DrumBeat: October 1, 2007


Kunstler: Two Clues for the Clueless

The gravest problem this nation faces, therefore, is the inability of the American public and its leaders to confront the fact that we can't continue to live the way we do -- and, by the way, when I say "leaders," I don't restrict myself to political leaders. Our failures of leadership are comprehensive, including leadership in my nominal sector, journalism. For two weeks in a row, the price of oil on the futures markets has closed above $80-a-barrel, and for these two weeks The New York Times Sunday Business Section has failed to run one story on the consequences of oil rising into this uncharted territory of high price. Are the Times editors on crack? Surely $80-plus oil will thunder through the American economy.

Australia onshore oil discovery at least 120 million barrels

Australian oil company Innamincka Petroleum Ltd. said Monday that drilling results show its Flax and Juniper discoveries in Australia's Cooper Basin together may be one of the country's largest onshore oil finds.

Results from its Flax East 1 well have confirmed the two fields are connected and point to "a substantial increase in the assessed inplace oil resource," the company said in a statement Monday to the Australian Securities Exchange.


Nigerian Leader Promises End to Niger Delta Conflict

Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua pledged on Monday, the country's independence day, to tackle the crisis in the volatile Niger Delta, which has seen up to 200 foreigners kidnapped since the start of last year.

The oil-rich Niger Delta is awash with militants who say they want a larger say in the way their region's prized resource is used. Yar'Adua's predecessor Olusegun Obasanjo was unable to quell the violent attacks against foreign oil companies.


Scrambling for Kazakh oil

International companies continue to jostle for position in the contest for access to Kazakhstan's diverse mineral deposits amid an ongoing dispute over the world's largest recent oil find.


Green campaign dents palm oil demand

A campaign by environment groups against palm oil is costing the product market share in Europe, a top Malaysian palm oil industry official said on Monday.


Slow, Steady Liquidation of the World Oil Industry

By 2011 or so, these companies, including Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc in the U.K., France's Total SA and ConocoPhillips in the U.S., will no longer be able to increase their production, says Charles Maxwell, an analyst at Weeden & Co. in Greenwich, Connecticut.

By 2014, their output will begin a long decline, says Maxwell, who has been involved in the industry for 50 years, mostly as an analyst. "They'll be in liquidation," he says.

The industry isn't finding new crude-oil reserves fast enough to keep up with world demand for gasoline and other fuels made from crude.


Peak Oil 10-20 Years Away, Claims World Energy Council

Global proved recoverable oil reserves stood at 1.215trillion barrels (160billion tonnes) at the end of 2005, according to the World Energy Council. It says in a new report that this is 117billion barrels (11billion tonnes) higher than at the end of 2002.

However, it acknowledges that Peak Oil may be just a few years off.


Strength Needs Energy

The real energy crisis we face today is much graver because it has ballooned into a manufacturing crisis. It is now undermining the very things that have made this country so great for so long — its economic prowess, its education system, its strong history of innovation and invention, and, last but certainly not least, its basic national-security and influence in the world.


Security Fears Keep Oil Prices at High Levels

OPEC is trying to limit the price rise to $80; its secretary general, Abdullah al-Badri, stated after the organization's recent ministerial meeting that "the price of $80 is high and is not supported by the foundations of the market." This means that OPEC is uncomfortable with this high price, and there is fear that the continuing price rise will lead to new record levels every week or so. This will produce a reduction, sooner or later, in world consumption of crude oil, and an increase in the use of alternative fuels, not to speak of the negative impact on the economies of the world, and especially those of the developing countries.


Stellar Performance with Astrophysicist at the Helm

Talisman has been in the North Sea for 11 years, and as far as Buckee is concerned, the strategic value of the province has not waned at all.

"The world consumes 30-plus billion barrels of oil a year, but is finding less than 10billion. This is unsustainable. I do believe in the Peak Oil theory. It's obvious, which means oil prices will move higher. It also means that a premium is placed on existing fields.

"In the North Sea, we have the infrastructure and we have lots of oil in place beneath. I believe we can keep on improving the recovery factor of such fields for quite a long time yet."


Saudi Aramco gets three bids for $8 bln Ras Tanura refinery

Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the world's largest oil company, has received three bids for the contract to help it build a $8-billion refinery in eastern Saudi Arabia, according to people familiar with the plans.


BP's Atlantis rig could be ready to pump early

The report said testing is believed to have started on the rig, known as Atlantis, fuelling speculation it could be up and running within weeks. BP previously said Atlantis would be producing by the end of the year.


BP's new Angola oilfield begins production

BP's new Plutonio oilfield in Angola started production this week with the first shipment expected in mid-November, trade sources said on Monday.


Deutsche Bank analyst downgrades ConocoPhillips to "Sell" from "Hold"

A Deutsche Bank analyst downgraded ConocoPhillips to "Sell" on Monday, saying the energy company is the most exposed to the two-month downturn that typically strikes in October.


Cowed, Myanmar border town longs to join protests

But trade has dried up and anger mounted with sky-rocketing fuel prices -- rises that sparked protests over the last few weeks in major cities and towns in Myanmar.

Shops in Tamu are open but largely empty, and food is increasingly scarce.

The town is almost deserted, with many homes shuttered. Soldiers are stationed in and around Tamu, police in plain clothes wander the streets carrying walkie-talkies.


Quebec slaps carbon tax on diesel fuel

Quebec is increasing the tax on diesel fuel sold in the province by 0.9 cents per litre beginning today as part of its plan to tackle greenhouse gas emissions.


Nuclear industry pushes for early approval of new plants by warning of bottlenecks

The government's plans to build up to 10 nuclear power plants in Britain over the next decade could be thwarted by a shortage of skilled project managers, industry executives have warned.

They have told ministers that the coming nuclear renaissance in Europe and in emerging economies such as Russia, China and India - driven by the need to combat global warming and reduce energy imports - could also constrain the delivery of key reactor components unless decisions are made swiftly and the planning process is speeded up.


D.C. region produces more carbon dioxide than many countries

The Washington region, with its crawling traffic and several coal-fired power plants, produces more carbon dioxide than several medium-size European countries, according to a new study of pollution.


Coal fired plants, a national Catch-22

About half of the nation's energy comes from coal-fired power plants.

They're the powerhouse of our power grid, but they're also a major source of the country's air pollution.


GM to make Volt electric car in 2010

General Motors plans to manufacture the Chevrolet Volt electric car in 2010 and will produce a Chevy version of its full-size crossover SUVs in 2011, according to a summary of the automaker's new contract with the United Auto Workers.


Weak dollar could prevent OPEC from new output hike: analysts

The weak US dollar is slashing the value of oil revenue for the biggest crude producers, leading analysts to predict that OPEC will not rush to hike output again despite tight world energy supplies.


How to Address Humanity's Global Crises? Challenge Corporate Power, Embrace True Democracy

The physicist, activist and author outlines the scope of the "triple threat" represented by the end of cheap oil, human-induced climate change, and resource scarcity.


The Shift To Alternative Fuels Is Moving Beyond Ethanol

October is the time of year when we traditionally begin to see fuels like natural gas and heating oil begin to rise and rise steadily.

Actually, they're already doing just that.

And with the subprime nightmare still unraveling and consumers being stretched to the gills, higher gas and oil prices may be the straw that breaks the Dow's back, again.


Human Behavior, Global Warming, and the Ubiquitous Plastic Bag

And the lesson for now pretty much seems to be that no matter how piddly the effort, no matter how small the bother, well, it’s too much bother.


What I Believe

I believe in peak oil and that we are now (or very soon will be) straining at the limits of production vs. consumption. I believe that much of the trouble in the world today is about securing oil reserves. Many young lives and much national treasure are being spent in the pursuit of oil. However, I also believe that if governments would get out of the way and let energy prices rise, the free market forces can solve the problem. Newer, lighter, safer, carbon fiber hybrid vehicles with efficient diesel/electric designs can go a long way towards the solution. Along with bio fuels and renewable energy and better designs we can move towards energy independence. There will be no single big solution but thousands of small ones that will add up greatly. We will still need oil but not nearly so much if we simply unleash our individual creative powers and let the free market work. The results can be inspiring.


Food shock as 'agflation' sees prices rise

IN THE 1970s it was "stagflation", the simultaneous combination of economic stagnation and high inflation. Now, in the noughties, we have "agflation" — price inflation of agricultural products, especially grains and related foodstuffs. Just last week, while announcing the Federal Government's aid package to drought-hit farmers, former deputy prime minister and Nationals leader John Anderson warned of a global food shock.


Bush struggles to stay relevant in climate debate

President George W. Bush, hosting major polluting nations last week, sought to convince skeptics that he wants to help shape the next global deal on climate change, despite his long history of shunning such efforts.

But with only 15 months left in office, his chances of becoming a major player in the debate over climate change are diminishing quickly, analysts and diplomats said.

Ah! The mendacity of governments is a wonder to behold:

Chancellor reconsiders savings pledge
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/01/cnsavi...

The Chancellor has staged an embarrassing climbdown by pledging to guarantee only the first £35,000 of savings held in British banks and building societies rather than the £100,000 he originally suggested...

...It was the paucity of the current guarantee – which fully protects only the first £2,000 of savings and 90pc of the next £33,000 – that prompted the queues of savers at Northern Rock branches when it emerged the struggling bank had been forced to call on the Bank of England for help...

...Yet the £35,000 guarantee that comes into effect today means only an extra £3,300 of savers' money is protected

If they cannot uphold their word at this early period in the financial crisis, then what are they going to be like when the full on chaos of global financial, climate and energy chaos hits?

This is a bad mistake.

Not only do people now know the government will not bail them out if a bank or building society is in trouble; they know that the word of government officials is even more worthless than they thought it was before. They weren't exactly falling over themselves to trust it then.

Net result is any suggestion that a financial institution is in trouble and you need to get you funds out immediately.

I’m gonna open a new account , I’m walking down the street and there is a Northern Rock at my left – and on the other side of the road there is a Bank-X – Q; Where do I go ?

You covert the cash to gold and silver, then split it into multiple parcels and hide it well around your home.

There were two other banks that took a beating around the same time the whole Northern Rock thing got started. I've been using the Google for a bit and I can't find their names and I'm not having much luck tracking down a good blog that covers British banking. This sort of thing won't happen here because we simply don't save but I recall some postings indicating the infection will be most visible in the U.K. and Spain ...

http://ml-implode.com had a link to this tidbit comparing UBS's troubles to Citigroup.

How big of a price? UBS is taking a $690 million loss and firing 1,500 workers due to the $3.4 billion writedown of the value of its MBSs(mortgage backed securities) -- but I think it's curious that it still has $19 billion of MBSs with which it is "comfortable."

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/01/why-ubss-ubs-pain-exceeds-citig...

Economic conditions alone would make a mess of that $19B in "assets", and this is before one factors in AGW and PO ...

Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley. It was the run on A&L shares on the Monday which persuaded the government to give their blanket assurance, I believe.

Someone on another forum reckon that they are only half as bad as Northern Rock, and so won't run into the same sort of finance troubles as NR for a few weeks,

Peter.

Alliance & Leicester, and Bradford & Bingley were the other two.

The initial promise of guaranteeing 100.000 pounds solved a first crack, but now that it's lowered again, Chancellor reconsiders savings pledge, who knows how people will react? They're looking for safety. 35.000 pounds does not spell safety, Northern Rock has many mortgages and pension holdings, which easily go beyond that number.

It's not realistic to think these three are the only UK banks in trouble, like NetBank will not be the last US victim.

Northern Rock, 11.42 am EDT:
LON:NRK 134.00 -45.20 (-25.22%)

Guess that set of guarantees didn't help much.

NetBank 11.58 am EDT
OTC:NTBK 0.04 -0.03 (-45.59%)

NetBank has officially filed for bankruptcy (protection).

It seems to me that one reason such a safeguard would be withdrawn, is that Brown knows that more banks are heading for trouble and he simply cannot afford to guarantee the money in all of them. Otherwise, why backdown when it would attract such bad publicity with a possible election in the offing? As mentioned above, doing this almost guarantees that there will be a run at the first rumour of trouble at any bank.

Assuming I go back to work this week (fingers crossed) I'd like to start banking in some fashion where I can use euros rather than dollars. I hear Everbank is an alternative to Netbank ... does anyone have an opinion on which bank will give me a cash card but let me store the funds in the euro? The $1,500 minimum for an Everbank account isn't such a stretch but I would probably shy away from anything much larger than that.

Actually, there's a connection here: NetBank folded after Everbank declined to purchase them. Letting them go down, and then buying assets, must have been cheaper.

EverBank to acquire some assets of failed NetBank

Less than two weeks after killing a deal to acquire NetBank, EverBank said it will acquire about $700 million worth of mortgage assets of the failed Internet bank.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of Thrift Supervision shuttered NetBank Sept. 28, at the same time giving its approval for ING Bank to assume NetBank's insured deposits.

On Sept. 17, EverBank pulled the plug on its planned acquisition of substantially all of NetBank. EverBank said only that it made the decision "after it became clear that NetBank would not be able to complete certain conditions required to close and receive regulatory approval."

I have a question for some of you who are certainly more economically intelligent than I. Citibank just bought out ABN AMRO's La Salle Mortgage group. What happens to those morgages (mine included)if Citibank goes belly-up (before it sells their mortgage group to someone else, that is)?

I don't understand all this slicing and dicing of morgages enough to even imagine an answer, but it sure does worry me.

Thanks for any answers.

Linda

You occasionally see stories about people who've been "lost" as mortgages change hands. You keep a copy of every single bit of paper you get, especially canceled checks, and if your payment destination goes missing you open a separate account and keep paying into that. These stories popped up every five years or so during "normal" times and I expect we'll see a lot more of it going forward. The Mexicans blow up pipelines ... here I'm waiting for the first infowar poisoning of a mortgage lender's data pool.

To me the more interesting question is what happens to my mortgage if the the dollar fails as a currency?

One scenario I see is a hyper-inflated dollar where I pay off my 180K mortgage with a single oz gold coin.

But what happens if the dollar no longer exists, and its not just a matter of conversion into some new US currency, but perhaps the US federal gov't no longer exists?

That is a LOT of what ifs! What if a giant rock hits the earth tomorrow, or there's a massive earthquake. Can't worry about every remote possibility.

http://static.grupthink.com/answer/1/15731e89fcb141b77d313502628a84ad

No, actually only one "if" - what if the federal gov't fails.

Ever read the classic story "When Worlds Collide?" or its follow-up "After Worlds Collide"? Great fun. And certainly an argument for not throwing away thought experiments about what might happen IF some highly unlikely event occurs.

http://cgi.ebay.com/HIGH-QUALITY-ROMAN-COINS-WITH-BONUS_W0QQitemZ3001564...

A systemic failure like that is a potential but I think its a long shot ... at least this year.

I think it'll be a case of where "everything we know is wrong". If one person loses their house its bad luck or bad judgement, if an entire nation starts losing their homes it becomes political. Political good for the consumer in some ways, but be sure there will be some protection for those mortgage holders as well - I don't think anyone gets a free house out of hyperinflation.

The dollar is a consensual hallucination. If we all snap out of it at once ... well ... interesting times strikes, eh?

I'm not worried about me being able to pay the mortgage. I'm worried about what they will try to hold onto if they are going belly-up like Countrywide did. CW was apparently trying to hold onto the tax/insurance escrow files and people were losing their houses because the taxes/insurance wasn't being paid.

Citimortagage takes an auto payment out of my checking acct. each month that includes escrow payments, "the mortgage payment" and an extra $50-100/mo. to go on the principle This lets the taxes and insurance be paid automatically and with the extra on principle we've been able to pay the morgage down by about $2000 per year.

I worry that if CM goes bankrupt they might pull a stunt like Countrywide did. Is that usual in that sort of situation?

Linda

What happens to those morgages (mine included) if Citibank goes belly-up?

That's when they break out the UAV predator drones and/or remote mind control weapons.

All right now, Matt. STOP that - LOL.

Linda

sorry, I just couldn't resist. =)

RE: How to Address Humanity's Global Crises?

Vandana Shiva about India shows how vast our problems have become. India without the water in it's rivers? Then, what will they do? Oh yes, we forget, they've got nukes. Resource wars, anyone?

E. Swanson

On a daily basis water is priority-1b, just next to air to breath which constitute 1-a.

On the sub-continent they should stop plundering the ridiculous ideas of bio-fuel perused by other “infinity-societies” – as of yesterday (my suggestion)

BTW the more info I get hold of on GW the more worried I'm getting. This GW-stuff may actually go really fast it seems – and the grand rivers in India are really without water many places in the end of the dry-season, not to forget the watertable in the Delhi region... oh my G...
This I know, b’cos I have lived there for some years… In resent years

My wife's family is originally from Santiago Chile. I had the opportunity to visit there last Dec/Jan. The thought had been in the back of my mind that, should things go badly here, we could go to Chile - we speak the language and have family there. But, when I was there, what I saw was essentially a desert with a couple of rivers running from the Andes to the ocean that supported their agriculture. What happens when A) the glaciers melt away and B) rainfall averages drop in the area?

The Great Lakes region (where I live currently) of the US has never looked better to me as a result of that trip.

A is definitely happening already, but B is up for debate. Might get drier, might get wetter. We have little ability to predict what happens now in our relatively stable system and with the ice caps & patches going its all a big fun house and no one knows where it will lead ...

Lake Superior hits record lows

Preliminary data show Superior's average water level in September dipped four centimetres beneath the previous low for that month reached in 1926, Cynthia Sellinger, deputy director of NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, said.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which uses a different measuring technique, calculated the September level at more than 10 centimetres below the previous record, said Scott Thieme, chief of hydraulics and hydrology for the Detroit district office.

It is the first time in 81 years that the biggest and deepest of the lakes has reached a new monthly low, Ms. Sellinger said. The Army recorded Superior as also setting a record by a 1.27 centimetres in August. But the NOAA lab had the lake at slightly above its record level then.

Either way, the lake has plummeted over the past year and has dipped beneath its long-term average level for a decade – the longest such period in its known history.

It's true, but it is still a big-ass lake. And then there's lake michigan, and huron, and erie, and ontario....

It seems a better bet than Chile for now.

good pt. even if the lake draws down somewhat it's good for a while at least.

the sunbelt from CA to Vegas to Phoenix-Mesa to GA is screwed. philly faces saltwater intrusion. eventually the snowpack drinking ecotopia from NorCal to Seattle is done too. move near the arctic?

get a rain barrel going at least!

maybe figure out a 0-watt desalination system (through sun/condensation)

peace.

Many young lives and much national treasure are being spent in the pursuit of oil. However, I also believe that if governments would get out of the way and let energy prices rise, the free market forces can solve the problem...

Ha! The gubbermint is pwned. There is no such thing as a free market. They are about to bountifully reap suffering, for they have liberally sowed stupidity. I will enjoy watching the show.

That was the line my brother used yesterday to host his Rosy Future Ahead thoughts, the free market and the bottom line. If there is no profit to be made no new technologies will show up. I guess I have Rose colored glasses too. But mine are in a box in the shed waiting to get sorted and sold at a yard sale in the future to get funds to go in a jar in my yard...

Why am I replying to my Own post?
Ah you might wonder.
Read on.

http://dan-ur.blogspot.com

Or here.

My brother in that talk up above said a few more things on topic. He works for NASA, in a round about way, Through two sub-contractors. His Main boss is a Lady of about 70 years of age that is still running her Female run Engineering company, her and a Female partner. Her husband is a Liquid Systems guy a PhD in it no less. If it is Liquid or if it acts like a Liquid he knows what it will do in a given anything, with anything and so forth and so on.

My brother has the degrees, Papers, the Breeding and the Know how to do just about anything he wants to do. Oh yeah I have the same Breeding. But I have no papers, Nothing much to show for myself. I am the Black Sheep of the family.

I have a job, it is going on right now. This very second. Opps, you just missed my paycheck fly by.

I help the Homeless in my county. Mostly though In Little Rock. They have a Rosy Future too. In about 2 hours and 10 minutes a fellow and I don't know who he is, will unlock a door to a trailer and walk in turn the lights on and feed anyone that is willing to take any of the food offered. usually there is donuts, boiled eggs in the shell, and juice , water and sometimes coffee. Sometimes there is more take away packaged fare, but not always. These fellows the ones serving are not all Christians, I have seen Hindu and I think a Muslim once or twice, I am not always there, but if I need to find someone. I go there. Or I go to the Noon day feeding station at the StewPot. 8th and Scott. Old Stone church, Up stairs, always Soup/Stew or chili, unless they run out. Donuts till they run out, 2 at a time first run. Bread on every table. And 2 side dishes. Anyone is invited, homeless or not, it is free, you only have to show up. The Mayor of Little Rock did one day a few weeks ago. I was meaning to ask him when he is due for re-election, I am thinking about running against him. I figure I'd shoot for the moon first then if that failed I would for the bread lines.

Think about this those of you reading this post.

We here are talking about the END of the WORLD as we KNOW it.

These guys and gals I hang around could care less.
They are homeless.

ARE you Homeless? Will you be soon? If you fear the future. Come on over to my neck of the woods. Seek me out.
I carry a Big stick, Not one of them call me Teddy, unless you meet a few gals I know, they think I AM a bear, big and cuddly.

I have been called, Moses, OX, Charles, Darling, dear, baby, hun, hunny, and a few names I would rather not type to you.

Cops know me as the crazy guy that keeps getting them called to push me out of somewhere, I have been arrested, get this on this past anniversary of 9-11, Yes on Sept 11th 2007 I was in not one cop car but TWO. First time without hangcuffs the second time with them on. Seems you can't just walk out of the ER when they cops take you there the first time. They send Cops out to find you. I was car less. My van was in a wreck. with me driving. To many cops know me as the crazy guy it seems.

Be careful what you plan for, be more careful who you trust, be even more careful what you read, who you tell and why you tell them. I know.

I work with some of the biggest liars on the planet.

Cops, mayors, homeless, business owners, and pastors, sinners all.

Charles Edward Owens Junior
ceojr1963@yahoo.com
Write in candidate for President of the USA in 2008

For me right then on that day in that booth, I am your only hope for change. I belong to the Free Right Now party.

We miss your late night posts Bob Shaw, best hopes for a peaceful life and get a new female, if you need help I might know a few willing to listen souls.

-15% Less Transportation Oil Use by 2025

A single data point of many from the first run of my scenario on the Millennium Institute T21 model. Used ASPO oil supply predictions.

The savings were significantly reduced by two negative feedback items. GDP was greater (+2.8% from memory) under my scenario vs. BAU and the added GDP was in the more oil intensive areas of the economy. And oil prices were lower, which also added to oil consumption.

More later,

Alan

This was the big news on CNN this morning:

Citigroup warns of huge subprime hit

Citigroup warned Monday its third-quarter earnings are likely to decline 60 percent, as it takes more than $3 billion in writedowns for securities backed by underperforming mortgages and loans tied to corporate buyouts.

But, they will still make a profit.

Rick

They pull money out of their a$$. Pretty hard to lose money when you can do that. Our monetary system sucks.

And while banks stocks are tanking:

10.25 am EDT

Dow 14,000.24 +104.61 (0.75%)

Yeah, funny. Money, unlike oil, is infinite.

Citigroup issues earnings warning, and is one of the biggest gainers...

Party like it's 1929

Dow closes at record high

Stocks surged on Monday, sending the Dow to a record close on the first trading day of the fourth quarter, as investors bet that Wall Street may have seen the worst of the credit squeeze after three global banks detailed expected losses from the crisis.

The surge lifted the Nasdaq to its highest level in more than six and a half years as investors snapped up shares of technology bellwethers such as Apple Inc. and Intel Corp.

Citigroup Inc warned that its third-quarter profit would fall by 60 percent, but investors took comfort after its chief executive, Charles Prince, said the largest U.S. bank would "return to a normal earnings environment in the fourth quarter." Its shares were among the biggest gainers on both the Dow and the S&P 500, rising 2.3 percent to $47.72.