DrumBeat: October 14, 2007
Posted by Leanan on October 14, 2007 - 9:28am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Global warming an urgent problem
Seven years ago scientists thought global warming might cause the North Pole arctic ice sheet to completely melt by the end of this century. But this September the Arctic summer sea ice shrank to more than 20 percent below the previous record low.“The reason so much (of the Arctic ice) went suddenly is that it is hitting a tipping point that we have been warning about for the past few years,” said James Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
In the last six months estimates of when the North Pole ice cap will completely melt have been revised to 2023.
At least one climate scientist, Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School, projects a blue, ice-free Arctic Ocean in summers by 2013, an event that has never occurred before, as long as human beings have inhabited our planet.
In the last year estimates of when climate change will cause widespread famine have been revised to 2020.
As already noted, many times, the media finds it is not ‘politically correct’ to explain high prices as due to oil – very simply – depleting and running out. So they prefer to cite storms, technical problems, refinery accidents, rebellion and wars in Nigeria, Chad and Sudan, the Iraq war, al Qaida, Vladimir Putin and the ‘anti western Kremlin’ now menacing pipeline routes in Georgia, the Kazakhs or Venezuelans applying ‘resource nationalism’ to their oil reserves and demanding higher taxes and shares of profits, the greedy and wasteful Chinese importing too much oil, the Indians doing the same, very hot weather (or very cold weather), and why not earthquakes ? – anything will do as long as NO mention of Peak Oil is made. It is however politically OK to cite declining or shrinking inventories as an explanation of why oil prices are high.
Upside to rising price of the black stuff
Spiralling oil prices are a necessary inconvenience, says visiting American ecologist Richard Heinberg, as the world faces a double-headed monster of climate change and sinking fossil fuel reserves.
Production costs for farmers reaching new heights
When commodity prices drop, there will be no commensurate decline in production input costs, setting the stage for an agricultural inflation trap like the one that created havoc in rural America through the 1980s....The key factor is the accumulative cost of transportation in all sectors - that means the price of diesel fuel.
Pickup dealers haul in sales — but can they last?
With gasoline prices hovering near $3 a gallon and the housing market in a slump, large pickup sales should be suffocating.Instead, a price war among the major players in the sector is boosting sales and market share for gas-thirsty vehicles such as the Toyota Tundra, Chevrolet Silverado and Dodge Ram.
Erosion of Caribbean food security
A fundamental change is taking place in the global role of agriculture.Since prehistory, food has only been cultivated for human consumption or as feed for livestock; but lately, agriculture in developed and developing nations has been transformed, as cereals are being grown for conversion into fuel.
Are you happy with the recent big increase in food prices? How about the big jump in gasoline prices? Do you enjoy being dependent on foreign oil? And finally, do you like seeing millions of acres of woodland and wildlife habitat being destroyed to make room for more corn production? The tragedy is none of it was or is necessary.
Nuclear reactors for sale: France vies for big stake in industry revival
More than two decades after Chernobyl shook the world's faith in nuclear power, France is vying to lead a worldwide revival of the nuclear industry as worries about global warming and rising energy prices have brought fission back in fashion.
Centrica considers seeking judicial review of green coal plant decision
Centrica PLC is considering calling for a judicial review to overturn a government decision which excludes most energy companies from the contest to build the world's first green coal plant, The Observer reported citing industry sources.
Refiners feel oil prices' sting
The recent surge in crude oil prices above $80 a barrel came at a bad time for U.S. refiners, as profit warnings showed this week from some of the nation's largest oil refiners.Higher oil prices not only drove up the costs of making gasoline and other fuels, they came during a period of weaker demand for those fuels, when refiners' ability to pass on added costs was limited, analysts said.
Houston CEO takes message to auto industry
ConocoPhillips head James Mulva recently suggested the United States consider placing a surcharge on less fuel-efficient vehicles while promoting the purchase of more efficient models with rebates.Now that in it itself probably doesn't seem all that shocking, but the fact that the Houston CEO made that speech before Detroit business leaders - gulp.
Coal-to-fuel plants considered, but few want to be first in line
Developers of a coal-to-fuel plant in western North Dakota say more than a dozen similar plants are planned in the U.S. - though no one wants to be the first to build one.
The "Great Game" Enters the Mediterranean: Gas, Oil, War, and Geo-Politics
The haunting spectre of a major war hangs over the Middle East, but war is not written in stone. A Eurasian-based counter-alliance, built around the nucleus of a Chinese-Russian-Iranian coalition also makes an Anglo-American war against Iran an unpalatable option that could turn the globe inside-out.
Tech Declared Both Culprit, Savior in Climate Change
Climate change is both a large-scale crisis and a huge opportunity, and IT has a role in both, industry executives said at a panel discussion last week.
School districts struggle to reduce transportation bill
The problem, many school administrators say, is that they've already squeezed the inefficiencies out of their departments. With rising fuel prices and insurance costs, the only way they'll be able to save money is to cut bus service. That could mean longer bus rides, longer walks to bus stops or school, and fewer extracurricular bus trips, they predict.
Richard Heinberg's Museletter: Powerdown Revisited/As the World Burns
In my book Powerdown: Options and actions for a Post Carbon World, I outlined four scenarios for the oil-constrained future: Last One Standing (a fascistic battle for the world’s remaining resources), Powerdown (government-led radical proactive conversion to energy frugality), Waiting for the Magic Elixir (denial of the problem until it’s too late for proactive responses), and Building Lifeboats (small communities coming together to build a survivable, sustainable future for themselves and, ultimately, for the rest of humanity). I closed the book by suggesting that, while the current trajectory is toward the first and third options, we should work on the second and fourth because these offer the greatest hope.After a few years of further thought, it seems to me that my description of these options could stand some modification. I would now say that our future options consist of three broad scenarios.
Not "Peak Oil", But Lots More Oil
The fact is that there are billions more barrels to be found in the world, whether it’s in the Middle East, Africa, Russia, Venezuela, and much of the yet to be geologically researched map of the world.That bit of knowledge, however, rarely makes it into the mainstream media that can be depended upon to give lots of coverage to the “Peak Oil” crowd that has been predicting we will run out of oil any day now. A former chairman of Shell made news in late September when he warned the price of oil could hit $150 a barrel “with oil production peaking within the next 20 years.” You had to read further on in the article, published in London’s The Independent on September 16 to learn that he also said “I don’t know whether there is going to be a peak in world production….”
Thailand in search for energy supply from neighbouring countries
Even with capacity of nearly 370 million cubic feet per day, the massive Arthit project will not be able to supply power-hungry Thailand, which is already looking further afield to meet demand.
Amid an Oil Boom, Poverty Persists (slideshow)
This year, Angola joined the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumping out 1.5 million barrels a day, more than any other African country except Nigeria.
Food set to become the next big global news story
AT the beginning of the summer, the National Farmers' Union of Canada put out a press release that included the headline Global food crisis emerging.The release is scary reading. Based on early predictions by the United States Department of Agriculture on world grain supply and demand for the 2007-08 crop year, the NFU's director of research, Darrin Qualman, broadcasts a dire warning that "we are in the opening phase of an intensifying food shortage."
Qualman means a worldwide shortage.
Eating roo could cut gas emissions
"SKIPPY" could soon be on the menu for the climate change-conscious if they take note of a report showing a switch from beef to kangaroo could help cut greenhouse gases.
Amazon tribe hits back at green 'colonialism'
It's one of the most fashionable ideas to save the planet from global warming: buying up tropical rainforest to save it from destruction. Gordon Brown has even appointed the millionaire founder of one such charity, Johan Eliasch, as his special adviser on deforestation.But like all big ideas it is controversial, and this week a leading Amazonian campaigner will visit Britain to protest that this latest trend is linked to a health and social crisis among indigenous people, including sickness, depression, suicide, obesity and drug addiction.
Keeping the next Katrina at bay
A hurricane can release energy equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb every 20 minutes, which means that no amount of dike building will help a coastal city in its path. And while this year has been relatively tame (so far), scientists believe that the future will look a lot like 2005, when there were a record 15 whirlwinds. The culprit: global warming, which is increasing the supply of warm water at the surface of the ocean that acts as fuel for hurricanes as it evaporates into their swirling vortex.Faced with the prospect of reliving Katrina on a yearly basis, our options seem to be either fine-tuning evacuation plans, or trying to weaken or divert storms while they are still at sea. Scientists have been considering the latter challenge for at least half a century with no success - but according to How To Stop a Hurricane, a documentary airing on CBC this week, the necessary technology and forecasting power are now making the prospect conceivable. Toronto-based director Robin Benger evaluated more than 30 hurricane-busting ideas being developed around the world and chose seven he thinks could have the right stuff.
Analysts Find Israel Struck a Nuclear Project Inside Syria
Israel’s air attack on Syria last month was directed against a site that Israeli and American intelligence analysts judged was a partly constructed nuclear reactor, apparently modeled on one North Korea has used to create its stockpile of nuclear weapons fuel, according to American and foreign officials with access to the intelligence reports.The description of the target addresses one of the central mysteries surrounding the Sept. 6 attack, and suggests that Israel carried out the raid to demonstrate its determination to snuff out even a nascent nuclear project in a neighboring state. The Bush administration was divided at the time about the wisdom of Israel’s strike, American officials said, and some senior policy makers still regard the attack as premature.
Air Force continues success in reducing energy impact
Every October, the Air Force, along with the rest of the federal government, recognizes Energy Awareness Month. Our theme this year echoes our energy vision: "Making energy a consideration in all we do."This vision serves as the foundation of our energy strategy:
● Reduce demand by increasing our energy efficiency and reducing our energy consumption
● Increase supply by researching, testing and certifying new technologies
● Investigating cutting edge uses of renewable and conventional sources of energy in order to create new domestic sources of supply;
● Change the culture to ensure energy is a consideration in all we do.
As Logging Fades, Rich Carve Up Open Land in West
William P. Foley II pointed to the mountain. Owns it, mostly. A timber company began logging in view of his front yard a few years back. He thought they were cutting too much, so he bought the land.Mr. Foley belongs to a new wave of investors and landowners across the West who are snapping up open spaces as private playgrounds on the borders of national parks and national forests.
The Caspian Sea region, including the Sea and the states surrounding it, is important to world energy markets because of its potential to become a major oil and natural gas exporter over the next decade.
Go nuclear for a third industrial revolution, says EC
We are on the brink of the "third industrial revolution", according to José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission - who believes it means nations may have to embrace nuclear power.
Oil is hovering above $80 a barrel. Gas has been bouncing between $2.50 and $4 a gallon for the past two years. At $3.33 per gallon, it costs $100 to fill the tank of a Hummer H2—to carry the driver 350 miles. Fueling up even a Volkswagen Rabbit at the same pump will cost almost $50. Surely, you'd think, there must be a better means of keeping our vehicles running than with pricey oil drawn out of hostile and distant places.It is in this context of Western anticipation of the Next Big Energy Thing that Iain Carson and Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, correspondents for The Economist, have written Zoom: The Global Race to Fuel the Car of the Future. What the authors describe, though, is not so much a race as inertia on the part of the auto and oil industries, petroleum-rich countries, politicians, environmentalists, and even consumers over what new energy sources will emerge as our primary fuels for autos. Overall, the book is an articulate and well-referenced survey that could have used more detail on the men and women trying to solve the West's, and increasingly the developing world's, addiction to oil.
South Africa: The Poor Fly Under the Solar Water Heating Radar
- Earlier this year, IPS reported that the South African coastal city of Cape Town was debating a "first of a kind" bylaw that would make solar water heating compulsory for relatively costly new buildings, and certain renovations. This got us thinking: what of solar water heating for less expensive structures -- especially homes being built under the country's extensive low cost housing programme...Are any initiatives on the drawing board in this regard?
In China, a Lake’s Champion Imperils Himself
Pollution has reached epidemic proportions in China, in part because the ruling Communist Party still treats environmental advocates as bigger threats than the degradation of air, water and soil that prompts them to speak out.
How Malawi went from a nation of famine to a nation of feast
Over the past couple of years, Malawi has broken with an orthodoxy long advocated by Canada and other Western donor nations: The impoverished country has gone back to subsidizing poor farmers. Condemned by donors as an impediment to the development of a sustainable agricultural sector, the subsidies have been a raging success."What is different [this year] is the access to inputs," explained Patrick Kabambe, permanent secretary in the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security. "People are so poor they use recycled seed and no fertilizer. They can't meet their needs that way and they grow no surplus. People sink deeper and deeper into poverty. It's a vicious cycle. We had to do something."
All about oil: read about it in new book
How can the US free itself from our oil addiction? David Sandalow in his new book, "Freedom from Oil: How the next President can end the United States' oil addiction" attempts to address this question.
Iraq’s ex-oil chief accuses Kurds of suspect deal with US firm
An Iraqi oil minister under former dictator Saddam Hussein accused the Kurdistan Regional Government of awarding an oil contract last month to a US company for areas outside its territorial control.
The Impact of Oil Contracts for the Government of Iraqi Kurdistan
Unfortunately, these problems and difference in opinion were expected ever since the announcement of the Iraqi Constitution and its vague provisions regarding the prerogatives of the Iraqi Oil Ministry, the regions and the provinces in managing the country's petrochemical resources. The disputes we see today are a result of the manner and method in which the constitutional provisions on the oil sector and oil laws were drafted, resulting in disagreements in viewpoints between the oil minister and the Kurdistan regional government, or between prominent Iraqi oil experts and the Kurdistan government, and we are still at the beginning of the process. There is considerable fear that the obstacles to a natural development of the oil and gas sector in Iraq may grow larger, due to these vague legal arrangements. There is fear that these disputes are a bad sign for Iraq's most important economic sector, as if the security problems weren't enough already to obstruct the rise of a modern oil sector. Complicated legal problems have been invented, and the examples we have today are a telling sign of this.
China orders halt to refinery project of Taiwan's Formosa Plastics
Formosa Plastics Corp's proposed refinery project in Ningbo, in eastern China's Zhejiang province, has been ordered halted by Chinese authorities, while a proposed ethylene plant with capacity of 1.2 mln tons will now be controlled by China National Petroleum Corp instead of Formosa, the Economic Observer reported.
BP chief 'to turn round oil giant in three years'
Tony Hayward, the new chief executive of BP, has pledged to turn around the oil giant's fortune in the next two to three years. In an interview this weekend, Hayward told The Sunday Telegraph that "we have been on the downward spiral for three or four years and it will take us two or three years to come back up".
Look who's in denial about global warming now
In light of all this, to continue to blame a handful of frankly pathetic global warming deniers for lack of federal action on global warming is, in itself, a kind of denial.
Peak Moment for Peak Oil in Queensland
Until recently the peak oil debate in Australia has been largely confined to internet forums such as Webdiary. Those who have dared elsewhere make the obvious point that production of the finite resource upon which our entire economy is based will soon peak and decline, have usually been labeled as doomsayers, conspiracy theorists, socialists or rabid greenies. That situation has changed dramatically in recent weeks with the release of the Queensland Government’s long-awaited Oil Vulnerability Taskforce Report. World oil production is peaking – it’s official, at least here in Queensland.
What is driving oil prices so high?
A more controversial concern is the so-called "peak oil" theory: the idea that the world has reached the natural limits of oil exploitation, and that there is little more to be found in the ground whatever the price.Although many in the business dismiss the concept, energy planners in several countries are nonetheless beginning to take it into account.
Running on empty - Oil is depleting but does anybody care?
“The debate is over. This is real,” said Adam Asquith, Ph.D., a local farmer and biologist who shared information with the audience on the urgency of the issues surrounding global oil depletion.
India: Thermal stations face shortage of coal stocks
A serious coal shortage situation is brewing at a number of major thermal power stations across the country, with the coal stock position in 20 stations — total installed capacity of 24,420 MW — now being termed as “critical” since coal stocks in these plants are expected to last less than seven days.
A powerful mix: Future of North Dakota energy looks bright
No other state is so well stocked with wind, coal, oil, water, biomass crops, and even hydrogen technology. It's almost an embarrassment of resources, enough to stir up a rich and powerful stew.
'Climate Year' heads for uncertain end
It's October and global warming campaigner Al Gore has won the Nobel Peace Prize. In November the U.N.'s climate scientists issue a capstone report on where the planet is headed. And in December envoys of almost 200 nations gather in Bali, Indonesia, hoping for action to head off the worst of climate change.But because of something that happened in September, their chances look slim.
Gore Nobel win shows up Bush: US press
US newspapers Saturday hailed Al Gore's Nobel Peace Prize for his fight against climate change, saying it showed up failings of President George W. Bush in the seven years since he beat Gore to the White House.
European cities tackling climate change
VAXJO, Sweden - When this quiet city in southern Sweden decided in 1996 to wean itself off fossil fuels, most people doubted the ambitious goal would have any impact beyond the town limits. A few melting glaciers later, Vaxjo is attracting a green pilgrimage of politicians, scientists and business leaders from as far afield as the United States and North Korea seeking inspiration from a city program that has allowed it to cut CO2 emissions 30 percent since 1993.
A new Energy and Environment Round-Up by ilargi has been published at TOD:Canada.
Thought I would take a look at the IPPC report but got lost in a myriad of likelys How many likelys does it take to make a certainty anyway? Page 9 is a quite likely a page that even goes so far as a couple of future virtual certainties ,very interesting.
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
We ran the entire Cold War on speculation, much of it erroneous. But in truth the message of the Cold War was: we will spend trillions rather than risk a 10% chance that the Commies have the power to enslave us. As a taxpayer, you are not entitled to a refund.
Guess it's different when the enemy doesn't have a (wrong-colored) face, or it's looking back from our own mirrors.
The likelyhood of anything happening in the Government of the USA to solve global warming is about Zero. But the "Likely"-ness of Global Chaos getting worse before it gets better is about 100%.
I love to pick bones with people who use words the wrong way, but then again I am the first to do that so I shouldn't pick the dust mote out of your eye before I get the stick out of mine.
Today a child broke my walking stick. It is about 12 inches shorter than it was yesterday. I is a cane now. I knew sooner or later it would break at the weak point. Wood under stress does that a lot. Was I mad at the kids, no. Did my aditude surprise the kids, Yes. People just can't handle someone that does not worry about anything. I do a Lot of praying though.
Climate chaos is one of the big shakers in the present times and the future times. Peak Oil Production could be solved by the time the population declines and the weather settles down. But getting to the oil that is left will be labor intensive still, or it might even be impossible to use EROEI wise.
God Grant you peace.
God Grant you Love of your fellow man.
God Grant you Faith and Trust.
Write in Candidate for President 2008.
Free Right Now party. No donations.
Term limits for congress, Min wage for them too
Charles Edward Owens Jr.
I am sure Leanan posted this link a couple of days ago because she never misses anything this good. However I did miss it and I would like to comment. Why Global Warming and Peak Oil are Irreverent
Amory Lovins says we peak oilers are stupid. But I think Lovins is the stupid one. Note: One politically correct goody two shoes took me to task awhile back for calling a man an idiot. So in the interest of political correctness I will not call this blooming idiot a blooming idiot. No, I will instead just call him stupid, the same term Lovins used when referring to us.
He says peak oil and global warming does not matter because the marketplace will fix everything. The marketplace will always wind up with black ink on the bottom line and that’s all that matters.
So not to worry, the marketplace will take care of peak oil. Competitive sources of energy will rise magically from the marketplace. Cheaper energy will replace gasoline. You know, like hydrogen or ethanol.
We have all heard that one before. But Lovins goes even further and says the marketplace will even fix the global warming problem.
China, and the rest of the world will stop pouring carbon dioxide and other pollutants into the atmosphere because they will make more money if they stop. The magic marketplace will fix everything.
Well hell, if the marketplace will fix all our global warming and declining energy problems, then why should we doubt that it will also fix all our other environmental problems? The marketplace will cause falling water tables to rise again. It will replenish dried up rivers. It will replace the disappearing rainforest. The dried up Aral Sea will rise to its former glory and the fish will return. Fishermen will stop overfishing the sea because they will make more money if they stop fishing. And the marketplace will fix the population problem.
Sleep well tonight and don’t worry about anything. The magic marketplace will solve all our environmental problems.
Ron Patterson
Severides Law ... "The leading cause of problems is solutions."
Thanks for the consideration, Ron.
I still stand by that principle, it's better in my view to conduct the discussion in polite terms, not least of all since, as Leanan has remarked more than once, the use of the blander options available in our vocabulary can easily lead to the site, and the thread, being banned by numerous kinds of filters, especially those installed by educational institutions. Also, it invites other posters to use the same sort of language, and before you know it, you've created a swearing contest.
Besides, as we both know, idi*t is a diagnostic medical term, and wrongly applied to many people who are not subject to its true meaning, in any real sense. We should all be well capable of venting our assessments of people and policies, without regressing into these terms. If only since you invite those same terms being applied to you by other posters.
Which in no way means, make no mistake, that I don't fully agree with the spirit, the general gist if you will, of your assessment of Mr. Lovins.
I don't think Lovins is stupid...he's just wrong. Even smart people can be wrong. Or at least that's what I keep telling myself. :)
If you said "even smart people can be stupid", I'd agree with you even more. It's one thing to be wrong. It's another to continue being wrong in the face of so much evidence against you. Keeping at something that continues to show itself to be wrong is stupid behavior, and thus even smart people can be stupid. Sometimes they are even more effectively stupid than stupid people.
OK gentle people, how about: fool, fools, foolish?
Doesn't necessarily imply limitations on education nor I. Q.
No shortage of examples available.
Now, isn't that nicer?
I don't know enough about the details of Lovins' agenda to say if he is stupid, wrong or malicious, though I suspect everyone who claims they're going to come through this mess as rich as they are now.
However, many narrowly intelligent people have been wrong about the global system when it was refined to a perverse extreme:
the 1929 crisis, where intelligent people could not imagine that capital could vanish faster than brutal deflation could exploit it.
the 1914 crisis, where intelligent people assumed that elected governments would be curbed by the economic elite recognizing that war wasn't in its long-term interest.
I guess aspects of both these crises are apparent in the current crisis. No one in a position of influence in 2000, or even 2004, was saying that these things could happen again.
Super390, what elected governments are you refering to? Russia, Austria, Germany, England? True, no dictator wanted WW1, but on the other hand none of the imperial families, most related by blood, were willing to 'look weak on defense', a phrase that should make us examine the current crop of D and R presidential hopefulls. Now we have an executive branch that has grabbed all the power and a legislative branch that has abdicated its responsibilities and powers...So, we are basically in the same state that Europe was just prior to WW1...And, with a supposedly 'elected' government. It doesnt seem to matter, does it? As Einstein so aptly put it... 'I dont know how WW3 will be fought, but WW4 will be fought with stones and clubs.'... (forgive me for posting this twice but I believe it is important for all to read and comprehend what war with Iran will mean. If we attack Iran, the world will cease to resemble anything that we recognize.)
On War #234
September 25, 2007
http://www.defense-and-society.org/lind/lind_archive.htm
'I don't think it possible for any historian to visit the Baltic countries or the rest of Central Europe and not reflect on the catastrophes World War I brought for that part of the world. Communism, World War II, National Socialism, the extinction of some communities and the expulsion of others, wholesale alteration of national boundaries, all these and more flowed from the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand on June 28, 1914. One pebble touched off an avalanche.'
'It did so because it occurred, not as an isolated incident, but as one more in a series of crises that rocked Europe in its last ten years of peace, 1904-1914. Each of those crises had the potential to touch off a general European war, and each further de-stabilized the region, making the next incident all the more dangerous. 1905-06 witnessed the First Moroccan Crisis, when the German Foreign Office (whose motto, after Bismarck, might well be, "Clowns unto ages of ages") compelled a very reluctant Kaiser Wilhelm II to land at Tangier as a challenge to France. 1908 brought the Bosnian Annexation Crisis, where Austria humiliated Russia and left her anxious for revenge. Then came the Second Moroccan Crisis of 1911, the Tripolitan War of 1911-1912 (a war Italy actually won, against the tottering Ottoman Empire) and the Balkan Wars of 1912-13. By 1914, it had become a question more of which crisis would finally set all Europe ablaze than of whether peace would endure. This was true despite the fact that, in the abstract, no major European state wanted war.
If this downward spiral of events in Europe reminds us of the Middle East today, it should. There too we see a series of crises, each holding the potential of kicking off a much larger war. There are almost too many to list: the war in Iraq, the U.S. versus Iran, Israel vs. Syria, the U.S. vs. Syria, Syria vs. Lebanon, Turkey vs. Kurdistan, the war in Afghanistan, the de-stabilization of Pakistan, Hamas, Hezbollah, al Qaeda, and the permanent crisis of Israel vs. the Palestinians. Each is a tick of the bomb, bringing us closer and closer to the explosion no one wants, no one outside the neo-con cabal and Likud, anyway.'
I believe neither wrong nor stupid. Just brutally cynical. Of course the market will fix everything-- but not to everyone's advantage.
Soon, the marketplace will be too crowded, by about 2billion people, and that surplus will somehow have to be gotten out of the way. Myanmar and Sudan and India are showing us the way.
What I am having a hard time with is the notion that the only alternative to chaos may be command. Either way, the concept of "freedom" may be so 20th century.
I'm thinking that, too. Reading Heinberg's latest...I don't really see any difference between his "Feudal Fascism" and "Eco-Deal" scenarios. Why is putting to people to work on farms "fascism" while putting people to work on streetcars an "eco-deal"? Maybe he sees differing degrees of coercion, but practically speaking, if the alternative is starving, it's not really a choice. And there will have to be "law and order" in the Eco-Deal world, too. What point is there in building streetcars if people rip them to pieces to sell the scrap as fast as they are built?
I also think he misses the biggest drawback of the "Bottoms up" (grassroots) scenario. It's not that local governments don't have the infrastructure to provide for their citizens. That may be true, but it's not the biggest problem. The biggest problem is the Tragedy of the Commons, played out on a national or global scale. This is why Jared Diamond hinted in Collapse that strong central government was going to be necessary.
We have already seen hints of this. Coal burned in the Midwest causes acid rain in New England. The benefits of coal-burning go to Ohio, the drawbacks to Massachusetts, so what incentive does Ohio have to cut back or spend money cleaning up their coal plants?
It doesn't take very close reading of Tragedy of the Commons to see where Garrett Hardin is coming from. The only solution he sees is population control and strong central government.
It is a sort of Spenglerian fantasy, perhaps, but freedom and "capitalism" seem most adapted to rapidly taking control of an entirely new situation (Europe after the Black Plague, North America, Australia, etc.) Within a few hundred years at most, that freedom has to be contained -- and presto, an aristocracy and royal family appears. They overreach, there is chaos again (Myanmar?) and perhaps from the chaos emerges a new sort of freedom.
Or maybe not. In any case, history suggests that oil is only a multiplier of the natural human energy. Plenty of creation and destruction occurred long before anyone thought of iron, let alone automobiles and industrial machinery.
In my cynical view the benefits accrue to New York through the Stock Market. Is Ohio better off the Massachusetts or New York? If I ran Ohio I would take off all the scrubbers until Free Trade Acts included Labor and Environmental Standards. We need the edge. Besides Cancer is a consequence of an industrial society. Nature's way of clearing out the genetic deficiencies as the world progresses :)
About Amory Lovins.
I attended a weeklong set of lectures he gave at Stanford this year, and find him neither idiot nor rogue. Doesn't mean he's right, though.
Money probably figures very little into his motivation. At his age and with his success, he is more concerned with making his mark on history. He really does believe that efficiency is the cure to humanity's problems.
Like most people who hear him speak, I was bowled over. I think he's probably in the genius category. Because he's been at this for decades, he has a highly developed spiel with graphs, statistics and colorful examples. I think he's absolutely right about the desirability of efficiency via technological innovation. He's also found an audience that wants to hear his message: engineers and tech savvy leaders from government, corporations and the military.
The claim that "peak oil and global warming are irrelevant" is probably addressed to these leaders, who do not want to hear about powerdown and the end of economic growth.
More interesting than his prepared talks are his off-the-cuff remarks and answers to questions. When he's not giving his pitch, he is more nuanced and thoughtful.
The basic problem with the Lovins is that like a lot of smart people, he gets so wound up in his approach that he can't recognize its limitations. He is very skillful at explaining away discrepancies. For example, he dismisses Jevon's Paradox ("as technological improvements increase the efficiency with which a resource is used, total consumption of that resource may increase").
Similarly, he dismisses other approaches such as conservation, grassroots efforts and politics.
Most critically, he overstates the potential of top-down innovation when faced with the urgent problems of peak oil and climate change. He has been preaching the same gospel for many years, and the world is still going in the same direction.
Bart
Energy Bulletin
I used to think of Lovins as a great inspiration. I saw him speak in the 1970's, when he uttered such gems as "using nuclear energy to make consumer electricity is like cutting butter with a chainsaw". Now he seems to think that business as usual can be maintained with somewhat better mileage, and so forth.
I don't know where he is coming from, but I think he is dead wrong.
So not an "idiot". Perhaps "self-centered, over-confident, narrowly-focused ignoramus" would work.
i'd been wondering about the guy's motives for awhile until i saw an article that described the big money consulting he does. as i can attest, there's no coin in telling people we're screwed.
too true.
I'm starting to think the Nobel Prize Committee really isn't gonna call....
If you have not seen this already,
Heading out may care to look at it... The hobbits and the elves will recoil in horror...
Though I want coal until we can ramp up nukes (about 43 should do it..)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/science/article2631117.ece
From The Sunday Times. By Richard Girling
October 14, 2007
Black to the future
Forget about wind farms and nuclear power stations. The answer to Britain’s looming energy crisis could be cheap, plentiful and planet-friendly coal
At 16 minutes after midday on October 17, 1956, at Calder Hall in Cumberland, the Queen pulled a lever and declared open the world’s first nuclear power station. In a high wind that crackled the pages of her script, she spoke of the “limitless opportunities which providence has given us”, and predicted that the peaceful application of nuclear power would be “among the greatest of our contributions to human welfare”. When the cheering died down, men with watch chains spoke of “epoch-making” events, and “energy too cheap to meter”.
Fifty-nine years later, in 2015, someone in the UK will flick a switch and nothing will happen. Eight years from now, the country will have only a fraction of the power it needs. Towns and cities blank out as the National Grid fizzles and dies. Pensioners die of cold, then putrefy in unchilled mortuaries. The only light comes from families burning their furniture. Streets after dark belong to armed gangs operating black markets in everything from clean water to butchered pets. Shop staff flee as customers brawl in the aisles over torch batteries and out-of-date Pot Noodles. The prime minister declares a national state of emergency but nobody hears him.
Hold it right there. Think anyone has ever made as assessment of what Britain "needs"? Of course not, what the writer means to say is "the power it demands".
Which just happens to be, what would it be, 10 times what a Bangladeshi "needs", and half of what an American "needs".
I think the British may well find out soon what it is they really "need." If only because what they "demand" won't be available.
We ain't Bangladesh.
'I think the British may well find out soon what it is they really "need." If only because what they "demand" won't be available.'
Really?
I dont much want to find out. And certainly not just hang about waiting for the end.
If coal plus nukes can work, then we should crack on.
If anybody thinks that Wind, solar and tidal will fill the gap or take over the burden, then they are talking out of their ass.
I want UKGov to pull its finger out of its collective ass and do what it is paid to do:
Look after the interests of UKPeople and UKSecurity.
I reiterate: we have 60 million + people in these Islands.
The BNP seems to be the only party there that has a handle on things.
It's a combination of becoming more sustainable plus avoiding a "Camp Of The Saints" future.
The BNP is EXACTLY the reason I want to keep the lights on.
Yeah I hate admitting the BNP would be MY party if I were over there but it's the truth.
You have the invaders from parts south - siding with them will get you skinned and fed to their dogs.
You have the weak mainstream politicians who will sell you out tomorrow so their can postpone their own skinning alive another week.
Then you have the BNP types who know what kind of a fight Britain is in for.
The BNP are probably the ony way the lights will stay on.
''The BNP are probably the ony way the lights will stay on.''
The BNP are the last thing we need: Tatooed knuckle-draggers don't do advanced, high tech civilisation well. But unless the mainstream system pulls its finger out, then, when the lights are out in 2015 and by 2017 they may easily get in.
And if they do, then it will be our own fault.
Coal and Nukes...
Nukes and Coal...
Like it or not...
No way out...
Shame really... Nukes and Coal: lots of well paid, high skill, indigenous jobs in Physics, Engineering, Eng. Geology, Construction, Electrical Maintenance, IT, you name it.
Shame we hosed all the Oil revenue away...
Tattooed knuckle draggers eh?
You mean the people who come put out the fire if your house catches fire? You mean the guy who works on your car? How about the EMTs who come scrape you off the pavement, keep you alive, and get you to the hospital where you're cared for by 2-3 "knuckle draggers" for every doctor?
This hatred of the working class has to end.
This hatred of the working class has to end.
As opposed to hatred of the inferior races, foreigners, immigrants, jews and gays ? You have admitted in the past on this forum that you are a Nazi. No wonder you like the BNP.
For those of you who don't know fleam, here is an excerpt from his posting on Nov 30, 2006: http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/29/8303/3470#comment-131215
You are a knuckle dragger, fleam. And it has nothing to do with being a member of the working class. You could have 10 Ph.D.s from Harvard and millions in the bank; you are still a knuckle dragger.
No, not necessarily - the stable state is the ethno-state, and the "ethno" seems to be defined in terms of a generally agreed upon culture and being of one of the "in group" races. Note that the BNP wiki mentions that the BNP does note that "acceptable" races are English, Welsh, "European caucasian", Scottish, etc., while these are races that were at each others' throats not too long ago.
I'm not saying the BNP approach is the best, nicest, etc., I'm saying that for better or for worse, it's probably the winning one.
Get this: The Moslems, not all of the Moslems, but enough of them, want to make Europe and England part of the Caliphate. They have large population pressures in many of their nations' cases and England and Europe are going to be more favorable places to live in a global warming future.
As for Valhalla, well, if I really believed in Valhalla I'd be working on my broadswoard skills like Now. As for the idea of taking plenty of earth-eaters with me when I go, well, I'm dead serious about that and feel we all ought to be :-) oops I mean :-)