DrumBeat: October 11, 2007
Posted by Leanan on October 11, 2007 - 9:06am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Australian government report: Peak oil is real, get ready
“The focus of the report was the concept of peak oil – the point at which maximum world oil production is reached - which is predicted to lead to shortages and consequent significant price increases.“If nothing changes in our energy mix and demand patterns after that point, we can expect significant liquid fuel price increases, and price increases in those things that are made from oil such as fertilizer and plastics and those things that rely on oil such as agriculture, construction and transport.
“The Taskforce sought to present the most likely time frame for peak oil, to assess its impact on the mining, transport and primary industry sectors, and then recommend options to minimise the impact on Queensland.
“The report concludes that the overwhelming evidence is that world oil production will peak within the next 10 years.
UN rapporteur calls for biofuel moratorium
Only two years ago, with the twin spectres of peak oil prices and climate change looming, biofuels seemed the ideal alternative energy.Now it is the poor who have to contend with the flip side of biofuels: spiralling cereal prices, say experts.
Waking up to the truths of oil’s past, present and future
THE makers of A Crude Awakening mince their words only slightly, describing their investigation of the peak oil phenomenon as “a naïve quest to examine the world’s dependency on fossil fuels” and the results as “a bit of a downer”.But Basil Gelpke and Ray McCormack have the look of film makers who have heard all the questions before — and answered most of them — in the three years since they completed the film. But installed in a modish glass room in a London advertising agency they give every impression of being as enthusiastic about their project now as they were then.
Olympics Clean Air Push Dampens Beijing Fuel Demand
Oil traders counting on a one-off leap in Chinese oil demand ahead of next year's Olympics Games, hosted by Beijing, may be disappointed as plans to boost air quality will instead cut fuel use in the capital.
A major downturn in drilling for natural gas in Western Canada will shrink Canadian supplies of the clean-burning fuel by as much as 15% in the next two years, the National Energy Board predicted yesterday.Canada's energy regulator said it expects Canadian production to plummet to as little as 14.5 billion cubic feet a day by 2009, revising earlier predictions that gas deliverability would stay flat at around 17 bcf/d, or roughly where it has been since 2000.
Petrodollars fuel rally in U.S. government bonds
The biggest quarterly rally for U.S. government securities in five years is getting an extraordinary lift from the burgeoning reinvestment of petrodollars by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Detection teams will dip cars in supermarket car parks and petrol stations in a bid to catch motorists running on red and green diesel.The UK-wide operation is being launched because a test run by Revenue and Customs recently found that one in five diesel cars was running on illegal fuels.
India: No fuel hike; but bonds to help oil firms
The Indian government has decided not to hike fuel prices despite the fact that oil companies have been accumulating losses thanks global crude oil price rise.
Taiwan: Decline in gas sales as drivers complain of cost
Gasoline sales have declined slowly amid a rise in gas prices and driver complaints about rising costs at the pumps.According to local media, the main reasons behind a decline in fuel sales are the completion of the Taiwan High Speed Rail (THSR), drivers' desire to save money, and a recession in Taiwan's economy.
Australia: MP says Bruce Hwy, fuel prices behind food price rise
The Member for Thuringowa, Craig Wallace, says the Bruce Highway and petrol prices are to blame for a steep increase in the cost of food in north Queensland.Queensland Health Minister Stephen Robertson says the average cost of a basket of healthy food has risen by 54 per cent in the region since the year 2000.
Man charged in theft of $20,000 in gas
A Henrico County man yesterday was indicted for larceny stemming from what Richmond prosecutors say was the theft of more than $20,000 in gas through city fuel cards issued to the Richmond Ambulance Authority.
SCOTS customers are set to reap the benefits after energy giants sparked a price war.Two of the country's biggest power suppliers have cut charges in a fight to stay at the top of internet price comparison websites.
It could see customers' bills slashed during what is forecast to be the coldest winters in years.
The public face of nuclear power in the U.S.
I won't use the word energy independence because I don't think the country will ever really get to energy independence, but secure is a different matter. The fuel necessary for nuclear generation comes either domestically or from friends like Canada, Australia--not exactly the same group of people that provide (fossil fuels).
South Korea to put $17 mln into Canada uranium project
A South Korean consortium led by Hanwha Corp. plans to invest 16 billion won ($17.46 million) in a Canadian uranium project, South Korea's energy ministry said on Thursday.
Wicomico County Public Works Director Rai Sharma unveiled the Lower Shore's first gas-to-energy power plant to the public Wednesday morning and generate 6 megawatts of electricity daily for local use.
A sea change: the wind farm revolution
Giant turbines are rapidly becoming a feature of the landscape. And now a wave of applications is poised to make Britain the world leader in offshore wind power generation. But there's one hurdle in the way of this breakthrough for renewable energy: bureaucracy.
Ethanol co-products more valuable for fuel
When looking at the energy balance in ethanol production it is more effective to use its co-product DDGS as a fuel source than to sell it for animal feed, concludes Nicholas Zeman in the latest issue of Ethanol Producer magazine.
UK Coal agrees five-year supply deal with Eon
UK Coal has capitalised on record prices for the fuel as it agreed to supply almost six million tonnes to Eon, Europe's largest energy group, in a five-year deal understood to be worth about £350m.
Report links energy crisis to security
An energy crisis could pose security risks for Australia by pushing fragile states in the region towards collapse, a report has warned.The Australian Strategic Policy Institute said in the report that such a threat should be factored into foreign and defence policy.
It said the increasing dependence of the world on energy from unstable regions like the Middle East meant obtaining an adequate supply of affordable energy would become a bigger part of most nations' security plans.
Shell Says Russia's Offshore Reserves Need Foreign Energy Majors
Royal Dutch Shell said Russia needs foreign expertise and investment if it is to profit fully from offshore oil and gas reserves estimated to be seven times larger than those in the North Sea.
China drives shipping costs to record high
The cost of shipping raw materials such as iron ore and coal has soared to a new record as the economic boom in developing economies like China sucks in natural resources to fuel their breakneck industrialisation.
Motorists in Venezuelan city panic after fuel shortage
Venezuelans formed long lines yesterday to buy gasoline in a major provincial city after outages at a refinery prompted rare worries of supply shortages in one of the world's largest oil exporters.
The Roman Catholic Church in Manicaland says the shortage of fuel in the country is crippling its relief and pastoral work in and outside the eastern border city."This is a very serious matter. We have failed to hold Sunday outstation mass for months in areas such as Himalaya. Our priests cannot access the areas as we do not have fuel," said Bishop Patrick Mutume this week.
Low-cost, hurricane-proof housing made with ecomaterials
The concept covers a broad range of building materials, whose common denominator is the use of local raw materials or the recycling of waste products like sugar cane bagasse.Strong results have been obtained locally with micro-concrete roofing tiles, pozzolana (CP-40) cement -- named for the volcanic ash of the Pozzuoli volcano in Italy -- made with the ashes of sugar cane straw, pre-cast hollow concrete blocks in which Portland cement has been partially replaced by CP-40, and low-energy fired clay bricks using bio-waste products as fuel.
CP-40 is an alternative binder that requires less energy than traditional Portland cement and therefore reduces climate changing carbon dioxide emissions.
Rough waters ahead for the ferry system
Leo von Scheben, the Commissioner of the Department of Transportation and Public Facilities, told the Marine Transportation Advisory Board that the ferry service faces many challenges in the years ahead as state oil revenue declines, federal dollars dry up and prices for construction and materials skyrocket, placing more stress on the state general fund. Fuel and labor costs for the ferries also have been on the rise.
Vehicle User Groups Call for Fuel Economy Gains That Don't Ignore Consumer Transportation Needs
A U.S. Congressman, a former U.S. Secretary of Transportation, and representatives of vehicle users groups urged Congress to set realistic fuel economy goals that do not unreasonably raise prices nor diminish the utility of popular motor vehicles that many consumers need.
Some Say Coal To Liquid Fuel Is A National Need
Southern States Energy Board Director Ken Nemeth says if we don't find a way to create our own fuel and be less dependent on foreign countries, we could see an energy crisis in the future. He wants to see a coal to liquid fuel plant in Eastern Kentucky and says it will have zero emissions, but environmentalists don't think that's the answer.
Low prices idle North Dakota ethanol plant
According to Alchem President Harold Newman, the high cost of corn and low price of fuel ethanol have caused unfavorable market conditions and will lead to the shutdown which will last until ethanol prices rebound. Although the shutdown is indefinite, company officials say they are hopeful the plant can reopen by the beginning of 2008.
Uganda Pres: Oil Discovery Blessing, Instead of Curse to the Country
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has refuted allegations that oil discovery in the western region could be a curse to the landlocked country, saying the oil revenues would be used to fast track development.
Saudi meets OPEC pledge with more oil to Asia
Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia will raise crude sales to major Asian refiners by a tenth in November, making good on OPEC's pledge to boost output in an effort to cool prices, industry sources said on Thursday....Sources at two Japanese refiners and one in South Korea said Aramco would supply the entire volume agreed under the refiners' annual contract, the first 100 percent allocation in a year.
Alternative Fuel Vehicle Institute: From the Executive Director
The average commuter drives 50 miles round-trip. Most cities in the United States are automobile cities, meaning they have sprawled outward from a city center making it much easier to drive than take mass transit or walk. Change won’t come easily from the public or from fleets. Fleets, whether they are distributing goods from a new ship that has just delivered merchandise from China, or the U.S. Postal Service distributing mail throughout the country, need reliable transportation. Isn’t cleaner, more fuel efficient, transportation today better than waiting for a silver bullet technology or energy source that may never come? Worse yet, is it really an option to continue polluting and gobbling up oil until some climactic event grounds us to a halt?
CoSERG welcomed the report released last week “Newquay Airport Expansion: The Case Examined” by Groundswell analysing the issue of expanding Newquay airport. The report concludes that “in the light of the current threat of peak oil, the damage to the environment, and the questionably contribution to Cornwall’s economy the case for expansion is not made. Moreover the plans send a clear signal that Cornwall does not take climate change seriously.”
Some recent SUVs less safe than cars
Crash tests of some popular midsize sport utility vehicles turned in an unexpectedly mixed performance in side-impact tests, a leading insurance group said on Thursday.The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety found some late-model SUVs performed worse than cars, a result that challenges a belief among consumers that sport utility occupants are safer in some crashes because they are heavier than cars and occupants are seated higher.
Guyana Vows no Special Favors for Canadian Oil Company
President Bharrat Jagdeo said Tuesday that Canada's CGX Energy would not have an edge over Spain's Repsol-YPF and other foreign oil firms because it provided $8.9 million to fund Guyana's ultimately successful litigation with neighboring Suriname over the two countries' maritime boundary."I am very grateful to CGX for footing the bill because it didn't come from the treasury, but that doesn't mean that CGX has any preferences in terms of our agreements," Jagdeo said.
Biofuels plans may cause water shortages
China's and India's plans to produce more biofuels could cause shortages of water, which is needed for crops to feed their growing populations, according to study results released Thursday.
U.S. ethanol rush may harm water supplies: report
The U.S. ethanol rush could drain drinking water supplies in parts of the country because corn -- a key source of the country's alternative fuel -- requires vast quantities of water for irrigation, the National Research Council reported on Wednesday.
The Peak Oil Crisis: Confusion
So what does peak oil have to say about all this? While usually looking at the supply side of the equation, many following peak oil are starting to worry that a major recession could reduce demand so much that the fact of global oil depletion will get lost in the clutter and that efforts to mitigate falling oil production will be put off until it is too late.Those of us who are reading the fine print in U.S. government and OECD projections for the oil markets have noted a change in tone in recent months. Earlier this week, the U.S.’s Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for October. Keep in mind that one of the EIA’s unstated “prime directives” is not to scare the pants off Wall Street with loose talk of oil shortages. If one reads between the lines however, the report paints a rather pessimistic outlook for the year ahead.
Record oil prices seen denting demand
World oil demand will grow more slowly than expected in the fourth quarter as record-high oil prices prompt some consumers to seek alternatives, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.The IEA, adviser to industrialized countries, said in its monthly Oil Market Report demand will rise by 2.03 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter from a year ago, 320,000 bpd less than previously expected.
Peak Oil Calls for Societal Change – US Expert
Peak oil and climate change, are very real threats to human society and not something we can pass off to the next generation, says one of the world's foremost peak oil experts.Peak oil educator and Research Fellow of the Carbon Institute of Post Carbon Institute Richard Heinberg was speaking to at a lecture hosted by The Engineers for Social Responsibility, Greens on Campus and the Green Party at Auckland University on Wednesday night.
BP chief unveils 'fundamental shift' for troubled oil major
BP chief executive Tony Hayward has set out his plans to improve the oil giant's poor performance by tackling "unacceptably high overhead costs" and slimming the business to two core divisions.In an emailed message to staff worldwide, Mr Hayward said several layers of management will be stripped out and many people will be re-deployed to front line operations with the aim of "simplifying how the company is structured and run."
In short, Mr Hayward, said: "What we are doing represents a fundamental shift in how BP works."
Valero feels pinch from lower refining margins
Valero Energy, the US's biggest refinery, said on Wednesday that its third-quarter earnings will be less than the market has been expecting because the cost of refined products is not keeping pace with rising costs of crude oil.
CNOOC Limited: Future Oil Supermajor
Overall, CNOOC’s future growth prospects are very positive -- particularly in international areas-- and therefore the company still represents good value at the current date of this writing over the intermediate to long term.
A move is on across the USA to unsnarl interstate highways where escalating truck traffic is adding to congestion and rattling drivers of passenger cars.Truck-only lanes and a plan to divert some truck cargo to ships along the Atlantic Coast are among the initiatives getting scrutiny from state and federal agencies. About 75,000 more big rigs cruise onto already crowded highways every year.
Study: Rise in humidity caused by humans
With global warming, the world isn't just getting hotter — it's getting stickier, due to humidity. And people are to blame, according to a study based on computer models published Thursday.
The big melt: lessons from the Arctic summer of 2007

The Arctic sea ice is disintegrating "100 years ahead of schedule", having dropped 22% this year below the previous minimum low, and it may completely disappear as early as the northern summer of 2013. This is far beyond the predictions of the International Panel on Climate Change and is an example of global warming impacts happening at lower temperature increases and more quickly than projected. What are the lessons from the Arctic summer of 2007?



Note in the BP article above how "troops will be deployed to the front lines".
Amazing. Every oil major had district and regional offices about 20 years ago... then they all pulled back to Houston. Many 100 billion dollars in value were created by the independents that backfilled them on the front lines. Now they are moving back.
I wonder how well they will fill the ranks on today's "front lines". Certainly offers the smart young college grad some interesting lifestyle opportunities.
There is nothing new under the sun.
FF
I don't think they are talking about Lafayette, Ardmore, Cushing and Tulsa. They are talking about taking managers and demoting them back to the level of the people they are currently managing.
I just took retirement and started consulting. I am one who has self-re-deployed. I was exploration director for China, but now, I am a development geophysicist, just picking records in front of a work station. Life is wonderful.
http://home.entouch.net/dmd/Oilcrisis.htm
Weekly Petro Report...I have a bad feeling about it...don't know why.
Here is what analysts are expecting:
Fairly dismall estimate, given the build that is needed.
CRUDE up above $82 already this AM.
And here's what they got:
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending October 5, 2007
Why are distillate inventories decreasing? Doesn't that include heating oil? Shouldn't they be building stocks this time of year?
I thought this section was interesting:
Gasoline and Jet fuel demand down from last year.
My thoughts exactly.
Crude down as well!
Gasoline desperately needed a boost, maybe they diverted some production?
However, Distillates are very low over last year - 13.2 MILLION barrels lower than last year. 3.14 production days less.
And propane, which had a small build, is still 10.7 Million barrels lower than 2006.
UP this week to 74 Million barrels less petroleum stock than 2006, in the US. (Approx. 35 VLCC tankers worth)
Yeah right, it's speculators. (sorry carryover from previous posts - baggage)
There was an almost palpable sense of panic among the talking heads on CNBC this morning regarding the oil market. One of the talking heads said something along the following lines:
Proposed reasons for high oil prices range from increasing demand worldwide to geopolitical concerns. (Let's see, what's missing from this list?)
They then went on to propose a third reason. (Declining export capacity perhaps? Nope.)
They blamed high oil prices on the DOE's ongoing efforts to replenish the SPR. (Anything but declining oil exports.)
It gets a bit frustrating. Apparently Schlesinger, of all people, told the ASPO crowd in Cork that "we are all peakists now", and there are certainly signs that smart people are increasingly seeing how the writing's on the wall. Yet I find that the business press goes to unbelievable lengths to deny what is so obvious to most of us. Similarly, we hear more or less upbeat assessments of the economy, while there is little to indicate that things might NOT be horribly wrong in more than a few ways.
Any MSM organisation that needs to make a profit is only going to tell good news to the end user who will ultimately actually pay for the service. MSM need repeat business or they fail.
Don't blame MSM, they know their market - the punters don't want to know about anything bad - nobody makes a living selling things people don't want, it's as simple as that.
The MSM only give 'bad' news that has happened, not bad news about things that 'may' happen in the future - if you expect more, sadly, I fear you will be disapointed.
The reality of the way MSM operates is very bad news for any mitigation of peak oil, AGW etc.
Politicians are from the same mold, they only ever react to things that everybody can see and that they can't deny ... even then, they are way too slow if we did actually have a peak in 2005, as seems likely.
Xeroid.
I was talking to a friend of mine who is a *very* high-level consultant to one of the oil supermajors. He told me that a recent strategy meeting someone brought up the idea of peak oil. The consensus of the room was apparently "yup, this is pretty much happening now or soon". I said to him - "Didn't anybody say 'Don't worry, we can increase recovery factors' or 'Don't worry Saudi will pump lots more'?" His answer - no. I was staggered that there didn't seem to have been any serious resistance to an idea that the oil majors will just not countenance in public.
Cuchulainn
Job requirements; Must have good, 'Front-Office' appearance. (read, Poker-face)
Yeah, it seems that by now honest people admit it, no matter how annoying it may be. So what the f*** is wrong with the business press??
all you have to do is read the papers after 1929 market crash - that say the same things back then that MSM would say now......its a memorized prayer not a rational discussion
Oil jumps nearly $3 as supplies fall
This article gives the lowdown on why the market has reacted with such a steep hike:
http://www.easybourse.com/Website/dynamic/News.php?NewsID=317172
Are we headed for an another all-time WTI high today ?
Leanan,
When did you see this weekly EIA report? I thought they came out at 10:30 EDT, but it looks like you posted it before then. The time tag on my computer says 9:26 (CDT).
Test
TOD seems to be about 5 mins slow
Pay no attention to the time stamps on the posts. The server clock is wrong.
OK, but what about the man behind the curtain with his hands on the levers? [A new conspiracy theory in the making?] :<)
It looks like 1.7M barrels have been made into gasoline, but not heating oil. Gasoline prices are down. Is it simply that they have elected to continue producing gasoline, instead of switching to more heating oil, otherwise the price of gasoline might rise? Of course this is a conspiracy theory, but it is also a simple explanation for what it looks like.
Well...if temps stay high...this might be a safe bet. It is however turning colder now across the country. It may have been a bad decision. As usual, time will tell.
I was reviewing the oil/gasoline weekly structure the other day and noted that this "pattern" for oil and the pattern for gasoline look a lot like 2004.
Granted we haven't had the hurricane activity of 2004. But what we have had is separation of oil costs from weekly gasoline prices.
From 1991 until early July 2004, gasoline and oil prices were well-correlated. They still are from a statistical standpoint, but gasoline rapidly caught up with oil prices this spring (using 1992 average cost for each as a value of 1.0), but then oil prices climbed after a short pause while gasoline prices fell (this while gasoline inventories were at recent historic lows). If the pattern for 2007 is similar to 2004 (in 2004 that rapid growth of supply was beginning to slow), then we have several more weeks or increased oil prices before demand might decline enough to lower oil prices.
Gasoline prices seem, for whatever reason, intentionally low compared to the price of oil. If 2004 is any guide (and it might not be depending upon stocks), gasoline prices would be expected to finally climb into November, before showing a brief winter decline. Gasoline prices are already above the average for 2006 and unless gasoline suddenly dropped to $1.50/gallon, it's going to remain higher (as an average).
We'll see in a few minutes how things go.
Oil stocks down by 1.7 million barrels, gasoline stocks up by 1.7 million barrels , refinery capacity at 87.8. Distillate fell by 600,000 BBLs.
Best guess (by me): the US supply is still wandering around someplace. Oil prices to remain high for another week or two.
Isn't this the wrong time of year for distillates to be falling ?
Best Hopes for my 240D when I need to fill up 2 months from now,
Alan
Yes, it is the wrong time.
No worries, mate. Full speed ahead.
I'm not worried at all.
I think there's going to be GW induced tropical weather coming to the US this winter!
Negative. My bet is mega-cold winter once it finally comes, although I anticipate it to be a bit delayed in coming. :)
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com/)
A couple of things here:
Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA restricted the sale of fuel to gasoline stations because of problems at the 135,000 barrel per day El Palito refinery that usually supplies the area, Diana Santiago, the head of the local gasoline chamber, said.
A union worker at El Palito said the refinery had not restarted after a power outage last week, which he said caused the supply problems. The lines stretched from gas stations into city streets disrupting traffic, residents said. Some stations ran out and many drivers lined up before dawn to obtain fuel in a country that is one of the largest US oil suppliers.
"People are really nervous. There are too many lines and many stations are running out and closing," said Elimir Hernandez, a truck driver who waited more than an hour for fuel.
Last week, PDVSA said it took key units at the El Palito refinery offline due to a power outage.
The company has still not restarted the units, a union official with knowledge of the operations said. A PDVSA refinery official declined to confirm if the units were online, although it has guaranteed supplies would be maintained. There have been repeated accidents, technical failures and power outages disrupting oil operations in the last few years."
OK. That's Venezuela. They don't know what they're doin?
But what about this?
Houston (Platts)--8Oct2007
Valero's 135,000 b/d Wilmington refinery restarted as planned over the
weekend after a shutdown last week, and by Monday was operating normally,
company spokesman Bill Day said.
The refinery was idled October 3 due to a power failure in the area that
had also knocked ConocoPhillips' 139,000 b/d Wilmington refinery out of
service.
Portions of that refinery remain offline and it was running at reduced
rates, a ConocoPhillips spokeswoman said earlier Monday (1627 GMT).
--Matthew Cook, matthew_cook@platts.com
http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/234499446.shtml
Prudhoe Bay production began the month at 300,932 bpd, dropped to 183,417 bpd on Sept. 13 and was only back up to 242,857 bpd at the end of the month, averaging 235,650 bpd in September, compared to 300,308 bpd in August, a drop of 21.5 percent. Prudhoe production includes western satellites Midnight Sun, Aurora, Polaris, Borealis and Orion.
Question? How come Venezuela gets badly hit on a 135 K
Refinery out for a week, but CA and the rest of the US
continue boosting gasoline after two 300 k Wilmington
Refineries have been out for a week (w/ ConocoPhillips'
still not completely up?)
And how are we making up for Prudhoe/Cantarell?
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
uhh-- abiotic oil, I believe. The U.S. has a pipeline to the mantle (or maybe it's the outer core) which is actually made of oil, and until the proper technology was discovered by the Russians (who now seem to have forgotten how to make it work) that oil just had to seep up into granite reservoirs. Now the smart U.S. engineers can just go get it directly and pump it to your local gas station.
LMAO-thanks for that.
But on a more serious note (while I'm still laughin' 8D) to all:
No fuel for export in 2008
According to the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, fuel for export declined from 112,710 bpd in 2000 to 78,450 bpd in 2004 (File Photo)
Analysts estimate that if any domestic oil refinery faced operational problems cutting production by 10 percent, Pdvsa would be forced to import gasoline components or finished fuels.
With the latest 135k refinery down, Venezuela just
hit WT's ELM.
WTI Crude at $83.30.
And -speaking of Soviet Abiotic Command Economies-US Gasoline must be in Soviet Command Economy Mode
now.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
Just a reminder I've been banging the drum so to speak on the concept of double export land this is the re-exporting of finished oil products such as gasoline etc. In my opinion the double export land will decrease much faster than WT crude oil export land model and will represent the canary in the coal mine so to speak for global declines in exports. So far as a leading indicator of WT export land model it seems to be doing pretty good. The next stage is when overall refining capacity is significantly over overall oil supply. I think we are at that point or very close now and we should be there by this summer.
So for sure this summer I think two peak oil conditions will exist.
1.) Exports of finished products such as gasoline will be curtailed
2.) Refining capacity will be greater than supply and we may find certain countries actually shutting in capacity thats no longer profitable because of high crude prices putting even more pressure on gasoline exports from the more efficient complex refiners.
Note how WT export land and the pressure of oil prices seems to interact in a negative manner with inefficient idled refinery capacity.
I'm pretty interested to see how the US which is heavily dependent on gasoline imports will handle this. Since I think we will see a fairly big spread between the cost of locally refined gasoline and imported gasoline. And of course what about Mexican gasoline exports from the US ?
I think it is actually much worse than that.
I'm waiting to hear what westexas and khebab have to say in their ASPO presentation on the Export Land Model (ELM).
I am fairly sure ELM has some very serious consequences for Europe.
Xeroid.
No, I think it's EVEN worse than THAT...
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain