
"According to satellite data, in 2006, oil producing countries and companies burned about 170 billion cubic metres (BCM) of natural gas worldwide or nearly five trillion cubic feet," said a latest World Bank report released yesterday, a copy of which was obtained by Gulf News."That is equivalent to 27 per cent of total US natural gas consumption and 5.5 per cent of total global production of natural gas for the year. If the gas had been sold in the US instead of being flared, the total US market value would have been about $40 billion. Gas flaring also emits some 400 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions."
Talks on climate change impact in Africa
Climate change could worsen Africa's struggle to feed itself, but simple steps — a cistern to catch rainwater, a solar panel, or hardier seeds for crops — could help the continent's subsistence farms, specialists and activists said Friday.
Global warming – who pays and when?
Maybe scientists can afford to debate the pace and extent of climate change, but the evidence of potential harm is clear enough that economic decisions must be made soon. Those economic choices mean weighing several questions:Should countries emphasize cutting their greenhouse-gas emissions or adapting to a warmer world? Should they spend on developing new technologies or capping emissions? What's the trade-off between the economic costs and benefits of aggressive action?
Yet another important consideration: How to accommodate the needs of developing countries, many of which may face the worst effects of warming but have the fewest resources to battle it.
Industrial nations agree step to new climate pact
Industrial nations agreed on Friday to consider stiff 2020 goals for cutting greenhouse gases in a small step towards a new long-term pact to fight climate change.
More people, more concrete, and lots more heat in Phoenix
An 'urban heat island' effect, fed by the city's growth, is trapping heat and making temperatures soar.
Like it or not, our future is nuclear. You don't remember the debate? That's the power of good PR.
For advocates of environmentally friendly energy, it seems like it has taken forever for ordinary consumers to buy into the idea of renewable power sources. As a society, many people believe we're basically giving the planet a black lung. But it seems that while we know what to do to fix it, we don't. Why?
Demand Outstrips Supply for Clean Energy Deals
Despite keen interest and deep pockets, demand for clean energy-related investments is so high that cleantech investors around the world are having a hard time spending all the cash they have at their fingertips, according to a report by research group New Energy Finance.
Oilsands project hit by delays, higher costs
CALGARY - Construction of the Long Lake oilsands project is about 90% complete, but labour struggles, including a failure this summer to find enough pipe fitters, has led to a delay of between six months and a year and to a fourth cost bump in two years.Nexen Inc. and OPTI Canada Inc. now say Long Lake's first phase will cost as much as $6-billion to build, a 10%-to-15% hike from April when the 50-50 partners revealed an increase to $5.3-billion from $4.6-billion.
The development was expected to cost $3.4-billion and be producing synthetic crude early next year when it was sanctioned in 2004.
PetroChina, Sinopec cut gasoline exports
PetroChina and Sinopec, China's two biggest oil companies, may continue to cut gasoline exports in September following a huge reduction in August, the China Securities Journal reported on Friday.The two oil giants may even halt gasoline exports next month, the newspaper cited an anonymous market source as saying.
Gas prices may rise into September
Gasoline prices rose again at the pump Friday, extending a trend that analysts believe will continue until mid-September because of an end-of-season shortage of summer blend gasoline.
New cars seen raising gas mileage levels
New vehicles are expected to set records for average gas mileage in 2007, driven by improved technology and demand for fuel-efficient vehicles, the government reported.
Greece, Bulgaria turn down Russia’s demands about Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline
Greece and Bulgaria refused to sell their shares in the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline project to Russia.
Peak Oil Passnotes: Where Do We Go From Here?
As we normally take a look at factors hustling the oil market, like storms, war, debt and fiscal madness, it is time we stopped. Let us have a quick look at where the oil market actually stands at the moment.In general the market is in backwardation; that is crude oil at around $74 per barrel for WTI is higher than the market expects it to be in the coming months. But the curve, the line of the graph, is in fact very flat. In other words this says two things about where traders and institutions think the oil price is going to go.
The sudden fall of the Berlin Wall showed that power structures collapse when the multitude swarms against them. Unfortunately, without advanced planning, such opportunities do not lead to positive outcomes. If we are approaching a similar breakthrough in the West, we require an alternative vision and practical systems that support a shift to a healthier way of life. Some stirrings in this direction include movements like Transition Town in the UK, where local communities are preparing themselves for the effects of peak oil and climate change.
In Colorado, Real Estate Occupies Two Different Universes
...Others are less optimistic. Courtney White, an opinion writer for Headwaters News, joins the chorus of skeptics who believe rising energy costs will spell doom for the mountain resort boom. It’s an idea gaining currency among peak oil adherents who worry the days of cheap oil are dwindling and with them, the boom economy fueled by cheap travel and cheaper imports.“Think about the two-hour one-way daily commute into Los Angeles for work, or the costs associated in reaching that second home in the woods, or just driving to the grocery store,” he writes. “And it’s not just about driving – fossil fuel permeates nearly every aspect of suburban development and maintenance. When costs rise, we may reconsider our behavior. We may have to.”
OPEC exports 'to jump to 580,000 bpd'
OPEC oil exports, excluding Angola, will jump 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to September 15, mostly on Western oil demand, an analyst who estimates future shipments said on Thursday.Roy Mason of consultancy Oil Movements estimated OPEC 11 seaborne exports would rise to 24.21 million bpd, compared with 23.63 million bpd in the four weeks to August 18.
"US stocks are still high, but they are going down fast. They (refiners) need long-haul oil for the peak fourth quarter demand period," Mason said of the rise.
Russia To Deploy New Intercontinental Missiles
The 22-metre Topol-M is an intercontinental ballistic missile carrying a single warhead. It was first developed during the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union and was later upgraded. It can be launched either from silos or from mobile launchers which can be camouflaged and hidden in forests.
Along with the multiple-warhead RS-24, to be deployed in the next few years, it will form the backbone of Russia’s nuclear armoury and help bolster armed forces eroded over years of post-Soviet decline.
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/theworld/20...
Honestly, can you blame them?
take it from their point of view. bush is planning on extending his hyped missile shield tech to Europe(putting aside all the evidence that showed the tests of the shield were fabricated), this shield would give them the ability to strike without the fear of retaliation.
Of course Russia is going to try to build up it's arsenal again. in the hopes that they can swarm the shield some of their counter attack gets through.
Arkansawyer
When Cheney bombs Teheran, Moscow becomes the World Capitol of the Planet's Energy.
I understodd the missile defence system would have a very tough job shooting down a missile, but apparantly they are pretty good against satelites. Can anyone confirm or deny this?
As long as people are going to buy things they don't really need with money they don't actually have, America wil remain in a credit crisis.
Arkansawyer
China just showed how easy it is to take out satellites.
One detonation in the right place will render nearly all orbits null and void.
http://celestrak.com/events/asat.asp
The first acknowledged maneuver to avoid a piece of debris from the Chinese ASAT test occurred on 2007 June 22 when flight controllers at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center briefly fired the thrusters on their TERRA satellite to avoid a 7 percent chance of being struck the following day:
* Space.com, "NASA's Terra Satellite Moved to Avoid Chinese ASAT Debris"
Several analysts have suggested that the debris from this event would be relatively short-lived and only remain in orbit for ten years or less. Unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth. A detailed analysis of the lifetime of the debris cataloged so far—using the Lifetime model implemented in STK—shows that just under 7 percent of the debris (135 pieces) will have decayed within ten years and 79 percent will still remain in orbit 100 years from now. The majority of the debris from this one event will remain a hazard for centuries to come. (Note: This analysis was only done for 2,030 of the 2,087 pieces catalogued to date since it appears that 57 pieces are currently missing from the catalog.)
In Russia's continuing policy of seizing private assets, they are trying to locate and arrest another Russian oil capitalist:
http://www.forbes.com/business/energy/2007/08/31/gutseriyev-russneft-put...
oh stop. if you actually look at what these guys did post fall of soviet union it's actually better then him getting lynched by the millions of Russians he screwed.
Do you really think that what happened post Soviet-collapse is capitalism, I really don't know what to say. It is a bit like saying that Gaddafi's sons are capitalists or that Suharto's family is capitalist.
Is it a total coincidence that 80% of the oligarchs happened to belong to a faith that encompasses one half of one percent of Russia's population? I'll let you guess which religion that happens to be.
Alfred: You mean it is like saying Goldman Sachs is a capitalist enterprise?
i find anti-semetism offensive. You really need to go find a neo-nazi website Bob Ebersole
The ethnicity or religion of the oligarchs is one thing, the economic system they have in Russia is another. There is no doubt that it is capitalism, whether the capital is in the hands of the oligarchs or in the hands of the bureaucrat capitalists around Putin.
I laugh at people who think the Jews control everything. My wife is Jewish, as is my son's wife and her family. Her mother works as a sales clerk and her father as a security guard. He was UPS driver before he retired.
There are certainly rich Jews, but at the very top of the heap here you mostly find my people -- WASPs. Unless Cheney converted? But this is all quite beside the point. Capitalism isn't about religion or ethnicity -- it's about money. The billionaires of whatever background love to stir animosities between people. Cheney has no affinity whatsoever for his Appalachian kinfolk, nor does the elite of any backrgound.
A lot of anti-semitism is aroused by Israel's criminal actions just as a lot of anti-American sentiment is aroused by the US gov't bombing the crap out of anything or - one that moves. But the Israelis are pawns in the hands of their elite just as we are of ours. Norman Finkestein points out that a lot of the Russian "Jews" in Israel are not even Jewish!
Think interests, think economics -- don't think ethnicity or religion. End of rant.
Really well put. Thanks. Good ending.
matt
Thank Dave - and Matt,
Second the sentiment.
And possibly add, sometimes the "interests", as well as the "economics", are conducted via connections people have. And what people believe (or imagine) themselves to have in common with others may be part of that. Though the beliefs about commonality may be artifacts, too - as opposed to motives.
I think any statement calculated to build up hatred of others is against my principles and values, and I'd prefer not to see it here. We all need to work together.
Unfortunately, I find neo-cons distinctly unlovable.
Best Hopes for uniting 99.4% of us in a common struggle,
Alan
In the 80s, someone (probably Arthur C Clarke) pointed out that the Russians could destroy the Star Wars satellites by throwing a bucket of nails out of the Mir space station.
thats because satellites are easy to hit. take the orbit and determine when is the best time to launch to send something to hit it. The orbit is either geostationary or on a set path making the knowledge of where it will be easy.
warheads on the other hand are more chaotic. shooting down a missile is more like you trying to knock a bullet out of the air with another bullet, mathematically possible but due to the time scale involved it's not practically possible.
You need one of these babies,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_High_Energy_Laser
Coming to an all electric SUV near you soon!
i have heard of those, they are still NOT fast enough in everything but the speed of the laser. they heavily rely on radar to target. as fast as the servos on the emitter point are they still can't move that fast. not to mention the charge up time for the laser, and the fact that the laser MUST hit stay on the target for a little while to heat the projectile enough to make it blow.
Also, consider that chemical lasers like these do not run on electricity at all. A chemical laser is like a rocket engine. Explosive fuels go in, laser light comes out.
The laser you mentioned burns $3,000 of chemicals per shot, including deuterium which costs abut $20 a gallon.
Any energy weapon, by definition according to thermodynamics, consumes more energy than it produces. No matter what kind of laser weapon, each shot requires burning more fuel energy than the energy in the laser.
Accurate enough. The question then becomes - why did the Chinese undertake this relatively low tech. test and create so much space debris? Just to screw the world for the fun of it?
Also to demonstrate that your precious navigation satellites and spy satellites won't live much longer than aircraft carriers in a real shooting war.
The original poster (TrueKaiser) implied that, that is already obvious, i.e., it is easy to kinetically destroy satellites and create space debris. The folks in the armed forces know it - was the intent to also make it obvious to Joe Blow on main street?? - and how about the 2200 pieces of space debris that was created and will be around for 100s of years?
Was the intent to make space unusable for others?
As far as a shooting war goes - ICBMs have inertial guidance systems and are independent of Satellites and GPS. The Chinese have many of these, as do many others in the rest of the world. So destroying satellites will not prevent retaliation.
Below is a link on inertial guidance of ICBMs.
http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/Airs.html
The Chinese aren't trying to project force over the entire world, only the US is. They would be quite content for now just to sweep the US away from their periphery. Thus, they really don't need to know the exact location of something in Germany or Peru or Cameroon -- just in China proper or a few hundred miles beyond their border. Thus, they could get along just fine with every GPS satellite knocked out; it is the US that would be in trouble. Ditto with the spy satellites. They would probably like to spy on the US via satellite, but they undoubtedly have more and better human intelligence over here than we have over there, so they could get by without their spy satellites if need be.
The only satellites that the Chinese really need are their geostationary ones. It is a little harder to knock those out, for they are a lot farther away. The funny thing is, though, that you could do so without putting most other satellites in geostationary orbit at risk - partially because there is considerable distance separating each, but mostly because the debris would be blown into a non-geostationary orbit.
Knock out our cable TV -- now there's the ultimate weapon for you; hit the US where it REALLY hurts!
Agree.
Arkansawyer
And of course, none of this will matter after say 5 Multi Megaton explosions over say 5 Financial Centers, Civilization will revert to something near the Stone Age.
A subprime implosion over say 70% of the US population would achieve the same effect.
Atom bombs won the last world war, survival knives will win the next.
LANGUAGE WARNING, do not click on the link if you are going to whine about it.
http://www.exile.ru/2007-August-14/feature_story.html
Musashi
that is one of the funniest analyses ever, references to excrement notwithstanding...
Yah, they calls 'em as they smells 'em...
Actually, an insightful analysis written in about the most insulting way possible, which is just what the war-mongers deserve.
Errol in Miami
Good stuff. Hyperpower = all hype and no power. LOL.
The War Nerd is even funnier.
I was just reading an older article re Chavez.
http://www.exile.ru/2006-October-06/venezuela_enchilada_of_evil.html
You can click on "browse author" to read the old articles.
Thank you Musashi,
For my new favorite site, eXile.
Freakin hilarious, and dead on accuracy.
good stuff. (always liked those pesky ruskies)
Off now to read archives...
Hi Musashi,
Thanks for the warning :), (I may be the only one to take full advantage and pass...)
re: "Atom bombs won the last war..."
A couple of reviews of the book "Racing the Enemy" by Tsyuyoshi Hesegawa, taken off Amazon's website:
"Los Angeles Times : As Tsuyoshi Hasegawa has shown definitively in his new book, Racing the Enemy--and many other historians have long argued--it was the Soviet Union's entry into the Pacific war on Aug. 8, two days after the Hiroshima bombing, that provided the final 'shock' that led to Japan's capitulation."
--Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin
"In summer 1945 Truman and his advisers set a foreign policy course that demanded American use of doomsday weapons not only against Japan but, indirectly, against humanity itself. In this groundbreaking book, Hasegawa argues that the atomic bombs were not as decisive in bringing about Japan's unconditional surrender as Soviet entry into the Pacific War. His challenging study reveals the full significance of Truman's decision not to associate Stalin with the Potsdam Declaration and offers fresh evidence of how Japan's leaders viewed Stalin's entrance into the war as the decisive factor.
Others have shown that Truman missed opportunities to secure Japan's unconditional surrender without an invasion or the nuclear destruction of Japanese cities. But few have so thoroughly documented the complex evasions and Machiavellism of Japanese, Russian, and, especially, American leaders in the process of war termination."
--Herbert P. Bix, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of Hirohito and the Making of Modern Japan
http://www.amazon.com/Racing-Enemy-Stalin-Truman-Surrender/dp/0674016939...
Of course, this doesn't mean that survival knives won't win the next one.
Just to say, the way things work may (emphasis) be more complex then we imagine and hence, allow us the tiniest sliver of possibility for a different outcome.
True, one never knows how it will play out. The best laid plans almost never survive first contact. All one can do is watch the trends, conserve options and stay agile from any possible point of view, ie physical, economical, logistical, etc.
Oh, come on guys! All this talk about the USA shooting down Russian missiles. Dick Cheney is the President of the United States - the greatest nation on Earth. If you can't trust Dick Cheney, who can you trust?
And if worse comes to worse and we have to invade Russia to spread democracy, you can be sure that when our troops march into Moscow, the Russian people (if any are left) will shower us with flowers, just like the Iraqis did in Baghdad.
So have some faith in our leaders.
I fully trust President Cheney to do the right thing.
Hallelujah,
Robert
Ukrainan,Russians and Georgians comprise a HUGE percent of the new immigrants here in portland ore,except,One must remember they have a whole different way of looking at the world,and tend to settle their own "bidness"without getting the law involved.
Its too late to bring democracy to russia....they fooled everyone,and moved here at the time the wall came down