DrumBeat: October 21, 2007
Posted by Leanan on October 21, 2007 - 8:54am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Rising seas threaten 21 mega-cities
Of the 33 cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 are highly vulnerable, says the Worldwatch Institute.They include Dhaka, Bangladesh; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Shanghai and Tianjin in China; Alexandria and Cairo in Egypt; Mumbai and Kolkata in India; Jakarta, Indonesia; Tokyo and Osaka-Kobe in Japan; Lagos, Nigeria; Karachi, Pakistan; Bangkok, Thailand, and New York and Los Angeles in the United States, according to studies by the United Nations and others.
Are oil prices at their highest?
Pinpointing the all-time inflation-adjusted record for oil prices is nowhere near as exact as it might seem.
People often ask: I want to get greener, what should I do? New light bulbs? A hybrid? A solar roof? Well, all of those things are helpful. But actually, the greenest thing you can do is this: Choose the right leaders. It is so much more important to change your leaders than change your light bulbs.
Over the past few years, drilling crews have been lighting up the skies with towering rigs used to drill for natural gas.
Pipeline Attack in Northern Iraq
In the latest bout of violence around the northern oil city of Kirkuk, insurgents blew up an oil pipeline, battled a convoy carrying bodyguards of a deputy prime minister and ambushed a police chief, Iraqi officials said on Friday.
Iran's top nuclear negotiator quits
Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, viewed by the West as a moderating influence in Tehran, resigned ahead of crucial talks with Europe this week over Iran's nuclear program, signaling that officials here may have closed the door to any possible negotiated settlement in its standoff with the West.
One World, Taking Risks Together
The breadth and complexity of today’s global markets create risks so great that no group of business leaders — or even a single country — can control them.
World Bank Report Puts Agriculture at Core of Antipoverty Effort
For the first time in a quarter century, the World Bank’s flagship annual report on development puts agriculture and the productivity of small farmers at the heart of a global agenda to reduce poverty. Three-quarters of the world’s poor still live in the countryside.
Jordan's Budget deficit likely to exceed JD800 million - experts
Rising international oil prices are likely to widen the state budget deficit, which analysts expect to reach JD800-JD900 million.The crude oil prices have hit a record level above $90 per barrel. As a result, the budget deficit would increase by JD4 million each day until the end of the year, economist Fahed Fanek said yesterday.
A gaze into the future: Officials offer their forecasts for gasoline, natural gas and electricity bills this winter
Some expenses are easy to cut from the budget.The weeklong family vacations. The extra trips to the movie theater. The weekend dinners in town.
But one expense is a lot harder to dodge.
Energy prices.
Mishkin Says Inflation Minus Food, Energy Is a `Better Guide'
Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin said inflation measures that exclude food and energy costs are a ``better guide'' to underlying changes in prices.
Heating oil aid program in trouble
The Independent Connecticut Petroleum Association is recommending its 530 members refuse to participate in CEAP. Oil dealers must sign a contract to receive payments, but the payments are made at a discount. ICPA wants CEAP to pay retail.
Higher metal prices make theft attractive
Thieves have stolen ground wires from 5,000 to 10,000 utility poles throughout the state owned by electric utility Westar Energy. Westar corporate spokeswoman Karla Olson said it costs about $100 a pole to replace the wires."We are now replacing ground wires with steel wire coated with copper, which won't bring as much in a salvage yard," she said. "We're hoping that discourages thieves."
Grain prices take their toll on businesses
Base malts, used to make many of the beers at the pub, have gone up 50 percent. Specialty malts, for finer brews, are up nearly 100 percent.“This is a worldwide crisis,” said Wilson, who recently was hired to take over beer-making at the brewery.
Del. could learn from N.Y.'s ill wind
With some of the highest electricity rates in the country, wall-to-wall sprawl and congestion on the roads and in the air, Long Island appeared the ideal candidate for an offshore wind farm....But re-estimates put construction costs at four times the original price. The power authority's new chief, Kevin Law, said the project is likely to be shelved as his organization considers more affordable renewable-energy projects.
Delware: Offshore windfarm numbers might not add up
The developer of the proposed Delaware offshore wind farm says it can beat the costly prices that plagued a Long Island wind farm.But a Long Island man who has crunched offshore wind farm numbers says it's unclear from Bluewater's financial documents how it intends to accomplish that and remain financially viable.
New fuel to avoid energy doomsday
Rep. Judy Biggert, a Hinsdale Republican whose congressional district encompasses portions of DuPage and Will counties, got an amendment to legislation approved that would expand research into hydrogen as an energy source. It specifically seeks to expand hydrogen storage options, which Biggert is convinced holds promise after talking with scientists at Argonne National Laboratory near Lemont.
Ethanol producers and industry regulators say the growing pains are ending as the ethanol industry matures and new technology is allowing existing plants to reach peak production levels.
House passes resolution to increase nation's renewable fuel supply
This past week, the House of Representatives passed a resolution setting a goal of expanding the country's domestic renewable fuel production to 25 percent of its energy supply by 2005.But with global oil prices nearing $90 per barrel, a meat industry coalition is looking to get the government out of the renewable fuel industry.
State considers lifting ban to extract farm's uranium mother lode
As much as 110 million pounds of uranium ore could lie beneath these gentle hills where cattle now graze and tobacco once reigned. The value of this radioactive deposit, based on current market prices: about $10 billion.
Uranium worth a fight, Niger nomads say
In the arid moonscape of northern Niger, the light-skinned Tuareg nomads have launched a fresh rebellion....Last year, Niger mined 3,500 tons of uranium, making it one of the world's top producers of the nuclear fuel, and, with global demand and prices rising, the Tuareg find the proceeds worth fighting for.
Fusillades of claims and counter-claims are flying in Charlotte's debate over funding its transit system. "I'm swimming in numbers," as The Observer's Mary Schulken complained in a recent column.While "numbers games" are being used to sow confusion, establishing truth often depends on numerical data, such as this.
Insight's resale value a bad sign for hybrids?
The original hybrid gas-electric car, the Honda Insight, is about to have a senior moment that could show us what the future holds for the fleet of hybrids that followed the revolutionary little car onto the road.
Nitrogen: pricey way to keep tires pumped
The thinking is that nitrogen, which makes up 78 percent of the atmosphere (21 percent is oxygen and 1 percent is other stuff), has larger molecules, which prevents it from seeping out of the tire as quickly as air and thereby maintains stable pressure.Tires filled with regular air tend to fluctuate in pressure level -- increasing during hot summer months and decreasing during the cold season.
Scientists sometimes refer to the effect a hotter world will have on this country’s fresh water as the other water problem, because global warming more commonly evokes the specter of rising oceans submerging our great coastal cities. By comparison, the steady decrease in mountain snowpack — the loss of the deep accumulation of high-altitude winter snow that melts each spring to provide the American West with most of its water — seems to be a more modest worry. But not all researchers agree with this ranking of dangers.
Fight Against Coal Plants Draws Diverse Partners
Environmental groups that have long opposed new power plants are being joined by ranchers, farmers, retired homeowners, ski resort operators and even religious groups.
New Coast Guard Task in Arctic’s Warming Seas
For most of human history, the Arctic Ocean has been an ice-locked frontier. But now, in one of the most concrete signs of the effect of a warming climate on government operations, the Coast Guard is planning its first operating base there as a way of dealing with the cruise ships and the tankers that are already beginning to ply Arctic waters.
Catalog Choice, which does not charge a fee, helps retailers “to maintain a ‘clean’ list so that they are not mailing to people who don’t want their catalogs,” said Kate Sinding, a senior lawyer for the Natural Resources Defense Council.
IF the government wants to reduce its dependency on imported oil and, in the words of the Department of Energy, “foster the domestic biomass industry,” it has only to stop by my backyard with a pickup. The place is an unlikely but active biomass production center — especially at this season with countless autumn leaves eddying in every nook and cranny — and I’ll happily donate my production to the cause.
Reyes found that the rise and fall of lead-exposure rates seemed to match the arc of violent crime, but with a 20-year lag — just long enough for children exposed to the highest levels of lead in 1973 to reach their most violence-prone years in the early ’90s, when crime rates hit their peak.
Business lobby groups are blowing their last vestige of credibility in their flat-earth rejection of the government's energy and climate change policies.
New Zealand: Govt energy strategy to change landscape
The Government's attempt to wean the country from fossil fuels, part of its strategy to cut greenhouse gasses, will change the landscape in more ways than just putting legions of wind turbines on the horizon.
Higher emissions from coal and gas power stations threaten pollution targets
POLLUTION FROM Scotland's major coal and gas-fired power stations shot up last year, threatening to wreck the Scottish government's plans to combat climate change.
THE ALL-TOO-THIN baby on the pediatric exam table does not know that oil prices recently topped $80 a barrel. With almost no fat on his malnourished body, he is unable to tolerate for even a brief period being undressed by his doctor.His mother wonders how she will keep the house warm, food cooked, and lights on through the coming winter for the boy and his sister, while making sure that they have enough to eat. She is not alone in her anxiety. The price of heating oil is projected to exceed $3 per gallon this winter, and electricity and natural gas costs remain high. Last week, heating oil prices in Massachusetts reached their highest levels ever at $2.72 per gallon, according to the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources. Between March and May, 1.2 million households had their electricity shut off due to last winter's overdue energy bills.
Pakistan: Petrol pumps, CNG stations suffer losses
The owners of petroleum pumps and Compressed Natural Gas CNG) filling stations suffered huge losses as the sale of various fuels came almost to a halt during the last three days in Sindh.Petroleum dealers and CNG retailers closed their pumps following the deteriorating law and order condition in the major cities of province following bombing incident in Karachi.
Oil prices have skyrocketed to reach $90 per barrel, raising concern that they could continue to climb to $100 in the near future. The situation is all the more gloomy with many experts foreseeing a potential second oil shock once the price goes beyond $95. Soaring oil prices have been causing anxiety among businesses and people, alike. For a nation that depends entirely on oil imports, high prices have a far-reaching impact upon the country's economy and the livelihood of ordinary citizens, as they will lead to a drastic rise in commodity prices.
A local investor is planning to set up a plant which will use foodstuff like maize, cassava and sugarcane to manufacture oil and gel for lighting and cooking respectively.
Energy agency helps to revive nuclear power
The U.S. Department of Energy is looking to nuclear programs at the University of Missouri-Columbia and elsewhere to develop the next generation of more efficient, safer and environmentally friendly nuclear technology.
State set to sue Bush administration for waiver to enforce emissions law
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is expected as early as Wednesday to make good on his promise to sue the Bush administration, accusing the federal Environmental Protection Agency of purposely stalling California's application for a waiver to enforce its greenhouse gas reduction law.
‘Oracle of climate science' James Hansen comes to University of Montana
Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, will give a seminar titled “What Determines Climate Sensitivity?” at 3:10 p.m. in Gallagher Business Building, Room 123.His 8 p.m. lecture - titled “The Threat to the Planet: How Can We Avoid Dangerous Human-Made Climate Change?” - will be at the University Center Ballroom.
Whistling in The Dark– The New ‘Relaxed Attitude’ on High Oil prices
By late 2007 oil prices had surely not heard the signal of “seasonal downturn in demand”. They therefore did not respond to the usual talk-down mantra of high stocks, falling demand, OPEC pumping almost all it can, not too much geopolitical stress (except for about 1.6 million dead in Iraq since 2003), and warm enough weather – at least in the northeast of the USA – to imagine that Winter will not come. This would allow a remake of the 2006 oil sell-off, culminating on January 18, 2007 with a low of about $49.50-per-barrel for WTI grade, February delivery. Such was the acclaim and applause this happy feat generated that for weeks finance blogs were stuffed with talk of “30-dollar oil” coming back almost anytime.
The Tar Sands and Canada's Food System
Tar sands opponents point out that burning natural gas, a relatively clean fuel, to extract oil will result in massive increases in greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, some experts say the implications of using natural gas go far beyond global warming.North American agriculture is deeply dependent on natural gas. Nitrogen fertilizer is chemically produced using a process that -- currently -- cannot be conducted efficiently without large amounts of natural gas. This fertilizer, in turn, is an essential nutrient in North America's food production system. "In a fairly direct way," says Darrin Qualman, Director of Research at the National Farmers Union, "natural gas is a primary feedstock for our food supply."
It's time to heed admiral's 1957 fossil-fuel warning
A half-century ago, Rear Adm. Hyman Rickover, the father of the nuclear Navy, accepted an invitation to speak at the banquet of the Annual Scientific Assembly of the Minnesota State Medical Association in St. Paul. In that speech, before a gathering of physicians, Admiral Rickover raised the specter that easily accessible and economically reasonable supplies of fossil fuels would be in jeopardy - just about now.
‘Peak oil' Just how long will it last?
There is a huge debate going on between basically two schools of thought. One is the Cambridge Energy Research Association's thought, which is that we have plenty of oil in the world, and we are good at developing technology. In spite of the fact that energy information agencies are forecasting we will be using another 30 million plus barrels a day of oil in the world between now and 2030, and technology will find a way to do that. That's one school of thought.Another school of thought says we are at the maximum point of producability, and so it's decline from here on down. That's the “peak oil” theory.
7 oil workers kidnapped in Nigeria, official says
Gunmen in speedboats attacked an offshore oil field in the volatile Niger Delta, kidnapping three foreign workers and four Nigerians, Shell officials said Sunday.The men were taken after a three-hour gunfight at the EA field, operated by Royal Dutch Shell, said Olav Ljosne, a spokesman for Shell in Nigeria.
Iran says extra OPEC oil unlikely to curb prices
Oil prices are not rising because of a lack of crude in the market and so any increase in OPEC output is unlikely to help bring them down, a senior Iranian oil official was quoted as saying on Sunday."In the current conditions and oil market uncertainties, it is unlikely there will be an increase in OPEC production or that it would have an impact on prices," Javad Yarjani, head of OPEC affairs at Iran's Oil Ministry, told the ministry's news Web site SHANA.
Nozari says 92 oil companies will be privatized
Iran's Acting Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari said 92 oil companies would be privatized in line with Article 44 of the Constitution."All refineries of the country along with state-run petrochemical complexes excluding the three main petrochemical companies are subject to 'Note A' of the article and 100 percent of their shares will be offered," reported PIN Quoting the caretaker as saying.
LNG plant should give Sound a wide berth
The dilemma that spins in your head is this: we need the energy.The country's not getting any smaller, but does the dang plant have to be in Long Island Sound, which god knows has seen its share of pollution and abuse already? Is their no totally unbiased expert somewhere who can give us the straight scoop on this project?
I believe that part of the populist support for the Superferry stems from the inherent understanding of the environmental gloom facing O‘ahu and the desire to have free access to the resources and space of the outer islands.But, solving that problem is the real issue, not getting the Superferry running. If there is any sustainable solution for Hawai‘i after the Peak Oil Wave passes over us, it will be founded on the outer islands which are not overdeveloped. There we can grow food and provide resources that will be needed throughout the state. To overrun these islands now with “easy access” and “economic growth” will doom all of Hawai‘i.
Evangelical Christians defend God's creation
Environmental activists are regularly castigated as both crypto-communists and godless heretics:Why care about the Earth when the droughts, floods, famine and pestilence brought by ecological collapse are signs of the apocalypse foretold in the Bible? Why care about global climate change when you and yours will be rescued in the rapture? (Moyers, 2005)
This has led to a growing awareness on the part of moderate evangelicals across the US that they have given away far too much of the moral high ground to their more extreme co-religionists, particularly in terms of standing up for God's creation.
Climate change blamed for fading foliage
Forested hillsides usually riotous with reds, oranges and yellows have shown their colors only grudgingly in recent years, with many trees going straight from the dull green of late summer to the rust-brown of late fall with barely a stop at a brighter hue."It's nothing like it used to be," said University of Vermont plant biologist Tom Vogelmann, a Vermont native.
He says autumn has become too warm to elicit New England's richest colors.
Climate deniers to send film to British schools
Secondary schools across Britain are to be sent copies of the controversial television film The Great Global Warming Swindle, as the polemical battle over climate change heats up in the wake of last week's Nobel Peace Prize award to former US vice president Al Gore and the UN's climate change panel.
A new Energy and Environment Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.
We have seen much attention paid lately to the potential for large sea level rises due to climate change, but global warming also has other effects on water systems - most significantly a potentially substantial reduction in the amount of fresh water available to sustain human populations.
In Australia, Tim Flannery pointed out some time ago that a 10% drop in rainfall resulted in a 70% drop in available water due to increased evaporation from warmer temperatures, which is why Australia is currently experiencing such severe water shortages. Other areas could be set to experience something similar, especially if the glaciers supplying major river systems in populous regions melt. In a world of falling water tables, and less energy available for pumping water from ever-increasing depths, this is a trend to watch, and not just for the purpose of making money from scarcity as investment newsletters would have you believe.
Also in this Energy & Environment Round-Up, we follow the on-going resource royalty debate in Alberta, the row over equalization payments and resource ownership in the Maritimes, and the opening of a token hydrogen refueling station in Ottawa. On the international stage, we look at China's tidal wave of growth and increasing energy demand, and the developing geopolitical tensions that are combining with rampant speculation to push the price of oil to record highs.
Finally, check out the October 2007 Special Tar Sands Issue of The Dominion.
The Future Is Drying Up
That picture reminds me that I got curious the other day about water levels at Lake Mead, and ran across this excellent page with a graph:
http://www.arachnoid.com/NaturalResources/index.html
The 'bath-tub ring' in the photo above is 100 feet high!
German team wins Solar decathlon 2007 on Washingtons National Mall.
"They were judged on whether they maintained a comfortable temperature, had adequate lighting, sufficient power for household appliances and home electronics, and hot water -- all produced using solar energy."
"The houses also had to power an electric vehicle."
I walked through the house yesterday. They did some interesting things, and not surprisingly the house had a definite "Euro" feel to it. My girlfriend thought it cold, plus the bed was buried in the floor, which to us seemed impractical.
The University of Maryland house won 2nd, and we found that to be much more comfortable feeling. Like you could just move in and feel at home.
For the purposes of the competition, the homes are limited to 800 square feet. I suppose that was to make it easier to transport the things to DC. Some people could live in that amount of space, others would feel the need for more. I guess it depends on how much stuff you have.
My sense is that the crowds were greater than they were 2 years ago. The waiting line for the German home was at least 30 minutes, similar wait for the Maryland house. There were some of the houses for which there were shorter lines, none had no lines.
Bear in mind that your "stuff" expands to fill the available space.
Hi ericy, thanks for your report (I am too far away, even from Darmstadt to be able to see the house myself).
To be honest: I liked the Maryland house better from the outside (from the pictures on the web site, of course). The winner from Darmstadt seemed a little like a rabbit cage to me, so I wondered why they were ranked highest from the view of architecture.
What a good idea.
Building houses and tearing them down a week later without anyone ever living in them. We'll save a hella lot of energy that way :)
| The problem will solve itself.
| But not in a nice way.
We couldn't stand the wait for the German house last Sunday...at least 30 min, maybe more. The Maryland house was very comfortable, agreed, nice polish and attention to design. The kids there didn't seem as knowledgeable as the UC Boulder or MIT teams.
The whole thing was inspiring.
I saw the MIT house too - I guess because I went there. I have to admit that knowing the place, I wasn't expecting much from an aesthetic point of view. IIRC, they weren't there 2 years ago, so I suppose it isn't bad for a 1st effort.
It seems that a successful entry tends to have a good working relationship between engineering, architecture and interior design. Yeah, the house needs to be energy efficient and have the solar cells, and that part all needs to work. But given the 800 sq foot limitation, you cannot really have any wasted space either - you need a really good floor plan. And finally, the thing just needs to look comfortable.
ASPO Houston:
It was nice to meet all the folks from the oil drum and see and meet them as real people not just as anonymous contributors.
On Friday afternoon their was a roundtable by Henry Groppe, Charles T Maxwell, and Boone Pickens.
Mr. Groppe presented some remarks to the effect that KSA had made some wrong decisions due to the IEA stating that non-OPEC oil production in 07 would increase by some 1.7 MM brl’s per day. KSA then decided that OPEC’s production should be cut by this amount, and achieved a reduction of 1.5 MM brl’s per day. While in reality non-OPEC production never increased at all. He also stated that he was of the opinion that in the future KSA could achieve 12 to 15 MM brl’s per day and not the +20 that some project.
Mr. Maxwell presented some remarks to the effect that International oil CO’s had relied on the EIA and CERA price data back in 05 to be in the range of 35 to 40 Dollars in 09. The Oil CO’s were of the opinion that if they held back on their E&P budgets they could get cheaper rates in the future. They are now in the position where they will have to spend enormous sums to achieve their goals in E&P.
These are some of the causes of the current high prices.
Mr Pickens was of the opinion that Production would never exceed 85 MM brl’s per day, and we would see 100 dollar oil before we see 80. IMO it may be to his advantage make these kinds of projections.
This is of course my understanding of their comments and please correct me if I am in error.
Regarding Mr. Pickens and his prediction on oil prices, I realize he is investing in wind farms in Texas, but I don't think that presents a conflict of interest nor an advantage for him to make bullish predictions about oil. Now, if he were predicting lower oil prices and also investing in wind farms, then I would question his motives.
As it is, I don't think his predictions are going to actually affect the price of oil so I don't see what advantage he gains. I see him as a guy with the knowledge to make accurate predictions and the guts to put his money where his mouth is.
-Don
Guys like Pickens, Simmons, and Buffett all have enough money that I don't think they need to scam people to make more...
I follow what they all have to say and what they do with their money to give myself a hint as to what's to come.
They are all smart investors, humble and have been around for awhile...they don't need to impress anyone and are thinking beyond their bottom dollar IMHO.
Dragonfly41, I agree with your comment: 'guys like Pickens, Simmons, and Buffett all have enough money that I dont think they need to scam people to make more...'
I also follow what they do, but pay less attention to what they say.
I dont agree with 'your humble opinion.'
'These people'... Well, what do 'these people' do? They play the game of capitalisim and they are very good at it. They are perfectly suited to the game and they will continue to play it as long as they are successful, have sharp minds, see the trends and act on them, make more money and enlarge their egos while acting 'humble'...(sometimes). Money is the means by which they keep score.
One of my favorite lines is from the movie 'China Town'...Jack Nicholson, upon discovering that the wealthy of the LA area are busily cutting off water to farmers and forcing farms to sell at 'fire sale' prices, is stunned. Then he delivers the line (questioning why the wealthy would force poor farmers out of business to further enrich themselves)...'My God, how much better can they eat?'...Nicholsons character didnt understand that the wealthy were not concerned with eating better or having finer mansions or bigger autos...The wealthy were simply playing the game of capitalisim...And, the wealthy could care less who gets hurt, as long as they win (profit) in the game.
Some individuals, like Roberto Clemente, are perfectly suited to play baseball. Some individuals, like the trio mentioned above, are perfectly suited to play capitalisim.
A lot of us were puzzled by Mr. Groppe's and Mr Maxwell's comments regarding Saudi Arabia, especially Mr. Groppe since he showed that crude + condensate production had peaked.
So, of the four long time energy insiders, three of them--Pickens, Simmons & Groppe--all thought that at least crude + condensate production had peaked (Pickens was using Total Liquids).
Mr. Maxwell thought that we would see a brief pullback in oil prices, followed by another price increase in six to nine months.
My April, 2006 letter to two Texas newspapers regarding Mr. Pickens and Mr. Rainwater:
http://www.energybulletin.net/14606.html
My recurring question: If you believe Pickens, Rainwater, Simmons, et al, regarding Peak Oil, wouldn't you avoid buying the SUV to drive to and from the $500,000 mortgage?
If you believe ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, Yergin, et al, regarding Peak Oil, wouldn't you be more likely to buy the SUV, thus driving up energy demand and prices?
So, who is royally trying to screw the American public?
"So, who is royally trying to screw the American public?"
Hmm. Classic case of a false set of choices, and also a misleading question. It may not be the case that anyone is trying to screw the American public but that there there are plenty which are succeeding simply through a combination of ignorance and greed, and that group includes the American public itself.
Hello WT,
Just out of curiosity: was any ASPO Conf. attendees doing my suggested Peakoil shoutout when their yeasty beverage of choice reached half-empty during the cocktail sessions or late-night yada,yada,yadas?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I thought the comment about the 1.7 MM bbl/day drop by Mr. Groppe was a bit surprising also. I think that Stuart Staniford's analysis presented at ASPO and on the Oil Drum definitely is a good technical basis to believe that it was not voluntary.
One unknown here is whether Mr. Groppe is well connected enough (he probably is) to get some direct information from the KSA royal family about what's happening there.
There was another part of his comments though that I have difficulty accepting, and that was the part about KSA being able to produce 12 to 15 MM bbl/day for a long period (and I thought I actually heard him say 20 MM bbl/day). I think it's possible that they may get to, say, 10 MM bbl/day with their current intense drilling program, but I cannot concieve of 12 to 15 MM bbl/day.
I must also say I was dumbfounded at Mr Groppe's confidence in saying Saudi could produce 12-14mbpd. Its behavior at current prices says otherwise. Also, from a moral POV, so many poor nations are greatly suffering at the current price level such that the Saudis are guilty of a great sin if they can actually produce enough and thus cause the price to fall.
Article from today's Observer which mentions the decline rates for existing fields, and overall production decline facing oil companies:
BP strives to drill itself out of a hole
I think this concept also applies to advanced recovery techniques on old, abandoned oil fields. Sure the little companies could come in and try to turn a buck on these, but it is more involved, complex than it used to be...more variables and factors that COULD go wrong.
It's going to require big loans for capital investment, and this may get harder and harder due to credit problems (i.e., banks willingness to give loans out to risky business speculations).
Geopolitics in the news:
MSNBC: Kurdish rebels kill 12 Turkish soldiers -Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan calls emergency meeting
Hi Leanan,
Thanks for posting this one:
Evangelical Christians defend God's creation
I haven't bothered to think about what could be done about the influence of the religious right in their seemingly lack of concern about Global warming but it looks like some have.
Countering the self absorption of the idea of 'rapture' with a statement that to injure the earth is to make a blasphemy of Gods creation could be an arrow in the green quiver that might go a long way if fired from a steeple or two.
But what do I know about it, I am the Sunday school miscreant who sat on the railway tracks under the sunny blue sky, waiting for the other kids to come out of that dark church basement, before returning home with them:)
The correct name is the disloyal Christian Right and care should be taken in writing and conversation to differentiate between this highly irresponsible, undesirable lot and plain ol' Christians. The vast majority of those who profess to follow the teachings of this Jesus fellow are not members of a doomsday cult ...
Sorry about that Sacred, I am a long way north of all that and am afraid from here the MSN ie. CNN clouds the view. Without trying to be argumentative, those who are not memebers of a doomsday cult where do they generally stand on GW, is it an issue or something outside their interests?
They've all got the bible, but there are many flavors of Christians. The keywords are premillenial and postmillenial - one group believes they need to build a Christian world and run it for a thousand years, then Jesus returns, while others believe he returns and then there is a thousand year reign. I'm not all that hip on the details, but Political Research Associates has covered it all in glorious detail:
http://publiceye.org
The vast majority of those who profess to follow the teachings of this Jesus fellow are not members of a doomsday cult ...
Huh?
May be you haven't read all the scriptures, isn't Apocalypse, End of Times, etc... "part of the package"?
Curiously it seems that all cults have some sort of doomsday predication.
Could it be a nice evolutionary feature which result (if not purpose) will be to get the nutcases out of the gene pool?
Thus, the true problem in any case is collateral damage.
His mother wonders how she will keep the house warm, food cooked, and lights on through the coming winter for the boy and his sister, while making sure that they have enough to eat.
And that shall be one of the things to go in the US of A - the idea that one has a 'right' to children you can not support.
What do you think, does one have a "right" to children the planet cannot support? I don't actually see how the rich have a moral right to have children in an overpopulated world, just because they've managed to hoard more resources than the poor.
I know this is theoretical, and you probably meant something rather more practical. It's just an interesting question from the point of view of moral philosophy.
What do you think, does one have a "right" to children the planet cannot support?
It matters not what I think is 'right' - or you.
Even if what 'we' thought was actually the best gosh darn thing, true, right, correct and what should be done, the reality is 'we':
Exist in a system where others have determined a set of rules backed by things like money, law, social norms. Thus - right now "life is considered important" (So long as you aren't poor, a different skin color, in a location that prevents the more powerful from taking whatever it is you have that the more powerful want, blah blah insert whatever injustice you see)
I don't actually see how the rich have a moral right to have children in an overpopulated world, just because they've managed to hoard more resources than the poor.
Unless you believe in Jay Hansens http://www.warsocialism.com/ conclusion below - the "social norms" (read law) for the US of A is the Government and its force exists for the benefit of private entities. If you want to think the US of A has laws based on 'morals' or 'fairness' - I'll ask for others to post links to places where one can get an education about the fairness and morality of Governments.
Once the poor surrender, admit defeat in the class war, lay down in front of the mansions of the wealthy, beg for mercy, etc, the wealthy will simply get on the next aircraft leaving this impoverished land and heading for new elysian fields 'over there'...
Perhaps you missed the news about the huge lines at pass port offices?
passport lines are not for people wanting to 'cut and run' - primarily its because you need passport to get into country when you return from Canada soon so there was a deluge of new passports.
I recently got a new passport - waited in line the day of my flight (per their recommendation) before I went to Ireland - took 8 hours and everyone was quite stressed.
About half were of non-US origin, by a cursory sample.