DrumBeat: September 2, 2007


Big gamble can yield bigger payoff

Exploratory wells take several months to drill, and 65 percent or more fail. Koen projects a 1-in-12 chance of success in the Bob North field probe.

Chevron spends $500,000 to $850,000 a day to lease the Discoverer Deep Seas. The daily cost depends on how much hardware, what type of work, and how many people are needed on a given day.

The well will cost about $100 million, regardless of whether it produces oil.

Bangladesh: No Gas for Eight Proposed Large & Medium Power Plants

The Power Division of Bangladesh is set to face a major setback in implementing at least eight large and medium power plant projects to generate a total of 1,700MW electricity as Petrobangla has informed the Power Development Board that it will not be possible to supply gas to the plants.


Yemeni price protests turn violent

Government officials say the rise is due to a sharp increase in the prices of commodities such as wheat in global markets.

...Four out of 10 Yemenis live on less than $2 a day, according to Britain's department for international development, which says Yemen's oil, its main earnings source, is expected to dry up by 2015.


Iran’s President Says 3,000 Centrifuges Are Running

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Sunday Iran had met a planned target of installing and running 3,000 atomic centrifuges used in enriching uranium, Iranian news agencies reported.


A symbiotic energy relationship

The tiny country of Denmark is emerging as a model for Texas in the booming field of wind energy, just as Texas has been for Denmark in the traditional energy businesses of oil and gas.


West Bank Boys Dig a Living in Settler Trash

As the truck unloads, the children pounce on the garbage like flies. Some swing aloft on the hydraulic pistons that open the back, then drop onto the mound of trash to grab a piece of metal, a crushed can, a soda bottle or a stinking T-shirt.

One boy slips and disappears for a moment beneath the garbage as the truck lumbers forward to dump more of its load. He scrambles up again, losing his footing on a pile of animal intestines, grabbing onto a thicket of shrubbery cut from someone’s garden.

Another boy finds a small nylon Israeli flag and tries to tear it with his teeth; yet another unearths a small lilac umbrella, which he holds over his head and shows off to his friends. Most dig diligently for metal, which they dump into the ripped nylon sacks they carry.


Petrocaribe treaty sees closer energy embrace with Caracas

The PetroCaribe treaty which Guyana has not yet signed would draw it into a closer energy embrace with Venezuela and this along with the absence of any mention of bio-fuels which Georgetown is keen to develop may cause it to think carefully before adding its signature.


Hurricane Felix Gathers Strength, Passes Near Bonaire

Felix was about 60 miles northeast of Aruba, moving west-northwest at 18 mile per hour, the Center said. It may brush past Honduras before making landfall in Belize on Sept. 5, according to the Center's five-day forecast. If Felix remains south of the path of Hurricane Dean, the first Atlantic hurricane of the season, oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico probably won't be affected.


In Cuba, a Politically Incorrect Love of the Frigidaire

The island’s economic isolation, compounded by a United States embargo in place since the early 1960s, has made a necessity of preserving technology from before the revolution.


No guarantees about heating costs

Experts are hesitant to speculate what heating oil and other fuel prices will be this winter, citing the vagaries of world markets and unpredictability of weather.

"The trouble is, there is no way of knowing," said Joseph Broyles, energy program manager for New Hampshire's Office of Energy and Planning.


Pope Leads ‘Eco-Friendly’ Youth Rally

Pope Benedict, leading the Catholic Church's first 'eco-friendly' youth rally, on Sunday told up to half a million people that world leaders must make courageous decisions to save the planet "before it is too late."


Home grown apples can save the planet...

A few weeks ago, the climate activist and inventor Dave Wilks told me he’d hit on a new way to describe the warming of our atmosphere: it’s equivalent to nearly five Hiroshima bombs exploding per second, he said, and the rate is rising exponentially. I’ve also spoken to experts who believe there’s another threat facing us, no less significant than global warming: the end of oil. Our lives depend on ever-increasing amounts of cheap energy, and synthetic petroleum byproducts, and when oil production peaks we’re in trouble. Some believe that will happen as early as 2010.

And it will all, of course, be exacerbated by population growth. Last week researchers at a United Nations forum in Iceland said to keep pace with an increasing population more food will have to be produced world-wide in the next 50 years than during the past 10,000 years combined. We can look forward to economic collapse and literally billions of people starving to death.


No holiday for nation's 24/7 'energy slaves'

From oil alone, 150 energy slaves serve the average person in the United States. The electrical line worker drives a truck everywhere; the backhoe makes digging a foundation in flinty soil seem effortless compared to digging by hand in sand; and the nurse uses bandages and medicines made with and from oil, in a hospital heated with oil.

But now the slaves are starting to slip away.


Expect no relief from holiday hot spell

Day Five of the year's longest heat wave sent people fleeing to the beaches this holiday weekend as thousands were left without power in their homes and the promise of relief was still days away.

Late Saturday, power was restored to about 1,600 Eagle Rock households that had been without power since Friday night and to 2,500 in the Los Feliz area that lost power earlier Saturday. Citywide, roughly 5,700 customers lost power Saturday, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power officials said. Roughly 4,500 of Southern California Edison's 4.8 million customers were without power Friday.


Japan's oil products demand may have yet to recover

Japan posted an increase in oil products output in July for the first time in 14 months, but it may be premature to interpret this as a sign of demand recovery from Asia's second-largest consumer.

Even though the uptick came alongside a jump in crude oil imports and a fall in products inventories, the country's refiners may simply be preparing to rebuild their stockpiles after the plant maintenance season; more data will be needed in the coming months for demand growth indications.


Biofuels Don't Have The Juice To Go The Distance

Gasoline's EROEI ranges between 6-to-1 and 10-to-1, says Cutler Cleveland, director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies at Boston University. In other words, we get anywhere from six to 10 gallons of gasoline for every gallon we use to find oil, pump it out of the ground and refine it. But the EROEI of corn-based ethanol, the most common U.S. biofuel, is a mere 1.34-to-1, the Agriculture Department says. So even though an acre of corn can make 360 gallons of ethanol, only 90 gallons of that is "new" fuel.


Bush's ethanol dreams make corn a hot commodity

When Americans fire up their grills for late summer barbecues over the next few weeks, a cloud will be hanging over them in the form of higher prices for steak, chicken and ribs.


Beyond Wind and Solar, a New Generation of Clean Energy

Oregon Iron Works has the feel of a World War II-era shipyard, with sparks flying from welders' torches and massive hydraulic presses flattening large sheets of metal. But this factory floor represents the cutting edge of American renewable-energy technology.

The plant is assembling a test buoy for Finavera Renewables, a Canadian company that hopes to harness ocean waves off the coast of Oregon to produce electricity for U.S. consumers. And Finavera is not Iron Works' only alternative-energy client: So many companies have approached it with ideas that it has created a "renewable-energy projects manager" to oversee them.


Power crazy

Across Canada, provincial governments are aggressively following the call of green power and energy conservation. No watt of electricity is exempt, from mandated fluorescent light bulbs to subsidies for windmill farms to the campaign to rehabilitate the granddaddy of power boondoggles, nuclear energy, out of long-term care.


Planet of the apes needs to get real

One of the conflicts between the Earth-centred universe and the Copernican model was the doctrine of heavenly, or "super-lunary", perfection. The church argued that while Earth was subject to human imperfection, up in heaven the trains all run on time. When astronomers observed the inconvenient truth that the moon is riddled with bumps, the geocentrists invented an invisible material that smoothed the bumps and made the "real" surface as perfect as God intended.

This is unprovable nonsense, like the idea that Generation IV nuclear reactors are guaranteed "fail-safe", and thus the cure-all for global warming.


Anthropogenic Climate Change (podcast)

The main knock against anthropogenic climate change — more or less unchanged since the 1980s — is that a cabal of cunning computer modelers have managed to dupe, co-opt, bamboozle, or intimidate climate scientists into believing fantastic, yet unsubstantiated, allegations. Recently put forward by the redoubtable Freeman Dyson, this critique also, unfortunately, picks up a certain amount of support in the progressive community. To help dispel these arguments and the confusion they still cause I turned to Dr. Chris Rapley, who knows as much as anybody about actually measuring climate change. It was a great pleasure to hear the facts from a primary source, and I'm very grateful to Dr. Rapley for talking with me on this and a range of other important topics. Please listen carefully and redistribute widely. Total runtime an hour and fourteen minutes.


Climate change and N. America farms to be studied

Iowa State University researchers will join a study of climate change to produce mid-century projections by late next year of the likely regional effects on North American farms from global warming.

"There is no question now that the climate is changing on a global scale," said Gene Takle, an Iowa State University professor of geological and atmospheric sciences who will lead a study to project North American climate from 2040 to 2070.


Greek forest fires could be CO2 threat

Greece's huge forest fires have been blamed by some on global warming, but satellite images of smoke plumes drifting as far as Africa prompt the question: are forests a major source of greenhouse gas?


The green faith effect

Solar panels are becoming a common connection for Christian churches, Hindu temples, Calgary synagogues and Toronto mosques as faith groups across Canada act on the so-called Green Rule: "Do unto the Earth as you would have it do unto you."


Climate change ticks ever closer

On the Leslie St. spit, signs of global warming are being picked right from the feathers of migratory birds. And the ticks now spreading north carry with them the spectre of Lyme disease.


No APEC deal on climate change targets: Howard

Asia-Pacific countries will not agree on binding targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at a major summit this week, Australian Prime Minister John Howard said Sunday.

Iraq Needs $20 to $30 Billion invested in oil industry

Now, with the U.S.-led reconstruction phase nearing its close, Iraq will need to spend $27 billion more for its electrical system and $20 billion to $30 billion for oil infrastructure.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/01/AR200709...

No Hope,

Alan

And the President said to Kit Carson:
"Take my best four horsemen please
And ride out to the four directions,
Make my great lands barren for me"

Kit Carson said to the President
"You've made your offer sweet
I'll accept this task you've set for me
My fall's not yet complete"

Kit Carson knew he had a job to do
Like other jobs he had before
He'd made the grade
He learned to trade in famine, pestilence, and war

Kit Carson was a hero to some
With his poison and his flame
But somewhere there's a restless ghost
That used to bear his name

Song lyrics from Bruce Cockburn's song "Kit Carson" from "nothing but a burning light," 1991

More like Custer. "Where did all ............ come from?

I have read blood and thunder. A book about the taming of the west. Much revolved around Kit Carson. A must read imho to get the full scope of small scale regional war, forced starvation, etc.
A very very good read.

Washington DC Metro Blasted for not supporting TOD

Metro's 86 rail stations sit on some of the Washington region's most valuable real estate. But the transit agency has failed to encourage developers to build homes, offices and stores at the trains' doorsteps, projects that might coax more commuters from their cars and provide the system with needed cash

One excuse:

Land use remains a local political decision." He said, for example, that development at Fairfax stations took off slowly because the county was overly focused on providing parking for commuters

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/01/AR200709...

Despite lack of support, DC Metro has significant Transit Oriented Development. The recently built New York Avenue Station on the Red Line immediately caused a half dozen office buildings to spring up. Ridership on existing lines increases every year.

Best Hopes for TOD (both of them),

Alan

The transit authorities in Mexico City built shopping centers at all of its subway locations and partially finaned the service with rents from the shp and restaurant owners. Its a great deal for everyone, the shops have millions delivered to their doorsteps daily, the commuters have convenience and partial subsidy of their rides. Because the shop owners help provide security, the subway has to hire fewer transit guards and the shop owners help with the cleaning so that they have a neat business. The only real problem ?-getting on and off the subway. Its so crowded that I think its the Mexican national body contact sport.

Mexico, DF is the most crowded city in North America. It has incredible pollution problems, but its also both the financial center and Capital, about 1 in 4 Mexicans either lives there or in the cities near the capital and it has every problem possible together with some magnificent public places. Without the public transit it would be totally unliveable, just as our cities will be without good transit after the peak Bob Ebersole

Bummer--I thought it was being blasted for not supporting The Oil Drum.

Felix CAT 3 strength already - probably updated at 11.

NOAA jet reporting back 129 MPH winds(131 is CAT4), eye wall closed and eye visible.

98L still tracking west with good circulation but constrained by dry air and shear. That will diminish in the next 48-72 when it will likely form into a TD.

Far too early to be sure of either tracks so won't speculate.

Felix is pretty much guaranteed to become a major, 98L has potential.

Back to your regular scheduled programming. :-P

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45atc2.cgi?time=2007090200&field=Se...

Models can be wrong but you always have to cringe when one does this...

The models of 98L are not very nice either :/

Felix...now forecasted to be CAT5..definite....given the time before land fall.

Looks like Felix will be more destructive than DEAN...

For those that think this is a poor hurricane season:

6 named storms
2 hurricanes
BOTH MAJORS.

Still 9 weeks of peak destruction on the way. Not so poor a season. Maybe for the USA so far, but that can change (not that I wish it).

98L still looks good for the 7th named storm and another major, IMO. Models show a more northern course for 98L.

Sept 10th, is approx the mid of the season...so 7 named, 3 hurricanes(iff 98L develops). They predicted 13-16 named, 6 hurricanes, and ONLY 2 majors.

They look right on target.

BTW, For those watching Felix the tropical discussion has it turning north after crossing the Yucatan...but still days out.

The Peak of Hurricane Activity is this week. Good luck with seeing another 8-9 storms...

So we are halfway through hurricane season and halfway to the predicted number of storms.

Do you ever have anything useful to post or do you just like bloviating?

So PartyGuy, are you more of a global warming denier or a peak oil denier? With Category Fives becoming routine occurrences for the first time in history (two in the Gulf, one on Taiwan), both these activities must take more and more of your precious time away from explaining that Iraq is completely different than Vietnam - whoops, I mean that Iraq teaches us the lesson of why we should have kept the Vietnam War going forever.

But keep doing what you can to buy another Friedman unit for a system and ideology that has turned like AIDS against the very liberties that it claims to defend. I say, the sooner we collapse, the sooner we start learning how to govern ourselves (in multiple senses of the word) again.

I agree that the flow of category 5 storms in the Atlantic basin is a new and disturbing trend, but I would caution you against drawing in any information about Pacific storms for these discussions. There is certainly warming there, but it'll be much harder to tease out signal from noise, as the Pacific is bigger, warmer, and has fewer barriers, both in terms of land mass and upper level air flow, unlike the Atlantic/Caribbean complex of seas.

I'm neither. I'm only urging you to show a bit of caution, instead of going all out on the doomer predictions that make us look silly and drive people away. PO is becoming more and more mainstream, but its not because of people like you who automatically call anyone who isnt in lock-step agreement with you a denier and a moron...

Not ANYONE. He called YOU a denier and a moron. Start referencing links. Show documentation. Prove him wrong. (If you need someone to show you how to copy and paste, I'm sure someone on this site would be willing to help you.)

He more than likely read what I wrote below calling him ignorant. But ignorance is vastly different so I linked information to him to explain how serious the canes are.

Not to mention his comments made me quite angry given the death toll we are looking at here.

I agree with you. As best I can see he is just a Troll. He never supports anything he says with links, references or documentation. Most every position I have ever seen him take is contrary to referenced documentation provided by the position he is opposing, never countering it with anything other than his rants.

That is my experience also.

Hurricane Felix put on an incredibly ferocious burst of intensification last night, winding up into a small but potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. Felix now holds the record for shortest time for an Atlantic storm to intensify to Category 5 strength. Felix required just 51 hours to reach Category 5 strength after it started as a tropical depression. That is a truly remarkable intensification rate, considering most tropical cyclones take 3-5 days to organize into a Category 1 hurricane. The tracking coordinates for Felix show that it has spent more of its life at Category 5 strength than any other classification.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum...

IS the 2007 the year that G*D has chosen to batter CANATRELL?

It looks (Models show) another major hurricane heading straight across the Yucatan at CANATRELL.

WTH? What are the odds...really?

This one may be more direct a hit and a stronger storm...as the long range models have it still a strong CAT1/2 coming across.

Anywho...really...what are the odds?

FELIX...another soon to be retired name.

And we all know how the predictions of Dean being a strong Cat 3 when it hit Cantrell turned out!

Hey...who cares. I am not making the predictions...just echoing the forecasters here for those that care.

Dude seriously do you not study history? Or are you just ignorant... There is several factors that come into play that the models cannot adjust for. As of right now it seems a large majority of the models I have looked at say felix is a cat3 and the models said cat 2 hitting not 5.. People are wrong models are wrong...

Main message here is PREPARE FOR THE WORST!!! hope for the best or you are going to be up the creek without a paddle. I have seen myself personally what these storms can do during my childhood growing up in Florida and experienced a cat5 landfall of Andrew destruction.

If you had common decency you would be praying for whatever folks are in the crosshairs as their day is about to go bad.. If it hits where predicted slows down as the NHC says right now we could be looking at 8000+ people dead. Lighten up man sarcasm gets you nowhere.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Fifi

Yeah its that bad.. Mudslides and what not do it in good just like Haiti.. Look at the power of Fifi too.. cat2.. Although you do not need high winds for incredible destruction Allison shall point that out too go look it up.

It looks (Models show) another major hurricane heading straight across the Yucatan at CANATRELL.

WTH? What are the odds...really?

Higher than you might expect. For reasons they are only just beginning to understand, it's not unusual for hurricanes to follow similar paths, during a season and even across seasons. For example, a few years ago, the hurricanes were all going up the eastern seaboard. They've slowly been shifting west. Remember that year when a bunch of them hit Florida? Then we had the Gulf in the crosshairs a couple of years ago. Now they've shifted even further west.

...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES...
625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N...72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

=====

From: CalculatedRisk
9/2/2007 8:06:33 PM
RECON Aborted. Too much turbulence. Wow.

You know we sit here and discuss these monsters...category 5 hurricanes and just discuss the predicted paths and impacts on oil infrastructure, but these beasts really just hypnotize me...they are fearsome, but somewhat beautiful in their symmetry. They are easy to grasp from a satellite photo, but to make the leap down to the level of reality, I'm not sure I can fathom the experience.

You will have to excuse my tangent...I grew up in the Midwest where tornadoes were a constant fascination...if you've ever seen one...they will freeze you in your steps for a minute or so...then you snap out of it and run.

A tragic-comedy video about peak oil by investigative reporter John Hockenberry. Highly Recommended. I couldn't stop laughing as the intrepid reporter visits the High Sierras of California to find out if anyone knows what "peak oil" is.

A Fit of Peak

This is why that I continue to write about the subject although many here will assume that the peak has already been passed.

I'm still waiting for NPR to "get religion" about peak oil and stop interviewing Daniel Yergin, just as they have with climate change this year.

When NPR gets religion on PO we will already have attacked Iran and the Straits will be closed.

Please expound upon the Straight of Hormuz closure dynamics. I read up on the Russian built SS-N-22 Sunburn the Iranians have.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/moskit.htm

http://www.rense.com/general59/theSunburniransawesome.htm

The sledge hammer in the hands of the U.S. Navy would seem calculated to eliminate this threat.

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/9/1/183018/1527

OK, this is a little OT for the one line response as poster claims no expertise, but I hope someone who has "seen the elephant" can talk about how something like this might progress. I believe that while the concept of Sunburn v. ship is similar to RPG v. helicopter the less mobile, less concealable nature and support required make these devices more like a vulnerable fighter, at least until the moment they're in the air.

Will President Bush bomb Iran?

The story mentions a US military war game

In the meantime, administration officials are studying the lessons of the recent war game, which was set up to devise a way of weathering an economic storm created by war with Iran. Computer modelling found that if Iran closed the Straits of Hormuz, it would nearly double the world price of oil, knock $161 billion off American GDP in a single quarter, cost one million jobs and slash disposable income by $260 billion a quarter.

The war gamers advocated deploying American oil reserves - good for 60 days - using military force to break the blockade (two US aircraft carrier groups and half of America's 277 warships are already stationed close to Iran), opening up oil development in Alaska, and ending import tariffs on ethanol fuel. If the government also subsidised fuel for poorer Americans, the war-gamers concluded, it would mitigate the financial consequences of a conflict.

The Heritage report concludes: "The results were impressive. The policy recommendations eliminated virtually all of the negative outcomes from the blockade."

ending import tariffs on ethanol fuel

Read "destabilizing Brazil due to food price increases as we've done with Mexico"

subsidised fuel for poorer Americans

Read "engaged in some politically acceptable welfare for the oil companies, pushing demand destruction off their backs and onto the taxpayers"

Not directly spoken ... how much of global gasoline refining is in Iran? How much is needed there? We would certainly tear up their refining facilities ... but that is the equivalent to torching the neighbor's place ... when you live in a row house.

Peak Stupidity is the legacy of the Bush administration ... when a dumbass farm boy blogger from Iowa can punch holes in their position with three minutes of thought they're achieved something notable in that regard.

ending import tariffs on ethanol fuel

Read "destabilizing Brazil due to food price increases as we've done with Mexico"

Not quite so. We'll pay more for the ethanol, but can't really transform our ethanol production into food or the other way around in a short timescale. Well, unless you consider sugar to be an important kind of food... But we export most of our sugar anyway.

Planting canae is a slow process that takes the biggest part of a year, and one colects small rewards on the subsequent years until it grows to cover all the area. Not considering the natural aptitude of the land (that may be for something else) and all the preparation that will be simply trashed if you were planning on growing near anything else on it.

Planting anything on where there was canae is also difficult. You'll have a multi-year fight against the previous culture that will try to grow again everytime some rain drops on your land. Pasture is a nice thing to plant after canae, since catle tend to eat it first, but you also can't convert pasture that fast into food (it takes at least 2 years).

marcosdumay

Thanks for the info on sugar cane. Do you have any links on farming it? How much water does it require, yeild per acre, that sort of thing. The coastal plain around southeast Texas used to produce a lot of sugar cane, but I know nothing about it.
Bob Ebersole

Sugar cane. Consider the parallels to the slave trade in the 1700s and 1800s. It was rum then, and guns. Now it will be ethanol and guns. If I recall, Brazil is having to break up what it refers to as slavery on the sugar plantations.

cfm in Gray, ME

Dryki sees where I was going with it - drop the trade barrier with Brazil and suddenly we're sucking sunshine out of a large swath of South America. Less rain forest, less food for Brazilians, and the troubles start. We have to be having an effect there already with the corn to ethanol push here - our vehicles take one giant sized bite out of the community pot of cereals and ... magically ... there is less to eat in that pot.

Well, unless you consider sugar to be an important kind of food"

--Ha! try to deprive the masses of their sugar. It's right up there w/ gasoline.

Matt