DrumBeat: September 3, 2007
Posted by Leanan on September 3, 2007 - 9:04am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oil is America's Achilles heel. We are addicted to it. Every American consumer burns about double what a European consumes - 26 barrels a year for us, 12 for Europeans. We have 5 percent of the world's population and consume 25 percent of the world's oil, and we have only 3 percent of the world's reserves. If you think there is a gas crunch now, marked by the largest oil price spike in a generation, it will be a bagatelle when China and India bring a couple of billion more people on to their highways: They are replicating our love affair with the automobile. Expect them within a generation to buy 80 million cars.
Labor Day just one of AFL-CIO's achievements
America is at its tipping point. People are working harder and making less. We are in health crisis, and all of us worry about retiring in dignity. A good middle class life is increasingly out of reach for many hard working Americans. Who would have ever thought that our children might not be better off than their parents?The America we built is starting to fall apart as global pressures, rising health costs, an energy crisis and a push to eliminate pensions threaten good jobs in America.
OPEC keeps lid on oil output in Aug-Reuters survey
OPEC, excluding Iraq and Angola, kept oil output little changed in August and supply from all members of the 12-nation group fell because of a drop in Iraqi exports, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.
Thailand: Oil refiners agree to phase out LPG exports
Oil refiners say they will co-operate with the Energy Ministry to stop exporting liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) or cooking gas and begin meeting rising local demand instead.Each refiner has been gradually reducing LPG exports to help solve the shortage in the domestic market, even though revenue from local sales is relatively lower than from exports, according to Chainoi Puankosoom, the president of the Federation of Thai Industries' oil refinery club.
Funny thing happened at fuel queue the other day
"WHAT’S news in Zimbabwe nowadays if one might pose a breathtakingly idiotic question?"It surely must be the fuel shortage. Actually, to call it a shortage is an understatement. It should be termed a total disappearance of a petroleum by-product. Fuel has become so scarce that some of us have difficulties in imagining what it looked or smelt like.
Indonesia: Conversion of kerosene to LPG
Various regions subjected to conversion from the use of kerosene to gas stoves are facing kerosene scarcities, with people still queuing for the conventional liquid fuel.
Urgency of nuclear power in Bangladesh
Following the statement of G-7 countries in April, favouring nuclear power electricity as one of the three options for energy diversification, energy efficiency, and energy security, and to address climate change (nuclear power stations do not emit greenhouse gases, especially C02), there has been a softening of attitude towards nuclear power both in the developed and the developing countries. Recently, a number of articles supporting nuclear power in Bangladesh have appeared in the press.
Israel: Disagreements, lack of funds threaten plan to curb pollution
The plan aims to encourage the use of cars that consume less fuel and emit less pollution by altering the way vehicle taxes and fees are structured in order to make purchasing such vehicles more attractive. Currently, taxes are determined mainly by engine size; under the new plan, a vehicle's fuel consumption and emission levels would also affect the amount of tax.The committee also plans to ban trucks from using main roads during rush hour.
Australia: Climate protest shuts down power station
Climate change protesters have shut down a significant part of Victoria's power generation at the Loy Yang power station in Gippsland's Latrobe Valley.Four protesters have locked themselves to a coal conveyor, and Loy Yang Power has shut down the 600 megawatt generator as a safety measure.
French utility merger back on track
Utility giant Suez SA and state-owned Gaz de France agreed to new terms for a long-stalled merger that would create a global energy giant minority-owned by the French state, an official said.
Oil Near Four-Week High on Storm, Signs OPEC Will Freeze Supply
Crude oil traded near a four-week high in New York as a hurricane headed toward the Gulf of Mexico and OPEC ministers said the group wouldn't increase production....Felix has become a "dangerous" storm with 165-mile-per-hour winds, making it a Category 5 hurricane, the highest and most dangerous rank on the Saffir-Simpson scale, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. It was centered about 490 miles (790 kilometers) east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Honduras-Nicaragua border. The system was heading west at 21 miles per hour.
"It's a very strong hurricane, but the track is still uncertain," said Olivier Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland. "It is still too early to have full confidence that it will track to the Mexican Bay of Campeche oil fields."
Mary King: Economic risk management
We have not found any new gas reserves for sometime now and though we HOPE that there is more out there, the risk (probability) that there is no more is not zero. Surely we have to give new and more incentives for Big Oil to keep digging, keeping in mind as I demonstrated last week that we are now on the declining slope of marginal returns for gas. The people whom the population trust should be telling us about the risks and how these are being managed instead of saying to have faith and not to worry, be happy. These risks are aggravated by the global Peak Oil phenomenon.
Norway: More oil reserves in the North
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) has adjusted upwards by 20 per cent the estimates for how much undiscovered oil there is in the Barents Sea, NRK reports.
Report: China planning expansion of oil refineries
China is planning a major expansion of its oil refineries to help reduce reliance on imports and keep up with demand, a state-run newspaper reported over the weekend.Plans call for the country to have 31 refineries by 2015, each with a capacity to process 10 million tons of crude oil a year (220,000 barrels a day), the Economic Observer reported. At the end of last year China had only nine facilities with similar capacity.
Chinese oil companies ask for supply guarantee
China's government is considering a request from private oil companies for a guaranteed supply of between 10 million and 20 million tons of fuel annually, to alleviate shortages.As much as 80 per cent of private fuel storage facilities are now empty, said Zhao Youshan, head of the Petroleum Distribution Committee of China's General Chamber of Commerce.
CNOOC to invest 15 bln yuan to build deep-sea vessel
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), the largest offshore oil company, recently announced its ambitious oil exploitation plan at deep-sea areas. The company plans to invest 15 billion yuan to build a deep-sea oil fleet, the Beijing Morning Post reported.“Building the oil fleet is only part of our plan to explore the oil resources in deep-sea areas,” said Zhou Shou, CNOOC vice general manager.
Oil Minister Calls on Exxon and Conoco to Leave Venezuela
Rafael Ramirez, Venezuela's Energy Minister and president of the state owned oil company PDVSA, called on US oil companies ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil to leave Venezuela. Ramirez issued the call as he submitted details of proposed contracts relating to the final transition of companies operating in the Orinoco oil belt into joint ventures with PDVSA during a session of the National Assembly’s Energy Commission yesterday.
Exploitation of hydrocarbons in the State hands
On the brink of the 21st century socialism, there is small room for a private stake in the domestic oil industry. This is true for the changes to the Constitution proposed by President Hugo Chávez. However, some loopholes may be a future chance.
Nigeria: NNPC Restructure Saves Billions in Cash Calls
The recent plan to restructure the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) may bring Nigeria a step closer to reducing corruption in and pave the way for a mega state-owned oil company along the lines of those in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Brazil.
Bangladesh: Power Generation – Going Nowhere
A substantial part of PDB initiatives are going nowhere as Petrobangla did not agree to commit gas supply to at least eight large and medium plants capable to generate a total of 1700MW. Government has not yet given go ahead to coal exploration. Hence coal for power may not be available soon to create another option. Bangladesh can not easily adopt solar, bio or wind options to meet the huge deficit and increasing demand.
Africa: Dealing With Africa's Resource Curse
Oil is perhaps the most important lure, with competition between foreign states and companies to secure resources so intense it attracts more than 50 per cent of all foreign direct investment. In 2006, annual Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) raised to a historic high of $38.8 billion, exceeding record levels of 2005 -- a growth of 78 per cent from 2004.
British aid for Russian ‘eco disaster’
BRITISH taxpayers are expected to offer a £500m lifeline to a troubled Russian oil and gas project despite warnings that it is turning into an environmental disaster.
The Oxford Energy Institute: A Successful Experiment in Producer-Consumer Dialogue
The international petroleum industry underwent a fundamental change in 1973 with the rise in crude oil prices from around $1-2 a barrel to around $11 a barrel in the initial stage. Instead of concessions for drilling and production, which were granted to giant oil firms for 99 years and covered entire states, as well as crude oil purchase and sales contracts limited to no more than 10 giant western companies, members of OAPEC (the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries) began to change this economic situation, which had remained in place for the first six decades of the 20th century. The oil exporting countries began to play a direct and vital role in setting petroleum policies by adopting production policies, which directly affected crude oil prices and changed the foundations of what set price levels.
that in less than 30 years we will exhaust the planet’s supply of oil. Their report emphasized that there is no Plan B and we are to expect “severe global food shortages, mass starvation, disease and overall breakdown of social and economic institutions” in as little as a decade.Before that ever happens, though, we may suffer a fiscal implosion that would have the same effect as Peak Oil. Do people realize that the Federal Reserve’s decision to print more than $100 billion last month in an attempt to stave off a housing Armageddon just cheapens the dollar and hastens its demise?
The reality of other threats like global warming increased my melancholia. Most people are not aware of the dire future their children face, which makes me wonder: Would many parents have had children had they known what the future holds?
European roads brace for onslaught of smaller SUVs
With increasingly vociferous resistance by civic groups against using big, gas-guzzling SUVs for daily urban trips, carmakers are trying to position the smaller versions as green vehicles.For example, the recently launched Citroen C-Crosser is on sale only with frugal diesel engines with a particulate filter that would make many mainstream cars green with envy.
Will Chile's looming energy crisis spell ruin for one of South America's last wild places?
Villages such as Caleta Tortel and the pristine landscape that surrounds them are now under threat from a plan by the country's largest electricity producer, Endesa Chile, to build a series of dams on Aisén's Pascua and Baker rivers as part of a vast hydroelectric project. In the face of vocal opposition from environmentalists, landowners, and local salmon farmers whose business depends on Aisén's pure water, the Chilean government must make a critical decision: Should Aisén's unique landscape be protected—and promoted through sustainable tourism—or should the powerful natural forces that created it be harnessed for the country's economic benefit?
Firm hopes to get more ethanol from corn
A company that has been making ethanol from corn for more than 20 years says its ethanol research should allow it to squeeze 27 percent more fuel from each acre of the crop.
Is A Bioeconomy fueled by Biorenewables, Sustainable?
his spring farmers responded to the ethanol industry's demand for grain by increasing their corn acreage by 19 percent over last year, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates.What if that happens again next year?
Edible oil imports are expected to surge 10 per cent in the new oil year that begins in November, despite the expectations of higher domestic output this kharif. This is a matter of concern, as the imports will be required at a time when global edible oil prices are on the upswing due largely to their diversion to bio-fuel production.
Green light for fusion project
The British-led team will use lasers to start fusion reactions that generate more energy than they consume and they have won the backing of an influ-ential EU science panel, The Times can disclose. The decision paves the way for a seven-year, £500 million programme to construct an experimental reactor based on a revolutionary technique that could make fusion a commercial reality within two decades.
Australia urges voluntary emission goals
Australia's leader urged his Pacific Rim counterparts on Sunday to forge a new agreement on climate change — one that would reject binding targets for greenhouse gas emissions in favor of voluntary goals.
Battle lines drawn on climate change at Asian summit
Developing nations led by China are set for a bruising battle with the United States and Australia on climate change, a senior official at a key summit of Asia Pacific nations said Monday.The veteran Southeast Asian foreign ministry official, who asked not to be named, said talks to craft a separate leaders' statement on climate change at this week's APEC are expected to be "bloody."
New Times Atlas displays effects of climate change
Creators of the Times Atlas have had to make significant changes to their latest edition because of changes to the world's landscapes caused by climate change, their chief said Sunday.Cartographers have had to redraw coastlines and reclassify types of land to reflect changes to geographical features like Lake Chad in Africa, which is now 95 percent smaller than it was in 1963.



Felix trending to non-issue for Oil Production
The most likely path has the eye grazing the coast of Honduras (which will mercifully be on the good side). Substantial power will be lost by friction with the coast, and then a long path over the Yucatan with no time to regain strength on the other side.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/205023.shtml?5day#con...
Subject to change,
Alan
The thought occurs to me that with so much arctic ice melted due to global warming, August may be the new July, and the hurricane season might now not end until sometime in December. Should there be anything to this hypothesis, that means that any thought that we are almost out of the woods for this year would be premature.
In the mid-latitudes (25, 30 degrees or so), the daily reduction in insolation and longer night time radiation losses, would work against any significant lengthening of the "at risk" season for Cat 3+ hurricanes. Warmer water (no serious storms in the GoM in 2006 and so far in 2007) will likely add several days/a week to the at risk period.
A comparable argument can be made for other sources of heating.
Best Hopes,
Alan
IIRC the rhyme I learnt while sailing in the carribean was:
June too soon,
July stand by,
August you must,
September remember,
October all over.
Recent history would suggest this needs to be shunted forward at least one month.
Yep, this link has the storm strengths in the forecast track.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200706_5day.html#a_topad
Bolivia on Verge of Civil War
Since convening on Aug. 6, 2005, the Constituent Assembly has been plagued by confrontations as a re-emergent opposition—organized out of the city of Santa Cruz in the east of Bolivia and which has at its core the Santa Cruz elite, gas transnationals, large agribusiness, and the United States embassy—has attempted to derail the process of change.
http://www.worldpress.org/Americas/2911.cfm
http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/31-08-2007/96567-bolivia-0
http://www.newswithviews.com/Spingola/deanna60.htm
Cid, looks like the US is going to destabilise the entire planet on its way down. Even its allies are not safe if this following article is in anyway accurate. Pakistan may be in the firing line before Iran:
Robert Fisk: Strange goings-on here in Lebanon
http://news.independent.co.uk/fisk/article2917317.ece
Gulp...
Re: China to build 31 refineries in 8 years! And we think steel prices and fuel prices are high now. John
I am starting to believe that China and India are aspiring for western lifestyles – just to annoy GW Bush and the Americans
The animated graphic at the bottom of paal myrtvedt's post does not contribute anything at all to the quality of TOD. Indeed I find this display of techno-chic irritating and distracting. Maybe Leanan can indicate to paal myrtvedt that this is a site for adults, not children.
ohh, Sorry O'Tasman
That smiley was put there to underscore my attempt at irony.
TOD is a serious place I agree, but here should also be place for some skewed comments and a dash of sarcasm.
I don’t mind if the gif is removed, but as a suggestion for you when you are browsing the web – “whenever you see anything irritating, just scroll down/up as per your direction of reading … annoyance removed :-)
I'm all for humour. But if we have to put up a flag or a smiley face to indicate that we have made a joke. . . . Well, then, maybe we had better recognise (a) that we are not very good at humour; and (b) that we are being REALLY patronising to our audience.
All I ask is that you credit your readers with having a sense of humour. Why do you you feel the need to cram what you call "your attempts at irony" down our throats with redundant GIFs? Sounds like the old Nazi threat that, "Ve haff vays of makingk you laff."
Lighten up, old chap.
I'll tell you why it needs marked - because history here has demonstrated that there are sufficient number of people in the world who either do not have a sense of humor or misunderstand the author. The use of "smilies" is common internet parlance. This is not a formal debating society. I would urge Paal to continue doing whatever he thinks works.
By the way, Tasman, you will find man other "markers" for humor in posts here at TOD. I suggest you get used to them or maybe you can tell Professor Goose that he should stop writing on his site as he sees fit?
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
How about you get adblock and stop ruining threads?
It would be hard for me to do that, since I've been known to post such things myself.
Though I try to show restraint with animated GIFs, since they can be distracting.
Firefox will let you block any offending graphics with a click.
On a mature, adult site like TOD I don't expect to have to take evasive action to avoid the animated GIFs which marr some other peak oil sites (and which, as you admit, can be very irritating). As a site dedicated to rational argument I expect TOD posters to make their points in the normal linguistic way. In objecting to this GIF I feel that I am argiung from the same perspective as those others on TOD who plead for proper grammar and spelling, and the avoidance of gratuitous bad language and ad hominem attacks. It's a matter of civility, of good manners. No more, or less, important than not farting in an elevator. Civility is what makes TOD such a great forum.
And, paal myrtveldt, the addition of a GIF cannot transform sarcasm into irony. Check your dictionary.
.
OTOH, maybe the mature thing to do is make your feelings known once, then just drop it.
And your annoying derailing of the thread is so much less distracting than that animated gif.
Well, having a little winky-face after a comment to substitute for sarconal tags is one thing...having one that turns around and lights its own fart, charring itself...is a tad silly.
Naked apes are silly. Here's to silliness. Lighten up.
Rat
Firefox will stop animated GIFs with esc key. ;)
Oh NO the interweb is full of offending animated emoticons. You post does even less to contribute to the quality of TOD. The last thing the internet needs is one more self righteous internet cop.
Your whinging, Tasman, is more distracting and does more damage to the credibility of this site than a small icon. If you have concentration problems and/or anal retensive disorders that inhibit your ability to filter humour and/or non relevant subject matter then it is you that has the problem. Pull you head out of your ass; get a life and a sense of houmour please.
Marco.
Oops. I guess my immaturity is showing, because I think it's funny! :-)
China must have some plans for getting oil for the the next 30 years, or they wouldn't be building all these refineries.
My THAI article mentioned Petrobank reported that China was interested in their technology. The actual words of the Petrobank Website is "technology sharing agreements have been signed with . . . Petro China." And we know that China is working on contracts to buy oil wherever it can.
China must have a more opimistic view than the US and other nations have.
Not necessarily. It could be that they have no such plan, but are willing to gamble on being able to come up with the crude to feed those refineries. They could see building and not using them as better (if still not a pleasant option) than not building them and needing them.
The three premier and unexplored basins in the world (AFAIK) are ANWR, the Yellow Sea and the South China Sea. Political issues have kept all three "off the market".
I could see some optimism in China based on the last two.
Or China may think that the USA will get a declining % of world oil exports and China an increasing % of world oil exports (not an unreasonable assumption).
Especially if they are sweet talking the King of Saudi Arabia about replacing the USA as protector.
Alan
neither of the 2 countries you name will be exporters of crude, perhaps refined product. but crude, no.
I have long thought that infrastructure will be a bigger problem than most realize. As long as we can outbid everyone else for raw materials, etc., we'll be all right. But that won't go on forever. Especially if there's a dollar collapse or some such thing.
Yes, in a world where influence and alignment become more important than the highest price, the flow of resources may change radically. Where mutual trust and agreement form the basis of business, rather than leverage and deception.
The dollar doesn't need to collapse.
BTW, that's why I oppose nuclear -- infrastructure collapse is bad enough, but add include nuclear and we've bequeathed hell.
what? this requires a bit more explanation.
if nuclear can supply us some mroe 1:10 eroei, which is nessisary for society to function at it's current capacity, why not continue to expand it?
I think he's talking about failure modes. If it turns out that our society cannot after all be sustained by nuclear (or any other technology), how gracefully does it fail?
failure modes.
Failure modes also are about how these reactors are human built machines, and human built machines will fail over time and use.
What is the cost of the failures?
The article Kids, Kids, the Future in the Napa Valley Register has the following quote, in an artlicle dated Spetember 3:
What is the author talking about?
I think he's talking about the NPC report. The phrasing he uses ("no plan B," etc.) suggests that his article is based on this one. It was published last week, and he may not have realized that the report that inspired it was not hot off the presses.