DrumBeat: October 12, 2007


OPEC exports to leap 670,000 bpd to Oct. 27

OPEC oil exports, excluding Angola, will jump 670,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to Oct. 27, marking the biggest rise so far this year ahead of peak winter demand, an analyst who estimates future shipments said on Thursday.

Roy Mason of Oil Consultancy estimated OPEC 11 seaborne exports would rise to 24.49 million bpd, compared with 23.82 million bpd to Sept. 29 Mason said most of the extra supply was heading from the Gulf to Asian refiners.

Asked if the oil could represent the extra 500,000 bpd pledged by OPEC in September to the market from November 1, he replied: "No. I don't think so, it could much more be to do with the UAE's announcement on maintenance at a field in November."

From whale oil and beyond

FOR THOSE concerned about improving international security, fighting global warming, and reducing pollution, the petroleum era cannot end too soon. But that end will not come until other energy sources beat oil at its own game. While this may seem to be an impossible dream, a look back at the whale oil industry provides a measure of perspective and encouragement.


West geopolitics factor of oil scarcity-Total CEO

As global demand for oil and gas rises, consumer countries cannot afford to blacklist producing countries on geopolitical grounds, the head of Total, which is present in Iran and Myanmar, said on Thursday.


Total to Shut Feyzin Refinery in France for Repairs

Total SA, Europe's third-largest oil company, will shut down its refinery in Feyzin, France, for about seven weeks of maintenance starting Oct. 19.


Belarus offers Gazprom free gas transit if it builds pipelines

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko proposed that Russia start to build a second leg of a pipeline delivering natural gas to Europe, and offered free transit for five years.


Russia won't re-open oil pipeline, Lithuania says

Russia is unlikely ever to re-open its oil pipeline to Lithuania, closed in 2006 for repairs, Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus said on Thursday.


Gazprom after new projects in Venezuela

Gazprom discussed its possible involvement in new projects in Venezuela at negotiations in the South American country, Russia's state-controlled natural gas giant announced on Friday.


The story of Iranian oil and Israeli pipes

Iran is trying to locate property and assets belonging to the Israeli government and three Israeli oil firms abroad, and Israel is trying to thwart it. This affair arises from an international arbitration that determined more than three years ago that the Paz, Sonol and Delek oil companies must compensate the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) hundreds of millions of dollars.


ConocoPhillips to Start Two North Sea Oil Fields This Weekend

ConocoPhillips plans to start two North Sea oil fields this weekend after a three-week maintenance shutdown. The fields feed into the benchmark Ekofisk blend.


Offshore oil: Two weeks on the ocean wave - A row over working hours could spiral out of control

At issue is the question of what exactly counts as work. Under the directive, workers are either at work, at rest or on holiday. Employees are guaranteed 11 hours of rest in every 24, and are entitled to four weeks holiday every year. The contractors argue that workers are resting on their oil rigs when they are not on shift, and that, since they spend as much time onshore as off, they already get the equivalent of 26 weeks' holiday a year.

Not so, say the unions. Even asleep in their bunks, they assert, employees cannot spend their time as they wish.


Korea Construction Giants Ride Oil Boom

Market players seeking innovative ways to benefit from higher oil prices might consider exposure to South Korea, whose construction companies are being hired to build the refineries, petrochemical plants, offices, and infrastructure springing up around the Middle East.


SimCity adds global warming to the mix

SimCity Societies -- the forthcoming installment in the classic urban simulation franchise -- will include a global warming variable. If your SimSocieties aren't carefully balanced, they'll swamp their environments with greenhouse gasses and die off. The module is produced with BP, who, I guess, are trying to figure out what a giant oil company does next.


EPA to issue CO2 sequestration rules

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced Thursday it plans to develop geologic carbon dioxide sequestration regulations.


EU Eases Hurdles for Hydrogen Cars, Funds Research

Hydrogen-powered cars will be cleared for sale in a uniform way throughout the European Union under new rules proposed by the European Commission on Wednesday.


Palm oil taking a breather, set to soar

Palm oil has lost 6.4 percent from record levels it hit in June but prices will rebound soon and test new highs by the end of the year, as the world’s appetite for biofuels grows and production remains stagnant.


Palm oil furore could stymie green fuel plan

THE rush to replace carbon-emitting petroleum with "clean green" biofuels is threatening to stall in the face of rising food prices, Federal Government disincentives and growing opposition from environmental groups sounding the alarm about large-scale deforestation to support fuel crops.


Nuclear-Free Sweden is Still Only a Dream

Nearly thirty years after Sweden voted to phase out nuclear energy, firms are quietly increasing plant capacity and there is no end in sight for a power source still providing half of the nation's electricity.


Niger: Uranium - Blessing Or Curse?

Niger, an impoverished country on the southern fringe of the Sahara desert, has one of the world's largest reserves of uranium, the main source of nuclear fuel - but virtually nothing to show for it.

Instead, say local and international organisations, uranium mining by foreign-dominated companies has caused environmental damage and health problems in the far north of the country.

The mining operations are also causing domestic political tensions: one of the main demands of an armed militia that has been fighting Niger's army since February, the Niger Movement for Justice (MNJ), is a more equitable distribution of the revenues from uranium mining.


At home: Here's a house that's 'ecological and fabulous'

"My mission is to show people that they can be ecological and look fabulous," says Joaquin, 37, who, before joining House & Garden, wrangled models in Milan and helped launch ecofabulous.com. "In college, I was the annoying person telling people to recycle. Now it's nice to see so many people want to go green."


Vietnam's Coal-Fueled Boom

Dao Duy Dang remembers the night in 1963 when the lights came on in Uong Bi. "People were so excited," the 70-year-old tea-shop owner says, recalling the cheers that rang through the northern Vietnamese town after one of the country's first coal-fired power plants began operating. "Their whole lives they had wished for electricity." Be careful what you wish for. Soon after the plant opened, Dang's wife developed a cough from the thick black smoke from the power plant that hung over the town. His children had near-constant runny noses and neighbors reported other nagging health problems. When Vietnam's government announced plans to add a second coal-fired generator in 2005, villagers didn't celebrate. "The people cried out," Dang says.


Green fuel gets a black name

It is a sickening picture. A photograph of six soft-eyed baby orang-utans stamped with the words "Orphaned by Palm Oil companies". The image, along with scores of others showing adult apes staring out through the bars of cages, has created a public relations disaster for global companies buying the oil that many hoped would fuel a green energy boom.


Kill king corn

A successful biofuels industry will not be based on digestible starch from staple crops such as corn.


China: Biofuel expert allays food-shortage worries

A biofuel expert yesterday rejected an international report claiming that China's plan to produce more biofuels could lead to food and water shortages in the country.


OECD report takes a closer look at future impact of biofuels

In Snapshot 34, we described how Brazil had, after 30 years of effort, achieved energy self-sufficiency by means of a massive program to convert sugar cane to ethanol. Now, in an attempt to reduce dependence on oil and become “greener,” many other countries are jumping on the ethanol bandwagon, too.

However, a recent Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) paper entitled Biofuels: Is The Cure Worse Than The Disease? raises some serious questions regarding the costs of the increased reliance on ethanol as a petroleum substitute. In particular, the environmental costs in terms of the degradation of land by the use of more fertilizer and pesticides and increased air pollution were considered.


Global-warming skeptics: Is it only the news media who need to chill?

In the 1970s, mainstream media outlets published stories about a coming age of "global cooling" and the climate disaster it would trigger. Headlines of the time proclaimed "The Cooling World" (Newsweek, 1975), "Scientists Ask Why World Climate Is Changing: Major Cooling May Be Ahead" (The New York Times, 1975), and "Earth Seems to be Cooling Off Again" (The Christian Science Monitor, 1974).

Today, skeptics of global warming sometimes point to what they call the "global-cooling scare" of the 1970s as a reason to discount what they hear now. If the news media 30 years ago hyped "global cooling" and were wrong, skeptics say, doesn't it follow that "global warming" coverage might prove equally wrong?


Al Gore's $100M climate ad blitz

Rising energy prices have done little to curb consumption. Can a big ad campaign from Al Gore do the trick?


Going green with window shutters and tiny cars

With oil prices stuck above $80 (U.S.) a barrel and utility bills rising to painful levels, Europeans are paying more attention to conservation. The good news is they are already much more sensible users of electricity, cooking gas, auto fuel and water than the gourmand North Americans, thanks to high energy taxes and sheer force of habit. We moved to Italy six months ago and we’ve picked up their conservation lessons in a hurry. We’re amazed at how fairly modest changes in lifestyle can add up to a lot of savings.


UK: Anger as island’s fuel prices reach all time high

Fuel prices on Arran have reached an all time high, cranking up the financial pressure on businesses and motorists.


Price inflation makes Ramadan, Eid difficult for many

Last year, Maryam Juma marked the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in style.

She spent US$40 on a goat, roasted the beast to perfection and invited 10 relatives over for a feast to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, the festival at the end of Ramadan. She bought colorful new clothes for each of her children.

But this year, skyrocketing prices for staple foods and other goods have eaten into her budget, making celebrations she plans for Saturday much more low-key. Juma's story is being played out across the Muslim world due to soaring global grain costs, unstable fuel prices and other rising costs on the world market.


Shell gasoline-making unit at Singapore plant

Royal Dutch Shell has shut a 33,000 barrels per day (bpd) secondary processing unit at its Singapore refinery since a week ago due to an outage, forcing the major to buy fuel oil and has firmed up the gasoline market, industry sources said on Friday.


Charities prepare for cold

Last year especially was difficult because a fuel oil shortage led many vendors to refuse to serve any but regular customers, forcing the agency to “scrimp and save” and “call everybody possible,” Ciesielka said.


Iraq insurgency: Defending the railroads

Instability in central Iraq has cut al-Qaim off from Iraq's main supply lines.

Lt-Col Bohm would like to use trains to transport oil from the Baiji oil refinery to ease a fuel shortage.


Platts: OPEC Output Bolstered by Iraqi Volumes

Total crude-oil production from the 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose 300,000 barrels per day (b/d) in September, to 30.76 million b/d from 30.46 million b/d in August, as Iraqi volumes recovered and several other member countries further relaxed existing production constraints ahead of a formal output hike in November, a Platts survey showed October 11.


Greenland ice cap melting faster than expected

The ice cap in the northern hemisphere is melting a lot more rapidly that scientists thought, according to new research published Thursday by the Danish National Space Center.

"Until 2004, the glacier mass in the southeastern part of the island lost about 50 to 100 cubic kilometres (12 to 24 cubic miles) per year. After this date, the melting rate accelerated to 300 cubic kilometres per year. It's a jump of 400 percent, which is very worrying," National Space Center head researcher and project chief Abbas Khan told AFP.


Oil and metals fuel Canada's economy

Canada has tapped into a literal "underground economy" of oil and metals, suggesting it's no longer true, if it ever was, that we're a country of "hewers of wood and drawers of water," Statistics Canada said.

Canada has rediscovered its resource base over the last five years, thanks to the longest and strongest surge in commodity prices ever, Statistics Canada said Thursday in a report that focuses on the resources that are powering the Canadian economy early in the 21st century.


PEMEX tender contracts for approximately 12 billion pesos

As part of the integrated strategy that PEMEX has put forward towards the reinforcement of transparency and accounting of its activities, Petróleos Mexicanos is announcing six international public tenders for the execution of works in the facilities of Pemex Exploration and Production, (PEP).


Pemex Contract Worker Dies, Two Missing in Transport Ship Fire

Petroleos Mexicanos, the Mexican state-owned oil monopoly, said a transport ship carrying 176 workers caught fire in the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in one death and two people unaccounted for.


Cheaper car insurance for eco-friendly drivers?

While many are attracted to the environmental aspects, improved fuel consumption, cheaper tax and lower car insurance bands are an additional attraction, managing director of motorinsurance.co.uk Paul Cosh said.


Singh May Forego U.S. Nuclear Deal to Save Government

The prime minister's comments signal he's prepared to allow the agreement, the centerpiece of renewed ties between the U.S. and India, to lapse. That may deny India access to the nuclear fuel and technology it wants to upgrade its reactors and step up electricity production in a country that faces a 13 percent shortage of power during peak hours.


Oil and gas: 'In a bit of a limbo phase'

The sustainability of the global energy industry is increasingly under scrutiny in an age where apocalyptic fears about global warming and peak oil production are creeping into the public's imagination.

Apart from the damaging effect on the environment caused by the release of carbon dioxide during the extraction and end use of oil and gas, there are a whole raft of other issues towards which shareholders have become more sensitive.


Steady Energy Supply Faces Big Challenges

The signs are indeed ominous. Spiraling costs are already starting to impact. A recent report said ConocoPhillips was reconsidering its joint venture refinery project with Saudi Aramco in Yanbu - apparently a casualty of rising cost. The project cost has almost doubled to $12 billion from the initial estimate of $6 billion, reports said. This project was of crucial importance to the global energy balance, as its scope included processing heavy crude, which does not have many takers in the current scenario.


A conflict with Brazil could be brewing

In a few words: a huge conflict around the Bolivian gas issue can break out in South America at any time, and Venezuela would have to be involved as a belligerent force.


New Zealand: Questions And Answers with Michael Cullen, Minister of Finance

Does he agree with the internationally acclaimed peak oil expert, Richard Heinberg, who has just finished his presentation on peak oil in the Beehive theatrette at lunchtime, and who is present in the gallery today, that New Zealand needs urgent expansion and electrification of public transport because liquid fuel production worldwide, even including oil from unconventional sources, peaked more than a year ago and now appears to be in decline?


Ecoshow gives glimpse of future

As decades of environmental despoliation begins to elicit a response from nature - in the form of global warming and all it entails - people will have to learn to adapt to a new set of rules governing the environment, says Ecoshow director Bryan Innes.

Storms will get stronger, droughts will be longer and some food crops will fail; what it now comes down to is how we respond to the coming challenges, he says.


Enter White, The Green Candidate

Portland Peak Oil activist Randy White says he will join the increasingly crowded race for Sam Adams’ city council seat.


OCCA honors Otsego lawyer

Edward Lentz of New Lisbon has been named conservationist of the year by the Otsego County Conservation Association.

At OCCA's annual dinner and meeting at the Otesaga Ballroom on Oct. 25, Lentz, 52, will be honored for his environmental work, which ranges from raising awareness about the world's declining oil stocks to asking probing questions about Catalyst Renewables.


Wind farm idea is floated

A New Jersey-based company wants to build about 150 wind turbines, each more than 40 stories tall, in the Atlantic Ocean 12 miles from the tourist-packed beaches of Ocean City.


Pentagon backs plan to beam solar power from space

A futuristic scheme to collect solar energy on satellites and beam it to Earth has gained a large supporter in the US military. A report released yesterday by the National Security Space Office recommends that the US government sponsor projects to demonstrate solar-power-generating satellites and provide financial incentives for further private development of the technology.


Gore, UN Climate Panel Share 2007 Nobel Peace Prize

Former Vice President Al Gore and the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday for their work to raise awareness about global warming.

In a statement, Gore said he was "deeply honored," adding that "the climate crisis is not a political issue, it is a moral and spiritual challenge to all of humanity."

The former vice president said he would donate his half of the $1.5 million prize to the Alliance for Climate Protection, a U.S. organization he founded that aims to persuade people to cut emissions and reduce global warming.


U.S. Government Seeks to Exchange Crude for Cash

The U.S. Department of Energy issued a solicitation seeking contracts to exchange up to approximately 13 million barrels from Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico for crude oil that meets the specifications of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Bids are due by November 6, 2007.


Resource nationalism

Interestingly, an examination of resource nationalism through a theoretical analogue shows that, far from being irresponsible, it may be a feature of the underlying structure of global economy.


Oil sands as an industry saviour? The numbers tell the real story

The theme of this year's World Energy Outlook is surging Chinese and Indian demand and how it will be met (or not). The oil sands, relatively speaking, will probably not get much ink in the report. And that's the point. The IEA doesn't believe the oil sands, in spite of their rapid growth, will make anything more than "an important dent" in the global oil market - this from an IEA official who did not want to be named ahead of the report's publication. On the supply side of the equation, what the IEA cares about most is OPEC production, with special attention on Iran, the potential target of American fighter-bombers (more on Iran in a moment).


Alberta Oil Sands Group Makes Royalty Recommendations

A concerned group of in situ oil sands development corporations submitted a letter to the Government of Alberta in a joint response to the Report of the Alberta Royalty Review Panel. The companies assert that the Report fails to account for the many ways in which Alberta's smaller, entrepreneurial firms contribute to our economy by taking on huge risks and driving the technologies that make the Alberta Advantage possible.


Train derailment fire burns into 2nd day

Railroad tank cars carrying ethanol continued burning Thursday, more than 24 hours after a derailment and explosion drove hundreds of people from their homes, officials said.

Eight of the cars were loaded with potentially hazardous materials, mostly ethanol. One tanker that did not catch fire carried the more dangerous liquefied petroleum gas, said Garrick Francis, a spokesman for Jacksonville, Fla.-based CSX Corp.


The time has come for drastic action

There is now a growing concern among scientists that the two-degree warming cap accepted by the United Nations and European Union was based on a political compromise rather than a genuine scientific target. According to a paper prepared by Carbonequity, The Big Melt: Lessons from the Arctic Summer of 2007, which is available online, with the speed of change now in the climate system and the positive feedbacks that two degrees will trigger, it looms as a death sentence for a billion people and a million species.

A new Finance Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.

In the US, as one door has closed on subprime lending, another has opened on credit card debt. Actually living within one's means doesn't always seem to be an option, for some due to poverty and for others due to greed. Either way, the debt hole Americans (and Canadians, and the British) are collectively digging themselves into is getting deeper by the day, and they start young.

As losses mount, the role of mortgage fraud, by both borrowers and lenders, and also potential securities fraud, is being revealed. The litigation is only just beginning, but be prepared for a storm of legal action and recriminations. The ratings agencies are looking vulnerable to European action as their ratings enabled the sale of bad loans to European institutions, under conditions of conflict of interest.

Signs of stress are spilling over from the world of high finance to the real economy, where trucking and shipping are feeling the slowdown. Meanwhile Canada (several months behind the US) is still seeing a booming housing market, but for how long?


Americans charge it as Bank of Subprime closes

The automated teller for home loans is empty and Americans are relying increasingly on credit cards to pay their living costs, indicating tough hurdles ahead for U.S. consumer spending and markets.

Federal Reserve data released on Friday showed U.S. consumer borrowing rising by $12.18 billion in August, more than 20 percent more than economists had forecast. Most striking was an 8.1 percent increase in borrowing on revolving credit lines, mostly credit cards, to a record $909 billion. Credit card borrowings rose at the sharpest rate since early 2002.

So what was it that persuaded consumers to rack up more debt during the month?

Was it the increasing press coverage, no doubt reinforced by friends and family, that their houses were worth less than a month or a year ago? Or was it the near meltdown in financial and credit markets that prompted a surge in speculation about an upcoming recession?

Quite possibly, it wasn't because they felt better, but because things had gotten suddenly worse.

And I'll say it again - there are a lot of Americans who are flat-out broke, but have credit card debt they'll never be able to pay.

That debt continues to rack up interest at 30% (it's really 30 or more per cent too)

That extra balance shows up as more "charge it!" behavior

That extra "charge it!" behavior is taken to mean more economic activity.

It's taken to be, essentially, more dollars in the "mill".....

But those dollars aren't real. I'll do my BK* and you'll do your BK and the neighbor does theirs, and suddently dollars are disappearing all over the place and we're all living on about $300 a month, squatting with friends and picking sorrel salads and having oats for breakfast, there was not only no real additional economic activity, but our consumption goes way DOWN. Kiss of death for the american system.

*Sigh. The new BK law is no problem for those below their state's median income. Which I am, in spades. Also, with no assets, one course of action is to simply do nothing until the statute of limitations makes me or someone like me judgement-proof.

Congratulations to Al Gore on the Nobel Peace Prize. Let's hope this encourages people to take the matter more seriously.

P.S. Long time lurker, first time poster. Thanks to everyone at TOD for the top class intelligent analysis and news. You people have changed my life.

Perfect timing to note that today the arctic sea ice anomaly hit a new record in excess of 2.5 Million square kilometres, although how much in excess is not clear, as the line falls off the graphs...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeserie...

This will be the second time in 2 months they have to rescale the y-axis (sea ice anomoly) to include the most recent data. Nonlinearity is the name of the game.

Already the critics are complaining that climate change has nothing to do with peace. Good grief, have they been living in a cave? Even the Pentagon is warning that climate change will fuel warfare and unrest.

There's nothing wrong with climate change as a topic linked to peace. For those who don't get that one yet, just wait a few years more. But Gore and the IPCC are the exact wrong bodies to award it to. It's one-on-one the same as giving Kissinger the prize in 1973.

The IPCC has by now sufficiently been proven to be a hopelessly backward, always-late and inadequate panel. When 2000 scientists have to reach consensus on every single word published, that is no surprise, All that sort of organization requires is a handful of industry stoogies, and they'll never get anything right. It was set up that way for precisely that purpose: to be a huge failure. And that's the only part of it that actually works.

Gore waxes incessantly about the growth opportunities offered by climate change, if only we all get "green jobs". The 180 off-the-mark message, either utterly clueless or intentionally misleading. No, we cannot keep this economy rolling and save the planet's climate and ecosystem at the same time.

And, really, this was the message:

"This live coverage of Live Earth was brought to you by Chevy".

If that's not clear enough, we have nothing left to talk about.

Gore is as wrong as the IPCC is, and both are the completely and gloriously wrong parties to hand this award to for global warming. They fail in every sense there is. And hereby, so does the Nobel committee. And whatever still might have been done to prevent the worst outcomes, fades ever further into the distance, receding beyond horizons. It's not as if there were no other candidates with a connection to the subject. There are activists like Sheila Watt-Cloutier, and there are scientists like James Hansen.

The one word that truly fits the occassion is perverse.

It's amazing Hansen was passed over for the prize.

Giving Hansen the prize would have been my choice for this years prize, as the theme seems to be AGW, but that's not the way the system works. The peace prize is a tool for the nobel comittee to highlight something they feel is important, and that is in some way related to peace. Last year it was microcredit and economic development among the extremely poor, before that nuclear proliferation.

This year it's global warming. I have not seen Gore's movie, but a lot of people have. Gore is very famous, and the comittee decided that awarding the prize to him would get the most bang for the buck when it comes to publicity. The fact that he is just an ordinary politician and that the IPCC seems to be always hopelessly outdated doesn't matter, because most people doesn't know that.

Personally I believe Norway should give the prize back to sweden, the reason we got to hand it out in the first place was that Norway hadn't started a war in modern times, and it probably seemed like a nice gesture towards the Swe-Nor union's "little brother". After Norway went to war in Iraq and Afghanistan I don't see how we can credibly hand out this prize.

After Norway went to war in Iraq and Afghanistan I don't see how we can credibly hand out this prize.

Well, it is only fitting that the prize is awarded by the wrong people to the wrong people. That is an excellent way to make sure the wrong message is delivered.

Fortunately, I'm not the only one who sees the perversity.

Sharon Astyk wrote this morning:

Well, Al Gore and the IPCC won the Nobel Prize, something I'm more than a little ambivalent about. On the one hand, they both did an enormous amount to draw attention to climate change, and that's really important.

On the other hand, in re: Al Gore, I'm reminded of what Tom Lehrer said when Henry Kissinger was given the Nobel Peace Prize, that it made political satire obsolete.

I mean the man was a participant in the Clinton policies that, among other things, allowed half a million kids in Iraq to die from sanctions.

But then again, I would have thought "never was a Nazi" was a criteria for Pope, and that's clearly untrue. And obviously the "never was a mass murderer" bar for the Nobel Peace Prize, if it ever existed, is long since broken. Probably my standards are too high.

I think you misjudge him. I have evolved (devolved?) to a realist (i.e. doomer) point of view, as I do not see any "solution" that would result in making our present lives and lifestyles viable again. But painting a picture of what I think is coming our way would never work, even though I really believe it is true. The fact is that with regard to climate change, the trigger has already been pulled, and the changes are already locked in for the remainder of my natural life, and that of my children as well. But we could still help change things for the longer range, and that is worth while.

To my thinking, the discussion should really be moving to mitigation strategies, as opposed to prevention, but even there I see many problems that appear to be unsolvable. Nonetheless, how can we possibly move to a discussion of mitigation, when people still deny the possibility of anything happening? Gore's efforts are targeted at the mainstream center, and I think they are well targeted too. Al Gore is clearly a bright man, and he has been thinking about these issues for a very long time. He has access to all of this information, and I think the odds that he might fail to understand the implications are slim. But he could not possibly come out and show the more dire situation reflected by reality to the masses. The blowback would destroy the message and the messenger, and nothing would be accomplished.

So what can he accomplish? I do not know, but somehow I cannot help but feel it is right to let people know the truth, even if you don't believe they'll do anything useful with it, and even if there isn't anything useful they can do with it. And the masses will need to have their truth dispensed in small doses before they are receptive to the whole picture.

Where have we been fighting? Oh, Somalia, under great stress due to climate change, and Afghanistan, facing the same?

There is a very strong correlation between climate change that affects humans and humans affecting those around them. Any assertion to the contrary is purely Faux Noise style stupidity in motion ...

I seem to recall a Pentagon report which predicted global climate change in the future, where "Once again, warfare would define human life."

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0222-01.htm

Oh, and there's this:

Gore climate film's 'nine errors'

This is one of them:

Mr Gore's assertion that a sea-level rise of up to 20 feet would be caused by melting of ice in either West Antarctica or Greenland "in the near future". The judge said this was "distinctly alarmist" and it was common ground that if Greenland's ice melted it would release this amount of water - "but only after, and over, millennia".

I don't really blame the judge; the science is moving so fast in this area. But 20' is looking like it's way conservative.

Can we have that judge stand down on the beach and litigate the tide away?

Like that medieval king, whatsisname...

The problem will solve itself.
But not in a nice way.

Canute

Have you read The nine alleged errors in the film?

This judge's ancestor filled the Ozzie Penal Colony with
people stealing loaves of bread.

Exact same mentality.

1-He agreed that if Greenland melted it would release this amount of water - "but only after, and over, millennia"

1a-IPCC says Arctic to be ice free by 2013.

2-Pacific atolls "are being inundated because of anthropogenic global warming" but the judge ruled there was 2a-Leader of imperiled Maldives issues stark warning on sea level rise.
www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/04/news/maldives.php - 45k

3-the judge said that it was "very unlikely" that the Ocean Conveyor, also known as the Meridional Overturning Circulation, would shut down in the future, though it might slow down.

3a-"very unlikely" is a legal term?

4-The judge said that, although there was general scientific agreement that there was a connection, "the two graphs do not establish what Mr Gore asserts".
4a-proof that the judge is into obfuscation.

And on and on. Grasping at straws the Old Guard
slowly dies off.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

I assume he was just repeating what the scientist witnesses told him.

I don't know how it works in the UK, but in the US, the whole "expert witness" thing is nauseating. A lot of the "experts" don't know much about anything, except how to get lawyers to pay them big bucks to say whatever will help their case. And the judges and juries don't know enough to tell who's the more reliable "expert."

Heck, juries are chosen for their ignorance. I was once rejected for jury duty, on the grounds that I was an engineer. What's wrong with being an engineer? They were afraid I would rely on my own expertise, rather than accept the expert witnesses' testimony unquestioningly. (And they had very good reason to fear that. ;-)

I assume he was just repeating what the scientist witnesses told him.

(Because I can refute the 9 "errors" off the top of my head.)

Then the judge is being bought off by BP.

But I curse this judge and the Media for equating this
verdict with proof of being alarmist.

But we move on as does Mother Earth.

Non Linear is now the order of the day.

From PO, to Tipping Point in Climate, to Peak Grain,
to Peak Population.

The Black Swan floats into view ina ll her glory:

Under the NEB predictions, Canadian gas supplies will shrink to a range between 14.5 bcf/d to 15.8 bcf a day during 2007 to 2009. The flow of natural gas from Western Canada will decline to 13.7 bcf/d, from 16.2 bcf/d during the same period.

Daily output at Mexico's biggest oil field, Cantarell, highlights the problem. Production there dropped by a staggering half a million barrels in the last 18 months, to 1.5-million barrels from 2-million. Once the world's second-biggest oil field, it is expected to continue losing production, down to as little as 600,000 barrels a day by 2013.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071012/crop_report.html?.v=1

USDA: Wheat Stockpiles Shrinking Fast
Friday October 12, 9:21 am ET
U.S. Wheat Stockpiles Poised to Fall to Lowest in 59 Years on Robust Foreign Demand, USDA Says

And the Big Lie continues out of Australia:

Wheat exports lie in WA crops after welcome rain

Geoff Easdown-this guy must be the Judith Miller of Ozzieland-;}

September 25, 2007 12:00am

THE nation's biggest wheat-growing region has been given a much welcome drink after a rain squall passed across a large part of the Western Australian wheatbelt yesterday.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22475335-664,00.html

What's really happening:

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=159&ContentID=42146

Drought continues to eat into wheat crop
2nd October 2007, 11:45 WST

Even the banks are praying for rain.

The National Australia Bank today warned of a “desperate” need for rain across much of the nation’s farm lands.

Economist Skye Dixon warned the outlook for the wheat crop, already in great stress, was only getting worse.

Ozzie satellite Infrared:

http://www.bom.gov.au/gms/IDE00005.200710121430.shtml

Not a cloud in the sky. Maybe 7 million tons.

BTW-you're doing great work, Leanan.

Yours,
James

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

Yes, non-linear does indeed seem to be the order of the day.

As I point out (and this just infuriates some people): "The numbers and the laws of physics do not care one wit what you or I think about them or whatever meaning is assigned to them or to the person discussing them.

They simple are and that's really all you need to know."

Yes, I agree about jury duty. I and a friend of mine, on different summons, were also dismissed due to education.

I made the point in the Marie Antoinette thread that just accelerating melting will release increasing amounts of water, steadily flooding coastlines over the next 15 years, yielding steady, ongoing damage.

If massive parts of the ice sheet break apart and suddenly slide off the land into the ocean, we can expect a series of destructive tidal waves, punctuating sudden large rises in sea level, likely killing millions worldwide living near coastlines, leaving tens of millions more suddenly homeless and jobless, leaving businesses large and small in ruin, possibly bankrupting the insurance industry or crushing the economy.

If peak oil doesn't do that first.

Hmmm... what would one well placed suitcase nuke be able to do to the ice shelf? One nuke can destroy a city center and contaminate a wide area but sticking it where it can cause a huge area of ice to crash into the ocean seems like it would exponentionally increase the damage. Terrorists seem to really like methods that leverage into higher degrees of damage.

Of course I could be way off on scale here about the force needed to cause such an event. I just remember a few years ago talk of part of the Canary Islands possibly breaking off and causing a tidal wave that would wipe out the eastcoast of North America.

Hello EngineerAU,

Interesting theory, but a suitcase nuke is not needed. My speculative prediction is that Mother Nature is working just fine with her Climate Change Toolset to collapse most of the Ross Ice Shelf in the next five years or less. The collapse of the Larsen Ice Shelf was just a preview of worse things to come.

Once this floating shelf is gone: the ice in the subsea Bentley Subglacial Trench [basically the size of Mexico] is free to fracture to pieces. Then the whole of the WAIS is free to slip and slide away downhill to the ever-rising sea level.

The downthread link to a graphical tool on sea level is fascinating [my thxs to the poster]. The damage from surface saltwater encroachment will be bad enough on its own, but the tool doesn't show how rising sea levels will turn many aquifers brackish. I posted much earlier on how aquifer depletion in Hermosillo, Mexico combined with porous sedimentary layers extending into the ocean have allowed seawater to migrate miles inland.

IMO, it would be interesting to have some expert hydrologists/geologists evalute our coastlines for subsurface saltwater intrusion. Could the sedimentary layers in the GoM make many freshwater aquifers far inland useless if sea levels rise 5 meters? How about the Colorado River Delta: could the Salton Sea and even Death Valley see saltwater seepage. How far would subsurface seawater migrate into the Saramento Delta? Other areas of aquifer concern: Florida aquifers, Chesapeake Bay, etc.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Excellent thoughts, as always, Bob. Time to get those notepads on desalination ideas again, the ones where power plants can no longer provide sufficient electricity.

Yeah, well, delta G still equals delta H minus T delta S, so it'll take energy, lots of it, to desalinate water, notepad notions notwithstanding.

This would be a very serious problem in FL, Bob. The soil is very porous (measured in feet of water movement per day typically) and we get virtually all of our water from aquifers. Already there has been saltwater intrusion to the point that the Cocoa Beach water treatment plant (which just pumps groundwater) is located a good 30 miles to the west in Orange County.

Actually, did ANYBODY on this site notice that ANTARCTIC sea ice is at an all-time maximum? The collapse of the Southern ice shelfs will take a bit longer I suppose...

Is there a reason you provide no proof for this statement?

Because anybody actually reading CRYOSPHERE TODAY would see it. Go to Cryosphere Today, http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
(the same site with the off-the-charts graph of Arctic sea ice mentioned upthread)and scroll down through the announcements until you get to

UPDATE: Monday, October 1, 2007 - Record SH sea ice maximum and NH sea ice minimum

Just when you thought this season's cryosphere couldn't be more strange .... The Southern Hemisphere sea ice area narrowly surpassed the previous historic maximum of 16.03 million sq. km to 16.17 million sq. km. The observed sea ice record in the Southern Hemisphere (1979-present) is not as long as the Northern Hemisphere. Prior to the satellite era, direct observations of the SH sea ice edge were sporadic.

therefore, in the Arctic: high temperature =>sea ice and glaciers melt
in the Antarctic: low temperature => lots of sea ice, little melting of glaciers, West Antarctic will not "collapse" any time soon
Conclusion: total melt until 2100 will be more than people thought a few years ago, but less than the prophets of doom predict (Alpha Male Prophet of Doom was actually the name of one of the posters a few months ago)