DrumBeat: November 12, 2007


OPEC Won't Raise Output at Summit, Gulf Officials Say

OPEC, the producer of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, has no plan to discuss raising production targets at its Heads of State Summit in Riyadh on Nov. 17-18, oil officials from Iran and a Persian Gulf state said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won't discuss raising supply at the summit and will instead discuss that during a Dec. 5 ministerial-level meeting in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, Iran's OPEC governor, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, told the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency today.

Mars Output Near 190k BOE/D After Multiday Outage - Shell

Royal Dutch Shell Plc resumed production over the weekend at its Mars platform in the Gulf of Mexico, which was shut last week because of a faulty valve.

"Mars is expected to be back to a normal producing rate of approximately 190,000 barrels of oil equivalent over the next couple of days," said Shell spokeswoman Darci Sinclair.


Energy official calls for steps to cut speculation that has pushed oil prices to near US$100

The rampant speculation helping to push up world oil prices should be reined in by controlling energy demand with conservation and boosting supply, an energy official said Monday.

William C. Ramsay, deputy executive director of the International Energy Agency, said a growing mass of money available for speculation was fueling the trend as the cost of a barrel of oil approaches $100.

"The speculators wouldn't be in the market if the underlying conditions of the market weren't advantageous to the speculators," Ramsay told reporters in Tokyo. "Our attitude is: fix the fundamentals."


DOE's Harbert: No Commitment From OPEC To Raise Output

Despite calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase production quotas at its next meeting, the U.S. hasn't received any commitment from the group saying it would hike production again, a top U.S. energy official said Monday.

Karen Harbert, the Department of Energy's assistant secretary for policy and international affairs, told reporters she had been in constant contact with producing nations, including OPEC members.

"What we're hearing is that they are starting to become very concerned about price, (but) nobody has made any commitments to address it directly through additional supply," Harbert said when asked whether OPEC had indicated it would respond to calls to hike output.


Barroso warns of dwindling oil reserves

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso warned of the seriousness of the international energy situation.


$100 Oil: What, Me Worry?

Once again, thanks are due to the indomitable U.S. consumer. What's more, Standard & Poor's Economics thinks the U.S. economy will stay healthy even if prices move somewhat higher. Rising oil prices have not yet forced consumers to cut back their spending, and until they do, the U.S. economy will likely keep growing even as oil prices approach $100 a barrel.


An oil nation lifts its lid - just a little

Last month, Gholamhossein Nozari, Iran's oil minister, said oil at more than $90 "is still cheap."

That may be the view of Iran but $100 a barrel is beginning to weigh on the Western world, if not actually notably quelling economic activity. For Saudi Arabia, a lower long-term price is more likely to ensure ongoing robust demand for what is essentially the only product the kingdom sells, while the political goals of Iran versus the U.S. trumps long-term oil market strategy in Tehran.


Beijing reserves its resources

WHILE we keep happily digging up our metals and shipping them out, the Chinese are taking a slightly longer term view. The Ministry of Commerce and the National Development Reform Commission have reclassified China's tungsten, molybdenum, tin, antimony and fluorite as being in the "prohibited category".

What this means is that no foreign company can get involved in mining these metals. Add this to earlier moves to raise export taxes on metals and the message from Beijing is clear: you westerners can exhaust your deposits and in 50 years we'll still have ours.


Oil price? Check the weather

Increased global demand and dwindling reserves play their role, but don't forget the effect of weather in determining oil costs.


Baker Institute study shows 'Big Five' oil companies limit exploration

A study released today by Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy finds that the "Big Five" international oil companies (IOCs) are spending less money on oil exploration in real terms despite a four-fold increase in operating cash flow since the early 1990s. On the flip side, the study, "The International Oil Companies," finds that second-tier oil companies are spending more in exploration, positioning themselves to be in better shape when it comes to future oil reserves.


OPEC summit to call for consumer action on oil

An OPEC summit this week will call on consuming nations to play their part in bringing down record oil prices that are increasingly influenced by financial markets, Algerian Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil said on Monday.


U.S. Digs In to Guard Iraq Oil Exports

The U.S. Navy is building a military installation atop this petroleum-export platform as the U.S. establishes a more lasting military mission in the oil-rich north Persian Gulf.

While presidential candidates debate whether to start bringing ground troops home from Iraq, the new construction suggests that one footprint of U.S. military power in Iraq isn't shrinking anytime soon: American officials are girding for an open-ended commitment to protect the country's oil industry.


Social change relies more on the easily influenced than the highly influential

An important new study appearing in the December issue of the Journal of Consumer Research finds that it is rarely the case that highly influential individuals are responsible for bringing about shifts in public opinion.

Instead, using a number of computer simulations of public opinion change, Duncan J. Watts (Columbia University) and Peter Sheridan Dodds (University of Vermont), find that it is the presence of large numbers of “easily influenced” people who bring about major shifts by influencing other easy-to-influence people.


Airlines expect 27 million Thanksgiving fliers

Airline passenger traffic around the Thanksgiving holiday is forecast to rise 4 percent from a year ago, a trade group for U.S. carriers said Monday.


Climate scepticism: The top 10

What are some of the reasons why "climate sceptics" dispute the evidence that human activities such as industrial emissions of greenhouse gases and deforestation are bringing potentially dangerous changes to the Earth's climate?

As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finalises its landmark report for 2007, we look at 10 of the arguments most often made against the IPCC consensus, and some of the counter-arguments made by scientists who agree with the IPCC.


Is $100 Oil As Lethal As It Looks?

Economists are more worried about housing's downturn than oil's upturn, and for good reason. According to the Federal Reserve, the U.S. has roughly $20 trillion in residential real estate wealth. A 10% price decline, which many economists consider plausible, would reduce Americans' wealth by $2 trillion, traumatizing the financial system. It's not a perfect comparison, but a 50 cents increase in the price of a gallon of gasoline would cost the economy less than a tenth as much, about $75 billion a year.


Businesses, truckers feel pain of higher diesel prices

Diesel prices have surged in recent weeks to record levels, putting a strain on truck drivers, businesses and, potentially, the economy, at a time when economic activity is already slowing.


New South Wales Plans Laws to Get Reliable Gas Supply

Australia's New South Wales state plans to introduce laws to ensure more reliable supply of natural gas to households and businesses after deliveries to some large customers were restricted in June.


Sinopec delays LNG terminal on gas shortage

Sinopec Corp has halted work on a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in coastal Qingdao city because it has not been able to secure gas supplies for the project after a deal with Iran foundered, an industry paper reported on Monday.


Oil tipped to hit US$100 this week

Experts said that with 42,000 options contracts to buy oil at US$100 still open, financial players might try to push oil into triple digits before the expiration.

"I think the one thing that people are continuing to eye is the options expiration," said Eric Wittenauer, analyst at AG Edwards in St Louis. "I think people would be hesitant to sell into this market."


Hows and whys of oil prices and what they mean to U.S.

Many financial analysts expect prices to break $100 a barrel before year's end. Here are answers to some questions about oil's price rise.


Qatar Min: No More OPEC Crude Needed Even with $100 Price

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is producing enough crude oil to keep global markets well supplied, and doesn't need to pump any more oil crude oil even if prices top $100 a barrel, Qatar's Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said Sunday.


Saudi Arabia Pushes for Extra 500,000 b/d OPEC Hike

Saudi Arabia is to push for an extra 500,000 barrels-a-day hike in output by OPEC, or 1.8%, as soon as this week if oil prices drive toward $100 a barrel, an official familiar with the situation said Monday.


As oil flirts with $100, industry CEOs issue warnings, dead enders take cover in last foxhole

Although oil industry executives still shun the term “peak oil,” a number are flirting with the concept. At the recent Oil and Money Conference in London, Shoki Ghanem, chairman of Libya’s national oil company, said, “There is a real problem that supply may not increase beyond a certain level, say around 100 million barrels [a day]. In some countries production is going down and we are not discovering any more of those huge oil wells that we used to discover in the 1960s or the 1950s.”


Over a barrel, cruise lines boost ticket costs

Going on a cruise just got more expensive as seven cruise lines announced new fees to be imposed upon passengers to cover rising fuel costs.


BA flights to cost more as fuel charges spiral

British Airways is raising ticket prices so that it can pass on the rising costs of fuel to customers.

The airline said that it is expecting its fuel bill to rise by about £136m in the second half of this year, caused by the spiralling cost of oil, bringing its total fuel bill for the year to more than £2bn for the first time ever.


Frontier Halting Flights From San Jose To Mexico

As the price of crude oil climbs per barrel, so does the cost of jet fuel. Crude oil is almost steady at $100 per barrel. Frontier Airlines can't raise its ticket prices high enough to stay competitive and profitable at the same time.


Tourism under pressure

Crude oil is the wild card. True, roughly half of tourists interviewed for the Tourist Development Council study said rising travel costs wouldn't dampen their travel plans. But that was in the first half of this year, when statewide gas prices hovered at $3 a gallon or less. Further, it's not only that prices are rising. It's that they are rising fast.


None dare say it was for oil

Many inconvenient questions come tumbling out of the assertion that the Iraq War is about oil. This is the reason I believe that the Bush administration spends so much effort refuting such assertions. The simple fact is that if the Iraq War is really about oil (and I believe that it is), then this means that the current official story, namely, that a smooth, seamless transition to a post-oil economy is underway, is something that even the administration itself does not believe.


India - Oil: running out of options

The Union Government might have once again deferred a decision on hiking petroleum product prices but sooner rather than later it will have to confront the vexatious issue of moderating the impact of soaring world crude oil prices. In the middle of the festival season, the Government did not want to take an unpopular decision but it cannot postpone it any longer.


Japan's Wholesale Inflation Accelerates on Oil Costs

Surging raw-materials costs prompted Kirin Holdings Co. and Daio Paper Corp. to raise prices of beer and toilet paper. Oil is near $100 a barrel and grains and non-ferrous metals are becoming more expensive because of global demand. Even so, consumer prices have failed to rise this year as competition among retailers makes it hard to pass costs on to households.


How worried should you be about the financial squeeze?

Oil prices near record levels, big banks losing billions of pounds and house prices stalling. The City is jittery, but how will such market gyrations really affect consumers?


Zimbabwe returns to charcoal cooking

A survey in some of Harare's poor suburbs revealed that more and more residents have imported charcoal stoves from as far as Zambia while better off Zimbabweans use anything from gas, generators and paraffin.


Oil demand draws China into Middle East politics

China and Russia are wary of backing US-led moves to tighten international sanctions on Iran. Although they, too, suspect that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, they say that applying extra penalties now will simply harden Iran's refusal to negotiate. Their position against tougher United Nations sanctions could change later this month if the UN nuclear watchdog makes an adverse report on its talks with Iran.

But China, a big oil and gas importer, and Russia, a major energy exporter, appear to have their own divergent interests over Iran's nuclear program.


Report: Company plans 'Islamic cars'

Malaysian national carmaker Proton plans to team up with companies in Iran and Turkey to produce "Islamic cars" for the global market, a news report said Sunday.

Proposed by Iran, the collaboration would include installing features in automobiles such as a compass to determine the direction of Mecca for prayers, and compartments for storing the Quran and headscarves, Proton's Managing Director Syed Zainal Abidin told national news agency Bernama.


Utah's Oil Shale Presents Promising Alternative Source

Years of rising energy demands have significantly depleted traditional and easily-acquired energy resources, even as large deposits of unconventional resources have remained undeveloped due to the high expense and complicated technology involved in extracting them. But with the price of crude oil and gasoline up and supply shrinking, nontraditional resources are being seriously considered as potential sources of fuel.


Grants, NM looks to reclaim title of "Uranium Capital of the World"

Grants, as the locals are proud to say, isn't dead. But its role as the uranium capital, as headquarters of a district that mined more uranium than any other in the United States, fell just as the price of the commodity plummeted in the early 1980s.

"We're talking about bringing them back."


Wind Power Beats Predictions

The U.S. wind industry announced last week that installations are projected to jump 63 percent this year, thanks in part to concern about global warming and increasing fuel prices. According to the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), a nonprofit industry trade group, the U.S. will gain 4,000 megawatts worth of wind power—enough to power a million homes—in 2007. That’s double the amount the group originally predicted just a year ago. While Texas, California, Iowa and Minnesota lead the nation in new wind-based megawatts, installations have been going up in every state.


Kunstler: Peak Money

The multi-dimensional meltdown underway in the finance sector illustrates perfectly how the complex systems we depend on start to wobble and fail as soon as peak oil establishes itself as a fact in the public imagination. Mainly what it shows is that we don't have to run out of oil -- or even come close to that -- before the trouble starts. Just going over the peak and heading down the slippery slope of depletion is enough. Peak oil, it turns out, is also peak money. Or should we say, peak "money?"


PEMEX platform still leaking

As of Nov. 9, PEMEX continues to work to control the hydrocarbon leak from the Kab-121 well on the Kab-101 platform. Work has been hindered by adverse weather conditions, as have the spill recovery, containment and clean-up efforts.


Company wants to ship fuel from Europe to Juárez

Pemex, Mexico's national oil company, plans to continue to increase the amount of fuel it ships into Juárez from the Longhorn Partners Pipeline, which runs from Houston to El Paso.

That's why a Pemex subsidiary wants to build a 27-mile, multimillion-dollar pipeline from Longhorn's terminal in far East El Paso to Juárez.

...Fuel for the pipeline would mostly come from Europe, Tollefson reported.


Exxon CEO: Supply Response To Oil Price A Couple Of Yrs Away

There will be no immediate respite from current high oil prices from either an increase in supply or consumers reducing their demand, Rex Tillerson, chairman and chief executive of Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), said Monday.

An increase in oil supplies in response to the recent record prices of over $ 98 a barrel may take a couple of years, Tillerson said at the industry's World Energy Congress in Rome.


Newcastle Coal Price Reaches Record on Supply Limits

Coal prices at Australia's Newcastle port, the world's biggest export harbor for the fuel, rose to a record because port and rail facilities limit shipments, adding to expectations annual contract prices are set to gain.


Nigeria: Surging Oil Prices; How Country Sells Cheap and Buys High

Nigeria, as a major oil exporter in OPEC, may be earning more from the surging crude oil prices. However, the ambivalence of Nigeria's situation is that while the men in the budget office may be praying for higher crude prices, the men in the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) and indeed the average Nigerian motorist, want the reverse of that. Nigeria imports virtually all its petroleum products needs which is more expensive than the crude it exports.


What Is Energy Security? ( Part III)

The energy literature and numerous statements by officials of oil-producing and oil-consuming countries indicate that the concept of energy security is elusive. Definitions of energy security range from uninterrupted oil supplies to the physical security of energy facilities to support for bio-fuels and renewable energy resources. Historically, experts and politicians referred to “security of oil supplies” as “energy security”. Only recently policy makers started worrying about the security of natural gas and LNG supplies.


Energy crisis is man-made

Sure there is an energy crisis. That is if the government and private businesses are deterred or prevented from taking advantage of domestic resources.

Oil at $100-plus a barrel is not the product of the war. It is the result of a narrow-minded attitude which refuses to responsibly tap resources at home.


Inching toward mileage sanity

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says that, before lawmakers leave Washington on Friday for a two-week holiday recess, she wants Congress to vote on an energy bill that will boost the nation's fuel-economy standards.

Pardon our lack of gratitude in this season of thanksgiving, but why the rush all of a sudden?


Grim facts on Earth in crisis

A new UN report on the state of the world’s environment warns of the dangers of climate change, water scarcity, dwindling fish stocks, pressures on the land and the extinction of species.

THE planet is in dire environmental straits and humanity is at risk if the problems are not solved, says a new report on the current state of the global environment.


Saudi Aramco will meet production targets, company insists

Saudi Aramco is replacing as much oil as it extracts through new finds, keeping its recoverable reserves steady at 259.9 billion barrels, after producing 100 billion barrels, Mr. Alshiha said.

Some of the new capacity will offset natural decline, while the rest will expand its maximum sustained production capacity, the company said.

"Our slate of mega projects also will enable us to maintain spare production capacity of 1.5 million to 2 million barrels a day above forecast production, in keeping with the Kingdom's commitment to keep world markets stable," the company said.

The mega projects include:

● The start up in 2008 of the Nuayyim oil field discovered in 1990 in Central Saudi Arabia south of Riyiadh. It will produce 100,000 b/d.

● An expansion of the Shaybah field in 2009 that will add 250,000 b/d to its current production of 500,000 b/d.

● An expansion of the Yanbu natural gas liquids plants in 2008 to boost volumes to 585,000 b/d, from 390,000 b/d.

● The start-up of the Khurais field, the fourth largest in the world. The field, the largest Saudi Aramco integrated project ever, will produce 1.2-million barrels in 2009.


Prodi: World economy jeopardized by soaring oil prices

Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi warned here on Sunday that world economy is being jeopardized by soaring oil prices.

"The price of crude oil has been doubled in 2007. The world economy is being jeopardized by high oil prices," Prodi said when addressing the opening ceremony of World Energy Congress, which was kicked off here in Rome.


Venezuelans scramble for food amid oil opulence

Venezuelan construction worker Gustavo Arteaga has no trouble finding jobs in this OPEC nation's booming economy, but on a recent Monday morning he skipped work as part of a more complicated search -- for milk.

The 37-year-old father-of-two has for months scrambled to find basic products like cooking oil, beef and milk, despite leftist President Hugo Chavez's social program that promises to provide low-cost groceries to the majority poor.


Gunshots fired outside ExxonMobil site in Nigeria; no injuries

Gunshots were fired outside ExxonMobil Corp.'s main oil export terminal in Nigeria on Monday, officials said. No injuries were reported.

Oil operations at the Qua Iboe terminal in southern Nigeria were not suspended and the situation appeared to be calm later in the day, company spokeswoman Gloria Essien-Danner said.

Earlier, there had been reports that an armed group was advancing on the facility, which has the capacity to handle more than 500,000 barrels daily, making it Nigeria's biggest export terminal.


A fit of peak

The doom-laden vision of a post-oil world put forward in a radical new documentary is as crude as the black stuff that gushes from the ground.


'Clean coal' in Colorado? Costs high, benefits in doubt

To his credit, Gov. Bill Ritter unveiled his climate-action plan last week. But when his plan discussed coal-fired power plants — Colorado's biggest single contribution to the greenhouse-gas problem — the governor fumbled.


Saudi says OPEC to discuss oil output boost

Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, said on Sunday that the exporter group would discuss an increase in oil output at an upcoming meeting in a bid to cool record prices near $100 a barrel.

OPEC heads of state will meet in Riyadh on November 17-18 and consumer countries are urging the group to lift output to avert a supply crunch. The group's oil ministers hold their next formal meeting on December 5 in Abu Dhabi.

"This is premature but we will discuss the issue when we meet," Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters after discussions with his Kuwaiti counterpart.


$100 oil overshadows OPEC summit

The prospect of $100 oil and what OPEC can -- or cannot -- do about it will loom large as leaders of major oil exporters including Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Iran meet in Riyadh this week.

When the OPEC heads of state last met in 2000 oil was at $30, and memories still fresh of a slump to $10 in 1998 that forced them to make painful spending cuts.

Now their state coffers are bulging after years of bumper revenues and it is oil consuming countries' turn to feel the pinch.


$100 Oil May Mean Recession as U.S. Economy Hits `Danger Zone'

Rising fuel prices that businesses and consumers took in stride earlier this year may now be near the point of pushing the weakened U.S. economy into recession.

``We are in a danger zone,'' says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight Inc. and a former Federal Reserve economist. ``It would take two shocks to bring the economy to its knees. We got one shock in the form of the credit crunch. Oil could be that second shock.''


High Oil Prices Not Harming the Economy Yet (audio)

Oil prices are soaring to levels never anticipated – nearly $100 a barrel. While the price of oil affects just about everything that is made, transported, eaten and sold in the United States the cost hasn't had the impact on the economy many people expected.


Free Pemex

Mexico's oil production is at a seven-year low, down 8 percent since 2004. Its reserves have dropped by half since 2002, mostly because it lacks the technology and expertise to explore promising oil fields deep beneath the Gulf of Mexico. Current reserves would last only about nine years.


Nigeria: Oil Firms May Miss 2010 Target

The Federal Government's aspiration to achieve 70 per cent local content in the oil and gas sector by 2010 may not be feasible, following alleged poor compliance with the guidelines governing the Local Content policy by most International Oil Companies (IOCs) operating in the country.


High oil prices fuel winter heat fears

Nowhere in America, it seems, are people more apprehensive about the prospect of a $3-a-gallon winter than in Maine.

Motorists nationwide may grumble about gasoline prices now hovering around $3 for a gallon of regular, but home heating oil that soared this month to $3.09 a gallon — breaking the $3 barrier for the first time — is the focus of concern in Maine.


Ecological disaster fears after Black Sea storm

The bodies of three sailors washed ashore on Monday and 20 more were missing after a ferocious Black Sea storm sank five ships, including an oil tanker, raising environmental fears.


Entire crew held in Calif. oil spill criminal probe

The entire crew of the cargo ship that sideswiped a bridge, causing San Francisco Bay’s worst oil spill in nearly two decades, were being held for questioning as part of a criminal investigation, a Coast Guard official said Sunday.


Ethanol and Biodiesel: Two Very Different Biofuels

The substitution of alternative liquid fuels - ethanol and biodiesel - for petroleum-based gasoline and diesel fuel is a “fountain of youth” dream of clean, renewable resources replacing scarce, dirty ones. Is the dream practical? There are uncertainties because technology and the role of government subsidies and mandates will change. But there are clearly big differences between the two flavors, ethanol and biodiesel.


Toyota’s Green Problem

When Toyota introduced its Prius hybrid car in America seven years ago, Detroit laughed it off. With gas prices at $1.50 a gallon, they argued, no one would buy it. But Dan Becker embraced the little mileage miser. Then head of the Sierra Club's global-warming project, Becker invented an award to give Toyota: the Sierra Club Award for Excellence in Environmental Design. Then he took the Prius on a 50-city promotional tour. Finally, Becker paid Toyota the ultimate compliment; he bought a Prius. Today, Becker is still driving the car, but he's no longer praising Toyota. Instead, he now calls the automaker a "hypocrite" for siding with Detroit in opposition to tougher new gas-mileage laws. "It's embarrassing to have applauded Toyota for the Prius," says Becker, "and now to see them acting so irresponsibly."


Training the solar-tech generation

Seven years ago, the Long Island Power Authority, KeySpan Energy and a coalition of community groups joined a national drive to equip a million homes with "solar roofs" by 2010.

They set an ambitious goal for Long Island -- to have 10,000 homes with rooftop solar power systems by the end of the decade.

Don't count on it. Today they're only a little more than 1/10th of the way toward that goal, with nearly 1,100 home systems installed.


Clean tech: Ottawa's rising star

With news that six of the country's top-10 "emerging" clean technology companies hail from Ottawa, the city will likely become corporate HQ for many more as a genuine cluster takes shape, say experts.


World body warns over ocean 'fertilisation' to fix climate change

Countries gathered under an international accord on maritime pollution have warned against offbeat experiments to tackle climate change by sowing the sea with chemicals to help soak up airborne carbon dioxide (CO2).

Parties to the London Convention and London Protocol declared that they hold authority over such experiments, and "large-scale operations" of this kind "are currently not justified," according to a statement issued on Monday.


Global warming: Oceans could absorb far more CO2, says study

The ocean's plankton can suck up far more airborne carbon dioxide (CO2) than previously realised, although the marine ecoystem may suffer damage if this happens, a new study into global warming says.

The sea has soaked up nearly half of the CO2 that has been emitted by fossil fuels since the start of the Industrial Revolution.


Failure to tackle climate peril 'criminally irresponsible', IPCC told

The Nobel-winning panel of world climate experts gathered here Monday to hammer out a key report as a top UN official warned that political failure to fix global warming would be "criminally irresponsible."

"The effects of climate change are being felt already," Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said.

"Climate change will hit hardest the poorest and most vulnerable countries. Its overall effect, however, will be felt by everyone and will in some cases threaten people's very survival."

I find it ironic that the ipcc says it's 'Criminally Irresponsible' for people not to take on climate change. while at the same time their report was purposfully made so wildly optimistic that many people are coiming out of the wood work using the report to say that the threat is overblown.

;}

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

Don't belive me?
npr recently had on a guy calling himself a 'climate change agnostic' who wrote a book about how governments are making a mistake on how they are battling it. higher leeve's and new sea walls? he said they were a mistake and quotes the ipcc report saying the sea level will only rise a few centimeters. He basically said only higher cafe standards would be the best bet.

Oh, but I do.

I'm agreeing with you exactly.

The Arctic will be ice free by 2015.

New Orleans will have the GOM pounding it's levees.

All infrastructure w/in 18 KM of Any Continent's East Coast should be moved in or up.

Total Crop Failure in Ozzieland. Totally censored.

Tabasco Mexico is still a mess. Totally censored.

7% of Goldman Sachs wealth is fake (SIV's).

Again Totally censored.

"George Bush and Richard Cheney are literally enemies of the state; long before now and by any measure of Constitutional justice they should have been impeached and removed from office.
Abjectly, continuously, and stubbornly refusing to hold them accountable, however, the mainstream Democrats adhere to this criminal president and vice president: nothing they have asked for has been denied, no barriers placed in their way. That is giving them aid and comfort, and that is treason. "

h/t piglipstick

http://www.atlanticfreepress.com/content/view/2816/81/

Kunstler:

"...$50-million Christmas bonuses for trafficking in these inscrutable non-productive financial gimmicks, and were able to acquire fifty-room Easthampton houses, Gulfstream jets, and impressionist paintings.

Of course, the aftermath might not be so pretty for these guys, since the next thing they may acquire could be long prison sentences. If they flee prosecution in their Gulfstream jets, they will not be able to take their Hamptons estates aboard with them. Those who remain my live to see mobs with flaming torches outside their windows, as in the "Frankenstein" movies of their suburban childhoods. But this has yet to play out.

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2007/11/peak-m...
Depression by New Years.

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

I like the part below from today's Kunstler. I recall Sir Greenspan thought derivatives were a good idea because they diffused the risk of the security over a broader spectrum of chumps:

The new "creatively-innovated" financial "derivatives" of recent years are now so divorced from any real activities or product that often the people trafficking in them don't understand what they're supposed to represent.

Greenspan left a toxic legacy by encouraging/employing financial WMD (he also did a good job gathering the necessary cannon fodder using the "Ha-Ha, Gotcha" loans that were sold to the "little people so they could get a piece of the american pie."

7% of Goldman Sachs wealth is fake (SIV's).

And Goldman Sachs is up 4% today on the news. The entire DJ financial index is rocketing today, and that's with "mark to market" day coming on Thursday.

"Bizarre" is putting it mildly.

Bloomberg's top story right now:

"U.S. Stocks Gain, Led by Banks; Citigroup, Wal-Mart, IBM Rise "

Actually, Goldman's valuation might be considerably worse than that, according to a recent article at Financial Armageddon that studied the proportion of assets at the major banks that are classified as "Level 3" assets, "i.e. securities where the lack of market prices allows them to use dubious 'valuation models' and 'unobservable inputs' to value such assets":

Here is the Level 3 assets to equity ratio summary:

Citigroup 105%
Goldman Sachs 185%
Morgan Stanley 251%
Bear Stearns 154%
Lehman Brothers 159%
Merrill Lynch: 38%

Note that it was Merrill who recently took a highly publicized, $8 billion write-off to rid their books of the bad loans. They're the BEST of the bunch.

--C
Energy consultant, writer, blogger www.getreallist.com

Optimists or Plunge Protection Team at work? Below is an interesting study of optimists...

The Downside of Optimism
By Jeanna Bryner, LiveScience Staff Writer

posted: 12 November 2007 07:28 am ET

http://www.livescience.com/health/071112-optimists-lose.html

'Optimism, it turns out, is best in moderation.

'People who have a rosy outlook are more likely than others to make prudent financial decisions, but those who are extreme optimists make riskier investments and save less money than others, a new study finds.

Manju Puri and David Robinson, professors of finance at Duke University in Durham, N.C., compared statistical and self-reported life expectancies to determine people's levels of optimism.'...snip...

'The researchers compared the self-reported life expectancies with statistical ones, grouping participants who expected to live longer than the data predicted as "optimists." Participants who expected to live an average of 20 years longer than is statistically likely were labeled "extreme optimists."

In moderation, optimism can lead to sensible decision making, but extreme optimists “display financial habits and behavior that are generally not considered prudent,” the authors write in the October issue of the Journal of Financial Economics.

The results held across demographic, risk-taking dispositions and health-related issues.

They find that compared with others, optimists:

Work longer hours
Invest in individual stocks
Save more money
Are more likely to pay their credit card balances on time
Believe their income will grow over the next five years
Plan to retire later, or not at all
Are more likely to remarry if divorced
In comparison, extreme optimists:

Work significantly fewer hours
Hold a higher proportion of individual stocks in their portfolios
Are more likely to be day traders
Save less money
Are less likely to pay off their credit card balances on a regular basis
Are more likely to smoke
“The differences between optimists and extreme optimists are remarkable and suggest that over-optimism, like overconfidence, may in fact lead to behaviors that are unwise,” Puri said.'...snip...

I checked http://finance.google.com and got: (bolding mine)

Sector Change % down / up
Basic Materials -3.86%
Capital Goods -1.25%
Conglomerates -0.21%
Cons. Cyclical +0.68%
Cons. Non-Cyclical -0.14%
Energy -3.54%
Financial +0.76%

Healthcare +0.66%
Services -0.27%
Technology -0.67%
Transportation +0.84%
Utilities -0.79%

Stuff like this is puzzling to me. Every supply and demand fundamental I thought I understand flies out the window.

I guess we will be counting our money, cold, in the dark?

Maybe the economists have a way of replacing the fuel tank on our machines with a credit-card slot? We can simply tell our machines that we have money, therefore they will work. If they still refuse to work without fuel, we can always call for a court order from a judge to demand them to comply.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/12/pf/sivy_scarymarket.moneymag/index.htm
Strategies for a scary market
"You'll never know when the exact bottom will be reached in a falling market. But buying high-quality stocks at reasonable prices can pay off no matter what."
----------------
My response: Some of this article is just rubbish, but some of the generalizations seem obvious enough. The talk about oil dropping $20 is astounding, but if they say so, maybe ‘they’ will make it happen? I don’t know how, but that would mean oil goes back to 70s! Is there any way this could happen? Well, ‘recession’ is the other idea kicked around here, and if they ‘say so’, perhaps that’s what happens. So much of this is manipulation, and it is bizarre how disconnected it can get from reality. But I can see the recession problem as huge, and that can translate directly into a lack of confidence in the market. The only thing forcing people into the market is inflation which is not being accurately reported. But somehow, the dollar goes up against world currencies and gold? How? How do they do it? They effectively just released a bunch of funny money and now the dollar is up? On what basis? It makes no sense to me.

I suspect that this week will be really weird. I think we’re seeing signs of some sort of manipulation that makes the price of oil go down & dollar up this week, barring more storms and pipeline explosions which they still haven’t recovered from in the last round! Once again, my short term reading and trying to sort this out has me returning to what Rapier said as the best explanation for ‘real’ contrary trends, but what I’m wondering about are the manipulations that are behind the scenes and the statements (like the latest from Aramaco) that are unverifiable. If Aramaco claims they are boosting their production from 8 to 12, in the short run their recent claims affect these markets. But can they do that? It goes against all the analysis by Simmons, ASPO, EWG, etc.

The elites have an interest to keep the oil at ‘infinite’ supply, no problems ahead, and lying works in the short run. Eventually, this makes problems worse, that’s the seesaw effect. We can expect extreme volatility as they play this game of hype v. reality.

Re-reading the article above, it just seems like the claims about oil not being at ‘fair market’ are rubbish as is the claim that there is no inflation. Then again, ‘if they say so,’ perhaps they make it so? This is the surreal world of this economy.

Steady as she goes , mate. This is a very, very common market manipulation. Basically, they are shaking out what they call "the weak sisters". You'll find that the traders who do not have a true faith in their decisions will bail out on just such a minor momentum change.
Keep in mind that if a stock rallies forever, it also becomes a victim of a bubble. Be happy that oil is establishing a new basis from which to advance. Likewise gold, etc.

shargash, speaking of the accounting changes mentioned in the comments at the end of Kunstler's article, I visited the links regarding those changes.

I was sufficiently concerned that I called a relative who is an accountant in the employ of one of the US states. Listening to her was like reading an article from Daily Reckoning or Financial Sense; without any prompting from me she described some of the state's investments as "garbage", used the phrase "blow up", and concluded with "it's not good".

She's concerned about ever receiving her pension.

Now I'm scared.

PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami

If you are not right now the right age for a pension, then more likely then not you are not going to get one.

Watch Paris tonite for previews of coming attractions.

Sarkozy wants to Americanize pensions.

And a German strike has stopped 700 trains, last I heard.

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

Huh, very interesting....

http://www.planetsave.com/blog/2007/11/10/safe-inexpensive-hydrogen-fuel...

SAFE, Inexpensive Hydrogen Fuel For Your Car?

His process extracts hydrogen from water via what he calls plasmatic induction, a form of electrolysis, using electricty to zap water in a small reservoir tank which releases hydrogen bubbles. The bubbles, of course, become the fuel, a never-ending source as long as drinking water is in the small reserve tank. It’s a bit more complicated than that, he uses reserve batteries and solar cells along with non-radioactive carbon rods in the system. Hunt claims one fill-up of rods will power a vehicle for a year-and-a-half; the emissions, of course, are water vapor.
Hunt claims to have a lobbyist in Washington, D.C. and what he called “a couple of pending contracts.” Two major universities are testing the process and he said GM was ready to license his system right now.

I wonder: Could some one define Zap for me.
Haven't seen the word since Batman.

Yawn.

This is simple electrolysis of water by electricity. It is FAR more efficient just to use the electricity to drive the car via electric motors. Talk of powering the car for a year and a half using a few carbon rods is pure hogwash. It probably means the carbon rods are the electrodes and need replacing every 30,000 miles.

Only the most scientifically illiterate will be taken in by this, and that certainly doesn't include GM.

Ahh...what the hell. No point watching the beginning of economic armageddon.

TAD, I am a natural sceptic when it comes to hydrogen power.

I need a little hope this morning...so here's hoping this guy is a descendant of the Wright bros.

PeakTO, the guy is more likely a descendant of the Wrong Brothers...They ran a very lucrative tent revival/snake oil sales operation out of a wagon train during the 1870s-1890s on the western frontier. It is rumored that they lost their fortune investing in electric car stocks around 1908, but later made a comeback when elected senators representing the auto manufacturing state...long winded sarconol...

But I need a little hope...trying to force myself back into denial for a day or two...k.

The next few weeks are going to be very volatile, confusing and ugly.

Damn...where did I put my blue pill? Can I get a refund on my Red pill?

Morpheus warns Neo "Remember, all I'm offering is the truth. Nothing more."

Sure...but no one told me the truth was so damned dire.

It's not the blue pill you need to eat.

Take a bite of the mushroom like Alice, and shrink down (ELP?) in order to fit through the bottleneck.

Why do you post this foolishness here?

Hydrogen when fed to a fusion reactor, the building of which we have not mastered yet, would be a source of fuel. Any other use of hydrogen is just a way to avoid putting batteries in vehicles and is subject to the same losses that charging a battery would be.

Slapping a funny, techie sounding label on electrolysis does not make it an energy source.

And you expect a response? The only time I've seen TheAntiDoomer bother to respond is to questions that have nothing to do with energy issues.

is subject to the same losses that charging a battery would be.

No, I'd say Hydrogen is worse. Batteries don't loose 5% a day (like Hydrogen is alledged to do from leakage.)

http://www.tinaja.com/h2gas01.asp

Well, as soon as I secure startup financing for my perpetual motion device, we will have unlimited pollution free energy. As soon as I can secure $100 million in financing, I will be ready to leave the country. . . ignore that . . . I meant that we will be ready to start manufacturing.

Here in NZ we have a mechanical engineer/senior lecturer who worked in the States for several years as part of a group who were working out the logistics of a hydrogen economy. She flatly states that it cannot work, and that they were kidding themselves and denying contrary data, because they were so keen for it to be possible... I'm sure there are plenty of "experts" and those seeking financial grants who are still in that same boat.

"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein

Would you PLEASE go read some physics primers before posting this ever-so-hopeful crap? You MUST add energy to release the hydrogen, it can never be done for "free". You put in energy to release the free hydrogen, and get it back when you burn it, with conversion losses at every step so that you can never use all of the energy to do the work you wanted to. It's just the way the universe works, no matter how much you might want it to be different.

Reminds me of the conversations I used to have with friends who bought expensive 1500W electric heaters, while I bought the cheapest ones I could find - and they would say "but mine is more efficient"......

Isn't water vapor a greenhouse gas?

Clint