DrumBeat: October 10, 2007
Posted by Leanan on October 10, 2007 - 9:00am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Is this what the world's coming to?
History is littered with lessons from once-budding civilizations that crashed from their peak of prosperity. From the Anasazi of the southwestern United States to the Mayans of Mesoamerica and the ancient dynasties of eastern China, environmental change has sounded the death knell throughout time for once-thriving civilizations already stressed by factors including high population growth, overexploitation of resources and excessive reliance on external trade. In many cases, severe drought or extreme cold has been enough to push societies to the brink of civil unrest, mass migration and warfare. Is this what the world's coming to?But it's not necessary to look that far back into history to see how environmental change can result in conflict and the breakdown of society.
Why Global Warming and Peak Oil are Irrelevant
Peak Oil is a “distraction” and global warming? Well, global warming will take care of itself.It’s the bottom line, stupid.
Amory Lovins makes these arguments, (without actually calling you stupid, and with a breathtaking whirlwind of statistics that he has — miraculously — cached in his brain) in the course of explaining why the energy source of the future is clean and limitless.
Because it’s no energy at all.
Five ex-communist countries sign oil pipeline deal bypassing Russia
Five former communist-bloc countries signed a deal Wednesday to extend an oil pipeline that bypasses Russia, in a move that could diversify supplies and cut Moscow's energy clout.The presidents of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Poland, Ukraine and host nation Lithuania looked on as government ministers and state oil company bosses inked an accord creating the "Sarmatia" consortium, which is to build the new network.
Oil jumps on news of Nigerian strike
Oil futures surged Wednesday in a late rally driven by news that workers at Chevron Corp. facilities in Nigeria had staged a surprise strike and by a report that demand for gasoline is up.
Nobel for ozone layer scientist
STOCKHOLM, Sweden (AP) -- Gerhard Ertl of Germany won the 2007 Nobel Prize in chemistry on Wednesday for studies of chemical reactions on solid surfaces, which are key to understanding questions like how pollution eats away at the ozone layer.Ertl's research laid the foundation of modern surface chemistry, which has helped explain how fuel cells produce energy without pollution, how catalytic converters clean up car exhaust and even why iron rusts, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said.
His work has paved the way for development of cleaner energy sources and will guide the development of fuel cells, said Astrid Graslund, secretary of the Nobel Committee for Chemistry.
BP Cuts Alaska Oil Output by 30,000 Barrels a Day After Fire
BP Plc, Europe's second-biggest oil company, cut production on Alaska's North Slope by 30,000 barrels a day following a fire, company spokesman Ronnie Chappell said....The fire occurred two months after officials at Alaska's Division of Fire and Life Safety ordered BP to improve its fire detection systems and maintenance of equipment on oil fields it operates. That order stemmed from an Aug. 6 fire.
BP also had three other fires in August as well as a flaring incident in September.
Australia approves Gorgon gas project
Australian officials gave the green light Wednesday to the giant Gorgon gas project off the coast of northwestern Australia, clearing the way for Chevron Corp. and its partners to develop the country's second liquefied natural gas plant — but with strict environmental conditions.
Oil, Israel, and America: The Root Cause of the Crisis
But the key factor in the calculus of what serves as the root cause of conflict between Iran and the United States is energy, namely Iran’s status as one of the world’s leading producers of oil and natural gas. The United States has, for some time now, placed a high emphasis on Middle Eastern and Central Asian oil and gas when it comes to determining future economic development trends. In a fossil-fuel driven global economy, energy resources have become one of the major factors in determining which nation or group of nations will be able to dominate not only economically, but also militarily and politically.
China "e" bikes silently drive lead demand
Every year, millions of Chinese are hitting the streets on "e" bikes - battery-powered contraptions that are increasingly popular as soaring fuel prices make traditional motorbikes and scooters expensive to drive.The bikes are getting bigger, faster and more glamorous - and the growing size of their batteries is soaking up increasing amounts of lead.
Big cities try to ease way for bicyclists
Cities are accelerating their efforts to encourage commuting on two wheels, putting bike racks where cars once parked, adding bike lanes and considering European-style bike-share programs to get residents out of their cars.
UK: Stretched for cash? Flog your car
With a credit crunch looming and budgets being stretched to the limit, you need look no further than your driveway for a sure fire way to shape up those finances.That car is your fastest depreciating asset that gets more expensive to maintain every year, and for what? Sure there are households that simply can’t function without one, but for many of us it’s little more than a convenience.
Auto industry told to focus on fuel efficiency
"Loss of market share and higher gas prices create an opportunity for the auto industry to reinvent itself. Those higher prices create an opportunity to design and sell more fuel-efficient vehicles."
Diesel Fuel Arrives in West Fargo
The fuel arrived from Montana last night at the Magellan terminal.Trucks were in line waiting for it. About 50 tankers got loads of fuel, which is destined for Cenex stations in the region.
“We’re actually in good shape in this company,” said Kent Satrang, general manager of Petro Serve USA, which includes several Cenex stations. “But it only lasts for five days, then we need more product.”The diesel shortage this summer and fall has been the worst Satrang has seen in 30 years.
George Monbiot: The new coal age
The government says it wants a low-carbon economy. Yet on a green hilltop in south Wales, despite huge opposition from locals, diggers have begun excavating what will be the largest opencast coal mine in Britain. Who let this happen?
International Paper revives plan to burn tires for fuel
The study of pollution control devices will likely take a year or more, Wadsworth said. After it installs the new device the company may request permission from New York state to do another test burn. Only after the results of that second test burn would the company seek permission to burn such fuels permanently, Wadsworth said.
Environmental campaigners have spoken out about more nuclear power stations being built in the UK on the 50th anniversary of the worst nuclear accident to occur in the west.Half a century ago today the graphite core of the British nuclear reactor at Windscale, now called Sellafield, caught fire and released substantial amounts of radioactive contamination into the surrounding area.
World grain supply not enough to produce bio fuels
After an initial enthusiasm the world has become aware that it is not capable of producing sufficient grain to feed its population and produce biofuels. The boom in biofuels in recent years has led to sharp rice in world grain prices, with widespread grave social repercussions. David Jackson, of Lmc International Ltd London, estimates that by 2015 a further 100 million hectares of crop production (half the size of Indonesia) will be needed to meet just 5% of vehicle consumption. But to obtain this, entire forests would be decimated.
U.S. mobilization needed on energy
As pollutants warm the Earth, potentates reap the rewards, and oil consumption is the tail that wags U.S. foreign policy. "In 2005 alone, the United States sent nearly $40 billion to the Persian Gulf region to purchase oil, even as we financed a war on terror," the authors write.
China may revive energy ministry in draft law
China may re-establish an energy ministry and a sector watchdog under a draft law that could be finalised by next year, sources said, as Beijing seeks to tighten control of the strategic sector and boost efficiency.
Local eaters, or "locavores," define their boundaries in various ways 100 miles from home is a common gauge. The Mathenys are defining local as within Ohio, which means one of the nation's largest breadbaskets is their shopping cart.
Technology Left in Venezuela by Exxon, Conoco May Aid Rivals
When Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and ConocoPhillips (COP) pulled out of projects in Venezuela, they left behind more than their rights to produce oil.The oil giants also abandoned technology and know-how that could fall into the hands of competitors eager to discover how to maximize production of heavy oil.
Trinidad and Tobago: Fuel shortage, panic buying follow protest action
INDUSTRIAL action at State-owned oil company Petrotrin yesterday and at the Trinidad and Tobago National Petroleum Marketing Company (NP) on the weekend has resulted in a shortage of fuel in south Trinidad and panic buying in the north.
Tapping a gas gusher in Indonesia
After a series of environmental, funding and supply contract problems, surging regional demand has given new impetus to Indonesia's US$6.5 billion Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, which with 14 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves represents one of the largest gas fields in all Asia.Energy Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said last week that the first LNG deliveries from the plant are now expected to start by the end of next year. The gas will help China, the second biggest investor in the ambitious project, to meet its surging energy demand while at the same time tap a valuable new fuel source to power Indonesia’s domestic economy.
U.S. Market Stability Spurs Shell's Gulf of Mexico Push
Shell Oil Co.'s eye-catching purchase of Gulf of Mexico leases last week flows from the company's confidence in the region's resources and stability, a top Shell executive said.
Show us the green, workers say
But these days, they're not talking about money. More people are willing to work only for employers whose environmental policies match their own credo for preserving the planet.
Saudi Arabia to Keep Europe Nov. Crude Supply Steady
Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, will keep its crude supply steady to Europe in November but is expected to boost shipments to Asia, industry sources said on Wednesday.An increase in supply would indicate that Saudi Arabia is following through on its pledge to raise crude oil output as of Nov. 1 as part of an OPEC agreement to lift production by 500,000 barrels per day.
US energy expert attacks airlines' bid to fly more Kiwis
Efforts by competing airlines to get more New Zealanders on the move are under attack by a visiting American energy expert for flying in the face of dwindling global oil reserves.Richard Heinberg, who argues in books such as his The Party's Over that the world is approaching or has already passed its oil production peak, says New Zealand's physical isolation and associated dependence on aviation make it especially vulnerable to high fuel prices.
The Grass Roots Syndrome - James Howard Kunstler
My personal view about this is apparently radical — though I am a man of modest habits and philosophy. My view is that the suburban project, per se, in the United States is over, finished. Like, totally. You can stick a fork in it. What you see is basically all that we're going to get. Not only do we not need anymore of it, but we have way too much of what is already on the ground. We don't need anymore suburban housing pods, and the ones already out there are going to hemorrhage value (and usefulness) as far ahead as anybody can imagine. We need more retail like we need 300-million holes in our heads. Ditto suburban office capacity. Ditto new roads and highways.
Energy, climate experts search for middle ground
Michael Economides, professor of chemical and bio-molecular engineering at the University of Houston, said he doesn't believe the world has experienced peak oil."There is no such thing as peak as long as we keep discovering these fields and we keep developing technologies," Economides said.
Darling's Failure to Review North Sea Tax Regime a Disappointment
The failure of UK Chancellor Alistair Darling to initiate a review on the tax regime in the gas-rich North Sea in his pre-budget report is a disappointment to the UK energy industry, accounting firm Ernst & Young said...."The current tax regime for the North Sea is a legacy of the past and has created distortions in the market," said Derek Leith, head of E&Y's oil taxation team.
Canada's oil industry a possible al-Qaida target
A Canadian Security Intelligence Service document obtained by a Quebec newspaper says terrorists have included Canada's petroleum industry among their possible targets....The newspaper reports today that North America's electricity network is also a potential target.
Since early summer 2007, Syria has been suffering from a severe electricity crisis, the worst in many years. Recurring power outages last four to 10 hours a day, and this has obviously affected the lives of Syria's citizens, as well as causing serious damage to the Syrian economy.
Repsol Cuts Back at Mexico Gas Field, Contracts Disappoint
In 2003, Repsol YPF (REP) began tapping Mexican natural gas under a contract many viewed as a launching pad for future oil and gas plays in Mexico's tightly held energy industry.But after four years of rising costs, difficult politics, and lousy contract terms, Repsol is cutting back at the Reynosa-Monterrey block, say industry insiders.
Repsol's woes underscore how Mexico's efforts to farm out natural gas production have fallen short of expectations. The contract problems also come amid a growing natural gas import bill.
Think oil can't go higher? Think again
What's behind the recent surge in crude oil prices?The OPEC supply increase was too little, too late. The market is in a significant deficit, the first deficit we've seen since 2003. Inventory started to drop in October of last year for two reasons. Non-OPEC supply has been extraordinarily disappointing, because those producers are hitting technical difficulties with new equipment and their existing fields are getting less productive. OPEC has the supply but hasn't brought it online. The second factor is that we're in the part of the energy cycle where extraction costs are rising and have been since 2001....
Why hasn't OPEC increased supply?
First and foremost, domestic demand is strong in the entire Gulf region. Exports from the Middle East are lower today than they were in 2000, but production is up two million barrels a day. There are serious bottlenecks preventing non-OPEC from growing supply even at $70 per barrel, so if I'm OPEC, I know I don't have significant competition for market share. The last reason, which is very important, is that if OPEC did ramp up production, they'd go to capacity, which would reduce their political negotiating position.
Saudi Arabia to Raise Oil Exports to China 9% as Demand Rises
Saudi Aramco plans to increase oil exports to China by at least 9 percent this year to meet rising demand from refiners in the world's fastest-growing major economy, said two company officials.
High crude prices shield Norwegians from sting of declining oil production
"Developments in the petroleum industry have been quite disappointing," Bank of Norway Governor Svein Gjedrum said at a briefing for the international news media. "In the past few years, we have seen quite a decline in oil production."Norway's average daily oil production has declined to about 2.1 million barrels per day as of September, about 35 percent under peak levels of over 3.2 million barrels in late 2000 and early 2001.
"We haven't felt a negative impact because of the very high oil price," said Gjedrum.
We are witnessing nothing less than history's first confluence of unsustainable "peaks."Perhaps, we are incapable of piecing them all, for when crude oil reached an all-time intra-day high of $84.10 per barrel on Sept 20, its entitlement to a front pager screamer was conceded to the tale of a few thousand empty -- or emptying -- American homes.
It was like the Butterfly Effect, with a twist. The flapping rooftops of confiscated homes were now whipping up an economic tsunami worldwide.
Transport crunch thwarting grain sales
Weeks after Gov. Bill Ritter signed an emergency order to help farmers move a bumper crop of wheat to markets out of state, much of the grain remains in Colorado....Much of the harvest is stuck in storage or on the ground, partly because of a shortage of rail cars and commercial carriers. Many carriers went out of business after six years of drought because there wasn't enough crop to haul from the state's 9,000 wheat farmers.
Shell Says Has Key to Clean Coal as Demand Soars
Royal Dutch Shell's technology to turn coal into gas to fuel power plants could allow developing countries to meet surging energy demand without a matching rise in emissions, Shell executives said on Tuesday.
China sets up expert panel on int'l fusion energy project
China on Tuesday set up a national expert committee on magnetic confinement fusion energy to ensure its implementation in the landmark multinational fusion energy project.The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) has been the largest ever scientific research program under multinational collaboration. The 11-billion-euro project is aimed at developing a sustained solution to energy production.
Could vertical farming be the future?
With a raft of studies suggesting farmers will be hard-pressed to feed the extra 3 billion people swelling the world’s ranks by the year 2050, Columbia University professor Dickson Despommier believes a new model of agriculture is vital to avoid an impending catastrophe.“The reason why we need vertical farming is that horizontal farming is failing,” he said. If current practices don’t change by mid-century, he points outs, an area bigger than Brazil would need to become farmland just to keep pace with the demand.
Global warming puts winter fashion out in the cold
The heavy winter coat is not only out -- it may be a thing of the past in Australia as temperatures rise and summers lengthen due to global warming.Australian Fashion Week, which kicked off Tuesday in Sydney, has ditched the traditional autumn/winter tag in favour of "trans-seasonal" runway shows full of clothes that can be worn year-round.
"We just don't have a need to do it any more," Fashion Week founder Simon Lock told AFP.
Agency: Pollution cuts Europe lifespans
Poor air and water quality, and environmental changes blamed on global warming, have cut Europeans' life expectancy by nearly a year, Europe's environmental agency warned Wednesday.
Green chemistry joins college curriculum
Terry Collins sounds like the world's most dour pessimist. The Carnegie Mellon University chemistry professor paints a bleak picture of the Earth's future, a planet damaged by global warming and ravaged by toxins, with a population sickened by poisonous chemicals."We are practicing time-limited technologies that cause all sorts of environmental damage, and are damaging to the species, to our very civilization," said Collins, director of Carnegie Mellon's Institute for Green Oxidation Chemistry in Pittsburgh.
But Collins also is an optimist, hoping science can solve those problems. He is encouraged by an increasing number of colleges and universities that incorporate the principles of green chemistry — the idea that chemical processes and products can be designed without using toxins or generating hazardous waste.
Heat may kill hundreds of New Yorkers
The number of heat-related deaths in and around New York City will nearly double by 2050 - and could rise as high as 95 percent -- due to global warming if no efforts are made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, a new study shows.



A new Energy and Environment Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.
In Alberta, the debate of the the tar sands royalty review is heating up. Major companies are threatening to pull investments in the province, while other point out that a peaking world offers them few other options. The environmental effects of large-scale bitumen mining, which are not considered often enough, are discussed in detail in journalist Willam Marsden's new book.
On the other side of the country, LNG shipments seem set to ignite a political row over safety in narrow shipping lanes. Nuclear appears to be approaching a revival, although cost is an issue.
The effects of climate change are making themselves felt across the globe, notably in the Australia and in the Arctic, where Inuit climate change campaigner Sheila Watt-Cloutier could be about to share the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore.
Lazy-Ass Nation
Snapshot of Millennium Institute Results
I recently spent a week in the Washington DC area working with the Millennium Institute on a series of runs of their T21 model with my scenarios. The results fill several large files and will be discussed in much more detail on Wednesday at the ASPO-Houston conference during a 1.5 hour presentation.
However, I can disclose a small snapshot of the data.
Oil availability is based upon the ASPO-Ireland (Colin Campbell) projections. A Peak in 2011 (oil at $250 to $300/barrel).
Reference case is a market based reaction to higher oil prices.
Transportation is my best realistic case for electrifying freight rail and build-out of Urban Rail and TOD. No expanded bicycling adjustment.
Transportation + Renewable Energy is as above plus a major move towards renewable energy.
All of my scenarios were done as “freebies” with simplifications and short-cuts to cut costs. Millennium Institute is looking for funding for a more complex and complete model & scenarios.
All data was normalized to 1.0 for 2007.
Time (Year}......... 2007....2025.. 2038
Transportation liquid fuel demand
Trans + Renew En.1.00....0.50.... 0.40
Transportation...... 1.00....0.47.... 0.35
Reference.............. 1.00....0.67.... 0.55
Total petroleum demand
Trans + Renew En.1.00....0.46.... 0.38
Transportation...... 1.00....0.44.... 0.35
Reference.............. 1.00....0.57.... 0.47
Real GDP at market prices
Trans + Renew En.1.00....1.18.... 1.50
Transportation...... 1.00....1.18.... 1.46
Reference.............. 1.00....1.09.... 1.19
Fossil Fuel GHGas Emissions
Trans + Renew En.1.00....0.57.... 0.50
Transportation...... 1.00....0.77.... 0.73
Reference.............. 1.00....0.79.... 0.69
Best Hopes,
Alan
Congratulations are due to Alan and the Millennium Institute modelers. Those are some significant silver BBs for petroleum demand reduction.
The Millennium Institute T21 modeling software is an extraordinarily comprehensive and powerful tool for understanding future development scenarios. This page gives an overview of the model, and this page explains its modeling capabilities. The model can deliver extremely detailed results that account for a broad variety of feedback loops across different spheres.
The full modeling process involves a lot of information gathering and customization. Once the foundation has been laid, the model results can be used to inform and underpin policy. IMO, funding for the completion of this initiative will reap sizable benefits in the decision making and advocacy realms.
It should be mentioned that Laurence Aurbach and Ed Tennyson also attended and helped in the development of the scenarios :-)
Kudos to both of them as well !
Alan
Have you tried running scenarios based on some of Amory Lovins' proposals? Those would seem to be similar in the sense they rely on efficiency. I.e., ultralight materials, electric cars, etc.
Maybe Lovins might want to pay you to do this?
Three words:
Club of Rome
The Malthusians have been predicting 23,759 of the last 3 disasters.
The only way oil will be a problem is if government interferes with supply and demand.
Do you realize how much oil is out there at $200 a bbl? Lots.
The USA alone has 6X as much oil in the ground as has already been produced.
Wrong.
You have no idea what you are talking about.
Please go and read several months prior posts (scan titles for relevant material) and lurk for a couple of months before posting again.
For one, oil supply is price in-elastic. Higher prices bring forth very little new oil. Proof ?
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/points/stories/DN...
Best Hopes,
Alan
Alan, thanks for the snapshot peek. Your $250 to $300/barrel at any point in the future seems unanticipated. Perhaps I'm just naive but wouldn't demand destruction preclude that? Thanks for all your hard work.
From informal verbal discussions (i.e. NOT from the horse's mouth), they anticipate a spike to $250 to $300/barrel which results in about -5% GDP shrinkage. This demand destruction allows oil to drop below $200/barrel and a +2% GDP rebound the following year. This in turn leads to +$200/barrel prices and stagnant economic growth thereafter as oil becomes scarcer and more expensive.
I try, with limited success, to reduce oil demand faster than depletion via higher efficiency and substitution. In the Colin Campbell world, it is a close race ! In the Jeffrey Brown ELM world, I would likely lose (not yet modeled).
The default oil conservation strategy, if all else fails, is reduced economic activity. In the ELM world, I strongly suspect that all the EOT efforts would do is reduce the rate of economic shrinkage and provide a non-oil transportation base with which to one day rebuild the economy around.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Alan - you probably didn't see last nights Republican debate, and I only skimmed through snippets, but one thing I did notice is that oil and dealing with our dependence upon imported oil played a (non-trivial) part in the overall discussion. It was heartening to see a couple of the candidates (including the leading one) mention electrification of vehicles. However, rail was not mentioned.
Also, Instapundit today is writing on the PopMech conference
http://instapundit.com/archives2/010375.php
The overall social and political winds are changing in favor of your emphases, I believe. Let's hope that we can speed up the necessary changes for our society to remain productive and rewarding for all.
Some days, I see it as a race to pre-position my meme before the panic sets in (remember the quote in the upper right corner on TOD that we have two modes for energy policy; complacency and panic ?)
And just how does one direct a panicking herd towards the right gate ? It is going to be a mess, but with proper preparation ...
Best Hopes (and I *MEAN* it !)
Alan
Meme's are devilishly difficult to work with. But you're right, at the point people panic, they'll work with the memes they already have.
How about a series of popular jokes? I'm only half kidding.
Or the threat of an "electrified transportation gap" which the 'terrorists' are secretly rooting for to starve our children.
etc
Maybe "Who is Alan Drake?"
(Readers of Ayn Rand will get this)
"Maybe "Who is Alan Drake?"
I like that oh so well!!!!!!!!
I am a big advocate of gorilla marketing (not what they write about in books by the by).
Alan you need to put your name as an up front tag on your new web site because this could work.
I have seen viral branding/marketing at work and it blows anything else you could do right out of the water, I don't care how much money you throw at it. (also your name is great).
I'm cranking up my bumper sticker maker.
A bit of irony if stickers on cars bumpers spreads your message far and wide?
P.S. I vote for railClimate dot com
cheers
HopefortheFuture dott conn is leading the pack ATM. HopeforFuture dott conn is up for sale.
I do not want to limit myself to rail. My vision is larger than that, but I saw rail as the best "leading edge" and most salable component of my vision.
I think hope will be a scarce commodity one day. Best to corner the market while I can ;-P
Best Hopes,
Alan
First Draft of website home page
Will we run in panic for life and beauty ?
{French Tram Pic}
http://images.nycsubway.org/i62000/img_62964.jpg
Or run towards death and destruction ?
{Strip Mining Pic}
http://www.ohvec.org/old_site/images/Ovec22.gif
One day we will panic over the availability of oil and/or the "in our face" results of Global Warming.
There are many responses possible. Some responses are ineffectual snake oil that will waste precious time and energy. Other responses are self destructive. They may work for a time, but they condemn us and those that may follow us to a degraded world and destruction of much of what we hold dear.
This website is devoted to those few REAL solutions that can improve our quality of life, and the lives of those that will follow us.
Best Hopes,
Alan Drake
We don't need hope. We need despair. From despair we might get desperate action.
Hope suggests merely hanging on and that is not helpful.
cfm in Gray, ME
Hope, the last and worst of the evils in Pandora's box.
"Foresight & greed" is similar to hope, and can also lead to quick action; whether positively or not is to be determined. A greedy bastard thinks "Hmm -- situation is coming. How can I profit?"
An "EBay" of ride sharing might help. Maybe a better way of finding roommates.
Of course, greed can also lead to negative actions; it seems likely that a greedy demagogue might find a use for hordes of disaffected sub-prime borrowers.
how can i profit is not just about greed
right now i am thinking what can i do that makes me money so that i am not left behind resourceless - i have a 4yo with special needs who will NOT make it in the sort of dog-eat-dog world coming, on his own
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain
This is an important and difficult thing to do. The best thought i have on this is to be part of a community that may survive. I don't see how one can get through this alone unless you have multi-millions.
I would say your best investment is skills. Who knows if money or real estate or gold or any other material goods will be worth anything in the future? It could all end up being about as valuable as shares of Enron or Pets.com.
The medical field might be worth getting into. EMT, nurse, veterinary technician, something like that. They are likely to do well if the happy motoring continues, with our aging population increasingly devoted to pets. If TSHTF, medical skills will still be in demand, and people likely won't care too much if you don't have an MD.
And in that vein don't overlook a career as a physician's assistant, chiefly because in most states you can prescribe/order medications (ref):
Q: Can P.A.'s prescribe medications?
Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia and Guam allow P.A.'s to write and sign prescriptions without a physician cosignature. These prescriptions will be filled by pharmacists.
Those who can care for others will do well, now or post-peak.
don't knock Pets.com - i actually have an autographed photo of the Pets.com sock puppet dedicated to my then cats! (long not-that-interesting story)
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain
Has anyone come up with a top ten list of post peak careers? I'm casting about for new things to learn as I think we've pretty much hit peak voice/data networks.
Gardening gets a nod, the medical training will be invaluable, animal husbandry, that handy man skill set as applied to energy conservation, small engine mechanics(cars will die - too complex after about 1975 to be kept up), and every form of cobbling, crafting, and making, just as we did a century ago. It would be nice to see this expanded on, chewed over, and turned into a set of vocational programs for the high school and two year college level.
I hated growing up here, but I give thanks now every day for my rural upbringing - most of what is needed post peak is to dust off things in the basement, hunt down the tools that aren't where I put them down in the mid 1980s, and start acting like my parents did when my brother and I were children ...
One of the TOD staffers - I won't say who, because I'm not sure he meant it for public consumption - said recently that he thinks gardening/farming will not be a desirable skill. He thinks the future will be one where the government uses technology, not to pursue alternate energy, but to control the people, Brave New World-style. And the elite and middle class will be supported by a permanent underclass. He believes having skills like gardening will just mean you end up in the slave class.
So the skill set for future inclusion in the upper class would be MANIPULATOR.
Master manipulator of people, money, and resources.
I guess it always has been for that matter.
He argued that it would be carried to a whole new level. We're unlikely to see high returns on investments into alternate energy, efficiency, etc. But there may still be a lot of low-hanging fruit when it comes to psychoactive drugs, technology used to spy on people, and that kind of thing.
Blackwater drill instructor.
Railway engineer, backhoe driver, nuclear engineer, scrap sorter, chemical engineer, forestry worker, bicycle repairman, railcar builder, auto mechanic specilized on ultralight cars and plug-in hybrids, carpenter, plumber, dressmaker, school teacher, and on and on...
Good attitude. An optimistic search for opportunity is a major survival trait. Most of us have two avenues to explore: 1) how can I make more efficient use of what I have? (Things like "get a job closer to home/get a home closer to the job", "get back to a healthy weight", "live simply", and 2) how can I get more stuff. "2" is also a valid approach.
i couldn't agree with you more - you are spot on
global warming has been ignored largely based on hope
now Peak Oil is being ignored based on hope
hope is a destructive response to the level of threat that exists today IMHO
a plan for the future is fine - but hope for the future? i don't like the branding that represents
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain
The word on hope has long been spoken.