DrumBeat: October 23, 2007


Chris Skrebowski on alarming new peak oil report (podcast)

Chris Skrebowski, editor of the UK Petroleum Review, speaks with GPM's Julian Darley about the remarkable new oil report from the German-based Energy Watch Group, which states that world oil production peaked in 2006 and will decline by half as soon as 2030.

T. Boone Pickens: we peaked last year, globally (video)

Legendary Texas oilman and chair of BP Capital, T. Boone Pickens, holds an impromptu video question and answer session at ASPO Houston with Global Public Media's Julian Darley and other journalists. Pickens talks about the peaking of world oil production, which he says occurred in 2006.


Opec is Anxious about the Repercussions of Oil Price Jumps

The markets' fear of the Turkish threat goes beyond the invasion of Iraq and an interruption of Kirkuk's oil supplies. The fear lies in the opening of a new front in the Middle East, especially with the expansion of Turkey's regional role in transporting oil and gas via the new pipeline system from the Caspian Sea, Iraq and Iran, and, in the future, from Egypt, via the Arab gas line via Turkey to Europe.


OPEC Takes Ecuador Back As Active Member - Energy Min

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has accepted Ecuador back as an active member, Energy Minister Galo Chiriboga told Dow Jones Newswires Tuesday.


ConocoPhillips Says J-Block Gas Production Restricted

Natural gas flows into the U.K.'s Teesside terminal from ConocoPhillips's J-Block fields in the North Sea are being constrained by difficulties processing gas.


BP profits slump amid company woes

BP PLC reported a 29 percent slump in third-quarter profits Tuesday due to higher maintenance costs and outages at key refineries, but some analysts said the worst might be over after a run of operational problems at Europe's second-largest oil company.


SENEGAL: As fuel prices soar, oil lamps becoming a luxury product

Surging petrol prices in Africa usually weigh most heavily on the emerging urban middle class, making it a struggle to put fuel in cars or motorbikes every day and to pay home electricity bills.

In Senegal, the energy shock is starting to filter down to the most isolated rural areas, where, far from electricity grids and roads, illiterate parents hoping their children will have a better life through education are worrying about how to put fuel in oil lamps so their children can do their homework.


More on Hawaii and the Superferry

Issues of environmental limits and sustainability will become even more critical as the islands begin to be affected by global climate change, and rising costs of food, energy and transportation, due to peak oil driving the costs of fuel skyhigh.

Fortunately, the state Legislature has begun to seriously recognize the magnitude of these issues. It passed the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2007, which sets an enforceable limit on Hawaii's greenhouse gas emissions, and established the Hawaii 2050 Sustainability Task Force.


Meet the Pivo 2: The car won't reverse

The electric concept car is just one of many wild designs that Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn is staking the company's future on.


HP offers technology to cut the Internet’s energy bill

The Internet is hot. Not just hot as in popularity. Hot as in heat.

It’s so hot, in fact, that data centers – those expensive warehouses full of computers that serve up information – are racking up huge power bills. According to HP’s calculations, a large data center with 70,000 square feet of space might guzzle $10.4 million worth of power in a year. Data centers require so much energy that over a three-year period, the computers inside could easily cost a company as much to plug in and cool as they did to purchase in the first place.


NIMBY muscle grows

Community groups opposing development are gaining strength - and finding some unlikely allies.


Heroes of the Environment

Though home to us all, the earth is mute. It doesn't get a vote in any congress or parliament. It doesn't own blocks of shares in the market. It doesn't rise up at a protest rally. It can't even buy a hybrid car. The earth has no voice — so someone must speak for it.

We call the men and women on the following pages heroes, but they could just as easily be called speakers for the planet, a planet that is hanging, as one of them put it years ago, in the balance.


'Bioplastics' seek market niche

So-called "bioplastics" offer the world a way to wean itself off oil, and most biodegrade to varying degrees. But their makers' green argument is complex, and environmentalists are cautious in their support.


Electricity prices see biggest jump in 25 years

The average retail price of electricity increased by more than 9 percent last year, the largest jump in 25 years, the government said Monday.

Electricity prices rose in 2006 by 10 percent or more in 14 states and the District of Columbia, according to an annual report released by the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. The average price increase was the largest since 1981.


Roll out the $100 barrel

SOME call it a curse, but those awash in oil must feel blessed at the moment. As the price of a barrel of crude touched a record $90 last week, before settling just below $89, speculators began considering an even bigger benchmark: the $100 barrel. The number rattles consumers, but their worry is probably misplaced.


Oil peak: Fact or alarmist claptrap?

We know the world is going through something of an energy crisis at the moment. Alternatives are being sought urgently but is it happening urgently enough? Certainly a report today from the German based Energy Watch Group implies that we are in serious trouble.


More evidence of tightening oil fundamentals

As global inventories decline at a sustained pace and approach critically low levels, it is not surprising that price volatility increases and that the upside price swings tend to be much stronger.


Petrol rises in price in Ukraine

The last working week (from 15 to 19 of October) characterized by continuing of price growth on all kinds of oil products in Ukraine.


Asia-Pacific airlines cut back on fuel hedging

Many Asian airlines have cut their fuel hedging in a bet that record-high oil prices cannot be sustained, but the cost-saving effort could expose them to sharp losses if a harsh winter drives prices to $100 a barrel.


Australia: BP rejects benchmark fuel prices

Petrol giant BP has given the thumbs down to benchmarking Queensland's fuel prices, saying administration costs would be passed on at the pump.


India: Pay For Your Petrol

The government has decided against raising oil prices till March, even as global petroleum prices touched $88 a barrel last week. It should be bolder. The decision points to the absence of a long-term view on energy management. With oil prices likely to stay up firm in the years to come, India should learn to contain production costs through better energy use and the use of alternative fuels. By subsidising key oil users, such as industry and transport, the government is not doing the economy or the environment any good. Sooner rather than later, energy inefficiency will undercut our competitive abilities. Why not face up to these realities when the going is good - the economy is growing at close to 9 per cent and inflation is ruling at 3 per cent - rather than put off hard decisions for future governments?


Indonesia president: crude oil to hurt budget

Soaring crude oil prices may hurt Indonesia's state budget because of the country's hefty oil subsidies, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said on Tuesday.


Fuel savings plan could include traffic restrictions, Dominican government says

In the next few days president Leonel Fernandez will announce the plan to save and use energy more efficiently, which includes certain restrictions to transport, vehicle traffic in rush hours and the public and private office schedules, among other measures.


Oil tanker companies' stocks poised to fall

The record increase in oil prices and the unprecedented number of new tankers transporting crude oil is a stock market crash waiting to happen.


Doing the right thing - a bottom-line issue

The last thing executives at Scotiabank need is an environmental group complaining about the amount of paper the bank consumes or a shareholder backlash over loans to a client who manufactures defective products.


City focus: The nuclear fall-out

The less than glowing reputation of Britain's accident-prone nuclear giant has plunged to a new low. Only months after boss Bill Coley promised shareholders and customers were in for a 'far better year', British Energy shocked investors with a new round of reactor shutdowns.


High and Dry

In the space of twenty-four hours, Webdiary received two reviews of Guy Pearse's new book, High and Dry: John Howard, climate change and the selling of Australia’s future (Penguin, 2007).


NASA scientist urges action on climate change

NASA's top climate scientist painted a dire picture Monday - from flooded coastlines to apocalyptic wildfires - unless the world finds a cleaner way to power its light bulbs, motor vehicles and factories.

“We're setting the planet on a trajectory of very dramatic consequences within this century,” James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told an overflow crowd at the University of Montana.


The Energy Solution: Do Something

Carl Pope, the executive director of the Sierra Club, likes to say that the environmental challenge can be boiled down to a pretty simple question. How are we going to fit a billion new rising consumers — mostly from India and China — into a biosphere that is increasingly full? If the world can make room for the newcomers, then we should be able to make it through the 21st century. If not, it won't matter what we do in the U.S. — the sheer scale of the rising demand for energy and raw materials in the developing will render our actions moot.


Panel Urges Global Shift on Sources of Energy

Energy experts convened by the world’s scientific academies yesterday urged nations to shift swiftly away from coal and other fuels that are the main source of climate-warming greenhouse gases and to provide new energy options for the two billion people who still mostly cook in the dark on wood or dung fires.
The full report can be downloaded here.


UK: Half of nuclear power stations closed for repairs

Energy expert Professor Ian Fells, of Newcastle University, said problems with ageing power plants could mean the lights going out if the winter was cold.

"We are relying on ageing coal-fired power stations and ageing nuclear stations, and we are not in a position to rebuild them at the moment," Prof Fells told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.


Five U.S. nuclear plants shut units for refueling and repairs

A number of nuclear generators began fall refueling outages over the weekend, while Exelon and Edison International shut down three reactors for repairs.


Australia: Diesel fuel shortage worsening

More than a hundred Victorian BP and Mobil service stations switched their diesel pumps off today.

Some regional suppliers are expected to begin running out of fuel over the next two days.

Mobil will not say what was causing the problem but says its Altona Refinery is now back up to full production.


Sub-Sahara needs $563 billion for power

The sub-Saharan African electricity supply market requires a total investment of US$563 billion over the next 20 years, growth consulting company Frost & Sullivan has said.


China, the US, and space solar power

China is already experiencing shortages. The Yangtze Delta region, which includes Shanghai and the provinces of Jiangsu and Zhijiang and contributes almost 20% of China’s GDP, faced capacity shortages of four to five gigawatts during peak summer demand in 2003. In spite of a furious effort to develop new power sources, including dam building and new coal-fired power plants, China’s economic growth is outstripping its capacity to generate the terawatts needed to keep it going.


Far East: The newest global Oil hub

Forget the Middle East. Forget West Africa. The newest oil hub with be in the Far East, with companies plopping down claims and interests in places like the Timor Sea or Bengal Bay.


Vietnam: Oil, gold, food, construction material prices escalate

Dang Vinh Sang, CEO of Ho Chi Minh City-based Saigon Petro said his firm imported petrol from Singapore at $90 a barrel on Thursday. Due to the government cap on fuel prices plus import tax, Vietnamese enterprises are losing up to VND900 for one liter sold, he added.


After Peak Oil, Peak Food

...Forget about how you’ll afford gas to put in your car to get to work as declining production, increasing demand, and the devaluation of the dollar push us towards $100/barrel oil. What needs to be understood is that peak oil likely means peak food. About 17% of US energy use goes into agriculture. The food in the grocery store that you buy traveled a long way to get to you, and it was probably grown with fossil-fuel intensive fertilizers and pesticides. As of 1994, it took 400 gallons of oil and equivalents to feed each US citizen, and that number has probably gone up.


Yes, We're in Peak Oil Today

On August 22, 2005, I wrote an article asking whether the world was in peak oil. In my first paragraph I answered, "It's too early to tell, although the market does show signs of being close to an absolute production limit."

A little over two years later, I think it's prudent, today, to change the answer to a provisional yes.


Labour's plan to abandon renewable energy targets

Ministers are planning a U-turn on Britain's pledges to combat climate change that "effectively abolishes" its targets to rapidly expand the use of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power.

Leaked documents seen by the Guardian show that Gordon Brown will be advised today that the target Tony Blair signed up to this year for 20% of all European energy to come from renewable sources by 2020 is expensive and faces "severe practical difficulties".


Jakarta plans to cut gas exports to Japan

INDONESIA wants to cut its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Japan from 12 to three million tonnes per year after current contracts between the two nations expire, an official said yesterday.

Indonesia, which is Japan's largest supplier of LNG, has said that it needs more gas to meet the soaring local demand for power, amid record oil prices. It plans to lower the volume of its exports to Japan from 2011 to 2016.

'Japan wants us to keep volume at 12 million tonnes per annum but we disagree. We are still negotiating,' said Mr Iin Arifin, vice-president of state oil and gas firm Pertamina.


China is No Place for Electric Cars - Toyota

"In France, 80 percent of electricity is produced by nuclear stations so if electric cars replace fossil fuel cars then you have a clear reduction in the emission of CO2," said Tatehito Ueda, a managing officer at Toyota Motor Corp.

"But in China they make electricity by burning coal, so China is not the place for electric cars," he told the Nikkei International Automotive Conference in Tokyo.


World's carbon dioxide emissions rising at alarming rate

Carbon dioxide — the greenhouse gas considered most responsible for global warming — has been emitted into the Earth's atmosphere at a dramatically accelerating pace since 2000, researchers reported Monday.

"Carbon dioxide is rising at a much faster rate than before," says study co-author Christopher Field, director of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology in California. "In the 1990s, CO2 emissions increased by about 1.3% per year. Since 2000, the growth rate has been 3.3% per year." The researchers calculate that global carbon-dioxide emissions were 35% higher in 2006 than in 1990.

What's especially troubling, notes lead author Josep Canadell of Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, is most climate scenarios used by scientists and policymakers to predict temperature increases are based on the 1.3% rise. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide warm the planet by trapping heat in the atmosphere.


Energy poses major 21st century crisis: scientists

Energy poses one of the greatest threats facing humanity this century, the world's leading academies of science warned Monday, highlighting the peril of oil wars and climate change driven by addiction to fossil fuels.

Nations must provide power for the 1.6 billion people who live without electricity and wean themselves off energy sources that stoke global warming and geopolitical conflict, the scientists demanded.

"Making the transition to a sustainable energy future is one of the central challenges humankind faces in this century," they said.


No, we're not running out of oil

“Peak oil,” the headline read over Sunday's Prairie Voices interview.

“Just how long will it last?”

The correct answer is “Forever.” As MIT professor Morris Adelman put it, “The great oil shortage is like the horizon, always receding as one moves toward it.” But Adelman's is a fundamental insight of economics, a science that considers human behavior and so is a better tool for analyzing scarcity than is geology.


Chile to Lay Claim to Piece of Antarctica

Chile's foreign minister said Monday that his country will ask the U.N. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf to recognize Santiago's claim of sovereignty over a chunk of Antarctica.


Dick Cheney’s Halliburton to Profit as Peak Oil Approaches

Offshore is the last great frontier in the oil business, the only undiscovered country out there, unless you think there’s oil on the moon. The trouble with going offshore is that it’s incredibly expensive and ridiculously hard to do. There are a handful of firms in the world with the engineering know-how to find and produce oil from the depths of the sea. You reckon business will be good for them in the coming years?


Lukoil, Hydro Freeze Development of Iranian Oil Field

Lukoil OAO vice president Leonid Fedun said the joint development of the Anaran oil block in western Iran with Norsk Hydro ASA has been suspended because of US sanctions against foreign investment in the Iranian energy sector, Interfax reported.


Eni-Led Consortium Signs Memorandum on Kashagan

The Eni SpA (E)-led consortium developing the giant Kashagan oil field Monday signed a memorandum of understanding with the Kazakh authorities committing to continuing talks beyond today's deadline.


Desire and the green cure

I USED TO feel bad about mindless consumerism but not any more. The green movement has come to my rescue. With every purchase, I can now enjoy the warm glow of helping develop environmentally sound practices.


Peak Oil to discuss water privatization

The Peak Oil Action Group will hold a discussion tonight on the negative effects of the global effort to privatize water, according to a news release.


Wine on the water as Tesco turns to barges to cut emissions

"This move will be like taking a step back to the pre-car days of the late Victorian era, when a lot of cargo was still transported by canal," said Laurie McIlwee, the supermarket chain's distribution director. "We are continually reviewing alternative green methods of transporting cargo and this is our first waterborne project within the UK. We are already looking at other areas where we can move freight on waterways.

"Reducing carbon emissions and looking at how we can make the business more environmentally friendly is a priority, and by 2012 we aim to halve the amount of carbon emitted per case of goods delivered."


DeDomenico was a transportation visionary

The Napa Valley owes great thanks to Vince, who had a great deal of foresight and vision that will be increasingly relevant in this age of global warming and pending “peak oil.” Unlike many communities in the U.S., we won’t have to rebuild our public transportation system from scratch, since Vince was kind enough to preserve a strong foundation on which we can build. For the most part, the railroad that has been here since the 1870s is still here thanks to Vince DeDomenico. He saw the value of the railroad when many in this valley saw only their own convenience and resentment against tourism.


Scientists see coal as key challenge

The proliferation of coal-burning power plants around the world may pose "the single greatest challenge" to averting dangerous climate change, an international panel of scientists reported Monday.


Caribbean urged to face warming risks

The Caribbean tourism industry, the lifeblood for many island economies, needs to brace itself for stronger hurricanes, more frequent droughts and rising sea levels resulting from global warming, scientists said Monday.


Global warming may be leading to higher rice yields in China: IRRI

Global warming appears to have led to higher rice yields in northern China while free trade, changing diets, and rapid urbanisation is leading to a decline in rice production elsewhere, officials from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) said.

    THIS JUST IN: Give it up for the Long Johns

This 8 min. movie both explains subprime better than we ever could, and has us rolling off our chairs.

    Don't miss it, it’s too funny!!!


----------------

A new Finance Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.

Big US banks continue to try to put together a rescue fund in order to avoid a firesale of the assets backing off-balance-sheet structured investment vehicles, but the voices of the critics who would like to see an 'orderly repricing' of these assets grow louder. Alan Greenspan , who now says the credit crunch was "an accident waiting to happen", is notable among them.

It remains to be seen how orderly such a repricing of assets would be, as well as how broadly and how quickly financial contagion could spread the fallout.


US loan default problems deepen

The Financial Times is reporting that poor quarterly results from banks across the US over the past two weeks suggest credit problems once confined to high-risk mortgage borrowers are spreading across the consumer landscape, posing new risks to the economy and weighing heavily on the markets.

US banks have raised reserves for loan losses by at least $6 Billion over the second quarter and by even larger amounts from last year, indicating financial executives believe consumers will be increasingly unable to make payments on various consumer loans. Banks are adding to reserves not just for defaults on mortgages, but also on home equity loans, car notes and credit cards debts.

"What started out merely as a subprime problem has expanded more broadly in the mortgage space and problems are getting worse at a faster pace than many had expected," said Michael Mayo, Deutsche Bank analyst, reported the Financial Times.

Video: agreed - very funny 8 minutes worth!

RE: Chile's antarctic claim.

This comes on the heals of the UK announcement last week that they were renewing their antarctic claim. The Argentines are sure to follow, then all of the other countries. Thus does the Antarctic Treaty start to unwind.

Meanwhile, the US or the USSR are in the process of pulling out of one arms control treaty after the other. Not to mention the US all but trashing its compliance with both the Geneva Conventions and the UN Charter.

It looks like the first part of the 21st century is going to see the progressive un-doing of the entire system of treaties so painstakingly crafted over the last part of the 20th century.

Peak Treaties.

This is what the BBC said about the British claim:

The claim, which the spokeswoman stressed is still being prepared in advance of a May 2009 United Nations deadline, could extend Britain's stake for Antarctic waters by more than 1 million sq km (386,000 sq miles) and is permitted under the Law of the Sea Convention.
"This has been under consideration for many years," the spokeswoman said of the move, which she said will not affect the more recent environmental protections put into the Antarctic Treaty in 1991.
"It would be a claim in name only, we wouldn't act because doing any mineral exploitation contravenes the treaty."

So it seems that rather than going against the current treaty, this round of claims is just preparing for the next treaty within the UN.

Another viewpoint is that polar/deepwater oil exploitation will be much more expensive than current fields. Capital investments, including government incentives, will not be made unless there is clear title (i.e. ownership). The polar regions and the vast deepwater ocean floor cannot be exploited while held in common.

I think that it is a mistake to conflate the territorial claims with arms control treaty pullouts.

Slippery Slope,
Anything can be done by treaty, including exploiting resources that are held i common. What would be the best possible outcome would be for the nations of the earth to unite and dedicate the proceeds from development to a common world goal, such as providing renewable electricity and access to the internet to the 1.6 billion people who currently lack electric energy. This would enrich the whole earth

Bob Ebersole

Bob, are you suggesting a communal action by and for the people of the earth? Personally I think that is a great idea but I doubt it will fly on Pennsylvania Ave or Wall St. The 'new' America, like gilded age America, cannot stand the thought of any idea the least bit socialistic (cooperative). As we sit here typing our dear political and economic leaders are doing all in their power to dismantle the remnants of FDRs legacy. Since their attempts to privatize social security and medicare/caid did not fly they will simply inflate the dollar to the point that these programs will be meaningless...Then they will be able to claim that since the programs are meaningless they should be scrapped in favor of _____ ...fill in the blank.

River,
That pendelum swing is over, we are on the return.

But kids these days haven't been educated in acting communally. So we need to make suggestions and remind them that its a possibility.

Bob Ebersole

I think you're certainly tapping the nail on the head here... most people in the 15-35 range (and many in the 35-45 range) just seem to have no schooling, or life experience, in working together or helping each other. It is quite shocking.

Now this is relevant to growing up in the UK, but the US cannot have been THAT different...

I guess I grew up with parents who were born and grew up just after the war, and grandparents who were part of that "greatest generation". As a result I grew up with stories of rationing (which was only phased out as my parents were younger), and pulling together. There was a communal spirit that sort of faded...
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain

The United States is a failing empire. When the state provides no value to the nation the state's currency collapses. I'm not talking about the dollar, I'm talking about goodwill on the part of the citizens. Bush has burned 80% of the electorate to the point where they'd be happy to see him cuffed, stuffed, and set adrift in hopes the North Atlantic Drift will carry him to the Hague. While he is a lightning rod it is the bankrupt ideology he represents that so irritates the people.

Assuming they don't completely crash the economy and put us into martial law so we can continue to thrive under Great Leader's marvelous decision making the citizens of this country are going to clean house in 2008, perhaps handing the presidency as well as a two thirds majority in both houses to the Democratic party. They're only a different flavor of the same problem, mind you, but with constant heat and voter involvement they'll move. A good bit of that heat will come from the triumvirate of PO, AGW, and ARM scam, and perhaps we get another New Deal.

or

the political establishment, corporate media et al will take the PO, AGW and ARM scam resultant problems and blame them on the Democrats causing a quick shift back...

the interests against a new New Deal are much more powerful and entrenched than before IMHO

--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain

After Stephen Colbert goes on to landslide the state of South Carolina in the primaries (both Republican and Democratic tickets, of course), perhaps he'll register for the other states primaries and sweep the nation.

IMO people are going to be surprised. The socially responsible form of business in western Europe worked for a long time, but it will soon collapse in many countries due to the mass of unemployable third world immigration.

This is why the left is so rabid for immediate implementation of their agenda, the leaders are smart and know exactly that soon their model will be shown to be a utter failure.

It is very simple, one can not have half the people producing and half the people using. Once a critical mass of users is achieved, the producers in ever larger numbers will take the easy way out and join the users.

This is the real tragedy in our country, we have not reached Peak users.

The Grand Forks Herald piece, yet another case of false premise. "Take copper for example..." Copper is not energy and the energy cost of extracting is is finite. Therefore, according to conventional analysis, the economic cost is also finite and therefore there will be a price at which difficult to extract copper becomes renditable. Not so energy, where energy return on energy investment can be negative, rendering the resource useless.

Of course, these papers also routinely print editorials in denial of other basic scientific limits or facts, so what's the surprise. It's just the minor matter of the consequences of such fallacy being so sad.

ciao,
Bruce

I don't want to bash economists, but this line stands out:

But Adelman's is a fundamental insight of economics, a science that considers human behavior and so is a better tool for analyzing scarcity than is geology.

Perhaps if one edited it to read "the price of that scarcity". However, economics doesn't really get that right, either--at least not right away.

Yeah, that line brought to mind the Desert Island where the Economist chimes in with; 'First, Imagine we have a can-opener..'

Notice the subtle switch from talking about peak oil to talking about running out? Much easier to take out the "running out of oil" strawman than deal with the peak oil elephant about to sit on you.

My favorite was this part:

Think of it. Has humanity run out of any natural resource, including rare metals such as gold or silver? No? Then why should oil be any different?

What a maroon. The answer, of course, is YES. Running out of natural resources has happened quite a bit in the past, and is often accompanied by all manner of unpleasantness.

Or does he think the inhabitants of Easter Island don't count as human?

Yeah, but those Easter Islanders, and all past "civilizations" that collapsed, were primitive idiots who didn't know wtf they were doing. We have a real civilization now, we're much smarter than they were, so the rules of nature no longer apply.

We have TECHNOLOGY!! They didn't. So there!

and pointing out that the earth is round, therefore finite, is just a minor scientific detail. Crazy scientists...

But the EARTH is sooo big, and Easter Island sooo tiny! How can you compare the two? Or, maybe Easter Island didn't have any economists...

The Pale Blue Dot...Earth from 4 billion miles out...

I've been carrying that picture in my wallet for about 5 years now. Keeps me humble...

You do realize that from a galactic perspective that is still an extreme close-up?

And from the perspective of the whole universe, our entire galaxy is a mere fly speck.

Actually, this is what has always attracted me to astronomy. The universe is so huge that the human race has, and never will have, the capacity to "bleep" it up! I've heard people say things like "The universe cares about us". Bull-puckey. The universe is still mostly hydrogen, and hydrogen doesn't give a damn!!

Over the centruries we've gradually moved from the egocentric idea that the universe revolved around us, that we were the centre of the universe, to a much more accurate picture, that our tiny planet is part of an almost 'infinite' whole.

It's truly amazing just how big our galaxy is and even travelling at light speed how long it would take us to move around. I often wonder that science-fiction, though fiction, has given us a very distorted idea of how big the universe is and how small we are in comparison. What's virtually impossible in the real world, real space travel, is possible in our vivid imaginations, and this is probably what makes us such a charming species.

What would perhaps be even more amazing would be if we really were the only planet in this almost incomprehensible vastness of space that contained intelligent life. If we were really IT, all there is! That we were truly unique in the seemingly endless universe. That something so vast only contained a single life-supporting planet is hard to comprehend, at least for me. It seems odd, almost a bizarre paradox, close to a divine riddle, why us and why here?

So everytime a species dies out, everytime someone dies unecessarily through famine or war or neglect, something truly fantastic and unique disappears for ever. Seen in such a perspective, that life may be unique to our planet, then surely taking any form of life by choice is a crime of cosmic proportions. And now I'm starting to sound like a space cadet on the brigde of the Enterprise, sorry.

I often wonder that science-fiction, though fiction, has given us a very distorted idea of how big the universe is and how small we are in comparison.

Not all of it, though. Douglas Adams did try...

Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space.

(The Hitchhiker's guide to the Galaxy)

and also...

The Total Perspective Vortex is the most horrible torture device to which a sentient being can be subjected. Located on Frogstar World B, it shows its victim the entire unimaginable infinity of the universe with a very tiny marker that says "You Are Here" which points to a microscopic dot on a microscopic dot.
The machine was originally invented by one Trin Tragula in order to annoy his wife. Because she was forever nagging him for having no sense of proportion, he decided to invent something that would show her what having a sense of proportion really meant. Unfortunately the shock of being placed in the Vortex destroyed her brain, but Trin Tragula's grief was tempered by the knowledge that he had been right and she had been wrong. The Total Perspective Vortex had proved that in an infinite universe the one thing sentient life cannot afford to have is a sense of proportion.

AKH

Life might be found here and there on a very small fraction of planetary systems (which are appearing to be very common). The right combination of star size and type, orbit, planetary mass, etc. establishes a relatively narrow window in which a planet with liquid H2O can exist. One can speculate about other life chemistries, but H20 + organic chemistry has so much in its favor that it seems unlikely that the level of complexity that has evolved in terrestrial life could be matched with any other chemical basis.

I suspect that intelligent life must be exceedingly rare, if it exists elsewhere at all. I don't know if we're IT for the whole universe, but for the galaxy, that is certainly a real possibility.

Buuut if intelligent life exists one has to assume that you have a good chance that it will expand into its solar system and then on towards the starts. Even with slow star ships you only new a few million years to populate the galaxy. And you would think that some will manage to move between galaxies.
Its been 15 billion years.

Where are the aliens ?

I suspect we are under quarantine till we grow up. If I was a smart Alien I'd not let humans as they exist now spread through the galaxy.

There's also the peak oil answer. Maybe highly technical civilizations exhaust their resources and collapse before getting very far into space.

The ones that are smart enough not to do that can't support technology complex enough to get them off the planet.


Maybe highly technical civilizations exhaust their resources and collapse before getting very far into space.

That's what Carl Sagan thought ..

Triff ..

Buuut if intelligent life exists one has to assume that you have a good chance that it will expand into its solar system and then on towards the starts. Even with slow star ships you only new a few million years to populate the galaxy. And you would think that some will manage to move between galaxies.
Its been 15 billion years.

With fast starships, it would take only a few hundred years to reach the nearest star that just might have a planet similar to ours. If, after getting there, you would find out you were mistaken, then a few more hundred years to get to the next one. Not very likely.

But with slow starships, it would take a few thousand years. Generations would have to live and die on the ship. And the next galzxy. Well that would take a few million years to make the trip. It takes light about over a million years to make the trip.

The distance between the stars is unimaginably great. And we can only detect planetary presence by the wobble of the star. Small planets, like the earth, do not induce any detectable wobble whatsoever so you would not know until you got there if an earth size planet existed or not. And if it was just the right distance from the star, or if the atmosphere had any oxygen or water or what the atmospheric pressure happen to be or a thousand other possible things that would prevent the planet from supporting earth life if we could ever possibly get there.

If intelligent life exist in our galaxy it is extremely unlikely that it would ever make its way to another planet in another solar system. And making its way across millions of light years to another galaxy? Not a chance!

Ron Patterson

Mr Patterson- you seem to have put some thought into this issue and have a more rigorous scientific background than I, so could you please indulge my line of inquiry for a minute? Would you agree that we have made some signficant discoveries recently of life-potential planets? So that it would be possible to reduce the error rate of barren planets that you refer to? That is, in theory, we could refine our search for biota-friendly planets in time and hone in on a few with a relatively high potential...ok,now assuming that cosmic radiation and the time/distances involved make interplanetary travel effectively impossible for living tissue, what about the possibility of shielded launches of either very simple life forms or life-potential complex molecules that could be recombined after their 200 year journey? I assume this is the direction that Fred Hoyle was going, and I should acquaint myself with his work, but I haven't. I can't get this issue ever satisfyingly addressed, but given the complete failure of scientists over the past 50 years to create a self-replicating molecule while stacking the deck a thousand ways does give one pause to consider the possibility of a seeded Earth. They haven't even been able to create the precursor to the precursor to the precursor of self-replication, according to an article in SciAm from last June, I believe. Anyway, it does seem as though if you're just shooting viruses or prions or chemicals into space, the engineering challenges seem surmountable, no?