 | Avoiding Harmful Solutions (to Our Climate and Energy Problems) | The Oil Drum | Oil Closes above $93 today...in the next month, CLZ07/CLF08 will... |  |
DrumBeat: October 29, 2007
Posted by Leanan on October 29, 2007 - 8:54am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Crude Oil Climbs to Record $93.80 as Mexico Cuts Gulf Output
Crude oil for December delivery rose $1.59, or 1.7 percent, to $93.45 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures climbed to $93.80, the highest since trading began in 1983.Brent crude oil for December settlement rose $1.53, or 1.7 percent, to $90.22 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent reached $90.49, the highest since trading began in 1988.
The oil market "may be only one or two events away from" $100-plus oil, Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said in remarks prepared for a conference today at Georgetown University.
"Golden age" of oil refining margins to end
The global "golden age" of record refining profits is likely to be over by the end of the decade thanks to more capacity from new plants and higher costs due to record crude prices, industry analysts say.Signs the boom is faltering have already emerged. ConocoPhillips suspended production at its German refinery for a month in August due to low margins, an unusually long shutdown in the peak summer driving season.
China diesel squeeze persists as oil tops $93
China's worst diesel rationing in four years may last several more weeks as record oil prices choke output from independent refineries and the top suppliers show no rush to top up imports, industry officials said on Monday.
Tokyo Electric to Pay Record Price for Fuel Oil From Nippon Oil
Tokyo Electric Power Co., Oji Paper Co. and other Japanese fuel oil users will pay Nippon Oil Corp. record prices in the three months to December.
Enbridge to Further Expand N.D. Pipeline
The $150 million expansion will increase total system capacity from 110,000 barrels per day to 161,000 barrels per day. The project will add 40,000 barrels per day of capacity from the western end of the system to Minot, N.D., and 51,000 barrels per day of capacity from Minot to Clearbrook, Minn. Enbridge expects the expansion to come into service by late 2009.
Flying J Shuts Unit at California Refinery After Power Failure
Flying J Inc., a closely held operator of refineries in Utah and California, shut a hydrocracking unit after losing an electrical transformer.
Russia to open oil futures exchange
Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development and Trade is setting up a domestic oil futures exchange, which will trade not only the best-known Russian crude, Urals, but also the new export blend REBCO.
PetroChina to Raise $8.9 Billion in China Share Sale
PetroChina Co., the nation's largest oil producer, will raise 66.8 billion yuan ($8.9 billion) in the world's biggest share sale this year to expand refineries and increase output at oilfields.
Supreme Court to review Exxon Valdez case
The Supreme Court on Monday agreed to decide whether Exxon Mobil Corp. should pay $2.5 billion in punitive damages in connection with the huge Exxon Valdez oil spill that fouled more than 1,200 miles of Alaskan coastline in 1989.The high court stepped into the long-running battle over the damages that Exxon Mobil owes in the spillage of 11 million gallons of oil into Alaska’s Prince William Sound, the worst oil spill in U.S. history.
A breakthrough in the India-US nuclear deal
India’s nuclear deal with the US might be saved. After weeks of bad news, with the Indian government failing to get its Communist-led parliamentary allies on side, the ground is at last shifting and it looks as if the Bharatiya Janata Party, India’s main opposition which has been objecting to the deal, might save the day.
The Last Days of the PetroDollar
The world's economy runs on oil, and as long as all the oil producing nations demanded dollars for their crude then American dollars were in reality backed by oil. In other words, it was Bretton Woods II....Being able to print the world's reserve currency at no cost also means that interest rates are kept at an artificially low level because foreigners need our dollars more than we need their savings. It also means that massive trade deficits are not an important issue because we can always print more dollars to pay for the goods that other nations produce.
Mexico Pemex Halts One-Fifth of Crude Output on Storm
State oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos, the third-largest supplier to the U.S., shut down output of 200,000 barrels at noon New York time yesterday and was planning to idle wells that produce a further 400,000 barrels by midnight in Mexico, Carlos Ramirez, a company spokesman in Mexico City, said late yesterday. The wells would be shut until at least Oct. 30, Ramirez said, without elaborating. Mexico pumps about 3.1 million barrels of crude a day."We stopped production because there's no way to move the crude," he said.
Oil barons turn to hi-tech solutions
Rising energy costs and uncertain reserves are prompting the oil industry to look to technology to increase output from existing fields and find new sources.The industry is gearing up for higher prices and is trying out new technological methods to extract the maximum from each well.
Most fields yield only 35 per cent of their oil, but Saudi Aramco has raised that to 50 per cent using technological innovation and is aiming for 70 per cent by 2027.
James Mound's Weekend Commodities Review
The market suckered in a lot of shorts, me included, and then rocketed back to fresh highs amid growing geopolitical concerns. While the concept of peak oil (the end of the growth cycle of this limited life natural resource) is well supported, it does not necessarily support the current extremes. The market is in a short covering frenzy, overextended beyond what any normal relative strength scale would measure and setting up for a serious bull suck-in and shakeout.
UK: Energy questions that will need to be answered
Environmentalist Jeremy Leggett, who wrote a book about oil depletion called Half Gone, says that the British government and our energy industry is in “institutionalised denial”.It’s chilling (and will get chillier) and we can’t say we weren’t warned, but both answers and action seem as elusive as ever.
“Hydrogen is a very promising fuel for the future,” says Greg Naterer, a UOIT professor and researcher.Dr. Naterer has much reason to be optimistic. He is the lead researcher on a multi-million dollar project that is hoping to solve at least part of the world’s energy crisis.
Deffeyes has updated his web site: Feedback Loops
Jeff Vail posted on www.theoildrum.com/node/3017 a list of feedback loops that would diminish oil availability after the oil peak. Vail's piece is thoughtful. I highly recommend reading it, preferably before reading my comments about it.Vail identifies five feedbacks from a diminished oil supply that would make the problem even worse. I'll take the risk of stating them briefly...
Peak Oil And Famine: Four Billion Deaths
At some point in the early years of the 21st century, there will be a clash of two giant forces: overpopulation and oil depletion. That much has been known for a long time. It is also well known that population must eventually decline in order to match the decline in oil production. A further problem, however, is that it will be impossible to get those two giant forces into equilibrium in any gentle fashion, because of a matter that is rarely considered: that in every year that has gone by — and every year that will arrive — the population of the earth is automatically adjusted so that it is almost exactly equal to its carrying capacity. We are always barely surviving. Population growth is soaring, whereas oil production is plunging. If, at the start of any year, the world’s population is greater than its carrying capacity, only simple arithmetic is needed to see that the difference between the two numbers means that mortality will be above the normal by the end of that year. In fact, over the course of the 21st century there will be about 4 billion deaths (probably about 3.6, to be more precise) above normal.
Strategic Implications of the Surge in Oil Prices
The enrichment of the oil-producing states and the growing dependence on Arab oil will strengthen those states politically, particularly in the eyes of oil importers, including those in Asia whose role in global affairs is growing. Moreover, some companies may prefer not to do business with Israel or invest in Israeli companies in order not to harm ties with Arab states and Iran. At the same time, political use of the oil weapons is not likely in the foreseeable future given the lack of solidarity in the Arab world and the state of relations between the oil-producing states and the West.
We cannot allow institutions like the World Bank to impose ill-conceived carbon-based energy reforms on developing nations.
Great Lakes key front in water wars
While the West burns and the Southeast bakes, there is little to suggest a large-scale, climatological catastrophe playing out any time soon in the Midwest. In fact, farmers in Iowa and Minnesota had trouble last week harvesting their corn and soybean crops because there had been too much rain.But potentially huge battles over water are looming in the Great Lakes region as cities, towns and states near and far fight for access to the world's largest body of fresh surface water, all of it residing in the five Great Lakes.
Massachussetts: Water levels fall; drought fears on rise
The lawn is scorched, the saplings are shriveled, and the local ponds and streams are lower than usual.It's not as bad as Malibu, Calif., Atlanta, or the Great Lakes, but Massachusetts is suffering from drought.
Oil leaps to record over $93 on Mexico, dollar
Oil leapt to a record high for a third day on Monday, surpassing $93 as Mexico briefly halted one-fifth of its production and the dollar struck new lows.U.S. crude, which hit a high of $93.20 a barrel earlier, was up $1.02 cents at $92.88 by 8:07 a.m. EST. London Brent, which hit a record high $90, was up 89 cents at $89.58.
Oil price likely to hit high of 1979
Crude oil prices appear increasingly likely to hit their real terms record, that was reached during the second oil crisis in 1979, as nominal prices soar above Dollars 90 a barrel.
Could Crude Oil $100 Cause the Next Credit Crunch?
The Financial Sector is still coming to terms with the US Subprime Mortgages induced credit crunch, could again be in the line of fire of a new credit crunch caused by crude oil surging to $100, triggering a similar collapse of hedge funds and put the banking sector under renewed pressure as the crude oil credit crunch contagion spreads.
China to reach peak oil production as early as 2015
China will see domestic oil production peak as early as 2015 with an annual output of 190 million tons, while gas production is expected to peak sometime around 2035 with an annual output of 120 billion cubic meters, a leading energy scholar said at an industry forum held in Beijing over the weekend.
Middle East can leave oily old cycle in the past
A new power is taking its place in the world economy. After the disruptive emergence of China and India as key players with a decisive role in shaping global economic events, the Middle East is joining the race to challenge the dominance of the industrial West.
Iran Adapts to Economic Pressure
Confronted by mounting U.S. and U.N. pressure, Iran has been steadily shifting its trade from West to East and, with the benefit of record high oil prices, is likely to be able to withstand the new U.S. sanctions, according to U.S., European and Iranian analysts.
California gears up for car emissions fight
California plans to sue the Environmental Protection Agency this week for delaying a decision over whether to let the state aggressively reduce car and truck tailpipe emissions. The lawsuit's outcome could affect not only the California law aimed at cutting greenhouse gases but also the ability of other states to take similar actions.
GM to set up research center in Shanghai
General Motors Corp. said Monday it will set up a $250 million alternative-fuel research center in Shanghai amid efforts by global automakers to produce commercially viable alternatives to gasoline engines.
'Wall of money' set to flow into Asian renewable energy
Green investors, pension funds and private equity managers have a "wall of money" poised to flow into renewable energy ventures in Asia where demand for energy is growing exponentially, say observers. Investable opportunities may remain frustratingly elusive but the sector could soon explode into life.
The Philippines: 170 scientists urge halt to oil exploration
Marine scientists from all over the Philippines have called on the government to stop the oil exploration initiated by the Department of Energy in Tañon Strait because of threats it poses on whales, dolphins, fish and other marine creatures, people’s livelihood, and potentially irreplaceable and invaluable natural heritage.
Climate Change's Uncertainty Principle
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its first report in 1990 predicted that temperatures would warm by 0.5 degree Fahrenheit (0.3 degree Celsius) per decade if no efforts were made to restrain greenhouse gas emissions. But the panel of scientists and other experts was wrong: By 2001, the group estimated that average temperatures would increase by 2.7 to 8.1 degrees F (1.5 to 4.5 degrees C) in the 21st century, and they raised the lower end to 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) this year in their most recent report. In essence, neither this international team of experts nor any other can say with any certainty just how bad global warming may get.
Cement Industry Is at Center of Climate Change Debate
But making cement means making pollution, in the form of carbon dioxide emissions. Cement plants account for 5 percent of global emissions of carbon dioxide, the main cause of global warming. Cement has no viable recycling potential; each new road, each new building needs new cement.Now, green incentives may be increasing pollution. The European Union subsidizes Western companies that buy outmoded cement plants in poor countries and refit them with green technology. But the greenest technologies can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by only about 20 percent.
Now with 50 percent less truth
WHEN THE top public health official of the United States addressed the Senate last Tuesday on the health impact of global warming in this country, the senators - and the public - had a right to expect Julie Gerberding's full, unvarnished thoughts on this important issue. That's not what they got. In another case of the White House censoring what the public learns about climate change, the administration cut her testimony in half.
While reading the new comments in the other day's thread I wondered what the US$ was currently doing so I went over to the Bloomberg Benchmark Currency page and about had a heart-attack.
The US dollar is way below parity with the Canadian dollar now.
The last few hours show a little uptick in the generally dismal trend of the dollar index. FIIK what it means.
| The problem will solve itself.
| But not in a nice way.
This is the sound of the other shoe dropping, courtesy of "Helicopter Ben's" 1/2% drop in interest rates.
Given the US negative balance of trade, our interest rates actually needed to be RAISED just to maintain the value of the US$. Obviously, the decision was made to go the other way, so this is the inevitable consequence.
You ain't seen nothin, yet. . .
The fed can raise or lower the short term rate as they wish. All other bond rates are set by the market. If demand for a specific bond (2 yr, 3yr, 10 yr, 30year paper)declines the yield rises. Foreign central banks and investors are growing tired IMHO of the suckers game they have been playing for the past 6 years as the US$ index declined by 50%.
When foreign investors stop buying US federal and corporate debt the interest rates for these bonds will rise for everything except the short term interbank rates the US Fed controls.
If the Chinese and oil producers decide they no longer want to carry the US consumer and their increasingly worthless currency interest rates will go through the roof.
Yup, but they are going to do it anyway, because the market is awash with people that don't understand economics. When investors see the Fed drop rates the immediate go on a buying spree in equities, because it worked in the past twenty five years. This gives the false preception that everything is just fine.
Well that isn't entirely correct. The Fed and the US treasury dept. can directly purchase gov't bonds (Repos) and have been doing a fine job purchasing the treasures sold off by Japan and China. The Treasury dept. has also begun to opening the door to purchase Commericial paper via MLEC. The Fed has also opened the door to accepting MBS too.
http://www.pimco.com/TopNav/Home/Default.htm (All Treasury rates are far below the official overnight rate of 4.75%)
Well this is probably untrue because of the Fed and Treasury can use Repos to keep the yields of gov't bonds low. But it would cause costs for imports to soar. I don't either the Fed or Treasury is concerned about the damage rising imports will cause. In fact, Paulson has been hard at work trying to get the Chinese to revalue their currency. Its seems obvious to me that that are deliberately engineering a lower dollar, on the false premise that this is the time to correct trade imbalances. It may take a couple of years before Washington figures out that they killed the US by trying to fix trade imbalances. Its almost certainly going to cause a global depression. If the US dollar goes under (loses its AAA bond rating) it will likely be the end of the United states some years later. We will likely see the beginning of the "Divided States of America" as foriegners will be unwilling to accept US currency and individual states will print local currencies. Sooner or later, Americans (and foriegners) will loose all faith and interest in Washington. When that happens its likely that states will assume more control over their own interests and we end up with a figure head federal gov't (like the British Monarchy) that is virtually powerless.
Paulson, Bernanke and the Goldman mafia tell the sheeple one thing
Then there is the part they tell their own people
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/california-v...
Crude just hit $94/gallon according to this article in the Sydney Morning Herald.....
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/crude-oil-leaps-to-us94/2007/10/30/1...
Ishtar
The Fed's telegraphing another % rate cut this week.
The race is on. Housing destroying $'s faster than the Fed can create them.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
The Federal Reserve nearly always tends to follow the market.
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/fedfollows.gif
I had quite a bit of a surprise on saturday evening at 10.40 pm when I came home. My wife was watching the news on our national TV program "France 3", (edition du soir 27/10/2007). It may be the lest watched news edition from the MSM but it still is MSM.
There was the presentator chating with Jerome Bonaldi, a french journalist, who has written a book called "life without (almost) any oil" (la vie (presque) sans pétrole). There they sat, talking without any passion about TEOTWAWKI. Really. Without any inflections, precautions or other circonvolutions. Bonaldi said that, after interviewing some scientists economists geologists et all, he thought oil was headed for 380$, that people couldn't afford it any more and that our society would morph completely. It's the end of the era of plenty he said. I've read his book, he is not a doomer. He thinks we will revert to transport by horse for many and suppress international trade. We will see an economy of recycling. He sees a break down of society into small components.
I think he reads TOD since he used the "human slave analogy" to represent our dependance on oil. So Jerome Bonaldi, if you read this, know that there are now at least 3 Jeromes reading this blog.
Jerome KOK
Bourg en Bresse
Interesting!
But TOD can't take credit for the "energy slave" analogy. Other have used it, and probably Pierre Chomat deserves the most credit for popularizing it (ergamine).
Thanks !
You have an amazing amount of culture.
Leanan,
Sorry for going off-thread. How can I open the drumbeat a second time and find new posts. I currently use the "find" function on my browser and search for [new. Is there an easier way?
Thanks,
CAS
No, I'm afraid not. That's how we all do it.
It's better than it was. Up until recently, posting a message nuked all the new flags. Now it doesn't.
Hello all,
After the presentation on Australia, etc., have been thinking hard about the general consequences of PO for Europe and particularly France.
Notice that there are other French people here and wondered if they are aware of any studies (TOD or other) on the subject and if they would care to discuss it.
Ciao,
François
Hello FB
I have thought a bit about that, and i believe that Europe will manage it without a die-off catastrophe. But it will be different in different countrys. For example France and Sweden(my country) should manage better than other european countrys due to our nuclear and hydro electrical produktion.
And we have not as USA partly destroyed our old infrastructure of many small towns with a hinterland of farming.
We made it during WWII, with all difficulties then, why should we not manage now?
The only Q-mark for me is the huge immigration population now.
population of europe pre-industrialization and pre-green revolution.
~78 million
current population of europe
728 million
overshoot ~700 million.
What was life like in pre-industrial Europe. Here is what it was like in a typical French city:
That is what it was like before the days of fossil fuels, before the industrial revolution or the green revolution. We will eventually return to the same agricultural production and industrial production that was present in France in those days. But it will take a long time because there will be very few farm animals and the skills required to live in those days have disappeared.
Think about it. People could get so hungry that they eat next years seed. But no doubt they will eat the cows and horses. There will be no breeding stock left. Hell, there are hardley any horses left right now.
Ron Patterson
thats why i put overshoot in the 700 million range.
it is not unreasonable to assume that even if europe drops down to 78 million half of those people die while trying to re-learn old skills and failing.
If overshoot for Europe is about 700 million above the sustainable level of ~77 million, the population crash will be well below 77 million.
What was the Native American population before Columbus landed in North America?
I'll try to say this as many times as necessary:
Population overshoots always follow the pulse waveform of the most common oscillation in Nature, the relaxaction oscillator. This means a more gradual rise followed by a steeper fall, a sort of a sawtooth wave. The fall will dip below the original population level, and take some time to reach the equilibrium level that was present before.
That's right, it's not a bell curve. It's the the same curve as the voltage/time one every EE student learns is present in a laser pulser or a camera flash.
Bell curves are pretty, and in statistics, are natural. They are not natural in the growth/crash relaxation oscillator that we and other types of yeast live by though.
Relaxation oscillator I mean.
I laughed when I first heard the name, engineering types learn it ideally when they're learning about something called the RC time constant.
I learned about the sawtooth waveform in my dated electronic technician background, although I don't recall the term "Relaxation oscillator".
Google had lots of hits and a quick check or the Wiki link uses terminology I am familiar with.
I didn't see an explanation in the Google
returns of the term's genesis, though.
Flaws
in EM Theory
this is why i think the living will envy the dead when TSHTF.
This is correct. Most of Europe is vastly overpopulated and in serious overshoot
Hi François and Swede,
I would somewhat disagree with our resistance to PO because of hydro and nuclear, at least in France. I am not able to generalise about Sweden, you are neighbours with norway which could help a lot not talking about a sound social organisationn, which is really not the case in France
On a micro level, I happen to witness some facts about our economy in France which shows an increasing misery among people belonging to the under middle class. This fact is totally unaccounted for and I can witness that the government is actively suppressing the figures which should show this increase.
On a macro level, I recall that we are part of the global economy. All our industry majors owe their growth to their international business structures (not exports). It is true that a part of our economy is fueled by nuclear (80% of our electricity) but this is already completely factored into the economy.
Our economy is tanking from all parts, our social security is on the verge of collapsus, some hospitals are on the brink of bankruptcy. Every aspect of our administration is witnessing increasing difficulties to meet targets for normal operation. Violence is now widespread and daily in some of our suburbs (but well hidden by our politicians). Our infrastructure of telecommuncations is not decent any more. I could go on about our dams and even some aspects of the security in our nuclear reactors (these energy forms are really too dependant on a working hydrocarbon economy, think about transport, cement, income and international security). Take out a fraction of hydrocarbons and/or a % of growth and the whole system will collapse as a house or cards.
I think that the Euro will explode like the dollar, along with the european union. We will revert to strong regionalism (which isn't really dead). I only hope that we will avoid too strong antagonisms but this is mere hope.
In Sweden there is some boom euphoria along with some climate change scare, a weak peak oil debate and the usual tabloid churn. Most of the economical indicators are moving in good directions. (Is falling housing prices good or bad? Seem ok as long as they dont fall below the new build cost in the growing regions. )
One explenation for this is that a large part of the Swedish industry is specialized in investment goods needed by booming or retooling economies. Another one is very good government finances. Or the effects of lower unemployment from lowering overall taxation and especially poor peoples taxes and provinding unpopular incintive changes by cutting subsides for groups that should be able to work more. Or that our economy is fairly oil efficient.
We are doing tax cuts that would have made Reagan or a Bush proud but they are aimed at getting the poorest people back into the working economy and thus also ease bottlenecks. It feels like living in a very intresting experiment that is doing great. Our economy were dragging along an anvil and now we have decided to drop it. From my observation it is not "trickle down" changed, its the other way around and rich people has to invest and do business to reap benefits from the change. This feels culturally right for me and I am sure I soon will live in a healthier society.
We got violence problems, lack of maintainance problems, school quality problems, government efficiency problems and so on but things are being done to correct them. The lead time from finding a problem and doing something substantial about it is most often several years but the systems do react. From the fringe of our government system where I work I see efforts to make it work more efficient. These efforts are probably helped a lot by the change of government a year ago but I do of course have the winning sides viewpoint.
If what is broken is a technical system with a cash flow and there are no regulations slowing down the corrections of the problem I have seen substantial things starting being done within months rather then years. The perfect example is reactions to electricity grid failures. Btw, this example is from before the change of ruling parties a year ago. Manny plants in the governmnet garden were healthy but it helps to get rid of weeds. Thus I am extremely happy that my party has decided to prioritize simpler planning and environmental regulations and faster legal processes to be able to handle climate change and so on.
I think the following years can be extremely good for my country if large parts of the world dont decide to go apocalypse crazy and burn thru resources in conflicts over oil, water or prestige and thus destroy large parts of the world trade. We only have to quickly use the proven good ideas all around, in manny areas increase the physically productive economy with 10-20% and we will be ok with research level ideas delivering icing on the cake.
Quickly as in cutting lead times to something like 1/4 and breaking the habit of detailed government subsidies and replace them with broad and fast market responses. Such as not favoring biofuels, or wind or solar or nuclear power but pulling the brake blocks and see what starts moving in response to the changes taking place. And not favoring a single solution for energy production is part of my parties program since three days ago. Boy am I happy seeing this process from the inside and even helping it along by a tiny bit.
I dont think the dollar has exploded or that the euro will explode. Things can go to hell but having the larger part of the economy shrinking while the new parts start to grow is not hell. I hope will will get strong regions competing in a constructive way. I would like a stronger Swedish defence but not that we would try to compete my maximizing arms production above all else, the bulk of the investments should be in directly productive areas.
I better get back to another hour of work instead of ToD reading and rambling. If the menial thins are not done there will be no paycheck or people listening to the few bright thoughts I have among the rambling. ;-)
We heard all this crap before from the Reaganites. "Making the poor productive" is always a Trojan Horse for neo-Victorianism, whether it comes from Reagan, Thatcher, Bush(es), Clinton(s), Sarkozy, or whatever fascists the neocons have installed in Poland and the Czech Republic. And the end result is always Rio de Janeiro, and was always intended to be.
Which is why there is going to be one more war everywhere in the world before a final collapse.
yup. only this time there won't be a altruistic relief organization from some rich first world country coming in to help these poor souls.
[quote] On a micro level, I happen to witness some facts about our economy in France which shows an increasing misery among people belonging to the under middle class. This fact is totally unaccounted for and I can witness that the government is actively suppressing the figures which should show this increase.[/quote]
I'm seeing the same thing here in the US. At first I thought it was confined to New York City, but then I moved to a small town for work. It is a small town I'd lived in ten years earlier, so it was easy to see how it had changed over that time. The change paralleled that in NYC. Fewer comfortably middle class people, but an obvious division between a smaller group of very prosperous people and the majority who are poor and struggling. Working class areas seem more run down, while wealthy areas seem shockingly prosperous.
What does sweden use for heating and hot water? Just Electricity and full renewable biomass or solar. Why is the EU so dependant on Russian oil and gas imports?
It should also be interesting when the Muslims population (growing numbers) starts demanding that the Christians (declining numbers) convert to Islam. It should also be equally interesting to see how Europe deals with its Socialism and Centralized controlled economy (aka the road to Totalitarianism) Currently Europe's socialism is unsustainably supported by manufacturing exports (aka Trade surpluses)
FWIW: I believe that Europe will either ripped apart by religous civil war cast by the Moslim population, or fall into one or more totalitarian gov't(s). When the shelves go bare and the trains stop running. I have absolutely no doubt that Europeans will show their darker side went things go sour.
Where did the first two world wars originate? What would have happen to Western Europe if the US did not intervene in the second WW? What would had happened if the US didn't begin the Marshal plan and pulled all of its troops out of Europe right after the war ended? (hint: Europeans all would be speaking in Russian).
Its very likely the US will soon begin to close its bases in Europe as America is no longer able to finance them. Whether Europe replaces US servicemen with there own troops is up in the air, but the present of US troops certainly prevented a build in in arms and helped maintain a peace between individual European nations as virtually all of the Europeam nations were focused on the Soviet Threat. The Iron Curtain is no more, and without a US presence, individual European nations will once again will be free to explore political and idealogical ideas that have been long been suppresed.
To believe that individual European nations have have fought wars among themselves for thousands of years, have somehow pacified themselves seems egregious. Germans still see themselves as Germans and the French still see themselves as French, not Europeans. If the French think the Germans are getting a better deal over a EU policy, or the Germans see French taking advantage of an EU policy, it won't take too long before the EU reverts back into individual nations. Marriages occur during the good times and divorces become numberous during the bad times.
You could argue WWII began in China when Japan attacked.
As you implied, the Soviets would have eventually won the war. It just would have taken longer.
This is my major pet peeve about what Americans are taught about World War II. It's always said the U.S. joined the war and defeated the Germans. The Soviets had already turned the tide against Germany before the U.S. had any significant involvement. The U.S. didn't win the war in Europe. What the U.S. did is ensure the West had a piece of the spoils, limiting the Soviets to only eastern Europe.
The whole Eastern Front is routine glossed over in our accounts of the war.
Without the food, trucks (90% of Red Army trucks came from the USA), weapons of all types, supplies, etc. plus tying down 1 million on the home front against the air war plus millions more in Africa & Italy and defending the Western Wall, the Germans would have won on the Eastern Front, as they did during WW I.
Some part of the USSR would likely have remained, but Germany and Italy would be on the Black Sea and likely the Caspian as well.
Alan
edited