DrumBeat: September 30, 2007


Saudi Arabia expected to meet rising oil demand

Ghawar is hence crucial to continued Saudi production and meeting the galloping global requirements. People like Matthew Simmons have been arguing for years now that Ghawar is on decline. That is a cause of major concern to the energy fraternity.

Stuart Staniford is another sceptic. He recently undertook computer study of the publicly available information on Ghawar. After going through the available data on Saudi production before 1980, Staniford infers that the depth of the remaining oil column in northern Ghawar at that time was about 500 feet.

And with water level rising by about 18.4 feet per year, Staniford extrapolates that the northern part of Ghawar by now is quite depleted.

Iraq and Angola oil output will soar in two years

The oil output of Iraq and Angola, two members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), which are outside the Opec-10, is set to rise over the next two years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).


Algeria says OPEC output rise would not halt prices

Any decision by OPEC to expand oil output further would fail to stop crude prices from climbing, the Algerian official news agency APS quoted Algeria's energy minister as saying on Saturday.

"I think a further production rise would not stop oil prices from soaring because geopolitical problems still exist," APS quoted Chakib Khelil as saying.


Black gold turns grey as Western giants prepare to draw from the wells of Iraq

The big oil multinationals thought the prize was theirs under new production-sharing agreements in the war-torn country. But the 'Iraqi wealth for the Iraqi people' movement is growing amid internecine conflicts and trade union resistance.


“Black Rush” in Sakhalin: For a Dramatic Discovery of Oil and Natural Gas

Skyrocketing oil prices since 2000 have triggered global companies to dive into the oil and natural gas fields in Sakhalin. The so-called “black rush” was initiated by Exxon Mobil which started digging up 100,000 tons of oil a day in the Sakhalin Oil Field 1 in 2005. For discovery of the “black gold,” not only major global oil companies such as Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell and BP, but also government officials from countries around the globe including China, India, Japan and Turkey are paying frequent visits to Sakhalin.


Costly Fuel Is Never Far From a Match

THERE are deep roots to Myanmar’s current unrest, pitting its repressive regime against Buddhist monks, but the immediate spark was the junta’s unexpected decision in August to double fuel prices. Overnight, diesel prices skyrocketed, and compressed natural gas rose fivefold.

In this respect, Myanmar is not an isolated case. Rising oil prices in recent years have created all kinds of headaches as they have rippled across the world. Many governments, especially in the developing world, have had to choose between raising domestic subsidies to offset the increases or letting the people bear the brunt.


How Economy Could Survive Oil At $100 A Barrel

The world economy has managed, with some indigestion, to swallow the rise of oil prices past $80 a barrel. How well could it survive $100 a barrel? The answer is quite well -- so long as several conditions still hold true. The price rise would probably have to be gradual. Inflation couldn't get so bad as to force big interest-rate hikes. Oil-rich nations would need to pump their profits back into U.S. and European economies.


Does BP have licence to drill?

The price of oil adds to the intrigue. Four years ago you could buy a barrel of the black stuff for $25. It trebled in price in the next 36 months, then fell from $75 to $50, only to climb above $80 this year. Oil price volatility is a headache because it makes BP’s exploration investment decisions more risky. But by and large the upwardly mobile oil price has helped, and masked, BP’s disconcerting company-specific problems.


Riding an Israeli electric car to peace

Cornucopians are becoming extinct; scientists, engineers, politicians, and oil tycoons have recognized that we have used 50% of the world's oil supply in less than 150 years, and with China and India ramping up their industrial economies we may run out of our most used energy source in far less time. A full circle energy solution would include fully renewable sources of energy such as solar, wind, geothermal and hydroelectric along with efficient machines to plug into those systems. In other words, the West desperately needs a futuristic approach to life without oil. Enter Israel.


Wind power only part of the solution

Kunstler, a New York author and frequent speaker at environmental conferences, said he sees more similarities than differences between the "greenies" and the giant corporations, land developers and others they oppose.

What they have in common is a belief -- a delusion, Kunstler says -- that the current way of life can be maintained; the only difference is that "green yuppies" think they'll have to pull up to the filling station and put something other than gasoline in their fuel tanks.


Oman crude oil prices up 7.5pc for November

Middle East crudes climbed this month as refiners snatched up cargoes on concerns that maintenance at fields in Abu Dhabi would limit supplies for October and November. Royal Dutch Shell Plc's buying of a record 310 Dubai partials contracts through the oil pricing system of Platts boosted prices.


Corn-to-Ethanol: US Agribusiness Magic Path To A World Food Monopoly

Eight years of Biofuels (ethanol) policy and legislation has cemented in place the first world wide food cabal, which promises a humanitarian disaster, a famine more serious than those caused by any tsunami, earthquake or drought. This crisis is not in the dim future, it is here.


Mandelson told to halt biofuel flood

BIOFUELS firms are demanding the British government and the European Union take action to stop American rivals exploiting subsidies to flood the European markets with cut-price fuel.


Texas biodiesel low on fuel?

A series of bad blows -- high corn prices, intense commodity speculation, a shortage of crushing plants and excess production capacity -- have formed a "perfect storm" for the fledgling Texas biodiesel industry.

At least two small biodiesel production plants in Texas already have ceased operating for lack of feedstock, says an industry source, and it's likely that across the nation more will be shuttered, energy economists say.


Unions and nuclear energy

The International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers has stepped into the fight over whether to renew the Oyster Creek nuclear power plant's operating license.

Chip Gerrity, president of the IBEW's state chapter, says his union's support of relicensing reflects the Lacey Township plant's economic importance for the state, along with its contribution to limiting greenhouse gas emissions and providing an alternative to importing oil.


As Prices Soar, U.S. Food Aid Buys Less

Soaring food prices, driven in part by demand for ethanol made from corn, have helped slash the amount of food aid the government buys to its lowest level in a decade, possibly resulting in more hungry people around the world this year.

The United States, the world’s dominant donor, has purchased less than half the amount of food aid this year that it did in 2000, according to new data from the Department of Agriculture.


Hold onto your wallet

THE squeeze on the ordinary American promises only to get worse as the world price of oil goes up, the U.S. economy fails to create jobs, mortgage foreclosures increase, and the value of the dollar falls against other currencies.


Operators balance safety with production

Any storm, small or large, has the potential to shut down all production in the Gulf of Mexico, or about 25 percent of the nation's oil and gas production.

And even a small supply interruption could easily trigger panic buying across the nation, resulting in a critical shortage, Shell Oil President John Hoffmeister said this month in a speech in New Orleans. Hoffmeister said the country is just one hurricane away from that scenario.


Nigeria loses ground in OPEC in face of unrest

Oil output in Nigeria has plunged by a quarter since the start of 2006 in the face of political unrest in the Niger Delta, reducing the country's influence in OPEC and limiting the effectiveness of OPEC itself.


New oil law is not in Iraq's interest

Iraq's draft oil and gas law, which was approved by the Iraqi government in April and which is scheduled for parliamentary approval, is one of the most dangerous laws issued since the occupation of the country began in 2003.

The permanent constitution, passed in 2005, is another dangerous document that threatens the future of Iraq.


China to invest vast foreign reserves

The Chinese government launched a company Saturday to invest $200 billion from its vast foreign reserves, creating one of the world's richest investment funds at a time of rising scrutiny of such state-run entities.

Financial analysts are watching to see where the new company invests and the impact on financial markets, especially demand for U.S. Treasury securities, in which Beijing holds a big share of its reserves.


Big, bad oil in all its glory: Stupid to the Last Drop: How Alberta Is Bringing Environmental Armageddon to Canada (And Doesn't Seem to Care)

William Marsden's book, Stupid to the Last Drop, paints a darker picture of the oilsands. Not only does Marsden argue that Alberta's oil business poses significant environmental risks, he tries to portray the industry and its supporters as somewhat thick.


The Race Against Warming

It's the oldest and most cliched of metaphors, but when it comes to global warming, it's the only one that really works: We're in a desperate race. Politics is chasing reality, and the gap between them isn't closing nearly fast enough.


L.A. County calling for lights-out hour

Coordinating with San Francisco's plan, officials are urging Angelenos to agree to a voluntary blackout one day next month to help conserve energy.


Others have moved past their oil addiction

While Brazil didn’t have enough fossil fuel, it did have a wealth of sugarcane. Sugarcane was found to be an efficient source of biofuel, much better than the corn kernels we use. The switch to biofuel was an instant success, and cars running on alcool quickly hit the market.


Controlling costs key to keeping biofuels competitive

Ethanol needs to be able to compete with oil prices in the $30-$50 range, James Woolsey, former CIA director and now an advocate for renewable energy, said during the recent Renewable on Parade conference.


Solar pushes for tax breaks

Hoping that federal regulators follow the lead of states like Florida and California, the solar energy industry is launching a major effort to persuade Congress to extend tax breaks and other incentives they say are critical to keep the industry's recent momentum going.


The Earth is out of time

ANOTHER week on a changing planet. Australian farmers struggling through the worst drought on record are offered $150,000 by Canberra to walk off their land. Federal police chief Mick Keelty declares climate change - not terrorism - as the greatest threat to national security (a position doused down yesterday to an "equal" threat). Scientists drop a red-hot report forecasting catastrophic wildfires as a regular hazard of Australian summers. Suburbanites spooked by drought-inflated grocery bills contemplate a return to the vegie patch, but how to water it?


Algae Against Climate Change?

Research into the use of algae to capture carbon dioxide from the air is changing the negative reputation of these organisms, often seen as a plague associated with agricultural fertiliser run-off.


At Climate Meeting, Bush Does Not Specify Goals

President Bush said Friday that the nations that contribute most to global warming should all set goals for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. But he did not specify what those goals should be and repeated his stand that nations should not be held to mandatory targets for capping carbon dioxide emissions.

Alan FBE(if you're out there),
I don't recall seeing it mentioned in your electrification of rail the potential for dual purpose infrastructure. With solar, and particularly solar thermal in mind, the vast resources are located in the southwestern US. The main problem with that, of course, is that not everyone in the country lives in the southwestern US. Thus, to bring the power generated there to everyone else would require a vast transmission infrastructure which doesn't exist. Why not combine the HVDC rail electrification with HVDC renewable energy distribution infrastructure? If you want to get even more creative figure out a way for the cable/telephone/communications industry to get a "subsidized" ride on the infrastructure as well with cheap tower access or right of way privileges. The more parties you can get interested, the better chances you have.

Just back from DC a few hours ago.

HV DC cannot be used directly to operate trains (Low Voltage DC 600 V to 3 kV DC, is used, but 500 kV DC cannot be transformed down to usable DC voltages).

I have heard that US railroads East of the Mississippi should be electrified at 25 kV AC, and 50 kV AC West of the Mississippi and in Canada.

One can push these voltages only a few dozen miles, so a high voltage feeder is required.

One thought (not my area of expertise) is 500 kV DC in the corridor with "drops" (inverters to AC) every hundred miles or so to 150 kV AC which is then transformed to train voltage (25 or 50 kV AC) every dozen or two miles.

Using rail corridors for electrical transmission is a substantial value added to rail electrification.

Best Hopes

Alan

One thought (not my area of expertise) is 500 kV DC in the corridor with "drops" (inverters to AC) every hundred miles or so to 150 kV AC which is then transformed to train voltage (25 or 50 kV AC) every dozen or two miles.

I would definately like to see someone answer this question. Most of the transmission voltages out here in the west are.
500KVAC
345KVAC
230KVAC
115KVAC
and 69KVAC down to distribution voltages.

I doubt seriously HVDC will be used much out here in the west due to all the varying HVAC lines already in existance. Not to mention that those "Inverters" if they make them at that voltage aren't going to be cheap.

old hermit

"you can cure ignorance, but you can't educate stupitidy"

There is already the Pacific Intertie HV DC in operation from The Dalles outside Portland OR to Los Angeles.

Northern Lights proposes an HV DC line from Ft. McMurray to San Francisco and another twin line from Montana (one leg) and Wyoming (other leg) to Las Vegas where it splits into legs to Los Angeles and Phoenix.

Sweden runs a complex grid mixture of HV AC & HV DC transmission lines. Mix & match works well.

Alan

If HVDC lines are used in the Los Angeles area, could stray leakage from the lines be used to ionize the air so that smog particles would charge up and head for the ground?

AFAIK, this would be very similar to the cleansing effect a good electrical storm would do.

I hope not - they could stick to your lungs at ground potential.

I would like to know whatever happened to the HV power line vs humans debate. It raged for a decade with conflicting results until some brightspark decided to include wind direction and bingo it was not the fields which made you bad, it was the drift of charged airborne crap that poisons you. Since that very logical result was suggested there has been no MSM reporting of results, no data that I have read [and I do read EEngineering texts]. Is the truth out there??

Thanks for the insight on the charged particle theory - it sounds a helluva lot more plausible to me than the field theory about getting sick around power lines.

If ANYONE gets sick from fields, I should have been among the first in line. I have been playing with RF, high voltage, and magnetism since I was in elementary school. Neither me, nor any of the like-minded friends that have the same affliction for this kind of technology have noted any increased likelihood of our demise from messing around with our toys, albeit we have all definitely noted our type do not attract women, nor do we develop the kind of "people skills" required to stay employed in a corporate environment. But then, we are not trying all that hard to be richer than everyone else or reproduce. Physics, not politics, is the "video game" of addiction for me.

I saw how fast I could clear a room of tobacco smoke using nothing more than a few parts I scrounged from an old TV. I noted how fast I could make all the cigarette smoke in the room head for some tinfoil suspended from the ceiling suspended from fishing line. It cleaned the air but made a really sticky mess on the tinfoil. All it took was a few -5KV emitters and one big +20KV "attractor".

If some old TV flybacks barely loaded would clear a room like that, I could just imagine using power lines for emitters, and placing a few "attractors" where I wanted the majority of the airborne gooey stuff to go.

Steve

Everyone is using the "Wiley Coyote" metaphor. He goes out over the cliff but doesn't drop right away.

I think that visual is perfect. AND it explains why some of us can't believe it has taken this long, (we thought he should fall right away cause of gravity, but we didn't realize we were living in Cartoon financial reality).

Here's the timetable I put together using the scenes in the Road Runner "Over the cliff" joke as phases.

----
He went out over the cliff about 4-x years ago.

18-24 months ago he stopped.

12-18 months ago he looked down

6-12 months ago he looked at the camera

Now -6 months ago he puts up a sign or waves with a sad look
and his feet start dropping down. (this was bears stearns moment)

Soon - 6mos (by 1st qtr 2008) the body and head will disappear.

6-24 months from now the camera follows his fall.

THAT IS WHERE WE'RE AT

I agree with the basic image, but I think it may go a lot slower than that. It's a big system, and there's a heck of a lot of inertia.

I'm not ruling out an imminent crash, but I wouldn't be surprised if it took a decade or decades to play out fully. Nobody wants a financial collapse, so they'll all be doing their best to avert it or at least slow it.

Another image is Wiley facing a speeding train, a bullet, a bomb etc. We are right now facing competition as far as what will be the key overshoot condition that causes our economies to crumble. GW,Peak Oil etc etc.

Whats amazing to me is that its fairly easy to access all these issues and become concerned that we are facing potentially dire situations in the near future.

Yet the world seems hell bent on ignoring all this and its party on. And to me the real tragedy is how our elected officials are handling this. One thing that is now missed is that part of being a leader is making unpopular decisions that are the right thing to do. This concept has been completely abandoned and I think its one of the key reasons why we will not recognize or problems until its too late.

Both our political and our economic systems are very short-sighted. One of the most depressing articles I've come across is the one where a survey of CEOs showed that they are all very worried about high energy costs and climate change, but they aren't doing anything about it. Basically, they are hoping that it won't happen on their watch. The politicians are doubtless doing the same thing: just hoping it will hold off until it's someone else's problem.

And why not? It's always worked before. As the cornucopian types like to point out, people have been warning that we'll run out of resources since Malthus, and about climate change for 30 or 40 years. But business as usual has gone on, more or less as usual.

That does not mean it will go on forever, but it does give people reasonable hope that when TSHTF, it will be someone else's problem.

It may be that politicians, even if they are PO aware will be reluctant to speak out. When confronted with an unusual challenge or novel threat, the most common response of administrators is to ignore it. Errors of commission are seen to be worse than errors of omission. In business and public administration it is always good to be correct, but if one has to be wrong, it is best to be wrong at the same time as everyone else and if you don't do anything you can't do anthing wrong! From their point of view it is a no-brainer.

Tom Whipple put it this way:

“Thus, the real dilemma of coping (with) peak oil, for a while at least, is really quite simple. If the government should lay out the full ramifications of peaking in hopes of rallying the people to make preparations, the most immediate consequence is likely to be serious economic setback triggered by an unambiguous announcement itself.
The alternative is to remain silent. Leave the future a bit murky with room for hope. Don’t panic anybody into selling assets or husbanding their money with talk of an unaffordable future. Talk about reducing dependence of foreign oil instead. This carries the implication that the foreign oil will always be there in an emergency and that reducing dependence will be a matter of patriotic choice not necessity.
As no responsible government wants to see economic troubles start any sooner than absolutely necessary, there will probably never be a strong, clear, unambiguous, widely disseminated report on the timing of peak oil.”

Maybe W will announce peak oil as a parting gift to his successor. That could set up a chance for Republican victories in 2010 and 2012, because of the economic downturn that would likely result.

I can see how governmental members might not want to publicize PO or threats of economic collapse. However, they should be making quiet preparations. For example, we could have heavily funded NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) for the last decade or more. Just like Kennedy set a goal of putting a man on the moon we could have set a goal of XX% of electric power generated by the sun. We could have been building a series of 1GW solar power plants as experiments. We could have been slowly ratcheting up CAFE standards. None of this has to be related to a public sense of panic or fear.

On a side note, this administration has had no qualms about scaring the public with threats of terror, mushroom clouds over American cities, etc. Recall the advice to go out and buy duct tape and plastic sheeting?

When you get right down to it someone is going to have to do without. Without energy, food, medicine, something, and this will cause death. This holds horror to most peoples sense of decency, so avoiding it makes a lot of sense to me.
Publicly and privately we do not want to play god and choose by conscience thought who gets to live and who gets to die. There are exceptions to this - usually people who have not witnessed war vs vets such as the ones on Ken Burns latest special on WW ll.
I just finished the book called "The Road". Fiction about post nuke war. Most chilling was the actions between the groups of survivors. Kill or be killed, hide, steal, all rules leave, as the search for food was paramount.
Nature will choose for us who lives and dies, I guess she always has.
PO, GW, etc. is getting more mainstream press notably in National Geographic. The last two years of articles are dealing more and more with the problems we face.
The last issue deals directly with biofuels. There is no bio anything that will save our current auto life style here in the US. The powers that be are trying to hang on, I fear that common sense will be the least common sense in the future and we will suffer more than necessary. I would not want to be a Hispanic in the US today. I think they will become the scapegoat of the coming collapse.

As so many are keen to point out we can build a new future. Sustainable buildings (high thermal mass, airtight construction and heat recovery ventilation) We can design communities intelligently and avoid the need to consume as much energy in the first place. Things are looking bad now but 5 - 10 years down the line they could very easily be infinatly worse, thats why its so important to make this a big issue. We need a way to reform our economies that takes into account energy, emissions, health and hapiness. The bigggest health issue in the 'civilised' world is obesity. With a better diet and excercise many health benefits would come. This issues ties up so many others and gives us an oppotunity to work out so many things in hopefully a short space of time. Video conferencing, teleworking and web 2.0 allow ideas to spread so fast to so many people.

Does 'waking up' (to use the matrix analogy) more people actually speed us towards economic problems as they no longer take part in the race? As good as the ELP plan is would it cause problems if implemented by many people on a short time scale. Low skilled local jobs are going to be a big area, I see large groups of volunteers tending to farm land, renivating large housing into multi person housing, teaching and caring for children as jobs and travel are likely to be harder to come by. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that we can build strong local economies where everyone plays a part especially the pub land lord :)

Population decline could be managed without a lot of excess deaths, if we lived in a rational world and could employ a little foresight.

Those people are out-bred---and eventually that means their resources appropriated---by religious fanatics with none.

...and never, ever (according to Don Sailorman) discount the FED's ability to defy gravity. I'm not saying I place a lot of faith in this ability to avoid the inevitable, but it is amazing to me what they have been able to prevent. Of course, with omniscient abilities to do whatever they want to "fix" the market playing field, how would anyone really fail?

I can't believe Don Sailorman ever said anything like that - although I have not been able to keep up on TOD posts for quite awhile now, so I might be mistaken.

He did not say that verbatim. He said the FED has many tools at their disposal to keep the economey humming and they will use them. Sorry if my interpretation sounds different, but there it is.

If you like, I can go search the TOD archives to pull out relevant Sailorman posts.

What I said was that the Fed and other central banks have the power to prevent deflation. But we can have plenty of other economic problems in the absence of deflation that the Fed can't do anything about--such as Peak oil.

Kudos to you, Don, and welcome back. I recently reread No Deflation! Lots of Disinflation then Inflation over at ITulip.com. I had read this over a year ago but forgot all about it until recently. It seems to capture better my concerns about deflating assets while the Fed is ensuring that we don't deflate universally. Janszen opted to call this "disinflation" - deflation in some aspects of the economy while inflation roars ahead in others. The full idea is nicknamed the "Ka-Poom" Theory and actually has been reasonably accurate since it was first put forth in March of 2006. This idea better captures (for me, at least) the notion that some parts of the economy may become essentially worthless (moving to near zero value) while other parts explode in price as inflation goes through the roof. Have you read Janzsen's position on this? If so, what do you think?

Also, my father-in-law, who experienced the Great Depression, has asserted the same thing - to wit, that the Fed will do anything, even destroying the dollar via hyperinflation rather than let a deflationary depression set in. Because of his background he is still not convinced the Fed can accomplish total avoidance of a deflationary collapse but I understand why he worries about that, having lived through it once before.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone

so they didn't realize that if they put the plug in the drain the sink would fill to over flow?
also
they don't have a clue what might happen when they pull the plug?

BS

I understand that this is simplistic but all the armchair analysis of economics is mental masturbation on par with the sports enthusiast Monday morning QBing. (which is encouraged by TPTB as well as espn).

I am so disappointed in seeing otherwise top notch posters entering into the “inflation/deflation” bs.

It’s like saying “ oh! KSA didn’t know what advanced tech ( econ equilivent of new forms of Collateralized Debt Obligations and Structured Finance ) might do to oil reserve estimates.

Yeah, I buy that. (not)

Look I understand ya’ all are raking it in on your “investments” but surely you understand this is sucking out of the system without reasonable productive value?

I read (sorry no links right now) that less than 30% of stock market transactions actually benifit business finance/capital liquidity for productive society. Over 70% is just money juggling between entities and sucking or draining of profit/future profit of real time business activity.

I would argue that this is the #1 reason for Americas demise.

That you can be so pedantic about PO, GW, and economic collapse, and choose to ignore this the biggest real time manifistation of what is the problem just floors me.

Oh right, "thats the structure under which we are currently operating and how we will operate in the future so work with it”.

BS

TODers get down on folks for wanting a better world but being unable to release the drive everywhere, SUV thing.

Well, you can’t expect fundamental systemic change and at the same time be able to CASH IN on it. CAPICE?

I am really not even sure what you are saying, souperman2. Care to elaborate, perhaps in clearer language?

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone

Sorry, I just listened to round table talk on the dollar over at financialsense and what is happening just pisses me off to no end yet nothing will ever be done about it as long as there is money to be made.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

Antal Fekete's Can we Have Inflation and Deflation All at the Same Time? article is a fascinating one. In it he points out the distinction and disconnect between electronic money/credit creation and the real physical stuff/FR notes/T-bills. The ongoing crunch in the ABCP realm is one such manifestation we are witnessing of this sort.

Now I'm not smart enough to know exactly how or which way this whole financial house of cards will fall, but I do think Fekete's analysis is illuminating as to how we can have both in the ongoing fiscal crisis.

I'm of the opinion that despite the Fed's best efforts to inflate, all this loose electronic credit will eventually sputter to a stall. For the beleaguered populous, who are already stressed out in debt (on higher energy, food, medicine and educational costs, versus falling home equity, recessionary job & wage pressures) lessoning one's debt, not taking on more in the uncertain times ahead will be a huge influence. As will the increased premium that lenders will request despite the open flood gates of credit from the Fed.

In short, we will likely have a fair share of both inflation and deflation (iTulip's "disinflation") so long as the powers that be can keep this mess of global financial imbalances in relative check. Probably through the next year, but not much longer after is my 2¢ bet.

It is sort of the way I was thinking it might go.

Some of his points go right over my head as I'm more of a "street economist" :>), but the basic underlying reasoning seems sound on a gut level.

The basic underlying problem is the insolvency of the consumer as shown in the rapid increase of credit card debt without a equivalent increase in sales.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/09/bank-balance-sheets-a...

IMO the only thing Fekete is missing is that he assumes the FED will act within the law.
If they are, and I'm not holding my breath, then the lower rates and $ devaluation would be a bluff designed to suck physical FR notes into the economy.

The 64K$ question is "would you bet your own money that they will act within the law?"

Hey Don...wondered if you were lurking around or back on the boat for awhile. Good to have you back. So what is your assessment of things since last you were here...Northern Rock, Bernanke cut, NetBank, etc?

I'm trying to read the leaves for the 4th QTR this year and even though things have not fallen through the floor, there is still plenty of nervousness.

Yes, Don Sailorman was right on in his analysis of what was going to happen. Much more accurate than others on this site. He didn't downplay the seriousness of the situation but said that the Benny and the Feds would do whatever it takes to avoid a crash. The only option is to inflate our way out of this if at all possible.
I wish he was around to tell me what's next.

-Don

I don't think anyone is right yet. It's only just beginning. I think the jury is still out on whether the power of the Fed can do anything against the economic forces rolling toward us. They'll try, certainly. Whether it will work is a whole 'nother kettle of fish.

Yes, Yes...this is the correct answer!

Less than 6 weeks since the initial subprime/ABCP SHTF...FED "PANICS"...yes, panics...and starts buying MORTGAGES and still is in mass...to the tune of 22 BILLION on Friday alone.

This isn't over barely getting started. But, of course, everyone and anyone will do ANYTHING to stop this house of cards from collapsing.

But one thing is obvious from analysts, the confidence is NOT back yet. And, confidence is key.

Flushing the USD doesn't inspire confidence.

And good 'ol Benny is definitely flushing it...USD Index closed 77.69 on Friday. CAD is nearly 1.01(1.007).

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

Next support level appears to be 77. That doesn't inspire confidence either.

But, yes, they will try anything to keep the economy floating...just barely...recession is Guaranteed!

That link just blew my "firefox" completely out of the water. had to start all over, and as a concequince lost all the new post tags.

old hermit

"you can cure ignorance, but you can't educate stupitidy"

It is either Java or Dhtml/activex that loads thier graphs.

Java and some big byte commercial stuff, takes a fast connection.