DrumBeat: October 13, 2007


How science silenced the sceptics

The science of climate change has advanced enormously in the past decade and gradually the sceptics have been silenced as their objections were answered.

Sceptics still exist, and many of them have good points to make, but it is they who have been pushed to the fringe of political and scientific debate.

One Decade into a New Era

Ten years ago, oil prices hit their lowest prices in two decades, and pundits proclaimed that an era of lower oil prices was here to stay.


Shell Stops Gas Pumping in Nigeria After Fire on Pipeline

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's largest oil company, shut natural gas pumping at one of its Nigerian fields following a fire on a pipeline in the south of the country.

Nigerian unit Shell Petroleum Development Co. reported the fire on the Utorogu-Ughelli gas condensate pipeline in the Delta state yesterday, Alexandra Wright, a London-based company spokeswoman, said today. Shell had to declare force majeure on deliveries to the nation's gas pipeline network, she said.


Japan, China Remain Apart on East China Sea Gas Development

At a bureau chief-level meeting on Thursday, Japan and China failed to narrow differences over proposed joint gas field development in disputed waters in the East China Sea.


$100 Oil? We Love It

Digging around in decades-old research, three young entrepreneurs may have unlocked a new source of fluid energy: coal.


Peace may erode as the world warms, experts say

What does global warming have to do with global peace? The globe may find out sooner than we think, experts say.


Shipping pollution 'far more damaging than flying'

New research suggests that the impact of shipping on climate change has been seriously underestimated and that the industry is currently churning out greenhouse gases at nearly twice the rate of aviation.

Shipping, although traditionally thought of as environmentally friendly, is growing so fast that the pollution it creates is at least 50 per cent higher than previously thought. Maritime emissions are also set to leap by 75 per cent by 2020.


Loving Ethanol For The Sake Of Iowa

It’s a depressing ritual. Every four years, as Iowans prepare to cast the first votes in the presidential-primary season, candidates descend on the corn-covered state and discover the miraculous properties of ethanol.


It’s the Oil

Iraq is ‘unwinnable’, a ‘quagmire’, a ‘fiasco’: so goes the received opinion. But there is good reason to think that, from the Bush-Cheney perspective, it is none of these things. Indeed, the US may be ‘stuck’ precisely where Bush et al want it to be, which is why there is no ‘exit strategy’.


Data centers: responsible for the energy crisis?

The running of expanding data centers is being linked to an emergent energy resource crisis.


Pioneer spirit will help solve our energy needs

The last century has been marked by petroleum use. However, as we learn that our dependence on foreign oil cannot be sustained, scientists are looking back to energy sources first tapped by pioneers. Wood, prairie grasses and many other renewable sources of cellulose will have a role in producing ethanol and other alternative fuels in the future. Harnessing wind, and capturing our vast solar power potential, will again be important to our energy production. The modern equivalent of the buffalo chip, manure from agriculture, may soon fuel ethanol plants.


Reactor could be in province's future

Saskatchewan could be the home of a nuclear reactor in years to come, according to a Cameco senior vice-president.

“A nuclear renaissance is here,” not only in the province but also around the world, Gary Chad told those gathered at an Oct. 12 Business Builder’s Luncheon sponsored by the Prince Albert & District Chamber of Commerce.


The Environmental Movement in the Global South: The Pivotal Agent in the Fight against Global Warming

When the rich chopped down their own forests, built their poison-belching factories and scoured the world for cheap resources, the poor said nothing. Indeed they paid for the development of the rich. Now the rich claim a right to regulate the development of the poor countries…As colonies we were exploited. Now as independent nations we are to be equally exploited.


City gives bike rentals a spin

A bicycle fleet that would make quick trips possible from kiosks throughout the city could hit Portland streets within a year, polishing the city’s image as one of the most bike-friendly places in the nation.


Energy Prices May Dictate Where Homes are Built and Bought

Transit-oriented development has become a "buzz-phrase" among developers, who recognize that the cost of energy likely will play a more important role in home buying decisions.

In fact, "house miles" (the number of miles a home is from employment, retail, education and entertainment) becoming a deal breaker or maker, according to land use industry experts at ULI's recent annual fall meeting in Denver.


Wall Street Could Use More Energized Investment

Energy provides the heat, motion and feedstock that cause all economic action. Energy is the industrial oxygen that gives life to the economy. Currently the majority of that industrial oxygen comes from the various forms of hydrocarbons, and investment in hydrocarbons looks bright for the foreseeable future. In the United States, 50 percent of electricity comes from coal and roughly another 30 percent comes from natural gas. Of course, nearly 100 percent of U.S. transportation fuels come from hydrocarbons, and demand has risen for the last 200 years. Since supply is constrained and demand continues to rise, this can only lead to continued good times for investors.


Saudi to increase oil sales

Saudi Arabia told major Asian refiners yesterday it will raise their crude sales by a tenth in November, more than expected as it meets the lion's share of Opec's pledge to boost output, industry sources said.

The recovery in shipments to 100 per cent of contractual volumes was a surprise to many customers, and would equate to as much as a 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in exports.


Mexico's Pemex Seeks New Cooperation Deals With Exxon, Total

Petroleos Mexicanos hopes to strike new cooperation agreements with foreign oil majors, including Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Total (TOT), a company executive said.


Closure may cut Aramco Nov LPG loading capacity by 30%

Shipments from the Dhahran of Saudi Arabia-based company are likely to be further curtailed by maintenance at an LPG export terminal in Yanbu. The planned closure may cut the company’s loading capability by between 30 and 50 per cent in November.


Niger Delta Crude Output Recovery on Track

Crude oil production from Nigeria's troubled Niger Delta region looks set to continue its recovery in the months ahead, Nigeria's finance minister told Dow Jones Newswires Friday.


Waiting for the Energy

Conventional wisdom among environmentalists today says it would be unwise to pass a major climate change bill too soon. As long as the Bush veto looms and Republicans retain the filibuster club in the Senate, any climate change bill that passes through that birth canal is likely to be a stunted, shriveled thing. Better to wait until a strong bill can be passed than to establish a weak policy now.

But energy is supposed to be different.


In India, a $2,500 Pace Car

Next fall, the Indian automaker Tata Motors is scheduled to introduce its long-awaited People’s Car, with a sticker price of about $2,500. Hot on its tail may be as many as half a dozen new ultra-affordable vehicles — some from the world’s leading carmakers, including Toyota and Renault-Nissan.

With a median age of just under 25 and a rapidly expanding middle class, India will overtake China next year as the fastest-growing car market, according to estimates by CSM Worldwide, an auto industry forecasting service.


Energy forum: Peak oil and hybrids

A group of more than 80 concerned residents attended the Community Dollars and Sense Energy Forum held Wednesday at Willits High School. Topics involved peak oil as well as gas, electric and hybrid vehicles.


Is flying akin to driving a Hummer?

Last spring, I attended a conference on the converging catastrophes of peak oil and climate change at a bucolic estate outside Hamburg in northern Germany. It was an intimate affair, and it began with an informal round of cocktails on the tidy lawn next to the manor house. As the timeless cadence of horse hooves echoed from behind the barn, the assembled circle of eminent geologists, policy wonks and seasoned environmental journalists traded answers to the most pressing question of the day: "How did you get here?"


Carbon labelling: Food footprints coming soon to a label near you

Putting carbons on goods and services was, until recently, just another interesting idea that used to be bandied about at meetings of environmentalists. What if consumers knew the carbon content of what they were buying? Would it make people more conscious of their environmental impact? Buyers could start to choose the greenest of a range of goods, rewarding companies that cut carbon output and creating a virtuous circle by which businesses would compete to outgreen each other.

But this year, carbon labelling has started to make an impact. In January, Tesco, the UK supermarket chain, announced it would put carbon labels on all the products on its shelves - though it later admitted this could take several years to achieve.


Nobel prize recognises climate crisis

In awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the committee has signalled its view that climate change is now one of global society's defining security issues.


Gore's Nobel win should boost alternative energy

The winning of the Nobel Peace Prize by Al Gore and the U.N. climate panel on Friday should give a push to alternative energy technologies that are already enjoying their best year ever, experts said.

The prize could spur change in the energy industry that coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power dominate.


Africa's biggest ethanol production project for Mozambique

"Under the project, among other things, more than 30,000 hectares of sugar cane will be produced as well as a factory for the production of ethanol from the sugar cane," said the minister, who did not give details of the quantity of ethanol to be produced annually."


Saving energy at home could take 200 years to repay its cost

The cost of installing energy-saving measures such as solar panels would take more than 200 years to recoup in reduced bills, according to research published today.

...Even loft insulation would take 13 years to produce savings in utility bills. “People on average spend 16 years living in one property, making most of the EPC energy saving measures financially unattractive propositions,” said RICS. Ten per cent stay in their home for less than five years, and about 12 per cent less than three years.


Oil quest goes to new lengths

As global demand soars and prices rise, energy companies are going to the ends of the earth to find new supplies.

...But as the industry extends its reach, the quest is becoming more arduous. The cost of producing new oil and gas is rising fast, and companies are troubled by worsening delays. Drilling rigs are scarce. Engineers, geologists and petroleum specialists are in short supply. And the politics of oil and gas are becoming trickier, with producing countries demanding a bigger share of the revenue and growing angry about project delays that postpone their payments.

Industry executives say their ability to keep up with global demand is badly strained.


Kazakhstan cuts oil output forecast, blames ENI

Kazakhstan will produce 13 percent less oil than expected by 2015, removing 400,000 barrels per day from forecast global supply, due to delays in launching the massive Kashagan field, government officials said on Friday.


Mideast Project Financing to Touch $1 Trillion in 10 Years

With project finance transactions reaching record highs and infrastructure development requirements assessed at more than $1 trillion over the coming decade in the Middle East region — and Qatar alone expected to consume $130 billion, demand from large-scale projects across the LNG, oil & gas, petrochemicals, power and water sectors in particular is growing at an exciting pace. Combined with the huge boom in major real estate projects, the stage is set for meeting the challenges of financing complex projects


Analysis: Algeria faces attacks on energy

Attacks on French companies in Algeria by an Islamist group associated with al-Qaida are moving some of those companies to evacuate their employees, but a relatively quick response by security forces there and increasing global demand for the nation's oil and gas make it likely that energy production and export will be little affected by the violence.


Peak Oil Passnotes: $100 Oil?

When this column turns away from baiting peak oil nihilists - and it is not hard - we often like to take a look at the market for crude oil. As you know we like to throw in a prediction now and again, our current one being that the WTI price at Cushing in the U.S. will fall to $66.60 at Christmas.


Thinking ahead

Population predictions for greater metro Albuquerque over the next l8 years seem delusional. If we top a million people by 2025, it will be a double-edged miracle.

On the good side, it will mean New Mexico had done something no place in the country has managed to do - solve its water, energy, transportation and sustainable agriculture issues. It also means that global warming and peak oil declines had somehow reversed themselves.


Human Cost Of Colombian Coal Revealed

A case study of the world's largest open-pit coal mine reveals the hidden costs of coal from Colombia, in particular the effects on indigenous and Afro-Colombian villages.


Three Gorges Dam to create eco-refugees

Chongqing's plan calls for the establishment of a green belt surrounding the reservoir to curb pollution and prevent further erosion of the Yangtze's banks.

The announcement follows an unusually frank government assessment last month that China could face a catastrophe if it fails to quickly stop environmental problems caused by the dam.


New book bashes the oilsands

Northern Alberta in the future: a massive toxic swamp, devoid of trees and animals, which all the proceeds of the oilsand profits siphoned to other countries.

That is the vision painted by author William Marsden in his recently-released book Stupid to the Last Drop, which levels both sharp and heavy criticism against oilsands development in the province.

The book has caught the attention -- and it’s not always positive -- of several oilsands and petroleum companies, spurring a new round of environmental and economics debate over the deposits, most of them in this region.


Australia: Water emergency

EMERGENCY plans have been prepared to supply Adelaide with spring water for drinking as experts warn the drought is forcing us to consider extreme measures.

Spring water suppliers yesterday said they had talks with SA Water about the feasibility of delivering water in either bottles or tankers to households if Adelaide's water crisis dramatically worsened.


Memo from a 'global warming agnostic'

Now that it's accepted beyond serious argument that global warming is real and worrisome, Canada's political parties are understandably trying to outbid each other in showing their commitment to fighting the phenomenon. That's better than head-in-the-sand denial. But it's obscuring the need for a sophisticated debate -- of the sort that's raging internationally -- about what the reality of global warming actually means in practical terms and what sacrifices are necessary to deal with it.


The unheralded polluter: cement industry comes clean on its impact

No company will make carbon-neutral cement any time soon. The manufacturing process depends on burning vast amounts of cheap coal to heat kilns to more than 1,500C. It also relies on the decomposition of limestone, a chemical change which frees carbon dioxide as a byproduct. So as demand for cement grows, for sewers, schools and hospitals as well as for luxury hotels and car parks, so will greenhouse gas emissions. Cement plants and factories across the world are projected to churn out almost 5bn tonnes of carbon dioxide annually by 2050 - 20 times as much as the government has pledged the entire UK will produce by that time.

The whole "home energy improvements aren't economic" thing is just silly, IMHO. Sure, in the terms a mortgage grifter would understand I'd never "recoup my investment" in putting up a turbine here to drive a ground loop cooling system. But if we take a tumble as a civilization, which seems to be a when rather than an if, this house will be warm or cool while the economic will freeze or swelter.

Its too late to pack the survival kit after one is already stranded on the desert island ... P&L used to mean profit and loss, but I'd like to suggest that peas and lentils will be the new meaning in a post peak world.

The difference, of course, is that for the vast majority of people, the idea that civilization will collapse any time soon is ridiculous. Might as well prepare for an invasion by Martians. Heck, in the US, there are probably more people preparing for the Rapture than preparing for a Mad Max future.

Pic (s) of the Day.

Courtesy Survivalacres:

Before:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/19790211.png

After:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20070905.jpg

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

Definitely some good shipping lanes up North in the "After" scenario :-)

Err, its not a 'scenario'.

Look at the filename.

Apples ...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/19781026.png

to Apples:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20071012.jpg

Almost as visually impressive and no winter vs. summer controversy - the images are twenty nine years apart but at roughly the same time of the year.

It looks like we are moving from the large,whole house ducted HVAC system to the the little bread box sized unit ratteling away wedged in window.

Thanks for the links, SCT.

Mad Max is a lot more fun.

No rules. Just right.

As A Southern Christian I will vouch for that comment. It pains me to see so many people that have plainly just not taken the time to Look into their Bibles and read further. But then again I am a Lutheran by "demonation" yes that is misspelled for a reason. There should only be One Christian Chruch and there is, but God is the one counting the heads not the local Ushers.

Every time a person dies IMHO(Humble) there is a Rapture event. But I digress.

I am a eat your yard kind of plant grower. But that also means I am out there looking for every edible plant from here to kentucky, or in my case everywhere I can walk. Which currently with a hurt ankle and a bad knee is only about 5 miles per day. But as they get stronger I have a walking radius of about 10 miles I figure in my max city walking. 2 weeks ago it was 6 miles of radius. God willing and my own stubborn streak I will be up to the 10 mile radius in about 3 weeks.

Survival is not on the minds of anyone much, expect the trully Homeless, which I work with everyday. The General public is just not geared to survival. That is where folks like us will come in handy later in the years to come. Sharing Our hard earned skills, if the end does not bring war and famine on the scales it could bring.

God Grant you peace.
God Grant you Love of your fellow man.
God Grant you Faith and Trust.
Write in Candidate for President 2008.
Free Right Now party. No donations.
No wage over Lowest wage in the land.
Term limits for congress, 2 for Senate, 3 fo

Hello CEOJr1963

I'm no Christian and I don't believe in a God or Santa Clause and I also don't feel the need to profess by beliefs or non beliefs in every post I make.
Would you be offended if I proclaimed in every post that there was no God?

Apart from that I recognize that you are a sincere, good and righteous person and I admire you for understanding their plight and willingness to help the less fortunate when the affects of PO and GW become entrenched.

What does offend me though are those who have their acres and bunkers in the hills, with food stored for years and continually push entirely unrealistic options for the survival of everyone, they even tell us how they will defend their property but complain about the price of bullets.

They argue electric cars, solar panels on every roof and wind mills by the millions will save the day, logistics is never mentioned or considered. They tell us what they have, and what they have achieved, inferring how smart they are. They tell us what can be done but never, never tell us how it will happen.

They are truly representative of the overall psychopathic human race, their creed is FYJ and they live by it.

A bunker mentality will not save many. Community cooperation is the only defence against a world of scarce energy and food. Not that I think enough cooperation will eventuate, I just hope it will.

Enough of a rant for one day.

I agree. How long does it take to recoup the cost of new granite countertops? Or a designer outfit? Or a new plasma TV?

There's a difference between money spent for entertainment and money spent as an investment. If your hobby is solar tech, then installing solar panels is "worth it" even if you never save any money.

A new plasma TV is money spent for fun. No one expects to recoup their expense. Designer outfits...can be an expense, can be an investment. If it gets you a rich husband or wife, worth the money! ;-) Or more prosaically, "dressing for success" still counts in a lot of workplaces. The right clothes can mean the difference between getting a promotion or not getting one. (A friend of mine used to work for IBM. She went in on Christmas Eve a few years back, when there was hardly anyone around. She never dealt with the public, and thought it would be okay to wear jeans and a nice button-down shirt, just for that day. Wrong. Her boss saw her, called her into his office, and told her, "You're a brilliant engineer. It would be really tragic if you threw your career away because of the way you dress.")

Granite countertops can be worth the money, too, if they help your house stand out. A friend of mine was trying to sell her house in Shaker Heights, Ohio. There were something like 500 similar houses in the area for sale. The houses that were selling were the ones that had details like granite countertops or stainless steel appliances.

... the study from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors shows that some of the measures, such as solar panels to heat water, would cost £5,000 to install but reduce average bills by only £24 a year and would take about 208 years to pay back.

The RICS data shows that putting in all eight measures, including insulation, condenser boilers and double glazing, would cost £23,547. This would knock only £486 off fuel bills and would take 48 years to recoup.

I had one immediate reaction when reading this: the Chartered Surveyors live in a parallel universe which differs from mine on 3 main points:

  1. There is no inflation
  2. Energy prices don't rise (i.e. not faster than inflation)
  3. There will be no energy shortages

Now, the last two points can be forgiven, what could they know? But assuming zero inflation reeks of something a smitten less than good faith.

The first example is so absurd, we'll leave that alone. Looks like such an insane use of solar panels that somewhat lower taxes would be useless.

At 3% inflation, prices double every 23 years. So in the second example, which mentions a 48 years recoup period, savings, in the last years, would be over 4 times the £486 quoted. I don't want to do all the calcs (they should have though), but the recoup would take about 20 years instead of 48, I'd guesstimate.

In the real world, of course, we will see sharply higher energy prices (rising faster than inflation) even within the next 20 years, and the UK will see severe shortages. Solar panels, double glazing, all of these, can be expected to get more expensive too.

The only thing that would make true sense for a country like the UK (if not all countries) is to lower the sales tax to 0%, and provide loans to homeowners at the same 0%. If energy prices rise at double inflation, 6%, for a doubling every 11.6 years, it would be by far the best investment a government could ever hope to make. And the sooner the better!

Instead, the UK government pushes for more nuclear projects. And that may well be why we'll never see them do what makes more sense. Even though the projected costs for clean-up of older nuclear is now projected at between £73-100 billion, another 16% more than last year's projection, before it's even started. Government equals industry, politics equals economics.

Using less energy is an enormous threat to our economic system, and we'll have to break through the resistance inherent in the system. Down the line, less energy means less growth potential, and without growth the system dies.

In any case, the Chartered Surveyors should not issue these silly reports.

Even though the projected costs for clean-up of older nuclear is now projected at between £73-100

Did they hire Enron to do it? We just closed four reactors in Bulgaria, for euro 200 mln. a piece. With the money you site we could close the whole world nuclear industry plus change.

I don't doubt that if government beurocrats are given opportunity they will balloon costs to the sky - we've seen this happening in Yucca Mountain already, where $6bln. was spend just to investigate whether they could dig one hole in the ground. My advice: change your government.

Good Advice. We're on it.

Watch Afghanistan for details.

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

I thought Afghanistan was changing back -- they said they didn't want democracy any more.

The problem will solve itself.
But not in a nice way.

the Chartered Surveyors live in a parallel universe which differs from mine on 3 main points

4 points - in our universe, present money is worth more than future money.

When a government bond can get you a risk-free-as-it-gets 5%/yr return, that £23,547 will be £244,919 in 48 years, and the energy-saving improvements will never pay for themselves (at current rates).

The only thing that would make true sense for a country like the UK (if not all countries) is to lower the sales tax to 0%, and provide loans to homeowners at the same 0%.

Don't be silly - you know such loans would overwhelmingly be spent on non-energy-related things.

Using less energy is an enormous threat to our economic system

Not really - smaller cars, shorter commutes, and 40mph electric vehicles can already take care of most of our oil dependency.

And "energy" isn't the problem here - it's oil. As much as people may not like it, there's plenty of coal around.

there's plenty of coal around

There is, however, a severe shortage of atmosphere in which to dump the combustion byproducts into.

Alan

There is, however, a severe shortage of atmosphere in which to dump the combustion byproducts into.

True. I'm simply attacking the pernicious misconception that a shortage of liquid fuels means a shortage of energy, and the world's large reserves of coal are the most obvious way to do that. Other alternatives are preferable, but if energy shortages get bad enough to "break our economic system", coal will be there to make sure society doesn't crumble for lack of energy.

By preference, of course, that won't be necessary.

So instead society collapses due to environmental disaster and climate change? Wow, big improvement there, Pitt. Excuse me if I don't find your argument compelling.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone

So instead society collapses due to environmental disaster and climate change?

You may wish to re-familiarize yourself with the False Dilemma Fallacy.

Excuse me if I don't find your argument compelling.

No, you simply fail to understand what I'm saying.

I'm not arguing in favour of coal; I'm simply saying (a) peak oil is not peak energy, and (b) a rapid decline in oil availability is likely to lead to increased coal consumption, unless alternatives improve enough to take up the slack.

Alternatives (including conservation) would be preferable, obviously.

Hi Pitt,

Interesting point.

re: "a shortage of liquid fuels means a shortage of energy"

A few Qs, though:

1) Don't we have to define this a little more precisely to know what "a shortage of liquid fuels" does actually mean? Or, what the actual results will be?

As a subset of total energy, a shortage in the LF portion does mean the *total* amount of energy coming into what I'll call "the system" actually will decrease - yes?

So, in this sense, a "shortage" of LF does precisely mean a "shortage" of total energy input. (As far as I can tell.)

2) Further, at the present time, we have - what percentage (or how else to qualify and/or quantify it) - of the energy extraction/production technology of non-oil energy sources dependent upon the availability of oil - yes?

This means, coal extraction is dependent upon oil - yes? How to analyze this in meaningful terms in order to see just what the effects of "LF shortage" will be in total energy terms?

Just as sketches, the numbers I've seen are 8% shortfall (oil supply v. demand) for US spells - some kind of big trouble for the "economic system" - (yes?)

3) re: "if energy shortages get bad enough to "break our economic system", coal will be there"

How is it that "energy shortages" will provide the means - (or trigger) - for coal to "be there"? Or, do I misunderstand you here?

If it is not the "energy shortages" that will somehow provide impetus for coal to be there, then what is the cause and effect?

It seems the opposite is the case - oil shortages could/ possibly would/will cause sufficient disruption in just about everything - (agree or disagree?). How is it that coal will "be there"?

4) "crumble"
Well, it seems like moving to lower-value energy resources, such as coal (and what percentage high grade coal is left?) - would actually imply some "crumbling", or, adjustments to lower-value sources. The question is: are these "adjustments" going to prevent or halt the direction of disintegration?

How much can *not* work and still have the "economic system" function?

So, it seems the questions are:

1. How much energy
2. From where
3. within what time period
4. Can avoid "crumble"
5. And then what?

There's a difference between money spent for entertainment and money spent as an investment.

Indeed, I have occasionally thought that there should be another metric, EROEW - Energy Return on Energy Wasted. This could be a fruitful concept, since by any reasonable measure MOST of the energy being used by the human race is currently 'wasted' in order to stimulate human brains in unnecessary ways.

Under EROEW, you could have quite positive results even with terrible EROEI.

It's stupid but true. Most 'energy' and 'environment' projects these days actually fall more under EROEW than anything else.

EROEW, I laughed at that one. I was a driver of a vehicle just over a month ago. 9-11 of 2007 brought that to a close. The wreck nearly totalled my van. But I am getting spare parts from junk years and I know how to fix things witht he help of my Father who has the tools to Weld the thing back together if need be. But I am and always have been a walker. I am eating a bit more than I used to, but I am also walking a bit further than I used to as well. I could say I have a bus pass, but I handed it off to my 3rd Ex-wife she needs it more than I do. Seeing that we are trying to work on getting back together, but that is another story as well.

Xsurbs would die at the EROEW meteric. Even though my parents and I do not watch TV them it is about 15 years me it is about 8. We do things like read books and play on the Internet. Though my dad has worked on making his hauling trailer a covered wagon, using PVC pipes and 1/4 in strand board, he is painting it for protection now, and we know it will haul just about anything we can put in it. It used to be a Tent Camper, from the 60's.

I would not know how much stuff my dad has in his sheds and storage, but I imagine, this house being the center of a vast Hardware store in the trading for food future. He has over 5,000 Cubic feet of tools and more fastners and hardware things than most hardware stores I have been in. You name the Hardware Dept and I will name the things he has, or skills he has to fix things.

The Local kids come over to get their Skate-boards fixed. While we were cooking supper this evening, they showed up and I fixed something for them. Next door we have a Concrete expert. Across the street we have a Glass man, mostly Auto glass, but he has hung mirrors and other window glass for my dad's old job. Three Pastors, one retired,( counting me as a walkabout pastor to the Homeless folks), and one with a church van parked in his yard.

This is a Working class neighborhood and is in its second childhood. My parents being the oldest residents and having the respect of the rest of the folks. I guest I am the odd one out. I keep odd hours and I practice my stave training in the front yard and wave at folks as they come and go.

EROEW would be a good study program.

God Grant you peace.
God Grant you Love of your fellow man.
God Grant you Faith and Trust.
Write in Candidate for President 2008.
Free Right Now party. No donations.
No wage over Lowest wage in the land.
Term limits for congress, 2 for Senate, 3 fo

The right clothes can mean the difference between getting a promotion or not at IBM. She has to decide if she can fit in with their culture or not. And whether she wants to be promoted. Success just means more 60 hour workweeks and four marriages.

There's lots of places an engineer can work Christmas eve in jeans and a t-shirt. IBM isn't one of them.

RobertInTucson

I haven't escaped from reality. I have a daypass.

She eventually took the buyout from IBM.

Engineers at my office pretty much all wear jeans and T-shirts - every day. It's one thing I love about it, because work clothes are a not-insignificant expense. Not to mention it's more comfortable than suits and ties/hose and heels.

I worked for IBM for 30 yrs and retired there.

Long long ago it was suits and white shirts out in the field,then I went to the Sys Design and Dev(not in the field) and most wore anything they wished and that was in the early 70's.

A workmate wore extremely short mini-skirts enough so that we threw coins on the floor in front of her at meetings..she was a full fledged biker chick and it didn't bother her a bit.

One jewish fella wore clothes made of the American flag motif.Most wore jeans. Being a ex-field guy I wore slacks and felt overdressed..this was Kingston,NY.

If she was an engineer and not in the field she was ok..her mgr was the problem and in the real old IBM the employee would have been kept but the erring mgr would have been shitcanned or severely chewed out...engineers and good programmers were more valuable than a stupid mgr.

airdale-I was there and have the rolex to prove it..now you get a plastic chinese trink instead of a $3,000 Rolex..times have changed but ignorant management has not..sadly..

Funny, while reading this post it struck me that a collar and tie is symbolic. In bygone years slaves wore an iron collar and chain, now it is made of cloth. No wonder employers are so strict on the correct form of dress. Staff must know their place. :)

Yeah, the "neck tie" is another symbolic accessory. Maybe that's why smart engineers wear clip on ties...

E. Swanson

In financial terms, you are describing 'shortfall risk' - that % chance that you fall short of your minimum requirements, which are of course, food, water, heat, shelter.

When looked at from completely an economic point of view, this risk is zero, but readers of this site know its some unknown % greater than zero so you bring up a good point.

Also, I'm guessing those analyses are using current electricity costs which are subsidized by cheap coal and nat gas - if there is a doubling or tripling or more of electricity in years to come, people that spent money on energy efficiency upgrades/investments will look smart.

Those type of long term investments are like buying 'convexity' in the bond market - as interest rates (energy prices) rise, you get an outsized impact on your investment, the longer your duration is - esoteric concept but I think it applies equally well to finance and energy, and is helpful when one thinks the future world will run on energy as the current one runs (kind of) on interest rates.

The numbers used are badly wrong. £5000 for solar panels to gain £24 worth of improvement? Only if you were dumb enough to install solar PV panels to power an immersion heater and take nothing but cold showers.

RICS are a sizeable part of the problem with regard to overpriced housing stock in the UK, and they fought the introduction of energy certificates in the first place. Even though reducing VAT on home energy products is a good idea, they aren't proposing it for positive motives, you can bet.

SCT - I was going to say much the same thing. Why is it that ROI is a big deal when it comes to energy when the vast majority of money people spend is for crap that will never give a return?

I have to admit that this has driven me crazy for years. People can afford a plasma TV for several thousand dollars but wouldn't consider installing a solar water heating system. Or, they buy the $40k SUV that sucks gas like there is no tomorrow (one day they'll find out there isn't one) but wouldn't consider inproving their home's insulation.

The other irony is that energy improvements at least hold out the possibility of a return whereas, if the market tanks or hyperinflation occurs, they basically lose any chance of a return from their money.

Todd