DrumBeat: November 11, 2007
Posted by Leanan on November 11, 2007 - 10:01am
Topic: Miscellaneous
The subject of the Kingdom's 260 billion or so barrels of proved reserves was addressed, a figure that has been criticized by some, in particular by energy investment banker Matthew Simmons a couple years ago in his Peak Oil treatise, "Twilight in the Desert."Aramco turns 75 next year—marking the anniversary of the signing of its first foreign exploration concession in 1933 with the predecessor to Chevron Corp. In its history, the country has produced 100 billion barrels of crude, said Ziyad Al-Shiha, manager of public relations for the company.
"The good news is we still have 260 billion barrels of oil yet to go," Mr. Al-Shiha said in an overview presentation of Aramco that was heavy on feel-good lines such as "powering the planet and empowering lives."
"Some times people ask: 'How does that 260 remain?' Every year, whatever we extract, 2.5 or 3 billion barrels, our exploration brings about the same quantity that we extract, to bring it back to that 260 billion barrels of crude oil."
Radioactive waste surfaces at Texas gas sites
Blasted free by millions of gallons of fresh water and chemical soup sent miles below ground, some of earth's baddest geological actors – radioactive elements capable of scarring soil and scourging human health – are slowly rising to the surface along with the Barnett Shale's natural gas.
Qatar energy min doesn't expect OPEC output decision
Qatar's energy minister said on Sunday he did not expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to decide to change its output ceiling at a meeting of OPEC heads of state in Saudi Arabia this week.
Analysis: Pakistan unrest hurts pipelines
On Nov. 3 Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf declared emergency rule in Pakistan....An unintended but significant byproduct of the proclamation is to kill, perhaps for good, any Pakistani or Indian hopes for sharing in the burgeoning Caspian basin energy exports, threatening some projects that have been on the drawing boards for years. Proposed pipelines include those to bring Turkmen and Iranian hydrocarbons via Pakistan and thence onward to India. The chaos in Afghanistan initially dimmed Indian and Pakistani hopes as the chaos, combined with other more stable suitors, most notably China, stepped into the breach with offers and funding. Islamabad's recent pronouncement seems hardly likely to quell the anxieties of potential Western investors, painfully aware this is the first time since 1945 that a nuclear-armed state has declared a state of emergency.
Opinions of oil company executives on peak oil
The views of the oil industry on Peak Oil are divided, ranging from a non-event to getting there fast. Here I try to give the opinions of oil company executives about Peak Oil and related issues.
Coal’s in our future. So what IS wrong with Kansas?
You may think I really don’t like coal. Bunch of petrified plants, after all. But the questions about coal are, after all, largely technological. It’s unlike the debate over peak oil, and what supply may remain. Nobody thinks we’re about to run out of coal. Soon work is expected to begin on the next generation of coal-burning plant to generate electricity. The plant will be built in either Illinois or Texas. Near to coal fields.
Ride High on Peak Oil with these Four Rail Transit Stocks
It's a bit tricky to invest in rail transit systems as they are operated by cities, not by private companies, so I took a step up the value chain and started looking for companies which supply transit operators. I focused not on rail line operators, but suppliers, since these companies are most likely to participate in a boom in urban mass transit.
The key thing is that we still have excess supply... but when it does fall it's like stepping off a cliffWHEN representatives from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries gather in Riyadh's King Faisal Hall on Tuesday, they will be standing on the cusp of history. Increased demand, fluctuations in production, a weak dollar and opportunistic trading have all conspired to push the price of a barrel of crude towards a record high.
Saudi oil minister: Gulf producers do not control crude prices
Saudi Arabia's oil minister said Sunday that Gulf producers could not control record crude prices but would continue their attempts to ensure adequate supplies.
China rations diesel again a week after price hike
China's state refiners are rationing diesel again at petrol stations on the booming east coast just a week after shortages made Beijing hike fuel prices by 10 percent, industry officials and clients said on Sunday.The shortage that occurred in at least three coastal provinces stoked fresh speculations that Beijing may need to further lift its regulated prices to appease loss-making refineries and bring in more imports to boost stocks.
Beijing ups taxi subsidies after petrol price rise
The Beijing city authorities have raised subsidies for taxi drivers this month to soften the impact of a 10 percent increase in petrol prices, while freezing taxi fares for now, state media said on Sunday.
Oil smuggling from Malaysia on the rise
Oil smuggling from Malaysia into southern Thailand is increasing as oil prices in this country have risen in line with soaring global oil prices, a senior Thai government customs officer said today.
UK: Rising fuel prices drive road hauliers to the brink of fresh demonstrations
ANGRY road hauliers will this week decide whether to call a new series of demonstrations to protest over rising fuel prices.Members of the Road Haulage Association Scotland will meet on Tuesday to discuss their response. Petrol last week rose above £1 a litre, with diesel reaching similar heights, after the price of oil hit record levels on world markets.
Beat the price jump at the pumps
Jeffrey Currie at Goldman Sachs, the investment bank that was one of the first to predict $100 oil, said: “Prices could well trade above their previous peaks in the short term as cold winter weather and geopolitical tensions exacerbate supply shortages.”Families are already paying £4 more a week for their petrol than a year ago, and they were warned last week that utility giants are preparing to increase energy bills – even though they failed to cut them when fuel prices were lower earlier this year.
The Philippines: Transport groups to launch protest vs oil price hike
Militant transport groups have started “recruiting" drivers and operators to take part in a nationwide transport holiday to protest the government’s alleged inaction on oil price hikes.
The more children we have, the more stress we put on an already overburdened planet, say campaigners. Observer environment correspondent Juliette Jowit meets the modern Malthusians who, for the sake of the planet, are choosing to 'stop at two'.
In the next few days, the price of a barrel of oil, the raw material used to manufacture gasoline for our cars, plastics for our Christmas toys and heat for our wintry neighbors to the north, will top $100.As our nation blows through the $100-a-barrel barrier, some of our shakiest allies and most worrisome enemies around the world will become even wealthier and more important to our future. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela are but four of the nations that will grow richer and more influential with $100-a-barrel oil.
Rising energy costs put pinch on businesses
The lights go out at night after the last wash at Jim Whitmore's five coin laundries - no longer does he use a fully lit store as advertising. And at Todd Waldemar's Wing Zone store, he's shutting down some of the fryers during off-peak times.Small-business owners are getting pinched by the soaring prices of oil, gasoline and other fuels, eating into their profits as they gas up vehicles, heat and cool their premises and run machinery. Often, they turn to commonsense solutions to save energy and money.
Are Airlines Loading Less Fuel, Or Are There More Delays?
At Newark Liberty International Airport, just five flights landed under minimum or low-fuel conditions over a six-month period in 2005. In a similar period this year, 73 flights came into the same airport with minimum fuel.The report also said 10 flights had to declare the more serious emergency fuel situation, of less than 30-minutes fuel reserve.
Oil crisis hits home with high fuel bills
Massachusetts officials announced this week that the average retail price homeowners pay for home heating oil had reached $3.11 a gallon.That is not a misprint.
Hundreds of families are worried that they won't be able to heat their homes this winter.
High Gas Prices Putting Financial Strain On Fire Stations
Chances are, like many people, you're feeling the pinch in your wallet with the sky-rocketing price of gas. It's at or above three dollars a gallon at many stations throughout Eastern Kentucky and expected to get higher. But could it affect the way firefighters respond to your home if it was on fire?
Hot Fuel: Consumers left paying extra for gasoline double standards
That “you get what you pay for” concept is often the case unless you are buying gasoline.If you’re at the pump, the accuracy of the aforementioned maxim can literally be measured with a thermometer and the magic number is 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
If the temperature is above the 60-degree threshold, you’re being taken to the cleaners — below and you’re sitting pretty.
One Planet Living apartments in Brighton have just gone on sale. The development of 172 studio, one- and two-bed apartments in the New England Quarter claims zero carbon emissions, a zero waste plan, sustainable transport solutions (you can hire a car through an on-site car club), and supports local and sustainable food and wildlife.
A New Look to the Sky as Oil Prices Rise
Now, oil prices are rising, and along with them a renewed awareness that the oil in the ground is finite and that greenhouse gas emissions are endangering the planet. More people are squinting up at the big, hot, pulsating sun and thinking: Look at all that energy up there!
Tempests, truckers and tribesmen - another week in the oil market
In a cavernous hall on the edge of Manhattan's financial district, every shout, thrust or scribbled note affects the cost of petrol at the pump for millions of motorists around the world. In six months, benchmark prices have surged by 45% - an upward march that has left veteran traders shaking their heads.Ray Carbone, president of Paramount Options, has been trading on the floor of Nymex for 20 years. He has rarely seen anything like it: "The markets over the last few days have been probably as jumpy and jittery as I've ever seen them - and I've been here through two Gulf wars, a Russian coup and Hurricane Katrina." The stakes, says the 48-year-old New Yorker, have never been higher: "Because of the high price, there is such nervousness about what could happen - a complete wash-out or continuing strength?"
Opec under pressure as $100 barrel creates oil panic in the West
The cartel is being asked to spend billions on doubling production over the next 25 years, but are energy demand forecasts right?
Two frightening trends stand out from the annual report published this week by the International Energy Agency (IEA).Warning about a crude oil supply crunch before 2015 involving an abrupt price increase, it says oil markets everywhere will become more sensitive than ever to Middle East disruptions, including political developments in Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. And the IEA calculates that, on unchanged policies, total global emissions of carbon dioxide will rise from 27 billion tonnes in 2005 to 42 billion tonnes in 2030. That level would see world temperatures rise six degrees centrigrade by then - an utterly unsustainable increase that is also avoidable.
Edwin Black on Electric Cars and Internal Combustion Engine
Author and investigative journalist Edwin Black speaks with David Room in September 2007 about the corporate forces that have for more than a century sabotaged the creation of alternative energies and vehicles in order to keep us dependent on oil. He speaks of the beginnings of electric cars around the turn of the 20th century and the ultimate ascendancy of the internal combustion engine. He also discusses how GM and several other corporations conspired to dismantle electric streetcar systems throughout the United States and his Green Fleet concept.
Mr. Mandich’s machine devours pine chips from Georgia and turns them into an energy-rich gas, a step toward making liquid fuels. His company, Range Fuels, is near the front of the pack in a technology race that could have an impact on the way America powers its automotive fleet, and help ameliorate global warming.
Portland unveils carbon tax plan
In a bold move to curb the growth of greenhouse gas emissions from the Portland area, city officials plan to charge builders hundreds of dollars for each new home that is not extremely energy efficient. And it would require, as part of every existing home sale, that an energy efficiency report be done by home inspectors.Also: Terms of the deal for energy efficiency
Ship emissions seen causing 60,000 deaths a year
Emissions from ocean-going ships are responsible for about 60,000 deaths a year from heart and lung-related cancers, according to research published on Wednesday that calls for tougher fuel standards.
'The era of cheap oil is dead': $100 a barrel is on the way
With the price of a barrel of oil expected to breach the $100 barrier in the coming weeks, experts have warned that the era of cheap oil is now dead.Leaders and oil ministers from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) will gather this week at a meeting in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, to discuss the spiralling price of oil, which has nudged ever nearer the once unthinkable $100 level.
China's rapid growth in consumption could suck up all the extra crude pumped next year, leaving other countries to get by with less.
$100 oil to put Myanmar junta over a barrel again
Oil was $72 a barrel in August when a budget crunch forced Myanmar's ruling generals to slash fuel subsidies, sparking protests that snowballed into the biggest anti-junta uprising in two decades.Since then, crude prices have climbed 35 percent to near $100 a barrel, and with no new revenues coming in from natural gas sales or anywhere else in a shambolic economy, the regime has little option but to raise fuel prices again, analysts say.
Russian oil tanker breaks up off Crimea
A severe storm broke a Russian oil tanker in two between the Azov and Black Seas on Sunday, spilling fuel oil in what a Russian official said was an "environmental disaster."Russia's state-run Vesti-24 channel quoted the latest data from state environment agency Rosprirodnadzor as saying some 2,000 tonnes of fuel oil had spilt.
China To Up Strategic Oil Reserves To 12 Million Tons By 2010 Report
China aims to boost its strategic oil reserves to 12 million metric tons by 2010, equivalent to one month of net imports of oil products, the state-run Shanghai Securities News reported Saturday, citing an unnamed source.By 2020, China will further increase its strategic oil reserves to the level equivalent to three months of net imports of oil products, the report said.
Brazil strikes oil, but OPEC ambitions may prove costly
Brasilia shouldn’t be looking to elbow its way alongside neighbor Venezuela or the petro-rich Arab countries anytime soon, analysts warned.That’s because the precious oil and gas deposits lie deep undersea way off Brazil’s southeast coast — making recovery a costly and time-consuming prospect.
VAXJO, Sweden — When this quiet city in southern Sweden decided in 1996 to wean itself off fossil fuels, many people doubted the ambitious goal would have any impact beyond the town limits.Today, however, Vaxjo is attracting a green pilgrimage of politicians, scientists and business leaders from as far away as the United States and North Korea seeking inspiration from a city program that has allowed it to cut CO2 emissions 30 percent since 1993.
The B.C. government wants to take the crime train out of SkyTrain.Transportation Minister Kevin Falcon unveiled ideas yesterday to radically overhaul the transit system to make it a safer ride -- and to stop fare evaders in their tracks.
And the Winner is… the Oil Companies!
The prize, usually awarded to a great inventor, this year goes instead to the entire oil industry, in recognition of the unusually high prices they are demanding for this important resource.The initiator of the prize, Gerhard Muthenthaler, explains, "Cheap oil was the main reason that great Greenventions have not been pursued with enthusiasm. But the more expensive oil gets, the faster we’ll start to see environmentally friendly alternatives emerge."
OPEC to discuss output hike if needed: Saudi, Kuwait
The Saudi and Kuwaiti oil ministers said on Sunday that OPEC will discuss the possibility of raising oil production if it is necessary to cool soaring prices.‘It is premature (to speak of a hike in output). When OPEC meets, we will discuss this issue,’ Ali Al Nuaimi, oil minister of OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia, told reporters during a short visit to Kuwait.
The Third OPEC Summit Takes Place under Turbulent Economic Conditions
In the coming days, Riyadh will host the Third OPEC Summit, which is convening under three general themes: providing petroleum, promoting prosperity, and protecting the planet. The summit will take place on 17 and 18 November but will be preceded by several activities, including a two-day symposium in which leading energy ministers and international oil experts will take part. The symposium will cover topics such as energy for sustainable development, OPEC's role in securing oil supplies and boosting stability, and the future of oil in the global energy mix.
Delhi is in danger of losing the gains of its CNG program as pollution levels are once again creeping up to pre-2000 level. The latest analysis of recent air quality data in Delhi carried out by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) finds that pollution levels are on the upswing again after a few years of control.



Two Udall's running for US Senate
Cousins Tom Udall (D-NM) and Mark Udall (D-CO) are both leaving their House seats for runs at the US Senate.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/10/AR200711...
Noteworthy is that another Udall, Randy Udall (brother of Mark) was a founding member of ASPO-USA.
Best Hopes for Growing Peak Oil Caucus, with growing influence,
Alan
Saturday night ABC was televising Ok State vs. Kansas football and had Boone Pickens in the booth for a short time in the 2nd half [Musburger & Herbstriet (sp)]. Boone has given $250 million to OSU to remodel the football stadium (Pickens Stadium) and other on campus sporting facilities. Musburger said "I am sorry that this is off topic, but let's talk about Peak Oil for a momement. Is this real?" Boone said, "Absolutely. The world is producing 85 million bbls/day and demand is 88 million bbls/day. I do not think it can go over 85 million, so the price will have to keep going up until demand falls."
Quoted material is best of my recollection. But, I would say that the concept is now into the MSM. What it means as a disruptive force is not understood at all yet.
There's a lot of discussion of this in yesterday's DrumBeat.
$100 is a resistance point, in the chartists sense. As the price approaches $100 people will take profits so it will take two or three goes to get there.
Another issue is the global economy, which is slowing everywhere now and not just in the US. If the oil price is a call option on global economic growth (my view) then demand may tail off a bit so the price could well fall back to $90.
My bet is the $100 mark will be passed in the 1st quarter 2008 when demand is at the winter high. TODers should know better than to believe the MSM :-)
I think it depends on the inventory report. If it's much lower than expected this week, we'll have $100 oil. Though maybe only briefly.
Hi Leanan,
There are two possible causes for low crude inventory.
1. Demand for refined products is high.
2. Refiners see price/demand falling so start destocking crude. If they think the price will fall they will hold off.
The oil price slumped in 1997 when the Asian financial crisis happened because of destocking, and believe me, the economy is not doing well - the economists at the investment bank where I work see problems everywhere.
Maybe you are right, Leanan, but making money in the futures markets can never be easy. I'm back-pedalling from $100. It's just too neat and tidy for me. (I'm not a trader by the way!).
The causes for low inventory I'm thinking about are the disruption in Mexico due to weather (which will probably show up in the numbers this Thursday), and possibly shut-in production from Ursa and Mars (if the rumors are correct - Shell said they would issue a statement, but never did).
I think it depends on the inventory report. If it's much lower than expected this week, we'll have $100 oil. Though maybe only briefly.
I don't think it will be as simple as that this week. There are several complicating factors. The inventory report will be a day delayed, and the December contract expires the next day. Then, we have OPEC meeting at the end of the week. I think all of this will make it very tough to gauge what's going to happen this week. But with the contract expiring, I expect people to take profits, and if there is a bad inventory report the upswing will be tempered by those wishing to take profits and avoid getting stuck with delivered barrels.
Plus, for the reasons musashi points out below and others, there are stock market problems and dollar moves that will likely put pressure on the price.
This week is going to be strange. The time release MOAB hits Wall Street on thursday (FAS157). Maybe we see a couple dead cat bounces, but then ..........
http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/10097878/c_10098290
What's the chances they will "Table" FAS157 for a year?
Saying that it's for "The Common Good" or something?
John
IMO zero, if they change it now it would be the same or worse, like the regulators openly admitting that they are in bed with the fraudsters.
They can game it by fiscal year date to a point, so there is a built in delay, but on the other hand as soon as one is marked to market they all are.
I'm sure you know what they are worth.
Another opinion.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net
Hong Kong is down, Tokyo is down big time and the yen just broke 110 ..... 109.97 ..... that was a bit of a resistance point sort of like 100 oil.
Ms Watanabe is going to need her sake tonight.
"Ms Watanabe is going to need her sake tonight."
What do you mean by that? It depends on whether Ms Watanabe has the bulk of her portfolio in stocks or cash. If she has yen collecting dust in the bank, she will in fact be toasting with her sake and maybe some bubbly, rather than gulping it down. The yen is rising, because the carry trade is unwinding due to market turbulence, and look for a New Year's rate increase from the BOJ. With peak oil, faltering US consumer spending and increasing buying power in Europe et al, Japan now needs a weak currency to drive exports much less than it does a strengthening yen to offset rising energy costs. The yen has been lagging behind other currencies' rises, and now it is poised to take off. 109 is nothing. Wait till it gets below 100 JPY/USD next year. You'll be able to tell by the numbers of Japanese tour groups that suddenly swarm European capitols next summer.
It refers to a pretty recent FT? article that was widely circulated talking about Japanese house wifes day trading, specifically using the yen carry trade. They called her "Ms Watanabe".
The yen carry trade hasn't completely unwound yet, but with the margins the higher valued yen is a huge hill to climb.
If BOJ raises rates and BenDover lowers them some more we will have a Dollira (US peso?) carry trade.
You might be right in the short term, but Europe has huge problems in the longer term. What are they going to do with all the third world immigration once exports start to fall like a rock and the jobs go away?
The 100$-barrel is polite, just holding back for a little while, allowing for the programmers of electronic charts and tables to adapt for another digit .. “Y2K lite”
They fixed the price displays outside UK petrol stations some time ago. Now showing 1.01 pounds. Ouch!
Perhaps they should program for two extra digits whilst they are at it ?
Alan
PS" I would not buy a gas pump today without the ability to charge $99.999/gallon. And I would ask about higher prices if inflation gets out of control.
I think $100 is indeed a resistance line only in terms of technical analysis trading.
Real need for oil products or fundamentally investing people do not mind about $100.
It's just another number.
What matter is how much can one afford, what does one get as a benefit and is it really worth it.
That economic pain point varies based on use and need.
If $100 really becomes a ceiling for a while, I think we can safely conclude that a big chunk of the recent rise is highly speculative investor influenced (technical trader) run up.
If it breaks through $100 as easily as any other number, then it's probably more real (inelastic) demand driven than anything else.
I was reviewing Westexas's Export Land Model (ELM) this morning and was wondering how we are doing with world exports. So I went over to http://netoilexports.blogspot.com/ and looked at the data for the Top 16 Exporters (based on EIA data).
Since the monthly data is a little noisy I averaged the 5 months centered on the peak of September 2005 and then the averaged of the last 5 months, May – Sept. 2007.
That has us at 40.1802 mbpd at the height and 38.0718 mbpd now or a drop of 2.1084 mbpd of all liquids.
In 2006 the top 8 importers imported the average of 30.526 mbpd of all liquids (U.S, China, Japan, Germany, India, S. Korea, France & Italy).
I can see why we're at $95 oil now and I wonder what the price of oil will be when we are down 3 mbpd from the peak?
Out of the city and back to the Islands this Wednesday.
Ed
www.mvjoybells.com
Off Grid, Off Mainland, current profession:Beach Bum
Sam
I see stock markets world wide generally fell all last week.
What would be the consequences for oil if they continued to fall all this week.
Or is that just too unlikely?
Is the price of oil affecting stock markets or is it just the credit bubble?
From the New York Times...
Economic View
In the Bond Market, a Bleak Prognosis for Iraq
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/11/business/worldbusiness/11view.html?_r=...
'PRESIDENT BUSH’S surge of troops in Iraq has done little to resolve the political debate over the Iraq war. But global financial markets have been monitoring the war for months, and with remarkable consistency, they have concluded that the long-term prospects for a stable Iraq are very bleak.
That is the picture that emerges from a study by Michael Greenstone, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, titled, “Is the ‘Surge’ Working? Some New Facts,” which has been circulating as a working paper in academic circles.'...snip...
'It wasn’t until Professor Greenstone began examining the financial markets’ pricing of Iraqi government debt that he had his eureka moment. It was immediately clear that the bond market — which, historically, has often been an early indicator of the demise of a political system — was pessimistic about the Iraqi government’s chances for survival.'...snip...
'To say the least, the market for these bonds is not robust: as of last week, a bond with a face value of $100 was trading at around $60. Professor Greenstone calculated that, from the markets’ standpoint, the implied default risk over the life of the bond was about 80 percent.'...snip...
'During the American Civil War, for example, when Confederate forces lost at Gettysburg, Confederate cotton bonds traded in England dropped by about 14 percent. During World War II, German government bonds fell 7 percent when the Russians started their counterattack at Stalingrad in 1942, and French government bonds rose 16 percent after the Allied invasion at Normandy in 1944. Many such examples of the prescience of financial markets have been documented by economic historians.'...snip...
'In the market, people vote with their money, and the vote is not going well for the new Iraq. Politicians in the United States may be divided over whether the surge has raised the chances of political reconciliation in Iraq. But the bond market has already made its message clear: don’t bet on it.'...snip...
I don't know whether this has already been posted, but, just in case as it's an important geopolitical event:
The uninvited guest: Chinese sub pops up in middle of U.S. Navy exercise, leaving military chiefs red-faced
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/worldnews.html?in_ar...
Already posted yesterday. It's old news. The event happened in October 2006. The Daily Mail is a year late in the "news."
Sorry Leanan, didn't see it yesterday... too much news to keep up with these days.
So, China then followed up by destroying a satellite in space in January. Looks like a pretty clear message.
I was watching Dr Strangelove yesterday. It reminds me of the bit about the doomsday weapon and Strangelove asking if it was a deterrent, why hadn't they told the World about it.
Obviously the Chinese aren't going to make the same mistake and wish to fully publicise their deterrents.
Ohh man- good catch! Have the Chinese ventured into shady-techniques, without telling anyone? hehehe….. eh . I knew they’re into shadow boxing though :-)
re-edit : old stuff ? but new to me
If the Chinese have really developed the means to shadow an American carrier battle group at close range (as opposed to posting a picket across a known transit corridor), would it be in their interest to publicise the fact?
Turn it upside down: if the Americans have developed the means for their carrier battle groups to avoid detection by Chinese naval forces, would it be in their interest to publicise the fact?
And so on and so forth. >>yawn<<
...would it be in their interest to publicise the fact?
Sure it would. The Chinese surface their submarine and we spend a couple billion dollars figuring out new defense technology... and another 40 billion dollars to purchase it.
You would publicize it only if you wanted to AVOID the war and keep the trading relationship going. Yet you also are telling the US Military that it is not Omnipotent.. either that, or the Subcommander crashed the party innocently. (Unlikely with the sounds that would be coming from a big surface group, right?)
Bob
One burning question remains:
Did the submarine paint contain toxic levels of Lead?
From "Fuel Without the Fossil" link above:
Nice. I'm guessing they're using fisher-tropsch. Couldn't get a good read on the profitability of making the other-than-subsidized ethanol though.
Turning wood chips into ICE fuel, by any process, looks pretty idiotic to me.
MUCH better EROEI: turn the chips into pellets, and use them for home heating (what are you planning to heat your home with, when fuel oil and gas are too expensive?). Use some other energy source for transport.
Full disclosure : I'm getting a Swedish wood pellet boiler installed this month.
Hi Alistair,
Earlier this evening I crunched some numbers with regards to wood pellet and the results were far from encouraging. I confess I'm not a fan of this technology and given my somewhat jaundiced views on the matter, feel free to challenge my results and the underlying assumptions upon which they are based.
Locally, the cost of a name brand pellet stove, vent kit, hearth pad and labour to install falls in the range of $4,300.00 CDN, taxes included. A 40-lb bag of good quality pellets now retails for $4.80 ($5.47 with HST) -- at 80 per cent combustion efficiency, we net about 80 kWh of heat per bag, so our cost per kWh(e) is just slightly less than $0.07. [In the fall of 2005, wood pellets were selling for as little as $3.20 a bag, so their cost has increased 50 per cent in just two years.]
Electric resistance heat here in Nova Scotia is presently $0.1067 per kWh and at $0.84 per litre -- $3.34 per U.S. gallon at current exchange rates -- oil heat runs anywhere from $0.095 to $0.115 per kWh(e) depending upon the efficiency of the boiler.
In my analysis, I assumed a pellet stove could displace about $1,400.00 of oil or electricity, or roughly one-half the space heating demands of an older conventional home, which our provincial department of energy pegs at 80 MM BTUs/yr. At 154 bags, our pellet costs work out to be $842.38 and our savings, $557.62. From this, I subtracted $170.94 for an annual cleaning and maintenance by a professional technician; my net, first-year savings are thus $386.68.
If these numbers are reasonable and broadly representative, my simple pay back is in excess of 11 years. Even under a generally favourable set of assumptions (e.g., a cash discount rate of 5 per cent), the internal rates of return and net present values are negative. And if I need to replace a failed control board, igniter, auger motor, combustion fan or some other part, the financials become even shakier.
My family business sells these products and based on the number of service calls they generate, I try hard to dissuade our customers from buying them (I often refer to them as "the Plymouth Volare of heating technologies"). While they may not be appropriate for all climates, I consider high efficiency ductless heat pumps such as a Fujitsu 12RLQ a much better value overall.
Cheers,
Paul
Niiiiice post HereinHalifax !!
I'm a 50+ yo American retraining in a
HVAC/R program. It includes calculation's like you just posted. The program is very conservative and traditional which is sad in a way, but it does cover fundamentals quite well.
Flaws in EM Theory
Thanks RBM, and congratulations to you on your future career in the HVAC industry -- best wishes for every success!
The following brochure (PDF format) is intended to help our customers compare the operating performance of pellet stoves to that of ductless heat pumps; the information is generic in nature and there are no references to name brand products or our company.
http://www.datafilehost.com/download.php?file=e5d56600
This second PDF is my economic assessment of pellet heat vis-à-vis ductless heat pumps (Brand "X" and the aforementioned Fujitsu).
http://www.datafilehost.com/download.php?file=46ced856
I've undertaken fairly extensive modeling of various ductless heat pumps using hourly weather data for the past five heating seasons [ou