DrumBeat: September 4, 2007
Posted by Leanan on September 4, 2007 - 9:05am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Futurist sees way to end world woes
BUSINESSES will need to rethink their approach to growth and focus more on sustainability and innovation to save the planet, says futurist and author Thomas Homer-Dixon.Homer-Dixon, from the Trudeau Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Toronto, said the world was in the grip of five major stresses:
■ Different rates of population growth for rich and poor countries.
■ Energy scarcity.
■ Environmental damage in poor countries.
■ Climate change.
■ The widening gap between rich and poor.
Speaking in Melbourne yesterday, he said the combination of forces resulted in massive upheavals and destruction.
"Societies get in trouble when there are multiple problems and multiple stressors," he said.
Get Your Green on in Energyville
Chevron launched an online, interactive game designed to fuel discussion about the origin of our energy.Energyville lets players select different energy sources to power their cities. They can choose from biomass, coal, solar, natural gas, petroleum, nuclear, wind or hydroelectric energy to run factories, light office buildings, and keep transportation and shipping moving along.
The game calculates the economic, security and environmental costs of each choice, and then calculates an energy management score. Next, the game reveals how the choices will impact the city in 2015 and 2030, a time at which Chevron calculates global energy demand will have risen by 50 percent.
GM said its sales of cars and light trucks, such as SUVs and pickups, rose 6 percent in the month to 385,529 vehicles. Car models saw a nearly 8 percent drop in sales, but that was outweighed by the the 16.5 percent jump in light truck models.
3 court cases for climate change
Even without a nationwide greenhouse gas law, environmental groups are going after polluters for causing global warming.
Farmers markets feed the 100-mile diet
If the food hasn't been grown within 100 miles of where we live -- we won't buy it. That is the pledge concerned foodies across the country are taking for the entire month of September.
Reach for the sky: Could flying wind farms help beat global warming?
A helicopter that doubles as a wind turbine. Or, to give it its technical name, a FEG (Flying Electric Generator).
Ethanol makers pursuing avenue 'Q'
A new microbe being used by biofuel leaders has the chance to change the way ethanol is produced.
The drought and harsh winter have led to significant price rises in fruit and vegetables but these are short-term compared to the impact some global forces could have at the farm gate.When visiting food industry figure Guillaume Bastiaens told a gathering of his Australian counterparts in Sydney that he had never seen anything like it in his 39 years in the game, he wasn't referring to the quality of the city's restaurants or produce.
The vice-chairman of US company Cargill was talking about the global impact of biofuels on agriculture and food prices.
One question we asked these journalists was “what do you see as the greatest weaknesses in the peak oil argument?” Half of their response—“the resource is larger than the pessimists think”—likely will not surprise you. The other half may: “It’s the sense of certainty conveyed about many of the issues.”Our hosts had good working familiarity with history of peak oil forecasting, including the flawed early calls. With decades in the business, they had also seen dozens if not hundreds of oil and gas price forecasts miss the mark. In short, experience has taught them to be mistrust forecasts about anything. Soothsaying strikes these writers as a smug and dangerous practice.
Having followed the peak oil discussion for twenty years, we share this concern. In our opinion, excessive certitude may be the soft underbelly of the peak oil movement.
A New Push to Regulate Power Costs
More than a decade after the drive began to convert electricity from a regulated industry into a competitive one, many states are rolling back their initiatives or returning money to individuals and businesses....Of the 25 states, and the District of Columbia, that had adopted competition, only one, California, is even talking about expanding market pricing.
The main reason behind the effort to return to a more regulated market is price. Recent Energy Department data shows that the cost of power in states that embraced competition has risen faster than in states that had retained traditional rate regulation.
Australia: Petrol hike outstrips global rise
PETROL price hikes at the bowser have outstripped the surge in global oil prices by about 15c a litre, as local oil companies post record profits.Consumer watchdog the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission yesterday heard a submission from the NRMA in Sydney that margins for oil refiners, distributors and retailers were growing while motorists were being squeezed.
Australia: Caltex admits trying to push petrol price up
Caltex tried to move the price back up directly, by instructing its own sites to do so, and indirectly by withdrawing price support from its franchise sites.
A fuel pinch: Iran, Jordan and Syria each need to cut fuel subsidies
The flip side of the Middle East oil boom has been the exponential rise of the costs that most of the region's governments have faced in subsidising domestic energy demand—which is growing by more than 5% per year across the region. However, tackling these subsidies comes at a political price, as the governments of Iran, Jordan and Syria have recently become painfully aware. In Iran, the imposition of gasoline rationing provoked sporadic riots and has contributed to the increase in tensions within the government, as reflected in the recent replacement of the oil and planning ministers and the central bank governor. The Jordanian finance minister recently resigned after he was prevented from raising gasoline prices, and the Syrian government is bracing itself for a backlash as it prepares to announce steep increases in fuel prices.
Postponing is a Correct Choice and Modifying the Decision is a Must
Circles within the Syrian government announced yesterday that the government would postpone its decision concerning re-offering subsidies of energy prices in Syria, or, as most Syrians see it, stopping the government’s support of prices of the basic fuel materials, till more talks and discussions, as well as surveying opinions of the Syrian citizens.
More than 1000 march in Laputta
More than 1000 people took to the streets in the Irrawaddy town of Laputta today, to protest the Burmese military’s recent decision to drastically increase fuel prices.
Nepal: Oil subsidy to continue till CA polls
The government has expressed readiness to cover the oil losses of Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) for the next three months in order to address the current oil crisis and ensure normal supply of petroleum products till the constituent assembly polls conclude.
Sinopec sees profit squeeze from expensive crude and domestic price controls
China Petroleum & Chemical, Asia's biggest refiner, may extend losses from processing oil unless the cost for a barrel of the fuel falls below $64, two company officials said.Domestic fuel prices have been kept below global levels by the government, causing refining losses for China Petroleum, one of the officials said Friday in Shanghai, asking not to be identified because of company policy.
China: Authorities wary on oil price reform
The mainland on Tuesday said it would be a gradual and long process to fully link its domestic fuel prices to international markets, in a bid to protect vulnerable consumers such as farmers and urban poor.“Reform of China’s fuel prices is a subject worth serious studies,” Chen Deming, vice-chairman of the National Development & Reform Commission told a news conference. “We can’t possibly achieve that in one big step.”
Additional gasoline for private cars: Iran Ministry
The Iran government has agreed to allocate 100 liters of additional gasoline for facilitating the travel of families on the eve of the new school year (starting September 23).Oil Ministry’s Caretaker Gholamhossein Nozari said families should not be worried about the shortage of gasoline, as the government aims to minimize their problems, Fars News Agency reported.
Argentinean natural gas cuts continue to curtail Chilean methanol production
Argentine gas has been in short supply since 2004 as demand has risen faster than production and the replacement of reserves. During the winter months (late May to mid-August), the country ran a deficit of 2,000 MW, or 10% of peak demand, and 40 million cu m/d, or 30% of average demand, on cold days.The effect that the shortage has had on petrochemical production in Argentina and neighboring countries has been widespread.
The Philippines: The coming power crisis in the Visayas
The economy is growing at a higher rate than expected. This means increased consumption of fuel and electricity. Some concerned representatives of the electric power industry in Cebu are already sounding the alarm.
Organic crisis as farms face high feed prices
RISING feed costs are forcing nearly half the organic livestock farmers in England and Wales to consider reducing stock numbers, or even abandoning organic production.
Can India reduce its energy consumption
The Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas over the years has been making concerted efforts to accelerate exploration and production of oil and natural gas in India.
Sri Lanka to produce oil by 2010
Petroleum and Petroleum Resources Development Minister A. H. M. Fowzie yesterday disclosed Sri Lanka will able to produce it’s own crude oil by the year 2010 from oil exploration in the Mannar basin.Eight blocks in the Mannar basin has already been identified to commence oil exploration activities. Of these eight blocks, two blocks have been given to India and China.
Gazprom to get Karachaganak gas only in 2012
Russia's gas export monopoly Gazprom will not gain access to gas from the huge Karachaganak field in Kazakhstan before 2012, the company said on Monday, disclosing the timeframe for the first time.Gazprom is counting heavily on imports of gas from Central Asia as its own production stagnates and new fields are not expected to come on stream before the middle of next decade amid rising demand for gas in Europe and at home.
Analyst: Increased Research Less Effective than Partnerships
Increased investment in research by Mexico's national oil institute (IMP) as stipulated in the new fiscal reform proposal for state oil company Pemex should not be oversold, according to George Baker, research director of Houston-based consultancy Energia.com...."I have a bigger budget, can I write a better novel? Probably not. We're talking about what has to happen to make creativity and technological advancement possible. You have to ask the question whether with all this new money they would just be reinventing the wheel, with what oil companies already know," Baker said.
A new proposal for the old Maine Yankee site gets a mixed local reaction
The plant would use coal and a small amount of biomass — think waste lumber — to generate electricity in a process Houldin says is more efficient and cleaner than traditional coal-fired power plants. The plant would not be "burning the coal," Houldin makes clear, but "gasifying" it, a process that breaks down coal or any other carbon-based feedstock into its basic chemical components and produces synthetic gas known as "syngas," which is burned to create electricity.
EU climate flight plans 'deluded'
European Union proposals to reduce the climate impact of flying will not work, a report concludes.The EU plans to include aviation in its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).
But analysts at the Tyndall Centre, a prestigious UK climate research body, say this will have minimal effect without a major rise in carbon prices.
Ethanol, wind energy stand to benefit from energy bill
Congress returns to work this week with unfinished business important to some growing sectors of Iowa's economy - fuel ethanol and wind energy.
China bans new gas-fed methanol plants to cut down on pollution
China's top economic planner has banned new natural gas-fed methanol projects, as well as several other types of plants, in an attempt to prioritize gas for city consumption to cut pollution, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in an announcement late yesterday.In addition to new natural gas-fed methanol projects, the policy also bans new gas-fired power plants near big coal mines and new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects with gas sourced from medium and large gasfields.
Richard Heinberg's Museletter - Peak Everything
During the past few years the phrase Peak Oil has entered the global lexicon. It refers to the moment in time when the world will achieve its maximum possible rate of oil extraction; from then on, for reasons having mostly to do with geology, the amount of petroleum available to society on a daily or yearly basis will begin to dwindle. Most informed analysts agree that this will happen during the next two or three decades; an increasing number believe that it is happening now - that conventional oil production peaked in 2005–2006 and that the flow to market of all hydrocarbon liquids taken together will start to diminish around 2010. The consequences, as they begin to accumulate, are likely to be severe: the world is overwhelmingly dependent on oil for transportation, agriculture, plastics, and chemicals; thus a lengthy process of adjustment will be required. According to one recent U.S. government-sponsored study, if the peak does occur soon replacements are unlikely to appear quickly enough and in sufficient quantity to avert what it calls "unprecedented" social, political, and economic impacts.
Fuel Oil Beats Gasoline, Diesel on Shipping Demand
Fuel oil for the first time in two years is rising faster than gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, increasing the cost of ocean freight and electricity.Demand for the fuel used in marine engines and power plants is accelerating because the world shipping fleet is growing at a record pace. Refiners are selling less fuel oil, the residue from refined crude, as they invest $20 billion over the next five years in more-profitable products.
India: 2 gas-based power plants on cards
Power Minister Aleixo Sequeira said that the government shortly proposes to call for Expression of Interest for two power generating plants of 250 mw each. Being the cleanest and cheapest fuel, the government would prefer to use gas instead of coal and naphtha, he said talking to reporters in the Secretariat. Sequeira said the government wants to ensure that the State doesn’t suffer due to the shortage. As reported earlier, the power situation is turning grim with the State facing a deficit of 40-50 mw per day from 7 pm to 11 pm. The State is paying heavy for overdrawing power from the grid during this period.
OPEC Unlikely to Raise Production at Sept 11 Meeting
The distinct possibility of current market turmoil hitting energy demand will stop OPEC ministers from increasing production quotas next week, analysts said.If OPEC was to raise supply at a time when prices are vulnerable to weakness because of increasing risk aversion, oil would almost certainly fall, they said, making a production increase a less attractive option for ministers whose income relies on the commodity.
Burma's natural resources would provide a more prudent government with enough cash to plug its fiscal holes, bring inflation under control, and start making infrastructure investments. Large and exploitable natural-gas fields in the Gulf of Martaban and the Bay of Bengal could deliver income of around $2 billion a year for the next 40 years. Most of that gas is exported to Thailand, but supplies about to come online are currently subject to a three-way bidding war between China, India and South Korea.But the deal is already starting to go downhill. China thus far has not offered the highest price for the resources but is likely to win the bidding anyway. The junta apparently is prepared to sacrifice desperately needed revenue to thank China for vetoing sanctions against it this year at the U.N. Security Council.
China: Policy on natural gas streamlined
China has enacted a new industry policy on natural gas use to address the supply shortage and optimize usage, the nation's planning agency said yesterday.The guideline says residential gas use is a top priority, while usage in petrochemical plants is discouraged, the National Development and Reform Commission said on its Website.
China Cosco to Buy Dry-Bulk Fleet for $4.6 Billion
China Cosco Holdings Co. will buy the world's largest fleet of dry-bulk ships from its parent for 34.6 billion yuan ($4.6 billion) in cash and stock to take advantage of rising imports of iron ore, coal and grain.
More Mideast-China investment 'hampered by culture'
Greater investment between the Middle East and China is being hampered by a lack of understanding between the two cultures, a conference in the United Arab Emirates heard on Monday.The warning came despite trade between the two doubling since the year 2000 and projections of massive investment by some Middle Eastern states in Asia over the next five years -- with most of that money going to China.
Forth crossing 'must be multi-use'
A PARLIAMENTARY motion demanding a new Forth crossing that can include light rail yesterday won universal support from Scottish business groups.The motion, supported by Des McNulty, Labour's transport spokesman, said:
That multi-use transport options should feature more prominently in the Forth Replacement Crossing Study (FRCS).
That a road-only crossing would be "short-sighted" and "does not adequately address issues of growing traffic congestion".
...It also noted the possibility of "peak oil" - the time when global oil supplies begin to drop - being reached in the next ten years.
Geothermal loops to save school money
Players scrimmaging on the football field at the Circle of Nations School probably have no idea they’re trampling over parts of the campus cooling-and-heating system.But there’s no worry that their cleats will cause any damage – loops for a geothermal heating and cooling exchange are buried deep underground, where consistently mild temperatures help to significantly reduce energy costs.
Refinery to shut down in October for a month
One of Colorado's two refineries in Commerce City that turn crude oil into gasoline and diesel will be shut down for a month beginning Oct. 1, possibly squeezing fuel supplies and pushing up prices at pumps.Owner Suncor Energy said the planned shutdown for maintenance work has been scheduled for October because that month typically sees low demand for gasoline from drivers.
But a refinery customer, Gray Oil Co., a wholesale buyer of gasoline and diesel, is concerned. Shutting down the refinery could hamper fuel supplies that already are tight, said Bryant Gimlin, energy risk manager at Gray Oil.
Also, given this year's expected bumper crop of corn in October, the shutdown could make it hard to meet diesel demand from truckers.
The Global Economy: From Capital Markets to the Price of Oil
The facts show that demand outstripped supply in the first five years of this millennium, except for 2002. Other than that, supply has always outstripped demand. Average daily supply reached 80.14 million barrels and demand was 79.88 million barrels. Between 2001 and 2005, supply grew by 2.2% and demand by 1.95% annually. These figures shed suspicion over the reasons why oil prices have risen world-wide and their real state was concealed, with the goal of siphoning off oil reserves in order to float the "greed" of the US market with a weak dollar in the face of major currencies - thus affecting those regions using the Euro, the UK, developing countries (foremost among them China and India), as well as Japan. This hiked up the price of production.
Oil rises on hurricane concerns
"Market participants are keeping an eye on Hurricane Felix, but at this point it doesn't really look like it'll affect oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, and also, it has weakened to a Category 4 storm," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore...."But the hurricane is a reminder to everybody that we're entering the peak hurricane season, so the crude oil futures market continues to face upward exposure."
I haven't changed my view of what is happening to us. We have run out our string of stunts and tricks in the money rackets. We've spent our legitimacy. The rest of the world will strive mightily to get free of their obligations to us, including their respect for the value of our currency. The meta-cycle of suburban development, including the "housing" and all its accessories in roads and chain stores, is hitting the wall of peak oil. The suburban build-out is over. This will come as an agonizing surprise to many. The failure to make infinite suburbanization the permanent basis for an economy will rock our society for years to come. Hundreds of thousands of unemployed men with pick-up trucks and panoplies of power tools will feel horribly cheated. I hope they don't start an extremist political party when the re-po men come to take their trucks away.
A letter to President Bush regarding “The Surge”
I have a feeling President Bush is fully aware of Peak Oil and the stakes on the table for America. I think he was speaking from his heart when he said in his State of the Union Address, “America is addicted to oil!”I evem have a hunch that every morning President Bush is in the Oval Office he fires up his computer and can’t help but sneak a peek at www.energybulletin.net to check out the latest Peak Oil news.
Europe photovoltaic capacity seen tripled by 2010
Installed capacity of photovoltaic systems, which turn sunlight into power, will triple by 2010 to 3 gigawatts (GW) in Europe due to efforts to fight climate change, the sector's industry association said.
Seacoast Sustainable Living Community
What if there wasn't enough fuel left to get all that great California produce we squeeze in the supermarket or if the fuel was just so expensive, we couldn't afford that delicious orange? Not finding the food we need might be just one consequence of "peak oil" which, according to The Community Solution, is that point at which we will be extracting the most oil per day from the ground than we ever will. And it will all go downhill from there. Soon we won't be able to afford the fuel that gives us our food, our widgets, our machines — so many things. That time might even be next year.
Although technologies like solar and wind power may have entered the mainstream, it’s questionable whether the spirit that guided their development – a fully sustainable future – has. Despite the amount of ‘green noise’, campaigners claim, not enough solid change is taking place….and time is running out.
China asks leeway on greenhouse gases
China said Tuesday it was working hard to increase its use of renewable energy, but needs to be given some leeway in the global effort to reduce greenhouse gases.China's contribution over time to climate change has been relatively small, an economic planning official said when asked about China's attitude toward the focus on the issue at a meeting of Pacific Rim nations in Australia this week.
Climate activists chain themselves at Australian port
Climate change campaigners chained themselves by the neck to equipment at the world's biggest coal port Tuesday in a protest ahead of a summit of Asia Pacific leaders, officials said.
A new Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.
This is a guest Round-Up by ilargi.
Today, we change our focus (just) a little. Recently, we've paid much attention to finance. Still, while many see a toss-up now for which might hit us first, energy or economy, the prize may well go to the third contender: the earth.
AFP - Jeff Haynes
We were thinking about this, even before the Times Comprehensive Atlas of the World published an impromptu edition. Ice caps, lakes and shorelines simply change too fast, and maps become outdated: the world no longer looks the way it did only 4 years ago. The editor-in-chief: "We can literally see environmental disasters unfolding before our eyes."
Still, we were already noticing articles on a wide range of climate issues, from just the past 4-5 days, and without even searching for them.
Global food prices set to rise by 50% in 5 years. Australian farmers pay 50 times more for irrigation water than in 2002. California cuts off water to farmers to save fish species, French wine growers harvest grapes 8 weeks earlier than in 1978. Russia considers a wheat export ban. Holland: bread prices to rise 20% next year. Milk named the new oil. UK: many crops just drowned. [insert deep breath] Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, had another crop-killing sweltering summer. Australia relives last year's drought (and this time may not recover). The UN predicts a global food crisis. Topsoil vanishes at record pace. 2008 declared the Year of the Frog: up to half of amphibian species could be wiped out in coming years - the biggest mass extinction since dinosaurs disappeared. North American songbirds: going going gone, and we all know where our bees are by now. Not here.
None of the above mentions Africa and Asia, did you notice? Once we start there, we a/ run out of space, and b/ make people think climate change is not here and not now. It is. And it's much worse than we, facilitated by IPCC reports and Al Gore love-ins, like to think. "Will sea levels rise by 59 cm or 25 meters?" says another headline for a James Hansen article. Well, why don't we accept the middle ground? Better safe than sorry, right? Agreed, then, 12.795 m (42 ft) it is.
In Canada, we're headed for 2 trade-offs: the world's most polluted mammal, the beluga, makes way for the pine beetle, while the Prairies go from grass to shrubs.
Images showing how Lake Chad has shrunk: Left 1972, right 1987.
We are being lured into complacency by 'scientific' predictions and political announcements for faraway abstract dates like 2050 or 2100. But if Hansen's only half right, it's time to seek 'true' higher ground. Today. No amount of oil, and no amount of money, will ever bring back a million extinct species, or put the ice back on Greenland or Kilimanjaro.
Interesting stuff - I was reading about the possible effects of ground up polymers on small marine life somewhere else recently too... not a good picture.
BTW - Peak Oil is the cover story in a national magazine here, by the looks of it: next week's issue of The Listener (NZ).
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Minister to spurn SNP call to secure oil powers
For many years the UK Treasury (i.e. current Prime Minister Gordon Brown) tried to make out that London was doing Scotland by grabbing its oil and exchanging it for a lot of so-called handouts. Now, it seems that they are determined to hang on to it despite its massive decline over the past few years. :=)
PS
I hope no one minds the primitive smiley above!
Edited for bandwidth and copyright reasons.
The smiley is fine, but please don't quote the entire article. A link and a couple of paragraphs is enough.
Sorry.
Is it a surprise?
There is no way that scotland will be allowed to gain control of oil or oil revenues. In practical terms scottish independence both relies on oil, and is prevented by it. Westminster will only consider casting the jocks free once the oil has run out, and by that point scotland couldn't survive without it (considering the handouts they get).
Its a synergistic relationship, the UK as a whole benefits from the resources that scotland affords, and scotland benefits from being part of something with a critical mass. Its a pity there are those that are always trying to pull it apart on the basis of a romantic ideal.
"Critical Mass" obviously does not apply to Norway or the zillion other small countries that are in the European Union.
I agree with you that Scotland has a dependency culture - that can be rectified if they really want to do so. It is a legacy of the Labour Party's electoral stranglehold over Scotland for a number of generations.
(<::
Stoneleigh,
You forgot to mention the north pole becoming ice free within a couple of years instead of 50 and that increasing the odds of Greenland ice slidng off its rock.
Arkansawyer
"The entire length of the Northwest Passage is navigable," said Trudy Wohlleben, senior ice forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service, a government agency.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070904/FOREI...
But with some crops now just 10 days from failure, farmers are to receive no water at all for irrigation through the summer, while others will get a fraction of their regular entitlement to keep alive vital plantings like citrus trees and grapevines.
"It's grim. The water is not there," says Wendy Craik, the head of the Murray-Darling Basin Commission which oversees storage in the country's longest river and dam system.
http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/44022/story.htm
from Reuters re Felix:
"Up to 40,000 Hondurans were evacuated to shelters, but some 15,000 people were unable to find transportation and were forced to ride out the storm in their homes.
"They couldn't be evacuated because there is no fuel to take them to safe areas," said Carolina Echeverria, a deputy from Cabo Gracias a Dios on the border with Nicaragua, where Felix was headed."
http://www.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUSN04365279._CH_.2400
My brother just returned from a village in the mountains on the border there. It's a challenge to get in and out at the best of times and it isn't just fuel; vehicles per capita is more like vehicles per village.
Major disruptions of transport by huge strikes by the Campesinos Unidos or peasant's union have probably diminished fuel stores. Blockades made their point but probably forced many to take large detours. Regardless, there isn't much of an alternative to hunkering and praying in these areas.
I'm glad he's not still down there.
Re Aussie protests against coal exports and
(as Stoneleigh points out) a likely poor wheat harvest due to climate change...hmm maybe there's a connection. But the APEC indefinite-growthists won't get it. While Bush stopped over in Iraq en route to the conference the Chinese Premier was checking out LNG and iron ore deals in mining areas. Australia is doing OK because it will peak later than the rest of the world in several key commodities. However in a few years we'll be left with holes in the ground where rivers used to be and holes in the ground where mineral deposits used to be. As I see it the APEC love-in will only speed that process.
Our local gas stations are moving to $ 3.24 today - Grand Rapids, Michigan USA.
From what? Prices in most of the country are ~$2.70ish
Up from $ 2.86 to $ 3.09 range
I just had my oil tank filled for the winter at $2.59 per gallon. This was a one-day 10 cent price drop on Friday before labor day. Today it's back up. Last year I had to prepay to lock in $2.69 per gallon. If we needed to we could use the wood-burning stove daily and the 550 gallons would get us through the winter.
New USA Coal Plants Run into Resistance
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/03/AR200709...
Best Hopes for Alternatives, including conservation,
Alan
Unfortunately not building new plants does not equal to not burning more coal.
Using DOE data from 2001 to 2006 coal electricity generation jumped from 1904 to 1987 TWh. This is an increase of 83TWh (double the total electricity production of my home country). Source:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table1_1.html
For comparison wind generation for the same period rose from 7 to 26TWh or just 19TWh. Source:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table1_1_a.html
Impressive as a rate of growth but doing virtually nothing to reduce greenhouse emissions growth.
The elephant in the room during that time of course was NG rising from 639 to 807TWh or by 168TWh. Even though NG is considered "clean" it still emits half of the coal's CO2 per kwth, or 84TWh coal "equivalent".
Comparing 19 TWh of wind to the total of 167 TWh of coal equivalent in FFs says a lot about how much wind is helping fight GHG emissions.
For a comparison - for that same period nuclear rose 22TWh without a single nuke being added, so nuclear effectively beats wind without any hype around it.
Best hopes for a rational approach to dealing with climate change
P.S. I picked 2001 as a reference point as 2000 showed abnormally high coal production, a jump of 85TWh from previous year, following a steady increase during the 90s
You are making selective use of data !
This year, 2007, wind should supply 44% of the new MWh from new generation (from memory). *FAR* more than repowered nukes.
In the next ten years, new wind turbines will supply *FAR* more MWh than new nukes ! Wind is off and running, nuke is s_l_o_w_l_y regearing up for new plant construction (as it should).
Best Hopes for a Rush to Wind and a moderate and safe nuke build-up,
Alan
BTW, in response to the $4+ billion nuclear reprocessing plant likely to be scrapped after a 9 month, 20 tonne undetected leak, you stated "that does not prove that it is a bad idea".
If 60+ years of operating experience and repeated MAJOR problems (tens to hundreds of billions for clean-up, now a scrapped plant, etc.) do not constitute a "bad idea" then just what does it take for something to be a bad idea ?
There is no fundamental difference between civilian & military fuel reprocessing, it is the same basic process.
Can you cite any other source than "from memory"?
I provided you a link with DOE data. Did you bother to take a look? Your numbers may be true for *new" capacity, but my whole point was that in case of coal, nuclear or NG you don't necessarily need new capacity to produce more.
Let me pick another time period - for the first 5 months of 2007 coal is up 14TWh, nuclear is up 7TWh and wind is up only 2TWh. Please read and comment the numbers before making hollow accusations.
BTW your graph is for capacity installed, not production. Wind proponents are keen on praising it as the 'fastest growing source' based on new capacity installed, but nobody bothers to comment on real world production data.
[edited to correct improper energy units]
New capacity x capacity factor = new production from new units.
Historical data, even from 2006, is quite misleading in evaluating the impact of wind since the wind turbines installed on 1/1/06 are significantly less than those installed on 12/31/06. Perhaps 30% of WT capacity was installed for only part of the year in 2006, producing a partial year's worth of production in their first year.
When dealing with explosive growth, installed capacity is a much better measurement than past production.
There is every reason to think that the MWh produced by new wind turbines in the next ten years will be far (order of magnitude or so) greater than the MWh produced from new nukes.
The past is simply NOT a good estimate of the future in this case. So your historic production data is of very minimal interest for future policy considerations.
Best Hopes for a Rush to Wind and a moderate and safe build-up of nuke,
Alan
I don't think your argument has any merit. Let's compare for example 2005 and 2006 when wind added 8TWh. It is true that wind capacity increased during the course of 2006 but the same is true during the course of 2005 and by similar amount. Clearly the two periods are comparable. For comparison the same 2 years coal lost 26TWh but NG was up 50TWh. Net GHG effect was likely neutral.
Looking at the numbers the fastest growing electricity sources in the past 2-3 years have been natural gas, coal, nuclear, wind in that order. You can't argue the facts Alan.
Your historic data has little validity for future policy considerations. Wind was *SMALL* on 1/1/2005 and is still small today (although about twice as big as on 1/1/05) as a percentage of the total installed base.
A hot summer vs. a mild summer (or winter) is enough to alter the capacity factor of coal & NG enough to affect the totals significantly. That is just random noise basically.
So
is of no relevance or interest. You are commenting on weather related statistical noise basically (except repowered nukes, and there are definite limits to how much they can be repowered, a one shot deal basically).
Install 4,000 MW of new wind turbines, expect 0.32 capacity factor, and the US gets 11.2 TWh of new renewable generation in their first full year of operation (a bit more than the only new nuke I am sure of in the next ten years, Watts Bar II being completed, shut down @ 60% complete).
Best Hopes for a Rush to Wind and slow steady build-out of nukes,
Alan
The basic truth that you refuse to accept is that wind can be built in large enough quantities and quickly enough to make a significant difference. New Nuke cannot be safely built quickly enough and in enough quantities to make any significant difference for till 2020 or quite likely 2025-2030.
Your historic data has little validity for future policy considerations.
I give up. I picked at least 3 different time periods and kept pointing out that contribution by wind has been overwhelmed by the additions of FFs and you keep insisting... on what exactly?
And doesn't the fact that a single nuclear unit will produce more than a whole year of new wind additions ring a bell? There was a time US was commissioning more than 10 reactors per year. And France effectively displaced all its coal and oil powered plants in just 2 decades. Why can't we?
In principle I agree with the slow build-up idea but NIMBY-sts and self-appointed environmentalists are trying to make it way too slow with the apparent goal of not happening at all. Since wind obviously will take us thus far we are all going to be cooked because of this collective madness.
Personally I'm ready to bet that contribution from coal will be the greatest in the next 10 years for US and will outbeat wind by a huge margin. Pick your bets.
And doesn't the fact that a single nuclear unit will produce more than a whole year of new wind additions ring a bell?
I reasonably expect that the wind turbines installed in 2007 will, in 2008, generate more MWh than Watts Bar II will generate in it's first full year of commercial generation. And the WTs will generate power for several years before Watts Bar II goes commercial (I am also willing to take a bet that they will take more than the scheduled 5 years to complete a 60% complete plant).
So I think your statement is false.
History is a poor guide for forecasting the future of wind (other than explosive compounded growth if we push it).
And the year that Watts Bar DOES go commercial, I can reasonably expect new wind turbines (installed in the 12 months before WB II goes commercial) to produce at least 4x as many MWh as will WB II.
There was a time US was commissioning more than 10 reactors per year. And France effectively displaced all its coal and oil powered plants in just 2 decades. Why can't we ?
Zimmer
Three Mile Island
WHOOPS I, III, IV, V
Rancho Seco
Watts Bar I & II
Browns Ferry I
Bellefonte I & II
Fort St. Vrain
Indian Point 1
Zion I & II
Trojan
Indian Point I
And many more.
You blame NIMBYs and environmentalist. I blame the nuclear power industry. A long series of multi-billion screw-ups BY THE INDUSTRY has dramatically raised the risk of building nuclear power plants.
Now with a 97% green work force, we are going to avoid the errors of the past ?
M-A-Y-B-E
Time will tell. But without US Gov't commitments, nothing will be built.
In the next ten years, I expect Watts Bar II to go commercial and no other nukes (about 11 years for TXU I and Calvert Cliffs 3). Maybe Bellefonte I & II (TVA has $6 billion invested there, sitting for 20 years).
Looking at the numbers, new coal will likely beat new wind, but it could be close if one considers net new production (subtract retired plants).
Alan
I blame the nuclear power industry. A long series of multi-billion screw-ups BY THE INDUSTRY has dramatically raised the risk of building nuclear power plants.
Yup. If the industry had a history of success, then the industry could point to the success, instead of scapegoating. Right now, they say 'look at how little damage has been done' and 'see, the multi-dollar fines for poor operation just shows how well the system works!'
The whole topic of "the peaceful atom" will get discussed in other nations if there is a bombing of a fission reactor. Such a topic won't get an airing in the US of A however.
Now, how about this as a sample:
Armed Guard Found Asleep at Nuke Plant
By JIM FITZGERALD
Associated Press Writer
August 27, 2007
WHITE PLAINS, N.Y. — A federal inspector found an armed guard asleep at a gate inside the Indian Point nuclear power plants but officials said Monday there was no security breach.
History may not provide a base for analysis but the experience of other countries should. Just dig out emission and production data from the so called "green super-powers" - Denmark, Germany, Spain. All of them are not showing reduction of emissions from the power sector or the reductions are marginal at best.
You should know it better and it has been shown many times - wind does not displace FFs. In fact it requires FFs as a backup where hydro is not enough (which is almost everywhere in the developed world).
You are submiting to your dream world of HVDC lines from LA to NY and pumped storage from the Great Lakes to Louisiana on your own risk. Are you going to take the responsibility when this logically ends up not the path taken? Your dreaming is just encouraging a dangerous distraction while in the meantime the arctic is melting.
Personally I used to be worried about GW, but after I found out that the arctic has lost 1mln.km2 of ice in just one year I'm starting to be terrified about it. I want to let you know that I intend to contact you in 10 years time - I promise I'll come back with the numbers and ask you do you feel responsible for effectively promoting coal?
eric blair I won't ask because I know he considers himself beyond any numbers or rational arguments.
Have a good night
I've been reading the discussion and I can't think how shallow some mind-reasonings can be. It's all about politics. Wind and Solar are the future, not because coal and oil aren't more easy as sources of energy, but because they will peak and are a dreadful solution for global warming.
So what if wind still doesn't generate much? It's growth is staggering. For anyone who doesn't understand statistics, one could get in the error of thought that coal is growing faster than wind because the capacity generator of coal is greater than wind. That's present. That's not the future. If you want to look at the future, check the percentage of energy that is wind-generated, and voilá, that's always increasing, not decreasing.
There is a line in here that says something like, the human misunderstands the exponential function. That's your symptom. You do not understand that the new power generated from the nukes did not meant an increase of power capacity. It just meant the increase of percentage of use of that capacity. There's so much capacity as there is, and now they are using 90% of it, up from 60% decades ago. But that trend is over, it should be obvious.
Oil and Gas will get more and more expensive to create new power out of them. Solar and Wind can only boom in such an economic environment. In fact, they already are, though they still are not very economical. Imagine when they are economical. Boom! Boom!
You mention the lack of progress of Spain, Denmark, etc, in terms of carbon output. But that is still close-minded pessimism, because these countries still run gasoline cars, still use a lot of carbon in power generators, etc. Progress is still going, they have still a lot of a path to go into. Now imagine such a path. And imagine how back far the USA is still. Like Chevron ads ask: "where do you live?"
One has to have a clear sight of the future. If I look at coal in terms of an infinite and "green" resource, I could not but have disdain of wind and solar. But its not. Coal will get expensive, and as a politician that knows that rome wasn't built in a day, I would know that solar and wind still need time, incentives and lots of investment, but that they clearly are the only future worth of fighting for.
And what do you intend to do about it? To get hysterical? Dreaming is not a distraction, it is a motivation, a desire. If one lacks it, I recommend suicide. Pick a good sharp razor and quickly cut the jugular. That's as efficient as it can get. If not, don't blame people for dreaming. Why can't people dream? The holocaust didn't stop making people dream. Hiroshima didn't. Why would the ice-less arctic do it? I've heard many times that it is in times of oppression that art and dreams most flourish.
In the meantime, I can't see but a pack of energy power generators in line, polluters and not polluters. In the future, a dream is required. There's unknowns known, but there are also unknowns unknown, you know? Who knows? Tomorrow, I'll freak out. Not today. Let's dream a little today.
Wind proponents need to prove that the exponential growth of wind power can and will be sustained. It is a very convenient assumption that since it grew 20-30% previous 2-3 years it will grow like this forever. The figure that really matters is that wind grew from 0.2% in 2000 to 0.8% in 2006. Very impressive, isn't it?
I have real world references to back it that the "wind rush" can not sustained. Denmark, Spain and even Germany are already backing off wind power. The reasons are logistic and infrastructural and are arising from the very nature of this energy source. It does not displace fossil fuels and does not reduce emission. Not a single coal power plant has been retired in these countries.
If you want to know why you should read about the technical difficulties of incorporating wind power in the grid.
Wind proponents need to prove that the exponential growth of wind power can and will be sustained.
Why? Because *YOU* say so?
You've done such a poor job of justifying fission power, why should ANYONE think your claim of "Wind proponents need to prove that the exponential growth of wind power can and will be sustained" has any kind of validity?
It is the fault of the industry and the technology that nuke cannot be built quickly. The industry killed itself through a long series of massive failures (not ended, UK may scrap a $4+ billion fuel recycling plant). Zimmer alone should profoundly scare *ANY* responsible Board of Directors.
I do support more nukes. I HOPE that TXU I and Calvert Cliffs will open in 8 or 9 years and TXU II a year later. I EXPECT that TXU I and Calvert Cliffs will open in 11 years. I recognize reality.
You are supporting a broken down car stuck/frozen in the mud. I am supporting a car that has just started rolling down a BIG mountain.
And my support for nuke will, in the end, do more good for the nuclear industry than will your "Rah Rah" support. For your type of uncritical support is what lead to such financial disasters that killed the industry for two decades.
I wish that it were different, but the industry killed itself. Half and third complete plants were abandoned, WHOOPS I, III, IV, V were sold as scrap.
T Boone Pickens has announced plans to build 4 GW of wind turbines for $6 billion. He could have bought a nuke for that (two according to industry claims). Why didn't he ?
BTW, Louisiana would be best served by a triangle of HV DC lines from wind turbines in west Texas, the Ozark Mountains of Arkansas (pumped storage) and Louisiana (and our two existing nukes plus a couple more and some solar PV PLUS a lot of conservation).
And wind does in fact displace fossil fuels. A cold back-up plant does not consume fossil fuels. WTs do not require significant spinning reserves (basically zero), whilst nukes require MASSIVE spinning reserves ! It is nukes, and not wind, that have the hidden FF burning supporting their daily operations.
As of 6/30/2007, Texas had 3,352 MW of wind turbines in operation (significantly more as of this morning, probably one or four MW more by late this afternoon) and 1,246 MW under active construction. All those under construction PLUS some not yet started will be in operation by 12/31/08. I see that as positive support for reduced GHG. As well as conservation, the other large scale quick response.
Best Hopes for a Rush to Wind and a moderate build-up of nuke,
Alan
First I don't consider a industry that provides 1/5 of electricity and about 30 times as much as wind a failed industry.
With close to 150 civilian reactors ever built in the US the percentage of the failed ones is relatively small, less than 10%. And most of them failed because of economic reasons - cheap coal and NG, high interest rates which would have also killed wind projects too. The percentage of poorly built or managed ones is relatively small... and it can be safely asserted that those mistakes from the past are well taken into account.
As you know wind hardly displaces backup capacity. I have met estimates that it can safely displace only 7 to 8% of its nameplate capacity, and this percentage goes down with increasing wind penetration. What you fail to take into account is that "cold backup" is not cold at all. It has to be kept running and vary by the minute to match both wind and demand variation. First this causes the plants to run more inefficiently and produce more GHG, second there is the obvious paradox that for each kwth of wind produced there must be several FF kwth produced just to fill the gap between varying wind and the demand. So wind will always require FFs - at least in the foreseeable future.
This problem does not exist with nuclear - France, Lithuania have demonstrated more than 75% penetration. Overcapacity plants can simply be shutdown at night for maintenance. Or the electricity may be balanced with hydro or exported - the marginal cost of a nuke kwth is almost negligible.
At the same time not a single country has demonstrated more than 10% wind (I'm excluding Denmark - as a matter of fact wind meets only 5% of its local consumption the rest is dumped on the Norwegians). Denmark and Germany have not decommissioned a single coal power plant and the coal industry is as strong as ever - mostly because wind unreliability and the lack of nuclear assure it will be there to stay.
Finally - I am very far from uncritical to the US nuclear industry. I also think they screwed up big time on many accounts, but this pales in comparison what the Soviets did. I know it will be a pain until it recovers its credibility, but let's face the facts - in spite of several mishups and financial disasters, not a single person has been killed by a radiation incident in the US and the environment has nowhere been affected in any significant way.
Coal kills by the hundreds and destroys large areas and nobody calls it a "failed" industry. Why?
Re: tens to hundreds of billions to clean up fuel reprocessing plants. I guess you can provide the source for this information too?
BTW what you said somehow contradicts official information:
Thorp restart approved
Do you have some different insider information?
Best hopes for rational discussions of non GHG energy production.
I did not see that regularity approval (although UK nuke regs tend to be generally far too lax). No actually restart has been announced AFAIK (via Google).
As of today, Sellafield has been a massive financial disaster. A $4+ billion plant idled for over 2 years, with most of the personnel kept on the payroll.
The UK gov't is in between a rock and a hard spot. Scrap Sellafield and there is no means of disposing of waste fuel.
Alan
You need something to back your assertion that Sellafield has been a financial disaster. The plant has been operating since 1994, so it has 11 years of operation which have generated a certain cash flow.
Personally I am all for being precautionary about the nuclear safety, but the fact of the matter is that nothing disastrous happened with the leak incident. The plant behaved as designed and the leak was contained within the secondary containment. Of course the operator must work on the safety procedures, but again - nothing disastrous happened and nobody was hurt.
If I owned stock in a $4+ billion plant (say a petrochemical plant or world's largest aluminum refinery), it had a major and dangerous leak for 9 months (long enough to potentially get past a secondary barrier BTW). It was down for over 2 years with no clear restart date in sight, meanwhile I have to keep most of the skilled payroll twiddling their thumbs (money out nothing in) AND the governments of Ireland and Norway were calling for permanent closure, then I would call that plant a MAJOR FINANCIAL DISASTER !
Just what is a financial disaster to you ? Three Mile Island ? Zimmer ? WHOOPS I, III, IV, V ? Watts Bar I & II ? Browns Ferry I ? Bellafonte I & II ? Yellow Creek ? Rancho Seco ? Ft. St. Vrain ?
ALL are major financial disasters to me, as well as twenty or fifty more US nuclear reactors.
Sellafield is another in a VERY long list of nuclear industry financial failures. Promoters can spin scenarios to suck investment in, but at least $100 billion has gone bad.
Face it, as Constellation said about Calvert Cliffs III (see today's DrumBeat), it *ALL* depends upon gov't subsidies. Subprime financing for new nukes backed by a gov't guaranty. Yes, nuke deserves it's subsidy for good and proper reasons, but it should stand in line behind faster and better solutions.
NEW NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS ARE NOT COMMERCIALLY VIABLE in the USA.
Alan
although UK nuke regs tend to be generally far too lax
Yea...that is why "The 50-year clear-up will cost at least £4bn and will guarantee about 2,000 jobs over the next two decades.
But it could be 300 years before some parts of the site are completely free of radioactivity. "
Or why "The UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) has not yet decided what to do with more than 25 tonnes of highly radioactive fuel stored on the Caithness site."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/962653.stm
I found Kunstlers comments about the end of suburbia, and the construction guys in the pickemup trucks interesting. I did some house framing some time ago and found that the only person that needed a pick up was the contractor/foreman on the job. The rest of the carpenters need little beside their tool pouches which contain a speed square, framing hammer, tape, nails, chalk line, and a few other odd tools. The contractor/foremans truck and trailer contain the nail guns, compressor, generator, skil saws, extension cords, air hoses, etc. Truth be known the entire crew could ride bicycles or mopeds to the job site and home after work...that is, if there is any work. Of course mopeds are hard to come by these days. At one time Honda made a nice little 70cc motorbike, the Passport, and have produced over 50 million Passports making it the largest selling motorcycle of all time. They are still being produced but have not been imported into the US since 1984. Too bad cause they get about 100-125 mpg, are ok for back streets at a top speed of 45mph, and are great for running to the grocery store or other errands and when equipped with three optional large baskets will carry a lot of groceries or other stuff...like tool pouches. I suppose it would be too much to ask of a framer to show up at the job site riding a moped...might bruise his/her ego...And riding home while drinking a cold brew would be problematic. BTW, last I checked Honda was still the leader in motorcycle sales with its Honda Hero 125cc bike selling like hot cakes in India and elsewhere...although I think this Honda is made in China under license from Honda. Anyone care to calculate how much fuel could be saved if 80% of SUVs, pick ups, were replaced by mopeds and bicycles?
Well, fortunately public opinion against SUVs is slooowly picking up steam it appears. Fast enough to do any good?
This whole thing is taking place in seeming slow motion. The July/August price peak happened right on schedule, had thought bigger problems might appear this fall, but now not so sure it will take place. Global demand does look to have been hurt, witness all of the smaller countries whose people do not have power or can not get/afford petroleum products now.
We may make it through another season or two without big problems?
Yeah, sure. There was such a backlash that GM truck sales were up 15% in August.
Unless of course you think there was a hiring binge among construction companies.
Yeah right, sure, GM lays off 1200 people in their Oshawa plant in Canada, which produces Silverado's, and a few days later announces double-digit sales gains in the same Silverado's.
Don't believe everything you read.
Even if they did see gains, that comes on the heels of double digit declines for June and July, coupled with end of year model pricing and crazy incentives ($0 down, 0% interest rates, no payments til 2008 - it looks like some cheap pawn shop deal!!). A greater question would be even if sales increased this month can they keep sales up (nevermind growing, just keep them where they are)? And the answer to that looks increasingly like a big NO.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
The announced lay-offs at their most productive truck plant is a sufficient answer to that question. I can't even be bothered to figure out compared to what the sales gains were calculated. It feels like a hologram within the hologram.
I know. But hey, according to other people there is no credit crunch, economic growth is just fine, and we might see a recession next year, maybe, sorta, kinda. After all, those government stats are all 100% verifiably the absolute best that corporate dollars can buy, right?
;)
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
They came with a pile of money on the hood. Not as much as the 11$K off list on Dodges with dealer matches but getting there.
Such a wonderful deal, walk into a dealer and drive out with a new truck and 5 grand in your pocket. Talk about sub-prime.
Quite a few were upside down in their trades as much as 10K already.
The beat goes on.
Agreed...and let us not overlook fleet sales. One order from Uncle Sam can make sales figures turn rosy...not to mention large utility companies, state, county and local governments, etc.
GM Silverado. O% APR for 60 months. We pay you to haul our product off the lot!!
And then we terminate all the folks that helped us fulfil this crazzzeeeee offer!!!
Next month our stock goes on sale!! 50% OFF!!
Funny you should mention a shortage of small motorbikes. We had around 1,600 scooters parading over here a few days ago. They were trying to break a world record. Unfortunately, they were all the old-fashioned 2-stroke variety - Vespas and Lambrettas - and at an average age of 40.
You cannot compare them to the Honda 50's that were also popular at that time. I think small motorbikes have a future ahead of them. My neighbour (we live in the same building) has 3 huge machines of which one is a racing Honda with 162 Horsepower. I cannot quite see him on one of these small bikes though. Even if fuel were at $20/gallon - it is already at $8/gallon over here.
Alfred, I agree that small scooters and mopeds have a future...not only 'over there' but also over here. Mass transit is sorely needed but Merkins need to be weened from thier large 4 wheel vehicles that offer them the freedom to go when they choose, even if going on a small motorbike means a much shorter distance traveled. A trip on a motorbike to run errands, go to the library, movie, grocery, beach/park or just a short ride to 'change the air in ones head' is sometimes an excellent cure for cabin fever. Honda and Harley, are you listening? The Honda Passport is a 4 cycle single cylinder and something similiar is needed today in the US. I have noticed many new brands of Chinese made scooters being imported and I follow the chat room talk about these machines...mostly poor construction, poor reliability, poor everything. Economical and reliable are paramount, keep the metalflake paint and chrome. I am a Harley rider and we have a saying...'chrome wont get you home.'
I have several people asking me to build them scooters based on the ones I have built previously. I can build them for 400-500$ where as you pay through the nose for anything else...
Not to mention mine are 200cc and roadlegal due to loopholes ;-)
Really? ...and what engine (200cc) do you use and where is it fabricated? Do you fabricate the frame, fenders, wiring harness, lights, brakes, wheels, etc? If not, where do you get these items? A good quality 125cc Chinese made copy of a Honda engine costs $320 plus shipping on Ebay.
Road legal due to loopholes? In what states? What loopholes? Roadlegal on interstates or on city streets?
That's interesting. I bought a new 150cc Aprilia Scarabeo for $4200 in 2005. I would be interested to see what you're building.
Generally one gets what one pays for. I have a friend that has an Aprilia scoot but dont know what model. I believe he said it is a 400cc but would not swear to that. It was pricey but has served him well. He rides it around town a lot and once took it on a trip to Gainsville, about 190 miles round trip. He said that it was too wind sensitive for high speed highway riding but he owns 5 BMWs of various vintages that are fine for the highway. My friend has logged over 1/4 million miles on BMWs so he is a fairly competent judge of bikes. Long ago I owned a couple of Cushman Eagles and a Cushman Highlander...they were dinosaurs and not very reliable but easy to repair with bailing wire and vice grips. Have you seen the Honda Big Ruckus? Interesting looking scoot and should be fuel efficient with the 250cc water cooled engine. I already have four bikes so the wife might not notice one more in the garage? If gas rationing is in our future small efficient bikes should be in demand.
The 150cc does 72 mph on the highway and I drove it up to New Hampshire and back this summer, which is about 400 miles. Gets about 70 miles to the gallon, but requires 93+ octane. The wheels are motorcycle sized and not small like most scooters (even the Big Ruckus has small scooter wheels) and it feels very stable at high speeds. It probably does not feel as stable as a 600 pound Harley since it weighs in at 300 pounds, but it feels more stable than a Honda Civic.
The only reason I try to minimize highway travel is because of other drivers. I have looked at other scooter brands including Hondas, and I get turned off by the tiny wheels and the "Anime" style design. I'm really fond of the Scarabeo retro-futuristic look. However there does seem to be a lot happening in the "automatic motorcycle" market and I keep an open mind.
Aprilia stopped making the 150cc Scarabeo this year and now markets the 500cc version exclusively in the US. That one is supposed to do well over 100 mph :) They have another line called the Atlantic and I believe they made that with a 400.
I'd be happy if Honda brought the VTR 250 back to the U.S. During Honda's "mystery years" of 1988 and '89 (when they brought over a lot of interesting models and then went "woops, sorry US, these are too cool for you") they imported a batch of VTR 250's...little 250cc V-twins which have a lot of bite for a 250 and corner like a cat on a carpet. They're still making them, and they're still neat looking...but they don't make it to U.S. shores.
Newer VTR 250's:
http://www.bikez.com/bike/index.php?bike=20167
Ones that made it to the U.S.A.:
http://www.angelar.com/~jeremy/vtr/vtr250pics.html
Most of the big Hondas cannot be purchased in Japan - they are only for export.
In the UK, there are still a lot of small ones around - mostly parked in garages.
I have a W 650 Kawasaki...vertical twin that looks similar to the late 1960s Triumphs, BSAs, etc. It has an internal counter balancer to eliminate vibration and it works well if not perfect. Some of the Brit bikes that I have owned...74 Norton Commando, 64 Triumph Bonnie, 68 Triumph Bonnie, 69 Triumph TR6C (dual purpose). The Kawi has kick and electric start, great fuel economy, and handles very well...and doesnt have Lucas electrical system! Problem is, Kawi imported them into the US for only two years. Now they are a hot commodity on the used bike market here. There is a Triumph dealer about 5 miles from me and some of their new bikes are interesting. They dont have the eye appeal of the old Triumphs but dont dont hurt the eyes. I need a bigger garage... :)