DrumBeat: October 22, 2007
Posted by Leanan on October 22, 2007 - 8:53am
Topic: Miscellaneous
A terrifying prospect - sooner or later
The dearth of peer-reviewed scientific work from the peak oil theorists is frustrating to the layperson trying to form an opinion on the subject - particularly when reputable organisations such as the US Department of Energy don't predict peak oil until after 2030. For some readers, this frustration will be compounded by Professor Heinberg's books, which, although packed with fascinating information, are astonishingly light on references.
ENERGY MATTERS: Adaptation To High Prices Enables Oil Boom
When Goldman Sachs analysts made their controversial call in 2005 that oil prices would hit $105 a barrel, they predicted such a spike would cut energy consumption globally and lead to the development of a greater oil supply cushion.While the price forecast doesn't seem half as far-fetched now with oil futures trading near $90, the consumption and supply aspects of their argument haven't materialized. If anything, the surge in the price of oil this decade has exposed the tortoise-like effect of efforts to grow energy production, whether from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or the major oil companies, or their would-be successors in venture capital and renewable energy.
Hostage oil workers released in Nigeria
All seven foreign hostages seized by gunmen from an offshore Nigerian oil field were released on Monday after two days in captivity, a state government spokesman said.
Rice tells Russia not to use energy as weapon
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice lambasted Moscow on Monday for using its oil and gas wealth as a "political weapon" and said democratic reforms would strengthen Russia's ties with Washington....Russia is a key energy supplier in Europe but it has reduced or even cut supplies over a range of disputes with neighboring countries. For example, this month, it threatened to reduce supplies in a dispute with Kiev over payments.
"We respect Russia's interests, but no interest is served if Russia uses its great wealth, its oil and gas wealth, as a political weapon or that treats its independent neighbors as part of some old sphere of influence," said Rice, an expert on the Soviet Union.
Zambia to import 90,000 T emergency crude oil
Zambia has asked Russia's LUKOIL to procure 90,000 tonnes of emergency crude oil supplies worth $65 million to avert imminent fuel shortages, Finance Minister Ng'andu Magande said on Monday.Magande said the government had contracted the company's trading arm, Swiss-based LUKOIL International Trading and Supply Company (Litasco), to purchase the oil following a dispute with France's Total
over fuel pricing.
Analysis: Turkey-Iraq fight won't harm oil
As Turkey's military bares its teeth across the border with Iraq, oil prices sit comfortably above the $80-per-barrel mark. Any incursion will likely not affect the work of Iraq's oil sector today, but could stifle investment, especially in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and put Turkey's oil sector - a vital transit route for the world's oil supply - at risk.
U.S. sanctions against Iran could threaten LUKoil project
Russia's largest independent crude producer LUKoil said on Monday that possible U.S. sanctions against Iran could threaten the company's Anaran oil project in the Islamic Republic.
Kuwait's KOC, Exxon sign heavy oil production deal
Kuwait said on Monday it had reached a preliminary deal with Exxon Mobil Corp to produce heavy oil in the north of the Gulf Arab state and aimed to boost production to 900,000 barrels per day by 2020.
A catastrophic loss of 3.9 trillion Dollars in Iran's oil reservoirs
Professor Saeedi said: If gas is injected into our oil reservoirs, the volume of Iran's fossil energy resources would become more than Saudi Arabia in the long run and Iran can gain the first place in the world.He warned: Non-injection of gas would diminish Iran's oil production by two million barrels per day and we would be forced to import oil.
South Dakota at crossroads of Canadian crude oil projects
Two major oil projects in South Dakota are among several nationwide that would help tap into the world's second-largest oil reserve in Canada.
Peak oil means peak economy - Hirsch
Robert Hirsch: When oil goes into decline yes. World GDP will decline, I am perfectly convinced of that. In talking to economists, they believe very much in their models and their models are econometric so they don’t deal directly with shortage, they deal with oil price and their models can handle oil prices changing relatively slowly but to a person, economist that I have talked to and I have talked to a number of very significant economists, they admit that their models cannot handle significant changes, rapid changes, shock changes, and that is what peak oil is likely to be.(A transcript of this podcast from DavidStrahan.com)
Carolyn Baker: Stop Calling Me a "Doomer"
Last week a review of the documentary "What A Way To Go: Life At The End Of Empire" was posted on Energy Bulletin and sub-titled "a review of a new doomer cult classic." While the review was favorable, I must state that as someone who has seen the documentary dozens of times, who consistently shows it to my history classes, and who is a personal friend of the film makers, I was appalled at the use of the word "doomer" to describe the film. The reviewer's use of the term was the culmination for me of the inappropriate use of "doomer" to label individuals who have rejected the soporific of "hope" with respect to the terminal state of planet earth. I am equally unnerved by those who consistently describe me as "negative" and obsessively attempt-almost beg me-to offer them "something positive." Hence, the inspiration to write this article.
Oil & Housing: A Volatile Combination
For the U.S. economy, already staggering from the housing bust, oil at nearly $90 a barrel comes like the second half of a one-two punch. On Oct. 17 oil for November delivery closed at $87.50 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after peaking during the day at an astonishing $89. The impetus, on top of soaring global demand and paltry supply growth, was a fresh threat of conflict in the oil-rich Middle East, where Turkish lawmakers voted to allow the use of military force against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq.
So, while the price of oil ratcheted up hour by hour, the ASPO conference members heard from an impressive range of experts who have been leading the public conversation on the Peak Oil story – with no help from the mainstream media or the political sector. Among them were Robert Hirsch, co-author of the now-famous 2005 Hirsch Report, commissioned by the US Department of Energy, which, much to the consternation of its sponsor, first told the nation in no uncertain terms that it was heading for a catastrophic set of disruptions in “normal” American life if we heedlessly continued energy business-as-usual. Hirsch went a little further now, two years on, than he had in his famous report, predicting a future of “oil export withholding,” panicked markets, and allocation disturbances that would make the 1973 OPEC embargo look like a golden age.
In 2006, ARAMCO, the state-owned national oil company of Saudi Arabia, announced an $ 18 billion plan to increase its capacity to 12.5 mbd by 2009 and 15 million by 2020. However, its capacity has not increased significantly since 1980-81 when it produced 10.2 mbd and has not made any significant discoveries.
Fears over rural filling stations
Rural Scotland could end up running on empty with large areas of the Highlands and Islands becoming "petrol deserts," according to industry experts.New figures show that almost half of remote filling stations now survive on handouts from taxpayers through the rural petrol stations grant scheme, with payments trebling in the past three years.
Independent garages have been hit hardest by closures as supermarkets tighten their grip on the market.
The latest Scottish Household Survey reveals that people in rural communities now shell out an average £100 a month - almost 25% more than townsfolk - to top up their vehicles.
Pakistan to import 5b cubic feet gas per day under $3.6b project
Islamabad has communicated to Teheran that Pakistan is ready to import 5 billion cubic feet gas per day under the proposed $3.6 billion Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas line to make the project more economically viable in the backdrop that India was currently pursuing a wait and see policy, a senior government official said.
India: Nuclear plants shut down for want of fuel
Five of the 17 nuclear power plants in the country had been shut down and the remaining are operating at an average of less than 50 per cent capacity for want of fuel, a top official of the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited said.
An aviation global warming tax could prove very useful
There no evidence to indicate that an aviation tax will have any impact on travel volumes. On the contrary, if well used, a tax can be extremely beneficial for the purpose it is intended to serve.
Edible oil should not be used for bio-fuel production: SEA
Concerned over the rising price of edible oil in domestic market, an industry body on Monday said use of edible vegetable oil overseas for non-food purposes like making bio-fuel needs to be discouraged.
Energy solution sought formulating a plan to lower power bills for businesses
Having heard cries of pain and anguish from local companies staggering under the weight of their power bills, having watched prospective companies move to locations where the cost of power is cheaper, and having seen three local paper mills announce closings and hundreds of layoffs largely because of the cost of power, local economic development officials are moving to change the future.
The report states that to meet the policy goal of significantly increasing U.S. production of ethanol to reduce dependence on imported oil, federal and state governments are extending huge subsidies to ethanol producers to expand capacity and to corn farmers to supply the crops needed to make the fuel. This diversion of an ever-increasing share of the American corn crop from human consumption and livestock feed to energy production is putting steady and unrelenting pressure on food prices.
Hydrogen's role in a nuclear renaissance
Nuclear energy is key to establishing a hydrogen-powered rail corridor in Toronto, says Greg Naterer, a professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology (UOIT).
S Korea to allow hikes in airline fuel surcharges
South Korean officials said today that the government plans to allow domestic airlines and freight companies to increase their fuel surcharges due to the rapidly increasing international oil prices.
Taiwanese may drive less amid high oil prices
A total of 62 percent of adults in Taiwan say they will consider driving less in the face of skyrocketing oil prices, according to the results of a public opinion poll conducted by the Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC) released yesterday.
Taiwan - Most motorists still prefer their cars to public transport: poll
Despite soaring gas prices, close to 80 percent of motorists said they still prefer to commute by driving and will not consider taking advantage of public transportation, a survey by the Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC) said this week.
Consumer demand has driven motor vehicle sales comfortably above the million mark, but while cars are cheaper consumers still feel that petrol prices are taking them for a ride.In spite of this, on the latest vehicle sales data, petrol guzzling SUV’s have again been a particular favourite.
Beijing fuel oil prices may rise 3% next year
Fuel oil prices in Beijing may rise 3%, from the current RMB 5, 000 per ton to RMB 5,190 in January next year, forecasted Wang Yongjian, president of Sinopec Beijing Yanshan Corp, a subsidiary of the nation's largest oil refiner, China Petroleum and Chemical Corp (Sinopec).The price increase will take effect as Beijing introduces the Euro IV emission standard to cut pollutant emission before 2008 Olympic Games. It will help the company to counter rising crude oil costs in oil processing, as crude oil futures hit a record high of RMB 669 per barrel recently.
Climate change is a war that we must fight
With the global population heading from 6.5 billion today towards 9 billion by 2050, we are already exceeding the ability of the planet to absorb the impact of human activity. The immediate sustainability priorities are water, climate change and the peaking of global oil supply. But our leaders, having supposedly crossed the threshold of accepting that sustainability, in particular climate change, is a serious issue, seem to believe it can be solved by minor tweaking of business as usual. That is demonstrably not the case.
Hopes for coal gasification ride on one project
Much talked-about U.S. efforts to build a coal-fired power plant with near zero emissions are now concentrated in a single project, as the costs and difficulties of the endeavor have mounted and the stakes have risen.
Venezuela's PDVSA to increase workforce as oil production levels increase
Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA has committed to gradually increase its workforce, to cope with the predicted increase in production levels.
Solar Power Edges Towards Boom Time
Solar power could be the world's number one electricity source by the end of the century, but until now its role has been negligible as producers wait for price parity with fossil fuels, industry leaders say.
Carbon capture plea from energy firms
A group of energy companies angered by a Government U-turn on carbon capture technology are pressing for assurances that there will be no similar back-tracking when ministers hold the next round of emissions trading talks with the European Union.
Platts Report from ASPO: Dark clouds, no silver linings
It is difficult to walk out of the peak oil meeting here in Houston and not feel miserable.Yes, there are some attendees who might be considered a bit offbeat, ex-hippie types who see their long-held dreams of "the end of oil" nearing reality.
But the majority of the 500+ attendees at the US meeting of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil are not in that category. They are geologists, economists, professors, consultants, economists. And no matter who steps up to the podium to make a presentation, the forecast is grim.
At least for now, our civilization and most of the widgets produced require oil’s bounty in one way or another. Our productivity is intimately tied to oil’s price and ultimately its availability. Yet, we continue to pretend that oil is just another economic variable, never to approach the sacred cost of, or supply of money. Isn’t it obvious that oil is becoming the global currency, far more important than anyone’s fiat money?
The prospect of Turkish tanks rolling into northern Iraq – current oil exports: virtually zero – was enough to send crude prices soaring. So what would happen if bombs started dropping on Iran, the world’s fourth largest exporter?
Rocketing oil prices won’t last – Kudrin
The rocketing oil prices won’t last, Russian Vice-Premier and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told the media on Sunday....“An average long-term price will stand at $50 per barrel [in comparable prices] and slightly enlarge because of the inflation to about $60 per barrel in a decade,” Kudrin said.
Oil prices to remain high this winter; calls on OPEC to raise production - CGES
The Centre For Global Energy Studies has said that oil prices will remain high this winter due to lack of supply in the market, and has called on OPEC to increase production.
Kashagan oil dispute a step closer to resolution
An oil group led by Italy’s Eni is believed to have taken a first step towards resolution of a dispute with Kazakhstan over the development of Kashagan, the giant oilfield in the Caspian Sea area, according to media reports.
Citgo Carries Out Three-Day Maintenance at Corpus Christi Plant
Citgo Petroleum Corp., the U.S. refining subsidiary of Venezuela's state oil company, is carrying out three days of maintenance at its Corpus Christi, Texas, refinery, according to a Texas Web site.
U.K. oil and gas companies hit by refining despite strong crude prices
U.K. large oil and gas oil companies will post either a sharp drop or a slower growth in profits in the third quarter as lower gas prices and refining margins offset higher crude prices.
Marathon To Buy 4 Ohio Terminals, Pipeline Stake From Citgo
The Houston energy giant said the transaction, which will increase its flexibility in supplying transportation fuels to the Midwest, is slated to close in the fourth quarter.
Indonesia to extend LNG export contract to Japan
Indonesia will extend the period of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports of 25 million tons to Japan for another 10 years after the current contract expires in 2010-2011, a spokesman said Monday.
Sasol, union say strike talks stalled
Talks have stalled to end a pay strike at coal mines owned by South Africa's Sasol, the world's biggest maker of fuel from coal, the company and the workers' union said on Monday.
Worldwide solutions are needed to deal with the effects of climate change
Nothing annoys scientists who study climate change more than the question of whether it is really happening. Nothing, that is, with the possible exception of the related question of whether climate change is a man-made phenomenon.They get annoyed because the scientific consensus is that the world is getting warmer, that the climate is changing in dangerous ways we can't fully comprehend and that change is being triggered by gases that humans are pumping into the atmosphere. The debate over "whether" is over, they insist. The urgent question now is how we should respond.
Canada can assume a leadership role in deciding how to tackle global warming
The protocol on climate change initialed a decade ago in Kyoto represented the best deal negotiators could achieve at the time to address a threat that could only be tackled through international cooperation. Yet it was deeply flawed. It did nothing to curb the growth of emissions from the two most populous countries in the world, India and China, and the world's largest emitter, the United States, refused to agree to its terms.
Hardly 'junk' science: Royal Society examines climate change
In the wake of the Nobel Prize awarded Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, skeptics have once again been fussing, fuming and fulminating. Assertions are flying that the evidence for climate change is either bunkum spun by charlatans, a gigantic anti-capitalist hoax or alarmist "junk" science.So let's give one of the world's most prestigious science academies an opportunity to address some of the counterclaims presented as fact by climate change deniers.
Japanese carmakers vie to be greenest
Despite the success of the Prius, automakers are still hedging their bets on green technologies, with electricity, biofuels, clean diesel and fuel cells also seen as potential alternative power sources.
Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study
World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.The complete report is here.The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel.
Energy industry can do little as oil rises
The energy industry can do little to counter the factors beyond market fundamentals that have driven oil prices to record levels, a senior executive at Saudi Aramco said.
Liebscher Says Oil Prices Pose `Significant' Inflation Risks
European Central Bank governing council member Klaus Liebscher said rising oil prices are creating ``significant upside risks'' to price stability, suggesting he will back further increases in borrowing costs.
Weak Mexican Peso Shows Oil Threatens Growth, Surplus
Mexican President Felipe Calderon is delivering a grim message: The largest oil producer in Latin America is running out of crude.``Our oil reserves have been consistently falling,'' and the decline is ``severely threatening'' government finances, Calderon told a nationwide television audience in an address last month at the National Palace. That's the same place where seven decades earlier Lazaro Cardenas cemented the anti-American legacy of his presidency by nationalizing the petroleum industry.
OPEC's agreed crude output hike from Nov 1 could cut oil price - Kuwait
Kuwait's acting oil minister said OPEC's agreed production output increase of 500,000 barrels per day from Nov 1 could bring down the price of crude oil.'We believe supply and demand will be influenced positively once OPEC production is increased by 500,000 barrels a day' to cut the price of a barrel of crude, said Mohammad al-Olaim to journalists.
British Energy shuts reactors on safety fears
Shares in British Energy plunged by nearly 9 per cent in early trading as the beleaguered group revealed fresh safety concerns at one of its ageing nuclear power plants.
Global Warming Delusions: The popular imagination has been captured by beliefs that have little scientific basis
Global warming doesn't matter except to the extent that it will affect life--ours and that of all living things on Earth. And contrary to the latest news, the evidence that global warming will have serious effects on life is thin. Most evidence suggests the contrary.
The scientist who shared the Nobel with Al Gore says the tide is turning on global warming.
RE: Global Warming Delusions
The link for this loops back to TOD.
E. Swanson
Thanks - fixed it.
Global warming won't destroy life. Very perspicacious of Mr. Botkin. http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110010763
It will merely re-arrange a few things. Such as Manhattan might be under water. No matter. Move to Denver or Kalispel.
We move from denial to panic to indignance to resignation. Move along now -- nothing to see here.
I agree with his call for a reasoned approach to the problem, but his Olympian view that "it doesn't matter" is not helpful in dealing with real human beings who will really be suffering and afraid as things inevitably change more rapidly than individuals can cope with. Of course, in the end, we will all be dead, and things will sort themselves out some other way-- but that isn't my understanding of the purpose of human life. (If anyone wonders, the purpose of life is to create beauty right where you are.)
It will take two days to flood NYC's Subways, once electricity
drops.
And I'm waiting to find out who funds Botkin.
Noticably absent from Google searches.
I googled Botkin and CO2. Not one match. Not one.
Tennesse Now Rationing Water
Three years into the harshest drought anybody can remember,
something new has been added to these timeless rural routines
—- something that could portend metro Atlanta's worst water
shortage nightmare.
LATOC's on fire. Just like the SW US.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
And why does the MSM do this?
"...harshest drought anybody can remember.
same with floods. Don't they have access to records?
Or maybe if they post the records, they'll have to say
"this "X" has never happened before".
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
Western writer Elmer Kelton observed years ago that "West Texas is in a state of permanent drought, broken occasionally by rain." It's probably a good description for most of the US going forward.
Back in the Fifties, there were parts of Texas that were abandoned because of a lack of water, and this occurred when the population density was vastly lower than today.
Oddly enough, in Texas we are in a wet area between the droughts to the west and east. But as Mr. Kelton noted, it's probably just a wet phase in a long term drought.
My view for a long time has been that we need to ban outdoor watering on lawns.
Yes. My cousins live in West Texas and joke that if E Arkansas doesn't get rain every other week we think we're in a drought.
The WA wheat harvest is underway:
Monday, 22/10/2007
The harvest in the drought-stricken midwest region of Western Australia has begun, but yield is expected to be just a quarter of an average year.
Retired CSIRO researcher, John Ive, who is also a wool grower near Yass, says there has been virtually no rain for three months, and evaporation rates are double the October average.
"We've already had about 170mm of evaporation which in average terms is running at about 8mm per day but normally we're at this time of year around about 4mm per day," he says.
"As a direct consequence of the high evaporation rates, soil moisture profiles are as dry as what they were at this time last year. We might remember last year was the driest since about 1944-45".
1/4 of 24 (generous) million tons.
6 million tons. Domestic consumption is over 5.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
My understanding is that the normal state of affairs geologically for the last several million years is one of ice dominating the northern hemisphere for 80,000 to 140,000 years at a time, broken by stretches of warm periods that run from 10,000 to 40,000 years in length. During these periods, both during the ice ages and during the warm ages, the geologic record tends to favor desert conditions throughout large swaths of North America. We have built civilization in North America upon a climatic outlier, because we didn't know any better. But ignorance on our account won't stop nature's return to its most common state.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
GreyZone, you have touched a key issue. Interglacials like the one we are now (Holocene) have been very brief spikes in the Earth's thermal history during the last 450 Ky.
I show my point in the following graph:
This graph - where time goes from right to left - is based on the first in Stuart Staniford's post "Living in the Eemian" at http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/3/0394/97545
I took the Holocene's last 12 Ky and superimposed it onto the corresponding period of the Eemian (the previous interglacial), 121 Ky ago. This is exactly what Stuart did in the second and third graphs of his post, only that here I show it within the bigger picture.
Thus, it becomes clear that, if there were no human-caused rise in CO2 levels, the astronomical forcings that drive climate change ("Milankovitch cycles") would have the world temperature start to drop very soon (in about 3 Ky) and be 6 Celsius lower than today in about 15 Ky.
This can be further validated by looking at the temperature record of the last 450 Ky, derived from ice core readings at the Vostok and Epica sites in Antarctica, at
There it is clearly seen that interglacial periods are very brief spikes, and that most of the time during the last 450 Ky has been spent in ice ages with temperatures around 6 C lower than today's.
It is clear then that, *IF* we want to break out of this glaciation cycle, the only way to do it is to drive temperatures HIGHER than those in the Eemian (which were about 2 C warmer than today's). Which means correspondingly higher sea levels than those in the Eemian (which, from paper http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v404/n6778/abs/404591a0.html were "at least three metres, and probably more than five metres, higher than at present.")
The tough choice for mankind is, then:
- warmer temperatures with a sea level rise (*), or
- 6 C colder temperatures with a sea level drop of 50 meters in a few milennia, as from
(*) The amount of the warming and rise depends on whether there is a destabilization of methane hydrates (clathrates), as explained in http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/gsl/null/lang/en/page2617.html
The potential for sea level rise, from
and given that the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum was 55 Mya, is 100 meters in the Hallam estimation and 200 meters in the Exxon estimation.
Beach Boy, we have the proven ability to warm the world rapidly if we need to (i.e. burn lots of coal) but cooling the globe will be exceedingly difficult. This is yet another reason to keep the coal in the ground. The world is cleary warming now, so lets cut back on our carbon emissions, but when and if the interglacial ends we might need that coal to warm the globe. So lets save it for a rainy (and cold) day.
I had heard this about the NY subways:
Some were built back when the city was pumping groundwater to drink, so the tunnels inadvertently went into the depression cones in the water table. When the groundwater started to salinate and they had to switch to the aqueducts (still in use today), they found that if they stopped pumping the wells, the tunnels were quickly swamped.
So the salty groundwater is pumped and disposed of to this day in NYC, in order to keep from swamping their subway.
“I had a fascinating time talking to engineers and maintenance people in New York City about what it takes to hold off nature…The name ‘Manhattan’ comes from an Indian term referring to hills. It used to be a very hilly island. Of course, the region was eventually flattened to have a grid of streets imposed on it. Around those hills there used to flow about 40 different streams, and there were numerous springs all over Manhattan island. What happened to all that water? There’s still just as much rainfall as ever on Manhattan, but the water has now been suppressed. It’s underground. Some of it runs through the sewage system, but a sewage system is never as efficient as nature in wicking away water. So there is a lot of groundwater rushing around underneath, trying to get out. Even on a clear, sunny day, the people who keep the subway going have to pump 13 million gallons of water away. Otherwise the tunnels will start to flood.”
That it would take only 2 days for the subway to flood indicates how contemporary civilisation is a mutable and organic construct which must fend constantly to maintain itself.
Within 7 days nuclear power plants would be ablaze. Within 2 years roads would have cracked open and within 10 years buildings would be pitted and scarred from the elements. As soon as 20 years after the disappearance of humanity the buried waterways would reassert themselves overground and Manhatten would become many islands with rivers taking on the rectangular grid pattern of the city. At the end of a 100 years almost all roofs would have collapsed. Within 300 years suspension bridges would have collapses. WIthin 5,000 years nuclear weapons would have corroded releasing radioactive plutonium...."
http://designresearchgroup.wordpress.com/2007/07/11/after-us-deep-time-p...
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
All of this is why I think we have to retreat big-time: we cannot continue deploying vast amounts of energy and material in a war to forcibly reshape nature to our liking: we cannot afford to continue the assault and maintain the conquest, much less widen it. (That's my argument against nuclear, BTW, not safety.)
We are going to have to become a lot more adaptable and cooperative, both with each other and nature. We are going to have to learn, again, how to garden and thatch. A different kind of technology is going to be needed, a green technology that is somewhat akin to some of the stuff found in various pre-Columbian American civilizations, but enhanced with the still-usable parts of what we learned in the oil-age. The problem we face is the nature we have bequeathed ourselves is much impoverished compared to that of the pre-Columbian era and our population is much bigger.
"...we cannot continue deploying vast amounts of energy and material in a war to forcibly reshape nature to our liking..."
Precisely.
This is exactly where we need to be redirecting our energy - away from forcing things to fit to our desire, and instead working with our ecosystem. It is like someone fighting against a rip at a surf beach - they eventually get tired and swept out. Typical modern thinking. If they just swam with the rip, or across it - instead of fighting against it - they would have enough energy to redirect their route back to shore. Eastern martial artists have understood this for centuries, along with plenty of other smart individuals, but why is our normal group think so far removed from reality? Why is our modern instinct to fight against the rip? Dumb.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
The World Without Us
How come the subway didn't flood during the power cut in 2003 or 1977?
(http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3152451.stm)
Or were the pumps connected to a separate supply (much like I remember the phone would still work during 1970s power cuts in the UK)?
AKH
Critical systems have backup power. Really critical ones will have an NG generator on one side of the building and a diesel unit on the other.
When Omaha had the big snow storm in 1996 that whacked power all over the city for three days First Data, a large credit card processor, just kept trucking - lots and lots of diesel in underground tanks. People came to work by snowmobile, but the work got done.
9/11 gave the folks in NYC an education. Generators? Check. Fuel? Check. Spare air filters for generators? Bueller? Bueller? ... So after twenty four hours or so the filters clogged and the generators died.
NYC tunnels definitely have multiple pumps and generator backup for them. Fuel delivery by an armored column if things got ugly would be totally expected.
One of those 'obvious-in-retrospect' concepts that had never occurred to me 'till now. I've worked at a couple of sites with redundant generators, but always both using the same fuel (diesel) - then again, they wern't 'really' critical.
Of course, in the past and present diesel can be bought everywhere. I'm intriguied what sites people might have come across with different fueled off-grid power supplies?
I also wonder whether really REALLY critical sites shouldn't be looking at (1) diesel (2) steam-engine :-)
--
Jaymax (cornucomer-doomopian)
I have designed power plants for telcom, Katrina proved out a few things even with dual genetators with NG and diesel each, after a few days the power will go down, then the batteries run down...etc. Re-supply was the biggest logistic. NG may not be there if the head-end is down and diesel requires the 'system' to function for delivery.
On a side note, the sites with solar back-up never lost power. But there were only 3 solar out of 56 main sites that lost comercial power.
We had power back up (generator) in some sites in 2-3 days but without government help, it wasnt there. You would figure getting communication up would be near the top of the list??? That was very much a watershed for me as I see that lack of leadership on peak-oil as well. We had diesel tank trucks turned away by government as we explained what they were for...
Botkins' article is interesting, but where does he get his data on the lack of extinctions. According to this: http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/homs/typespec.html
there are about 15 extinct species just in the genus Homo.
That thought occurred to me, ranging from Neandertal to Homo Habilus.
Union Pacific Railroad Increases Profits by Increasing Efficiency and Reduced Bottlenecks
from
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/oct2007/pi20071018_693120.h...
I spoke at length with an UP locomotive engineer on-board Amtrak during my trip to ASPO-Houston. Mainly small, steady improvements plus double tracking Los Angeles to El Paso (almost 80% complete).
Track quality is definitely improving (UP has gone from concrete ties to composite (recycled plastic) ties in high humidity locations), better switches, more powerful and more efficient locos, etc.
Best Hopes for Increased RR Profits via Reduced Bottlenecks and increased capacity,
Alan
Best hopes for the Coast Starlight to be less than 6 hours late!
Wouldn't trains be great if you could actually count on them arriving somewhere near the time they advertise? Right now, taking the train from Seattle to Los Angeles is like taking a cruise. It's really enjoyable, and if you have a big project you want to work on without any interruptions, then it's great. But it can scarcely be called "transportation" in any modern sense. Still, it's way better than stage coaches, and any improvement is welcome.
Never---
The schedule for the Coast Starlight is some of the greatest of American Fiction writing.
It is a great trip, but you must suspend any reference to time, or time relationship with anyone outside of the Coast Starlight----
You have entered a different time space.
Well it happens all the time in countries like Japan, Switzerland, Germany, France, .... All of them have spend tens of billions of dollars on passenger rail infrastucture.
My sister and my brother in law and the kids travel by rail from the east coast to the west coast several times per year. They got here on time twice in the last five years.
Hi Alan,
What is the cost per mile/km to electrify a line?
Easy country (no issues, bridges, problems) is about $2 to $2.5 million/mile for single track with $0.5 to $0.7 million extra for double track. Triple track gets "more complex".
In Denver electrifying 18 miles of proposed commuter rail would cost an extra $58 million.
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/local/article/0,1299,DRMN_15_57072...
This is suburban & urban (vs. rural) and done with Federal procedures (designed to "Ration by Queue"), but $3.2 million/mile for mainly single track (some passing sidings).
Best Hopes,
Alan
Alan,
I've been looking around at our transit stuff and thinking about rail electrification. Please check my thinking ...
I focused on the four county area within half an hour of my house:
The red lines on this map are U.P. rail, the blue is a local road that spans much of the state, and the beige stuff is a ghost - two hundred yards of that thirty seven miles remain. I think the rest was taken up and shipped to China.
This, of course, makes little sense without the context of the larger system:
I checked population numbers against rail service. We have 52,000 total spread over about 1,750,000 acres - a 49 x 56 mile patch. 12,000 of those are rural and the rest live in one of thirty eight towns in the area. 33,000 have direct rail service. 5,300 of the 7,200 who don't have rail service are in the Okoboji area - a tourist destination full of summer homes that is going to take it hard as the economy deflates. The Union Pacific lines already run daily service through much of the territory - a six to eight car train passes through here every evening.
Most of those without service who are outside the tourist area are in three towns of about 400, two of about 200, and three of less than a 100. You can practically tell by looking which towns don't have rail - they're still in the midday, with everyone gone to work elsewhere, and the main street will sport shuttered and abandoned buildings.
When I was a young man Graettinger and Terril had roughly the same population. Graettinger has gained three hundred on the backs of two manufacturing businesses that have to have rail access for raw material delivery, while Terril has withered away to just four hundred people, twelve miles from the nearest rail stop. (They started at about 700 each for those not fond of mathematical story problems).
Iowa towns universally have a grain elevator where bulk grains are sold and finished feed products for animals are purchased. I find only three small regional collection points in the whole four county area that are not serviced by rail. We already have transit oriented development in Iowa.
http://flickr.com/photos/avyakata/sets/72157602478411439/map/
So the next step is to make it sustainable. We've got the wind to push stuff around:
We've got a community college system with a wind energy program, complete with their own training turbine. We're not yet to the point where you can always have a wind farm in sight while driving but they do seem headed that direction around here - one always sees convoys of semis bearing new shafts and blades in this area.
Long term it would seem sensible that we have wind turbine powered trains with onboard biodiesel backup for local delivery and a return to the passenger service we had up until the late 1940s. We'll still have a lot of driving of some sorts - people here genuinely need large trucks for pulling and hauling and many of those 12,000 living outside of towns are needed where they are or VMT here would actually increase.
If you're interested in all of the research required for a presentation on TOD & rail electrification in rural areas just give me the word - I would like it very much if this study could be of more use than my own personal edification.
Yes, I am interested, I am also overloaded ATM back from ASPO-Houston.
Could you get back to me next week.
Good work !
Alan
On the other hand, the Okoboji area is some of the finest farmland in the world, with excellent wind resources. They might see the tourist industry disappear, but much higher crop and electricity prices should make up for quite a bit of that.
Here is how you do it if there is no other way:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3FttseVxcQ
Francois
Using NYMEX futures crack spread this morning is down to $1.90 oops its up to $2.06
You kind of figured this would happen. They're worried that the economy will tank.
The exec. summary of the Energy Watch Group spells it out very clearly.Peak is now.That summary might be one of the best peak primers for a student...excellent graphics.Dark message.
Indeed. If this isn't going to scare the s**t out of you, what is?
During the ASPO workshop in Berlin a couple of years ago I was sitting (now later regarded by chance) beside Mr. Schindler. It was really interesting because he and his colleague Dr. Zittel really know what they are talking an writing about.
A -7% decline in the years ahead. On saturday the president of the german federal bank was cited who telling that the high oil prices are only a temporary price. Another economic expert said the high oil prices will dissapear afther the winter.
No comment. I feel really save for my future with such capable people being cited in the Frankfurter Allgemein Zeitung, which is really known as a serious paper.
If there is one thing I learned in the last years reading TOD, then it is important to evaluate statements in de MSM very carefully.
Hi Mariotti, I reacted quite negatively to that rate of decline when I saw it..and I believe such a progressive claim is already dismissed , even before it is really out.. (is it a misprint from the newspaper ..or?)
I now read the executive summary of the German Energy Watch Group. Whilst I remain sceptical about some of the detail and conclusions in the report, I believe the authors are more or less on the right track. Peak Oil is round about now, give or take a few years. In the great scheme of things it is of minor sigificance.
The 7% decline rate is rather worrying though. I wouldn't like that to be too accurate! However, apart from them claiming that we've hit the peak, it's the belief that the rate of decline after peak could be far steeper than most of us would feel comfortable with. It's this steep rate of decline that regard as the most important part of their report, and indeed it is!
Here there is no gentle downward slope giving us decades to adjust and take appropriate mitigating measures - while not exactly a cliff, it sure looks steep to me! They've looked at regions and how they have declined and especially Great Britain and the North Sea, they appear to think this could provide a 'model' for larger areas. This, if true, would be rather unfortunate for us to say the least!
The report is also aware that such a steep and quick decline is going to provide our civilization with quite a challange because our civilization is an oil civilization. Take away the oil and not only do we say goodbye to growth, we could be saying goodbye to luxury and even comfort for most of us, and the social and political ramifications of such a fundamental change in our economic system also have to be addressed. Whether our current political institutions are really up to this challange is another story entirely, personally looking around at the quality of the leaders we've got at the moment and the class/power interests they represent, almost makes one want to dispair and join the survivalists!
However, being an optimist and a romantic, I think I'll work for the Revolution instead.
I've now read the whole report, and they don't mention a 7% decline rate after peak. That would be really drastic. They talk about several percent around 3% on average, on world basis. The Guardian article confused me with their reference to 7% which is a massive figure for decline post peak. However, the graphs in the report still look pretty damn steep on the downside and 3%, if accurate, is still a real challange.
thx writerman - good that common sense still works ... and sure 3% is a serious number, although I guess we'll have to wait and see. At least this report is a warning signal for governments - comming from another source and thought-base.
I still have trouble with IAE and EIA reports as they are presented. Those outlooks should have more RED lines and BOLDED letters “giving some real-time warning signals....". Those folks are still more or less on the same pages as CERA , which freak me out, woahaha
The Bloomberg article on the Mexican peso seems, surprisingly for a financial publication, to overlook the fact that the price of oil has risen by multiples in the last decade, yet they attribute the deficit and currency slump is a result of a drop in production and export of rather meager proportions - as yet. I can see the future value of the currency being impacted by the ability to maintain production, but the actual government deficit should be way down or in surplus given that what has happened to export prices in the last five years.
I can forgive Bloomberg for not knowing much about the geological mechanics of oil, but this is an add subtract multiply type of goof. Sure, they may have some economic 'issues', but what would it look like if oil were back at $23?
Or are they not getting the world price for it?
Or has the money gone to Bermuda and Switzerland?
The money does not go to Bermuda and Switzerland. The money passes through there on the way to US treasury bills, British SIV (subprime mortgage equivalents), Mexican bonds, and Chinese stocks.
You are assuming government expenses have remained constant. I would suggest that given the windfall from the Pemex taxation they have been tempted to increase expenses much faster... and we know how bottomless the government expense well could be.
Appetite comes with eating - a French proverb.
Selling the up side
"New Book Claims Clean Energy Industries Create New Jobs"
http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-10-18-voa35.cfm
Two committed environmentalists, including Democratic Party Congressman Jay Inslee of Washington state, are urging the country to create a clean energy economy. They make their case in a new book that cites numerous examples of environmentally friendly businesses already operating successfully in the United States. Producer Zulima Palacio talked to the writers. Jeffrey Young narrates the story.
Could this be the next New Deal? I understand that there are alot of things stacked against us (understatement) but I for one am salivating at the prospect of something to get behind.
So far after 5 years of looking very hard all I can come up with is making soup for hundreds of people every day using more and more local ingreeds, supporting and even underwriting local production.
Whew. Had to re-read that carefully, the first time through I got 'soap' instead of 'soup' and was treated to a post-peak vision too dark even for The Chimp.
"Soup for" comes first; "soap from" will arrive in time.
You're not raiding lipo clinic toxic waste bins now, are you? ;-)
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
The Best Economic Policy is the Best Environmental Policy (and vica versa)
The Millennium Institute runs of their T21 model show that the BEST results, by 3 metrics, came from a combination of a push for Renewable Energy combined with Electrified Rail (no time for effects of more bicycles, but surely better yet).
ASPO_Ireland (Colin Campbell, Peak 2011) oil #s.
Oil Use -62%
Greenhouse Gases -50%
GDP +50%
Best Hopes,
Alan
"Liebscher Says Oil Prices Pose `Significant' Inflation Risks "
Of course, we've been led to believe that food and fuel should not be incorporated into "Core" Inflation indexes, as they tend to 'skew' the results.
I was watching CSPAN Book world this morning call-in show and this guy Vijay Vaitheeswaran was on who is the Energy/Enviro columnist for the Economist. Anyone have thoughts on him ? I am seeing mixed levels of reality coming from him. He's got this on huffington
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/vijay-vaitheeswaran/a-call-to-arms_b_68547...
On one had, he recognized that cheap oil is at an end, but he does seem to be overly optimistic about alternatives and maintaining current lifestyle. He implied expensive, enviro-damaging fossil fuels can be produced in volumes that would allow us to continue as we are but at a high cost (and that is why we must migrate to "other fuels"). He used the phrase - "we are not running out of oil, we are running in to it". I guess that can be taken multiple ways.
Took me less than 30 seconds to fugure that out.
He mentioned "cars" and "future" and was smiling.
I clicked to Bloomberg to watch the Fed buying up the Market.
Must've cost 'em more than $10 billion to do that. Wonder where they got the money?
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
All it takes it a quick click of a few computer keys and suddenly "we're in the money". John
How pissed will the rest of the world be, when they finally figure out that , by chaining their wealth to the US dollar, then "turning on our presses", we stole all their money??
scsns
Were you being facetious or does the fed actually "buy up the market"? How would we know that it is the fed that is doing that (why would they tell anyone if they were?)
They actually tell us every morning how much they are going to buy (but not what).
Today they added $10.5 billion to their "REPO" pool, causing the overall pool to rise slightly. (Some earlier contributions expired).
See http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed04.html
Look at the history of Fed interventions. Since the beginning of September, every Thursday has been "massive pump" day. Look at the numbers for successive Thursdays and you will see $20 billion to $40 billion per Thursday, created out of Helicopter Ben's rear end and tossed to his banking buddies. Yes, the Fed intervenes in the economy. This is not a free market economy, as Alan Greenspan himself noted not too many weeks ago.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
{Nevermind - already Posted by Leanan}
I will take a shot at picking a date when the SHTF
1st quarter of 2009, in the USA & Europe
Reasoning
Imports:
The OECD imports have been at about 27 mbpd for the last year (May 2007)
China is importing about 3.3 mbpd (May 2007est)
India is importing about 2.2 mbpd (May 2007est)
Total so far 32.5 mbpd imported
Total exports from the top 16 exports 37.7 mbpd (Aug 2007)
That leave 5.2 mbpd for the rest of the worlds imports.
I see demand in the OECD + 2 as being flat to increasing by 2 mbpd for the next year. Growing is Asia and declining elsewhere.
I see demand increasing in Oil Exporting countries per the Export Land Model.
I not see enough new production coming on-line in the next year to offset the increase in demand and the decline in production from older fields.
Exports in January 2009 I think will be down to about 32.5 mbpd
Above ground factors can move this up by 6 months if anyone cut's exports for whatever reason.
Good luck everyone it's going to be an E-ticket ride.
Ed
Off Grid, Off Mainland, current profession:Beach Bum
www.mvjoybells.com
One more thing - The US presidential elections will be in November 2008. No candidate is going to want to speak to this prior to the election. (And if recent history repeats - only a candidate who promises two hulking SUVs with full tanks in the McMansion driveway -- paid for with tax cuts -- will win.*)
"I love the smell of sarcinol in the morning - it smells like reality."
Can we really tread water for another thirteen months without people noticing oil production has peaked? Perhaps as the mortgage scam unwinds we'll see a drop in consumption that will let this happen ... but there are so many above ground issues half a degree from boiling over.
The efficacy of tax cuts presumes revenues that might be taxed in the first place ...
Yes we can. It's a little off-Broadway production called "War with Iran". It will provide propaganda cover for oil shortfalls for years to come. The 2012 election will be all about how the lingering effects of the Iran War will finally be removed (if you just vote for XXX), and prosperity will be just around the corner.
War with Iran? Yes, it seems shrub and vader are really pounding the ol war drums loudly. Shrub even mentioned WW3 in connection with Irans work with atomic energy.
On the one hand the US will be finished as a power in the Mid East, and perhaps the world, and will lose control of the oil spigot, if Iran becomes THE power in the ME.
On the other hand if we try to stop Irans nuclear research by force we might trigger WW3.
The questions are: If we attack Iran what will China do? What will Russia do? What will Iran do?...And India plus Pakistan both need Iranian gas. We have little intelligence on Iran, same with China, almost the same with Russia. China has already stated that they do not buy the MAD theory and believe that they can win an all out nuclear exchange with the US. China went so far as to say that they had every Americn city with a population of over 10,000 targeted with a nuke. If true, that would turn over a whole lot of real estate in the US and would probably solve the sub prime loan housing mess. What houses?
Of course, WW3 could go a long way tword solving the overpopulation of the earth...But I doubt that anyone left alive would consider themselves winners.
The problem with these pesky nuclear weapons stockpiles is that sooner or later some lunatic is going to use the things...And unfortunately, I believe we have elected the two lunatics that would like to outdo Mao, Stalin and Hitler as the greatest mass murderers of all time...One way to insure a legacy.
Bit of a sticky wicket, eh?
This is my fear in a nutshell.The rest of our problems are not in a vacuum.Your "blame game"is on the money.....start a war...declare shrub pres.for life...martial law,ect. ect.ect.And I get to spend my retirement living in a bad scifi movie aka "the postman"
I'd like to see a credible reference for this statement. The Federation of American Scientists seems to think they have about twenty missiles capable of hitting us. So they might have the geographic coordinates for every town of 10,000 or larger, but they can only hit the NFL cities in the western half of the United States.
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/nuke/index.html
I think China has at least one nuclear ballistic missile sub.
If they managed to gain Russia as an ally, things could get difficult.
I would be very surprised if that boat got 1 bird off before a 688 fast attack put it to sleep.We are very ,very good at that sort of thing.{I used to work on them many many moons ago}
I would certainly agree with that but China has many attack subs as well to defend their missile sub.
Then again one boat is useless anyway, how often could it be in service?
I think all opposing ballistic missile subs are tracked anyway but it would only take one of those multiple warhead subs to get away to pose a very serious threat.
Overall I understand what you are saying.
Snuffy, I was aircrew ASW Navy. We might be 'very, very good at that sort of thing'...in the movies. My real world experience was totally different. Tracking conventional subs is difficult over extended time frames. Tracking nuke subs over long time frames is nigh on to impossible. Been there, done that...for years.
Perhaps you did not see the recent article about the Chinese conventional sub that surfaced in the middle of our Pacific Fleet totally undetected...untill it surfaced?...and within torpedo range of the Kitty Hawk?
Chinas Nuclear Arsenal-2350 nukes-550 tactical-1800 strategic
http://www.kimsoft.com/korea/ch-war.htm
Washington Times: Chinese sub secretly stalked US Fleet (surprisingly within firing range)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1737613/posts
What to make of all this bally-hoo regarding war with Iran? Personally I believe that the days when a country could decide to become an empire, bully other countries with threats of nuclear attacks, attempt to force its will upon others by military means alone, are finished. There are too many countries that could/will counter a US attack on Iran, where both Russia and China (to mention only two) have invested enormous sums in oil, gas and nuke power infrastructure. I do not believe that Russia and China will sit idly by while the US carries out a war on Iran. Even if China and Russia did not respond directly to a US attack on Iran, the US would be destroyed economically in the aftermath. Perhaps this is just what shrub and the evangelicals waiting on the rapture are hoping for? One more desperate roll of the dice by shrub with the certain knowledge that if we lose the rapture will begin? Does it sound a bit like Hitler...'If the German people lose this war then they deserve to die.' There is no shortage of lunatics in the world.
I was unaware of those incidence.I'll bet many stripes were lost,and careers ruined by that sub.Long term your prob right,but the guys I knew who rode 688's seemed to be of the opinion that there wasn' anything on the ocean that wasn't their meat,when push came to shove...
I agree that the administrations move smacks of desperation.I see this as a sign of the limits of the power of the corp.model as well,the indigenous people of the world starting to say"not so fast"and making it stick.Takes energy for force projection...